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Alfredo Brown
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Donut Guy
Morning Zoe. Got donuts.
Jeffrey
Jeff Bridges, why are you still living above our garage?
Donut Guy
Well, I dig the mattress and I want to be in a T mobile commercial like you. T teach me so Bella.
Jeffrey
Oh no, I'm not really prepared. I couldn't possibly at t mobile get the new iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system.
Donut Guy
Wow, impressive. Let me try. T Mobile is the best place to get iPhone 17 Pro because they've got the best network.
Dave Kluge
Nice.
Jeffrey
Jeffrey, you heard them.
Dave Kluge
T Mobile is the best place to get the new iPhone 17 Pro on us with eligible traded in any condition.
Donut Guy
So what are we having for launch?
Jeffrey
Dude, work here is done.
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Alfredo Brown
Had the family sit down and watch weapons with me.
Dave Kluge
Oh, the family, like the kids?
Alfredo Brown
Yeah.
Dave Kluge
Oh, interesting. Is that your first time? No. You saw it already, right?
Alfredo Brown
I saw it already, yeah. Yeah, they, they have really been enjoying Spooky Season. They watched it. Chapters one and two with me. This was different. This is probably a no go.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, that's probably a bit too far for the kids, I think.
Alfredo Brown
Well, so we got to the final like 30, 35 minutes and the kids had to go to bed and so.
Dave Kluge
My wife was like, they didn't even get to see the potato peeler scene.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, no, they didn't see the end. And my wife was like, well I can't go to bed because I need to know how this ends. So let's just finish watching it. It's about like 10 o' clock and so we finished watching it and it is like for those who haven't seen, I'm not gonna spoil anything but it gets like very, very gruesome towards the end the way like some of the things are happening and my wife turns to me, she's like, yeah, they're not, they're not watching this. Like we can just tell them the ending and that'll be that.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I think that's like a. You'd need to be like at least 16 years old probably to see that movie. That's a, that's a, that's a pretty harsh one as far as horror movies go.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I mean I was watching movies like that when I. Not like that. I wasn't into horror movies. But like when did you, when were you watching R rated films? Were you, I mean, 13.
Dave Kluge
I am not the example of when you should and shouldn't be doing things. But yeah, I mean I started like dipping in like, like I was watching rated movies when I was like 8 years old. Like, okay, I was listening. I listened to a lot of like shock music and stuff too at a very young age. But I, I don't want my kids to do that.
Alfredo Brown
That's fair. That's fair. Well, so like I've always kind of been the proponent of like, if kids want to go see something, they're probably going to try to find it anyways. And like a lot of them, the 13 year old knows how to find every single movie illegally. Please don't come to our house. And she watches it on her iPad. She's like streaming movies that are in theaters on her iPad. And so I'm like, kind of like, well, if they're going to watch it anyways, might as well watch it with us where we can answer questions, say things and sort of control the experience a little bit. Fast forward if something's going on. But yeah, dude, this one was, this was, this was. It's also crazy to watch with kids because it's like watching a movie with the Riddler. It's just question after question after question. Why is it called weapons? You'll see. Why did they all go. Go missing at 217? You'll see. Where are all the kids? That's the point of the movie. Stop asking. Week nine of the fantasy football season is here. We're taking a look at some of the best players to buy in your fantasy leagues and they've been. Isn't the time for people to start taking swings in their leagues? Whether, just like we talked about last week, whether you are a team that is near the bottom of the standings, the top of the standings, this is where you want to make big moves. Because you and I talked about this yesterday. The first eight weeks are not the final eight to nine Weeks of the season, everything can change. So this is the time to buy low on some players. And as always, I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Dave Kluge and we're going to go through, we actually brought up a ninth one in the pre show discussions. So nine trade targets to take a look at here. Dave, we have some big names on this one. You're going to start us off with a big name and something interesting that you looked up posted on the social media machine and want to give you your chance to talk about it.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, this morning I couldn't sleep, so I ended up at my desk at like 4:15 this morning and just started running some numbers and I came up with like this very rudimentary formula but just to kind of see like who is scoring a lot of touchdowns, who isn't scoring a lot of touchdowns relative to their fantasy points. So like the, the percentage of fantasy points scored by touchdowns that tells me like who is prime for aggression and who is a guy that you should be buying. And when I ran these numbers, the guy right now who has the fewest percentage of his fantasy points from touchdowns is Justin Jefferson. Just 5.58% of his points this year have come off of touchdowns. I mean this guy, he's seen 63 targets and has only scored one touchdown. That is assuredly going to bounce back at some point. And we know who Justin Jefferson is. He, he's eighth in the league in target chair. He is seventh in the league in yards per route run. He is commanding an elite target chair and he is giving elite efficiency with those targets as they come to him. And I know right now, I think there's an opportunity to actually buy low here because J.J. mcCarthy is coming back at some point. There's a lot of concern and a lot of speculation about JJ McCarthy and the soft benching and the ankle injury and what we saw through the early parts of the season. But I'm using that fear to try to buy lower if I possibly can. On top of that, Justin Jefferson has the best remaining wide receiver schedule of any wide receiver. Well, not just Justin Jefferson, but the Minnesota Vikings have the best wide receiver schedule according to the football guys strength of schedule tool. But not just from now through the end of the season, the best playoff schedule as well. So we've got this really good tool over at football guys where it tells you how many points more or less teams are allowing to that specific position. Week 15, the first week of the fantasy football champ or playoffs go up against Dallas. Dallas is giving up an average of 8.7 more points per game to wide receivers than anybody else. Next week, Giants pretty neutral matchup. Then fantasy championship week. Week 17 goes up against Detroit, who's given 5.8 more points per game to wide receivers. So we're looking at a very talented player who's drawn an elite target chair is efficient with his opportunities, do four touchdown regression and has a great remaining schedule. I know this is like an obvious name, like I'm not telling you, Justin Jefferson is a good player. You probably haven't heard of him, but this is a guy, right? But this is a gu guy that has had a quiet season so far by his standards. And I'd be willing to trade Devonte Adams, AJ Brown, Roma Dunze is probably one of the spiciest names that I'll throw out there. Quinton Judkins, who you know, I, I think is a good buy low candidate. But like that's the type of guy right now that if you can move one of these low end RB1s for Justin Jefferson, that's a move I'm trying to make.
Alfredo Brown
I'll say this, especially with a lot of the big names we're going to say today is in my fantasy leagues. If I'm not clearly in first place and have this amazing lead and have an amazing roster and phenomenal depth and no injury, you know, injuries plaguing my roster, I'd rather go down swinging. I'm trying to take as many big swings as I can rather than sitting there and doing nothing and being mediocre. Let's take all the chances we can. And I think right now with a lot of the bad juju around the Vikings, J.J. mcCarthy know everything that had been going on, Justin Jefferson becomes one of these perfect guys to go after. Because whoever has had Justin Jefferson on their team, their team has been absolutely decimated by it. Throughout the season they've had only a couple of good games where Justin Jefferson is actually worth the draft value that he, the draft cost that he had. So yeah, Dave, I love this one. And I think that's going to be the theme of today's show.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I mean just get talented players who are due for regression. That's kind of what we're doing in the midway point of the season. And at this point we're not reinventing the wheel. We're not like digging super deep in this one. We're looking for the obvious talented players who are just going to do better over the second half than they did over the first half.
Alfredo Brown
And I'll say this one of my guys was a first round pick in fantasy, another one was a second round pick, another one was a third round pick and another one was a fifth round pick. We are going for swings on players that well the value should have been there, but it's not and that's going to lead me into my first trade target that I think we should be buying low on. And it's Ashton Genti who right now, running back 18 on the season despite some just like weird inconsistent usage. Like we go back to last week, Dave and last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, a massive game script thing and mass just like the game just gets away from them. Game just gets away from them. The like we can, we can just fold that one away, file it away for like game that likely doesn't happen again where the team just stops using Ashton Genteel. We're going into the bye week. We come back out that yeah, they've got a couple of tough matchups here, Jacksonville and Denver. But just let's take a whole look at the body of work here. Running back 18 on the season, like I mentioned, seventh in carries per game, which is just, he's, he continues to get that volume. We know that everything is going to be running through him. 9th easiest remaining strength of schedule from week 10 through 17. That's when you're making your stretch of not only trying to make the playoffs but then win in the playoffs. He's got the New York Giants in the championship game. And if there's a guy who, and we talked about the Giants multiple times of being able to get beat on the edges by running backs and if there's a guy who, who has made his way through college football not quite yet in the NFL but on getting these big breakaway runs to the outside, it's Ashton Ginty. So I, I really like that matchup ahead and we do have to be looking ahead to fantasy playoffs just averaging over four yards per carry, which is, you know we, it doesn't tell you the whole story, right? Like I know that's kind of been the litmus test for running backs is can they be above 4 yards per carry, seventh and missed tackles per attempt. Like there's so many things I can data points that I could throw out here that don't really tell you the story for this. It's essentially going to be a bet on the talent. No matter what is happening at the quarterback position, no matter what is happening on this offense, I think the return of Brock Bowers is going to open things up even more. Teams will not be able to stack the box the way they are. We'll see what ends up happening with Jacoby Myers. But yeah, I want to go and I want to make a move for Ashton Ginty here, especially coming out of the buy where this team is going to say, okay, we've got to make the most of our first round pick.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I mean, he's looked good throughout this entire season and a lot of the advanced analytics, the tackle breaking ability, the yards after contact per attempt, he's passing all of that with flying colors. So, like, we know that he is a good running back. It's just been the entire offensive environment right now for the Raiders is concerning. And I think that's why some people might be trying to get out from underneath Ashton Jinzi. But I'm with you. I mean, it's. Sometimes it's just as simple as buying talented players. So, I mean, I'm looking. I still have Ashen Genti. I had a breeze Hall. I had a Bucky Irving. I had a DeAndre Swift ahead of Chase Brown. I mean, I'm, I'm still viewing him as an RB one. I. I think to. To fade him any lower than that would just be foolish.
Alfredo Brown
I mean, we're not far removed from back to back or, excuse me, three straight top 15 running back games from him. I mean, we had an RB1 overall finish in week four, but it's just been, it's been the inconsistencies. It's looking at a week like week three and week seven and saying, okay, that probably lost me my week. And so that's been the most recent taste in the mouth of fantasy owners, is having a performance that loses your week. Then you have a buy where you don' have them anymore. It's been two weeks where you're just like, I just, I don't have value for Ash and Jinty. That's. That's kind of how I'm seeing this.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. Talented player that you can buy for cheap right now. That is the theme of today's show.
Alfredo Brown
Yep. Simple. Simple. All right. Who's your next guy?
Dave Kluge
You're never gonna believe this, but another talented player that you can buy for low that I expect to have a better second half of the season than he had a first half of the season.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah.
Dave Kluge
As Zay Flowers. You know, I talk about this regression modeling that I ran this morning. Justin Jefferson had the highest percent or, I'm sorry, the lowest percentage. And then Zay Flowers was the second fewest fantasy points. He only has one touchdown with 55 targets this year. That's just unbelievable. And now we expect Lamar Jackson to be back, and that's really the big thing here. And because of that, you might not be able to buy low. I think most managers have just been waiting for Lamar Jackson to come back, but very similar to what I said about Justin Jefferson, seventh among wide receivers in target share, eighth among wide receivers in yards per route, run, an elite target chair, elite efficiency and just not scoring touchdowns. I think that's going to change when Lamar Jackson gets back. I mean, this guy had 41 passing touchdowns last year. We know that. We get those explosive plays. We know that Zay Flowers is the clear number one guy here. So looking at my rest of season rankings, some guys that I would happily trade away for Zay Flowers if I could. Chris olave, Brian Thomas Jr, DK Metcalf, all guys right now who are getting a little bit more buzz. And, you know, I, I don't expect them to have quite as good second halves of the season as I'm projecting for Zay Flowers.
Alfredo Brown
You out on a lobby with the Tyler Schuck switch at quarterback?
Dave Kluge
I wouldn't say out, but I would rather take.
Alfredo Brown
You're just more in on Lamar and Flowers, right?
Dave Kluge
Give me 8 targets per game from Lamar Jackson instead of 10 targets per game for Tyler Schuck. So I, I'd expect Chris Alabe probably to have more usage from here through the end of the season, but I think the efficiency more than makes up for that in this Ravens offense. Also, I, I mean, I will say we're. We're not going to speculate too much on trades, but, you know, less than a week until the NFL trade deadline and we're getting it from Schefter, Pelissero, Rapaport. Like, everybody is talking about how the Saints are trying to ship either Chris Alave or Rashid Shahid. So either Chris Olave is landing in a better situation or he's going to see even more targets. So Chris Alave, another guy that maybe is. Is worth a buy in some leagues. Look at that. We said eight, then we added a ninth and now even got a tenth one working in here. Talking about a lobby, you got to.
Alfredo Brown
Keep the odd numbers. We'll figure out one more person to add in here. That's what our good friend Clayton always says here at football, guys go for the odd numbers.
Dave Kluge
I'm gonna give you my name. 46 targets, not a single touchdown yet this year. There's our 11th.
Alfredo Brown
Moving past that. Moving well past that. Next on here, another big name Guy who's been disappointing and for some people was a first round pick for most second round pick Nico Collins, Wide Receiver for the Houston Texans and this is coming off a game where the Texans were very, very good. They looked like a very different team. We got a glimpse of what a good CJ Stroud can look like. Offensive line is figuring it out and a lot of it too is just kind of going back schematically to like what has been successful for CJ Stroud in the past. What has been successful for the Texans in the past. And one thing that was interesting and Hayden winks over underdog fantasy does great work. He mentioned something that I also found watching through the film on NFL Pro and and doing some of the NFL Next Gen insights there. Texans are using a six offensive lineman on a large portion of their plays where they're coming out in two wide receiver sets. And this was a big change for the Texans offense where they allowed a season low 21.4 pressure rate against the 49ers in week eight and that is despite the 49ers blitzing at a season high rate. So that's been the biggest problem with the Houston Texans is can CJ Stroud get time to sit in the pocket and make plays. Nico Collins has had the lowest yards per outrun of his career this year because of the fact that the Texans offense doesn't have time to let plays develop. And that is something new that we are going to be able to see hopefully now going forward once again. This is a big swing. Take the big swings. You got a guy that's coming off of injury, but he's also coming off of, looking at this correctly, a 10 target game just a couple weeks ago prior to the concussion. So there are a lot of matchups that are going to pin the Texans against some good offenses with beatable secondaries. And one thing I think that might be viewed as a negative, but I'm viewing as a positive is Jaden Higgins went out. Good game. Jaylen Noel, good game. Xavier Hutchinson, good game. To me what that does is that that creates ambiguity in that wide receiver room. It doesn't give me a surefire second guy or third guy that I really need to be worried about taking targets away from Nico Collins. What it does is it keeps that group ambiguous and allows Nico Collins to continue to be the lead target earner. So I am willing to make this swing on n Nico Collins.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I I haven't really thought about Nico Collins too much as a buy low candidate, but you do make a a Strong argument there for it. We know he's a good player. I, I think there are going to be some boom bust tendencies just because of how this Texans offense operates right now. But I love that you talk about the, the six lineman. That's something we saw the, the Lions start toying with a couple of years ago. Now we see the Steelers are doing it often, the Lions are doing it. We'll see them like bring out this six tackle and then put him in the backfield and then put him in motion again. Have them kind of like bunched up really fun things with the offensive schemes and formations this year. And yeah, I mean I think that's the best way to make up for a very bad offensive line is just to outnumber them and have six on the field instead of five. And, and the Texans seem to be doing that.
Alfredo Brown
Yep. All right, let's go to the next one on here. We each have given two trade targets that we're looking at. You know what, actually let's do kind of our bonus right here because you mentioned the Lions. Yeah. And fun guy that I wanted to bring up is Jamison Williams and you had a fun personal story on this one because Jameson Williams, I don't think there is has been a lower price, potentially even like in his career. What a crazy way to look at this. From last year preseason to now where we're at with Jameson Williams coming off of a zero reception game and then we've got the wide receiver coach coming out and Detroit Lions coaching staff saying we've got to figure out ways to get Jameson the ball. Like we have not done a good enough job doing that. This has been a very different team this year where Jameson is getting targeted way downfield for the big plays again and not getting simple receptions like he was last year, Dave. So I think both of us would agree he's probably a decent buy low candidate right now.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And you know, I last week when Jameson Williams was on by no, no, no surprise to anybody but a lot of the offenses that I invested very heavily in this off season, the Rams, the Seahawks, the Lions, they were all on by last week. So I was really hurt and through some bye weeks and I started throwing some offers out there for Jameson Williams, just looking for guys that I could get in my starting lineup. And when I saw some of the offers that like I thought I was selling low on Jameson Williams and they were getting like laughed at and denied, then I was like, okay, so Jameson Williams is now a buy because I, I sent out an offer for Jecori, Karoski, Merritt, that got rejected. I sent out an offer for Isaiah Pacheco. That got rejected. I sent out an offer for Stefan Diggs that got rejected. So like I kind of viewed Jameson Williams as more valuable than all those guys and thought that I was like given these other trade partners a favor to help me out to set a lineup during my weeks. And when all of those were getting rejected I was just like, well Jameson Williams probably got him going out to buy if that's how the market is viewing him right now.
Alfredo Brown
It's crazy. And looking at the matchups ahead, Minnesota, Washington, Philly, New York Giants, Dallas, Pittsburgh. These are all very, very beatable secondaries for Jameson Williams and he's got that Week 17 at Minnesota in the dome. You put Jared Goff in a dome in some good weather. Hope it. Oh, doesn't Minnesota have the retractable roof now? Is that, is that like I'm not up to date on my Minnesota architecture?
Dave Kluge
If they did, it would be closed in December.
Alfredo Brown
They're crazy enough to open it. They're crazy enough to open.
Dave Kluge
But also I want to say I saw a quote from Dan Campbell just a couple of days ago where he was like very heavy handed in talking about how you know, spent the bi week review and film and like we just need to get. And it was weird. He never actually like said Jameson Williams name specifically but was like very clearly talking about Jameson Williams. You know we've got these big play speed receivers that just aren't getting involved and want to make a very concerted effort to get them the ball after the buy.
Alfredo Brown
Looking at you, Khalif Raymond, right as.
Dave Kluge
Quintess Cephas still on the lineup. No, I mean they're talking about Jameson Williams and, and we know this is a good player. I mean he was the wide receiver 19 on a PER game basis last year in fantasy football. And then they give him $80 million and his target share just falls off a CL. That to me doesn't make any sense. Like this is a young talented player. They're going to get him involved. That you don't pay a guy $80 million just to run clear out routes for a modern St. Brown. That that's not what's happening here.
Alfredo Brown
And I gotta be honest with the audience here. Like there's nothing we can tell you from a statistical standpoint. Yes. Like it just needs the touchdowns to break the right way. Like no, there hasn't even been the target yet. Trust me bro. Source, I made it up. Like just look, look at the depth chart. Look at the body of work from Jameson Williams. Look at the off the. For the Detroit Lions. I'm looking at the wide receivers, Dave. And like, I just needed that reminder. I'm like, who else?
Dave Kluge
When you.
Alfredo Brown
When you made the joke about Quintus, it's Isaac Tislaw. Who Fun player hasn't turned into anything. Khalif Raymond and Dominic Lovett. That's it. Like, it's a monor. Saint Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta. These are the guys catching passes. Jameer Gibbs catching passes as well. Like, this is still a very condensed route tree. And if the Lions are able to get their offense back on track and actually make Jameson Williams a concerted part of their offense, this is one of the easiest buys because, like, people just don't even want him. Go out and trade him. Trade anything for Jameson Williams. Adam, as your wide receiver. 4 as a fun flex play on weeks where you're like, well, I'm projected to lose by 30 points. Why wouldn't you want this?
Dave Kluge
And I guess if I have to make some statistical argument, he's 24 years old, like, still very much so. On the upswing of his career. Sure. And he's averaging 25 yards per game less than he did last year. His touchdown volume is expected to be less than half of what it was last year. So this is just like simple regression. Like, players don't just fall off the age cliff at 24 years old. Like, this is a small sample size to me. It's almost like lad McConkey, where, like, the first four or five weeks of the season, everyone was panicking about lad McConkey and then he just, like, turned into lad McConkey and we're like, oh, yeah, that was silly. Like, that was just a little blip on. On the. The radar of his career. That's kind of what I'm looking at for this first half of the season with Jameson Williams. Like, it would be insane for him to continue producing like this.
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Alfredo Brown
All right, well you and I each have two more players to talk about here. So Dave, hit us with your third trade target you're looking to buy low on.
Dave Kluge
This might be my biggest buy low. And funny enough, I know when I was talking about Justin Jefferson I was like I traded this guy for Justin Jefferson. That doesn't mean that he's not a buy low. There's just a tears of difference here. Quinton Judkins is a guy that I'm trying to trade for right now. I think there's just so many reasons why you can buy low right now. One, he's coming off a down game. He is injured dealing with an AC joint sprain and he's on by. So I think a lot of people right now are anxious to move a guy like this. That's not going to do anything for him this week. Our Adam Hutchison doesn't even expect him to be back in a week 11. So our Adam Hutchison is saying that a week 12 return he said of running backs who have suffered an AC joint sprain. Over 70% of them miss at least two games. So not just the buy but probably missing some time after that as well. So this is a buy reserved for your teams that are sitting in first, second, third place. Like if you're a last place team, don't go out and trade for Quinn John Judkins because you probably aren't going to make the playoffs after making that move. But he has the easiest running back schedule remaining. And again, just like with Justin Jefferson, it's not just the overall schedule, it's that playoff schedule that I get really excited about. In week 15, Chicago is averaging or given up an average of four points per game more than other Teams, we got Buffalo, who's given up an average of 4.7 more points per game to running backs, and then Pittsburgh giving an average of 1.7 more points per game to running backs. So that's three plus matchups through the fantasy playoffs. And sure, you know, he might miss a handful of games, he might not be 100 when he does return, but I'm guessing that by week 15 he should be near 100 and has three really nice matchups here. So some guys that I would trade for Quinn, John Judkins right now, Travis Etienne, Tyrone Tracy, Chase Brown, Jakory Crosby, Merritt, Brian Thomas Jr. That's a trade that I sent out this morning and been rejected, unfortunately. But I tried Marvin Harrison Jr. Quentin Johnston, I mean, those are some, some big names that I'm trying to trade to get Quintean Judkins on my team. But again, this is only reserved for your teams that are doing well right now. If you're sitting, you know, bottom of the barrel in your league, you know, below.500, probably not trying to trade for Quinn, Sean Judkins, but if you're looking for that hammer that can help you win a league late in the year, Quinton Judkins is a fantastic target.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I think the struggle with that is not that he's going to be, he's a bad player or like, whatever. I think it's gonna be extremely hard to get Quinshawn Jud, like, even after, you know, whatever. It's just there's a mythos that, that gathers around these players. Whoever drafted them was like, I made the right call. I made it late in my draft. I did this. They will be one in seven. Stare you in the face and be like, but I have Quinshawn Judkins. You bleep.
Dave Kluge
I mean, that's exactly what I was told today. Hey, of course running backs don't grow on trees. And I'm like, like, okay, but I've given you workers. Like, I'm giving you wide receivers. Yeah, I mean, it's, it is tough. I mean, like the, the, the, the idea of making a trade is much more easier than the reality of pulling off a trade. But like Brian Thomas Jr. He's still got some buzz. Quenton Johnson, I think a lot of people are hoping that he can just heal up and return to who he was early in the season. I think you could do that. Tyrone Tracy. Right now, you know, we're expecting big things from Tyrone Tracy. With Cam Scaboo out for the year, chasing package, he's Been hot for the last couple of weeks.
Alfredo Brown
Would you package Tracy and let's, let's, I mean let's just go all in, right? If like if you're going all in for a player like Judkins, let's say Tracy and Brian Thomas Jr. For Quinshawn Judkins, it's rich.
Dave Kluge
That's probably a little too much. Yeah, I think that's where I draw the line. Just because I mean like the difference between Tracy and Judkins is probably what like 3 to 4 points per game if we're looking at season long projections here. Quinjo Judkins is also going to miss a couple of weeks and Brian Thomas Jr. I mean I know I talked about him as a cell last week but his value has just continued to crater as we're getting all this hype about Travis Hunter right now that I mean like Travis Hunter, I'm sorry, Brian Thomas Jr. Like his ceiling is still being a top 10 wide receiver at the end of the day and he does have a dangerous floor there but man, I'd feel really dumb if I traded Brian Thomas Jr. Away. He returns to being a wide receiver one and then I'm just sitting here with an injured Quinn Sean Judkins. So I think you know, if I, if it's just Brian Thomas Jr. I do it. But I think Brian Thomas Jr. And Tyrone Tracy that, that's giving up a of lot lot. You know.
Alfredo Brown
And sometimes I really don't mind losing these trades or perceived losing them for what you mentioned there. It's like what's going to be the difference between Tyrone Tracy and Quinshon Judkins? 3 to 4 fantasy points per game. Sometimes like that is the difference maker in these matchups. And when I don't know and I'm saying like man, I can't really trust Brian Thomas Jr. It's been so hit or miss I can actually get rid of some of these volatile players and get someone like Quin Sean Judkins, I'm not saying go out and make this trade. I'm just like this is like a little game theory talk. I think that where I actually more often than not I get willing to perceived lose on these trades because it can give me some semblance of and we always talk against this in the pre draft but consistency now that we are in season and we know who these players are, I've got a guy I could start every single week.
Dave Kluge
It's funny too, just like you know, since you brought up the preseason, I'll just like we are so confident about everything in the preseason. Like, I can't believe you draft this player ahead of this player. And I was just looking through ADP the other day. Remember we were talking about Rashi Rice. You and I were both saying, like, this guy should be a round four pick. Have you looked back at what round four of fantasy drafts was last year?
Alfredo Brown
Not great.
Dave Kluge
Joe Burrow, Garrett Wilson, Alvin Camara, George Kittle, Marvin Harrison, Jalen Hurts, Mike Evans, Kenneth Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Treveon henderson, James Cook, D.J. moore. I mean, some of it's been injury related, but like I take Raji Rice over all of those guys with the benefit of hindsight. Like, we are so confident in the preseason that everybody's gonna hit and that we've got our rankings perfect. And then it takes half a season to look back and be like, what were we doing in round four, dude?
Alfredo Brown
Somewhere there's somebody with George Pickens, Emeka Abuca, Chris Olave and Rashi Rice and they're just like, I am wealthy. Yes, I am a fantasy deity at this point. All right, I believe it's my turn now because I got one left. I'm going with Ricky Pearsall here, guy who we talked a lot about in the pre draft process and Dave prior to his injury. Wide receiver 16 in fantasy, everything was going along as scheduled. Then the injury happens and the injury was said to have taken four to five weeks to recover. We're there and Ricky Pearsall was asked yesterday, we're recording this Wednesday at 12. This is 12:11pm Eastern Time. So if a report comes out after, I am sorry, but yesterday Kyle Shanahan spoke and said we hope to see Ricky Pearsall out at practice. So it's west coast time. We'll see if he is out there. He could be making his return this week. And I'm looking back too. Wide receiver 17 in usage rates. He had a deep threat role that was very much intact in this offense. Two games with 100 plus yards. He had one game with I believe was 11 targets. Like, this is a guy who took over as the wide receiver one on this team. Now even with George Kittle back back. I don't think that takes anything away from Ricky Pearsall because Juwan Jennings hasn't really been able to take hold of the wide receiver room. We've seen how good Kendrick Bourne can be put Ricky Piersoll back into his role. All of a sudden we're talking about a guy who's an immediate fantasy starter, A wide receiver two weekend and week out this San Francisco 49ers offensive line has been struggling to run block. That's led to a higher passing rate even with Mac Jones being out there on the field. I do see this as a guy who can continue to come back in, lead the team in targets once he's healthy. Yes. Even with George Kittle on the field, Brandon Ayuk's practice window has still not opened up. And when, when he was asked about it, Kyle Shanahan was like, yeah, no, we're not trying to open that up right now. Like, I'd be surprised if it was opened up anytime soon. It sounds like we're looking another five, six weeks before Brandon Ayuk is out there on the field. So, yeah, talked about swings, talked about risks. Yes, there is the MCL recovery that Ricky Pierce hall is going through, but I'm willing to take this swing. Swing.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And I mean, I love Ricky Pearsall. You know this. Like, you and I talked about Ricky Pearsall all preseason and loved what I saw at the beginning of the year, like six in the league still in receiving yards per game. Like, he looked awesome. I think this is one that I don't know if I'm really trying to buy here, though, just because, like, so much of this offense has changed. I feel like he kind of missed the window. Like, had he been healthy for the first six weeks or something, he could have, like, really entrenched himself as the wide receiver one. But I do have fear that, that.
Alfredo Brown
When you say the offense has changed. Yeah.
Dave Kluge
Juwan Jennings getting healthier by the week. George Kittle back out there, I mean, he looked okay last week. George Kittle did. And Juwan Jennings, I mean, I don't know if he's going to be 100 this week, but, like, just getting healthier with every given week or, or so we assume. Kendrick Bourne kind of had this weird breakout. Brandon Ayuk now is going to be back late in the year, and now we've got Brock Purdy dealing with a toe injury as well. So I, I, you know, I, in theory, I want to buy Ricky Pierce hall because I, I just believe in the talent. And I guess, you know, as I'm talking myself into it, like, everybody probably has these same concerns about Ricky Pearsall. So I guess it just comes down to, like, what the cost is.
Alfredo Brown
Like, it's perception.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. Yeah. So I guess, like, let me think about it right now, because what if.
Alfredo Brown
Ricky Pearsall does the Brian Thomas thing from last year, if Brock Purdy is not able to Come back and you've got Mac Jones with Ricky Piersol and Ricky Pierce all retains this deep threat role that he had. We're talking about a guy who turns into a Brian Thomas. Yeah, that's, that's, that's kind of how I'm looking at it.
Dave Kluge
So I think it just again, comes down to, like, the cost. So, like, I'm looking at my rest of season rankings and like, Brian Thomas Jr. Michael Pittman, Marvin Harrison, probably not moving those guys for Ricky Pierce. All. I think that's probably a little bit too rich. But if I could move off of a Keenan Allen or a Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, who we talked about as a buy, like, I would trade Jameson Williams away for Ricky Pierce, all that's a move that I think I'd be comfortable making.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I think. I don't know. I don't think anyone's doing that. You just, you were just telling me the story now where it's like, nobody wanted Jameson Williams in your league.
Dave Kluge
Right? Right.
Alfredo Brown
That's the thing. It's like, I don't, I don't think anyone's making that. I do think, like, yeah, it's probably going to be one of these where you're going to have to trade someone. I, I probably should have had, like, some targets ready to go. Like, honestly, Cortland Sutton.
Dave Kluge
Like, would you prefer.
Alfredo Brown
That was the name I was just gonna say. I was just gonna say Courtland Sutton. But say, honestly, you. I'd trade Cortland Sutton for Ricky Pierce hall.
Dave Kluge
At this point, I have him one spot ahead in my rankings. But, like, again, like, at that point, it's so close that it's like a personal preference thing. Like, if you prefer Cortland Sutton, I've got right now, I've got Ricky Pierce all bunched in a tier with Cortland Sutton, Devonta Smith and Travis Hunter. So that's kind of where I'm viewing Pearsall rest of season. So, yeah, I think it just comes down to cost, like, if you can get him for cheap. And the thing is, like, Ricky Pierce all, like, he had. Had been steamed all the way up into, like, rounds four and five of fantasy drafts right now. So people that drafted him might be hurting a little bit and you might be able to get him for. For cheap right now if that guy is hurting, you know, sitting below.500. So I think it's worth it. It just comes down. I, I have altered my expectations slightly where I was hoping he could be like a top 10 guy. Now I'm Kind of hoping he can be more of a wide receiver too when he comes back.
Alfredo Brown
I think what you can do too, is what I've come to find is people always want to hold on to running backs. So, like, I find that not a lot of people actually trade away their running backs, but when you offer one up, up, even a bad one, they're like, oh yeah, that's starting running back in the NFL. Tony Pollard is a guy I think, like you could just ship away. And people still look at it as starting running back.
Dave Kluge
Dave, somebody offered me last week and they, they pulled it off the table before officially offering it. Texted me and said, hey, would you give me Kyron Williams for Rashi Rice? And I was like, yeah, dude, send the offer. And then he was like, I thought about it and I changed my mind. And I'm like, see? Yeah, I mean like, yeah. And that's like a top three wide receiver for a low end RB1.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, dude. Like I'm saying, like, there's, there's, there's sort of a running back premium that people love. So like I. Yeah. J.K. dobbins, I think is another interesting one here. Chuba Hubbard, probably. Last chance to sell on him. There's a couple of these names that are quote, starting running backs in the NFL right now. Not that J.K. dobbins has been bad. That's. That was not meant to insinuate that. All right, last players for each of us. Dave, go ahead, give us your last trade target.
Dave Kluge
Just another prime regression candidate here. Among running backs with 100 plus touches, only Alvin Camara has fewer points from touchdowns than Jalen Warren does. I mean, he has one touchdown on 102 touches. This just isn't going to last. He's going to start scoring touchdowns. This guy is one of the few workhorses in the NFL. Top 20 in almost every single opportunity metric. But it's not just the opportunity, it's also the efficiency. He's fourth in receiving yards per game behind only Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Bucky Irving. And his rushing efficiency has also been great. He's fifth in the league in yards per touch. He's seventh in rushing EPA among all running backs. Then he's also seeing light boxes. He's seen the fifth fewest of average defenders in the box of any running back out there. On top of that, he also has the sixth best remaining running back schedule. So I know I'm throwing a lot of numbers out at you, but this is a guy who is getting a lot of touches Efficient with his touches and shocker, has a good second half of the season schedule. So Jalen Warren, another guy that I'm trying to trade for right now, I would gladly trade away Alvin Camara, Rico Dowdle right now, who's been red hot, Omarion Hampton, who, like, yeah, he'll come back from IR at some point, but like, give me the guy who's healthy and playing now over Hampton Cortland, Sutton, Devonta Smith, Travis hunter, Brian Thomas Jr. These are all guys that I'd happily trade away for Jalen Warren right now.
Alfredo Brown
Jalen Warren has a really nice schedule coming.
Dave Kluge
Yeah.
Alfredo Brown
And I think we can throw out all of the worries of Caleb Johnson, Kenneth Gainwell. Honestly, even at this point, that's a.
Dave Kluge
Name I haven't heard in a long time.
Alfredo Brown
I think even like, dude, the, the worries of like, oh, will they trade for another wide receiver? Cool. Open the offense up a little bit more, give Jalen Warren even more space to run. Like, it just, just. I, I mean, maybe, maybe we're being foolish, but I don't see a world here where things get worse for Jalen Warren unless there's just injury or Aaron Rodgers totally falls apart.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And, and, and that's where I am too. I mean, this guy's always been efficient. Like, usually when we see these like, very efficient third down backs in a growing role, we almost always see the efficiency start to taper off and it's just not happening for Jalen Warren. Like, this to me, feels very much like Tony Pollard when Tony Pollard was the backup to Ezekiel Elliott. And then Ezekiel Elliott got pushed out of the picture and we were like, all right, well, Tony Pollard's lead back now, but no way can he maintain that efficiency. Guess what? He did. He maintained the efficiency. And now with Jalen Warren, like we've been waiting for years for Najee Harris to be out of the picture and we said, well, surely the efficiency is going to dip now that he's on a bigger workload. And it's not. He's still the efficient tackle breaking breakaway run machine that he's been throughout his entire career. He's just doing it on three times the workload now. So, yeah, this is just a better offense. I think the Steelers have looked better over the last few weeks than they did earlier in the year. Jalen is efficient, he's getting touches and he's got a nice schedule. Again, fits in perfectly with the theme of all the guys that we are talking about on today's show.
Alfredo Brown
Well, let's keep the theme going. So I've got T. Higgins, wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. And there is a. There's just a. Is this a word? A funus. A funness.
Dave Kluge
Funness, sure.
Alfredo Brown
Fun.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. We're podcasters. We're allowed to make up words.
Alfredo Brown
We can make it a word. Yeah. We have a mic. You don't. Funness. Yeah. T. Higgins, wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. For me, it's. It's pretty simple. One, it's a talented player. It's an offense that has learned how to move the ball again. Luck did not break his way this past week, but under Joe Flacco, it has been a different offense. And first start for Joe Flacco, we're looking at 10 targets. Second start for Joe Flacco, we'RE looking at two targets. Like things just simply did not break his way in that matchup. But I also just want to look at the recent change for T. Higgins. Things have started to click a little more. Weeks 1 through 5, 6.9 half PPR points per game. Weeks 6 through 8 here, 12.7 half PPR points per game. Like, we are looking at a different player throughout these week now. Does that mean it's going to continue to elevate up? No. But the thing is, is that you're seeing glimpses of what this guy in the offense can be with Joe Flacco and eventually Joe Burrow could and should be back. But also we're coming off of this game. That was an absolute dud. Right. We're looking at. Just want to confirm here, checks notes. One reception. Right. Like I, I get it, I get it. There's a touchdown, but there's one reception. So I'm sure there's someone in your league that's saying, ah, it's all just been the touchdowns that are here. That that's what's holding everything up. I want to look at this differently. Flacco is pushing 38 plus attempts per game. There's been a big pass volume resurgence for this offense. The fact that the running game is even efficient now, like Chase Brown is highly efficient on the ground. There are so many things that definitely defenses have to plan for with Cincinnati. And their defense is horrendous, allowing Justin Fields and the jets to be able to pass and score the way they did, we know that the Bengals are going to continue to have to pass. So with this many opportunities with a player of this talent and a competent quarterback. Yeah. I want to buy before we start to see the T. Higgins of old here on the field.
American Giant Advertisement Voice
Yeah.
Dave Kluge
And this is another One that like, I'm, I'm going to push back ever so slightly just because like, T. Higgins also, like, a lot of his production this year has come from touchdowns. Looking right now 28.4%. That's like, right with most in the league, right? Yeah. And, and, and he does like, he is a touchdown, big play machine. But man, this is just like, it's wild what we're seeing from Joe Flacco right now. Jamar Chase has pulled over 50 of the team targets since Joe Flacco has taken over. So I think there could be opportunities here down the road. The big thing here, do you think.
Alfredo Brown
That retains, like, do you think that stays where it is? Like, I know it's obviously Jamar Chase is an incredible player, but don't we think there's some sort of regression to the mean in terms of this, this target range?
Dave Kluge
I mean, he's on pace right now for like 360 targets this year. I don't expect that to maintain, but I think like 35 to 40% target share, unheard of. Like, we never see anybody hit those numbers. It wouldn't surprise me if Jamar Chase does finish the year with that target share from Joe Flacco. And I think the, the big thing here is like buying low on T. Higgins because I think what you said, like the one catch, I think a lot of people are trying to say, like, oh, this is my chance, like, I can finally get out from T. Higgins, who has been such a disappointing pick this, and maybe just like sending a trade off or out there they might be like, oh, this sucker, like, he just sees the points, doesn't realize that he only had one catch last week. So I think you might be able to get him for like, really, really low. So again, like, it all comes down to cost here. Stefan Diggs, Juwan Jennings, Terry McLaurin, Wandale Robinson, those are all guys that I'd happily trade away for T. Higgins. But do you think that's enough to get the deal done?
Alfredo Brown
I don't. I. So one thing that happens to a lot with fantasy is we always bring up same position players. And that rarely happens in fantasy where you're just like, okay, cool, I'll swap for the same receiver and take a chance on this guy that I already like, I'm already taking chances every week with this position. Oftentimes it's a lot of like, I need wide receiver for running back, back and forth. So what about this?
Dave Kluge
What about Woody Marks, Tyler Algier, Tony Pollard? Those are all guys that I. That's kind of where my line would be. Right.
Alfredo Brown
I'm going higher. Ken Walker for T. Higgins.
Dave Kluge
Oh, no, I, I don't think I can get there. I think I'd prefer Ken Walker.
Alfredo Brown
Ken Walker.
Dave Kluge
And I know we had like a big Ken Walker talk last week. Like I'm still holding on to my Seattle running back backs just in case one of them goes down. The other would possess league winning upside. So I think that's why I'm holding on to Ken Walker.
Alfredo Brown
Alvin Camara.
Dave Kluge
I think I'd still prefer Alvin Camara to T. Higgins.
Alfredo Brown
I'm trading Stevenson.
Dave Kluge
I'm holding Ramadre Stevenson.
Alfredo Brown
Trading away or Madre Stevenson.
Dave Kluge
I think like, like for me, Isaiah Pacheco, you know, dealing with the injury. Now if you could do that, I would. But like, like I'd prefer Taj Spears, J.K. dobbins, the two T. Higgins right now.
Alfredo Brown
All right, well, that's a wet fart of a way for us to end the show. But it's week nine, folks. Welcome to the show.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, well, yeah, we want to throw Jerry Judy in there too. As we. No, no, no. 00 touchdowns on 54 targets is just. He's got to score a touchdown eventually, right? Or are we just looking at a, at a Deontay Johnson season here?
Alfredo Brown
No, no, he doesn't. No, he doesn't.
Dave Kluge
Speaking of which, Deontay Johnson, did you see he worked out with the Giants yesterday?
Alfredo Brown
The Giants? Yep. Yep.
Dave Kluge
Did it work for any of those other teams? No, no, but it might work for us.
Alfredo Brown
All right, that's going to do it for us here today. We did what, nine, 10, 11. We did a lot of trade targets for you guys to go and take a look at. Hopefully this is helpful for you.
Dave Kluge
We're at an even number. I think we got 12 sneaking Jerry Judy in there. So I don't know who's one more we want to sneak in? Tonta Smith. He doesn't have a lot of touchdowns. Trey Benson. Yeah, Trey Benson is a great way to end the show. I love that one trade for Trey Benson. Yeah, we're not even gonna give analysis.
Alfredo Brown
No analysis. Yeah, we're dudes saying other dudes names. That's. That's what the show has devolved to. Yeah, Finn. Yeah, you're welcome. All right, everybody, we're gonna be back again tomorrow going through our rankings and giving you the must start players for week nine. As always, I want to thank everybody for watching or listening all the way through. For myself, for Dave. We'll see you next time. Adios.
Donut Guy
Morning, Zoe. Got donuts.
Jeffrey
Jeff Bridges, why are you still living above our garage?
Donut Guy
Well, I dig the mattress and I want to be in a T mobile commercial like you teach me. So Dana.
Jeffrey
Oh no, I'm not really prepared. I couldn't possibly at T Mobile get the new iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system.
Donut Guy
Wow, impressive. Let me try. T Mobile is the best place to get iPhone 17 Pro because they've got the best network.
Dave Kluge
Nice.
Jeffrey
Jeffrey.
Dave Kluge
You heard them. T Mobile is the best place to get the new iPhone 17 Pro on us with eligible traded in any condition.
Donut Guy
So what are we having for lunch?
Jeffrey
Dude, my work here is done.
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In this dynamic episode, Alfredo Brown and Dave Kluge dive deep into the heart of fantasy football’s critical midseason stretch: the trade deadline. The focus is on identifying undervalued stars and league-winning breakout candidates to target in trades before it's too late. Their advice spans from perennial first-round picks to under-the-radar youngsters—exploring the intersection of advanced analytics, playoff schedules, and game theory, all delivered in their signature fast-paced, banter-driven style.
“If I'm not clearly in first place … I'd rather go down swinging. I'm trying to take as many big swings as I can rather than doing nothing and being mediocre.” (07:30)
“Just 5.58% of his points this year have come off of touchdowns. … That's assuredly going to bounce back at some point.” (04:57)
“Vikings have the best wide receiver schedule … and the best playoff schedule as well.” (06:10)
“Whoever has had Justin Jefferson on their team, their team has been absolutely decimated... So ... he becomes one of these perfect guys to go after.” (07:30)
“He continues to get that volume. … 9th easiest remaining strength of schedule from week 10 through 17.” (08:40)
“I’m still viewing him as an RB1 … to fade him any lower would be foolish.” (10:55)
“He only has one touchdown with 55 targets this year. That's just unbelievable... seventh among wide receivers in target share, eighth… in yards per route run” (12:20)
“This is a big swing. Take the big swings... He had a 10 target game just a couple weeks ago prior to the concussion.” (14:34)
“Jameson Williams is now a buy. … When all of those [lowball] offers were getting rejected I was just like, well … that's how the market is viewing him right now.” (18:25)
“Players don't just fall off the age cliff at 24 years old. ... it would be insane for him to continue producing like this.” (21:55)
“A buy reserved for your teams that are sitting in first, second, third place.” (24:16)
“That's three plus matchups through the fantasy playoffs.” (25:10)
“This is a guy who took over as the wide receiver one on this team. … talked about risks. Yes, there is the MCL recovery” (29:56)
“Among running backs with 100 plus touches, only Alvin Kamara has fewer points from touchdowns than Jalen Warren does. … He's going to start scoring touchdowns.” (36:18)
“Things have started to click a little more. … we are looking at a different player throughout these week now.” (39:20)
“Jamar Chase has pulled over 50% of the team targets since Joe Flacco has taken over. … it all comes down to cost here.” (41:08)
“I’ve always kind of been the proponent of like, if kids want to go see something, they’re probably going to try to find it anyways…might as well watch it with us where we can answer questions.” (03:03)
"We are so confident in the preseason that everybody’s gonna hit…And then it takes half a season to look back and be like, what were we doing in round four, dude?" (29:08)
“We can make it a word. Yeah. We have a mic. You don’t. Funness.” (41:23)
| Player | Position/Team | Rationale | |---------------------|------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Justin Jefferson | WR / Vikings | Elite usage, due for TD regression, best playoff schedule | | Ashton Jeanty | RB / Raiders | Volume back, efficient, favorable playoff stretch | | Zay Flowers | WR / Ravens | High target share + efficiency, TDs coming, Lamar Jackson factor | | Nico Collins | WR / Texans | Alpha WR, OL improving, big swings, post-injury buy | | Jamison Williams | WR / Lions | Buy-low, post-bye volume hints, explosive profile, easy playoff matchups | | Quinshon Judkins | RB / Colts | Out but ideal playoff schedule, buy for playoff locks | | Ricky Pearsall | WR / 49ers | High usage before injury, WR1 upside if healthy, minimal competition | | Jalen Warren | RB / Steelers | Workhorse role, highly efficient, TD luck bound to swing | | Tee Higgins | WR / Bengals | Talented, offense rebounding, easy to get after dud games | | Jerry Jeudy | WR / Broncos | “Due” for touchdown regression/positive swinging luck | | Trey Benson | RB / (Not specified) | Deep league upside, little analysis—just a speculative add |
The episode stays true to Footballguys’ brand—insightful, a bit nerdy, and full of good-natured ribbing. The hosts mix concrete data with fantasy football folklore and joke about their own league offers and experiences. They keep the mood light even when discussing unsexy names or losing trades.
Alfredo and Dave’s core message:
Now is NOT the time for sitting on your hands. Assess your standings, define your path (make-now vs. playoffs), and take swings—especially on players whose underlying usage or talent signals a breakout coinciding with prime playoff matchups. As always, consider roster context, cost, and the difference between preseason hype and midseason reality.
For managers trying to capitalize at the fantasy trade deadline, this episode is a fundamental guide for blending evidence, boldness, and timing.