← Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Week 14 Matchup Previews with Sam Wagman || Fantasy Football 2024
01:13:58
Loading summary
Transcript117 lines
- [00:00]
Dave Kluge
This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash?
- [00:08]
Ad Host/Announcer
Progressive makes it easy to see if.
- [00:10]
Dave Kluge
You could save when you bundle your.
- [00:11]
Sam Wagman
Home and auto policies.
- [00:13]
Ad Host/Announcer
Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates.
- [00:17]
Dave Kluge
Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
- [00:20]
Ad Host/Announcer
Studies show that 100% of everybody in the world wants to curl up indoors and do nothing because it's so darn cold out there. That's why many people are turning to Bombas, who whose pillowy plush slippers and warm merino wool socks have been said to be the most comfortable in the history of feet. Bomba's products have been found to boost coziness by up to 1 million percent. Okay, enough fake statistics. But could Bomba socks and slippers really be the Cure? Go to bombas.com audio and use code audio for 20% off your first purchase. That's B O-M-B-A-S.com and use code audio.
- [00:50]
Dave Kluge
Welcome to another episode of the Launchpad. I'm your host, Dave Kluge. As always joined with a great football guy staffer. And today I have Sam Wagman. Sam is one of our writers over here at Football Guys. You could also check out what he's doing over at Prize Picks. And today we are going to look at some Week 14 matchups, get you ready for the last week of the fantasy football regular season. We're going to talk about some players to start, some players to sit, and maybe even some players that you weren't thinking about starting that you should get into your lineup. Bringing the show back this year has been an absolute pleasure and it would not be possible if you didn't take the time to listen to. If you could please take a minute and just leave a review on Apple Podcasts, let me know what you think about this show, the launchpad, what you'd like to see, what I can do differently to make it a better listening experience for you. Without any further ado, let's go ahead and dive in with Sam Wagman talking about some Week 14 matchups.
- [01:48]
Sam Wagman, welcome to the show. How you doing today?
- [01:50]
Sam Wagman
I'm doing well. I'm doing well. It's, it's week 14. We're, we're @ the, we're at the crowd crux point of the season, right? This is where everything kind of like comes together and we kind of find out who's good, who's bad, you know, who's, who's kind of indifferent to everything and I think there's a lot of good games this week that can really help us determine who, who is good and who is.
- [02:09]
Dave Kluge
Bad. You know, I think we're there as far as, like fantasy football, knowing who's good and who's bad. I can look at the NFL standings right now, and I still couldn't tell you what teams are good and what teams are bad. Like, the Chiefs look good and they might not make the playoffs, and the Bears, they don't look good and they're currently sitting atop the nfc. So, I mean, this has just a very weird season. It feels like everything we thought we knew has just been flipped upside down. But it's been a while since we've had a year like this, and I think it makes more fun. You know, there's just less parody. Like every team is in it right now. We were talking pre show the Bears could end up being the number one seed in the nfc. They could also end up missing the playoffs if things don't go their way right now. So just a wild, wild season that we're having so far. But as I always do on the show, I picked what I think are some of the most intriguing games of the week. And I've got some questions that we're going to look at through a fantasy football lens here. First one, I want to talk about Bengals at Bills. I don't think anybody expected either of these teams to be in the position that they are as we head into this week. But let's talk about the Bengals backfield. How does Samaj P. Ryan's return impact your outlook for Chase Brown going forward? We saw P. Ryan back in the mix last week. Chase Brown still had 100 scrimmage yards, but what are we doing going forward with Chase Brown.
- [03:20]
Sam Wagman
Now? So it's weird because everyone thinks that Chase Brown is going to struggle with P. Ryan back. And I still expect P. Ryan to grab like a healthy share of work like he did in his return. They mostly. They mostly split carries. But where the real disparity kind of comes is in the receiving game. We saw Joe Burrow in 2024 be one of the heaviest checkdown quarterbacks in the league. And I'm not saying they're all going to go to Chase Brown, but we saw him toss seven targets Brown's way in last week's game. The yardage wasn't quite there, but we, we've seen Brown be able to kind of, you know, make some space for himself and really, really kind of play well with the ball in his hand. So I think Chase Brown is still a pretty solid RB1 heading down the stretch here. I'm not too worried about P Rine at this point. I think the Bengals know that if they want to move the ball down the field, Brown is the guy that's going to do it really well for them. And we've kind of seen that with him. You know, he's never going to be the most efficient guy on the ground, but through the air is really where he is really good there. And I think both backs can really coexist in this offense really easily, especially with Burrow at the helm. They got a fun schedule heading down the stretch and I think there's a spot where they can really win out and I think both backs will play a huge role in.
- [04:34]
Dave Kluge
That. Yeah, this week's game is probably their toughest remaining matchup and they need a win here if they want to keep those hopes alive. But you make some good points here and you know, I think if you look at the snap count, you probably think that P. Ryan is much more involved than he actually is. But he comes in on so many role on so many snaps where his sole role is just to pass blocks. He's not running routes, he's not getting handoffs. He's just in there to pass block. You also talk about Chase Brown being the better pass catcher. That's something he talked about this offseason was one of his bigger weaknesses last year and he worked with wide receiver coaches to become a better pass catcher and we're seeing that now. And the last thing I want to say here, if you look just at the box score from last week, it looks like Samaj P. Ryan pushed for like a 6040 split when in reality so much of his work came in garbage time when the Bengals were up 2, 3 scores. So this is absolutely Chase Brown's backfield. He looks like a much better running back than he did early in the season. And I've got him as my RB4 on the week, which is probably a little bit too bullish, but I mean we have seen that when he dominates touches in this backfield, he gives you high end RB1 production. So that's what I'm sticking with. Sticking with this game. Should we have any concerns about starting Joe Burrow or is he just a plug and play QB1.
- [05:41]
Sam Wagman
Now? Yeah, I think he is. We saw it kind of right away. The toe looks good. He was even scrambling a little bit from time to time. Like, you know he's not going to be calling his own number a Ton on those design runs, maybe kind of like what we're used to, but we did see him scramble a couple times. I think he is at a point where he's comfortable moving around the pocket, stepping up to throw. So I think he is right there as a QB one. And, and like I said, Ravens, Dolphins, Bills, down the stretch of the season for the, for the Bengals, these are fantasy friendly defenses that Burrow can attack. You know, presuming that he gets T. Higgins back from his concussion, you have a really good core of fantasy options that the Bengals can use. And I think they're gonna put, they're gonna put some points up there and I think Burrow is going to be a big part of.
- [06:28]
Dave Kluge
That. Yeah. And we're recording this on Thursday. T. Higgins was a full participant in practice today, so we don't know for sure, but typically when a player is able to log a full practice, that means that the next day they come off the concussion protocol. So we'll see how that shakes out. But this just feels so similar to last year where it's just like Bengals are back up against a wall. They have a soft remaining schedule. And we saw last year Joe Burrow just averaging like 30 fantasy points per game down the stretch, won people their leagues and it feels like we're getting league winning Joe Burrow all over again here. So was on waivers in a lot of leagues. We thought his season was over. If you were able to pick him up, congratulations. I mean, like, if you're in one of those positions right now where you drafted Lamar Jackson and he hasn't been playing the way that you expect him to and you were able to get Joe Burrow, like, that's the switch I'm making this week. I am gladly putting Joe Burrow in my lineup ahead of Lamar Jackson. Sticking with this game though, Sam, I want to talk about on the other side of the ball, we've got the Buffalo Bills here. Brandon Cooks, you know, that was not the, the name that we hoped for when they were in the trade market and we were talking about them potentially drafting a wide receiver. And what did they do? They got Brandon Cooks as a free agent late in the year. Do you think he can find a path to fantasy relevance in.
- [07:41]
Sam Wagman
Buffalo? I, I think fantasy relevance is, is a tricky term here because we've, we've seen it, we've seen it all season with this Bills team that is still kind of just that run heavy, you know, unit that we've seen from the past couple years with Joe Brady calling the plays here. I'm not so sure that they're going to use him the way they could. I think he's gonna be, you know, kind of akin to a Josh Palmer or, or maybe even a Keon Coleman down the field, down the field usage. He only had one target in his, in his intro game last week. Dalton Kincaid should be back from his injury. Whether if it's not this week, it's probably next week. So there's a lot of just really, you know, just not dependable pieces on this Bill's passing offense. Outside of Khalil Shakira, there's not really someone that you can trust to get more than, you know, three, four targets a game and really do anything with those targets because Josh Allen isn't passing nearly as much as he's used to as well. So for me, I don't think we see a lot of Cooks in the fantasy box war, but he can be someone, he can be someone that you hope for to get a downfield target and a touchdown. He still has the speed that we've loved seeing from Brandon Cooks over his long career. So outside of that though, I'm not really sure there's a consistent role in this for.
- [09:04]
Dave Kluge
Him. Yeah, I think it's worth the question just because like we haven't seen any wide receiver step up. Like even Khalil Shakir, who has kind of been the nominal wide receiver one there in Buffalo has been so hit or miss Keon Coleman, like if he's not scoring a touchdown, he's giving you three points in your lineup every single week. Josh Palmer has been banged up all year. Like Dalton Kincaid has flashed when healthy, when healthy seems to be never. So I, I feel like it needs to be asked like we saw that one week last year where Amari Cooper had game. But yeah, I'm kind of with you. I think you should be picked up and stashed just in case. But expectations are pretty low. Last question I have about this matchup. Who is the better handcuff stash for James Cook? Do you think it's Ty Johnson or do you think it's Ray Davis? This is cuffing season. We want to get these injury way backs with huge contingent league winning upside. Do you think that's Johnson or Davis in this.
- [09:53]
Sam Wagman
Scenario? I've actually gone back and forth on this today. I do have this as Ray Davis slightly over Ty Johnson, but it's only because Davis seems to have the more consistent role in the rushing game. I think Ty Johnson, when the Bills have chosen to use Ty Johnson in the Passing game, he's lightning quick. He's been, he's made huge gains downfield. There have been plenty of spots where Josh Allen has thrown, you know, true routes to Johnson, but Davis just has more opportunities he returned to. He returns punts. Both them return punts. But we've seen Davis be a little bit more explosive on the punt returns. I think Davis has a much higher rushing forward than Johnson does and it's just going to lead to more consistent touches down the stretch for them. So I do think it's Davis, but this could honestly, this could honestly change depending on who they play and kind of what their, what their game plan looks like on a weekly.
- [10:48]
Dave Kluge
Basis. To be honest, I'm completely with you and, and we see this so often where the guy who looks like he is more involved on a weekly basis. People think, well, that's the guy who's going to see role blow up if the starter has to go down. But I think that Ray Davis is the guy that has the build that could take over the early down work that could handle 20, 25 touches per game. And I don't think Ty Johnson's role would change at all if something were to happen to James Cook. I think he would stay in that role as a pass catching specialist. Well, Ray Davis controlled the workload. So you know, for those people who are out there right now with that extra bench spot looking to shed that wide receiver six or that tight end three from their team. If Ray Davis is available, he makes for a very high upside stash we saw last year in the one opportunity he got as a starter, he had 150 plus scrimmage yards. We know he can do it and we know this. Bill's offensive line has looked much better over the last couple of weeks than they did earlier in the season. Sam, the next game I want to talk about is one that I didn't think we would be talking about this late in the year, the Dolphins and the Jets. But there's a lot to discuss here, starting with two guys that I didn't think we'd be talking about this late in the year. Antonine Mitchell and John Mechi have both come on very strong over the last few weeks. I can't even believe I'm saying this, but who do you prefer this week between Mitchell and.
- [11:59]
Sam Wagman
Mechi? I, I think, I think everyone's been wanting to say John Mechi, wide receiver 1 For so long now, ever since the Alabama days. We've all wanted, we've all wanted to say that, but we've Also wanted to say adonai Mitchell, wide receiver 1 For so long as well. Both, both are very interesting to me because Mechi feels like the more reliable target get in this offense. He's. He had 12 targets or eight targets last week. He looked, he looked really solid the week before. But I think, I think Mitchell is starting to come on here and I think my answer is more tied to the fact that Tyrod Taylor is a little bit more reliable of a passer than Justin Fields once for this offense. And I think he's, he's more willing to take those deep shots. And for that reason, I'm gonna go adnai Mitchell in the spot. He seems more, more boomer bust than Mechi does on a weekly basis. But boomer bust is everything when we're kind of this deep, you know, we're in that kind of wide receiver four flex spot area for these two guys. And I think Mitchell is the kind of guy that you want to rely on down the stretch here. He gives you a much higher upside, maybe a little bit lower of a floor, but the ceiling is, is kind of impossible to ignore when you got Mitchell's speed and the fact that he is really starting to look good in this offense. 90 yards last week for him, so. Or 102 yards actually. So very, very good stat line for him against the Falcons, who had one of the better pass defenses the first, you know, half of the season. So I think, I think it's Mitchell, but again, this is, this is something that's pretty fluid here and I.
- [13:38]
Dave Kluge
Think, you know, a lot of people listening to the show are going to know who Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie are. And a lot of people are just hearing these names for the first time over the last week or so. Both of these were superb prospects coming into the league. And I think, like, if you aren't super tight into the draft community and paying attention to the draft and these college prospects, you might not know John Mechi. Like a lot of people don't know him because he was diagnosed with leukemia in July after the draft. So he didn't even get a chance to go through his rookie season.
- [14:05]
Sam Wagman
Training and had the torn.
- [14:06]
Dave Kluge
Acl. And a torn acl. Exactly. And he was, if you flash back to that national championship winning Alabama team, he was the number two receiver there behind DeVonta Smith. He stepped up his second year and he was the lead receiver at Alabama, then tore his acl, still gets drafted in round two, then is diagnosed with leukemia. By the time he comes back, Nico Collins and Tank Dell have just completely cemented themselves as the top two weapons there in Houston and he was never really able to find his footing. But a great prospect. Adonai Mitchell was a guy that I thought was going to be like a top 15, top 20 pick in the NFL draft. Fell because of some off the field concerns. You know, some people say that it's work ethic, just a little bit of a knucklehead, whatever you want to say. But off the charts athleticism. Of 3,400 wide receivers drafted since 1987, Ed and I, Mitchell's relative athletic score ranks sixth overall. This guy is 6 foot 2, blazing speed, athleticism, explosiveness, everything you want to see. So these are two really, really good prospects that are kind of in a nothing to lose sort of season for the Jets. Where to Rod Taylor is just slinging the ball around and I don't think a lot of people are expecting like these guys that they may not have heard of on a bad jets team, but they are very much so fantasy relevant down the stretch here. Should be rostered in every league in my opinion. And I want to stick with the jets because last week we saw a decent game from Todd Taylor. He gave us the 21 fantasy points. We saw him rushing a little bit more than expected. Is he a legitimate streamer? Especially I'm asking this week because we've got Lamar Jackson injured, we've got Justin Herbert playing on Monday night, potentially unable to play. Is to Rod Taylor somebody that you might want to be looking at as a streamer this.
- [15:41]
Sam Wagman
Week? I absolutely think he's on the radar. He's definitely, you know, in that, in that front to mid tier range of QB2s for me, guys who, guys who can run, guys who can scramble but can still throw the ball around. I mean this is, this is a Jets team that has kind of flown under the radar in terms of their fantasy viability because they had some pieces there. Mason Taylor is still there. Breece hall is still there. I really wish we had Garrett Wilson, but I, I think, I think Taylor's in a good spot here and I think he's kind of flying really under the radar. Dolphins give up the six most fantasy points to quarterbacks, nearly 25 rushing yards per game to the position as well. So I think this is a good spot for Taylor. I, if I was, if I was doing rankings, I would have him ranked right around, right around the, the 16 to 18.
- [16:23]
Dave Kluge
Range. Yeah. And I've got him significantly higher than most people right now. I've got throughout Taylor where you said 16 to 18. I've got him as my Q16. Looking at consensus rankings right now. He's the QB22. And like I said, sometimes this just like nothing to lose mentality is what you want to see from quarterbacks late in the season. So am I saying like you need to get this guy in your lineup? Absolutely not. But like I said, if you've got Lamar Jackson, if you've got Justin Herbert, if you've been holding on to hope for Jaden Daniels who may or may not come back this week, we've got some other guys that are banged up, other guys that are on by. You know, I think that Todd Taylor absolutely is a strong streamer this week. Now I want to talk about the Jets a little bit or the Dolphins a little bit. After talking about the Jets, Darren Waller, we're expecting him to play again. He had a rest day on Wednesday but practiced in full on Thursday. Who are some tight ends that you would start Darren Waller ahead of this week? Just trying to give some actionable advice out here for the, the fantasy managers listening that have Darren Wall Waller and want to get him in the.
- [17:21]
Sam Wagman
Lineup. So with, with Waller we, we have to remember that he's done a lot of his damage on limited, limited receptions. But you know, he's always been one of those guys who can kind of, you know, be a yards after the catch kind of guy. He's a good route runner, runs them well. Big red zone target obviously 6, 7, 6, 8 like he's, he's just a hulking target. So big, big weapon for the Dolphins in the red zone there, which I think is, is a place that he's going to shine against the jets team that has kind of struggled against the tight end this year. I would have Waller, Waller pretty high up. I mean over guys like TJ Hawkinson making Mason Taylor, Dallas Goddard, AJ Barner, these are all guys in that kind of early to mid titan and 2 range. I would have, I would have Waller right there right outside my top 12 tight ends as a really popular guy. Like if he gets into the end zone he is easily going to be a tight end one on the week and we've seen this before. The two two and him have a nice rapport. They have linked up for multiple touchdowns this season. In, in the early jets game earlier this season they he had two touchdowns if I remember correctly. So this is a good spot. This is a great spot for Darren Waller. If you are one of those people who you know has a George Kittle on by Has a Hunter Henry on by. This is a great waiver wire pickup for.
- [18:44]
Dave Kluge
You. Yeah, and some other names that I haven't heard of. I know Zach Ertz is coming off of a huge game but going up against Minnesota they are much better against tight ends. So I prefer Darren Waller to Zach Ertz this week. Even Dallas Goddard, I don't know how you feel about that one, but he has cooled off. Yeah. After a red hot start. Dallas Goddard has not been doing what he did earlier in the season. So Darren Waller, I've got him as my tight end 13 on the week meaning most people are getting him in their lineups unless you are just, you know, sitting on an embarrassment of riches at the tight end position. I got a similar question regarding this Miami backfield that I had regarding the the Bills backfield here. I think it's so important this time of year to stash these running backs that are an injury away from huge upside. Alfredo Brown and I just did a show on Handcuffs earlier in the week on this feed if you want to check that out. But who is the better backfield handcuff stash for Miami? Is it Ali Gordon or is it Jalen.
- [19:39]
Sam Wagman
Wright? This might be the toughest question that we have to answer on this show. I would like to say neither of them personally.
- [19:49]
My, my issue, my, my default answer would be Jalen Wright. At the start of the season I was one of those guys who was hugely in on Jalen Wright. Thought he was going to really kind of break out. This season we saw, we saw some stuff from him, you know, previously nicely touted prospect out of.
- [20:05]
Dave Kluge
Tennessee.
- [20:05]
Sam Wagman
See. But it just feels like this coaching staff lost interest in Jalen Wright even after he came back from injury. Midway through this year they elected to go with Ali Gordon and they, they've just given Tavon H.N. the, you know, the free reign of the backfield to do whatever he wants, as much work as he wants. But in those short yardage situations they are going to go away from Achan because HN is 180 pounds and you have two kind of bruisers here and Ollie Gordon and Jalen wright Both are 220 plus pounds here. I think I would probably lean Ollie Gordon because he's shown, he's shown in those short yarded situations especially near the goal line that he's been able to get it done in spots. We just haven't seen that from Jalen Wright much this season. Both of them got three carries last week. But I would still trust the Dolphins to go with Ollie Gordon, he's shown them more over the course of the season that he can get it done in those short situations. So I would lean Gordon, but neither of these guys should truly be on your radar unless a chan gets.
- [21:04]
Dave Kluge
Injured. Yeah, and I think that this is a good conversation because there is nuance to it. I also would prefer Ali Gordon, but if you're expecting Ollie Gordon to do what Devon Achan is doing, which is getting 20 carries and 12 targets per game, that's not going to happen. I think it's in Mike McDaniel's blood to want to split the backfield a little bit. That's what we saw him doing every separate of his career. Now, of course, with a guy like Hn, he's just been so good that they need to force feed him this big workload. So, you know, I think, you know, that's why we talk through these situations. I think Gordon would probably have a little bit more value, especially as a guy who could score touchdowns. But Jalen Wright is a good pass catcher and he'd come in there. So I prefer Gordon, but I don't think either of these guys are like a Ray Davis, where I think if Ray Davis comes in, we saw him last year handle over 20 touches in a game when James Cook was down. And I don't know if either of these guys has that 20 plus touch potential. We had a lot of divisional matchups. I think we're only talking about two games today that aren't divisional matchups, but this one, we're gonna head down to the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Daniel Jones, is he still a plug and play.
- [22:07]
Sam Wagman
QB1? He is not. Not with this injury. He's not. You just. You. You cannot. So there's context to this. Daniel Jones, he's run a lot less with the Colts than he has at any other point in his career. He was averaging, you know, nearly, you know, 350 rushing yards per season when he was the Giants quarterback. And you know, even. Even in the past couple of seasons when he was jumping around as a backup and a spot starter, he was still kind of averaging on that, you know, 17 game pace of 300, 350 yards. He has 150 yards rushing this season. He has not ran the ball, you know, for whatever reason. Shane Steichen has kind of, you know, you know, told him to chill out a little bit. Maybe he doesn't want him tripping over himself like, like the very, the very famous clip that I love. I love very much to see that clip. But now we have a bigger issue. The fracture fibula. And it looked really bad last week. That man could not move. He ran one time for one yard. He is just. He has no lateral mobility. He cannot move from side to side. He can't really step up in the pocket all that well. You know, scrambling out of sacks and pressure is a really big task for him. And that's going to be really shown here. Again. It was shown last week against the Houston Texans with their defense, and it's going to be shown again against the Jaguars, who have an equally impressive defensive line and ability to get, get to the quarterback here. So I'm really kind of worried about trusting Daniel Jones as more than, more than a middling QB2 this week and, and honestly for the rest of the season, because this is a fractured fibula, it's not going anywhere. So this is not gonna, this is not gonna be gone by the playoffs.
- [23:51]
Dave Kluge
Even. Yeah. And it feels like, you know, early in the season we had this like deep, rich pool of quarterback streamers. And now I'm looking at it like when I get to the end of my top 12, I'm looking at Caleb Williams, who, like, we've seen the boom games, but he has a really tough matchup this week against Green Bay. Dan, really tough matchup, limited mobility, hasn't looked like himself over the last month. Going up against Jacksonville. Baker Mayfield, who's playing with a bum left shoulder right now, has not looked good. Like, these are the guys that I'm kind of looking at that QB1, QB2 tier. And when we talk about Tyrod Taylor earlier, I almost wonder if like to Rod Taylor is a better start than Daniel Jones now, it's so tough for me to rank it that way. But if you are a fantasy manager who has been frustrated with the production you've been getting from Daniel Jones and you want to make that switch. Like they are close enough in my rankings that if you want to go to Rod Taylor over Bo Nicks, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Caleb Williams, like, I get it because it has been very bleak for some of these guys and there are a lot of tough matchups on the schedule this week sticking with the Colts and the Colts passing attack, specifically Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce. Who do you prefer in this.
- [24:54]
Sam Wagman
Matchup? So when I, when I have questions like this, I tend to go to the kind of matchup that these guys are playing. And this is going to be a matchup against a pretty heavy zone defense that the Jaguars run. They run the 8th most zone on a weekly basis this season. And Michael Pittman is simply better against zone coverage than Alec Pierce has been all, all season. We, we know, we know the kind of archetype that Alec Pierce is. He does really well in single coverage. He's streaking down the field, those one on one contested catch situations. But these are also the kind of situations that you would love to have a Daniel Jones that can kind of scramble and move around the pocket until he gets the single coverage that he wants from Alec Pierce in these situations. And I'm just not sold that he's gonna have enough time against this Jaguars defense that will be bringing a ton of pressure with their, their defensive coordinator Anthony Campanillo, who has been one of the heaviest blitzers in the league this season. So I think that this is a spot to take Pittman short, short yardage, intermediate middle of the field. It's a Tyler Warren and a Michael Pittman game for me all day for the Colts, I think they're going to thrive. This is a great matchup for Pittman. He's played well against the Jaguars in his career. So give me Pittman in the.
- [26:17]
Dave Kluge
Spot. I think you're bang on there. And I talked with Alfredo Brown about this. Exactly. Exact thing earlier. And if you look, Michael Pittman gets shut down by man coverage. Like you put a good cornerback on Michael Pittman and he's done his worst games of the year. This year came against Houston last week when he had Derek Stingley on him. We look at the game against Atlanta that he had a few weeks ago. He had A.J. terrell on him. We look at that game against Arizona. Will Johnson just completely shut him down. Trent McDuffie shut him down. Pat certain shut him down. The Jaguars don't have that type of guy. And when they play in zone, that's when he's able to just work in those short intermediate areas, gobble up targets. So I am completely, completely with you here. It's very insightful. I was going to basically say everything that you just said. So let's move on to the next one here. Well, actually sticking with the same game, but I want to talk about the Jaguars. Jacob Myers looked pretty, pretty good last week. Brian Thomas did not. Do you think that Jacoby Myers will outscore Brian Thomas Jr. Between now and the end of the.
- [27:12]
Sam Wagman
Season? I'm unsure. I, I do have this. Listen to my notes. Is no, I still think Brian Thomas Jr. Is the wide receiver one of this team. Or at least I believe that Liam Cullen wants him to be the wide receiver one of this team. But the more I think about it, can we trust Brian Thomas Jr. To do anything that we saw him do in 2024 at this point? I, I don't know. I've been, I've been running, I've been running with the injury crutch all season long. I've had it up to here with the injury crush for Brian Thomas Jr. At some point we, at some point we have to throw sunk cost fallacy into the equation and just say we've got to cut bait and we've got to kind of, we've kind of just got to accept that this guy is clearly for, for whatever reason is not playing up to the level that we drafted him to be. And Jacoby Myers, who has always been an underrated fantasy player, so good, such good hands, such good route running, the ability to get downfield, the ability to beat press coverage, the ability to do everything you want in a y, in a wide receiver one but just hasn't gotten the opportunities or the quarterback play to be that wide receiver one in his career so far. I think this is a spot where we could see Jacoby Myers truly become the wide receiver one of this team down the stretch. And that, that says a lot. That says a lot about this team. I think, I think Liam Cohen is having the opportunity to basically put his stamp on this, on this offense down the stretch. It's his first year. He inherited Brian Thomas. He didn't draft him, but he did, you know, oversee acquiring Jacoby Myers. So that could mean more than we think. Maybe Myers is his guy and.
- [28:57]
Dave Kluge
And it's significant draft capital. They gave up a fourth and a fifth round pick. Like this is not just like a day three pick swap here. Like they made a big move to go out and get Jacoby Myers. And I've said it all season, I just don't. Brian Thomas Jr. Is a great fit in this offense. Like he does one thing really well and that is run downfield outside the numbers and catch go balls. And that isn't a huge part of Liam Cohen's offense. Like, yeah, we saw Mike Evans doing that, but we also saw Mike Evans running crossers and catching the ball through traffic and keeping defenses honest with that role. And that's where Brian Thomas just really struggles. Like you ask him to catch a ball through traffic and he cannot do it. So I think that maybe having Jacoby Myers in that role, like where Jacoby Myers, we know he can catch through traffic, we know he can catch streaking across the middle of the field, it's almost what he does better than anything else that if you have that threat, which I think Travis Hunter was starting to develop into that threat before hurting his knee, I think that could help unlock Brian Thomas Jr. Similarly to how we saw last year. But I also don't think that there is a role that we've ever really seen in Liam Cohen's offense like we saw Brian Thomas Jr. In last year where it was just nine routes almost every single time they would snap the ball. So I, I still want to hold on to hope here, but I don't think Brian Thomas Jr. Is coming anywhere close to the wide receiver one we saw last year. I think you just kind of plug him in your lineup as a boom bust wide receiver three, like he always has the speed and the athleticism where he can get behind a defense and make your day, but he doesn't have that target earning profile that gives him any semblance of a floor. Now we want to stay talking about this game and I'm going to ask you the same exact question, just changing the names up here a little bit. Will Bashal Tootin outscore Travis Etienne between now and the end of the.
- [30:37]
Sam Wagman
Season? I don't think so. So I, I actually wrote an article on prize picks earlier today about Travis ETN and it was mostly geared towards his matchup this week. But it takes into account the fact that, you know, after we kind of saw a lull in his snaps and, and you know, touches and opportunities in the middle of the season, they've slowly kind of risen back up over the, over the last month, month and a half, he's been averaging, you know, close to 20, 20 touches. I believe he's right around, you know, a 19 touch average over his last five games. He's been solid during that, averaging about 25 yards through the air, 70 yards on the ground. So I think this is a good, I think this is a good spot for ETN to be very steady. He's not going to be, you know, an RB one, you know, level guy, but he's right there. He's on the cusp of it. He's a solid, steady RB2 for me and I just don't think we've seen enough from Tutin, nor do I think this, this coaching staff is ready to give Tutin the bulk of the work. Yes, he's been solid in some goal line opportunities and some short yardage. He does have the three touchdowns in the last five games. But I still think that ETN is kind of the guy that they, they want to ride. They have an interesting schedule down the stretch. Two games against the Colts who have been allowing like 35 rush attempts per game over their last three games after allowing sub 30 over the first half of the season, a game against the jets and a game against the Broncos. So there is opportunity for ETN to have a really solid end of season run here where he is your RB2 or in a good spot, your RB1. And I think this game, again, I think the games against the Colts will be really interesting because it sets up pretty well for the Jaguars. You have a limited mobility, Daniel Jones there like we talked about and a really good Jaguars defense. That's the script for a good rushing performance there. So I think we're gonna get a lot of answers as to how the Jaguars want to operate this backfield, but I would still think that ETN gets about 65% of the work there. Tootin hasn't shown a lot through the air so far and I think he's more a change of pace guy for Liam Cohen, at least this season. You know, it remains to be seen what the future holds, but right now I would still be confident saying ETN is the guy that owned this.
- [32:57]
Dave Kluge
Backfield and I think that's a very grounded take because so many people just want to like Wishcast, the rookie that they got in round 12 of their fantasy draft to take over the backfield and sometimes it does happen, but for everybody, Bucky irving, there are 20 guys that never take over the backfield and I don't think we're going to see a true takeover here. Now what I will say is last week we did see Baysha Tootin a little bit more involved than two weeks ago in his first game back from that ankle injury. I don't think he's going to flip the backfield, but I think he could push. You know, right now you talk it's been kind of like this like 65, 25, 10 split where LA Quinn Allen is just getting this 10% every single week that we can kind of just ignore. But I think maybe that like 65, 25, you know, maybe we see that more of like a, I don't know, a 50 workload going Travis ETN's way, 40% going to Tuton and then Quint Allen's still getting his 10%. So I think there's like some flex appeal here with Bashal Tutin in the same way that there is with Kyle Manungai or like if he's running hot, he can get some extra workload in the game, he can Always find the end zone. But I don't think he is going to put Travis Etienne out of a job. Nor do I think Kyle Manungai is going to put DeAndre Swift out of a job. We want these things to happen from a fantasy perspective. That's just not how the NFL.
- [34:08]
Sam Wagman
Works. Hey, this is growth. This is growth. I went from thinking Tank Bigsby was going to be the RB1 of this backfield three months ago and, and look where I. Look where I am.
- [34:19]
Dave Kluge
Now. So, I mean, to be fair, like, I remember the first week of training camp they were saying, Tank Bigsby is getting all of the first team reps. He looks like the best running back here. I think now we can read the tea leaves in hindsight and say, oh, they were just hoping somebody would call and try to get Tank Bigsby from them. Like they were just trying to inflate his trade value a little bit. But yeah, just kind of a weird situation the way this all transpired throughout training.
- [34:44]
Sam Wagman
Camp. As someone who does the Jaguars training camp reports for football guys like I, I got to see, I got to see this really up close. And every beat reporter I talked to swore up and down that Tank Bigsby would have a massive role, that nobody, no, no one in the coaching staff was settled on who they wanted to be the RB one. Like there were, they were all three of Tootin, ETN and Bigsby were in conversations to lead this backfield and it was, it just ended up being ETN who showed the most for them. They ended up, you know, they, they decided to not leave it in the hands of the rookies, which I think is, which is probably very smart for, you know, a first year coach to do and kind of see what he has in his guys. But I think Tuton has definitely shown enough that, you know, if we're looking, you know, forward a year in the future, I could, I could definitely say that at this point next season, Tuton is the one leading this backfield.
- [35:39]
Dave Kluge
Basically. Jeff Bell and I, we just did an article or an episode on the Dynasty channel and we talked about our favorite players to buy right now. And we didn't compare notes beforehand. We just hopped on the show and started recording. And I said Bashal Tutin and he said Laquin Allen and we both kind of said, you know, Travis Etienne's probably not there next year. And they like both of these rookies, like Liquid Allen. His role has been huge this year, but they still trust him enough to give him a steady role every single week. And the reality is like These were the two guys that were hand picked by James Gladstone and Liam Cohen. I'm guessing that next year we do see ETN move on, go somewhere else and then it'll be Tuton and Allen handling the touches. But for now they've got Travis ETN who's been performing very well and he is ending his contract after this year. This might be one of those let's just run him into the ground until this season comes to an end sort of.
- [36:26]
Ad Host/Announcer
Situations. Whether you're into unsolved mysteries, solved mysteries, or creating your own mysteries, Amazon Music's got millions of podcast episodes waiting. Just download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite podcasts.
- [36:42]
Dave Kluge
Ad free included with.
- [36:44]
Ad Host/Announcer
Prime. Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.
- [36:46]
Dave Kluge
Zoe. This thing weighs a ton of Drewski. Live with your legs, man.
- [36:50]
Sam Wagman
Santa. Santa, did you get my.
- [36:51]
Dave Kluge
Letter? He's talking to you, Bridges. I'm.
- [36:53]
Ad Host/Announcer
Not. Of course he.
- [36:55]
Dave Kluge
Did. Right Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here. He handles the nice list. And elf, I'm six' three. What everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile. You can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies, right, Mrs. Claus? I'm Mrs. Claus's much younger.
- [37:11]
Ad Host/Announcer
Sister. And AT T Mobile there's no.
- [37:13]
Dave Kluge
Trade in needed when you see switch so you can keep your old phone or give it as a gift. And the best part, you can.
- [37:18]
Ad Host/Announcer
Make the switch to T Mobile from your phone in just 15.
- [37:20]
Dave Kluge
Minutes. Guys, my side of the tree is slipping. Kimber, the holidays are better. AT T Mobile switch in just 15 minutes and get iPhone 17 on us with no trade in needed. And now T Mobile is available in US cellular stores with 24 monthly bill credits for well qualified customers plus.
- [37:35]
Sam Wagman
Tax and $35 device connection.
- [37:36]
Dave Kluge
Charge. Credit sentinel balance due if you pay off earlier. Cancel Finance agreement. 256 gigs $830 eligible for in a new line $100 plus a month plan with auto payment plus taxes fees required. Check out 15 minutes or less per line. Visit t mobile.com yeah. All right, let's talk about the last two games we have too. The biggest matchups of the week. The Bears and Packers battle for the NFC north right now with just a few weeks left in the season. Are we looking at Deandre Swift and Common Unguy both as just auto starts at this.
- [37:58]
Sam Wagman
Point. So I. I think in good, I think in good matchups they definitely are the Bear the Bears schedule like we talked about pre show the Bears have games against the packers, games against the Lions it's an interesting, it's an interesting look at their schedule down the stretch and Manung Guy has looked really good over the last couple of weeks. But we can't, we can't ignore the fact that this is, this is the Bears version of what the Lions have done for the past couple of years under Ben Johnson. It's Sonic and Knuckles. It's a one, two punch. But, you know, Montgomery looked like the better runner at times. I think Manungai, I think it's very fair to say that Kyle Manunga has looked like a better runner than DeAndre Swift at points this season. But I also think it's fair to say that DeAndre Swift has looked better overall than Kyle Manon Guy. He's, he's got some of that burst back to him. So I think both are matchup dependent on where you, where you want to start them. Like, like for instance, I'm having trouble slotting Kyle Manon Guy easily into, into my lineup this week despite the fact that, you know, I'm starting Christian Watson and.
- [39:06]
RJ Harvey there in my flex. And I'm starting both of them against Manungai because it's a tough matchup against the Packers. But, you know, say this is the Browns or the 49ers, I might be willing to start Manangai because I think that's a situation where the Bears could lean on the run and Manungai has been really good at getting those yards and he, they, the Bears just open lanes for them. So we're kind of at the mercy of how the Bears are operating their running back room on a weekly basis. But the holes have been so good for both back that if you need to, you shouldn't feel at all worried about starting either of these guys because they're, they're going to get touches. That, that's, that's the thing here. They're going to get touches. I don't think Manungai is going to get 20 carries again splitting with DeAndre Swift like he did against the Eagles. But I do think there's a scenario where down the stretch he gets, gets 10 to 12 touches a game and with room for more if, if this, if the game script is good. So I do think that both of these guys are very good players and definitely worth a flex spot on a weekly.
- [40:16]
Dave Kluge
Basis. And then, you know, when you look at like the fantasy points allowed by position for each team, you might look at the packers, they ranked 22nd, which seems kind of middle of the pack. But when you look closer at the numbers, you realize that these bottom 10 teams from 22 down to 32 are only separated by about three points per. And these are all like the very tough matchups. There's a huge gap once you go above the packers, but the Packers, Browns, Steelers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, Broncos, Patriots and Lions are all giving up not a lot of points to fantasy teams or to fantasy running backs. Once you get a little above that list, then you're looking at these big jumps up in points allowed until you get up to the Bengals, who are allowing like three times as many points as the teams we just discuss. But, you know, I think you want to look at that like some of these are just like matchups where you want to start the lead back, but you don't want to get cute and start the RB2 here. Now, of course, Manangai always does have the opportunity to just plunge in the end zone. We have seen him do that this year. But I think there are better days ahead coming off of what we saw last week, I don't expect that to be the norm every single week. So this is a week where Manangai, I've kind of got him in that flex territory. I'm starting him in some leagues, but I'm looking for better options in other leagues where I can. Now, sticking with this game, which Bears receiver? And maybe I should rephrase this. Maybe not receiver. Maybe it's a pass catcher, maybe it's not a wide receiver. Which Bears pass catcher can we trust the most in our weekly.
- [41:41]
Sam Wagman
Lineups? Well, pass catcher opens things up a little bit more. The wide receiver to trust is still Roma Dunze because DJ Moore is just not, not trustable as to, you know, how they're going to use him on, on a weekly basis. You don't know if they're gonna run the ball to him. You don't know if they're gonna pass the ball to him. You don't know if they're going to target him at all. At least you know that Robo Dunes, they will get targets. He did tie for the team lead and Target 6 alongside Luther Bird and Colson Loveland last week against the Eagles in a game where they really didn't have to throw the ball that much. So that that Bear is worth noting. But these are some matchups down the stretch that I think are going to be good for the tight end position. So if we, if we expand this pass catchers, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Colston Loveland, who has, I believe, almost 300 yards in his last six games, comes on really strong down the stretch and looks really good as he has the last month or so. The packers are weak against the tight end. The Lions can be weak against the tight end. The 49ers are weak against the tight end. These are, these are some really good matchups for the tight end position here. So I think this is a really good spot for Colson Loveland if you want to use him. You know, obviously he hasn't shown a ton yet, but he has shown the ability to get open. He's a solid route runner. He, Caleb Williams clearly likes him both in the intermediate and downfield as well. So I think this is a good spot for Loveland. I'm kind of out on Luther Burton at least for the rest of this season. I still haven't seen enough to to think that they're going to use him outside of that more of a gadgety role, short area of the field, screens, you know, maybe he gets open deep at some point but he's not going to garner and can consistent target share, you know, on the routes that you want him to be just yet. So I'm out there but from a wide receiver standpoint it's on dunesday but I would probably say it's Colson Loveland if we're going past catcher.
- [43:36]
Dave Kluge
There. Yeah and I think you're right there one. I mean like you know you can live with 11 points per game from a tight end and like that much more than 11 points per game from a wide receiver. Just give the positional scarcity there. And obviously so much of this is weighed by that huge game that he had against Cincinnati. But what we saw was week eight which was actually the week before the Cincinnati game where he didn't have a huge showing but that was kind of when he became a full time player and he has consistently been among the top in routes run since then and since that point he's the top five tight end in scoring. It is Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Travis Kelce are the only tight ends outscoring Colson Loveland since week eight. So he's a full time player now. You talk about the route, running the hands. He's just emerging as this reliable target and a nice schedule going forward. Also for anybody right now wondering about Roma Dunes A we still don't really have any word back to back DNPs to start the week. He's dealing with some sort of foot injury right now. So I think if a dudes out of the picture Then we might be talking about Luther Burden as a potential streamer. But I'm with you. I just haven't seen it. And I've said that all year though. Like, if you want to stash Luther Burden, you can. But in order for him to break out, it's going to require injuries. So we might be looking at it now where if A Dunes is out of the picture, Roma Dunze is running a full share of routes, then we can get him into the flex discussion. But I don't think we've been there prior to this week. Now want to stay talking about the packers. And I know, I know we're not supposed to drop first round rookies. We all know what happened to that guy who dropped Justin Jefferson his rookie season and still gets made fun of it to this day. But give me one reason not to drop Matthew.
- [45:12]
Sam Wagman
Golden. I'm reaching a bit, but you don't have.
- [45:16]
Dave Kluge
To. You don't have a reason. You don't have.
- [45:18]
Sam Wagman
To. Well, I, I don't know if there's, I don't know if there's a really good reason to keep Matthew Golden. He hasn't looked good, but when Golden's active, I feel like he really helps stretch the field out a little bit further. And Christian, him and Christian Watson work very well in tandem together because you have Christian Watson running routes on the perimeter and you kind of have a Golden clearing space out for him in the intermediate to like deep crosser levels of the field and I think that that's a really good spot that you want golden to be in. You don't want, you don't want golden to just be running all of these nine routes down the field because he's clearly shown that they haven't worked out well for them this season so much. We've seen some drops from him in contested catch situation and he's not really contested catch sort of guy. That's not really his, that's not really his profile that you want, you want him to be a guy that is able to kind of clear out defenders, you know, run run routes under, under zones and kind of just be open in that, like that middle of the field and like deep crosser range. And that's, that's where I think golden does his best work on those, you know, deep out routes as well towards the sideline where he can use his speed to turn on the afterburners and kind of get, get to the sideline quick and just kind of have that ball only where he can catch it thrown by Jordan Love. So I think that's the, that's the kind of spot you want golden to be in. We really just haven't seen enough this season to have a clear. This is why he's not going to be, you know, a rock solid bust candidate. But I'm hoping that we at least get something down the stretch towards the playoffs here that can kind of show us, you know, give us some hope going into his sophomore season. Because this has been a really bad season. You know, by even by anybody's terms, this has been a really bad season for a guy who not really many people had as their wide receiver one Going into the draft process, there were plenty of people who didn't really rank him as a round one wide receiver at all. But I think, you know, we see a fast guy at the combine say, oh yeah, he's gonna be, he's gonna be a stud. It's the John, it's the John Ross phenomenon. Yeah, it always will be. And we all know how I.
- [47:37]
Dave Kluge
Was so like there was nothing I liked especially about Matthew golden from his college film to his analytical profile. But then the combine happened and then the packers drafted him within round one. Like he went to a team that needed a wide receiver one and like I just completely abandoned all of my pre draft priors because of the good situation and the speed and I got talked into it. I, I, I, I think you make a compelling point or a compelling case, I should say to keep Matthew Golden. I'm just gonna say to drop him at this point, like hold on to him in Dynasty in case he could figure it out. But I am a, okay just dropping Matthew golden and if he pops off on somebody else's team, I can live with that. But more likely than not, he is going to take up a bench spot on somebody else's team and open up an opportunity for you to get an injury away running back or a defense that you can stream through the playoffs. Like there are just better ways to use your draft or your bench spots right now than a wide receiver that hasn't shown much of anything this.
- [48:33]
Sam Wagman
Year. And I think a great question to ask at this point is what does it take for you to start Matthew golden in your lineup? What does it take? Like what does he, you know, if he has, you know, if he comes back this week and he puts up three catches for 80 yards, like we've seen exactly one time from him this season, is that gonna be.
- [48:56]
Dave Kluge
Enough? And then you put him in your lineup next week and then he gets 2 for 13 and like that's.
- [49:01]
Sam Wagman
Just like, yeah, I would need to see like a minimum of like five catches from him and I don't even think he has a five catch performance in him right now. It just does, it just doesn't show me. I, I just don't see that he's winning routes consistently. I don't see that he has the trust of Jordan Love. I don't see the, you know, the soft hands that we look for from a wide receiver of his caliber. I don't see any of that. When I, when I watch Matthew Golden, I see a very fast guy in a straight line who doesn't do well in contested cash situations, which is the kind of guy you want to be if you're good in a straight line line.
- [49:38]
Dave Kluge
Situation. And let's say he does pop this week, which I don't think either of us expect. But you know, the Bears have given up big plays like that. That's what they do. I saw somebody called them the Jameis Winston of secondaries that they will give up a touchdown or they will get an interception on almost every single play. That's what they do. So let's say he does pop this week and then next week he has a harder matchup and we expect Jaden Reed to be back in the mix. So I think like you're spot on. There just isn't any situation where you are going to confidently have Matthew golden in your lineup during the fantasy playoffs. So let's talk about one more player in this matchup before we get to the last one of the week. Jordan Love very boom bust this year. You get these 35 point games and you get these eight point games and it seems like he never does anything in between. Looking at this matchup against the Bears, are you expecting a boom week or a bust.
- [50:24]
Sam Wagman
Week? I want it on the record that I am a Jordan Love hater. I have been for years. Those who know me know, know that my, that my biggest tweet ever was saying that Jordan Love was the worst first round pick in history when it came to usage of draft capital. Considering the fact that he sat on the bench for three years and did nothing and that basically he had to become Aaron Rodgers to be useful. People reacted very rationally that I've come, I've come a little bit around in love ever since then but I still haven't come around on him much. And it's like you said, like he, he, he mixes in really good performances with really bad ones. I think this is a performance that's going to depend on what the Bears, what the Bears do. I don't think, you know, if, if the packers are just kind of moving along, I think they're going to be content in a situation like this to lean on Josh Jacobs. And I don't think, I don't think they're going to feel the need to throw the ball as much. They're going to be, I believe this is at Lambo, so. Or whether, whether it's a Soldier Field or Lambo, it's going to be cold outside. It's going to be windy. It is at Lambeau. So, like, this isn't a situation where you kind of want to be streaming a quarterback unless you have to. That being said, I will say teams are throwing more against the Bears lately. Over their last five games, teams are averaging 36 attempts per game versus sub 30 in the first seven games of the season. So there is something to be said about the Bears kind of forcing teams into that, that, that situation where they have to pass first. We obviously saw it with the Eagles last week. Jalen Hurts threw the ball 34 times, which he's only done a couple of times this season. So there is a scenario where Jordan Love goes to his arm and I think that's, I think that's a good spot. Like.
- [52:13]
I'm not sure about the Bears linebacker core scenario. Their linebackers have.
- [52:17]
Dave Kluge
Been.
- [52:18]
Sam Wagman
Yeah. Extremely beat up. Are you guys still starting practice squad players at.
- [52:21]
Dave Kluge
Linebacker? It is a joke. Like I, I, I, I, I almost think that they're giving away these free hot dogs at the Wiener Circle, hoping that some 280 pound beefcake can walk in and they could just say like, hey, have you played football before? Can we get you out there? This is awful what they are doing out here right now. Like, I, I, it, they're still winning games, so more power to them, but they desperately need to get these linebackers.
- [52:42]
Sam Wagman
Back. Yeah. So in like, in situations like that where like it's just, it's just free layups, like he'll, he'll throw the ball to Josh Jacobs or he'll throw the ball, you know, short to, you know, Don Tavian Wicks. Like, I, I think there are spots for that, but this is still a very solid Bears.
- [53:02]
Secondary here. You know, Kevin Byard still looks good. Jalen Johnson still looks good. So Nishan Wright still looks good. So I think these are, I think these are all things that could work against Jordan Love in a situation where he had to throw. But if he has to throw, I don't think it's the Worst situation in the world. I would probably have him ranked like right at the back end of.
- [53:24]
Dave Kluge
My QB1 range last game of the week. And as I always do, you know, I like to have fans on the show so we can talk about their home team. Sam, you are an unabashed Eagles fan, so we'll talk about the Eagles playing in Los Angeles against the Chargers. Let's start with the Chargers here. How much would your outlook for the Chargers pass catchers change if we end up with a Trey Lance start? Now, I want to say Jim Harbaugh has expressed, has expressed optimism. He expects Justin Herbert to be out there. But Jim Harbaugh also thinks that Justin Herbert is like a cyborg. Like he has unrealistic expectations for Justin Herbert at times. So I don't know if we're going to see Justin Herbert out there. Even if we do, I think he could potentially be limited. So for the sake of this exercise, let's pretend Trey Lance is starting. What do we do with lad McConkey, Keenan Allen or Ronda Gats and Quentin Johnson, all these other pass.
- [54:13]
Sam Wagman
Catchers? I'm not sure I could trust any of the, any of the pass catchers here. It might just be, you know, whatever works. My, my default would say lad McConkey is, is the guy to trust in a scenario like that. But Trey Lance hasn't had any first team reps. He doesn't, he doesn't practice with the starter. So, you know, my, my trust in the wide receivers, my trust in the tight ends especially maybe, maybe Gadsden because he did start as, you know, a practice squad and you know, not, not a first team teamer to start the season. That, that's a possibility. That could be, you know, a sneaky safety blanket there. But I just don't know that I would trust this offense, especially against an Eagles. A very solid Eagle secondary. Quinon Mitchell, in my opinion, in my humble opinion, a top five cornerback in the league, adore a Jackson and Cooper DeJean, you know, bandage their way to, you know, a very solid other half of the field there. You have good players in the secondary. Our linebackers are some of the tops in the league. I just don't, I just don't see a scenario where Trey Lance would be able to throw a ton on this Philadelphia Eagles defense. And I, I just, I don't see it. So it would be a lot of design runs in. In my opinion, we've struggled to contain some of those. I think that there would be a lot of safety blanket plays. So to Keenan Allen and lad McConkey would feature pretty heavily in a scenario like that. I think Quentin Johnson would probably be out of the equation almost entirely there. So I, I just, I just wouldn't trust it that.
- [55:51]
Dave Kluge
Much. Yeah, I mean, I flashback to Lamar Jackson's rookie season and if you look his 17 game pace in the games that he started, he would have been pacing for 380 pass attempts, like just 22.6 pass attempts per game. Like we know this is. Greg Roman isn't afraid to just say like, hey, we are going to run the ball a lot and we are going to get our quarterback design runs and when we do throw the ball, it's going to be on short little dump offs to the tight end. So I think that you're spot on with Gadson. You know, you talk about them being on the second team offense together to start the year in training camp. There could be a little bit of chemistry there. But even, you know, I don't want to push back too hard. But like lad McConkey, I'd be worried about Lad Bikanki, I'd be worried about Keenan Allen. These guys who rely on timing routes that work downfield, that are constantly trying to keep defenses on their toes by, you know, stretching vertically and horizontally. I think what we probably see are a lot of just like short little dump offs to Quentin Johnson. You know, an athlete that can create after the catch, a Ronda Gadsden, a big body player who likes to work near the line of scrimmage. But I don't think I'd have confidence or faith in trusting any of these guys. I do think that Trey Lance is kind of like a, a sneaky streamer. I feel like if you're sitting on Justin Herbert right now and you aren't sure what to do at quarterback, like I'm in some deep leagues right now where I'm sitting on Justin Herbert and I'm saying, do I want to pick up Tyler Schuck, Do I want to pick up Cam Ward? And I finally just said, you know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna pick up Trey Lance and if Justin Herbert can't go, I'll make that switch on Monday night because I think there is some fun rushing upside there. You know, he can find the end zone and make his day there. But yeah, I think Trey Lance at this point, you know, we haven't seen a lot from him, but I think we haven't seen a lot from him because NFL coaches don't trust him to run the offenses. Now sticking with the Chargers here and talking about trusting guys in our lineups, how about Omarion Hampton? It seems like he is trending towards playing. Are we just immediately putting him right back in lineups, or do you think fantasy managers might want to take more of a wait and see approach.
- [57:46]
Sam Wagman
Here? So my. My immediate thought is how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers treated the Bucky Irving situation last week.
- [57:57]
Josh Grizzard came out and said that he expected Bucky Irving to have a similar snapshare to what Chris Godwin had in his return to play. Bucky Irving had 19 touches last week. So there is. There is like a scenario here where if. If Hampton looks good to go in practice, we obviously, you know, are limited by how much we're, you know, we're in the know here. Despite what beat writers say, despite what coaches say, I think they could. They could just let him run with the offense. You know, the. Hampton had already, you know, started to show us a breakout once when he was injured, looked really good. And while Commodity by Doll has looked solid, he's also had a string of games where he just hasn't looked good at all. You know, we're talking 2 yards of carry, 3 yards of car carry, and he's kind of. He's kind of gone, you know, ha. You know, good game, bad game, good game, bad game, good game, bad game. And it's kind of. He's really kind of sticking to it. This is a bad game week. I'm not saying to just trust the. I'm not saying to just trust the pattern here, but I am saying there is a scenario here where Omarion Hampton does get a lot of work. Again, this is an Eagles defense that was just destroyed by the Chicago Bears. Do. Does Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman say, look at that. You know, they ran six, you know, 50 times on these guys for almost 275 yards. They did it with both backs. Maybe we. Maybe we run Kamani Vidal and Omarion Hampton. There's a scenario that exists there, but I think it's more likely that if. If Hampton is active, they give him the lion's share of the touches. They work in by Dallas to change the pace guy and kind of see how. How the backfield Shakespeare itself out, at least for the first half of the game. And if Hampton looks like he's laboring a little bit, they. They could. They could make things a little different there. We did see Bucky Irving get more work as the game went along. I believe at halftime he only had six or seven touches. So they gave Him a lot of carries right off the bat. I could definitely see them doing the same with Omari and Hampton if he's feeling up to it in this.
- [60:06]
Dave Kluge
Game. Now, now just adding a little bit of context to that comparison, it did seem like Bucky Irving, you know, he, he was practicing in full, like in the week leading up to week 12. It sounded like his struggles were more mental. Yeah, I'll let other people, like look into that if they, they want to do some research on that. But it seemed like physically he's been ready for a while. You know, Omarion Hampton has still been limited in practice. Like, you know, we found out that he had a fractured foot, not just a sprained ankle. I'm sorry, a fractured ankle. So I, I think that maybe there'd be a little bit of a ramp up here. But also like you said, it could be one of those things. We're going into halftime. He just says, hey coach, I'm feeling great. Let me loose. And that could happen as well. So I think the upside is so high that you can't really afford to bench him, especially at a game where Jalen Wright isn't going to be or Jalen Carter isn't going to be playing. So I think you kind of get him in there. I've got him ranked at RB24, which means, you know, he's a back end RB2. Most people aren't in a position where they can bench guys that are in that range, so I think you're putting him in lineups. But Anyone expecting the 25 points per game that we were seeing in the early part of the season, we might not get that right off the rip. Now let's talk about the Eagles here. Sam. All that panic about A.J. brown seems pretty silly now. Is he just a must start wide receiver? One going forward in fantasy, he always has.
- [61:22]
Sam Wagman
Been. He always has been. There, there was never, there was never a scenario where A.J. brown was washed. There was never a scenario where the Eagles were trading A.J. brown. This is, this is the guy that, that we knew he could be. And it starts, it starts with Jalen. Hurts. It starts with Jalen willing to be, willing to throw those routes to A.J. and I, I think A.J. i think, I think the Eagles players are on the same page. I'm less, I'm less convinced that the Eagles players are on the same page with the coaching staff at this point of the season. I, I, I wonder if there's a disconnect there, but I think Jalen and AJ are, are sorted out. I think they're boys again. I think, you know, if Jalen is willing to throw those downfield routes, I think AJ Will catch those downfield routes. Looks like they're. They're. They're giving AJ A little more over the middle of the field work where he works really well. So I think AJ Is a set it and forget it wide receiver one rest of the season. Have some good matchups down the stretch. You know, you have to start him. You were never not starting him. I. You.
- [62:25]
Dave Kluge
Know. Oh, people were not starting him. Believe it or not. Like, there was a point in time where a lot of people were telling me that they were benching A.J. brown for a stretch there. And, like, I. I talk about it all the time. Early season biases. Sam, I know you were watching that Week 1 game, as was all of.
- [62:40]
Sam Wagman
America.
- [62:41]
Dave Kluge
A.J. brown was hurt, and I don't know why people don't wrap their minds around this. This guy missed, like, six weeks of training camp. I forget if it was a hamstring or quad. It was. So I think it was a hamstring, right? Yeah, he was clear. Like, he was limping around out there. They had him running decoy routes to open up opportunities for other players. But that was the game that everybody in America watched, and everybody just said, oh, my goodness, AJ Brown sucks. If you remove that game from the sample. He's been a wide receiver one since then and, like, averaging almost nine targets per game since then. And. And I think all of this overreaction was just him being hurt and limited in week one, and people just, you know, we see that one game, and then we don't get any more football for three days. So everybody is just overanalyzing that game. A.J. brown is still A.J.
- [63:25]
Sam Wagman
Brown. Yeah. And look, we. We can. We can look back at, you know, some other. Some other pieces of the sample here. Games against Tampa Bay, where he was bracketed for most of the game, had two. Had only two catches on nine targets, but he was still targeted nine times the game at the game at Lambeau, where he only had three targets. It's Lambo in November. Like, come on, guys. Like, it's. So it's so much easier to just use logic. Well, I guess actually it's. It's easier to just panic, run around like, you know, a chicken with its head on fire than it is to use logic. But I promise you, it is easy to use logic, and a lot of these issues go right away. I. I'm totally with you. I think he's been absolutely fine ever since then. I. I think that he needs to step up and he knows that he needs to step up and he will step up down the stretch of the.
- [64:20]
Dave Kluge
Season. So the next question I had for you, Sam, we kind of already talked about a little bit. I was going to ask you if Dallas Goddard was still a weekly tight end, one in fantasy. And we kind of talked about this earlier, talking about Darren Waller where we don't think he is. So you're more than welcome to answer this question and talk a little bit about Dallas Goddard or as our resident Eagles fan on the show, if there's anything else Eagles related you want to talk about. If you want to talk about Jalen Hurts or Devonta Smith or Saquon Barkley or anything else that you. The floor is yours to do so. Or we can talk about Dallas.
- [64:49]
Sam Wagman
Goddard. Well, I'll put a little bit of a note on Dallas Goddard, a little bit of a bow on things to wrap it up neatly. Yeah, he just, he hasn't been above 30 yards in his last five to six games. He had that 100 yard game in the middle of the season against the Giants. That, that was it. That was it. That is all he has seen. He has fallen to. Look, this is a, this, this is not new. No matter who the offensive coordinator is. Ever since Nick Sirianni got to Philadelphia, there has been a very clear concentration of targets for the Eagles. Skill, position, players. It's heavy running game. It's AJ Brown and it's Devontae Smith. Those are the guys. That's who you got. If you get Goddard, it's, it's matchup based or it's, you know, a spot where.
- [65:36]
Dave Kluge
Even. Or a shovel pass at the goal line. Like it's been weird for Fluky. Things that have helped Dallas got her production this.
- [65:43]
Sam Wagman
Year. Yeah, it's. It's not, it's not reliable. It's. It's just not reliable. And I love Dallas. I think he's, I think he's such a good football player. One of my favorite picks that the Eagles have made over the past decade, but he can't stay healthy and he's just, he's unreliable. His hands have become even more unreliable over the past couple of seasons. Plenty of drops. If you look at his tape too, it's not great. And you know, he just doesn't, he just doesn't give you a lot of upside. He's kind of become, he's kind of become a little bit like Zach Ertz. No. Yeah. You know, just, just give you a lot this.
- [66:21]
Dave Kluge
Year. Like, I'd rather have Zach Ertz on my fantasy team right.
- [66:23]
Sam Wagman
Now. I, I, I would too. And I think, I think that it's, it's really interesting because Goddard has all the talent in the world. One of the better prospects we've seen seen at tight end over the last decade. But you know, this just, this isn't a great fit for him offensively. I would, I would love to see him flourish somewhere else. Like, I'll be heard obviously, but the Eagles just don't, the Eagles just don't use the tight end much in their offense as a receiving weapon. And you know, you see a lot of grand Calcatera downfield. They mix in him a lot as well. They tried to mix in Johnny Wilson, you know, when he was transitioning as a tight end. So the Eagles are just happy to use whoever, whoever they need to, but they're not going to throw the ball a lot, no matter whether they're down a lot or not. So this, this is, this is a team whose identity has never wavered. They are who they are. They're not changing unless Sirianni goes. I don't see it changing anytime soon. But yeah.
- [67:22]
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And I think to accurately just kind of put an end on this or succinctly I should say put an end to this Dallas Goddard conversation. He's averaging 36 yards per game this year. That is the lowest since his rookie season. And that was when he was splitting tight end snaps with a prime 28 year old Zach Ertz, who had almost 1200 receiving yards. So I mean, that's what we're looking at right now. Like Dallas Goddard, the, the, the production early in the season was so inflated by touchdowns. And I remember writing about this, I was just like, this is impossible. Like if he can maintain this touchdown rate, he is going to have more touchdowns than anybody's had in NFL history. It's just not going to happen. And now the first tight end.
- [68:02]
Sam Wagman
Ever to have seven touchdowns in his first seven games.
- [68:04]
Dave Kluge
Right? Yeah, yeah. It was unreal. Like he was, and it wasn't even like he was just like beating guys in coverage and making plays after the catch. Like I said, it was these like shovel passes at the goal line or fake tush push that they'd get the ball to him, like weird ways that he was scoring. And now that has dried up. I mean he's another one of those guys right now. I think if you dropped him, somebody would pick him up and, and let them. Like that is just an open roster spot for you. That you can use on a player with more upside. Sam, before we get to the last question, any final thoughts on the Eagles? I know we talked about AJ Brown, we talked about Dallas Goddard. Anything else you want to mention about the.
- [68:36]
Sam Wagman
Eagles? I'm so concerned about Saquon Barkley. I, I don't know what it is. It's the, it's. It's a mix of the Madden curse, the, the hurdle curse, the, the. The fact that 400, 450 touches last year. It's a mix of all these things rolled into one. And the, the fact that the offensive line has just not been that good this year from a run blocking perspective. And there's just this, this is the Eagles offense. You know, there were, there were a lot of holes that were papered up by saquon just breaking 50 yard runs last year. So there's only one person in common and the coaching staff of this offense and it's not Petullo though. He's been bad, but the other guy is still there and he's the one that's, he's the one that people should be blaming. Not, not as much. Petulo though. I don't like Patula any more than anybody else, but Sirianni is up to blame for a lot of this.
- [69:36]
Dave Kluge
Offense. Yeah. And I mean like there have been just like so many like just special players on this offense that like you said, kind of COVID up the warts of like what's actually happening when like AJ Brown can just run through the entire defense and score a touchdown or just moss three defenders and come down with a touchdown or Saquon Barkley ripping off 60 yarders and when that type of stuff isn't happening, like you start to see what the Seagulls offense really is. I mean I was doing my rankings this week and I had to like stop and like rub my eyes and be like that can't be right. Like we, we have players on buys and Saquon Barkley is my RB14. Like this is a guy that, you know, I put as my RB1 in pre draft rankings and my goodness, like looking back at draft boards where I took Saquon Barkley ahead of Bijan Robinson and ahead of Jameer Gibbs and ahead of Chris McCaffrey. Like what was I thinking this preseason? Like, you know, we saw last year he was a special player, like could have been the MVP last year. And I don't know if it's just the, the age, the wear and tear, the usage, the offensive line because when you look at him, he still looks like Saquon Barkley. He's got that bounce in his step. He's still hitting the jump cuts. He's still getting through the line. But what used to be like breaking a tackle from a cornerback and then running for 60 yards, now he just gets, like, tripped up by those guys in the secondary that are getting a hand on him. It just is not the same Saquon Barkley. It is tough to see as. As a guy with a lot of Saquon Barkley on a lot of fantasy teams. Well, Sam, I want to thank you for the time today. Before I ask you the last question, let everyone know where they can find all of your written content. You're, of course, doing some stuff with us over at Football Guys, but you're also doing a lot of. For prize picks. You've got a Twitter account that you stay very active on as well. Let everyone know where they can find you on social media, written content, video content, all that good.
- [71:16]
Sam Wagman
Stuff. Yeah. So like Dave said, you guys can find a lot of my written content over at Football Guys and over at Prize Fix on a daily basis over there. Twitter, you can find me yelling at Swagman95. Some fun stuff. Some fun stuff coming. Coming soon that I'm really, really excited about. But definitely appreciate it, you having me on here.
- [71:35]
Dave Kluge
Dave. So last question, Sam. And this is the show I. Or the question I wrap up every show with. This can be football related or otherwise. What is a hill that you are willing to die.
- [71:44]
Sam Wagman
On? So I'm a big coffee drinker. And despite the fact that I. I love coffee, I will not drink hot coffee. And I've never been able to figure out. I've never been able to figure out why I'm a big. I'm just a huge iced coffee guy. I can't tell, like, if. If I'm just, you know, I'm trying to hold on to my youth as. As long as possible because everyone that's young drinks iced coffee and not hot coffee. Or, you know, if I'm just, you know, not a never gonna be a hot coffee guy, but everyone makes fun of me because my coffees look like milkshakes. Everyone just tells me to grow up and drink it black. I. I don't know. What do you.
- [72:25]
Dave Kluge
Think? Well, I've seen how you drink coffee in Vegas, and it's not creamer in there. It's. I believe it was.
- [72:31]
Sam Wagman
Japanese. That.
- [72:31]
Dave Kluge
Was. You were putting.
- [72:32]
Sam Wagman
It. That was a very special occasion that might happen. Yeah. You only turned 30. You only turned 30 once. And I, I set a goal. I set a goal to see how much of that whiskey bottle I could drink. And I drank a lot of that whiskey.
- [72:48]
Dave Kluge
Bottle. You did? Yeah. For anyone that doesn't know what we're talking about, we do every single year in January. We do our, our wild card weekend football guys retreat in Vegas. And it always happens to fall on Sam's birthday. So we get this fun combined like watching football retreat with the staff while we all also simultaneously celebrate Sam's birthday. And we celebrated very hard last year for the big three.
- [73:11]
Sam Wagman
Zero. I think I was, I think I was drinking at like 7:38am that morning. I think that's why I showed.
- [73:18]
Dave Kluge
Up around 9am and I saw you, saw you getting a little loose already.
- [73:23]
Sam Wagman
Yeah. Yeah. I, I don't, I don't plan to go that hard this year. I don't plan to go hard at all this year. I, I think, I think I personally over the past couple months have had. And I've done enough drinking over the past couple months. I think, I think I'm, I'm ready to, to call it off for the rest of the year. This is, this is about the time where I need to look at, look at myself and say, who do you want to be in the, in the new year? And drinking whiskey, Drinking whiskey out of a coffee at 8am is probably not the person I want to be next year. So I think that's, I think, I think there's a Sorry Joe in.
- [74:00]
Dave Kluge
There. Well, Sam, if it makes you feel better about your, your iced coffee addiction. I used to love iced coffee. When I would go into an office, like I would stop at Starbucks every single morning. I'd get my iced coffee. And then it was when I started working from home, in order to make iced coffee, I would have to make a pot of hot coffee and then I would have to put it in the fridge. And then it would get this like, gross bitter taste to it. And then by the time I'd add ice, it would water down. So one day I just like drank a cup of black hot coffee and it was disgusting. And then by day two, I was like, okay, it's still disgusting, but it's a little bit less disgusting. By the end of the week, I was just sucking down black coffee like nothing. And I have been doing that now for the last eight years. So I think that's what you have to do. Like if you really want to change this about yourself, force yourself to drink a hot black coffee no matter how much you hate it. See if you could do it every single day for a week and by the end of the week, like me, you might actually start to enjoy.
- [74:54]
Sam Wagman
It. So basically you're telling me to grow.
- [74:57]
Dave Kluge
Up. I mean your words, not mine, you know, enjoy your coffee however you want. I'm not going to yuck your. If that's how you want to do it, do it. But I will say it's much easier when you can enjoy black coffee. I was at the hospital yesterday, I was able to just go up to the Keurig, get myself a hot black coffee, not have to add any creamer to it or anything like that, make a pot of coffee at home and fill it up throughout the day and not have to worry about balancing out the levels, not to worry about ice. But I will say I love iced coffee as a treat. It's just my mornings are always just hot black coffee. Well, there we go. You know, we got a about an hour and five minutes of some high level football conversation and then five minutes of just garbage coffee talk as we typically do at the end of this show. Sam, thank you so much for taking the time to do this today. As always, a pleasure getting to hang out with you. I will see you in just a few weeks at Wild card weekend. Everybody who took the time to listen today, thank you so much for tuning in and I will see you next.
- [75:51]
Ad Host/Announcer
Week.
- [76:04]
Hey guys, have you heard of Gold Belly? It's this amazing site where they ship the most iconic famous foods from restaurants across the country, anywhere nationwide. I've never found a more perfect gift than food. Gold Belly ship Chicago deep dish pizza, New York bagels, Maine lobster rolls, and even Ina Garden's famous cakes. So if you're looking for a gift for the food lover in your life, head to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code G. That's goldbelly.com promo.
- [76:33]
Libsyn Ads Representative
Code. Gift marketing is hard, but I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now and it's great. You love the host, you seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention? You can reach great listeners like yourself with podcast advertising from Libsyn Ads. Choose from hundreds of top podcasts offering host endorsements, or run a pre produced ad like this one across thousands of shows to reach your target audience in their favorite podcasts with Libsyn ads, go to libsynads. Com. That's L, I B S Y N ads. Com today.