Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Week 16 Rankings, Sleepers, and Busts || Fantasy Football 2025
Hosts: Alfredo Brown & Dave Kluge
Date: December 19, 2025
Episode Overview
In this episode, Alfredo Brown and Dave Kluge break down their Week 16 fantasy football rankings with an emphasis on start/sit decisions, sleepers, and players to avoid. The tone is lively, insightful, and candid, with both hosts providing actionable advice for listeners heading into the fantasy playoff semifinals. They cover all running backs and wide receivers of note (plus some quarterback and tight end talk), help listeners navigate injury situations, and debate where to take risks or play it safe.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The “Football Weather” Debate
[01:31–03:20]
-
Dave professes his love for bad-weather football (“Give me a snowy game. Give me a wet game. It's just… more fun when they're playing in the elements.”), while Alfredo argues that it often ruins the product for viewers.
"This is like one of my most boomer takes: I think football weather makes football better. Like, give me a snowy game, give me a wet game." – Dave Kluge [02:18]
2. Running Back Rankings & Analysis
Tier 1 (RB1–RB7): Must-Starts With Star Potential
- Top Names Discussed: Jameer Gibbs, Devon Achane, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook
- Spotlight: Devon Achane
- Moved up to RB1 for Dave due to Tua Tagovailoa’s absence ("I expect a lot of handoffs. This is a smash matchup against the Bengals, who are dead last in points allowed to fantasy running backs." [04:56–05:56])
- Both hosts predict a 30-touch day is possible.
"We haven’t talked since—how are you doing with the Tua benching? Was this a welcomed bit of news for Dolphins fans?" – Dave Kluge [06:21]
"You can't break me now... I honestly, the worst thing that they could have done was go on a winning streak and win like five games in a row. That pissed me off more than anything." – Alfredo Brown [06:30]
Tier 2 (RB8–RB14): High-End RB2s With Workload Concerns
- Names: Bucky Irving, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs (discussion focal point), Travis Etienne, Travion Henderson, Chase Brown, Derrick Henry
- Josh Jacobs Talk ([07:45–09:50])
- Considered borderline RB1 if healthy but Dave is cautious due to injury/possible pitch count and a tough Bears matchup.
- If limited, Dave would still play him over Breece Hall but not as a must-start.
"I'm still starting him, but... I'm looking at him as more of a high-end RB2." – Dave Kluge [07:45]
Other Notable RBs Discussed
- Amarion Hampton: Both expect a 55/45 split with Kamani Vidal due to Greg Roman’s history of a split backfield. Workload should improve but ceiling is capped ([10:02–11:28]).
- Rico Dowdle: Has lost passing work & limited upside due to Chuba Hubbard’s increased efficiency and touch share ([11:28–13:01]).
- Kenneth Gainwell: Emerging as a high-leverage play with both passing down & goal-line work, despite limited touches ([14:05–15:03]).
- Michael Carter: Trending up due to positive reports from coaches. Both hosts like him as a low-end RB2/flex, especially with favorable matchup versus Atlanta ([16:48–17:48]).
- Audric Estime: Volume play only; risky, low-end flex due to uncertainty about his actual share ([19:05–21:01]).
"If you can avoid it, you should. I think there's a lot of wide receivers... that you can flex over either of these guys." – Dave Kluge on the NYJ backfield [19:41]
3. Wide Receiver Rankings & Key Insights
Tier 1 (WR1–WR8): Elite Options
- Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Jameson Williams
- Jameson Williams: Massive opportunity with Sam LaPorta out—offense now consolidated between Amon-Ra, Williams, and running backs. Both are must-starts ([23:27–24:00]).
Tier 2 (WR9–WR17): High-Volume and Red-Hot Targets
- Drake London: Ranked highly if active. Dave expresses a little concern after seeing him move gingerly in a practice video, but both say you start him if he plays ([24:43–25:41]).
- Mike Evans & Chris Godwin: Both back in must-start territory with Evans returning to health. Godwin is a safe WR2 ([26:07–27:37]).
- Jauan Jennings: Must-start WR2 with high target volume due to injuries to 49ers pass-catchers and great recent production ([27:37–29:27]).
- Courtland Sutton: Continues to rack up targets and PPR points with Bo Nix, even during Denver’s late-season collapses ([30:07–30:37]).
- Pat Bryant vs. Troy Franklin: Bryant is the likely WR2 in Denver, but Sean Payton’s unpredictability makes both risky ([30:37–31:42]).
Tier 3 (WR18–WR27): Volume, Talent, and QB Woes
- Jalen Waddle: Cautiously ranked as a fringe WR2 due to low ceiling with Tua out (“Volume is there, but don’t expect 150 and a touchdown—could be 5 catches for 25 yards” [33:23–33:50]).
- Darren Waller: Both would start him confidently at TE given Miami's red zone usage and Bengals' defensive struggles ([34:49–35:22]).
- D.J. Moore: A likely auto-start now with Roma Odunze and Luther Burden confirmed out ([36:11–36:54]).
- Ladd McConkey: Possible bounce-back spot against Dallas if Quentin Johnston is ruled out; low-floor, high-upside play if you survived with him this far ([37:25–39:19]).
- Justin Herbert: Skepticism about him being a top-3 QB this week despite industry consensus (“Where’s that wishing gotten us for the last six weeks with Justin Herbert? I’m sick of just putting him in my lineup and saying a prayer.” [39:47–40:13]).
Tier 4 (WR28–WR38): The “Island of Misfit Toys”
- Michael Wilson: Shows upside, especially in lineups without Marvin Harrison Jr., but both hosts keep him in WR3 range for safety ([41:15–42:17]).
- Brian Thomas Jr.: Still the highest ceiling of the group, but faces professional shadow coverage.
- Adonai Mitchell vs. Emeka Egbuka: Both are close, but the volume play goes to Mitchell; however, the floor is very low ([43:57–44:36]).
- Jaden Reed: Breakout potential with no Christian Watson or strong alternatives for Green Bay—could see 12–15 targets ([46:13–46:57]).
Final Tier (WR39–WR46): Deep-League Dart Throws
- Jalen Coker: Most preferred deep option—ascending, clear WR2, and benefitting from a late-season QB boost ([48:11–48:49]).
- Xavier Worthy, Ke’Shawn Booty, Jerry Jeudy, etc.: Little to no upside, injuries, or offense has checked out.
"The appeal with Worthy is always that he can catch a deep ball from Patrick Mahomes. With no Patrick Mahomes, what is the upside here? He can get peppered with a bunch of inefficient targets... I don't really care about that all that much." – Dave Kluge [50:56]
4. How to Make (and Live With) Tough Start/Sit Calls
(Adonai Mitchell vs. Egbuka and Other “Heartbreak” Decisions)
- Both advise emotional detachment; make calls based on current usage and ceiling, not past performance. Dave’s tongue-in-cheek advice: “Join 100 leagues and you’ll stop caring quite as much.” ([45:21–46:01])
5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Fantasy Playoffs:
"Win, go to the championship. People just want to know who to start. That's it." – Alfredo Brown [03:39]
- On playing through late-season injuries and ambiguity:
"If you can avoid it, you should." – Dave Kluge on starting NYJ RBs [19:41]
- On taking emotion out of start/sit choices:
“At a certain point, you just have to kind of release all of the emotion that is tied to fantasy football... easier said than done.” – Dave Kluge [45:27]
Section Timestamps Guide
| Segment | Timestamps | Focus | |------------------------------|-------------------|------------------------------------------| | Football Weather Debate | 01:31–03:20 | Bad-weather games & football nostalgia | | RB Rankings (Tier 1 & 2) | 03:39–09:50 | Top backs, workload shifts, injuries | | Running Back Sleepers/DPs | 09:50–19:41 | Deep dives, up-and-down options | | WR Tiers and Must-Starts | 23:27–30:07 | Elite WRs & opportunity | | WR2/3 (Start/Sit Dilemmas) | 30:07–46:13 | Risky plays, volume vs. upside | | Sleeper/Dart Throw WRs | 48:11–51:20 | Deep leagues, desperate starts | | How to Handle Start/Sit Fear | 45:06–46:13 | Emotional detachment |
QUICK HITS – Week 16 Insights
- Devon Achane: RB1 upside with Tua out, great Cincy matchup.
- Josh Jacobs: Still a flex/RB2 unless ruled out or announced as 100% healthy.
- Amarion Hampton/Rico Dowdle/Kenneth Gainwell: Volume, but ceilings limited by committee/role changes.
- Michael Carter: Strong flex value this week, low-risk RB2.
- WRs: Jameson Williams & Amon-Ra St. Brown are league-winners with LaPorta out.
- Mike Evans/Chris Godwin are back in business; Jauan Jennings is a must-start.
- Mid-tier Flexes: Jalen Waddle (low ceiling), DJ Moore (auto-start with injuries to teammates), Ladd McConkey (deep league upside).
- Desperation WRs: Jalen Coker > Xavier Worthy > Ke’Shawn Booty/Jerry Jeudy.
- Start/Sit Mentality: Prioritize ceiling and projections, not past emotional ties.
CONCLUSION
This penultimate “start/sit, sleepers & busts” episode for 2025 walks through every meaningful RB/WR scenario for Week 16, offering context-heavy, decisive rankings and rationale. If you need straightforward, tiered advice for semifinals week—whether playing favorites or taking a leap on the unknown—Alfredo and Dave provide the tools (and therapy) to make your best calls.
Notable Quote to Close:
"At a certain point, you just have to kind of release all of the emotion that is tied to fantasy football. Easier said than done." – Dave Kluge [45:27]