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Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Week 2 Overreactions and Storylines || Fantasy Football 2025
01:11:38
In Episode 264 of the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, Dave Kluge and Alfredo Brown discuss some of the biggest storylines from Week 2 and how much they're buying into them. Send your questions to fantasyshow@footballguys.com 🎥....
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- [00:00]
A
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- [00:29]
B
Do you prefer in Dynasty Caleb Johnson or Isaiah Pacheco? Or the bench spot which is also a reasonable answer.
- [00:43]
A
Pass I guess Caleb because like okay, we'll see what it becomes.
- [00:48]
B
That's what we were saying like trade Pacheco for Caleb Johnson I suppose but.
- [00:52]
A
Like I know who's doing that. I'm not doing that.
- [00:55]
B
Like I don't, I don't know if anybody is. Yeah, I mean dude, like I don't.
- [00:58]
A
Think people are giving up on Caleb after two weeks. I think think they're pissed about their investment.
- [01:03]
B
I mean I think Caleb's going to be a zero this year. I think like the only way Caleb Johnson becomes a thing is if Aaron Rodgers leaves after this season and they like rebuild the entire offense. And to Arthur Smith's credit he's good at doing that. Like he, every offense he runs looks different. Like he builds around the personnel he has. But right now when you've got a, a brittle, soon to be 42 year old quarterback in the backfield, Caleb Johnson just can't be out there. Like you need guys that can pass block and he can't do that. I think he's just getting shelved till 2026.
- [01:33]
A
Well I mean there's also like Arthur Smith loves to run play action and that's where Rogers thrives too. And you don't really need a guy that can pass block that well. So like there's ways to put like the band aid over the surgical wound that is Caleb Johnson's pass blocking. But like it's weird because Caleb Johnson does have a lot of Tyler Algier to him and like Arthur Smith loved that. You know a guy that picks up steam as he goes, runs outside really well, can you know, hit, hit the outside zone, get downhill, all that jazz but just like there's no reps and Caleb is a guy that like I don't think he's tremendous but he gets Better with reps, like as the game goes on and that's just not happening. Like it's a real thing. Running backs get better with rhythm and it's just not happening for a bunch of these guys. Like the, we see it every year. We're like, with the rookie running backs, whether it's now it's like Ginty, Hampton, Henderson, all these guys, it's like they'll go in for two or three plays, then come out for five or six plays and they'll come in for one and then sit for three and it's just like they never get into a rhythm and, and then all of a sudden it's like week six and you're like, oh, this guy popped off. See, I told you. Just keep waiting. And like, I'm not saying Caleb is going to be that guy, but like, it wouldn't surprise me if let's say there's an injury to Warren. Caleb gets in there and he's like, average the first game, better the second game. And then all of a sudden by like the third start, we're like, oh, damn, Caleb Johnson actually is kind of decent for football.
- [02:52]
B
I could see that. And I also think like, I, I wonder how much of like the, the pre draft priors bleed into the Caleb Johnson stuff because like the reality is like around three running back, like those guys are more likely to be bus than they are to hit. And I think that people got really excited pre draft and then he fell to round three and everyone was just like, ah, we don't care. Like it's Caleb Johnson and he's going to be the new Naji Harris. And like in reality we probably should have said like, oh, every NFL team passes multiple times.
- [03:20]
A
Yeah, well, I mean it's like it was, I guess I'll make the caveats that it was like a deep running back class. So you kind of felt like you could pick and choose guys where you wanted and but like Caleb Johnson had serious warts. Like he's really only good at a very specific running style. It fit what Arthur. I almost called him Arthur Johnson, what Arthur Smith does. But like, by the way, did you see that the Steelers are like, Caleb Johnson's probably not going to be returning kicks anymore.
- [03:46]
B
I did. And then there was also the Aaron Rodgers this morning saying like, we need to get Jalen Warren the ball more because every time he touches the ball something special happens. So yeah, I, I, it might be curtains for, for Caleb Johnson this year.
- [04:00]
A
I'm, I'm not willing to say it's curtains for anyone in week two. Like, and obviously, like, that's fantasy football, right? Like, if you wait too long, like, you're. You're just wrong and you're gonna sit there holding the bag on stuff. I think that we just don't know. Like, we'll talk about it more in the show. But, like, dude, just like I said with the Saints, like, we don't know. Like, after two weeks, the Saints looked amazing. Right. Like, we really think that the Colts and Daniel Jones are going to be a. A top five offense the rest of the year, while the Chiefs and Eagles are, like, bottom five offenses.
- [04:28]
B
No, of course I doubt it. Yeah. Right. So I just. I was a Caleb Johnson fan to begin with, so I'm just.
- [04:33]
A
No, he was. He was what, my running back? Five. Like, of the. Of, like the big five.
- [04:38]
B
Yeah. I mean, that's also, like, when you look at Dynasty rookie drafts, people are taking him fifth overall. Like, I remember people saying, you got to take him ahead of a Booka and you got to take him ahead of Travis Hunter, and you need to take him ahead of Matthew golden and RJ Harvey and that Trayvon Henderson. That was just a little crazy.
- [05:05]
A
Welcome into the Football Guys Fantasy football show. I'm your host, Alfredo Brown, joined as always. I've got Dave Kluge with me. And guys, today it's the Wednesday Flex Show. This is basically the episode where we are going to talk about anything we really want in fantasy football, but give it the actionable spin from you guys so that you can make your fantasy football teams better. And Dave, I still think we don't know enough about these teams after two weeks, but in certain places, you're starting to see opportunities to maybe buy players, sell players. The trends that are happening, guys, that have already already exceeded our expectations. The NFL for the most part, is giving us these opportunities to make moves in fantasy football.
- [05:43]
B
Yeah, you know, after week one, I do my rest of season rankings and I try to, like, make marginal changes here and there, especially on the really, like, liquid situations, like where we have two running backs, like, going back to back in drafts in the same team, and then in week one, we see, like, who it's favoring, and I'll make those little moves here. But I think week two, then we start to, like, get a better idea. Like, of course we've got situations like the Lions where it's like, okay, we can just throw. Throw week one away as a fluky game. But then there's other situations like the Colts where it's like, okay, now they've done two games and now we're going to pay a little bit more attention to it. But that could still be a trap. Like we were talking about pre show, like Derek Carr last year was the QB2 in fantasy and everyone was saying like, you know, Derek Carr with the offensive coordinator that he's always needed, like this is a new, better team and they just beat the Cowboys and things are great. Then they got pummeled in week three. So I think now I'm hearing all the same narratives about Daniel Jones and the Colts, like, you know, just, just a great, great quarterback offensive coordinator mesh here. And they just beat the, the, the Broncos and like, don't be surprised if they come out and, and you get Derek Card in week three. So we start to see like the starts of trends, but those starts of trends can also end up falling off very abruptly.
- [06:49]
A
Yeah, I mean it's. We saw like what it did from week one to week two. Like in week one, we're saying the Lions, the offense might be cooked without Ben Johnson. And then they come out and they hang, what was it, a 50 burger? Like.
- [07:00]
B
Like 51?
- [07:02]
A
Yeah, 51. Like they go out and have this insane, insane game. And then we're talking about who would you rather start your team with, JJ McCarthy or Caleb Williams? And then like JJ McCarthy goes out and puts a stinker on the field and it's just like guys, after one week, we really don't know enough about these teams, these players. And I honestly do think after two weeks we still don't know enough about these players. But I think we can make some. I don't want to use this term, but I'm gonna have to some pretty good educated guesses on what is going to happen going forward. Forward because of the things we can see on film or what's in the data. So, Dave, we each have five observations that we've came come up with after this last week. Why don't you kick us off with your first one and how you think it's going to help fantasy managers.
- [07:41]
B
So we're still kind of overreacting here, I think is like the theme of this show still. And how about this for an overreaction? Kenan Allen is going to make lad McConkey a fantasy bust. And people are just panicked right now. Like if you look at.
- [07:54]
A
What do you define as a bust?
- [07:56]
B
Not living up to his ADP coming up well short of his ADP. And we got to remember like lad McConkey was still getting drafted in round two even after Keenan Allen Was there. And when you look at this wide receiver room right now, lad McConkey is third on the team in receiving yards. Like, it's Quentin Johnson, Keenan Allen, and then lad McConkey. Now, I don't think that lad McConkey is ever going to be like, oh, I've got to bench this player. Like, he's just terrible right now. But I think we drafted him expecting a big step forward in year two. And right now he's pacing to take a step backwards. You know, 120 targets, 94 receptions and just over a thousand yards. That. That is very short of what we expected when we drafted him in round two. And I was hoping that I could, like, go to the film and like, find something that would give me hope. And I gotta be honest, like, after digging into it, I think I'm left with even more question marks. You know, last year we saw Lad Bikanki was just in a great role where he was getting like the really short, easy intermediate targets, the stuff near the line of scrimmage, the things that allowed him to create after the catch that allowed him to rack up a lot of catches. And then we also saw the big plays downfield where he was playing outside and he was getting behind defenses. Well, now Keenan Allen gets a lot of those short targets when they get near the end zone. Justin Field or Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, they have a connection that they've been, you know, developing for years. And he's going to look Keenan Allen's way near the red zone. And then on the big plays, we see Quinton Johnston now is kind of taking a step forward in his development and he can make those big plays. So I think that there's still going to be an enough volume here to make lad McConkey somebody that you're putting in your lineup every single week. I still think that he's the best receiver on the team as well, but I am starting to expect some regression from last year. You know, we were hoping that this guy would just be like a top five wide receiver, take that big step forward in year two. And it's just such a crowded room there in Los Angeles that I think we need to start looking at lad McConkey as more of like a middling to high end wide receiver, too, than the wide receiver one you drafted him to be. Be.
- [09:51]
A
Well, I mean, I think both you and I had him at. As What? Wide receiver, 12 or 13. Like he was.
- [09:56]
B
I was. I was a little more bullish on him. I had him at wide receiver 9 in my draft rankings and.
- [10:00]
A
Oh, okay, okay.
- [10:01]
B
Owning up to it. You know, that was probably not the best call. I, I was very aggressive on Keenan Allen. I was aggressive on Quentin Johnson as well. But I still thought that lad McConkey would do okay. And maybe this is just overreacting because he hasn't found the end zone yet. You know, if he finds pater, we're probably not panicking whatsoever, but, you know, it hasn't been great through the first couple of weeks.
- [10:21]
A
Yeah, I think there's a little bit of, like, what is most likely to happen. Right. So right now, sure, it doesn't look great in the fantasy stat sheet, but I was taking a look at it and we've still got lad McConkey on 23% target share. Right now. It's. It's 14 targets through two games. Like, it's not terrible. Like, it's not a complete negative here. I think you have to ask yourself a couple of things. Is, like, is the Quinton Johnston touchdown rate going to be sustainable? Is Keenan Allen light at his age and with his injuries likely to make it through a full season? I'm not suggesting that these things need to go wrong for McConkey to have a good season. It can still happen. Because there's also questions. Can McConkey make it through the full season? Right. I think the big thing to take away from here, though, is that the Chargers are going to be passing the ball more. You talked about this on, on Monday's show. Like, the Chargers are going to be passing the ball more. So it's like, even if the target share isn't as big as we wanted it to be, the. The pie itself of passing has gotten bigger. So I'm not that worried. I don't know that he's necessarily a bust. I think, like, I had him probably around wide receiver 12 pre draft, and I think it's most likely that he's probably around something wide receiver 16, 17, 18 in that range, you know, mid to. Like you said, mid to low end wide receiver, too. I don't know that I call it a bust. I think it's just slightly disappointing. I think when it's something like a Tyree Kill from last year where you draft him early and he's not even finishing top 24, like, that's where it just sinks your fantasy team.
- [11:49]
B
Yeah. And, and, and I don't think he's gonna like, sink your fantasy team, but I, I do think also that, like, you are looking for ceiling with those early picks. And I think if you're drafting a guy and you expect him to, you know, take this step forward in year two, which isn't uncommon at all for a guy to look really good as a rookie and then look even better in year two. And I think that we're going to look at less production now in year two than we got in year one. And that's just not something I want to see for a young player. It almost kind of reminds me, like, remember, like, Melvin Gordon, a very, very good running back. I'm talking about the same team here, but, like, he lost out on goal line work and passing down work in that offense. So while he was clearly like one of the most talented running backs in the league, he wasn't getting the passing down work, he wasn't getting the touchdowns, and it kind of made him frustrating in fantasy. And now with lad McConkey, like, he's clearly the best wide receiver on the team, but if he's not getting all the looks near the red zone and he's not getting the big plays behind the defenses as well, it makes him a very valuable football player, but just a little less valuable in fantasy.
- [12:45]
A
So then what are you doing with Makonke? Are you, are you trying to trade for him? Are you holding him if you had him, if you have him, are you trying to sell him to someone who believes they're, they're buying low?
- [12:54]
B
Now, I think that's, that's where it gets interesting. Like, I don't think that you should just sell him for the sake of selling him, but we're going to talk about some risers on the show as well, and I think, like, if you could trade Alad Makaki for a Roma Dun, maybe or a Tet McMillan, these other young running backs that are ascending, I'd be very interested in making those moves.
- [13:12]
A
Oh, that's interesting. That is very interesting because I kind of, I kind of look at it as, like, you mentioned Roman Dunes, specifically, I would trade Roma Dunes a for lad McConkey, like, like right now, like, I, I, I think I, I liked Roma Dunes, obviously better as a prospect, but it's, it's, once again, it's like the touchdowns, the target rates. Are these things sustainable or is it just, you know, the first couple of weeks, what we've got going on here. I'm intrigued by that. I'm intrigued. All right. I'm gonna give you my first observation here, and it's that I think we don't quite know what the Jaguars are yet, and I know that the vibes are atrocious with the Jaguars, but I'm willing to bet and I made a trade in my home fantasy league with my college and high school buddies that I will reveal at the end. That kind of puts my money where my mouth is. But I, I am willing to buy low on Brian Thomas or Travis Hunter and sell high on Travis etn. I think that what we've seen so far, Brian Thomas 19 targets through these two games and I know it's just like it doesn't look good and you're going to see the bad highlights where he's alligator arming things, but I kind of go back to what is most likely. Are we going to see the Jaguars have Diami Brown, Breton Strange and Parker Washington as their top three leading receivers throughout the rest of the year? Probably not. Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas lead the team in targets, but they don't have the receiving yards, they don't have the touchdowns that we're looking for. And that's something that I think obviously changes now. Just because we weren't, you know, you and I weren't Drafting Brian Thomas Jr. At his ADP doesn't mean that the cost isn't way better now. Like if a lot of people were looking at him as a maybe late first, early second in drafts, you and I were looking a little bit differently. I'd say the equivalent trade cost now is probably something closer to like a fourth or fifth round pick. Like there's a lot of people that are very, very out on Brian Thomas Jr. And, and I'll like, I'll talk about my trade that I did a little bit later. But the Jaguars have some extremely challenging opponents coming up who are very, very good against running backs. It's not going to be an easy schedule for Travis etn. They actually have the number one hardest remaining strength of schedule for running backs and the sixth easiest remaining strength of schedule for wide receivers. This is not a defense that is overwhelming to other teams and this is an offense that's going to have to get going with Trevor Lawrence in this passing game if they're actually going to win games, like, they have to stay in it. So I definitely see a turnaround here for the wide receivers and at the cost for each of these guys, Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, I'm willing to buy it on them.
- [15:47]
B
Yeah, I think Hunter scares me a little bit just because like we did see last week that he did play more snaps on defense than he did on offense and he didn't pay more.
- [15:56]
A
On defense than he did on offense.
- [15:58]
B
Yeah, he did. He Had a higher rate and more total snaps than he did on offense. Like he was. I forget the exact numbers off the top of my head. I want to say it was like a 49 and 48. It was really, really close. But he played one more snap on defense than he played on offense and that's what kind of scares me a little bit here. The nice thing though is that Liam Cohen has shown his cards. Like going into week one he said Travis Hunter is going to be mostly on offense. And then going into week two, he said Travis Hunter is going to play mostly on def. So I do wonder if it would just be as simple as like Liam Cohen telling us every single week. But also when I go back and I watch the game, Brian Thomas Jr. Was not in a role that he should be in last week. Like, this is not the type of player he is. He isn't a catching a ball through traffic across the middle of the field type of receiver. He is a straight line speed guy who can get behind defenses and make the big play. So I think that what they tried doing last year, like there are very specific roles in Liam Cohen's offense and Travis Hunter has kind of been playing in that slot role, that Chris Godwin role, the, the catching the short balls across the middle of the field role. And he did that pretty well in week one. You know, didn't make a lot after the catch and didn't score a touchdown, but still pulled the targets and looked decent in that role. And then I think in week two, with the game plan being to have Travis Hunter more on defense to help break up the past game for Cincinnati, they kind of put Brian Thomas Jr. Into that high volume across the middle of the field role. And I've got to imagine that when Liam Cohen goes back and looks at that tape, he says, I was trying to squid a fit a square peg into a round hole here. Like this isn't what Brian Thomas Jr. Is supposed to do. So I hope that he can kind of get the players back into the spots that they belong in.
- [17:36]
A
So you're absolutely right. Travis Hunter did play one more defensive snap than he did offensive. I'm wondering how much of that is game script dependent. I wonder how much of that is trying to get him reps early in the season.
- [17:47]
B
I mean, he did what he was supposed to on defense too. Like he isn't, yeah, a blitzing, smashing running back in the a gap type of defensive back. He is a ball skill guy and there were multiple plays that like he broke up passes, which is exactly what they were hoping he'd do so that, that's kind of what scares me do is like he looked good on defense and it's like now they might want to get him more on defense because he excelled in that role. So I'm a little bit scared. But like I said, I'm just hopeful that like I mentioned Travis Hunter this week, but I'm hoping that we see him back on offense, back in that slot roll catching those short targets across the middle of the field, and assuming he does that, then going forward, I'm much more confident putting him in my flex.
- [18:26]
A
Yeah, I'll say this. The. The offensive snaps were the exact same from week one to week two. 42 snaps. Obviously percentages change, but as long as.
- [18:34]
B
The offensive role plays.
- [18:36]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. As long as like the, the role doesn't diminish on offense, I'm not that worried. What I like if we start to see that it diminishes, then like, yeah, obviously, like that's going to be it. Something that you and I have sort of said throughout the offseason is I don't think you go and make that trade and you make that move for Travis Hunter to not use him as a wide receiver at least as much as you should be. Right. So I, I think it might end up being game script dependent, which could be a little worrisome. You're right there. I'll say this, just a little teaser to that trade I did. Travis Hunter was one of the guys I traded away because I needed to make sure I was giving up some value as well. So, Dave, why don't you hit us with your next takeaway from week two going into week three?
- [19:17]
B
You know, I don't even think that this is like a hot take or an overreaction. I just want to talk about Tucker Kraft. I've got him as my tight end for rest of season and a lot of people are probably going to say, like, whoa, whoa, you're overreacting. But like, I think this is more of an indictment on like, how bad the tight end market is right now because T.J. hawkinson's been terrible. Mark Andrews has been terrible, Travis Kelce has been terrible. So, you know, moving those guys down just makes it really easy to move Tucker Kraft up. And one of the knocks that I heard against Tucker Kraft this offseason I think is very well warranted. Like, he isn't a very natural route runner. He's not a guy who is going to be beating man coverage. But when I went back and I watched how he's been utilized over the last couple of weeks, that doesn't matter. Like, I really don't care where he struggles because Matt LaFleur is so good at drawing up opportunities to get him the ball. The first target of the game. Exactly what I want to see. Like they run a play action play. And I think what Tucker Kraft does better than almost any tight end in the league is selling the play action like Alfredo. You watch film, you know how this is. You see it all the time where like the tight end will just kind of like throw a forearm, throw a little chip block, and then release Tucker Craft, like fully engages his blocker. Like he will get up under the pads, push him back and then throw him to the side and then he's just wide open in the flat. And over half of his target so far this year have come on those play action plays where he's able to just really, really sell it, get out in the flat. The first ball that he called caught, he didn't have anybody within 15 yards of him. Like, he was just wide open because Josh Jacobs is good. The packers run game is good and defenses have to play the play action honestly. Even on the, the, the big 57 yard play, you know, that that was awesome. Like, I loved that play design. First of all, like, Matt Lafleur coming out in 13 personnel with Savion Williams as the lone receiver on the play, immediately tips the hand of the defense like, oh, this is very clearly going to be a run. They've got three tight ends out here, they've got Savion Williams who's a good blocker, but then they throw Savion Williams in motion and you can see that it's his own defense. And it was just such a savvy play by Matt Lafleur to draw up. Savion Williams coming off of motion, you know, has a full head of steam and he just takes off downfield and everybody kind of gravitates towards Savion Williams and Tucker Kraft just kind of trails him 15 yards behind. So while everybody's moving towards Savion Williams not wanting to give up the D play, there's Tucker Craft just like wide open, ready for it. And when he's open like that, Jordan Love is good enough to just put it on a player. So a lot of this, sure, like we can nitpick his footwork and his route running and his release package and all this sort of stuff, but it doesn't matter in this offense. Matt LaFleur realizes the type of player that Tucker Kraft is and they are going to scheme up touches to get him the ball where he's got green in front of him. And if you're a defender and Tucker Kraft has 15 yards to pick up speed and he's coming right towards you, good luck bringing him down. Like this dude is a runaway freight train. So yeah, I'm not going to get too hung up on like the, the little nitpicks about his profile. He's just in a great offensive environment and he is just a freight trainer with the ball in his hands. For me it's Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, those are the only guys I prefer ahead of Tucker Craft for the rest of the season.
- [22:18]
A
So interestingly enough, I am McBride Bowers. I'm still keeping KD at tight end three and then I've got crafted four, Warren at five.
- [22:28]
B
I mean it's, it's IR. Like if Kittle was healthy he'd be ahead of him. But yeah, missing the next three weeks at least.
- [22:34]
A
Yeah, I mean what makes Tucker Craft so good is just his ability with the ball in his hands like to create and continue to get yards after the catch. What I liked most, and this is actually, I think it just, it's a good segue into the guy that I want to talk about because he's also on the Packers. But what I liked most with Tucker Kraft was that there were plays that were being drawn up specifically for him. It's not just that he was some sort of a security blanket for Jordan Love. It's not like he was the third read and it was some backyard ball. These were plays that were getting drawn up specifically for him. And a lot of times what we were seeing too is because I think the packers are figuring out what their passing game is going to be is they were doing a lot of clear out stuff. And that leads me into my talk here about Matthew golden. And I think that Matthew golden is going to be the packers wide receiver one soon enough. A lot of what we saw in this last game was a lot of clear out, a lot of hey, Matt Golden, Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wicks, clear out. I saw so many cardio routes for Matthew golden and a bunch of these other guys where it was just clear out so we can dump the ball off the Josh Jacobs clear out so we can dump the ball off Tucker Kraft. Clear out, clear out, clear out. On a couple of these though, Matthew golden could have had two really big plays and I actually hate that these were his only two targets. And the timing just doesn't seem to be there with Jordan Love yet, but when it is, this thing can seriously pop off. It was right now two targets in week two, league high average depth target of 40 yards last week. Just insane. That's basically all he's getting used for is just these throws that are downfield for big plays. The throws just barely missed. The first one was that it could have been a touchdown but Jordan Love under threw it and it gave the defender time to catch up and knock the ball away. And the second one was Matthew golden running full speed and it was still just one yard out of reach. So once that timing gets locked in there, we're talking about potentially two targets, two receptions for 100 yards and two touchdowns here. Like we're talking about something crazy. And I'm not suggesting that's the kind of thing you need to buy into. But what I am saying here is they're going to be needing to look for playmakers. Dave, you and I, I remember I saw you talking about this with some of the other guys at football guys, Jaden Reed, him being out, I know he had the collarbone thing, but he also got his Jones fracture surgically repaired.
- [24:49]
B
Which could lead out for the season.
- [24:51]
A
Yeah, that's what I was going to say is it could lead to a much longer time off the field for him, which means this team's going to need to have a wide receiver step up. And I know we, we've, we've seen sort of what Romeo Dobbs can be and I think we get it. I think there's still people that have a candle lit for Dontavian Wicks and what he can be. And he's not a, a bad prospect or a bad player by any means, just inconsistent. The door's wide open for Matthew golden here to be the wide receiver one on this offense. Now what that means for fantasy, I don't know because wide receiver ones for fantasy could mean a wide receiver two or three on any other team. It depends on how much they're going to throw the ball. But Dave, the Matthew golden door seems to be very wide open. I just want to see the usage a little bit different. They've sort of got him in the Christian Watson role at Texas when he was in college. Averaged up the target was 12 yards. Here in Green Bay, he's looking at almost double that at 22 and a half, the sixth most in the NFL right now. We're just kind of seeing that. I don't think they're giving him the full menu of routes yet in the offensive game. Plan.
- [25:50]
B
Yeah. And I think that the, the biggest thing for me because like, I wasn't too inspired by the usage over the first couple of weeks. It does kind of feel like Xavier Worthy last year, remember, like Xavier Worthy early in the year, like just kept having these like near misses and it's like, oh my God, if they could just dial it in and like start connecting on these deep plays, Worthy's going to explode. And then everything just went haywire. Rashid Rice got hurt. They had to change Xavier Worthy's role. But that's kind of what it feels like now. Like they're just so close. Like we could easily be talking about Matthew golden coming off of a Thursday night performance where he had two yards and two touchdowns. Like it was, you know, really, really close to having a big game. But I think the biggest thing is that Jaden Reed is injured now. Like, Jaden Reed is a very, very good player and Matthew golden can do a lot of the same things that Jaden Reed can do. And I'd argue that he can do more than Jaden Reed can do when it comes to like beating press coverage, playing out wide. You know, that was kind of a limitation of Jaden Reed. So I think that a lot of those schemed up touches where you would see Jaden Reed go in motion before the snap and kind of setting up clear out routes to get him out in space downfield, that should go to Golden. Now I, I still think Dobbs is just a very underrated receiver. You know, he's going to be on the field quite a lot too. He doesn't have the same efficiency on his targets that, that a guy like Matthew Golding can. I think Dobbs is probably going to be the target leader in the wide receiver group, but I could easily see golden being the type of guy who's averaging so much per target and scoring so frequently that he ends up being the top scoring receiver in this offense.
- [27:17]
A
And that's the thing is I think that we're going to see is that like you can only be held back by targets so often if you start making plays that the targets then start to just gravitate towards you. I just don't think they've given him the full assortment of, of routes yet. I mean, it'd be silly for the packers to not utilize their first round pick more and in more creative ways given that Jaden Reed is out for potentially the season. Because right now the route participation is there. 92% route participation for Matthew Golden. He's playing in two wide receiver sets, three wide receiver sets. Like you said, he. Outside, inside. I'm it. A lot of this is us saying, be patient with the rookies. Be patient with the rookies. And we're not really going to talk about them today. But all the rookie running backs that everyone's panicking on, for the most part, you can just be patient with them. Like, guys, this is just. This is just. The thing is give these rookies time to get in there, get the playbook, and allow for coaches to open things up a bit more.
- [28:10]
B
And the last thing I'll say too, is like, I've heard people say, like, oh, Jaden Reed knocked out in the first drive and Matthew golden still only got two targets. I think a lot of people, like, just don't understand, like, the weak weekly game planning that goes into, like, how NFL coaches operate. And, and, and we want so easily to just like, oh, on the fly. Let's just change the whole game plan and make Matthew golden the part of the offense now. But we saw that a lot of those touches that would typically go to Jaden Reed ended up going to Don Tavian Wicks because he's a guy who's been in the offense for a long time and he could step into that role. This is so similar to week one, where Xavier Worthy got knocked out very early in the game. Marquis Brown gobbled up 16 targets. Everybody went crazy over Marquis Brown, and I said, you know, with a week to regroup, I doubt that they make Marquis Brown the offensive focal point. And sure enough, he comes out with five targets the next week. And I think that now they were kind of pushed into a position where Don Tavian Wicks was the focal point as the guy who got dropped into Jaden Reed's role. But I think now with a week to regroup, we're going to see the targets getting funneled more towards Matthew golden and not to Don Tamian Wicks.
- [29:11]
A
It is exactly, exactly that. All right, Dave, give us your next one.
- [29:16]
B
He said we weren't going to talk about rookie running backs, but I kind of want to talk about these rookie running backs because people are panicking about them. And, you know, in the, the. The theme of overreacting. Oh, no, Alfredo. We overdrafted every rookie running back. They all suck. Should I drop them for J.K. dobbins? I mean, that's, you know, being a little over dramatic, but that's kind of what I'm hearing right now. And everybody just here, just take a deep breath. It's gonna be okay. Like, we go through this every single Year. These rookies get off to slow starts. Alfredo, we've, we've done like 250 something shows. Now at this point, how many times have we said to exercise patience when you draft rookies?
- [29:54]
A
Every single time. And every time we talk about them.
- [29:58]
B
Yeah. And here we are two weeks in, everybody's panicking. I don't know about you. I watched Ash and Jinti's tape and he looks pretty darn good. Like everything that we liked about him at Boise State. The contact balance, the burst, the aggression. And sure, like Zamir White and Dylan Lobby are a little bit more involved than we expected them to be. The offensive line isn't great, but like, this is still a guy who's getting a lot of touches and has a lot of talent. I don't know how much more you can want from that. Omarion Hampton, we knew this. Like, Greg Roman likes to have two running backs out there. Najee Harris is not a slouch. He's going to get some touches. But we drafted Omarion Hampton because he is a great athlete and he's got big play upside. And even if he's splitting a backfield, he can still make big plays. RJ Harvey, right now, sure, he lost some snaps to Tyler Bidet and Adam Prentice last week. He might be in the doghouse for missing some pass blocking assignments, but you saw the upside in week one when he had this beautiful run up the middle for 40 something yards. Trayon Henderson missed some pass blocking assignments and he's in the doghouse. But that big catch and run from Radre Stevenson they said was drawn up for Trayvon Henderson. And I think with a week to regroup and like, help him, these are still developmental guys. Like, they are playing a very different game than what they've played for the last three or four years in college. The game is faster, it's bigger, it's stronger, and it takes some time to acclimate. But I see so many people panicking about all of these rookie running backs. And, and I'm just here to tell you, chill out, it's going to be okay. Like, if people are selling and panicking on these rookie running backs, go out and buy them. Because I, I still, I, I haven't seen anything. And, and I'm talking about these four specifically. You know, Hampton, Jinty, Henderson and Harvey. I haven't seen anything from these guys that causes any panic for me yet.
- [31:42]
A
No, no. I mean, the only one that I would give some pushback on is Harvey. And it's just simply because of who Sean Payton is right. Like, he's going to, he's going to want to use multiple running backs. And the offensive game plan is so weird to try to predict. He's got a few things that he needs to iron out. But like Ashton Jinty, Come on, guys. We like, we know what we have there with Samir White and Dylan Lobby, like, the, the touches are not going away from Ginty. There's also a thing of just like when the game is out of reach and your offense is playing that bad, Geno Smith throws three interceptions.
- [32:16]
B
They're just gonna put him on, on ice and like just say, you know, look onto week three.
- [32:20]
A
Yeah, yeah. And I know, like, there's. People are gonna say, well, it's concerning the two minute drill. Dylan Lobby comes in, don't worry, they're gonna use Ashton Dinty more as the season goes on. And with Omarion Hampton, I think a lot of that too was just people were leaning into Naji Harris might miss the whole season because of his eye. And then the ADP got steamed up like, he should not have been going in the middle of round two. And early round two, we're seeing him. And even late round two, like, Omarion Hampton was probably a third to fourth round pick. And Treveon Henderson got steamed up to the third and fourth round. He probably should have been a fifth or sixth round pick. So it's like, these players are not bad and patience needs to be exercised. What people are freaking out about is where they drafted them and the early returns as opposed to why they drafted them, which is what they could be when it matters. And that's why, like, just go back to patience and when it matters. These players are too talented. I tweeted something earlier. I wish I had it in front of me here. But like, you go back to the first few weeks, I'm trying to scramble and find it as fast as I.
- [33:23]
B
Can that like, Christian McCaffrey was averaging like 2.1 yards per carry through his first two weeks. And I remember everyone panicking like, oh, I drafted this guy in round three. Like, but yeah, just chill, chill out.
- [33:35]
A
I got it right here. He stole that from me, by the way. I'm just kidding. He didn't. Ryan, you're great. Yeah, like, so some notable running backs had rough starts. Ken Walker III as a rookie, he was the running back 67 through the first four weeks. Jameer Gibbs was the running back 33 through the first four weeks. Bucky Irving, obviously not the same ADP, but he was running back 41 through the first five weeks, Devon Achan, another guy. Like there are so many of these players, whether they were first round picks, second round picks, third round pick picks, whatever. It takes time. It takes time. They become the league winners. Just exercise some patience here.
- [34:06]
B
Can we just laugh a little bit that you know how everybody was like terrified to draft Rashi Rice because he'd be missing the first six weeks. Meanwhile, they were drafting Travion Henderson and RJ Harvey and Matthew golden and Travis Hunter ahead of Rashi Rice. I don't know about you, but I'd much prefer 0 points in my, my bench than 3 or 4 points in my flex spot. But I digress.
- [34:32]
A
The fantasy gods look at us and laugh when we think we're making our decisions. All right, I, I want to talk about another rookie here and this has been a very rookie centric episode and that's because I think that's where a lot of people have most of their concerns. This one's not a concern. Well, for me it is. But a lot of people are very, very excited about a Mecha Igbuka and I think for good reason. Mechag book is a very talented player. And I want to put a caveat on this. This. I do think that this might be the highest that a Mecca Igbuka is valued throughout the season right now because he is the wide receiver 10 in fantasy at the moment. And I think, and I'm not saying you need to, but I think if you get the right price and you can make the right move. A Mecca Igbuka is a sell candidate in fantasy because of potential touchdown regression that could be on the horizon in here. And I'm saying, I'm not saying he's a must sell. I'm saying he is a guy that you go out and you can trade him for a Drake London or a Nico Collins, someone who is very, very fresh or an Ashton Jinty, someone who's very frustrated with underperforming players early in the season and they see Egbuca and they remember the hype and they're like, man, three touchdowns already. He is the offense. Well, let's back up a little bit and look at the thousand foot view here. I'm not saying Chris Godwin coming back is going to derail Egbuca, but it's not going to help, especially when igbuka's got an 18% target share on the season. He's wide receiver 39 in target share. He's wide receiver 40 in targets. He's wide receiver 72 in targets per run. Which is like that's, that's when you're really looking at, when he's on the field, is he getting looked at. And some of these targets have been screens and real easy first read targets. And so there are manufactured touches. But simply stated, not enough. Not enough. Where I'm saying, man, Chris Godwin is out. Is out. Like Igbuka should be looking at eight, nine targets a game. I'd actually much rather prefer to see the targets over the touchdowns right now and, you know, see if the touchdowns come. But the 23 touchdown rate just does not seem sustainable. Three touchdowns on eight receptions. I do love the player. I'm on a lot of teams. I am holding him. But I mentioned that trade earlier in the show and the one that I did and a lot of the players I'm talking about are involved in that trade. I traded away a Mecca, Igbuka and I got one of the players that we've already talked about in return. Dave, where are you at with Igbuka? Because some of the names that I think you could trade for, trade him for Drake London, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. A.J. brown.
- [37:01]
B
Yeah, I, I mean if you can get that, I, I don't think I'd want A.J. brown. I am very concerned about the Eagles offense. Yeah. Looking at my rest of season rankings, I've got Zay Flowers ahead of him, Jameson Williams, T. Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Teddy Roll, McMillan, Devonte Adams.
- [37:17]
A
And then once again, this is not a knock like these are, this is not a knock on Igbuka. I think this is just a rationale. Yeah, yeah. Like he is a wide receiver too. Yeah, he's a wide receiver too. Rest of the season. I just don't think he should be valued as a top 10 guy.
- [37:31]
B
So I know you went back and watched the film, but did you see how close we were to getting that fourth touchdown too? Like we're. Ibuka like ball hit him in the hands 40 yards downfield and that was just so frustrating to see like that. That would have been awesome. Would have been the first player ever to have four receiving touchdowns in his first two games. I, I do understand the pause because I was looking like through the top 40 receivers, a bigger chunk of Ibuka's production has come from touchdowns than any other receiver. And I mean that's just naturally going to skew his value a little bit. I do like that he gets a lot of the easy looks in the offense. You know, he's getting the little hitch routes out of the slot, he's getting the pop passes and the screens and the end arounds. And I think that stuff does raise his floor a little bit while also making his efficiency look a little bit murky. So I do like that he's getting a lot of those layups. But like you said, a lot of those layups typically go to Chris Godwin, and when he returns, we might not see that same usage going forward. So, yeah, I mean, I, I threw some names out there that I'd prefer. I think Zay Flowers is probably like the, the lowest ranked wide receiver that I'd prefer ahead of a Buka. But like right now, behind a Buka, Travis Hu, Jaylen Waddle, Tyree Hill, Devonta Smith, Roma Dun A, Cortland Sutton. Like, I would prefer Abuka ahead of all those guys. Maybe not Roma Dunes. A. Dunes is close.
- [38:44]
A
I was gonna ask Roma Dunes was the specific one, because that's different. He's getting touchdowns and targets. Everything looks amazing for him. Like, he looks like everything we've wanted Marvin Harrison Jr. To be.
- [38:55]
B
Yeah. I almost wonder if DJ Moore just, like, isn't a good fit for this offense. I think he does. He gets traded too much. I, I do. And I, I said that on last night's Dynasty show when I was recording with Jeff Bell. I just don't think he's a good, good fit for the offense. And like, right now they have these developmental pieces that they invested a lot of draft capital in that are just wasting away on the bench. And like, every day that Colson Loveland and Luther Burden can't get on the field and play a full snapchair hurts their chances of developing into a good weapon. So another thing is that, like, so much of Ben Johnson's offense is predicated on timing and being at your spot and being where you're supposed to be. And DJ Moore is more of a freelance guy. Like, his best plays come when the play kind of breaks down and he's able to find a soft spot spot, work his way back to the ball. And it's just not seeming like a great fit in this Ben Johnson offense. So I think he is a likely trade candidate just because then it opens up the door for them to start getting more reps for Colson Loveland and getting more reps for Luther Burden and developing these developmental pieces that they drafted this year.
- [39:57]
A
DJ More to the Kansas City Chiefs.
- [39:59]
B
Yeah, I mean, that's, that's like a perfect fit. That's exactly what they need in that offense. Of course, Xavier Worthy could come back this week and Rashi Rice could be back. You know by week seven. And that would just be unbelievable if like this team goes from like Taekwond Thornton and Marquis Brown to Xavier Worthy, Rashi Rice and DJ Moore. Yeah. Buy your Chiefs players now while you can. If that's the case.
- [40:21]
A
Just we're going off on this tangent. Is there anywhere else you think you could see him? DJ Moore? I'm trying to think like I'm looking. There's Green Bay, there's.
- [40:31]
B
There's no way they're trading him to Green Bay.
- [40:33]
A
Right. Like I can't imagine they would do.
- [40:35]
B
It, but like that's where of Chicago to the ground if that happened.
- [40:41]
A
Yeah, like I don't. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's been looking for more receivers.
- [40:45]
B
Pittsburgh makes sense. But I think that DJ Moore has the same issue that DK Metcalf does where like he's not a timing receiver. Like he is an off script guy. And I think that just kind of snowballs the issues that they're having in Pittsburgh right now. I think Kansas City makes the most sense. Washington, I know they already invested Bills would make some sense too. I mean they spread the ball so thin there and then Washington, like I know they traded for Debo Samuel this year, but you know, if they're, they're really pushing the chips in. Well, they got Jaden Daniels on his contract. I don't know if they can make the salary cap work. That's the problem is, you know, DJ Moore sitting on 100 billion dollar contract, but wouldn't be surprised if we they see the Bears try to move off of him.
- [41:23]
A
All right, let's go to. We each have a couple more left here. We're gonna have to hurry up through these. So why don't you give us your next takeaway.
- [41:30]
B
Tedro McMillan will be a wide receiver one this year. I know like the theme is overreaction. I don't even know if I'm overreacting here. Like this dude is good. Like good, good, good yards right now. What was that?
- [41:44]
A
I said you are reacting.
- [41:46]
B
Yeah, and yeah, maybe I'm overreacting. Maybe I'm reacting. I don't know. But like right now I, I think that this is like we talk about buy lows all the time and I don't think there really are buy lows in fantasy. It's a term that we throw around. But like right now I don't think people have really caught on to at Duro McMillan yet and what he's doing because he hasn't got a touchdown. So like in fantasy scoring, he's not Doing great. He's like outside of the top 24, but he's eighth in yards, he's 11th in targets. I know a lot of that came off of Bryce Young throwing 55 pass attempts last week, but he looks so good. Like, I went back to the film and was just blown away by how good he looks. Like he is just a silky smooth mover. He can make the contested catches, he can make plays after the catch. I think the one thing is that he doesn't have like the elite breakaway speed. Like, there was one play that he caught, it was like a deep post across the middle. He caught the ball, had some space in front of him and like, in my mind I was like, that should be a touchdown. And he got chased down and caught. And that's the issue when you're a 4 or 5 runner. But still, like, he had a nice fade to the end zone that, that Bryce is young, just short armed for whatever reason. And he wasn't able to come down with. He had another spectacular sideline catch where like half of a foot was out of bounds and it didn't count as a catch. But like he was just draped by a defender and was able to get up, catch the ball with one hand and come down with it. We're seeing the deep crossers that allow him to make after the catch. We see the boundary shots, we see the fades in the end zones. To me, and I know we kind of talked about this in the preseason, but he's doing all the things that Mike Evans did in 2023 when he was playing in a Dave Canalis offense in Tampa Bay. And that's the exact plan that they had for Tedaro McMillan and they're rolling it out now. I gotta say, man, after diving into the film, like, I think this guy is legitimately a top 10 wide receiver from a talent, talent perspective. Now, you know, of course the, the Panthers and, and Bryce Young and all those things can convolute the fantasy discussion a little bit, but the talent is there. And I'm just a believer in betting on talent. And I think that he can emerge as a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy by the end of this year.
- [43:41]
A
Oh, it's incredibly realistic for him to be a top 12 fantasy wide receiver. I think right now I probably have him in the top 15. Like he's ahead of guys like T. Higgins, Marvin Harrison Jr. I think you can make arguments that he's ahead of guys like AJ Brown and some of these other receivers that have performing so far.
- [43:59]
B
So he's my wide receiver 13. And I've got him ahead of Garrett Wilson at this point, too. So, like, the, the guys that I have ahead of him, like, Brian Thomas Jr. Is still a spot ahead of him, but, like, I might be willing to move Brian Thomas Jr. For Tetero McMillan right now. Devonte Adams, lad McConkey, Nico Collins, these are all guys that are, like, trending down while Tetero McMillan is trending up. So I've got him at wide receiver 13 in my rest of season rankings. So, like, he's already on the fringe of being a wide receiver one. Like I said, he's trending up. A lot of the guys directly in front of him are trending down. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if, like, Tedro McMillan ends up having that, like, big rookie season, league winning year that we'd hoped for.
- [44:37]
A
I mean, that's why we were drafting and where we were, right? Like, not trying to pat ourselves in the back. But that was the whole point of wanting to draft Tetero and McMillan in the fifth round as often as you can. It's just like, take him where you think he can finish the end of the year year. But Dave, something you mentioned here is, like, guys that are trending down, players that are trending up in terms of, like, rest of season rankings. If Teterro McMillan is trending up and a guy like a Brian Thomas Jr. Is trending down in. In, like, for. I mean, all intents and purposes, is that the trade you're wanting to make where it's like a. Are you seeing it as, like, that's a fair trade, or are you seeing it as you're losing out? Because I know a lot of people want to do the whole buy low, sell high thing. And, and I, I do ask, like, what is sustainable throughout the year. I think both of those guys have. I would actually say it's. It's probably a fair deal. I think I slightly lean Brian Thomas Jr. But not by much.
- [45:33]
B
Yeah. And I think, like, for me, you know, Tedro McMillan was just like a random year three, year four guy putting up these numbers. I'd have a little bit of pause, but when I see a rookie come out and just immediately dominate the way that McMillan has been, that's something that I'm going to be a little bit more reactive to. Like, this doesn't seem like a flu. I think maybe that's why I do have some pause on a Dunes A still is because he did have a relatively quiet rookie season that, you know, for me, it's Just like we see this every once in a while. Like we saw it with Jamar Chase, we saw it with Justin Jefferson after his first couple of slow weeks. But like we see these guys, Puka Nakua comes to mind as well. Like when these rookies come out week one, week two, establish themselves immediately as the alpha on the team, like making highlight play after highlight play. That's not something that I want to ignore because these are the guys. Like you don't typically see a rookie trending up for the first couple of weeks and then fall off. Typically when we see these rookies doing this early in their rookie season, it's going to continue.
- [46:31]
A
I'll say this next four weeks for Tedro McMillan are going to be potential shootout type games where AJ Terrell is.
- [46:37]
B
Injured this week too.
- [46:38]
A
Yep, easy defenses. You got the Atlanta Falcons with no AJ Terrell. New England Patriots Christian. Christian Rodriguez has been injured for a bit. Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys. Some juicy matchups coming up there. Like we could be sitting here going into Week 7 and talking about Tedro McMillan as a top 12 fantasy wide receiver at that moment.
- [46:59]
B
And had Tedro McMillan just caught one touchdown right now, he'd be inside the top 20 and people would be like super excited about it. But I think just based on the fact, I know it sounds so silly, like, you know, people who are super plugged in are going to realize that he's been doing well. But I think a lot of casual guys are going to say like, oh, I drafted this guy inside the top 20 and he's like the wide receiver 25 in scoring right now. And I think that that, like, I don't think that there's a huge buy window here, but like you might be able to sneak Tetero McMillan away right now before like you said, these like four super juicy matchups coming up because if he smashes these next four weeks, he's going to be untouchable. There's no way you're going to roll McMillan in trade if he does. What he has been doing so far.
- [47:38]
A
Are, I think these rookies are a lot of the guys you need to be going out and investing in because there's, there's that psychology of it where your league mates are upset, they feel betrayed, they were told all summer, go and get these rookies, they are going to win you your league. And man, fantasy managers are assuming that they will win their league by week three and they are freaking out and angry and they are willing to trade. And like that's the intangible thing is we have that psychology where you say, well, well, this guy's underperformed. I draft him so high, I just want him off my team. And so Even a Tedaro McMillan who's not having bad games, they'll say, well, I drafted him to be my wide receiver. One, he's not being that.
- [48:15]
B
So, yeah, time is a flat circle. People drafting rookies, getting excited, panicking after week two, trading them away for cheap, and then kicking themselves when they finish in 8th place. Happens every year.
- [48:25]
A
Every single year. All right, I'm gonna say that we don't need to panic over Chase Brown and maybe we panic over some parts of the Bengals offense, but I'm not going to panic yet over Chase Brown. A lot of it, Dave, is. You and I were texting about this 95 opportunity share for Chase Brown, 95.6%.
- [48:46]
B
You can round it up and say 96, make it sound even better.
- [48:50]
A
Sure, I'll do that. There you go. 96 opportunity.
- [48:54]
B
Are you serious?
- [48:55]
A
93 of the rushing attempts in this offense and I, I wanted to look back because now with Jake Browning taking over, I wanted to look back at what was going on last time that he was the full time starter in Cincy and last time that he was starting, the offense became very screen dominant. Granted, this was a rookie Jake Browning and a rookie Chase Brown.
- [49:17]
B
I have to pause here. I tweeted that out the other day. I said rookie Jake Browning in 2023 and got shredded by the repliers. I forgot that he was actually a part of the 2019 draft. Went undrafted and spent three years bouncing around a bunch of different practice squads. So I made that mistake yesterday on Twitter. I'm just trying to save you from the YouTube mob. Do not say that Jake Brown was a real good comment below 2023 because people get very, very upset about those semantics.
- [49:46]
A
Jake Browning, hive. Stand up and be heard.
- [49:49]
B
Yeah, didn't play a regular season snap until 2023, but he was a rookie in 2019. Okay.
- [49:56]
A
All right. First year quarterback on an active NFL roster. Jake Browning in 2023. It was a very screen dominant team. They did everything they could to make this simple. One read a lot of first read targets. Nearly 20% of the passes were screens or designed as first read targets in this offense and 50% of those were going to the running back. At the time, it was Joe Mixon, you had a rookie, Chase Brown, who was getting involved as well. And that was when Chase Brown was starting to like creep up and make some plays here and there and people are saying man, if he gets a chance, he could be something good. Chase Brown already sees 25% of the screens and the design first read targets in this offense and that could go up. I'm not saying it's going to be some sort of screen merchant where he's going to be getting a bunch of this, but the numbers that he currently has here are likely to go up. The offense will likely also have to be a bit more run heavy. I know that sounds crazy considering how bad the defense is, but. But this is going to be one of these things where the Bengals are going to have to slow down games and win efficiently, which is not really the Jake Browning. Mo. He's sort of Jake Jamis Winston Browning here. But the Bengals know that. And we got to see last time when Browning was the starter, the team increased its run play percentage to well above 40, which is very uncommon for Cincy, who's usually like around 25% to near the, the bottom of the league. So for them to increase their run rate, to increase the amount of first read targets and screen plays to the running back, I'm not worried about Chase Brown. He's still a very talented player. I think with the adjustment of the quarterback, it's going to hurt different players in this offense. And Dave, I know you want to talk about that as well.
- [51:34]
B
Yeah. And I think, yeah, this just kind of opens up like the next thing I was going to say, my overreaction. I've heard a lot of people just saying like the Bengals are cooked without Joe Burrow. And I don't think that's the case at all. You know, I looked over the seven games that he started in year five of his NFL career. 2023, sorry, year four, 71.5 completion percentage. He was pacing for like pacing over a 17 game pace. So I took seven games and you know, extrapolated that. Over 17 games on pace for 4, 537 yards. 4537 yards. I mean like he was still airing it out. A lot would have been on Pace for 27 touchdowns. And the interceptions are there. But you know what, interceptions don't, don't hurt Jamar Chase. If anything, it just gives more scoring opportunities for the other team, which allows them to throw the ball even more. I'm not that scared here when it comes to Jamar Chase. And, and there must have been some viral something going around about Jamar Chase's splits with Jake Browning because when I shared this about Jake Browning, like playing pretty well when he was the starter in 2023, I had a bunch of replies not just saying that he wasn't rookie, but the other replies were saying, well, Jamar Chase was a wide receiver too there. And I think that just lacks so much cont. Because week 12, it was the first start that Jake Browning had and Jamar Chase didn't do a ton. But Week 13 blows up 11 receptions on 12 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown. And then the next game, it was a blowout win over the Colts where he didn't even play a full snapchat, still just had 29 yards, nothing crazy. Then he gets hurt the next game with an injury. He's inactive for the week after that. He's limited with injury the week after that. And then he was rested in the second half the week after that. So, like we really only saw two full games with Jake Browning up to speed. One of those games, 149 yards and a touchdown. Another was kind of quiet game with 29 yards. But like, there still is a very high ceiling for Jamar Chase. I'd also say that his utilization and just talent level from the player he was in 2023 till the player that he is now, he is a much better player now than he was. Like, it's foolish to think that, like they're not going to get the ball to their best player. I have no pause on Jamar Chase. When I did my rest of season rankings, he is still my over wide receiver one. And a lot of people were pushing back on that saying, like, you need to push Jamar Chase down your rankings and I'm not. I still think that he is the best receiver in football. They're going to get the ball to him. I think the one thing that I get, I'm a little bit more concerned about Chase Brown than you are. And this is, you know, you and I don't disagree often. I think this is one of like the few disagreements that we might have here. He just hasn't looked very good this year and a lot of that is of course due to the very bad offensive line. But, you know, he, he's too small to, to break those tackles from defensive linemen in the backfield. And that's where he's getting hit more than anything else. Like we, we haven't seen him rip off a play for more than 11 yards yet. And now I worry that, you know, with less of a threat under center that they're just gonna be able to load the box up even more. So I'm not panicking on Chase Brown because the opportunity is there. I still think he is a talented player, but I think they're going to try to throw the ball a little bit more. I think that they are going to, you know, not be able to fix these offensive line problems they have. And I think Chase Brown, you know, I, I knocked him down a couple of spots in my rest of season rankings. I've still got him as a top 12 guy, but I do have a little bit of concern with what we've seen through the first two weeks.
- [54:55]
A
Yeah, I think what happens through uncomfortability with a team like the Bengals is that you have to be more creative. And, and I think that is sort of a thing that happens with Joe Burrow under center. You start to say, okay, well we can just let Joe cook. And now I think there's going to be a bit more of a we need to be creative with our play calling and get the ball into the hands of our playmakers because we don't want the ball to be in the hands of Jake Browning for two hours long. Not that he's some sort of horrible backup, but I, I, I, I'm not trying to give too much faith and credence to Zach Taylor, but do believe that we can still get some unique and fun usage for Chase Brown. Dave, the old adage that, you know, volume is king for running backs, I think for the most part rings true. Even when running backs have been inefficient. Volume has helps a ton and I think that's going to be a big driving force not only for Chase Brown but for the next guy that I want to talk about here. And Jordan Mason is a player who is going to be the starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings for at least the next four weeks while Aaron Jones is on IR potentially more. And I'm going to say this, there's going to be two sides to this coin. Jordan Mason will be a top 15, heck, let's say even top 12 running back over the next two weeks. Weeks. And then I fear that it will all come crashing down with this Vikings offense because Aaron Jones will be out for the four weeks with the hamstring. Could potentially be longer. Six or seven weeks. He's an older gentleman. Hamstring, soft tissue injuries, they, they linger. Jordan Mason has two really good matchups in the next two weeks, one against the Cincinnati Bengals and one against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But then after that you get the Cleveland Browns who are number two against fantasy running backs and they have been holding running backs to minimal yardage. You get A bye week, which is another week for Aaron Jones to heal up. Then we're looking at week five. It's the Philadelphia Eagles who that run defense is very good. We got to see what they look like when oh my gosh. Who's their Georgia D tackle? The. The spitting or spitting guy? It's not Jordan Davis. Jalen Carter. Thank you. I was mixing up my Georgia tackle spitting guy. So we got to see what the Eagles run to defense is like. The Los Angeles Chargers are number three against fantasy running backs. Detroit Lions recovered nicely in week two and they're number 11 against fantasy running backs. There is a very tough stretch of a schedule for the running back position for Jordan Mason who for the most part has not been a guy that like catches a lot of passes out of the backfield. A lot of this is going to come down to can he win up the middle? Can he win running the ball on a lot of the these low volume or sorry, not low volume but low value touches. On top of it all you got Carson Wentz coming in at quarterback that could be better than J.J. mcCarthy, don't get me wrong. But we're hoping that Carson Wentz at quarterback is going to be good and that there's going to be scoring opportunities and goal line opportunities for Jordan Mason because Carson Wentz is not a big check down guy to the running backs at least. No he is not bottom third among starters in the NFL right now. He's around 15% in targets to the running back who he does love to target his tight ends. So you know TJ Hawkinson might be something you want to hold on to over the next few weeks here.
- [58:08]
B
He looks so bad. Everyone looks bad about TJ Hawkins and he looks, he looks like a 39 year old tight end out there. Like I don't know what happened to him over the season.
- [58:19]
A
Volume cures a lot of ailments. I'm just hoping yeah for I listen the the vibes with the Vikings don't feel great. And that's the thing is I think there's going to be a little bit of the fool's gold and I'm sure there's going to be people here like no, Jordan Mason won me my league last year. He's going to be the starter, you'll see. I prefer him rest the season. And you know what? The next two weeks I think he's probably going to be amazing. Probably going to be a top 10, top 12 running back over the next two weeks. What I'm going to say here is be Prepared to move from Jordan Mason or be prepared for what's coming over the next three, four, five, six weeks here?
- [58:51]
B
Dave, let me ask you something, and I'm. First of all, let me. I'll talk about Jordan Mason first, because I watched his film, really, really like him. Like, there's just a lot.
- [59:00]
A
He's a good player.
- [59:02]
B
Running back. Yeah. I mean, patient, strong, smart, good footwork, finds the creases, does everything that he wants to do. Christian Darasaw also looking like he should be back this week, which will be huge for the run game. Going completely off script here, though, Alfredo. Not that we have a script, but just. Just off the top of my head, Carson Wentz comes out, throws for like 350 yards and four touchdowns this week. It's a big, decisive win over the Bengals, which isn't all that crazy. I mean, we've seen a lot of quarterbacks look really good in this Kevin O' Connell system. What does that mean for JJ McCarthy? Like, could we be looking at JJ McCarthy potentially getting, like, Trey Lance or Two Wood, like, where this veteran comes in and outplays him and they just say, like, hey, you know, this is a win now team, and we're not getting there with J.J. mcCarthy. This could be bad. If Wentz comes out and looks good these next couple of weeks.
- [59:50]
A
Yeah, I think anything's possible, especially because we've seen KOC be a guy who can work with anyone at quarterback, even Josh Dobbs. I just. I don't know that even. Just because of what we got to see in that short span of the fourth quarter of week one. Like, that glimmer of hope is there and how much Kevin O' Connell was like, really touting his guy. And J.J. mcCarthy had won the faith of his teammates. After week one, week two looked horrible. It was horrendous. The footwork was all over the place. The. Just everything. The confidence looked shot. Obviously, there's the injury that everyone is talking about. Is it real? Of course. I mean, it's not getting into that.
- [60:30]
B
We are not conspiracy theorists that he injured himself. Alfredo, I know you. You played sports before. Like, I. I'm sure anybody who has ever played sports has injured themselves, finished a game, and then woke up the next day in a ton of pain. Like, it's not that uncommon. Joe Mixon did it last year. Joe Mixon finished a game after a hip drop tackle and then missed the next three weeks. Like, these. These things happen. Take off your tin foil hats.
- [60:52]
A
The adrenaline is going like, I'm not by any means even A great athlete or a good athlete. I am a subpar Sunday morning warrior athlete. Okay? I walked to my car with a broken foot. Like, these things will happen. So do I think that it means that there's no J.J. mcCarthy the rest of the year if Carson Wentz plays well? No, I think that they do Turn back to JJ McCarthy and I think they kind of learn and let him say, okay, this is what worked in our offense with Carson under center. Let's try to, you know, get some of that working for you, jj. Learn from what you saw here, here. I don't know that they can go backward. I think some of that is just the sunk cost fallacy of the NFL, where they just. They want at least know what they have. Because if JJ doesn't have it after this year, it becomes the Anthony Richardson thing, where you can't say, like, oh, this guy didn't have a lot of reps in college. We need to get him reps. And then he gets the reps and you're like, actually, you know, what we need to do is not give you reps. And then they do a Joe Flacco and the Carson Wentz just keeps playing. It's possible. It's certainly possible. I don't.
- [61:53]
B
Before.
- [61:54]
A
Yeah, I know, I know. I don't think it's likely, but that's one of those things. Like, we're just. We're just guessing.
- [62:01]
B
I'm gonna throw one more in here. And I know we're already, like, over time, but this morning I. I was kind of interested. I wanted to watch another player's film. And Javonte Williams, I think he's back. I think he is very, very back. I don't think this is a dead zone running back situation where it's just, you know, so many people are just like, oh, Javante Williams, he's just keeping. Keeping the seat warm until somebody else can take over. And we had those concerns in the preseason where we said this could change on a weekly basis. We don't know who the guy's going to be. They're all pretty bad. I don't. I don't. I'm willing to just say that I was wrong. Javante Williams is not a bad running back. I think that that horrific knee injury that he had in 2022 lingered for a couple of years. But if you look all of his efficiency metrics, that's why I went back and watched the film, because all of his efficiency metrics are in line with what we saw his rookie season in year two before the injury. I mean, he's generating just as many yards after contact per attempt as he did as a rookie. And in year two, we saw that fall off a cliff over the last couple of years. The biggest mover in my rest of season rankings this week and like, I still feel like I could even move him higher. I sent out a trade last night, my tray beyond Henderson, for somebody else's, Javante Williams, and it was declined. I mean, like that, that's where I'm at right now. Like, I would move off of Travion Henderson, I'd move off of RJ Harvey. I think Javante Williams is going to beat Alice's RB1 for the rest of the season. And I think there might still be some people out there saying like, oh, he's a dead zone running back. It's gonna, you know, turn into a pumpkin at some point. I, I think he's good enough to retain this role for the rest of the year.
- [63:32]
A
I think he's playing well enough right now. And I'm not gonna say like that for sure he turns into a pumpkin. I think based on what we're seeing right now, based on the schedule that he has right now as well, he's gonna have a lot of people at 8 and 1 or 7 and 2 in their fantasy leagues after the first nine weeks. And then after the buy, things do get a little bit hairy. He's got the Eagles again with Jaylen Carter in there, hopefully. Kansas City Chiefs defense, the Detroit Lions defense, Minnesota Vikings defense, LA Chargers defense. It could be one of those where he's going to be hitting a gauntlet when you need him most. It's not me saying you need to trade him now. I think if you drafted him, you drafted him at such a low cost. Cost. Enjoy the ride while you're on it. I would just say, like, if you have him, enjoy this as you get him to his bye week. You're seven and two or eight and one or six and three or whatever, have contingencies in place like make sure you are investing in some of these young guys that could take off later in the season. Because I think that we have to remember these games. Yes. After two weeks we want to say X player is my running back, whatever for rest of season. But these, these games, this, this game of fantasy football is played pockets where players are going to be good for two, three, four weeks at a time and then it can very easily go away. So with the guy that's had the injuries he's had, it does worry me slightly, but I I don't think you can buy them in, in fantasy. I don't think you need to be selling him in fantasy. And if you have him, you're holding.
- [64:58]
B
Enjoy it because he's winning weeks for you. One of the best values in drafts right now. Yeah. And this also like you might know the answer to this, but how old do you think Javante Williams is in.
- [65:09]
A
Dog years or football years? He's like 48 years old, but I believe he's like 25 or 26.
- [65:15]
B
Yeah, like turned 25 in April. Still way younger. Like, I don't know why. In my head I think it's just the injuries and like, I think because he came on in a 20 year old rookie. Yeah. And it was like, still the COVID years were like time since then has just been like really tough to track. But like, like, I don't know why, like in my head I thought Javante Williams was like 27, 28. I kind of like just compartmentalized him with all like the other Dusty veterans. And now I'm like rethinking all of the stances I had where it's like, wait, this guy got hurt at 22 years old and then had a couple of years to recover and is still younger than RJ Harvey. He is still a very young running back. So I think that I just like, because of the injuries, because of the poor efficiency over the last couple years, I just kind of written Javante Williams off and, and I wish I had it and I wish I drafted a lot more Javante Williams now and I didn't draft a lot of Javonte Williams and now nobody's trading me Javante Williams. And I'm sad because I don't have him on my teams and I don't know how I can get him on my teams.
- [66:15]
A
Yeah, there's a few.
- [66:16]
B
Sneak that into the end here.
- [66:17]
A
No, no, you're good. Like, and I'm, I'm, I'm in such a weird place with Javante because I really liked the talent, but I'm still, I am still a little skeptical. You know, we didn't have the best week one, but we had a very efficient two touchdown performance. And then week two, he just absolutely pops off. But this is the same New York Giants defense that we saw that like Jakori, Koski, Merritt in week one was able to run all over as well.
- [66:41]
B
Right.
- [66:41]
A
So like I'm, I'm.
- [66:43]
B
That's why even like the, the jury's still out, the metrics from week one weren't great. For Javante. But even when you watch that film, I mean, that is such a good Philadelphia defense. Like, they were just smothering him. And he was, as Matt Waldman likes to say, say, making lemonade out of lemons. Like there was really nothing for him to do. I think, like, you throw any running back in that situation and they're going to struggle. And he was still able to have a fantasy relevant day. He was able to generate yards after contact. He was able to accelerate through defenders. Like all the things that we liked about Javante when he was coming in as a rookie were on display in week one, even if the total yardage wasn't there. I'm just, maybe this is me like overcorrecting for my big preseason fade on Javonte Williams, but I'm eating the cheese now. Man, he looks good.
- [67:26]
A
I'm. I'm still a little lactose intolerant. Like, I'm not saying he's going to be bad. I'm just, I'm pretty agnostic to Javante right now. That's why I just say hold. Keep them write it out. Dave, some of the players we talked about today. I made a trade in my home league and I was teasing this at the beginning of the show, not that anyone was sitting around, you know, an hour to hear what trade I made, but I, this started out as me wanting someone in my league, put Brian Thomas Jr. On the trade block. And I said, okay, let's see what we can do. And it started out initially as like a, hey man, I'll give you Travis Hunter and Isaiah Pacheco for Brian Thomas Jr. He's like, well, you know, I'd prefer Jordan Mason over Pacheco. I was, okay, well if I'm giving you Jordan Mason, that's a bit more like, we're gonna have to do more here. And he's like, well, what do you think? And I was like, let me, me, let me send you a blockbuster. Let's see what, what you think. So I'm. We ended up settling on this. I sent him Jordan Mason, Isaiah Pacheco, Travis Hunter and a. Mecca Igbuka in exchange for Chase Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. Now you and I both like the do a lot of players for a consolidate down because there's always players you can add off the waiver wire. So the players I ended up adding off the waiver wire after this trade were Blake Corner him and Taj Brooks. So I've handcuffed my Chase Brown. So Dave, how do you look at this? I know you have your concerns about both Chase Brown and Brian Thomas. How do you look at this for someone if you're saying, okay, I'm cashing in on players that are really at the height of their value and I'm doing this thing where I'm consolidating down to, at least in my opinion, what I think are the two best players in this deal.
- [69:04]
B
Yeah. And they are the best players in the deal. And I think my initial reaction when you sent me the trade was that I wasn't. I wasn't crazy about it. Then I asked, you know, you open up two bench spots, who were you able to get? If this is a league where you had 10 bench spots and you're like, okay, now I've got these two open bench spots and I'm going to add Olamide's Akias and I don't know, like, whatever. Yeah, I probably wouldn't be thrilled about it, but given that this is a shallow enough league where those bench spots are very, very valuable, and when you can add a Blake Corum, who 30% of the touches last week had a touchdown as well, elite contingent, upside and Taj Brooks handcuffing Chase Brown, I think that makes it worth it for me. When I just saw the trade, I wasn't crazy about it. But knowing that you're able to get those guys off of waivers, I mean, there's something to be said for that. Like, in short leagues that don't have really deep benches, I love doing the two for ones, three for ones, four for twos, because people don't really factor that in to the trade. Is that how valuable those bench spots are in those short leagues?
- [70:00]
A
And, and what's interesting enough is, like, when this guy brought on these players that he got from me, he dropped. Not that like I was running to the waiver wire to grab these guys, but he ended up dropping Brenton Strange and Rashad Bateman, who I think someone else in the league is going to go out and be like, cool, let me add those on onto my bench. So it's like, it's. There's. It almost seems, I think for a lot of people, too obvious of like, oh, you sent a lot of mid for a little bit of like, good, right. I just think there is something to cashing in early and making these bets on your team. Like, who. Who can you get going to really turn things around?
- [70:32]
B
This team, I really hope they can. They can get Jacksonville's passing at the back on track. I, I have faith in Liam Cohen because of what he did in Tampa Bay. But like, like I said last week, it was just square peg in a round hole. Like, I don't want to see Brian Thomas Jr. In that role ever again. It's not what he does. Like, he is not an Austin Collie who's just going to sacrifice his body across the field.
- [70:54]
A
What a name. Drop Austin Collie out of nowhere off the top rope from Dave Kluge.
- [71:00]
B
But, you know, like, that's just not. Brian Thomas is Brian Thomas Jr's game. Like, he is a, you know, he's a glider, he's a speedster. He can win outside. Like, he is not a guy that you want to see running in breaking routes five yards across the field. It's just not what he does. Like, he doesn't play with that sort of reckless abandon that you need to in that role. Travis Hunter, however, does. So I want to see Travis Hunter in that role. I want to see Brian Thomas Jr. Playing out wide. I think last week was just terrible, terrible, terrible game planning.
- [71:29]
A
Bring back Mac Jones. Make it happen.
- [71:32]
B
Bring back Austin Collie. Nope.
- [71:35]
A
Nope. All right, guys, I think that's gonna be a wrap for us. Dave and I are going to be back again tomorrow looking at the start sits and sleepers for week three to help you win your fantasy football matchups and set your lineups. As always, I want to thank everybody for watching or listening all the way through. For myself, for Dave. See you next time. Adios. Foreign this episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today.
- [72:12]
B
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- [72:13]
A
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B
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A
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