Footballguys Fantasy Football Show — Week 4 Matchup Previews with Devin Knotts
Date: September 26, 2025
Hosts: Dave Kluge & Alfredo Brown
Guest: Devin Knotts (DFS Lead, Footballguys)
Overview
This episode dives deep into Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season, focusing on six of the most intriguing fantasy football matchups. Hosts Dave Kluge and Devin Knotts break down key start/sit decisions, player trends, and dynasty outlooks while mixing in actionable advice, theory talk, honest hot takes, and plenty of laughs. The episode especially highlights changing player values, rookie trajectories, and the impact of unique situational football (e.g., international games).
Key Matchups and Discussion Points
Vikings vs. Steelers (Ireland Game)
Jordan Addison — Start or Sit?
- Devin: Generally cautious with international games. "If I'm behind and I need a big game, he's probably the type of player that would win out... But I'm not really expecting it.” (01:57)
- Dave: Sees him as "a guy who can rip off big chunk plays" but doubts high volume. Offers an Addison prop: “under 3.5 receptions, over 49.5 yards is +900” (03:14).
T.J. Hockenson — New Life with Carson Wentz?
- Devin: “He's probably like a low end tight end one for me just because... this is sustainable. Six targets. If he can catch, you know, four or five...he’s probably gonna get there most weeks”—on the Wentz bump and relief from McCarthy (04:07).
- Dave: Emphasizes the PPR value but questions chunk-play upside. Fact-checks: Wentz and Goddard played together and Goddard’s best year was with him (05:22).
Calvin Austin — Chasing Usage or Chasing Production?
- Devin: Not an “air yards guy,” citing numerous air yard “darlings” that never pan out. Only values Austin as an extreme upside flex in the deepest leagues (06:21).
The International Effect
- Devin: Doesn’t downgrade too much for fun's sake, but “history that like most of the time [international games] are lower scoring.” (09:00)
- Dave: “Set an alarm, make sure your lineups are set”—no excuses for missing player inactives (10:30).
Browns at Lions
Quinshon Judkins — True RB1?
- Devin: Despite “Browns fan/hater” status, ranks him “a low running back one the rest of the way.” Lauds his burst and readiness: “The game speed seems fine for him...doesn't seem that way for Genty and Hampton.” (11:10)
- Dave: Has him at RB17 but puts him in a mix with top young RBs: “I would prefer Quinjon Judkins ahead of... Ken Walker, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne.” (12:53)
Harold Fannin — Stock Down or Buy Window?
- Devin: Sees a potential breakout if David Njoku is traded: “If that's the case, Fannin is a buy for me.” Otherwise, views him as “just below like a Hawkinson in that [TE2] range for me, but with upside.” (14:22)
Jameson Williams — Weekly Rollercoaster or Benchwarm?
- Devin: “He is who he is... You just have to keep playing him...the volatility—you’re not going to be able to pick which games he goes off.” (17:00)
- Dave: Cites studies discounting “consistency” over “ceiling games”—start Williams, live with the risk (19:04).
Lions OL: Are the Worries Real?
- Devin: No concern. “Penei Sewell is still one of the best...this took them a week to get to.” Expects elite offensive line play to continue (20:07).
Panthers at Patriots
Tetairoa McMillan — Prime Buy Low?
- Dave: Sees him as a buy low; runs a “would you rather” with Brian Thomas Jr, AJ Brown, and Rome Odunze, with consensus McMillan above Thomas if you need upside (22:11).
- Devin: If “you’re 3-0, I’m taking Brian Thomas. If you’re 0-3… [take] Tetairoa McMillan.” (22:27)
New England Backfield: Is This Travion Henderson’s Week?
- Devin: Not yet, due to atrocious “6.6 PFF grade… I’ve never seen a stat as low” for pass blocking (25:01). Highlights coaching philosophy preferring trusted veterans (26:02).
Patriots WRs — Any Value Left?
- Devin: “If I had to take one... I don't know that I'm cutting Stefan Diggs after three weeks.” Most WRs should be cut except for deepest leagues. Hunter Henry “might be the WR1 on this team.” (27:32)
- Dave: “I’m starting to feel like all these guys are just dead weight.” (27:16)
Eagles at Buccaneers
What's Up with the Eagles?
- Devin: “I'm so confused by this team… If the passing game doesn't get right here on the road against Tampa Bay, I have serious concerns long term for both Smith and Brown.” (29:55)
- Dave: Wonders if Will Shipley’s return might reduce Barkley’s workload down the line (32:33).
Chris Godwin — Start Immediately Post-Injury?
- Devin: “No, I would start him.” Has no reservations based on previous injury history (33:26).
- Dave: “A little bit trepidatious, got him at WR50…pumping the brakes a little.” (34:19)
Bucs WRs ROS — How Does It Shake Out?
- Devin: “Still an Evans and Godwin team, with Igbuka still contributing but not high upside... cannibalization between all of them.” Put more trust in veterans, but Igbuka is pro-ready. (36:35)
Bears at Raiders
Luther Burden — Is He Really Startable?
- Devin: “Pump the brakes...He had three targets, caught all three, largely propped up because of a 65-yard touchdown. Rookie who didn’t go to Ohio State or LSU.” (38:16)
- Dave: “He ran nine routes last week” — way too few to consider him viable (38:59).
D.J. Moore — Panic Time or Patiently Waiting?
- Devin: “I’m holding for a week, starting him...if he has a big game, which I hope, try to move him...he’s the number two in this offense.” Points to weather and volume concerns later in the year (40:14).
Ashton Jeanty — Buy Low, Hold, or Panic?
- Devin: Not a fan: “If you can get somebody who's paying you 80 cents on the dollar for Genty, take that all day. I think he needs an elite OL like Jonathan Taylor had.” (43:00)
- Dave: Moved Jeanty down in rankings, now views him as comparable to “other disappointing guys” like Chase Brown, Alvin Kamara (45:15). “Not crazy" to consider trading him for Judkins.
Brock Bowers — Bench Or No?
- Devin: “I would blame fantasy managers for benching Brock Bowers… yes, it’s disappointing, but you play him.” (47:22)
Bengals at Broncos
Higgins & Chase Brown — Both Benchable?
- Devin: Yes, “I’m benching them both...Higgins at one point was one of my favorite receivers…but right now...how many injuries has this guy had?” (49:18)
- Dave: Cites Bengals’ OL as “maybe the worst… I’ve ever watched in my life.” Thinks Taj Brooks might get a look. (51:11)
Jamar Chase — Still Must-Start?
- Dave: Has him “outside my top 10 in WR rankings,” but not outright benchable (53:32).
- Devin: “I think I have him at 7 or 8. But agree… there’s concern just because of everything else that’s going on.” (54:08)
Denver RB: RJ Harvey’s Window Closed?
- Devin: “It’s sort of now or never... I don’t have any interest at the moment for Harvey.” Dobbins is the clear backfield leader. (55:50)
- Dave: “Congratulations if you have J.K. Dobbins... if somebody’s trying to sell, I’ll gladly buy.” (57:23)
Notable Quotes & Fun Moments
- “I'm not an air yards guy... There have been so many just like air yard darlings over the years that pop on paper but will only catch two or three passes per game.” — Devin on Calvin Austin (06:21)
- “If that’s the case, Fannin is a buy for me… he was as dynamic as Tyler Warren last year. He went to Bowling Green.” — Devin (14:22)
- “Consistency feels good, but at the end of the day it doesn’t matter.” — Dave quoting Jordan McNamara on volatile WRs like Jameson Williams (19:04)
- “I've never seen a stat as low as a 6.6 from any player...” — Devin on TreVeyon Henderson's pass blocking (25:01)
- “He was largely propped up because of a 65-yard touchdown. He’s a rookie who didn’t go to Ohio State or LSU.” — Devin on Luther Burden (38:16)
- “I would blame fantasy managers for benching Brock Bowers. That's not even on the table for me.” — Devin (47:22)
- “I call it the Puka Nacua effect... Everyone wants to find that next guy and they don't come around very often.” — Devin on rookie fever (60:09)
- “Kevin Stefanski is not a good coach. I think he should be fired.” — Devin's “hill to die on” (61:15)
Timestamps for Major Segments
- Vikings-Steelers Discussion: 01:11 – 10:30
- Browns-Lions: 11:10 – 21:28
- Panthers-Patriots: 21:28 – 29:55
- Eagles-Bucs: 29:55 – 38:10
- Bears-Raiders: 38:10 – 46:23
- Bengals-Broncos: 46:23 – 61:06
- Hottest Take ("Hill to Die On"): 61:06 – 64:05
Summary of Week 4 Insights
- Be cautiously optimistic with rookies and situational upside plays (e.g., Judkins, McMillan, Burden), but price and role matter more than hype or draft capital.
- In international games, don't overreact but recognize the historical trend of low scoring—unless you just want to “have fun.”
- With banged-up or committee backfields (e.g., NE, Vegas, Bengals), lean on veteran roles and proven production. Don’t force rookies into lineups unless opportunity strikes.
- The WR room in New England is a fantasy wasteland except for Hunter Henry in TE-premium leagues.
- Play your studs (Brock Bowers, Jamar Chase), but be flexible in tough matchups or declining situations.
Follow Devin Knotts on X (@devinknottsfbg) and find all his analysis at Footballguys.com.
Next up: Week 5 preview with another Footballguys staffer—released Friday mornings!