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Week 5 Matchup Previews with Josh Fahlsing || Fantasy Football 2025
01:13:52
In Episode 22 of The Launch Pad, Dave Kluge sits down with Josh Fahsling to discuss some of the most intriguing Week 5 matchups. Become a Footballguys ELITE Subscriber: Follow Dave Kluge on Twitter: Footballguys Instagram: Footballguys...
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- [00:00]
A
Morning, Zoe. Got donuts.
- [00:02]
B
Jeff Bridges, why are you still living above our garage?
- [00:05]
A
Well, I dig the mattress and I want to be in a T mobile commercial like you teach me. So Dana.
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B
Oh no, I'm not really prepared. I couldn't possibly at T Mobile get the new iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system.
- [00:24]
A
Wow, impressive. Let me try. T mobile is the best place to get iPhone 17 Pro because they've got the best network.
- [00:31]
B
Nice. Je free. You heard them.
- [00:33]
A
T mobile is the best place to get the new iPhone 17 Pro on us with eligible traded in any condition. So what are we having for lunch?
- [00:42]
B
Dude, my work here is done.
- [00:44]
A
The 24 month bill credit on experience beyond for well qualified customers + tax and 35 device connection charge credit send and balance due. If you pay off earlier Cancel Finance Agreement. IPhone 17 Pro 256 gigs 1099.99 A new line minimum 100 plus a month plan with auto pay plus taxes and fees required. Best mobile network in the US based on analysis by Oklahoma Speed Test Intelligence Data 182025 Visit T mobile.com thank you for tuning in to another episode of the Launch Pad. I'm your host Dave Kluge and today I am joined by Josh Falsing. Josh joined our team at Football Guys last season and has been a great addition to our staff. He cut his teeth in the newspaper business a while back, but now you can find all of his written work over here at Football Guys. Josh brings a balance of understanding, numbers, film scheme, tendencies and narrative, making him one of the sharper analysts out there. Today we will discuss six intriguing matchups on the week, including his Detroit Lions. As always, this show would not be possible without you taking the time to listen. Now let's dive in. Josh, Paul Singh, welcome to the show. How are you doing today?
- [01:46]
B
I'm doing great man. Thanks for having me.
- [01:48]
A
Of course, man. This is always such a fun time of the week. Like we're turning that page from like looking back at last week to looking forward at next week. And of course we're recording the show on Thursday. Everybody's going to be listening to this one on Friday morning. But what I do on the show every single week, pick a football guy staffer that I want to talk with a little bit and hand pick six games that are especially intriguing to me that I think have some fun talking points. And the first one is going to be the Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans. And Josh, kind of a open Ended question here. Are we panicking about Derrick Henry yet? I mean, it seems like for so long, we just said, this guy is just an outlier. We can't bet against him. And then, like the year everybody finally buys in, drafts him early. Now we're seeing some kind of scary dips in regression. So what's your take on Derrick Henry?
- [02:33]
B
I. I'm. The only way I'm going to panic on Derrick Henry is if I have to tackle him. I think still at this point, for me, it's still like trying to tackle a Chevette. He's a freak, right? I mean, he's just. He's just. He. He surpasses every expectation you have for when a running back's gonna fall off. He just. He doesn't. None of it seems to hit. I think when I. My first instinct was, yeah, okay, maybe it's time to panic a little bit. And then I looked a little bit deeper. 5.8 yards per carry this. This year so far. For. For whatever you think that stat is worth, I think he's at 284 yards and three touchdowns. The fumbles are what kind of stick out to people, I think. But I. Those are fluky. He just. He's not a fumbler. So I. He is the one veteran running back that even in a dynasty league, I'm okay with with acquiring at least. You know, going into this season, I was okay with acquiring because typically he's off my radar because of his age, but this guy just defies those expectations. And I am not. I'm not panicking on him yet.
- [03:34]
A
Yeah. And to add some context to the yards per attempt, something I like to look at, especially in regards to Derrick Henry, is yards before contact per attempt, which is very. So an offensive line metric. But the big issue when he was in Tennessee is they didn't have an offensive line and he still produced. What we saw last year was a huge jump from 2.1 yards before contact per attempt to 3.1 yards before contact per attempt. And that's what really helped him kind of unlock this new ceiling. Well, guess what? He is averaging 3.1 yards before contact per attempt, exactly what he averaged last year. Yards after contact per attempt, exactly the same as last year as well. So we have seen some weird game scripts where they just haven't been giving him the ball as much. But, like, average, every efficiency metric we care about for Derrick Henry is exactly the same last year, just getting the volume reeled back. And I think a lot of that is just like, wanted to keep him fresh for late in the year where we know it's not uncommon for Derrick Henry to start slow and then really turn it on once the, the weather gets cold. So I'm with you. I don't think there's any reason to panic here, and I do think that Derrick Henry makes for a pretty nice buy low candidate right now. Another player I want to talk about, though, on the Baltimore Ravens, Josh, is Mark Andrews. Who is the real Mark Andrews? The guy who caught two catches in the first two weeks or the guy with 12 catches over the two weeks? Or the likely answer is it's the real Mark Andrews somewhere in between there.
- [04:51]
B
Yes. Yeah. Yes. I love the way the question was phrased, who was the real Mark Andrews? And I'm like, this guy, all of it, all of this is the real Mark Andrews, right? I think this has kind of been what he's been for the last couple years. He had a nice stretch of, of a few years there where week to week he was really consistent, but for the last couple of years now, he's been a much more boom, bust type of, of tight end. So you're going to have those weeks, you're going to have those stretches where it seems like he disappears and you're going to have those stretches where he has, you know, the catches and the targets he's had in the last couple of weeks. And so I think that's just where he is right now. And at that position, that's still, he still holds a lot of value to teams. You just have to be able to take the downs with the ups, right? Yeah.
- [05:36]
A
And I think that's it. Like last year, people were panicking about Mark Andrews. He was still a top five tight end. And like, you remember, like, bookended by a terrible week one and then a really bad drop in the postseason and there were ups and downs. But, like, if you're looking for a consistent tight end, I got some really bad news for you. Those just don't really exist. Like, you got Brock Bowers, who's dealing with an injury right now and hasn't even been consistent. You got Trey McBride who, like, the consistency is there, but the lack of touchdowns at this point is just something that we can't really ignore. Like, the only consistent guy that we've seen this year has been Jake Ferguson. And like, I don't know about you, but I've played this game long enough to know that when you see like four good weeks from a tight end, that typically doesn't stick for the rest of the season. So yeah, like, there's a lack of consistency with Mark Andrews, but that's just the nature of the tight end position as a whole. So it wouldn't surprise me if Mark Andrews finishes top five again this year. I think, like, at worst, we're still looking at a top 10 guy with a top five ceiling.
- [06:32]
B
Yeah. And he's, I mean, he's still, he's second on the team and targets catches and yards still. And, and for. And we're, and we still. We're asking the question what's happened to Mark Andrews, but the fact is he's second on the team and targets catches and yards still. Maybe it's a team thing a little bit too. They're off. They. They've been a little bit disjointed so far this season and, and now with Lamar Jackson going out, it's. It's not going to help, you know, over the next several weeks, but second half of the season in particular and if likely comes back, I think in some ways likely helps Andrews a little bit. I think sometimes he helps balance that out a little bit more and take some of the pressure off Andrew. So I, I'm not really worried about him because I wasn't super high on him to begin with, but I think that that position, like you said, even with the inconsistency, he's still a top, a top option if, if you didn't get one of the, one of the, you know, top two or three guys.
- [07:23]
A
And I think talking about like Andrews and likely too, like, yeah, they both have a TE next to their name and they're next to each other on a depth chart, but they play very different positions. Where Mark Andrews lines up in line, he is your more tradition tight end. Isaiah likely is kind of just like a big slot receiver that moves all over and can do some fun things. But yeah, I think that you are spot on that I. Isaiah likely actually opens things up for Mark Andrews. The other thing I want to talk about in this game, though, I think we've talked enough about the Ravens. You do mention like the, the Lamar Jackson and just like the sputtering offense, it's kind of crazy to think like that if they drop these next two games with Cooper Rush, we're looking at a 1 in 5 Ravens team and I don't think anybody expected that. But the NFL, the season comes at you quick. But I want to talk about the Houston Texans and, and I think we just have to talk about Woody Marks. We've seen this role grow every single week and I'm Just ask. Gonna ask you a very simple yes or no question that you could expand on. Woody Marks. Is he legit?
- [08:16]
B
I think so. I think he is. And, and part of the reason I think he is is because I liked one of the, one of the comps, one of Waldman's comps really stuck with me from in the spring and I don't, I don't want to give any RSP stuff away, but I, I think I can say one comp probably.
- [08:29]
A
Oh, absolutely. Yeah, he loves it. Yeah, that's promot good.
- [08:34]
B
Well, he comptoned the Cadillac Williams back in the spring and I thought that was an excellent comp and I really liked it because Caddy was one of my favorite, you know, running backs back in the day. Houston had an eye on him. I mean they traded up to get him. So he's, he's a fourth round running back, but he's maybe not your typical fourth round running back because they invested something to go get him. He was a little bit below average. I at least had him on his speed score, but he had a good 40 time. He had an elite burst score coming out. His, his size was sort of marginal, I thought, or right on the BO line. He was a productive receiver in college. He had, you know, all these sort of benchmarks that I look for for a, a running back that I think can make that transition from college to pro. I mean he, he checked as many boxes as he didn't and there were some that he didn't. He was a little bit under yards per carry. He was. His, his early production as a, as a early, a young college player was a little bit lower than you like to see, but he looked good in his first attempt and, and more importantly than anything, he's going to get opportunity. Right. And so if he, if there's any part of him that can be legit, he's about to get the chance to show it and to seize that job potentially because he's a lot of old timers in front of him. Yeah.
- [09:45]
A
And you know, I've mentioned it a couple of times this week when talking about Woody Marks and so often, you know, like when we're looking at prospects, we look so much and put so much weight into their combine testing. And I think a lot of people were disappointed with Woody Marks, what he did at the combine. But it's so easy to make the comparison to Bucky Will or Bucky Irving last year who also like, didn't do well at the combine. But then you just watch him and you're like, like wait, this guy's just like bouncy and fast and he's got burst and he's strong and he's quick and like he's passing the eye test with flying colors. And I feel like you see that with Woody Marks. So I think a lot of people have this idea that he's not athletic because on a random day in April he didn't hit the numbers that we wanted him to. But like sometimes you just need to throw that out the window and just watch him play. And like you don't need to be a scout to look at Woody Marks and say like, this guy's got juice and he is a fun player who can break tackles and do a lot of good things on a football field.
- [10:32]
B
Yeah, I agree and I think, I think that he's. The thing that I always go back to is that they did make that move to go get him. And I don't, I don't know how frequent it is that you see teams, Jalen Wright trade ups into like the fourth round or in that area of the draft, you see teams trading up to get a guy. Yeah, Jalen Wright, he's the most. A more recent one, but I can't think of a ton of those where those guys, it was sort of like they've identified a player he's dropping and we're going to go get them now. And it matches up so well with their need too with, with these two older backs in front of him that if he stays healthy, I think he's got an opportunity there and you know.
- [11:08]
A
Not even factoring in the trade up. It's so weird how he just kind of got lost in the shuffle during draft season. Like if you see he went a few picks after Cam Scatter Boo and Bay Shoten, guys that everybody was really, really excited about. Like Cam, like Woody Marks was right there. Like he was an early fourth round pick. There's clearly plans for him. But for whatever reason, he just kind of got lost in the fold this offseason.
- [11:27]
B
It was so deep. It was such a deep rookie running back class. I think that was part of it. I mean I was, we were looking at, I think it was one of the round tables this week and we were looking at some of the, the running back scorers, at least that I, I was from my little internal thing that I do in rookie season and Travion Henderson, who I had ranked like the fifth running back in this class, he was, I think score wise he tied for second. I ranked him fifth after landing spots and all that. But he would have been the number one running back last year, the number two running back the previous two years before that I think in my scoring. So I think the draft was so deep that guys like Woody Marks kind of got pushed down and you know, Houston gets the benefit from that.
- [12:08]
A
And I agree with you. I think he's legit. The one last thing I'll say about him is I think a lot of people wrote off the pass catching because the Mississippi State offense that he was a part of was very much so a pass heavy offense that would really focus on the running backs. But I love seeing that he transferred to USC and still maintained that pass catching. Showing that it wasn't just a product of the offense, it's him. He is a good route runner. He gets open and he draws targets which we love to see.
- [12:31]
B
He had 83 receptions I think were his most in. In a college season. And I, I don't care how 83 is a lot of catches for running back. You have to have some ability and some ability to run routes and get open to catch that many. You're not catching 83 dump offs, you know, through, through in that college season. So he obviously has some pass catching chops. Yeah.
- [12:51]
A
Last thing I want to talk about in this game and we're sticking with Houston on this one. Nico Collins obviously a stud. We love Nico Collins. But man like Jaden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, Kirk Christian, Kirk like all these other guys that we, we're kind of allured by. But I'm wondering are any of these guys even startable at this point?
- [13:09]
B
I want Jaden, I want Higgins to be a thing so bad this early in the season. I, and I, I really expected more coming out. He reminds me a little bit of like the wide receiver version of Trey Benson last year where every week I kept thinking it was going to be a week where I'd see more from Benson and every week I keep expecting a little more from Higgins and just not seeing it. I think until they get their, their passing offense figured out a little bit more, there might not be. I mean it might be Schultz. It might be that your tight end is really your best option at besides Nico. Or it. Maybe it's Marks out of the backfield. Maybe he's the one who's going to get. I mean it could be him but receiver wise I just don't see anybody stepping up right now and I don't. Stroud just seems out of, out of whack a little bit. The whole offense is a little bit out of whack. And he, he in particular seems like he just hasn't been able to quite recapture the. What we saw from his rookie season. And I mean maybe some of that was Tank Dell and the connection they had in his part of the offense, but I think it's. Maybe teams have figured him out a little bit.
- [14:10]
A
Yeah, it's disappointing to see like it was effortless football his rookie season.
- [14:14]
B
Like it really was.
- [14:15]
A
There was a point in time in like January where I remember CJ or it was in January or February, like shortly after the season. C.J. stroud was the QB one keep, trade cut. Like people were ranking him ahead of Josh Allen, ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, like that's how good his rookie season was. And it seems like such so long ago at this point and the reality is like it wasn't that long ago but like the NFL changes quick and yeah, I mean, like I need to see something from CJ Stroud before I can be excited about a secondary option in this offense.
- [14:45]
B
And it's wild too because it's, I mean he's averaging, he's completing what, 67.5 of his passes. It looks like here, if I'm looking at the, if, if these are, these numbers are right and I think that I'm on NFL.com but he's throwing three interceptions to four touchdowns. And that's gonna, I mean that's gonna get you, especially in fantasy, that's going to get you every time you can. Completion percentage isn't helping you that much. But when you're throwing picks like that and you're not throwing touchdowns, four and four games, when you've got Nico Collins, when you've got Christian Kirk, when you've got these rookies who were supposed to be so good. Well, supposed to be okay at least coming out of Iowa State, maybe weren't just expected to set the world on fire, but I expected more from both of them. There's something wrong with the offense, I.
- [15:25]
A
Think, and I'm not fully panicking on Jaden Higgins yet. It's early and he's. Oh, nobody'd receiver. They take time to acclimate. But like definitely not putting him in a lineup anytime soon. Like, you know, gently buying him in dynasty leagues where I can. I just got Jaden Higgins in the deal a few days ago. Still like the prospect, but yeah, I'd like to see him on the field a little bit more. And you talk about the interception, Sue. It's not just the volume of interceptions, it's how bad Some of them have been like, I was watching all of his interceptions the other day, and there was one where like Christian Kirk was wide open and CJ Stroud was locked in on him from the time he left the line of scrimmage till he got 30 yards downfield. And then he short armed the throw by like 10 yards and just put it right out of defender. And it's just like, how are you making these mistakes in year three? It's very, very frustrating to watch.
- [16:05]
B
But that sounds like a guy who's pressing a little bit and probably is feeling that, that that rookie year is getting further and further away.
- [16:13]
A
Absolutely. Another game I want to talk about and this is a, you know, we're scraping the barrel here, but I still think that there's some stuff to talk about in this Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers game, especially because there are just some, some changes happening right now. I want to start first with Jalen Waddle and I, I want to ask you, you know, this is a guy that we saw, we were really excited about after his rookie season, like just a target hog. And then since then he's been playing with Tyree Kill and he's kind of taken on that secondary role in the offense. So now with Tyreek Hill out of the picture, how high is Jalen Waddle? Ceiling.
- [16:46]
B
My daughter just turned seven. She drafted her first fantasy team this year. My, my deal with my kids is when you can read, you can draft a fantasy team. So as long as you're able to read, you can draft. So that's, that was the, the carrot and she drafted Jalen Waddle. She's in love with Jalen Waddle because he waddles like a penguin when he scores touchdowns. So Ali, we're talking about your guy. I love.
- [17:09]
A
Jeff Bell's daughter just did her first team and Jalen Waddle is her favorite player too. So shout out to Jalen.
- [17:14]
B
Connecting.
- [17:15]
A
This is great.
- [17:16]
B
All of the yes. The, the young ladies love Jaylen Waddle and the Penguin dance with the touchdown. Right? I, I, I love it. I, I think we're, you know, the question is how good can he be without Tyreek? And I, I guess my this is the bad answer maybe, but we're about to find out. Finally, we're about to find out because he's kind of, it always has felt like he's been capped a little bit by his situation and by being second fiddle, so to speak, to, to Tyreek Kill and that he was capable of a little more. I, I, he's only 26. I mean in dynasty leagues. I still love the age. I still love the talent. Tua has actually been okay. He's completing 70% of his passes, but kind of like Stroud is, he's just, he's throwing too many interceptions. He's thrown four picks here in the first four weeks and he's only attempted 20 passes a game. I think he's had 80 pass attempts in four weeks and they're averaging about 190 passing yards. So it limits upside for all of these receivers. But I think Waddle can step into that role. I think Malik Washington can be a nice running mate for him and take some of the heat off. We, we did a series and we talked a little bit in the early in the spring. I think we did some articles and we talked about Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and the Batman and Robin combination there and Tyrique and, and Waddle are one that I didn't really think about when I was putting that together. But they've always been sort of that way. Waddle just always seemed like he was suppressed a little bit and I think that, think we're going to get full a full vision of what he can do as long as Tua can get him the ball and stay upright.
- [18:49]
A
Yeah, and, and you know, you talk about like Tyreek Hill, he's been suppressed a little bit. But what we saw was like in year one, his rookie season, this guy was pulling. I don't have the number off the top of my head, but it was like near 10 targets per game and they were all these short, low value targets near the line of scrimmage. But then year two, Tyreek Hill showed up and we saw a drastic role change where he started running targets deeper downfield or started running routes deeper downfield. And that year he led the league in yards per route run and yards per target, like became hyper efficient. So we know that he's got the ability to draw targets. We know he's got the ability to be a very efficient player. And it just seems like the issue the last two or three years has been that he just lives in the blue medical tent. So I think like, yeah, out of the picture, like if he could just stay healthy. Like I think this guy has the makings to be a premier receiver in the league. And you know, I think health is just going to be the biggest barrier for him at this point. And, and speaking of players with high ceilings where health has often been a. A cap for them. Darren Waller now looks healthy, comes out in his premiere and, and catches two touchdowns I mean, I don't want to say I'm buying into the hype, but I think it's more of just like a statement on how bad the tight end market is. Right now he's inside my top 12 in week five rankings, so I think I'm buying the hype. Are you buying the hype, Josh?
- [20:02]
B
I'm. I'm just glad that he has fully recovered from being stabbed at the end of that music video. I'm just glad that he's made it and made a full recovery. I was afraid. I was. I was worried for him. I'm not buying the hype. I. He. I guess he's fine as a Redraft player because exactly what you just laid out, right? Like, it's just. You're looking for anybody at that position. And if you are to the point where you're looking for Daniel Waller, you're probably. Either you either punted the position, you know, in your draft, or you are dealing with an injury and you're kind of scraping by. And he's a great guy to plug in because he might get you two touchdowns, you know, one week and he's a. He's his numbers in that, you know, one game, he wasn't bad. Ten targets, that's promising. But the fantasy scores propped up a little bit by a couple of touchdowns. And so it pops. It looks really good. People are going to be all over him. I'm trying to find other options if I can. In Dynasty, I'm completely staying away. In Redraft, I guess he's. I mean. Yeah. Flip a coin. Why not? It's, you know. Why not.
- [21:06]
A
Yeah. I mean, all of the sleepers that we thought were going to wake up this season have not. So let's just go back to another one, Darren Waller, and hope that he can be.
- [21:16]
B
Yeah. As long as your expectations are in check. Right. Like, go ahead and throw him in there. Just don't expect that he's going to get these two touchdowns every week. Just kind of, you know, he's. What a crazy career. What a wild career. It's going to be a good, like, you know, 30 for 30 someday, you.
- [21:31]
A
Know, I'm surprised to see that he even came back. Did you see that clip about him, like, talking about how he was blocking and that's like, what kind of like, killed his love for football when he said he was out there and he's like, I had to block on three snakes, straight snaps for the Giants, and I was just like, sitting on the bench after that. Seriously, I'm like, what am I doing? He's like. And that was it for me. I just like lost my love for football. To come out and say that and then come back into the league a year later is kind of crazy. But I, I think what Josh McDaniels knows is like, we're not going to play Darren Waller as a traditional tight end. Like, he's not going to be blocking. He played almost 80 of his snaps as a wide receiver and I think that's just what they're going to use him as, as kind of a big bodied wide receiver. Sticking with this game though, I've got another player I want to talk about and you could take a, a dynasty, a redraft, a weekly perspective, however you want to do this. But it seems like Chuba Hubbard, like a year and a half now of consistent production, but it doesn't seem like he's being valued anywhere near his production. Why do you think that is?
- [22:24]
B
I, I don't know. That's such an interesting question. I saw that on the sheet and it, it, that kind of stopped me. I, I think that he's, I think that he's always kind of felt like a placeholder to people. I think maybe, at least in dynasty leagues, maybe he's always felt like a guy who's primed to lose his job and so you don't want to have, you don't want to invest too much in him. And then they'd go and get Brooks and you think, oh yeah, this was, I was right. He looks like a guy who's primed to lose his job. Except then they pay Chuba even before Brooks gets hurt and then he produces. And so I, I don't know. I'm glad, though. I mean, I've been able to get him fairly cheaply in some startups, you know, in the off season. And he was a guy that I targeted in leagues where I would start with other positions and kind of ignore running back in a couple of startups. And so I'm happy that people are looking at him the way they are. Eventually I think that'll catch up. But what will probably happen then is it'll flip. People will be overvaluing him, his production will fall off a little bit and he'll be overvalued. The value will take too long to catch up to. The production is probably where he's going to end up going.
- [23:23]
A
But I don't think we're there yet. I mean, this guy, we're not, we're not catching a ton of passes and Scoring touchdowns and has no real competition for touches. So like just a huge bite of me out there. I mean, like, he's giving you back end RB1 production right now. And like you said, the, the placeholder. I think that's what everybody thinks is like, okay, last year he was just a placeholder until Jonathan Brooks comes back. And I don't know what the placeholder is this year, but I feel like that thought is still, Jonathan Brooks isn't coming back this year. There's nothing from Trevor ET and Rico Dowdle that makes me think that Chuba Hubbard is like, you know, in gonna lose his job. So I'd say like go out and buy Chuba Hubbard right now. And whether it's Dynasty redraft, like, there's just this perception. I think it's because, you know, a day three pick, he's 26 years old right now. You know, we saw through the first three years he didn't do much of anything at all. But like, cat's out of the bag now and he looks like a much better player than he did early in his career. So I think we could get to a point, like you said, where the value, you know, gets ahead of the production, but I don't think we're anywhere close to that yet. So that tells me he's a buy in all formats.
- [24:23]
B
I, I agree. And I think that the perception on him has always been a little. Get a little bit skewed. I think he, it was his, his second to last year in, in college. I don't remember now if he came out as a junior or senior, but that was his real productive year. He goes back for his last college year and he's not quite as productive. And I think that that perception kind of followed him into the league too. He wasn't drafted as highly as people the year before thought he was going to be drafted when he came out. And so I think that sometimes a player gets tagged with that and it's hard for them to shake it even when they're producing and that that could be part of what's happened with him too.
- [24:58]
A
Yeah, we'll call that the, the Keisha on Booty effect, who is like, you know, pretty good this year, but like not living up to the pre. Pre draft hype that we had built up for him and makes him a nice value. Now another game I want to talk about here. The New York Giants and New York Saints. And for anybody paying attention at home, we're talking about a lot of shifting offenses right now with new play callers and injuries trying to make sense of this. So the New York Giants obviously starting Jackson Dart now. What we saw in his first start, just 20 passing attempts. There was not a lot of volume here. We saw a lot of designed runs, which is very similar to what we saw from Josh Allen early in his career under Brian Dable. So do you have any faith in Jackson Dart keeping a passing attack afloat in New York?
- [25:40]
B
I had a lot more faith in that before the neighbor's injury.
- [25:44]
A
Right.
- [25:46]
B
A lot more faith in it before the neighbor's injury. I was actually. I was excited for. For Dart coming in and what he might mean for. For neighbors. There's not much to keep afloat without Neighbors. It's. It's Wandale and maybe Darius Slayton, who's been running decoy routes, really, for the first four weeks. And so I don't know if you have a receiver capable of sustaining a passing game in New York. I'm not sure that Dart asking a rookie quarterback to sustain, you know, more than one of these pass catchers might be. Might be too much to ask. I think if he could give you fantasy production out of Wondale, out of one guy, that's probably a win for this year for a rookie quarterback in this scenario who just lost his elite option. I do like that he maybe had over 1200 attempts in college. He's a reasonably experienced quarterback for a rookie, and so I like that his legs, he's exciting. He keeps drives alive, he keeps plays alive. And so, you know, in that sense, he could have some big boom type games. But I think to ask him to keep more than maybe one. One fantasy relevant pass catcher would be maybe asking a lot for. For his rookie year.
- [26:58]
A
That's kind of what I missed. Yeah, I mean, like, the, the upside for Jackson Dart was so alluring when you'd say, like, all right, this guy's gonna rush the ball 15 times a game, and then he's gonna just chuck deep balls to Malik Neighbors, who's going to come down with these miracle catches in the end zone. And it's like you saw the upside for a guy to just walk into a top five fantasy season, and that is definitely dampened now without Malik Neighbors there. Which kind of leads me to my next question. Without Malik Neighbors there, Wandell Robinson or Darius Slayton, who do you prefer over the rest of the season?
- [27:26]
B
Yeah, I think I gave it away with the last one. It's. It's. For me, it's Wondale. And the reason is really kind of simple. It's. I think he's, his role is most likely to stay the same without neighbors. I think that Wondale's role is probably going to be what Wanda's role was. I think you're going to see Slayton who's been, he's run 129 roads, he's been targeted 12 times and so he's been running a lot of the decoy. I think the, you know, the clear out routes. I think if he steps into the neighbor's role, I don't know that he does it as well. And I think that Wondale just continues to be Wandale as long as he's healthy. And if, if he becomes sort of a bailout option, you know, as well for Dart then he's the guy I'm hoping will will on a PPR kind of basis be the one who can sustain production all year. He'll be, he'll be more consistent I think than Slayton who's going to need booms, he's going to need touchdowns, going to need big plays where Wanda was going to probably get the shorter game, the quicker passing game and a lot more catches.
- [28:22]
A
Yeah, and I think what we saw from Russell Wilson is, you know, he is a veteran and for all of his flaws, like he could attack every level of the field, he's going to go deep, short, inside, outside, like he is going to throw the ball everywhere. I don't think that that's what they want to do with Jackson Dart is say go out there and be Russell Wilson. I think they're going to try to make it easy for him and get him in a rhythm and the best way to do that is these short passes and Wanda Robinson is great playing out of the slot, getting those free releases where he's just immediately open. So I think we're going to see a lot of just like, like quick timing routes to Wandell Robinson to, to you know, get Jackson Dart in rhythm. I don't know how much value there's going to be because we saw last year, you know, Wandale Robinson horribly inefficient with a high volume role. But he could be trending towards that again this year. But still, I think especially in PPR leagues, like wouldn't surprise me one bit if Wandell Robinson ends up finishing with 80, 90 catches this year just because there are no other options and he's going to be the guy that's going to be working.
- [29:16]
B
Here's the other one is, is it could be a running back, it could be Scatter boo, it could be a guy like that. Who's. I mean, right now, Wondale Robinson and Cam Scatter, who are tied right now, they both have 102 yards after the catch to lead the Giant.
- [29:28]
A
Wow. Right?
- [29:30]
B
That's wild, right? I mean, the Next closest is 53. No, I'm sorry. Ty Tracy has 63 yards after the catch, so it's another running back. Who's your next closest? And so I. Those little shots, those little. I think you're right.
- [29:43]
A
Who's. Who's also, Tyrone Tracy's missed a couple of games, so I think when he comes back, we're also looking at Tyrone Tracy, a converted wide receiver. Camp Scatterboo, very soft hands out of the backfield. Wandell Robinson, who does his best work near the line of scrimmage. So you can work this like kind of horizontal offense with Tyrone Tracy, Cam Scatter, Boo and Wondell Robinson all catching passes at near the line of scrimmage without asking Jackson Dart to do so much. So I think this will be a very developmental year. I think, you know, in your half point per rushing, first down leagues and things of that nature. There's some extra value with Jackson Dart, but definitely kind of taking a wait and see approach with him. Where I can sticking with this game though. I don't think there's a ton to talk about with the New Orleans Saints, but I do want to talk about Juwan Johnson because this guy, you know, everybody thought it was just found gold early in the season. 11 targets in week one, nine targets in week two, eight targets in week three, three targets last week. That is not the downward trend that you want to see, but making me, you know, flashbacks to Isaiah likely last year. At what point when we see this downward trend, do we just say, no, this guy's not startable anymore?
- [30:49]
B
Well, he's a tight end, so he's always startable. Right? I mean, I think we've established. I mean, he's kind of always startable. So I think with him it's less about, you know, is he startable? And more about, again, adjusting expectations. And I think as fantasy players that start, that's the thing that throughout the season you constantly have to do that. You constantly have to kind of reevaluate and reassess and be honest with yourself about your expectations for certain players on your team. And so he's still third on the team in routes, he's still second in targets. I mean, even with that downward sort of run that you just described for, you know, weekly, it's going to be an offense that is Sort of all over the place. It's going to be a team that's going to be behind in a lot of games. I think if you're relying on him, he's another guy who you either. You either took him really late and sort of punted that position and thought, okay, I'm gonna. I'm gonna get this sort of sleeper tight end option late in the draft, or you're dealing with an injury to a guy you drafted early and you're trying to plug him in. So again, it's like there's worse flyers, right? That's got it. That's got it. Maybe he's just due to course correct and go back up now, you know, on those targets because he's not going away. He's going to be there and they're going to be throwing the ball because they're going to be behind in games.
- [32:00]
A
And that's always the nice thing is we love the. The garbage time that you get from these tight ends. I feel like, you know, as a guy who drafted some T.J. hawkinson this year, I feel like that's been every single week so far. This year is just like nothing. And then just like, oh, cool, he caught four passes in garbage time and now he's at least, you know, somewhat startable for me. And that's kind of what you're hoping for, I think, with Juwan Johnson as well. But we've really been scraping the barrel talking about some of these lowly teams of. At first, let's talk about a fun matchup here. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks. Two good offenses, one of which is really exceeding our expectations so far. I want to start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though. Chris Godwin 10 targets last week, but he did very little with them. So do you take that as a positive or negative? Like, is it good that he pulled 10 targets? Is it bad that he didn't do much with him? How should fantasy managers be looking at this return to action for Chris Godwin?
- [32:49]
B
To me, it's a positive. I think I'm looking at it as a positive, and that's whether I'm Dynasty Orange Redraft. Because the most important thing right now is seeing him get back on the field and seeing what he looks like. 10 targets means not only he was involved in the game plan, but he was getting enough. He was getting open enough that he was getting looks and Baker was trying to find him. I didn't. I didn't have as much time as I usually do this week to watch film, but after I Got the show sheet yesterday. I watched. I watched the 10 targets because I wanted to see what, what quality targets they were. A couple of them were picks. I think two of them were interceptions. So it was really like eight targets that didn't get, you know, caught by the other team. He was running a variety of routes. I saw him running at different levels of the field. On a couple of them, I saw at least one deep shot in a few routes, you know, mid and short routes. I felt like he's not maybe getting the best separation yet. And I think on NFL.com it showed about a yard and a half average separation on his routes. And that's. That could just be rust knocking off or it could be lingering effects of the injury. I'm going to choose right now to believe it's rust knocking off. Most importantly, the defense. The. The defense seemed to be treating him like they thought he was back. I was seeing a lot of safeties over the top. I was seeing a lot of people. When he's in the zone, I'm seeing two or three defenders around him. And so clearly the defense thought, if Godwin's back on the field, he's back and he's. And he's the Chris Godwin we expect. I think he's just going to get better from here. I think 10 targets and your first time back off that injury is pretty positive sign. Yeah.
- [34:24]
A
And I think, like, if you're just one of those guys that went like, real heavy on wide receivers and you can afford to like, bench Chris Godwin and you want to take a wait and see approach, that's great. But I think that a lot of people aren't in a position where they have the luxury of benching Chris Godwin. Like, they drafted him in round eight and he's healthy now, and I think the 10 targets is enough to plug him back into your lineup. I think the one thing that I'm not crazy about is that he wasn't playing primarily in the slot. He was kind of switching between the slot and playing out wide. And I remember Ryan Heath, he just did this study over the off season that, like, I cannot get out of my mind that basically when Chris Godwin is in the slot, he is second only to Jamar Chase in fantasy points per route run and fantasy points per game and all this stuff. When he plays out wide, he's like wide receiver 58, basically. So, I mean, just a huge discrepancy in his usage. He is much better out of the slot. So we'll be paying close attention to that usage next week. But I think.
- [35:13]
B
How much of that do you think is a function of Evans being out in his this first game back? I mean, I don't know if they rushed, I don't think they rushed Godwin back, but I think with the injuries they've had, they've had to juggle a little bit at what they thought was going to be a really deep position. And so I mean, how much of him playing out of the slot in that first game is that Mike Evans isn't there on the outside?
- [35:31]
A
I think that's big because what we saw like it seems like last year it was so like Chris Godwin is in the slot and Mike Evans is out wide because that's what they both do best. But now when you have Mike Evans out of the picture and Ameka Ibuka and Chris Godwin both have the elasticity to move in between, they're not just going to say hey Godwin, you're outside and Igbuku, you're in the slot or vice versa. They're going to say hey, both of you guys can do both things. So we're just going to keep defenses on their toes and flip flop and that's kind of what happened. So I think the biggest fear here is that once Mike Evans comes back, one of those guys is going to get pushed out to the flanker role and one of those guys is going to lock into the slot. And I think whoever gets that slot roll is going to be the very valuable one there. But like Mike Evans, he's running the exposition and that's pretty much it. So I'll be really interested to see what this offense looks like when they're at full speed. But I think that what we'll probably see is Abuka and Godwin kind of alternating between flanker and slot while Mike Evans maintains his role at the X. So again, we're just kind of blindly guessing here. We don't really know and we're not going to find out till another few weeks. And then of course once we do find out and Mike Evans returns, he might have a ramp up period. And by then, you know, Chris Godwin could be fully up to speed. So so many moving pieces here, but definitely one that I'll be paying close.
- [36:45]
B
And Jalen McMillan comes back and we all this goes out the window. We don't know where to plug him in.
- [36:50]
A
Right? Exactly. Yeah, that's how it is. And I mean we even saw Kate Otten like didn't do a lot fantasy wise, but like Kate otten blade, like 48 of his snaps out of the slot last week as well. So I think they're having fun here. You know, Josh Grizzard knows what he has in these pieces, and I think there's a lot more flexibility with the pass catchers now than what he has had historically. But sticking with Tampa Bay, Bucky Irving, we don't know for sure what's going on. And, and, you know, maybe by the time this comes out Friday morning, we'll have more clarity. We're hearing day to day, we're hearing week to week. We're seeing a walking boot and crutches, which is cause for panic. We're also hearing second opinions, which we never want to hear, that a player is seeking second opinions. But for the sake of conversation, let's just say that Bucky Irving is going to miss sometime. A week, two weeks, three weeks, who knows? But if he has to miss any time. Who do you prefer between Rashad White and Sean Tucker?
- [37:39]
B
That's, that's a difficult question. I think in the short term, I prefer Rashad White because I think he's going to maintain at least what he's, the role he's had so far and maybe pick up a little more volume because Irving's out and then Tucker's going to kind of come in and pick up some of the scraps. Tucker might get the biggest bump, though, because he's right now getting zero. And so he, you may see the biggest change in Tucker, even if Rashad White ends up the more valuable of the, of the two backs and they might both end up actually being playable if Tampa decides to kind of spread those touches around. Tucker's capable, man. I mean, he, he, he's, he can break off long runs. He's strong. He's. He's been kind of buried here because they've had a couple of good backs in front of him. But he seems, when he's had the opportunity, he's, he's performed well. And so I, it's long term. You could see him. If this goes to a long term thing, you could see Tucker get more valuable. But short term, I think he gets the bigger bump. But White has more value. Yeah.
- [38:43]
A
And I mean, we saw one game last year where they like, fully unleashed Sean tucker. Yeah, like 190 yards and two touchdowns. So, I mean, like you said, you say capable. Like, I'd, I'd say capable is underselling it. Like, this guy can be really, really good when given the opportunity. Great size adjustment at speed, he can catch balls. He can do all that. But we also know this staff really likes Rashad White. Like again like we so quick to forget in fantasy just two years ago Rashad White was a top five season long running back. Like he can handle a big workload as well and he's got past catching chops that we like. So I think I'm gonna side with Rashad White a little bit. But I think that what you said like both of these guys can be serviceable and startable. I think that's absolutely the right takeaway here. Now talking about the Seattle Seahawks, this is a very open ended question so I'm just going to throw it out there. How do you expect the backfield to shake out over the rest of the year?
- [39:30]
B
I think just like it has so far to start the year through the first four weeks, I think that what we've seen, they love the run Walker but Charbonnet has just kind of forced his way onto the field in some ways here. He's shown that he can be a capable runner that he can fill in when Walker's out. Most importantly though, this is they're. They're going to be built on playing like really good defense and trying to run the ball as much as possible. And so to have these two guys who are I don't want to say interchangeable but sort of similar in their, in their build and their ability to, to stack carries throughout a game, I, I think they'll use them both. I. It could be very frustrating for fantasy managers throughout the year because it could be that it's going to be a week to week. You don't know who it's going to be. It might not be like we've seen in Detroit the last couple years where Gibbs and Montgomery are both going to get points and you can pretty reliably put them both in your starting lineup. I don't expect that because I don't think they're going to be that explosive of an offense. But whichever back is in there is getting the totes that week is got a chance to be productive and unfortunately I think we're going to be guessing a little bit week to week unless one of them gets hurt.
- [40:40]
A
And I think that is kind of like a Detroit, like a diet Detroit maybe like and I think like the investments they've made, like the offensive line is starting to come together together and they have two very different guys. And, and I think that there is like as fantasy managers we love Kenneth Walker because he's got the big play upside and we love big play upside And Zach Charbonnet, I see so many people just like, you know, throw him into that plotter bucket and say, like, what is this guy doing out there? But he also brings a very valuable thing to an NFL team. Like, he mitigates losses, he doesn't get tackled in the backfield. And for all of the big plays that Ken Walker has, he's also going to have that cutback that doesn't work where he's eating 8 yards and then they're sitting at second and 18 and Charbonnet isn't going to put them in that position. So I think that Zach Charbonnet is very much so like a better real life football player than he is in fantasy football. But because he's a good real life player, it means that he gets a lot of snaps and he gets a lot of opportunities, which makes him a good fantasy player as well. So I, I'm with you. I like both of these guys and I think, like, if I had to pick one rest of season, it would be Ken Walker because of the big play upside. But Sharpening is still a guy that, like, especially as we're sitting here, you know, I don't. I'm sure you're in the same boat, Josh, but like, I'm hoping Kevante Turpin is active so I can start him in leagues this week. Like, injuries and buys come at you fast. And I think that Charbonnet is already just in that weekly starter discussion. One more question I've got about this, this Seattle Seahawks team, is Sam Darnold a buy? I'm just gonna ask the question and then I'll provide my take after.
- [42:08]
B
I think Sam Darnold, I think I described him once when I was doing Dynasty, ranks as plain oatmeal mixed with existential dread. Like, he'll, he's gonna get the job done, but when you're, when you're, when it's over, you're gonna be like, what was the point? What's the point of this? That seems mean for Sam. To Sam Darnold, that seems, that seems a little bit disrespectful. Sorry, Sam. I don't mean it disrespectfully. He's not a buy for me. I want a little bit more excitement. I'm looking at, you know, and I'm thinking mostly Dynasty redraft. I think he's fine. But again, they're with their average in 221 yards passing. They're putting up points, but it's 110 yards on the ground. I Mean, they're, they're, they're limiting other teams about 16 points a game. So this is going to be a grinded out sort of offense, I think, and they're going to ask Darnold not to make a lot of mistakes. So for me, I'm not really buying them. But if you're in a super flex and you're in a dynasty, you can do worse than Darnold as a second guy as long as you like oatmeal.
- [43:12]
A
And I think my thing, you know, you do talk about it like it's been a very low volume passing offense, but I wonder if that's going to change at some point. Like, we got to remember there are so many new things here. A new offensive coordinator, a new offensive line, a new quarterback, new wide receivers. And I almost wonder if they're just like slowly going to open the playbook over time because we have seen, you know, Clint Kubiak, he wants to establish the run and he's going to run a ball a lot and if he's in a game script where he can lean on the run, he's going to do that. But I wonder if they're going to hit a certain point in the season where they're like in a pretty good NFC west and they might have to start airing it out a little bit. And that's why I think Sam Darnold might be a buy because right now we're just seeing like low volume, efficient football. But what happens if we get that, that boom game, then all of a sudden the door slams shut on Sam Darnold. So I think there's still reason to buy now because the efficiency has been there and if we just see that volume uptick a little bit, then we could be looking at a fantasy relevant player just like he was last year in Minnesota.
- [44:08]
B
Except he's not last year in Minnesota.
- [44:11]
A
That is, that is very fair.
- [44:14]
B
I agree with everything you said and I guess my only pushback, my pushback to that would be we have enough of a track record on Darnold that we've seen, we've seen him succeed in a small window and we've seen him not so much succeed in a much bigger data set. Right? And he's, we've seen him succeed in Minnesota with KOC and in that, in that structure, I'm afraid that if you ask Darnold to start being a more high efficiency quarterback, if they do turn the offense into that, if they go that direction, that's when bad Sam starts to come out.
- [44:47]
A
And so maybe in the playoffs last year.
- [44:49]
B
Yeah, we did. And so I, I wonder if maybe he's one of those quarterbacks that's. Maybe he's got a sort of. He's got a. A safe place to be in terms of how many attempts he's going to make and what he's asked to do. And he can be productive, both from a real life and fantasy standpoint if he stays in that safe place. And when they get him outside of it, I'm afraid that I make a move for Sam Darnold now, and then what. What you just described happens and he turns back into bad. I'm out. Whatever it is that I made a.
- [45:21]
A
Move with, maybe I'm putting a little bit too much weight into it. I just, like, I, I think now he has the degree from the Kevin o' Connell learning how to play quarterback, good school. And I. And I hope that, like, that degree carries some weight and can help him in his future. You know, I don't want to completely write off what we saw in New York. I'm excited. You know, some of the things that, like, made him the second overall pick, you know, like the, the big arm and the ability to throw on the run, that's been on display this year, and that gets me a little bit excited. But I think there is always that fear. And, like, I'm not saying you specifically, but I think, like, what you're saying about, like, the fear that he does just turn into a pumpkin one of these days. I think everybody has that fear. And I think because of that consensus fear, that's why I think he might be a little bit of a buy.
- [46:03]
B
Yeah, I like it. I mean, this is so, this is the way you have to look at these, these fantasy assets, right? You have to find. This is where you, you find the, the advantages to be found on the margin and to think of things a little bit differently than. Than everybody's thinking of them. It used to be you just had to know things because everything wasn't online and you just had. If you just had.
- [46:21]
A
Now everybody knows everything.
- [46:23]
B
Yeah, now everybody knows everything. So you got to find these little, like, angles to try to play. A lot of times they're not going to work, but when they do, you're going to win a league because of it, and, you know, you get to crow about it for a year, so.
- [46:34]
A
Exactly. And. And that's what I like about football, guys, is like, nobody on staff here has ever been afraid of thinking outside the box. And I think that's just what makes our, Our Our, our group of staff. So special. All right, let's talk about another one here. And Josh, as I always do when I have, you know, friends on this show, I always want to talk about the team that they are a fan of. Otherwise I probably would have skipped over this game because I think we're going to be looking at a beat down here. You are from Detroit. You are a Detroit Lions fan. They had to Cincinnati to play against the Bengals, which might be the worst team in football right now. Let me ask you though, because you're gonna have some special insight. And then also I want to preface this. I think a lot of people say that like, like fans aren't able to objectively analyze their own team. I think a lot of people say that like they look through them in rose colored glasses or whatever. I see it completely differently. I think that fans of teams are going to have extra insight into the teams that a casual person doesn't like. I'm trying to analyze 32 teams at once, but I know that I have a much deeper understanding of the Bears than I do the other 31 teams. So I respect the heck out of fans because I know that they are going to have a deeper understanding of these teams. So that's why I want to talk about this. And this is an earnest question for you and I'm not even going to have a take on this. I just want you to tell me what should we do with Jameson Williams?
- [47:48]
B
Hopefully your expectations were. Were set correctly during draft season for James.
- [47:54]
A
No, my. My expectations were so high, Josh. I have Jameson Williams on almost every single team. I was relying on this guy as a wide receiver too. And that's why I'm earnestly asking you, what do I do?
- [48:03]
B
Let me see if I can help you out. Let me see if I can make you feel a little bit better. I think still, I still think he can return that kind of value. He. He is. His role is going to be inconsistent when it comes to scoring fantasy points. But he's another player like we talked about. I forget who. We're just talking about who's going to be because he does the right things that get him on the field. Yeah, this. He. This kid has embraced blocking as a wide receiver. He is willing to run. He's willing to do cardio all day if it opens up things underneath. This is going to be. He affects defenses. Somebody has always be deeper than Jameson Williams and every defense has knows that coming in. Right. If there's a guy on that field that you've got to know where he is, it's jamo because he can run by you at any moment. And so he has all these impacts on a game without even touching the ball. And so part of their offense is designed to take advantage of that. And so that's why I say expectations maybe were got a little bit out of hand during the spring, in the summer, especially with the new coordinator talking about taking more deep shots and getting him involved more that way. The. The heart of this team, this, this offense is still going to run through the running backs and through Amara St Brock Brown and everything else is going to be designed to help the offense run through the running backs and Aman Ross St. Brown. And I think that that's what people maybe missed in the spring and in the summer about, about what this offense was going to look like. That'd be.
- [49:37]
A
I totally bought into that. And I'll say like, if you're one, like anyone listening, like, what sucker would think Amon Ross St. Brown wouldn't be the focal point? Me, I was the sucker. Like, I looked at like what Ben Johnson had done with slot receivers throughout his career. Ben Johnson out of the picture. I was just like, Jameson Williams, top 10 pick. He could run all the routes like he's gonna take over. And what a fool I was for buying.
- [49:56]
B
Would you be, would you be surprised to learn that JMOs run 124 routes to Amara's 123?
- [50:05]
A
No, I. I'm aware. I know he's been out there. Like, I know he's the route runner. I know that. But. But like you said, his speed kind of works as a function to open up the underneath stuff. I think that's why the run game's so good. That's why Amanra is on an island. And I think, like, just to talk about that speed, one of my favorite clips that I saw and like, it didn't get blown up on social media or anything. But when the Lions had their joint practice with Miami, you are very familiar with Melafonwu, you know, the safety that left Detroit. So he knows Jameson Williams speed. And there was a play where he was trying to keep up with Jameson Williams and he just gave up. Like, just like literally just went to a jog and just let Jameson Williams run away because he said he knew there was no way he was going to catch Jameson Williams. He might be one of the fastest guys out there, but unfortunately they're asking him, like you said, to do a lot of cardio to open up that underneath stuff.
- [50:50]
B
Yeah. And he's I mean, that's. He's electric. He's electric and that's why there are going to be games where he's going to have, you know, the four catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns. That's going to happen. You're going to get those games. But he. Nothing really changed from last year in terms of how his points are going to come. And I think that's maybe the mistake people were making in the summer was maybe he's going to get more catches and more consistent production. But really, I don't. His role didn't change in the offense at all other than maybe more deep shots, which are, as we discussed, partly intended to open up the. The underneath stuff. But there are going to hit a few and we're going to see them throughout the year. So have, don't, don't have any fear. Don't bail on them yet. I've got them in a couple places too. I'm hanging on to them. I'm. I'm looking at them more as a. One of those players that I love putting in as a wide receiver three in my lineup. Right. Because he might give me wide receiver one numbers and if he doesn't, he's my wide receiver three.
- [51:47]
A
Right.
- [51:48]
B
You know, so he's one of those guys and that's how I've continued to look at him. But I think there are going to be weeks where he is absolutely going to give you those wide receiver one numbers. You just have to look at him as that kind of player that you're putting him into a lineup when you have other maybe more stable players around him to be your boom guy to try to sort of give you that explosive score, you know, for the week where your floor guys are all set and so you need those boom guys and Jamo's a great, a great boom guy for those lines.
- [52:17]
A
Let me ask you right now, he's currently the wide receiver, 38 and a half PPR scoring end of the season, do you think that he finishes above or below that number?
- [52:26]
B
I think he's going to finish above that number, yeah. I don't know.
- [52:30]
A
I had him as like my wide receiver. 22 in pre draft rankings is where I had him.
- [52:34]
B
I believe I could see him 25 to 35 and anywhere in that range. And it could be just the number of boom games he has there that decides where on that scale he. He ends up. But I think he's going to be one of those players who at the end of the year you're going to look at his counting stats and say, man, he put up numbers. But if you look at week to week, you're going to see that a lot of those were, you know, four catches, like I said, for 150 yards. And there's going to be weeks where he's going to have, you know, two targets or, or you know, that's just how he's going to be.
- [53:00]
A
So another guy I want to talk about in the Lions is David Montgomery.
- [53:03]
B
Yeah.
- [53:03]
A
Oh, sorry about that.
- [53:05]
B
No, go ahead.
- [53:05]
A
Yeah, David Montgomery. What? We saw week one, you know, there wasn't a lot of production. Weeks two and three we saw David Montgomery kind of bounced back to his old self and then last week, 1.2 half PPR points. So I've had a lot of start sick questions saying like hey, should I bench David Montgomery this week? What are your thoughts on benching David Montgomery?
- [53:24]
B
Bench him with caution. I've, I've benched them in one league where I had been starting them all season last season, him and Gibbs both. I actually started both of them all year, which I don't tend to do, but they were both startable. And I think this is one area where Detroit's offense has changed a little bit and not so much in the, the types of plays that are called. But Gibbs has just kind of seized a role here as the, the roles have flipped and Gibbs has seized that number one role and Montgomery still has a lot of value. He's going to be a little more touchdown dependent. He scored, you know, his points come from touchdowns more than. Gibbs is getting a lot of more receptions. But look at his carries. He's. He's had the two boom weeks but if you look at his touches, 11, 11, 12, nine on his carries, pretty consistent. I mean what. It's not that he's not getting the touches, he's going to get those now. That's not what he was getting maybe last year he's not going to get those 15 carry games maybe as much because that's the difference in Gibbs getting more but he still gets enough that he's going to be a valuable piece to rosters as we start getting into bye weeks and as more injuries pile up. Is he an every week starter? Maybe not. Maybe he's more of a, of a matchup, you know, dependent starter.
- [54:39]
A
But which I gotta say this does feel like a good matchup going up against Cincinnati like if there's a game. So I don't want to make like it's so hard to make like a one to one comp But Jeff Bell and I, we were talking about the Detroit backfield on the show earlier this week, and we said it kind of starting to feel like the Atlanta backfield, where it's just like Bijan Robinson is the focal point, the star of that offense, much like Jameer Gibbs is. But then what we do see are these games where they're up two scores and then Tyler Algier just comes in and gets. When he touches in the second half and ends up giving you a huge week because he finds pay dirt a couple of times. I think that's kind of where David Montgomery is now. He might not be coming in for all of the goal line looks, but in these game scripts that are going to benefit the Lions, that's when we could see Montgomery kind of come in for cleanup duty and have a huge week in fantasy.
- [55:20]
B
Absolutely. And I think the other thing that he does really well is he gets the offense going. Sometimes when they are a little bit stalled out or when they're having a little bit of a hard time clicking, they hammer it with Montgomery two or three times up the middle. They just let him kind of run people over and bowl, and that gets the whole offense juiced up a little bit because everybody kind of gets your plays on time. It keeps you in, you know, in good down and distance, and it kind of gets everybody going. They're. They're a tough team, and he epitomizes that. So when they're. When they're struggling, they might lean on him a little bit to. To get them going, too. He's not going anywhere. He's not. He's. He's going to be a part of the offense. He just. I just think it's kind of like Jameson Williams. You can't. You're not gonna be able to rely on him week to week like you could maybe last year, because that's where the offense has changed a little bit, it seems to me, through the first four weeks, like with Morton calling plays, this is going to be one of those teams where you can rely on Gibbs and you can rely on Amon Ra. And then every week there's going to be another guy. Sometimes it's going to be Jamo, and sometimes it's going to be LaPorta, and sometimes it's going to be Montgomery. And trying to get. Figure that out is going to be frustrating to us. But I think that's what this offense is going to be as, as they go through the season.
- [56:35]
A
I think it's the perfect read because we have seen the Laporta blow up game, and we've seen the JBO blow up game and we've seen the David Montgomery blow up game. I think that is the perfect way to, to look at this offense. I haven't heard anybody say that yet, and I think that that is just like a perfect way to view this.
- [56:49]
B
Thank you. We're done. Wrap it up.
- [56:52]
A
Well, let's talk about the, the Cincinnati Bengals. And I really only have one question here. I think we, you know, kicked a dead horse enough talking about Chase Brown. And, you know, it was Alfredo Brown sit of the week. I think everybody is kind of, you know, this isn't a good matchup either. So I understand the Chase Brown stuff, but I want to talk about Jamar Chase because, like, we're panicking about this entire offense at this point, and I think a lot of people, you know, it's really easy to say, like, bench Jamar Chase. It's a lot harder to actually bench Jamar Chase in your lineup. But, you know, there are people out there that are in like, shallow leagues. You know, maybe Strike struck gold with some late round picks that are outperforming their expectation right now. So who are some people that you would like realistically start ahead of Jamar Chase this week?
- [57:34]
B
There's nobody actually benching Jamar Chase. Right. Is that really happening, people benching Jamar Chase?
- [57:39]
A
I've had people ask me, Keenan Allen, Devonte Adams, you know, because they got him so late in drafts.
- [57:45]
B
Yeah.
- [57:45]
A
Like right now, like, I, crazy as it sounds, and you know, the worst part about this is we're recording this on Thursday. This episode comes out Friday morning. Devonte Adams plays on Thursday night. So for me to say I have Devonte Adams ahead of Jamar Chase, if he goes for like 2 and 16 today, I'm gonna look like an absolute idiot when everybody's listening to this. But I've got Devonte Adams as my wide receiver seven in week five rankings, and I have Jamar Chase as my wide receiver 8. So I think, like, let's say you've got, you know, and I think those are like the big ones, but like, like Quentin Johnson, Allen and Devonte Adams. Do you think it's crazy to think about putting those guys in ahead of Chase?
- [58:20]
B
For me, it is. I, I, he's still, to me, a guy I can't, I'm not putting, I'm not moving him out of my line. He's staying right where he is because I know what he's capable of doing any given. And at some point, they're going to figure out how to consistently get him the ball a little bit more, I have to believe. For this week I was looking at our consensus, you know, week five rankings on the site just to see who you guys as you rank for the weeks might have put ahead of them. Puka and maybe Amara are the two that I saw on the list ahead of them that I might say, like I would rather have those guys than Jamar Chase, but I don't know any.
- [58:51]
A
Team that's got all three of those guys.
- [58:53]
B
Yeah, right, right. But I would point out that both starting cornerbacks might be out for Detroit this week. I mean one reads on ir Arnold left the game last week with an injury. So if they're, they're, they're thin in the defensive backfield, they're going to have Rocky Sin and Amik Robertson probably as our two outside corners to start this game if Arnold doesn't play. And so if there's a get right moment potentially here for Chase, it could be against backup cornerbacks for Detroit in a game where they're likely to be behind and have to throw the ball a little bit. So I hesitate to lower them too far. But I might put Puka and I'm a ride ahead of him if I was doing ranks right now.
- [59:36]
A
And that's why I'm happy to have this conversation because like I said, it's really easy to say Jabbar Chase is benchable until you actually have to make that decision and rank enough players ahead of him. And I just want to remind people, Jake Browning, yeah, it's looked terrible but we saw Jamar Chase in a full game with Jace Browning back in 2023, have 11 catches, 149 yards and a touchdown.
- [59:54]
B
Yes.
- [59:55]
A
And we saw not too long ago that when Joe Burrow was knocked out of that game, what did Jake Browning do? He hyper targeted Jamar Chase every chance that he got and since then it's been two brutal matchups on the road against Minnesota, on the road against Denver. Now he gets to play in Cincinnati and the Denver, you know, Detroit defense is no slouch. Like they're going to put some pressure on him as well. But I think given the last two starts, this is a much easier matchup for Jake Browning than anything he's had to do over the last two weeks. So I think if there is an opportunity to buy Jamar Chase it is going to slam shut after this week. So yeah, I'm not benching him where I have him. Unless you have just built some sort of Absolute monster where you've got got Amanra Puka, Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins on your team, then maybe you're doing it. But I don't know many people that are in that position. So worth talking about and I'm glad we had that conversation. Josh, One more game though. Sunday Night Football. I want to talk about this one as well. New England Patriots go to Buffalo to play against the Bills, and I have a take that got a lot of pushback this week, and this is more of a redraft take than a dynasty take. But Drake May has had a cake schedule through the first four weeks. I don't know if there's a quarterback out there that's had an easier schedule than Drake May. Now he gets his first kind of tough matchup here, going on the road and facing off against Buffalo. So right now he's the QB5 in fantasy. Do you think he maintains that pace or could you see this kind of come crashing back down to earth?
- [61:24]
B
I think he can maintain. Doesn't seem like it's been out of the realm of, of sort of exceptional for him. It seems like he's kind of just gotten comfortable and that they're calling some. They're calling an offense that he's comfortable in. Bill's defense number 18 against quick passing so far. Patriots offense number two. When you look through the advantages here, if they, if they do some quick passing, they can take advantage of some of those things that maybe Buffalo doesn't do as well. I don't see any reason he can't maintain. They don't have a big explosive offense, but they seem to be calling it in a way that is protecting their, their young quarterback and allowing him to grow. And it seems like there's a plan there that I don't know, that there seemed to be maybe last year. And so I, I don't. I think this is by design. I don't think this is by accident that he's playing as well as he's playing.
- [62:18]
A
Yeah. And I think the, the fear for me is that, like, I think it's really tough for a quarterback to maintain this sort of pace when he doesn't have a wide receiver. And like, we were hoping Stefan Diggs would help him elevate the same way that Josh Allen was elevated by Stefan Diggs. So kind of leads me to my next question here. There was so much this off season, like, is Demario Douglas going to be the wide receiver one? Is it going to be Kyle Williams, Stefan Diggs K Sean Booty? And I think the one person nobody really talked about at the time was Hunter Henry. And I'm just wondering, is Hunter Henry the wide receiver one for the Patriots now?
- [62:48]
B
Yeah, the numbers say he is. Right. When you look at just the raw numbers, they say Hunter Henry is the number one receiver. But look at, at, look at how the, their numbers kind of stack up. This has been a fun one too, that I looked at this morning. Hunter Henry's run 103 routes, second to boot. Who's run 105 Booty, however you say it, 124 targets and he leads the team. Stefan Diggs has 22. Hunter Henry is 19 catches are second to Diggs is 19. So what I see there is, I see Diggs ramping up. I see Henry so far leading all these categories, but I see Diggs, you know, second in receptions and I see Diggs second in targets. He's third, I think on, on routes run now. Yeah, he is. He's third behind Henry and Boute's run. So what I see is Hunter Henry so far maybe has been the number one receiver. But watch digs now start to start to take off a little bit. He's. I think this has been a ramp up period these first four weeks.
- [63:48]
A
And sometimes I ask these questions like hoping for that answer and you're passing the show with flying colors, Josh. You're just walking in here, you're answering these questions exactly how I want you to. And I think that is the major takeaway here is that like, yeah, if you just look, overall, Hunter Henry has been the most productive guy so far. But what I see for Stefan Diggs is 117 combined receiving yards in his first three games, 101 receiving yards last week and ramping up just in time for a game in Buffalo, a revenge game where we know Stefan Diggs is a very emotional player. And you know, every once in a while I'll buy into that revenge narrative and this is one that I'm excited about here. So another player that I think you should buy low on. But it wouldn't surprise me if when this season does come to an end that it's Stefan Diggs and Hunter Henry as the two top targets in this offense because we saw last year as well, there is a connection with Drake May and Hunter Henry, like they just, they, they play together very, very well.
- [64:36]
B
Yeah, Diggs, I mean, right now he's third in in routes run. I just don't see him finishing third in routes running run for the, for the New England. If he's, if he's Finishing in the top two or else run he's going to be their top receiver.
- [64:47]
A
We got to remember when this guy got injured, like it was a mid season injury where everyone was like, all right, he's going to be on IR to start next year. The fact that he was a full go in training camp was a miracle on the field in week one, kind of a miracle too. So like anything that we get in the first month of the season is just kind of a cherry on top of what projection should have been. So he's way ahead of schedule right now.
- [65:05]
B
He was being drafted that way too. I mean, I was, I, I, the, the, the couple places I, I got him in the summer, I think including Scott Fishbowl, were always late. It was always because, because people, I think felt like it could be mid season before he's, he's ramped up and ready to go. But every report you read was like, nah, he's might be ready for the week one. And in that case I thought, well, it won't be too long before he's, you know, their, their top guy.
- [65:28]
A
So it was that video like the second day of training camp when he was chasing the puppy around in the practice field. I don't know if you remember that one right? That's what everyone's like, wait, Diggs, he's moving pretty good out there, chasing after that little puppy. Two more things I want to talk about on this one here. Keon Coleman, you know, not quite a first round pick, but close enough that we can fudge the numbers. You know, 30, 33rd overall pick on a good offense, high hopes for him. And of course we saw week one 11 targets, 8 catches, 112 yards, a touchdown. And you know, everybody was quick to say, the breakout is here. Keon Coleman, it's finally happening. And since then, 2.6 points, 2.0 points, 4.5 points. What are we doing with him? Buying, selling, holding. What are we supposed to do with Keon Coleman?
- [66:12]
B
I was never in on Keon Coleman. I hate to say it because he played. He played. He started out down the road here at Michigan State and, and before he went to Florida State. But I'm selling in a dynasty league because right now I can say that he is leading the team and all meaningful categories other than touchdown, touchdowns. He's, he's leading them and, and you know, the other meaningful categories. And I can point at that if I'm trying to sell him in a redraft. I think I'm going to hold on to him because he's still connected to Josh Allen. And so there's still going to be those games where Josh Allen's going to find him and he's going to boom for you. And he's another guy who, if your expectation was this is going to be my wide receiver one. On my, on my fantasy team, then you're probably disappointed. Even if it was, he's going to be my wide receiver too. You're probably disappointed. But he's another one of those players that has a wide receiver 3. That kind of player on your team can be a good contributor to your roster.
- [67:09]
A
And I also want to say, like, I'm kind of leaning heavily into what we've seen from Quentin Johnson over the last few years. That, like, I don't want to make any declarative statements. And Keon Coleman, like, sure, he looked like a bust in year one. I don't think there's any other way you can say it. But then we saw Flash in week one and like, that's exciting. And, and it might be an up and down year too. But like, we, we, we've gotten so just spoiled with Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson and Pukinakua and these rookies just immediately like sometimes that year three breakout we used to talk about for a reason and sometimes it does take a few years. So, yeah, I don't think you should be panic selling Keon Coleman yet. I think it's way too early for that, but I'm hoping to see how this turns out. Last question I have in this one, James Cook has been an absolute stud so far, just getting all of the opportunities, scoring all the points. We love to see it, but reports this week indicate that Joe Brady wants to increase Ray Davis's involvement. Are you buying into that?
- [68:01]
B
I, I will when I see it. Yep, I will when I see it. I don't care what he says. I want to see it on the field before I'm gonna make a move based on it. He should be. Davis is a good player and he's, and he's, you know, performed well when he's been given the opportunity, but I think you hit on it right now. Cook's been so good, it's hard to see a role for anybody else right now. I, I think that to preserve Cook, Cook, though, they're gonna, they have to find somebody who, who they're gonna use more to. To make sure that Cook makes it through the season. And Davis is the perfect guy for that. He's, he's. There was a nice little one, two punch. They started out a little bit last year, and they should use them more. I don't know if they will, but they should.
- [68:44]
A
I also think Davis is one of those guys that he gets better with volume, and we saw that, like, in the one start he had last year, over 150 scrimmage yards. And I think the issue is that when you just. Just give him a touch here and there, he can't really get going. So this is exactly what I said to Jeff Bell, because we talked about the situation a few days ago and I said exactly what you said. I was like, I'll believe it when I see it. Like, it's really easy on a Monday afternoon to say we need to get Ray Davis more touches. It's a lot harder to pull James Cook off the field when he's averaging five and a half yards per carry and put Ray Davis out there who's averaging just over two yards per carry. So, yeah, I want to see it before I buy into it. I've heard some people say, like, you know, they're bumping James Cook down in their week five rankings. No, I. I need to see it first. I'm firing him up as an elite RB one where I've got him.
- [69:27]
B
And part of that is because how even just getting Davis more touches doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be productive touches or it's going to eat into Cook. I think you make a good point. He.
- [69:37]
A
He.
- [69:38]
B
This is almost one of those situations that needs. Where they alternate series because Cook. I'm sorry, Davis seems to need rhythm and he needs to get, you know, touch after touch. And when he gets that, you know, even a series to himself, he can be more productive if he's just getting. If they say we're gonna get him more carries and they get him seven touches, but they sprinkle them throughout seven drives, then I don't think they're using the player to his. To his capabilities. And so you're not going to get the fantasy return from that.
- [70:05]
A
Also, without getting, like, too philosophical, people just anchoring themselves to their biases. And James Cook in the preseason, you know, in redraft leagues, was growing. Round four and five, everybody wrote him off, you know, said touchdown regression is going to hit him. He can't maintain the efficiency pace that he had last year, blah, blah, blah, blah. And now he is doing it. So it's almost like people are, like, fishing for reasons to say, like, oh, look at this. Like, you know, Joe Brady said Ray Davis is going to get touches. No, I. I think Ray Davis or James Cook is just going to continue doing what he has been doing and if we see a change on the field, we'll note it and we'll adapt. But until then, yeah, James Cook, I don't know. Top three running back. I think it's hard to keep him out of that conversation.
- [70:44]
B
Why change something that's working so well for him? I mean, why? It's, it's an odd thing for the coordinator to even or the coach to even say, except that he's maybe talking to Ray Davis when he's having that, that interview. He's maybe telling him like, hang in there, man, we're gonna get you some touches. But yeah, Cook's playing. I mean, Davis knows Cook's playing so well. How are they going to get him off the field? So that might just be a coach trying to tell a player like, your time's going to come, man. Don't, you know, hang in there with us. He can't stay this hot forever.
- [71:10]
A
Cover Last question I have for you, Josh and I wrap up every show with the same question. This could be football related or otherwise. What is a hill that you are willing to die on?
- [71:21]
B
My non football hill I would die on would probably take us off on an entire tangent of, you know, could be a whole podcast to itself. I was going to talk about democracy and all this, but I'll leave that for another day. Here's the hill I'll die on. My non football hill. I got a T shirt from a Michael Franti concert years ago and it just says work hard and be nice to people. And that's the, that's the hill I'll die on. That's what I try to, you know, we try to teach our kids and, and I think a little kindness, a little empathy goes a long way and, and people should remember that. So that's the hill I'll die on. That's non football. My, my football related hill. The moment the entire team started singing Billie Jean along with Adrian or along with Aiden Hutchinson during his rookie and we had to sing in front of the team and on Hard Knocks. That's the moment the Lions won the Super Bowl. It hasn't happened yet, but that is the moment they won the super bowl and, and we'll come back to it when that actually happens.
- [72:19]
A
That was good stuff. See, for me, I think the moment the Lions won the super bowl was when Dan Campbell. I'm trying to remember off the top of my head. I shared the video on Twitter at the time. I want to say they were 0 and 8. 8. And he gave this press conference crying at the podium.
- [72:33]
B
Yes.
- [72:34]
A
And I shared that. And I said, I have never had more faith in a winless coach than I do in Dan Campbell. And it was like right after that game that they started to rally. Like, I've got chills right now just thinking about it, dude. That for me, like, I was like, I. Like this team hasn't won anything. They haven't proven anything, but I am so bought in as a Bears fan. Very jealous of what you guys have in Dan Campbell. Just an amazing coach, man. He's awesome.
- [73:00]
B
Yeah. Yeah, go ahead.
- [73:00]
A
Sorry, what you said. The. The work hard. And was it work hard.
- [73:07]
B
Work hard and be nice to people. Just.
- [73:09]
A
So Scott Fish. Scott Fish has kind of coined this phrase, and it's the. The banner on his Twitter page. Work hard, Be a good person. Everything else will follow. So what you're speaking is something that a lot of people in the fantasy industry have heard multiple times already. I love that. Josh, before we sign off, you know, do let everyone know where they can find you. Twitter, Blue sky, podcasts, articles, all that good stuff. Just let the people know where they can find you.
- [73:34]
B
You will find all my articles. Any writing and ranking I do, you will find only at football guys and on social. I'm. I'm only on Blue Sky. That's the only place you'll find me. I'm at Dynasty Decode on. On Blue Sky. But mostly I'm on football guys trying to. To find ways to, you know, not mess up the. The flow over there.
- [73:56]
A
Yeah, you know, I find myself spending less and less time on social media and more and more time on football guys content. And it's nice, dude. It's a good company. And I just want to say, like, personally, so happy to have you a part of the team. For anybody who doesn't know, Josh joined less than a year ago, joined us mid season last year. Got the chance to meet you in person. You are just as good of a person as you are an analyst. Just an absolute pleasure getting to talk some shop with you today. Thank you so much for making the time and. And want to thank everybody else who took the time to listen today. I'll be back next week with Mike Kashuba, another one of our newer staffers over here at Football Guys. This has been great doing this in season, you know, letting some of our new people get on a mic, talk some ball and familiarize themselves with the audience. So, Josh, the audience, everybody who took the time to listen today, I want to thank you so much for tuning in and we will see you next week. Foreign this episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance.
- [74:55]
B
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A
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B
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A
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B
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