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What's Real and What's Fake From Week 1? || Fantasy Football 2025
01:08:53
In Episode 261 of the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, Dave Kluge and Alfredo Brown look at some of the major storylines from Week 1, trying to add context and decipher what's real and what's not. Send your questions to...
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- [00:00]
Alfredo Brown
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- [00:29]
Dave Kluge
Dude, it's. It's just like. It's so hard. Week one of the NFL season, I feel like I'm just, like, drinking out of a fire hose. There's just so much to take in.
- [00:38]
Alfredo Brown
All right, you ready to do it?
- [00:40]
Dave Kluge
Let's do it.
- [00:43]
Alfredo Brown
You ready?
- [00:45]
Dave Kluge
I am in so much pain.
- [00:49]
Alfredo Brown
I asked if you were ready to start a podcast where we stay seated and speak and you started stretching.
- [00:57]
Dave Kluge
I haven't been to the gym yet this week. Like, I haven't had time to do anything. Like, this is the point of the year where it's just like, I'm at my desk and I'm like, why am I, like, angry and sweaty? And I'm like, oh, my God, it's 6:30pm and I haven't eaten anything today.
- [01:09]
Alfredo Brown
And I haven't left your back stiff? My back is so stiff sitting in.
- [01:12]
Dave Kluge
The chair all day, so my back is super stiff, but it's even, like, worse. I don't know about you, but, like, I'm at that age now where like, a night out of my own bed just hurts my entire body. And the week leading up to the season, I was in Chicago and then I was in Vegas. So I spent six of seven nights on the road sleeping in different beds. One of the. One of them was in my office. I'm way too old to be sleeping out of food. Hotel beds, Are you kidding?
- [01:38]
Alfredo Brown
It's. It's the weirdest thing. I don't. I don't have a reason why. I love hotel beds and hotel pillows. I even stole a hotel pillow.
- [01:46]
Dave Kluge
Like, the down ones, I feel like they don't like. So at home I have, like, a thick foam pillow, and it's like, heavy duty foam that, like, keeps my head propped up. Hotel pillows. Those, like, really down pillows, I feel like I put my head in and within, like, 10 seconds, my head is just touching the mattress. Like, it doesn't even support My head.
- [02:02]
Alfredo Brown
See, I feel like I like that because the other ones feel like they're pushing my head up so much that I'm just, like, sleeping with a bad posture. I can't. I can't do it. I don't know why. It's. It's. It's one of the. It's definitely one of the weirdest things about me that I love. Hotel beds and pictures, pillows.
- [02:17]
Dave Kluge
If I sleep one night not in my own bed, there's, like, a 90% chance that I'm gonna wake up with a kink in my neck. And that's why, like, I'm stretching before the show. I've got a kink in my neck. My upper back, like, just absolutely wrecked. My body traveling before the season kicked off. Then I've spent the last three days just, like, in a chair, glued to a screen, re Watching games like this is. This is detrimental to my body.
- [02:48]
Alfredo Brown
Welcome into the Football Guys fantasy football show. I'm Alfredo Brown.
- [02:51]
Dave Kluge
Good as always.
- [02:51]
Alfredo Brown
Got Dave Kluge here. Dave, he's breaking down all of our biggest questions from week one going into week two. Because this is the information, I think we can kind of decide what's real, what's fake. Should we be panicking? Should we be excited? Are these players going to be fantasy stars the rest of the season? It's a bit of an overreaction week, I would say, right?
- [03:11]
Dave Kluge
Is that.
- [03:12]
Alfredo Brown
Is that what we're doing here today?
- [03:13]
Dave Kluge
Yes. We will overreact responsibly, of course. We're not going to overreact too much, but it's so tough, like, this time of year. Like, what's real, what's fake? Like, what should we be paying attention to? What should we throw out the window? And Alfredo, I think something you and I do well, and, like, I don't want to toot our horns too much, but, like, we kind of understand a little bit of everything. Like, we get the numbers, we understand narrative, we watch the film, we watch the games, we understand game flow and all this sort of stuff. So I think the major purpose of this show, because this is a new show that we're doing this season. So thanks to everybody who's tuning in while we try something a little bit new, but to kind of add context, because I think a lot of people are just going to, like, see the box score and see the overall fantasy production for some players and either get, like, way over their skis or panic. And what we're doing is looking at specific situations that we kind of decide on before we Record the show that we're able to go look at the film and watch all the touches and add some context to this. So I am really excited for this show because I think this is going to help us decipher what's real from what's fake.
- [04:10]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. And that's, that's the idea here, is add the context clues, give you everything from the data to the film to just what we saw and how that's going to help you win here in the following week. So, Dave, let's kick this off with Bill Jakori, Crosky, Merritt. This has been a guy that everyone was really excited about going into the season. And at least after week one, I think people are even more excited now. And I watched the film, checked out every single rush attempt that he had. And I will say this like there is some merit to Jakori Krosky. Merit.
- [04:47]
Dave Kluge
And oh my God, you wrote that one last night, didn't you? You were waiting.
- [04:51]
Alfredo Brown
No, actually I didn't. I was that just off, fresh off the dome right here. He's got some juice. Like he's, he does have it. He does have ability. Some tremendous stop start ability. Good footwork. Like, this is not a guy who is just falling into a role and just out there getting a ton of volume. He had 10 carries. I will say this, there are plenty of things that add context to the good performance here and one of them is he is a habitual bouncer, meaning he is going to bounce every run to the outside. He'll need to win more on these inside runs. I didn't like everything that I saw on film because once defenses start to set the edge on him, this might be a thing where you're not able to just bounce everything outside. We saw that with Trey Benson in the past and Breece hall in the past and Ken Walker in the past.
- [05:38]
Dave Kluge
And a lot of Swift for every game, game of his career throughout his entire life.
- [05:42]
Alfredo Brown
Yep, I, I think that's almost a perfect comp here. If you, if you remove the, like the, the pass catching stuff. I think Jakori, Crosby, Merritt has that Same comp to DeAndre Swift here. Where they do, they try to do a lot of the same things. And what was interesting to me was the splits. Dave, on his inside runs, four attempts inside 11 yards, averaging less than three yards per carry. On the outside runs when he was bouncing it outside, six attempts, 71 yards. One of them was a very long, I believe it was 42 yard run. There was 11.8 yards per carry. This was A guy that, he thrives on the outside.
- [06:16]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I agree there. And it's also worth noting, like I know people are going to see a touchdown, they're going to see a big run. But like that touchdown did come when the game was completely over. At that point, Austin Eckler was out with a shoulder injury. So just adding a little bit of context to that play. Of course he did it and he looked good and he had some burst. But like I've seen so many people hanging on to the PFF score. Have you seen that Alfredo?
- [06:38]
Alfredo Brown
He was graded very highly. Those are also, those are also subjective.
- [06:42]
Dave Kluge
Right.
- [06:42]
Alfredo Brown
Remember there's a person sitting there watching film, offering a score.
- [06:46]
Dave Kluge
Let me ask you, did you watch Derek Henry this week? Would you say that Corey Crosby Merritt played a better game than Derek Henry did? I don't know where these PFF scores come from. I mean, yeah, he had some nice plays, I get it. And Derrick Henry, whatever, you know, probably got dinged for that fumble. But yeah, I think he is a good player. And, and there's so much that needs to be talked about with Jecori Crosby because it's like this weird time of year when a lot of casual fans are plugging in and you've kind of got like the, a lot of the fantasy football analysts are still in best ball mode and dynasty mode where Jacori Crosby Barrett was like a 5th round rookie pick or picked up off a waiver. So like a lot of people were celebrating that it was like found money. And then you have people in best ball that were like, you know, celebrating that they drafted him in round 18. And I think that it was almost like a, like a pump and dump in a way. Like there was like this huge ADP burst for Jakori Krosky Merritt, where he was going in sixth round of high stakes drafts and best ball drafts. And I think that people got way over their skis here. I think what we saw is like him in a split with Austin Eckler. They have very complimentary skill sets. Austin Eckler looked a lot better last year than or last week than he did all of last year. I mean he was running through tackles. He was doing the things that Jakory Crosby Merritt can't do. He, he's very involved as a pass catcher. He's still that guy that can run inside and break tackles. So I think this is a very good complementary skill set where we're going to see Austin Eckler doing what he does. Jaquori Cross key Merritt doing what he does. And then of course Jaden Daniels taking a little bit off the top as well. So when I'm looking at Jacori Cross key Merritt for the rest of this season, I'm kind of seeing him as maybe like a high end RB3. I don't know where you're landing on him, but that's kind of what feels right for me because I don't think Austin Eckler is going to completely disappear long term. That's a completely different discussion. You know, the, the day three, the late breakout older prospect, you know, he could end up going the way of a Jordan Howard or something like that going into next year. But I think for this year, like if you did draft him, you feel like you've got a steady, reliable RB3 Flex option for the rest of the year.
- [08:42]
Alfredo Brown
That's exactly where I have him as a low end RB3. I mean he's still, I, I know we're excited and the role can grow. He still only played 19 snaps and, and you know, like yes, the role can absolutely grow. There's something. So there's a couple things here. One, he's, he's basically a zero in the passing game, which is always a disappointment. But the fact that the, the Commanders really aren't able to run in the interior right, like that's where Jecori Krasnar struggled. Like that means there's still potential for a Chris Rodriguez like revitalization into this offense when they need someone that can get the tough yards and that's just not happening. I'll also just add this context and it sounds like I'm really like downplaying the Jakori Cross key merit thing. I'm just trying not to overreact to what is a statistically good performance in Week 1. The Giants run defense is not very good. They were 26 versus the run last year. In 2024 last season they allowed nine running backs to go for 80 plus yards. Brian Robinson ran for 133 yards against the Giants last year. And the Commanders simply knew what to attack. They were doing this. All of the biggest runs in this game weren't just bounced outside, but they were also designed runs directly at the defensive ends at Cave on Thibodeau, at Brian Burns. Guys who are not good run defenders. They are there to try to rush the pass and there's a lot of over pursuing from Kayvon Thibodeau who would get find himself locked inside and get down blocked. There was just, I, we need to have this context to it. So like yes could the commanders just keep doing this and it work every week? It's possible. Is it likely? I don't think so. Especially going up against the packers next week, where you've got Micah Parsons on there, you've got Rashawn Gary on there. Like, Lucas Van Ness was even playing kind of well for the packers, and they held David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs to a combined 44 yards on 20 attempts. This is a team that also, the packers, they play a lot more zone defense. So I think we're going to be seeing a lot of checkdowns to Austin Eckler down on the flats. And if, if Bill can't provide that, I think we might see people get a little disappointed with him in week two.
- [10:44]
Dave Kluge
So I'll throw some. Some context here and you can kind of give me a heat check. You know, I do my rest of season rankings and Jacqui Crosby, Merritt obviously was a big riser after this week. So here are a handful of names I have directly ahead of. Of Jakori Crosby. Guys that I prefer ahead of him. Jalen Warren, Aaron Jones, J.K. dobbins, Jordan Mason. Would you pick push back on any of those?
- [11:06]
Alfredo Brown
So Jordan Mason. I would not.
- [11:10]
Dave Kluge
We're not gonna dive too deep into that, but my goodness, he looked good.
- [11:12]
Alfredo Brown
He looked excellent. He looked excellent. J.K. dobbins.
- [11:16]
Dave Kluge
I mean, I'm okay if you. If your take on that is just like, I want off the Sean Payton ride, sure.
- [11:21]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. I'm not gonna lie. I kind of do. I kind of want off the JK Dobbins ride as well.
- [11:27]
Dave Kluge
Maybe the Tyler Bidet ride more than anything else at this point.
- [11:30]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. Yeah. It's not that like J.K. dobbins isn't talented. It's just, you know, like the, the compounding injuries, the Sean Payton of it all, like, there's, there's enough that worries me. So.
- [11:41]
Dave Kluge
Aaron Jones and Jalen Warren I have ahead of jcm.
- [11:46]
Alfredo Brown
Jalen Warren did not look good.
- [11:49]
Dave Kluge
He was on the field a lot and I, I think that. But he was also in a split with Gainwell. Yeah, I mean, they're, they're close for me. And then right behind Jacori Crosky, Merritt, guys that I'd prefer. Jakori Crosby, Merit ahead of Nick Chubb, who, like, yeah, the workload was there, but he looked like a guy who has some knee injuries. Yeah. So Nick Chubb, Rashad White, Ray Davis. I actually did move Jacqui Merit ahead of Austin Eckler by a few spots. Caleb Johnson. So I don't think you'd push back on any of those, but I think that's just kind of like a good idea of like where we're looking at him as kind of this, you know, a high upside guy in a committee.
- [12:24]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. And that's what it is. Like you're going to have these, these big games where he's going to bounce something outside, get a 30 yard gain. You're probably not going to get that insulation you want in the receiving game and you might not always get the touchdowns. But I do think the role is going to grow. So I think it's, it's going to be somewhere in the middle between where everyone thinks he's a top 15 running back versus like, you know, putting him down as a low end RB3, RB4. So it's probably most likely we see him end up being a low on RB2 at some point. Let's go to the next question on here, which is the Seattle Seahawks backfield. Dave, this feels like a time to panic because there was a lot of talk about how one, this is very weird for what Clint Kubiak has done throughout his career. Normally his running back one is getting the volume that we want out of a running back one and that's that. Like there is nothing else from his career that would say otherwise. Until now. We get to Ken Walker, we get to Zach Charbonnet, and it is a split. And Zach Charbonnet looked better. He didn't look great, but he looked better. And I think there is something to Ken Walker here where I don't think he's healthy. There's a lot of those explosive plays, the cuts that Ken Walker normally makes. He normally makes one too many cuts. And there was just times here where I was seeing him just not do that at all. He looked a little bit slower, that foot soreness. I worry that there's something being withheld here that we don't know. This injury might be worse than being let on.
- [13:49]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I think that's exactly it. Like he did not look like himself at all. But that's also a very, very, very good San Francisco run defense. And when you look at it like these guys are such different running backs. Like Ken Walker is your big play guy. You want to get him out in space and let him rip off the big plays. And San Francisco doesn't really do that. Like they seal the edges so well and then they've got the pressure in the middle as well that I think Zach Charbonnet is just the more natural counter to that sort of defense. Like, he is that bruising guy that can just hammer you and punch in those short touchdowns. And I think that's why we saw a lot more of him. So this is one that I am definitely paying attention to, but I'm also not panicking on. I was already pretty aggressive in my Zach Charbonnet stance in the preseason, so I didn't move him up too much. I moved Ken Walker down a few spots, but this was already one where I had these guys a little bit tighter than I think consensus did. I have long been a big fan of Zach Charbonnet. Like, he's a little bit younger than Ken Walker. He's got size on his side. He's a very good pass catcher as well. And I talked about it a lot this off season, that this wide zone run scheme that Clint Kubiak likes to run is exactly what Charbonnet thrived on in ucla. And now we see him looking very good as well. So I am very cautiously buying Kenneth Walker. And, you know, I did a Reddit AMA yesterday and a lot of people were asking about this situation and I said, like, yeah, it's scary buying Kenneth Walker, but he is still a talented guy. He's still young. This is a good offensive line and a good run blocking scheme. I think that, you know, I'm chalking a lot of this up is injury. And, and we see this often where these, like, injuries in preseason don't get reported as much as they should be. I look back to last year with Mark Andrews, like, they just kind of swept it under the rug. Yeah, preseason car accident, no big deal. And he was, like, visibly impaired for the first few weeks of the season before kind of turning into the Mark Andrews of old JSN. We heard it with his rookie season as well. A.J. brown, I think, is another perfect example. Like, they said that he was a full go. He was clearly hurt in that game against. Why am I drawing a blank? The Cowboys.
- [15:49]
Alfredo Brown
Cowboys, dude.
- [15:50]
Dave Kluge
Wow.
- [15:50]
Alfredo Brown
A.J. brown, watch that. Like, he just. He did not look like himself. He was slow in and out of breaks. Like, there was like a. There was a pity target at the end of the game there.
- [16:01]
Dave Kluge
And I think that a lot of this, you know, fear about Ken Walker can be related to the injury. You know, we. There's no reason for coaches to disclose everything. Like, what benefit is there for Seattle's coach to come out and say, like, yeah, Kenneth Walker is hurt and we're not going to be able to lean on him the way that we want to. Like, that just shows the cards to San Francisco. And there's no reason to, like, give an edge to a divisional opponent. So I think that what they did is just kind of swept it under the rug, made it sound like it wasn't quite as bad as it was. But Kenneth Walker did not look like himself. So paying close attention to this, moving Zach Charbonnet way up my rankings. But I'm not ready to panic on Ken Walker yet.
- [16:39]
Alfredo Brown
I'm a little worried. I'm a little worried. And I love Ken Walker, and this is just. I love the talent that Ken Walker has. I do not like the lingering injury because this something they talked about all off season, where they were saying, we've got a plan for him.
- [16:56]
Dave Kluge
You know, back in, like, July, they were saying that.
- [16:59]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. And so I start to wonder, is this the plan? Right. It's like, let's not give him too many touches now. But even with that, the touches simply didn't look good if they were saying, hey, we're going to give them both a 50, 50 split and both these guys are looking great. I. I'm not going to say that I am out on Ken Walker. Like, I will buy at the right price if I have him. I'm holding on to him. I'm not trying to sell low at the moment, but I am a lot more worried than I was two weeks ago. I will say this, Dave, like you said, the right thing is that going up against the 49ers defense, that is a. A much better run defense. And I think people will give them credit for. I know, I know they've had their. They've had pass rush issues, and secondary isn't always great, but that run defense is still very good. Did I get it right now? Nick Bosa.
- [17:46]
Dave Kluge
Yes.
- [17:47]
Alfredo Brown
Okay.
- [17:47]
Dave Kluge
The handsome one. Yes.
- [17:48]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. Well, I didn't. You didn't have to say all that. Nick Bosa had a really great backside track down on Ken Walker where it's like he got there so much faster than Walker could even get to the line. Like, he just doesn't look like himself.
- [18:01]
Dave Kluge
The defense, typically, there is no defensive end that's going to have more burst than Ken Walker. So, like, that's a huge red flag to me. And that's why I'm just chalking a lot of this up to, like, maybe he is hurt. And I think that, like, if there's one player, like, if we were doing a panic meter episode and we were looking at, like, consensus opinions, I think there's more panic right now about Ken Walker than anyone else. Like Nico Collins, Amanra. St. Brown, A.J. brown. I think a lot of people see the context there, but a lot of people aren't seeing the context with this Ken Walker situation. And, and, and I think like there, there aren't a lot of opportunities to buy low on really talented players after week one. I think if there's one player that you actually can buy low on right now, it is Ken Walker.
- [18:39]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, that's, that's where I think I get worried I'm going to differ with you on that is I just, I don't want to buy because to me if it was just the usage thing I'd say, you know what, Ken Walker's gonna make enough big plays where you can buy and maybe that usage goes back the other direction. The fact that it seems like he is not himself has me worried and this is, this is odd for me because like I'm normally the one to Ken Walker. He's the guy. He's the guy. He's the guy. He doesn't, he doesn't look like the guy right now. Like he doesn't look like him. But it's just the injury seems like it's really zap sapping all that like all that explosiveness away. Dave, next one on here. Jackson, Smith, Najigba stayed in Seattle.
- [19:17]
Dave Kluge
I like it.
- [19:18]
Alfredo Brown
We're staying Seattle.
- [19:19]
Dave Kluge
Yeah.
- [19:20]
Alfredo Brown
Oh just the offense is going to run through it. It's 100. There's no one else that this, this offense is going through.
- [19:28]
Dave Kluge
Yeah and no surprise here like we, we set this like I don't want to, you know, tooted our horn a little bit at the top of the episode but I'll do it again here. Like you know we, we had some hits and we had some misses and there's some informations that we are like some situations we still need more information on but this is one where like after one game I am ready to just say like we, we were on this and I, I feel pretty good about this one. A 59 target share, like it's ridiculous. It's not going to last over the course of a full season. But 59 of the team targets in his first game and you know he was just running all of the routes that we wanted to see. When we talk about Clint Kubiak offenses like the whole point of this offense is to have the receiver that they're going to use in pre snap motion so they can get and exploit these matchups where they can make big plays. And you know I talked about it right before the season started when we were doing Our My Guys episode, I talked about Justin Jefferson having his big breakout year in year two with Clint Kubiak and then Brandon Ayuk having his career best season with Clint Kubiak last year in New Orleans. Whether it was Chris Alave, Rashid Shahid or Marquez Valda Scantling, these guys were just consistently breaking defenses with big plays and that's exactly what we saw from Jackson Smith Najigba. So he's getting some of those easy plays. Like where they had one where they like he ran a route out of the backfield and just caught the ball in the flat and was able to pick up some yards after the catch. He also had the deep crossers, he had the vertical routes. He had everything that we want to see from a Clint Kubiak offense. I don't think it's like crazy or hyperbolic to say that JSN could have like a 15 to 1700 yard season in this offense. Like he is going to be the primary weapon and they are going to use him in creative ways to get the ball to him deep downfield where he can make plays after the catch. I mean I was just like salivating going back and watching that game.
- [21:07]
Alfredo Brown
I just, I love it, man. I really do. I really love this. There's no one else on this team that's going to be able to step in and take targets away from Jackson, Smith and Jigba. And Sam Darnold kind of proved like he can run this offense. Is he going to be great at it? Probably not. Hey, Sam Darnold, like that's. We're not surprised by that. But can he get the ball to his best receiver over and over? Absolutely. Absolutely. And I don't think this was just a, a week one thing. I think this is the game plan every single week.
- [21:38]
Dave Kluge
Dave Cooper cup looked like dust too. I hate.
- [21:41]
Alfredo Brown
Oh, he can't get open man. He can't.
- [21:43]
Dave Kluge
Yeah. Led the team in routes run and still only pulled three targets. And like just. Yeah, he looks slow, like he couldn't get open. Tori Horton didn't have a single target in this game which, which, which hurts my heart. Hopefully we'll see that change. But yeah, like looking at it right now, like over, under for the season. 35 target share for JSN. Are you taking the overrunner on that?
- [22:05]
Alfredo Brown
Say that again. 35 target share.
- [22:07]
Dave Kluge
That's a very high target.
- [22:08]
Alfredo Brown
Oh yeah, I'm going under. I'm going under. Like that's, that's ridiculous. But him still being in that.
- [22:13]
Dave Kluge
You're gonna take the over dude, like there's nobody else here and this is a team that probably isn't going to be playing from ahead much. I think that like we could be looking at an offense where Sam Donald has to throw the ball 550 times and there aren't other options there. Like they are just going to be hyper targeting J week in and week out. Like I've got him right now. I moved him ahead of Nico Collins in my rest of season rankings. I've got JSN as my wide receiver 6 for the rest of the year.
- [22:40]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I think he's right there as like a potential top five wide receiver. I mean is, is there, is there much difference between him and Malik neighbors right now?
- [22:50]
Dave Kluge
That's exactly who I've got him next to and I've got them in the same tier at wide receiver five and wide receiver six and even Drake London. Like I'll throw all three of those guys kind of in the same tier. Guys that like aren't on great teams that don't have a lot of good target competition. Like it might not be pretty but we're looking at you know, 180 plus targets for all of these guys this year.
- [23:11]
Alfredo Brown
The big thing that I notice here is looking at NFL next gen stats. Jackson Smith a Jigba was absolutely crushing against zone coverage and that's something that most NFL defenses play and they play it quite often. And if, I mean I'd be curious to see what happens if a team tries to switch to man.
- [23:32]
Dave Kluge
But oh, even though shout out Matt Harmon reception perception like he shows that like he's got one of the best rates of winning against man coverage.
- [23:40]
Alfredo Brown
And what I was going to say is that with Clint Kubiak in this offense is that his specialty is the pre snap motion and getting Jackson Jigba all over that field. So you put him in man, all you're going to be doing is just getting him on the run and beating his man in different ways. So like I'm not worried about JSN at all. I'm really excited about what this means for his future here.
- [23:58]
Dave Kluge
Wheels up.
- [23:59]
Alfredo Brown
Wheels all the way up. All right Dave, next guy I got on here. I gotta ask this question because you and I were not very high on Bucky Irving going into the season and I don't want to make this thing where we go. Ah yes, confirming the priors. Right. Because that's not it. Like let's add the context. But I think it's, it's not just that Bucky Irving didn't look Great here in week one, but it's that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run offense looked really bland. Like they were chicken and rice, no salt. They were raisins in the potato salad.
- [24:36]
Dave Kluge
Like they were talking about all my favorite foods right here, man. Get me excited.
- [24:41]
Alfredo Brown
Dave, Dave, come on, man.
- [24:45]
Dave Kluge
Raisins? Are you kidding? I love me some raisins. All right, let's keep going.
- [24:49]
Alfredo Brown
Potato salad there.
- [24:51]
Dave Kluge
I'll put raisins on anything.
- [24:52]
Alfredo Brown
Dave, you're Caucasians showing, but yeah, man. Dude, this just. It didn't look great. It did not look great. And I know they lose Liam Cohen to the Jacksonville Jaguars and we go back to last year. What Bucky Irving did so well is he was crushing on counter plays and pool plays. And by that, when I say pool, I mean that's when the guards are coming around to lead block for him or any offensive line in for that matter. And what. What Bucky Irving is so good at is his patience and letting blocks develop. And then he's got the speed to make a defender miss and be able to make those cuts upfield. And that's. He's pretty similar to Jakori Crosby merit in that aspect in that he can make guys miss in the outside and hit that lane on the edge and he. He can be gone. The problem is we weren't seeing a lot of that here. And the runs were very bland. It was. A lot of. It was like a. A kid who just learned how to play Madden for the first time and just kept hitting HB slam like, just kept straight up the middle and it was not working very well. You see the big difference for him when I turn on the film between his inside runs versus the one outside run where they have the offensive lineman pulling for him. Totally different concepts for him. He's averaging less than 3 yards per carry, 14 attempts, 37 yards. He gets saved by a receiving touchdown. But Dave, I. I can't lie. If I drafted Bucky Irving, I'd be a little nervous. And I. I don't want to put panic out there and try to overreact to week one, but. But I'd be nervous.
- [26:21]
Dave Kluge
So this is a guy that I had a very hard fate on this preseason. I did move him up in my rankings a bit, and I think a lot of people are moving him down in their rankings. I had such a hard fade on him that I moved him up a little bit. So I think, like now, you know, consensus me, we have kind of met in the middle. I was probably too low on him. Consensus is probably too High. And now I think it's kind of just right, you know, not having Tristan Worfs out there makes a big difference. Like, this is not the same offensive line without Tristan Worfs. That being said, Bucky or Irving was very much so a workhorse. And like my fade on Bucky Irving, there was a lot that went into it. One, expecting overall regression from Tampa Bay, which, you know that when you look at it last year, like Baker Mayfield was fantastic, but career highs across the board, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, success rate. I mean, when you see a quarterback that's been in the league for that long and he has this big outlier season in every single metric, you expect some sort of aggression the next year, especially losing Liam Cohen. We talked about this a little bit, but like we talked about it pre show, we always hear like, well, this, this offensive coordinator was promoted from within, so nothing's going to change. But it doesn't always work out that way. And I think Liam Cohen had like a deep understanding of the offensive philosophy that they were running in Tampa Bay. And now Grizzard is trying to kind of do the same thing, but it just isn't working because he doesn't have that same philosophical understanding. So on one hand, like, yeah, the offense didn't look great, but they still won the game. And Bucky Irving was very much so a workhorse. He saw 18 of the 24 running back touches, you know, just a small dose dose of Rashad White and Sean Tucker. So my fear was that we would see this committee approach, which last year, even when Bucky Irving was playing really, really well, he was still split in the backfield with Rashad White. I wonder if maybe going back to that, like getting Rashad White more involved can keep Bucky fresh so he can hit those big plays that we saw last year. Because I don't know if this is the role that I want to see him in where he' hitting 18 touches per game and just slamming between the tackles and picking up one or two yards at a time, that's not a good role for him. I think having Rashad White, you know, out there to wear defenses down a little bit, using a little dose of Sean Tucker, what they had last year worked really, really well. And I don't like this change to them kind of leaning on a workhorse back, especially when they don't have the offensive line to help him run free.
- [28:37]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, a lot of it too can be. It can be fixed conceptually if the offense just changes, but that's just typically not something that we see happen all that often where offensive coordinators go, man, we were playing all off season for this one thing. It didn't work really well in week one. Let's change it. Typically, if you're a bad offensive coordinator, you're just a bad offensive coordinator. I'm not going to try to throw out the baby with the bathwater after one week here, but look. And Dave, five inside the tackle runs, nine outside of the tackle runs, and so much worse outside of the tackles. And that's where Bucky Irving thriving.
- [29:14]
Dave Kluge
Yeah.
- [29:14]
Alfredo Brown
Yes. And it was so much worse. A negative seven rushing yards over expectation outside of the tackles. And so much of that came down to play design and not being able to set him up on counters where there's a little bit more set up on the blocks where he. Or even a pooling play. Like, there's just so much to it where I just, I look at the offense and I say, yikes. Like, this could actually be bad if Baker Mayfield's not pulling them out of the fire every. Every week here. Mecha Buka by like two touchdowns. It's awesome.
- [29:40]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, look great. I'll also say, like, the outside of the tackle stuff doesn't work as well when you don't have Tristan Wurfs out there sealing that edge. And like, a lot of those outside of the tackle runs that they designed, like, he was getting hit in the backfield. So I went through and I looked at it like, because. Because I did see the overall production and, you know, felt a little bit smug at first, where I was like, haha. Like, I didn't think Bucky Irving was going to be that good this year. And then I went back and I watch it, and I was just like, he doesn't have anywhere to run. Like, on almost every single one of his touches, he was getting a hand on him in the backfield. Like, his best play of the game got called on offensive holding because that was the only way that they were able to open up a hole for him. So definitely not quite panicking yet. Do we have a clear timetable on win? Tristan Wurfs is coming back. I know they said he'd missed the early part of the season. I don't know if that means one or two weeks or if that means, you know, the first half of the season. But, you know, I. I do have hope that Tristan Wurfs, when he comes back and can make this whole offense a little bit better. But yeah, right now, you know, we're seeing the regression hit and we're seeing what this team can look like without Liam Cohen. And similarly, you know, we talked about it a little bit the, with the Lions too. Like, I, I think we need to start putting a little bit more weight into some of these teams losing. They're very, very good high profile offensive coordinators.
- [30:54]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. I mean, typically the band aid, when your offensive line isn't playing well is get a little bit more of the zone stuff going because you can, you can sort of, you know, remove the room for error there because you've got a little bit more space for your running back. And they're, they're sticking with their gap runs like, and they're just saying, you know what? We have no Tristan Worfs, but we're going to make this work with a rookie who, if I remember correctly, their rookie center they drafted is actually out at left tackle right now. Graham Barton. He's got, he's got versatility to play all over the offensive line, which was like one of the big reasons that people liked him coming out of Duke. I'll double check that as we're talking about the next thing. But yeah, that's just. I know that was one of the main complaints from Bucks fans was that, well, don't you know, our offensive line is being reshuffled. Yeah, both of these things can be true. Play design can be bad, and the offensive line is just not where it needs to be, which is just overall bad for Bucky Irving.
- [31:44]
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And I know Matt Batanti, our offensive line specialist here at football guys, he does talk about how important continuity is and that, like, the longer these guys can play together, the more cohesion there is. So when you've got a lot of new faces and you're missing your old studs on the offensive line and guys are playing out of position, that just makes for a disaster. But this is something that I have a little bit of faith in, that maybe we can see the Bucs get right over the next few weeks.
- [32:07]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. Graham Barton playing at left tackle right now in place of Tristan Wurfs. So it's tough. He's a versatile and really good offensive line, but that's tough to do in the NFL, especially in your first game here. All right, let's go to the, the next group of players here, which is these rookie running backs, Ashton Jinty and Omari and Hampton. These were guys that were first, second, third round picks for Hampton. Jinty was almost always a first round pick, sometimes slid into the second. But Dave, 19 carries, 38 yards, Day gets saved with a touchdown. Is there anything here that you're worried about, or is this just week one jitters and get the uglies out after week one here?
- [32:48]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I'm shocked to see people panicking on either of these players. Like, to me, they both looked like very talented running backs in their first ever NFL starts. Like, there were some highs, there were some lows. There were times where you're just like, oh, wow, that's why that guy was a first round pick in the NFL draft. Then there are other times where you're like, oh, yeah, that guy's a rookie. Like, I. I saw people legitimately saying that, like, Omarion Hampton's gonna lose work because he went out of bounds when he should have slid. And, like, no, that that's not gonna happen. They're gonna look at that in the film room and say, hey, don't do that again. And he probably won't make that mistake again. Like, this is what happens with young players who are new to the NFL. So I'm not panicking whatsoever. I mean, Hampton saw 17 of 19 backfield touches for the Chargers. Ginty saw 22 of 25 running back touches for the Raiders. That is elite usage. Like, there are not many guys in today's NFL that are seeing 90% of the backfield touches. And we saw that immediately right out the gate in week one. Now, I think Najee Harris, as he gets calloused up and conditioned and ready for NFL play, I think that we could see him grow his workload a little bit. But still, Omarion Hampton looked fantastic. This entire Chargers team looked fantastic. So I think that, like, when you start looking at the important factors that we care about for running backs, obviously, talent. We know both of these guys have talent. We want good offensive environments. I think the Chargers have a better offensive environment than the Raiders. But then when we look at, you know, the. The potential workload split, even if Hampton is ceding some work to Najee Harry, Najee Harris, I think that the Chargers offense is just good enough to offset that. So I'm looking at both of these guys pretty close in my rankings. I bumped Hampton up a couple of spots, and I bumped Jinty down a couple of spots. And I'm almost wondering now, like, looking back if these guys should have been drafted a little bit closer to where they are. But either way, I think the volume' to be there. Jensey might not, in this offense have a. A top three ceiling that we had hoped for, but he's got enough volume that if this maintains for the entire course of the year, it's Almost impossible to imagine Jinsey not finishing as a top 12 running back.
- [34:50]
Alfredo Brown
You know, one thing I just want to remind people of is that the Patriots run defense is actually quite good. Like that's something that they are good at year in and year out.
- [34:57]
Dave Kluge
Mike still are the Chiefs, right?
- [34:59]
Alfredo Brown
Like, these are good run defenses that these rookies went up against for the very first time. Like, I. I think it's really that simple. What I love is the amount of volume that each of these guys got. I would not be panicking over them. What a. Dave. A lot of what I saw was just guys that. They looked like they were in their first NFL game. They looked like they were taking a lot of time to mentally process where things were. There was a specific moment on one of the outside runs that Amari and Hampton had where I think he was almost surprised that the defensive linemen were able to get to the edge equally as fast as him. Where he was thinking, it's a lot like college where I can just, you know, maybe coast a little bit. Like there's times Ash and Ginty did not look as fast as he normally does. I'm right handed. Did not look as fast as he normally does. Neither guy was very creative in running the football. They almost looked like they just didn't want to mess up the assignment. Hit the hole where you're supposed to go, get to that run lane and that. That's it. I think that as they get more comfortable, we're going to see them, you know, loosen up a little bit more as they're running the football.
- [36:05]
Dave Kluge
And. And the last thing I'll say is Hampton, we talked about his kind of underrated abilities as a pass catcher. It's not something that we saw a ton of at unc and he only had two targets in this game, but looked like a very natural pass catcher and ran a bunch of routes as well. So it's so tough because like, you want to look historically at what Greg Roman has done with his offenses and we don't typically see the running backs getting targeted a lot in these offenses, but. But it feels like the personnel that Greg Roman is dealing with now is so different than any personnel he has ever had. I mean, we saw a huge pass rate over expectation in this game, which is not a tenant of a Greg Roman offense. We see running backs running a lot of routes, which we also don't typically see in a Greg Roman offense. So I think a lot of the talk about split backfields and no targets in this offense, we can kind of throw that out the window because Justin Herbert, the receivers they have here, it's just such a, A different team and roster that Greg Roman has ever had to work with before. But there was one place specifically where Omarion Hampton just like a quick little pass to him, but like he was able to catch the ball, bring it into his body and like not break stride and immediately turn it up field. I think if he just gets that, you know, two, three, four targets per game on top of the workhorse role as a rusher. I mean, the ceiling for Omarion Hampton is top five, top eight. Like, he looked really good and this Chargers offense as a whole looked really good as well.
- [37:23]
Alfredo Brown
Well, yeah, people are going to have to get used to Greg Roman actually passing the ball. Like, I know there, we've, there's, there's the notion that the Greg Roman offense is going to strictly run and guys, that's with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback and that was with Lamar Jackson at quarterback early career.
- [37:41]
Dave Kluge
Lamar Jackson, right.
- [37:43]
Alfredo Brown
And that's like, it's not that Justin Herbert can't run the ball, but he is a very, very good passer and like that's a whole another conversation for another show as to how good he is at quarterback. But this team is going to be passing the ball more. This offense is going to be in a place where they can actually score. So touchdowns are also going to be there for Amarian Hampton.
- [38:02]
Dave Kluge
And I don't want to put you on the spot, but like, you know, I can't think of every wide receiver trio in the entire NFL off the top of your head. But Chargers might have the best wide receiver trio in the league. Like lad McConkey, his ability to move all over the formation, win on every single level, make plays after the catch. Keenan Allen, like, he is just like one step off the line of scrimmage and he's open. And then Quentin Johnston as a. A tertiary piece who can make the big plays and lean on his size and speed. I mean, this is just like a perfect wide receiver trio. It would be foolish to think that they're not going to lean on the pass a little bit more with these guys.
- [38:36]
Alfredo Brown
Philadelphia Eagles, I would say better wide receiver room type A Buccaneers, better wide receiver room. There's. Yeah, I'm not.
- [38:43]
Dave Kluge
If Godwin's healthy.
- [38:45]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, yeah. Like, I'm just. It was a good.
- [38:49]
Dave Kluge
I'm going three deep here. I, I don't think that it's the best duo, but once you look at the three, like, I think Quentin Johnson is much than Johan Dotson. And you know, of course, like, I like the duo in Cincinnati better, but looking at Quentin Johnson as opposed to Andre Joseph Ash as the third guy and maybe not even the best, it's just like they. They work so well off of each other. Like, what Lad can do, what Keenan can do and what Quentin Johnston can do, like, they are just perfect complementary pieces for a wide receiver room.
- [39:17]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, that's. It's gonna be another conversation for another show.
- [39:21]
Dave Kluge
Go.
- [39:21]
Alfredo Brown
But let's. Let's go into the next player here that we want to talk about. Tyler Warren. Man, looking every bit of a top five fantasy tight end. Dave. This was a really good game for him. I was unfortunately watching this game as a Dolphins fan, which they've released me from my pain because I just know they're going to be bad this year and I don't really have to pay attention to the games now. But Tyler warned. Three targets on the opening drive of the game. Game six targets in the first half. The offense runs through Tyler Warren. He ends up with nine targets on this game, a game that they were leading virtually the entire time. Like, it was almost always out of reach, with no sense of being uncomfortable. A tight end who could draw targets this way and get so many targets, by the way, off motion as well. He got three touches off motion, which were big for him. I don't know that there's going to be a. A defense that says, hey, we just need to key in on Tyler Warren and that's it. We're going to stop this offense. They're going to have to worry about Josh Downs over the middle. They're going to have to worry about Michael Pittman on the outside. They're going to have to worry about Daniel Jones feet and his ability to rush Jonathan Taylor. There's so much here where I don't think defenses can just key in on Tyler Warren and say, okay, good, we've stopped the Colts. Tyler Warren will be the straw that stirs the drink. But I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon.
- [40:39]
Dave Kluge
Soon. Yeah, he. He's so good. I don't even think we need to spend too much time on this one. Like, if you just go watch his touches, he looks like a budding superstar. I mean, like, yeah, we could chalk some of this up to, like, a soft Miami defense. Sure. But, like, he is just so good, his usage. I think saying he's a top five tight end might even be underselling it. Like with Kittle being on ir, expected to miss the next, you know, four to five weeks. I think putting Tyler Warren in the top three discussion isn't that crazy. Like, it would not shock me one bit if when this season is over, you know, we're looking at our dynasty rankings and it's just Bowers, McBride and Tyler Warren in a tier of their own. He is so physical. Like, the way that he plays, like, he is just violent. He's got big size. He can run through guys. We heard a lot in camp about his hands, and there are a handful of catches that he made through traffic, extending his body like just bear traps for hands. Catches the ball through contact, runs through defenders, makes plays after the catch. Just a catch radius the size of a garage door. I mean, like, like everything we're saying about Tyler Warren is what we were saying about Brock Bowers last year. Like, this is a guy who can do it all. Line up all over the formation, creates mismatches. Focal point of the offense. Tyler Warren right now, like, buy high on Tyler Warren. If there is anybody thinking, like, you're not buying low on him, obviously, but like, he's a guy right now, like, if I've got Mark Andrews, if I've got TJ Hawkinson, if I've got one of these veterans that were getting drafted ahead of Tyler Warren, I will pivot right now. And I did that last night. I sent out trade offers in the leagues that I have, T.J. hawkinson, the leagues that I have, Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews. I offered up trades for Tyler Warren in every single one of those leagues. Every one of those leagues. Last night.
- [42:18]
Alfredo Brown
Were any of them successful?
- [42:20]
Dave Kluge
No.
- [42:23]
Alfredo Brown
Okay.
- [42:23]
Dave Kluge
But hey, shoot or shoot.
- [42:27]
Alfredo Brown
What I. What I like most about, like the way Tyler Warren is winning is that he's winning both downfield, but then he's also. He's getting a lot of these catches close to the line of scrimmage, off motion where he's coming through through, and like he even took a. A carry out of the backfield as well. David's the yards after catch for him where nearly half of his yards in this game came after the catch. Like, this is something we knew Tyler Warren could do coming out of Penn State. And this is what the best tight ends in fantasy football do. Like, that's where Trey McBride has been so good, where George Kittle has been so good, Brock Bowers so good. It's why you get worried about some of the other guys like Dallas Goddard and Dalton Kincaid, who they catch and sort of just fall down.
- [43:08]
Dave Kluge
Right.
- [43:09]
Alfredo Brown
Tyler Warren has that ability here to like, I think I almost wonder if saying Top five is underselling it. Like, could he pull exactly what I said?
- [43:17]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, yeah.
- [43:18]
Alfredo Brown
Like, could he be tight in one? Like, it's. It's. I don't want to get too hyperbolic here, but it's all very, very possible.
- [43:25]
Dave Kluge
I've got him right now in my rest of season rankings. And. And I did these before Tyler or George Kittle was put on ir. So I have George Kittle ahead at tight end three. I've got Tyler Warren at tight end four. But, like, next week with George Kittle being on ir, which I was hoping he'd miss, you know, a couple of games. When I published this article, I definitely have Tyler Warren ahead of George Kittle at this point. He's my rest of season tight end three. Like, I've seen enough. I am buying in.
- [43:48]
Alfredo Brown
I'm worried about George Kittle, by the way. They've said it could be upwards of five, six weeks more. Yeah, Like, I'm. I'm very scared.
- [43:56]
Dave Kluge
Real quick, while we're talking about Tyler Warren, we don't have to go off on too much of a tangent here, but. But Dolphins are just completely cooked, right? Like, yeah, I just, you know.
- [44:06]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, yeah, they're cooked. It's over. Like, I. I watched that game back.
- [44:10]
Dave Kluge
It's bad if they lose to the jets this week. Does Mike McDaniel have a job in week three? No, I don't think so either.
- [44:17]
Alfredo Brown
Like, I don't think you can. You can go out there, have such an embarrassing week one and then lose again. And did you see his response? And it was press conference. Well, it can't get much worse.
- [44:31]
Dave Kluge
Famous last words before it gets worse.
- [44:33]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. Like, I love. Someone posted that with, like, the. The meme of, what are you gonna do, stab me? Quote, man who got stabbed. Like, yes, Mike McDaniels. Yes. It can get worse, dude. Yeah. Honestly, I think he gets fired within the first three weeks. I think Anthony Weaver, the defensive coordinator, ends up taking over and they're gonna have that same Dan Campbell effect where when he took over as the interim head coach, the team got tougher and they were scrappy and they were winning games. That could happen. But I'm more worried about tua, man. Like, the Dolphins Twitter and Dolphins Reddit has lost it. Like, they are ready to kill it with fire. They are. They're ready to burn it all down, get a new logo, get a new stadium, get a new quarterback, get a new everything. Like, they're done.
- [45:14]
Dave Kluge
We don't have to spend too much more time. Yeah. I just wanted to see if we were on the same page here.
- [45:18]
Alfredo Brown
All right, Dave. Dave, I'm that The pages are glued together, sir. Like, I've been on that page.
- [45:24]
Dave Kluge
This team is cooked. Jeff Blaylock reached out to me after Monday night after the Bears game, and he's like, hey, dude, how are you doing after that game? And I was like, huh? I'm dead inside. I feel nothing when they win. I feel good about it. But, like, I have completely dissociated from any ill feelings about the Bears. Like, I, I, I am just a shell of a human when it comes to them doing bad things. And I, I think you're kind of there with the Dolphins at point this, at this point.
- [45:47]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, dude. Like, if anything, I'm happy they were so bad in week one, doing this charade through the rest of the season. All right, let's, let's go to the next one on here. Marvin Harrison Jr. Looking like a breakout. It wasn't an incredible day, right? But it's five catches on six targets for a touchdown. And this was against the Saints, who were surprisingly feisty in here. But Dave, I think it, for me, it's the way that Marvin Harris Jr. Was getting targeted and it was getting these passes underneath. It was winning on slants. He still had one of the deep ball targets, but he won on the contested catch. And granted, I think that changes the complexion of the day, but the fact that they are getting in close to the goal line, they're saying, you know what? Let's hit Marvin Harrison Jr. Underneath for a pass. That gets my spirits up, man. Like, it looks very much like Marvin Harrison Jr. Year was absolutely worth the pick this season.
- [46:43]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I don't have too much to add there. I mean, this is kind of confirming what we saw in the preseason where we were like, you know, and that's what I wrote in my notes here on Marvin Harrison. I'm like, people are going to get excited about that big contested go route to start the game, and they should, because that's what Marvin Harrison can do, and that's what he did in college and that's what he did last year. But I'm more excited about the 1 yard slant for a touchdown. I'm more excited about the little dig route that he just caught across the middle of the field for 12 yards. Like, that's what we didn't see in Marvin Harrison's bag last year. And it's not that he can't do it. I mean, any NFL wide receiver can make these plays, but those layups, those Easy touches where they're just getting him the ball across the middle of the field, getting him the slants near the end zone. That's the difference between what he was last year where he was a boomer bus wide receiver three and elevating him to being this target hog that can be a wide receiver one. So, yeah, like, the, the highlights are fantastic, but it's really like the nerdy stuff that I get most excited about. Like those short little in breaking routes. Like, give me five or six of those a game.
- [47:42]
Alfredo Brown
Game.
- [47:42]
Dave Kluge
And sky's the limit for Marvin Harrison.
- [47:45]
Alfredo Brown
Really, really make sure that you enunciate the G when you say the little dig route. Just wanted to throw that out there. Yeah, we do a double take. All right, next up on here, Dave, we got a trio of quarterbacks. We're going to talk about each of them sort of individually, but let's, let's. I'm gonna throw it to you first here on Caleb Williams, man, because I know you got some thoughts here. It seems like everyone is either the sky is falling, he's terrible, or like, it's okay, he was better than last year. He fixed up a lot of the sack stuff, but it just sort of still seems like square peg, round hole for this, this offense and this quarterback.
- [48:25]
Dave Kluge
I'm going to lean towards the latter here, and maybe I am a Caleb Williams apologist, but it's so funny to me, like, the narrative going into this game, like, I heard every Chicago Bears fan saying it, like, hey, a first start in a new offense against a really tough defense. Like, let's keep expectations low. Like, whatever happens, happens. We just want to see some development here. What does he do? He comes out and completes his first 10 attempts, like, making some unbelievable throws, looking really, really good. And that was enough for like just a little bit of enthusiasm. Like, oh, my goodness, the Bears, who are underdogs, might actually win this game. And then it fell apart in the second half. And now you're going to laugh at this, Alfredo, but, like, they're. There are literally Bears fans out there calling for Tyson Ben to start.
- [49:07]
Alfredo Brown
Oh, I've seen it. It's hilarious, dude.
- [49:10]
Dave Kluge
Week one is. Is tough. It's really, really, really tough. And like, you know, he made some terrible throws. Like he missed Cole Comet in the flat on a really, really easy route. That was frustrating. He had that in breaking route to DJ Moore that he threw directly at a linebacker's chest. That is terrible. And then he had another one where he threw a ball that sailed over the top of Colchomet on another in breaking deep route. Those three passes were awful. But when you look at the entire game, for the most part, like, he was making good throws and he was doing things that we don't see a lot of quarterbacks do in Chicago, like, he was getting through his progressions and he was throwing the ball to the open guys. So, yeah, like three really, really, really bad throws on the day. And it's just so weird to me that, like, that is the narrative coming out of. And it's not weird to me because it's the Chicago media and it's. People hate Caleb Williams. Like, I.
- [50:00]
Alfredo Brown
It's not even just Chicago. Like, it's general sports media. Like, everything be hyperbolic. Every conversation now has been, if you're.
- [50:07]
Dave Kluge
Restarting the team, who are you picking?
- [50:09]
Alfredo Brown
Caleb Williams or J.J. mcCarthy? And it's just like, guys, for about three quarters, J.J. mcCarthy looked like the worst starting quarterback in the league. But we're going to play the result like there was. So it was the most duck season wabbit season game I have ever watched where we were all in on Caleb Williams, the Bears and, and Ben Johnson, Johnson and out on. On Kevin O' Connell and JJ McCarthy. And then we just flipped that script.
- [50:36]
Dave Kluge
Yeah. In half a game. Like, we. It's crazy how people overreact. And like, I'm hesitant to say this because I don't want this to, like, sound wrong, but there's just like, so much more to Caleb Williams than just who he is as a football player. Like, there are a lot of people out there that hate Caleb Williams for crying on his mom's shoulder and for painting his nails and for, you know, wearing a dress in a photo shoot and all these sorts of things. And that really bleeds into the Caleb Williams conversation and discourse a lot more than we like to imagine. I. I had one play that I, that I kind of added context to. Warren Sharp shared a play that was thrown to DJ Moore where, you know.
- [51:13]
Alfredo Brown
I knew you were going to talk about it. I've seen you talk about nothing else on Twitter the last 48 hours.
- [51:19]
Dave Kluge
Because I am getting absolutely shredded for this take. And like, now I see it.
- [51:22]
Alfredo Brown
Bring it over the pod.
- [51:24]
Dave Kluge
Yeah. So, I mean, film analysts like Kurt Warner came out and said that that was a good throw. And like, Kurt Warner, like, I'm going to defer to a Super bowl winning champ over Caleb Williams. Hater4679. That's in my replies right now. And like, people are really, really upset about this. But, like, he had three really bad throws, but he had one throw that I thought was, you know, an okay throw. They're. They're down two scores with two minutes left, and he throws a ball into the deep pylon where only DJ Moore can make a play on this. But 90% of the replies that I've gotten over the last 24 hours have nothing to do with that throw. It's about Caleb crying on his mom's shoulder, Caleb painting his nails, wearing a dress, all these sorts of things. So I feel like it's just, like, impossible to have a rational conversation about Caleb Williams without all of this extra stuff bleeding into the discourse. And it's just nauseating. Like, this happens every year, week one. Like, people focus on a primetime island game and blow it out of proportion. And that's what happened here. But. But I went back and I watched the entire game after watching it live, and. And I thought he played fine. And there's a lot of people out there that know way more about football than I ever will that are also saying Caleb Williams played a pretty good game.
- [52:30]
Alfredo Brown
He did. Like, he did. Like, I'm. I'm gonna say, like, until we got to the moment where it was just incompletion after incompletion. It was a good game. And there were so many moments. There were. Early in the game. I'm saying Caleb is so much faster than I really realized. Like, I knew he had some rushing ability to him, but, yeah, like, he had a lot of the Kyler Murray to him where, like, he was getting out of that pocket quick and just looked fast getting out to the side there. And there was that one throw, whereas he's rolling to his right and hits. I believe it was Roma dun or DJ Moore on the sideline there with, I mean, like, one that went, like.
- [53:04]
Dave Kluge
Up and over a defender and, like, just a perfectly placed ball. Is that the one you're talking about?
- [53:07]
Alfredo Brown
It was a rope, man. It was just, like, right there on the sideline as Caleb's running to his right. Like, there are throws that he makes where it's like. Like, that's a top five NFL quarterback throw. Then there are obvious misses that he'll have, and I just think a lot of it is him settling into this offense, man. Like, I don't think we need to overreact to this. On the other side of this, though, Bo Nicks. I think we do need to react to this and react accordingly. I think there is a bit of the sophomore slump at play here last year and throughout the off season. All that was talked about is that Bo Nix was not throwing the ball deep and he had to win in very, let's call it Mickey Mouse ways where everything had to be by the line of scrimmage. Well, guess what? He did it again this week. And when teams know how to beat your quarterback and how to beat your offense, they will do it. He only completed three passes beyond 10 air yards day. Like more than a third of his completions were behind the line of scrimmage.
- [54:07]
Dave Kluge
Scrimmage.
- [54:07]
Alfredo Brown
80% of his completions were within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. 80% of his completions Were within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Literally any NFL quarterback can do that. So what Bo Nix is giving you is not something special. And when teams can see that and when teams can defend that easily, you're not going to win many games. He was also really bad under pressure as well. He only got two out of seven passes under pressure. Pressure completed for just eight yards. So you bring pressure for a guy who basically is never making any reads more than 10 yards downfield. I think you know how to beat him.
- [54:44]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I'm looking at his pass chart right now, alfredo. I see one, it's terrible. Two, three, four, five, six. Seven passes beyond 15 yards, two interceptions, four incompletions. And then he had the one touchdown. I mean, like, not good, not.
- [55:01]
Alfredo Brown
And that was a Cortland Sutton win, by the way, on that. Like, that was not, that was just.
- [55:05]
Dave Kluge
A keep it up and let Sutton make a play on the ball. Yeah, right. And, and what we saw last year was like the last few games of the season, they did kind of unlock that deep ball where we saw Marvin Mims come into life. And it's like, okay, Bo Nicks can throw the deep ball. And then they just like took it off his plate this year. He struggled with it. And this was one that I think you and I were also pretty privy to. Like we were both pretty far below consensus on Bonix in our draft rankings and talked about a lot. You know, touchdowns are really fluky and really hard to predict. And last year Bonix had a very good touchdown rate, rushed for a bunch of touchdowns as well. And unless you think Bo Nix is a Lamar Jackson or a Josh Allen type of talent, you should have baked in some regression into this year. And now that regression, I fear is going to hit. I, I think he's a fine player. I think that he is a starting NFL quarterback back, but I, I, I, I don't see him in this elite tier that A lot of people are. And I think that the touchdown rate and the rushing and the rushing touchdowns kind of clouded the judgment of a lot of fantasy drafters this year. I, I, I was pretty low on him in my draft rankings and still bumped him down even more after this week one showing. It just was not a good showing. And that was, you know, out here in Denver when everyone else was lucky enough to watch the Lions and Packers game live. I was four, forced to watch the Broncos game and, like, just puking in my mouth for half that game. I'm like, this is just a terrible, terrible showing.
- [56:30]
Alfredo Brown
Okay, that's pretty gross, man. I'm looking for right now someone in the flex leagues that's run by Jake Seeley dropped Bo Nick. Yeah. Chris Towers dropped Bo Nix already.
- [56:43]
Dave Kluge
I recommended it on Twitter so he.
- [56:45]
Alfredo Brown
Could pick up Kenneth Gainwell.
- [56:46]
Dave Kluge
Oh, it's for Gainwell. Wow. I, I said pick him up for Fields or. I said drop Bo Nixon for Justin Fields or Justin Herbert if they're available. But yeah, I mean, like, and that's the thing is, like, I am very quick to just change on my quarterbacks now. I think if you go out and you drafted a Patrick Mahomes or a Joe Burrow, they didn't look good in week one. You're not dropping them because those guys are good. You know, you want to hold on to them and hope that they can see it through. But I look at all of these other guys. Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams. I'm not holding on to them for, for any reason. And I'm not saying that you should drop all these guys. That's not what I'm saying at all. But I'm saying that, like, those guys, to me, are all streaming quarterbacks, and I am fine kind of playing the matchups and picking up Mike Pennix or Daniel Jones or Aaron Rodgers or whoever it is that has, like, a good matchup on a weekly basis, and I think a lot of people are going to say, well, I drafted Bo Nix in round eight, so I need to see this through. No, no. Like, if you drafted Bo Nix and Justin Fields or Justin Herbert or Daniel Jones is available on your waiver wireless there, this is me giving you the green light. Like, drop Bo Nicks and move on. It's fine. Like, there, there are a lot of Bonixes out there in fantasy. Don't feel like you need to, like, hold on to them and wait for things to turn around. And we talked about Bonix briefly on the Dynasty show yesterday. And Jeff Bell mentioned it, but this is something Matt Waldman says all the time, is that, like, you. You can't really put too much weight in a quarterback's first season because that first season defenses play them really vanilla, and then after they get a full season of tape, then they can see what their weaknesses are and exploit those. And that's why we see these sophomore all the time. Like, we saw it with C.J. stroud, and that was more than a sophomore slump. That's looking like it's a junior year slump now, too. And. And a lot of what we saw from Bo Nicks last year did feel a little bit fraudulent, and now it's bleeding over into a second year and. And I don't know if he's going to bounce back.
- [58:35]
Alfredo Brown
Dave, we got some news in here that was not on the show sheet, but it just happened. And I kind of want to talk about this here. The Miami Dolphins, who I know we already pooped on them a little bit before, they've got some injuries along this offensive line where they are going to be starting both a new right guard and a new right tackle. Oh, and it looks like the next few weeks, if not more, could be an absolute disaster for them. Devon Hn, Is this a guy that you maybe want to cut your losses early and just move on? Because this offense could be historically bad if Zach Wilson has to step in for two of he gets hurt. If this offensive line is not working, are we just moving on?
- [59:16]
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And I mean, I think that's another one where, like, I'm glad you brought this up because I think Devon Hn, like, people are going to see the fantasy production and be like, well, he got a bunch of targets. He scored a touchdown. That's what we want to see from Devon Hn. But, like, that touchdown came in garbage time on one of the softest play calls I have ever seen. Like, fourth and long in goal, and they throw a ball behind the line of scrimmage to Devon Achan. Like, oh, and like, luckily he was able to punch it in and kind of save his fantasy outing. But yeah, this offense is just completely broken. It feels like they had a broken offense last year. And we talk so much about, like, can they rewind the clock and go back to what they had in 2023, where they're running these long, developing routes where Tyreek Hill is getting open behind defenses. And like, we know he is so good at adjusting to balls that it doesn't even need to be a perfectly thrown ball. Like, Tyreek is going to come down with those deep balls. But the offensive line is so bad and they're so terrified of Tua getting hit that we're just seeing this dink and dun offense. So because of that, I think there is still some value in Devon Hn because he caught so many passes last year and he's probably going to again this year. But yeah, I mean, HN definitely not feeling as good about him now as I was in drafts.
- [60:25]
Alfredo Brown
And listen, I'm not saying that DeVoni Chan looked bad. Just to quote Mike McDaniel, it can't get any worse, can it? Well, yeah, it turns out out it can. I think that's what has me most worried here is like I don't think that even if Devon Achan stays healthy throughout the season that he is giving you that league winning upside that you wanted out of a first round running back or an early second round pick running back and it might be the time to cut your losses like asap. It's just, it's not even just him. It's that this entire offense looks horrendous and the offensive line could be just shredded apart. Now. Dave, last, last player we want to talk about here, Aaron Rodgers. I know you were excited. You said he looked good. I have different thoughts. So I want to hear first, I want to hear first from you what you thought about Aaron Rodgers. Because I think you and I are gonna have a disagreement on this one.
- [61:17]
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I, I thought he looked good. He looks spry. I saw some mobility, you know, a lot of the, the play action and bootlegs that he really thrived with when he was in Green Bay. We're seeing that in his game now. Like he's always been one of the best at throwing on the run and we saw a lot of that. Like, no. Does he look like a 30 year old Aaron Rodgers? Absolutely not. You know, he's going to be 42 years old and he's got a surgically repaired Achilles, but looks a lot more mobile than I had expected. And, and we're just seeing right now, I, I like this offense. I think that, you know, there's some good weapons here that complement each other well. Kelvin Austin kind of dawned on me when I was re watching this game yesterday. I'm like, there's a lot of Tyler Lockett in his game and DK Metcalf kind of having that complimentary piece, the small guy who can work out of the slot pre snap motion, move the chains, but also has the speed to get behind defenses. I think that's a Good piece to have. They played over 50 of their snaps out of 12 personnel too. So I think a lot of people are looking for the wide receiver three here. I don't know if there's going to be a wide receiver 3. I think we're going to see a lot of DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Pat Friarmouth and John who Smith on the field. But really like what it is for me we saw Aaron Rodgers heat up at the end of last season and I'm willing to just kind of disregard what we saw early in the year when he was coming off of that Achilles engine over his last six games. Alfredo, his 17 game pace is almost identical to what it was when he won a Super bowl in 2021. Like he's pacing for four, 200 yards, nearly 40 touchdowns, completing like 67 of his passes. Aaron Rodgers has like quietly been really, really good from last year leading into this year. And I'm interested your thoughts on this because I, I do think Rogers look good. I think this is a good offense for him.
- [62:50]
Alfredo Brown
Him.
- [62:51]
Dave Kluge
I think Arthur Smith is really good at setting his guys up for success. And Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't need to play hero ball here. I mean he's just running the offense, getting the ball to his playmakers and, and I think Arthur Smith, you know, I maybe not a good head coach but I think he's a very good offensive coordinator and I think that Aaron Rodgers has the, the wherewithal to, to run this offense very successfully.
- [63:14]
Alfredo Brown
So I think you're, you're right in a couple things is that Aaron Rodgers was very much able to run the piece play action very well. And that has been Aaron Rodgers strong suit throughout his career. Which is why I've thought for a while that the Aaron Rodgers Arthur Smith marriage is a perfect one. It is. The problem is, is very similar to Bix is that it does get figured out and the Arthur Smith offense gets figured out quickly. I mean we saw it last year. There was some success with Justin Fields. It gets figured out. There's some success with Russell Wilson. It gets figured out.
- [63:43]
Dave Kluge
Figured out.
- [63:44]
Alfredo Brown
I didn't see the same level of a guy having mobility. I think there's a big difference between a guy being able to simply do a rollout versus a quarterback that can escape pressure in the pocket. And that was the thing for me. Four sacks, second highest pressure pressure to sack ratio of any quarterback last week. And it was very similar to Bonix in that there were no passes of 20 plus air yards, only three completed balls beyond 10 air yards. Yards, everything was at or behind the line of scrimmage. And three of his touchdowns were on play action. And when you go back and watch them and like I don't, I don't want to be the one that takes away from a touchdown a play that happens. The Ben Scaronic touchdown, he, it's a blown coverage. He's there wide open all alone. The John New Smith touchdown pass is a pop pass. You know, coming around on that, that, that the jet sweep behind the line of scrimmage. Image. I would say that my, my favorite one that he had here was the Calvin Austin touchdown, which, which makes me excited for Calvin Austin. I just think that the limitations for Aaron Rodgers and the offense were a little bit more evident than the num. Excuse me, than the numbers might suggest. And I think that's what has me saying they look good this week. How long do they keep that up before they turn into a pumpkin? Because I think once teams don't have to respect your running game because they really didn't have to with Jalen Warren or Caleb Johnson or anything.
- [65:09]
Dave Kluge
If they don't have to respect Caleb Johnson, it was right. Kenneth Gainwell well ahead of Caleb Johnson on that, which was shocking to see.
- [65:16]
Alfredo Brown
And that's the thing is if your defense, if the defense doesn't have to respect your run game, they're not going to respect your play action. And if you're only going out there with DK Metcalf and you don't really have much else outside of Calvin Austin, there's not much else they have to be worried about. They're going to be able to key in on what the tension. And so that's what has me a little bit worried about not only Rogers, but just this Steelers offense.
- [65:38]
Dave Kluge
I think what gives me the most pause is just like that game as a whole. First of all, I think that was like, aside from the Bills Ravens game, I think that game was the game of the week. Like the Steelers jets game was a ton of fun. Like even the pregame narrative with like both these guys going back to play for the teams that they played for last year was a lot of fun. But I was expecting a pretty low scoring game. You know, I was expecting like a 1716 slugfest and to see both of these teams hanging up 30 plus points, you know, this is one where like I'm kind of waiting on both teams, the Steelers and the jets, to see what they do next week. Like, are these offenses way better than we expected them to be or are these defenses a lot worse than we expected to be. And I don't know if we really have the question yet. So next week, going against the Steelers or the, the Seahawks, also not a great defense, so I think we can carry that over. I think the big test, you know, the Patriots are an okay defense, but I think the big test comes in week four when they play the Vikings. Like, how is, is Aaron Rodgers going to hold up against these complex blitz packages that Brian Flores is going to be throwing at him? I think that's the big question there. So I do have faith in the Steelers, at least through the first three weeks, but I think that matchup against Minnesota is what I'm going to be watching closest. Like, is this real or is this fake? I think we'll get those answers in week four.
- [66:49]
Alfredo Brown
I, I think we might even get them in Week 2. Going up against Mike McDonald and the Seahawks defense, it might not be the best of defenses, but you get a week of the Aaron Rodgers film and the play action and everything. It's been. To me, the Steelers offense is sort of like a slasher in basketball. Like, they're really good at that one thing, and they're going to keep spamming that move over and over. Like the guy that can only go to his right and slash in the lane for a layup, like, that's, that's what they're going to be. So if they can open up their game and do more, by all means, that's great. And let's get the Arthur Smith wrinkles in there. I, I, I get a little bit worried about that before we sign off.
- [67:21]
Dave Kluge
Can I throw one more out there? I said Kurt Warner came to my support. My, my DMS are blowing up right now because Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick also just came to my support on this. So sorry, Caleb.
- [67:30]
Alfredo Brown
Wait, like, they responded to you?
- [67:32]
Dave Kluge
No, but on that exact play, saying that Caleb Williams made the right play and threw the right spot. So sorry, Bears fans. I'm sorry you're upset that your quarterback paints your fingernails, but I think that he made the right call on at least that play, disregarding the other Aaron throws throughout the game.
- [67:47]
Alfredo Brown
There you go, Dave, you tell him.
- [67:49]
Dave Kluge
Yeah.
- [67:50]
Alfredo Brown
Kurt Warner. Ryan Fitzpatrick. Patrick, agree with me. You're all.
- [67:53]
Dave Kluge
No, I had to account fifth. I had to mute 1500 accounts yesterday. Like, just went through my replies and every single person that called me a mean name, I muted them. Muted 1500 accounts yesterday. It was, it was very cathartic.
- [68:04]
Alfredo Brown
Just mute the meanie haters, man. Mute the mini haters. David, I gonna be back again tomorrow to give you guys our week two starts of the week. And Dave can, we're gonna stay positive on that one. It's just the starts, not the sits. Are we gonna do the sits as well?
- [68:20]
Dave Kluge
I'm up for whatever, man. Just, just tell me what.
- [68:23]
Alfredo Brown
I am so happy to have.
- [68:24]
Dave Kluge
I will talk about anything. Like if you want to do a one hour show, anything, man. There's nothing I can't talk about. I am so happy football is back. Like I, I can't even explain it. You know, we were talking pre show. Like I'm tired, my back aches, my eyes hurt. But I, I, I don't even care. Like I could not be happier. Like just drinking out of a fire hose right now. There's no dearth of content and takes and things to watch and data to consume. This is a, this might be like my favorite week of the year.
- [68:52]
Alfredo Brown
All right, we'll chill out a little bit. Let us know in the comments if you want us to do starts or starts and sits. We're, we're just gonna have some fun tomorrow, but we'll be back again tomorrow. As always, I want to thank everybody for watching or listening all the way through. For myself, for Dave. We'll see you next time. Adios, Foreign this episode is brought to.
- [69:22]
Dave Kluge
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Alfredo Brown
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Dave Kluge
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Alfredo Brown
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