Why Heath Cummings Takes Big Risks in Fantasy Football (and You Should Too!)

Podcast: Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Episode Title: Why Heath Cummings Takes Big Risks in Fantasy Football (and You Should Too!)
Guests: Alfredo Brown (host), Heath Cummings (CBS/Fantasy Football Today)
Date: July 23, 2025

Episode Overview

This in-depth episode features host Alfredo Brown in a candid, lively conversation with Heath Cummings, a leading CBS fantasy football analyst and co-host of FFT Dynasty. Dispensing with typical “sleepers and busts” talk, the discussion dives into risk-taking, process, and evolving philosophies in fantasy football—from how to leverage volatility and projections to industry-wide lessons, deeper context, and how fantasy football can impact positive change. The conversation covers Heath’s personal journey, professional ethos, and interactions with other top analysts, while also fielding unique listener questions on team stacks, “must-have” players, and more.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Philosophy of Risk in Fantasy Football

• Don’t Fear Volatility

  • Heath advocates for actively embracing risk and volatility, particularly in home leagues where going “safe and steady” is rarely the best path to a championship.
  • Quote:
    • “Your risk tolerance should be higher… I don’t care about how consistent a player is.” (40:43, 41:18, Heath)

• Emphasize Fun Over Fear

  • Fantasy football is ultimately a game—and if the fun disappears by overthinking or “always playing it safe”, you’re missing the point.
  • Quote:
    • “You’re playing a game. It should be fun.” (23:32, Heath)
    • “If you’re a fantasy football writer, you’re writing about a game, it should be fun. If it’s not fun, then what’s wrong?” (23:33, Heath)

2. Evolving Approach & Lessons from Experience

• Heath’s Journey

  • Heath describes taking a non-linear path: small-town Missouri roots, a journalism school “almost-semester,” insurance sales, blogging, and finally, almost by persistence and luck, landing at CBS.
  • Quote:
    • “It was always more of a driving towards than a thinking I should...I want to do this and not what I’m doing, so can I make that happen? And it happened.” (11:57, Heath)

• Show-Me Skepticism

  • Missouri’s “Show Me” state motto translates to his analytical process: be skeptical—don’t accept any result or spike year on face value. Always look for context and a reasonable explanation.
  • Quote:
    • “Was that real? Show me.” (14:31, Heath)
  • Outlier years get less weight unless they repeat; longer track-records influence his process.

• Process > Individual Lessons

  • After a season, don’t overhaul a good process for outlier results.
  • Quote:
    • “Don’t change your whole process because of that and now be wrong about seven guys and right about three.” (21:32, Heath)

3. Data, Projections, and Context

• Projecting from the Big Picture

  • Heath approaches projections from the team level—examining OC history, offensive potential, and then slices up the pie for individual player projections. Regression to the mean is key.
  • Quote:
    • “I start on the team level... then moving to the players, what percentage of pie does this player deserve?... Once you have that... then you can say, okay, I think this will be different.” (30:19, Heath)

• Volume Is King, Context Is Everything

  • Historical fantasy points and FP/G are more predictive than many advanced stats, but explaining why and projecting who will deviate from the trend is where edge comes from.
  • “The stats that best explain impact...are not always the ones most predictive.” (27:25, Heath)
  • Rookies and backup/contingent upside backs merit different approaches.

• Projections vs. Rankings: The Upside/Range Game

  • Often projections don’t capture the full risk/reward profile of some players—upside can matter more than projected median.
  • Quote:
    • “Certain players...don’t currently have a role...if you think they are good, you should rank them much higher than their projection.” (33:14, Heath)
  • “My rankings become less dependent on projections the deeper you get...double-digit rounds, I don’t care about them at all.” (43:07, Heath)

4. Managing Biases and League Dynamics

• Don’t Draft for Safety in the Middle and Late Rounds

  • Benches and later picks are for home-run swings, not “consistent” mediocrity.
  • “Don’t waste your bench...they won’t lose you a week, but they will win you your week.” (42:28, via Jake Seeley, echoed by Heath)

• Analyst Groupthink Is Bad for Listeners

  • Healthy disagreement between analysts sharpens everyone, avoids “mind-meld”, and ensures listeners get multiple perspectives.
  • It’s “a bigger concern than not being impacted by each other” if all the show’s rankings look the same. (20:43, Heath)

• Learning from Others

  • Interactions in analyst groups (like with FFT podmates or Sigmund Bloom) deepen perspectives, even if philosophies differ.

5. Technology & The AI Question

• Skepticism About AI in Fantasy Decisions
  • Heath downplays the need for AI tools, likening it to “simulating 2K instead of playing.” The game is about the decisions you make—don’t hand over the fun.
  • Quote:
    • “I wouldn’t...ever make me feel comfortable saying please do this for me. I’m just going to go to bed.” (47:07, Heath)
    • “We’re playing a game, aren’t we?” (47:51, Heath)

6. Fantasy Football’s Best Legacy: Giving Back

• Fantasy Community and Charity
  • Heath is proudest of the industry’s charitable impact (Fantasy Cares, St. Jude, Scott Fish Bowl).
  • Quote:
    • “I hope there’s some impact that we make through this game...this game becomes known as, man, they really used that game to do a lot of good for other people.” (51:20, Heath)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 07:48 | Heath | “As far as the ‘I’m actually good at this’, I’ll let you know if that happens. I have not come to that realization yet. I’m looking forward to it.” | | 14:31 | Heath | “Missouri, for anybody who doesn’t know, is the Show Me state. And I think that probably factors into the way I look at statistics…” | | 23:32 | Heath | “You’re playing a game. It should be fun.” | | 27:25 | Heath | “A lot of times the stats that are really the best at explaining the impact that the player had...are not the stats that are actually predictive of what’s going to happen next year.” | | 29:00 | Heath | “Being good at fantasy just translates to being good at fantasy again.” | | 41:18 | Heath | “I don’t care about how consistent a player is. That’s not something that ever factors in.” | | 47:07 | Heath | “I’ve not seen anything from this technology that would ever make me comfortable saying, ‘Please do this for me. I’m just going to go to bed.’” | | 51:20 | Heath | “I hope that legacy continues to grow...this game becomes known as, man, they really used that game to do a lot of good for other people.” |

Listener Q&A & Mailbag Highlights

• On dynasty stacking an offense (53:36):

  • Heath is not afraid to stack multiple players from one team, as long as you understand the correlation and risk profile. Target players you like—don’t be paralyzed by diversification.

• On having "must-have" players and reaching (54:40):

  • Heath tries not to lock himself in, but admits it's worse to “be too cute” and miss out on a guy you believe in than to reach a bit early. Typically, he’s willing to go about a round ahead of consensus for “his guys.”

• Favorite outlier 2025 targets mentioned (57:11):

  • DeAndre Swift and Jerry Jeudy (as of early July), with full awareness that these hot takes might age unpredictably!

• On best-ball and league formats (60:24):

  • Heath hates eight-team leagues; larger, deeper rosters, and best-ball are much preferred, mainly to reduce agonizing sit/start choices among too many good WR2s.

Important Timestamps

• Biggest industry misconception (“risk tolerance should be higher”): 00:37, 40:43
• Heath’s journey into fantasy professionally: 07:48 – 12:42
• Missouri “Show Me” skepticism and stat analysis: 13:48 – 16:46
• Process overreacting to bad results: 21:32
• Projections process explained: 29:56 – 32:34
• Consistency vs. volatility/bench philosophy: 41:18, 43:07
• Audience questions, player stacking/reaching: 53:36, 54:40
• Desired fantasy football legacy/Giving back: 51:20

Tone and Chemistry

The tone throughout the episode is relaxed, insightful, and sometimes delightfully self-deprecating—two analysts having fun riffing about the quirks of the fantasy football world while communicating actionable strategy and honest lessons. Heath's pragmatic yet playful approach, coupled with Alfredo's friendly probing, makes the conversation accessible for casual players and die-hards alike.

Recap: Takeaways for Listeners

• Don’t play fantasy football timid—embrace volatility, especially in the later rounds and on your bench.
• Trust foundational stats, but always demand context and beware of outliers.
• Process matters: over-hauling your methods because of outlier misses is a mistake.
• Disagreement among analysts is good for you—the audience!
• Volume and projections are important, but upside wins leagues—especially after Round 10+.
• Enjoy the game and engage with the community—fantasy football’s greatest legacy is the good it inspires off the field.
• Technology is a tool, not a replacement. Don’t hand over the fun or your decisions to AI.

Connect with Heath Cummings:

• FFT Dynasty Podcast, CBS Sports
• Participate in community charity: Fantasy Cares / St. Jude