← Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
You're Drafting These Players Wrong (Higher / Lower Than Consensus)
00:42:10
Loading summary
Transcript51 lines
- [00:01]
Amazon Music Advertiser
Ever notice how ads always pop up at the worst moments when the killer's identity is about to be revealed during that perfect meditation flow? On Amazon Music, we believe in keeping you in the moment. That's why we've got millions of ad free podcast episodes so you can stay completely immersed in every story, every reveal, every breath. Download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite podcasts. Ad free included with Prime Most people
- [00:35]
Aura Advertiser
don't realize how much of their personal information is being bought and sold every day. Data brokers are making millions, pulling details about you from public records and the Internet, then packaging and selling it, usually without your consent. That's how your information lands in the hands of scammers, spammers, even stalkers. It's why you get endless robocalls and why ads seem to follow you everywhere. That's where Aura comes in. Aura actively removes your data from broker sites and keeps it off. They also instantly alert you if your information shows up in a breach or on the dark web. But Aura goes beyond data protection. With one app you get a vpn, antivirus, password manager, spam, call protection, dark web monitoring, and even up to $5 million in identity theft insurance, all backed by 24. 7 US based fraud support. Other companies might just sell credit monitoring or just a vpn. Aura gives you all of it together at the same price competitors charge for just one service. Start your free trial today at aura.com hidden protect yourself now@aura.com hidden.
- [01:54]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Over the weekend I was looking at some fantasy football rankings and there are just so many right now that are flat out wrong. Players that should have moved up after free agency didn't move up as much as they should. Players who should have fallen didn't fall the way that they should. Today Joey Wright and I are looking at some consensus ADP comparing to our rankings and seeing some of the biggest deviations among their Joey, the first guy you want to talk about is a receiver, still young on a good offense, now with a little bit more opportunity than he had last year. Talk to me a little bit about why you are higher on Christian Watson.
- [02:28]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Before I talk about Christian Watson I want to talk about Dylan McCarty, our incredible graphics guy. Like knocking it out of the park today. But yes, I will talk about Christian Watson. He is my wide receiver 24. His hang ups always kind of been staying on the field. Last season wasn't that great of a year. He didn't play, only played 10 games, finished as a wide receiver 42. So nothing really spectacular if you look there. But in A points per game basis, he was a wide receiver 17 on a points per game. Once he stepped on the field in Week 8, he was a wide receiver 13 rest of season and then he missed no time. I'm hoping this is the jumping off point finally for Christian Watson. North Dakota State players. You fooled me before and I will probably maybe be fooled again. I don't think so this time. I think I got this one right. Trailed only Alec Pierce last year in yards per reception with 17 and a half yards per reception, third in the league last year in average depth of target. So he gets downfield quick and he's Got great hands. 1.8 drop rate. 1 of the best rates in the league if you're playing half PPR or no PPR at all. So a standard league. I like Christian Watson even more. The only thing I think that I wish I could say is that Romeo Dobbs going to New England and I wish I could say that moves the needle more for him. It really doesn't. They, they really had different skill sets. I still expect Jordan love to move the ball around, but a healthy version of Christian Watson getting down the field and he stays on the field all 17 games. That's somebody I want on my fantasy team this year.
- [03:54]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
There's a lot I want to unpack there. First of all, you talked about the low drop rate. It's so funny how like we, we hold on to these moments and if you remember Christian Watson like the first target he ever got in his NFL career was a bomb from Aaron Rodgers that went right, right through his fingertips. And then he was just like banished to the shadow realm from there on out. Never really got it going with Aaron Rodgers. You talk about the injuries as well, but the other thing you mentioned that I really want to talk about, you said Alec Pierce, he was second in yards per target or yards per reception. I forget you said behind only Alec Pierce. And these types of players, these hyper efficient receivers, it doesn't take a lot. Just like a little smidge of extra targets in their direction can push these players from being kind of wide receiver twos to elite wide receiver ones. We saw with Jameson Williams last year. We, we saw it with Alec Pierce last year. So looking at Christian Watson, this is a guy who the opportunity is going to be there. He's already been very efficient with the opportunities that have come his way throughout his career. And you say that Romeo Dubs leaving doesn't make a huge difference. I mean that is still 80 to 100 targets every single year that are unaccounted for. We can't count on Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed. His health is always a question as well. So I look at Christian Watson as the very clear wide receiver one in this packers offense. I think if there is a type of player that you would want to be above consensus on, a young, hyper, athletic guy with opportunity on a good offense, that's exactly the type of player you should be targeting.
- [05:13]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Absolutely. I you mentioned a name there and I want to kind of highlight is that's Jameson Williams. And I saw Jameson Williams fly up ranking sheets and draft boards last year and for me it's just like, okay, well that's this year's Christian Watson. Like they're different players but like so similar. So similar. So yeah, I was glad you said Jameson Williams because I was thinking that too.
- [05:34]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
So before we jump into the rest of this, we're going to keep talking about players that we are higher and lower than consensus on. Before we do that, though, if you're watching on YouTube, do us a favor, as always, give us that thumbs up that is going to help this episode grow. If you're watching and you are not subscribed for whatever reason, subscribe. Bringing you three episodes a week between now and the NFL Draft. We're ramping that up. After the NFL Draft. We do five episodes per week in season covering everything you need. Fantasy football related. If you're listening on Apple Podcasts, do us a favor and leave us a review. Best way to help this show grow. And we ask that all the time. But if you are listening and haven't left a review yet, please go ahead and do that. Now, let's talk about the next guy. We want to talk about Joey and this is one of mine, D.J. moore. And I heard a lot of weird takes about DJ Moore after this trade went through. My reaction is that, like, if your reaction is anything other than this is awesome for everyone involved, you are just missing the forest through the trees. This is fantastic. This is good for Josh Allen. It's good for DJ Moore. It's good for all the young receivers in Chicago. It's good for Caleb Williams. Like, there isn't a loser from this trade. Maybe Khalil Shakir, but he was kind of on the fringe of fantasy involvement. Anyway, DJ Moore lands with Josh Allen and we, we saw like the biggest problem with DJ Moore in Chicago was that he wasn't a fit for Ben Johnson's offense. You know, so much of Ben Johnson's offense is predicated on getting a guy open. And that's not really what DJ Moore does at least not within the structure of the offense. He does a lot of off script things. He kind of finds his own soft spots in the zone where Ben Johnson is more get on your spot, get that ball. So we saw a lot of this freelance work last year and it didn't really work out too well in Chicago. But this is where Josh Allen thrives and Matt Harmon over at Yahoo Sports wrote an amazing article about this where he got to put the pieces together before the trade happened and talked about what Josh Allen looks for in a receiver, what DJ Moore looks for in a quarterback. We have seen historically with Stefan Diggs what Josh Allen can do when he has a bona fide wide receiver. 1. So sure we can nitpick the second round pick, maybe it was a little bit too rich of a trade. But this is the Bills knowing exactly what they need. The player that fits their scheme, pushing the chips in. We've also seen DJ Moore, his second best season ever came when he was in a Joe Brady offense. So there's just a lot of reasons to be bullish on DJ Moore right now. He's fallen into wide receiver three territory getting going off the board as wide receiver 26. I've got him as a high end wide receiver too and even that I think that he can easily outsurpass that. Just a couple extra touchdowns go his direction. We could easily see another wide receiver one year from DJ Moore.
- [08:03]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, I'm gonna push back on something you said and that's clueless Shakir. I don't think this hurts him as much as people think and I know you don't really think that either. But clue Shakir very well is the wide receiver too on a team and now he gets to do that and I think through that we'll see him succeed. But I love the DJ Mark call out. He's Josh Allen's wide receiver one like let's go. This is what we've been wanting for Josh Allen since Diggs left. So I love the call out for DJ Moore and what's the phrase like rising tides lift all boats. It's a big time coming into Buffalo. Is Buffalo on the sea? Is it is a coastal town? I don't think so. It's.
- [08:37]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
I think it's superior. There's one of the lakes right over there by Buffalo. I don't know which one they get that lake effect snow. So I know you know not not looking at my map of the US as we're recording the show about but I think it's Lake Superior I could be wrong. But anyway, I talk about this Ben Johnson offense a little bit. I'm going to talk about another guy that's a part of this Ben Johnson offense. Kind of the fallout there. Right now we're talking about the players that we prefer to consensus. We're going to talk about some players that we don't like as much as consensus later in the show. So be sure to stick through while we talk about that. But Joey, the next guy that you want to talk about, you know we talk about a lot of the same players throughout the offseason. We want to like really hammer it home that we are in on a player. You talked about Javante Williams just last week. You're going to talk about him again. Tell me what it is so much about Javante Williams that you like in this Cowboys offense.
- [09:23]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
You know, I if I'm going to be the Javante Williams guy this year, this is. It's decided now. What is it? March 24 I'm the Javante Williams guy. I hit. I hit it on last week's episode. Go back to some great stuff last week as well. 287 total touches last season in 2025, 230 more than any running back there in the offense in Dallas and we covered last week. The Cowboys have other needs in this draft. They're going to go linebacker, they're going to go edge rusher. They might tap running back in the third round, but not even that's guaranteed up arrow for all things we saw in 2025. Looks completely recovered from that ACL injury. No setbacks last season. Career highs and rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He excels in pass protection so he rarely comes off the field. Top finer rushing yards inside the red zone and in rushing attempts behind only Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. There's so many great things I see ahead for Javante Williams. There's so many in in just football in general, like showcase positions. And the Dallas Cowboys running back is always somebody that's played out for people. Well, in fantasy, the last few seasons has been a little rocky. Except for last year when Javante really stepped up as a top 12 running back. I just see it happening again this year. Very easy. I have him as RB14, but I think it could be much higher.
- [10:37]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
And you know, I'll even say that it hasn't been that rocky. We just haven't seen like a full season. But I remember two years ago, second half of the season Rico Dowdle was a league winner and you saw three years ago Tony Pollard stepped in When Ezekiel got hurt, another league winner. So we've seen guys kind of in short spurts, whether it's just for half a season or one year, be that guy in Dallas. But now Javante Williams on a multi year contract coming off of the big season. Plenty of reason to be excited there. And I talked about this last time we talked about Javante, but the age here, I think it surprises a lot of people. Still just 25 years old, he came into the league so young, had that devastating knee injury, missed some time. It felt like his whole time in Denver like spanned over a decade. But it was four years in Denver. Now he is still young, relatively fresh legs. This guy does everything we want to see. He catches passes, he gets goal line work, he breaks tackles and of course on a good offense. So Joey, don't feel bad about talking about Javante Williams again. You can talk about him every show from here on out. I think if you're going to put a chip on a running back, Javante Williams is the exact type of guy you want to bet on. Let me ask you one quick question and we'll go a little bit off script here. Jeremiah Love. I feel like so many of these running backs that are kind of hanging on teams that are picking in the first half of the draft are all worried about Jeremiah Love. And at first we were thinking, you know, maybe he would fall to Dallas at 12. Then we started hearing rumors that maybe Washington at 7 was in play. Then we hear all the way up to four in Tennessee is potentially in play. Get a report from today from Adam Schefter that Jeremiah Love probably isn't going four to Tennessee, probably isn't going five to the Giants. So I think seven to Commanders would make sense. But let's say theoretically Jeremiah Love does fall all the way to 12. I imagine that would make you kind of eat your Javante take if that happened, right?
- [12:22]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
I would get a helping plate of it with like two forks and I'd have to swallow every little bit of Javante Love I have because it would change everything. Absolutely.
- [12:31]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
And that's why we are recording the show, as you said, on March 24th before the NFL draft still dominoes to fall. And before we talk about the next player, the NFL draft is coming up. Our rookie guide, footballguys.com rookieguide Be sure to check that out if you haven't already. 100 free. We have over 150 prospects in there. We've got all the info from the combine, player comps, stats, scouting reports, strengths, weaknesses, quick little one sentence Rundowns, you name it, we've got it. And we're coming out with version three after the NFL draft where we'll have more rankings. You know, the, the, the, the landing spot, breakdowns, all that good stuff. Footballguys.com rookieguide Be sure to check that out. Next guy that I'm going to talk about here was in last year's rookie guide as one of our favorite running backs, Omarion Hampton. And I am thrilled about this fit. We don't have a lot to go off of from his rookie season. Right. Like we saw early in the year, Najee Harris was getting a lot of work. Then Najee Harris got hurt. We saw two games where Omarion Hampton really took over as the bell cow and then he got hurt when he came back late in the season. Wasn't quite himself, but in those two games that we saw him playing 294 yards, he was on pace. You know it's a dangerous game, right? Taking a two game sample, exploding in over 17 games. But he was pacing for 2500 scrimmage yards, scoring touchdowns, catching passes. Everything we want to see from a fantasy running back. And going into next year, Rashawn Slater should be healthy, Joe Alt should be healthy. The Chargers will have their bookend tackles back that are going to make Hampton's job easier. And then of course We've got Mike McDaniel in the picture right now, which gets me even more excited. Last year he gave Devon Achan the sixth most weighted opportunities in the league. And we're looking at Omarion Hampton, a guy with 33 pounds on him, a guy who's much more built for that three down skill set. So we have seen that Mike McDaniel wants to get these guys involved in the passing game. So we're going to see Omari Hampton out there getting all the goal line work, should get a good chunk of passing down work, is a talented back with a three down workload running behind what's going to be a much improved offensive line. This is a first round pick that we know has the talent and injuries kept him at bay last year. I know right now he's getting drafted as kind of a back end RB1. I have him in that elite RB1 range. I think Hampton, if you're able to get him in round two or one of the easiest picks you're going to be able to make in drafts this year.
- [14:47]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, 100% the Mike McDaniel coming in there to Los Angeles. I almost said San Diego, but I didn't. Coming to Los Angeles makes me so excited. We've seen two years of what he did with hn. I could not be more excited for Hampton next year. I don't know if I'm at RB3. Will I get there by the by the draft season? Maybe. Maybe. I don't know if I'm there yet, but I think RB8 is too low, though. I think somewhere around 4 or 5 is probably where I would be as well.
- [15:12]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah. And when we're looking at Dynasty, sure I'm going to prefer Ash and Ginty, I'm going to prefer Jeremiah Love. But looking at outlooks for this season, we're looking at a guy who doesn't have a lot of competition right now in the backfield, who's going to be on a good offense, who's behind a good offensive line with an offensive coordinator who has fed running backs historically. I know this seems bullish right now, but if we're drafting in August and he moves up into the middle of round one, going off the board as the third or fourth running back, it would not surprise me one bit. I I got another running back that I'm going to talk about before I get to that running back. Joey, you've got a tight end that you want to talk about here and I love this one.
- [15:47]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
So this is the most puzzling like consensus ranking out there for me right now. And I and I know he's not like a spring chicken, but Hunter Henry as the tight end 20 I it's just I'm baffled. Last year's tight end seven back to back years. Now it's a top 12 tight end. Drake May has built an obvious rapport with him second on the team of targets in 2025 after leading in 2024. What more do we need to say? I'll say more. His targets took a small dip last season in addition with Stefon Diggs coming into the team and we have room with Romeo Dobbs coming in to the Patriots this year. So I would actually assume Henry's targets will be right around the same. But last year, even though his targets did dip, they went up where tight end targets matter the most. And that's in the red zone. Henry was sixth in the league in red zone targets behind these players because you know me, I love to list players a Monterey St. Brown, Trey McBride, Devonte Adams, Christian McCaffrey and Jake Ferguson. Okay, that last name is not that exciting, but getting 33 of your team's red zone targets is very exciting.
- [16:53]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
And this isn't among tight ends. This Is all players.
- [16:55]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
All players. I am so in. On Hunter Henry if you miss on Trey McBride, on Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, Colson Loveland. I was gonna say Loveland. If you miss on one of those four tight ends, you can apparently wait till around the 15th or 16th tight end and grab Hunter Henry. And I am so happy to have him. I'm happy to have him as my starting tight end. I got into a little bit of debate today on the football guys discord of Is Hunter Henry a starting tight end? I absolutely believe he is.
- [17:25]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
And you know, I think there's different ways to attack the tight end position in fantasy football. Of course we'd love every team to have a tight end who pulls a 30. Target sharing can do miraculous things on the football field. But there's only two of those guys that exist and that's Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. And that's why they're off the board by the end of round two. Sure, we're hoping Tyler Warren and Colson Loveland can take that step forward. Maybe Travis Kelsey can rewind the clock, maybe Mark Andrews can do so with Isaiah likely out of the picture. But. But the reality is those guys are so rare, that's why they get steamed up. Draft boards. So if I'm looking for a guy to target late, there's kind of two archetypes that I'm looking for and one is the young kind of unknown guy and like that's where we found Harold Fannin last year and Colson Loveland last year. And this goes back to our good friend Andrew Cooper talks about the yin yang theory. That is your upside, the swing that you're going to take. Maybe this year it's an Eli Stowers or maybe it's a Kenyon Sadiq, one of these super athletic rookies but you pair him up with a guy who can, for lack of a better term, be boring. Like Hunter Henry isn't getting anybody excited when you draft him, but he is a good tight end on a good offense and he catches a lot of touchdowns. So I think that's really what you're hoping for. Hunter Henry isn't a guy who's going to be a 12 target per game type of player, but he can score a touchdown any given week. And Joey, if I'm streaming a tight end or if I'm taking somebody in round 20, my fantasy league, I'm okay with one catch for five yards and a touchdown. That will play.
- [18:46]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yep. Yeah, he's like the Tim Duncan. If you go for basketball fans like The Tim Duncan right now of the Patriots. There's nothing exciting there. But I mean I talked earlier about the California running back. What'd you say?
- [18:58]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Mr. Fundamental, right?
- [18:59]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, absolutely. I talked about what was it, the Dallas Cowboys running back being like a fantasy position that's played out over the years. New England tight end, there's another one for you.
- [19:12]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah, I, I sold myself on Johnny Smith a few years ago with that exact mindset. But we've seen it from under Henry. This isn't an unknown. We've seen him in this offense for years. We've seen the rapport with Drake May. So I like that. I got one more running back I'm going to talk about here, Joey J.K. dobbins. And I just cannot quit this guy. I mean I just talked about. You talked about Javante Williams, I'm talking about J.K. dobbins. I feel like these guys are kind of like tied together. Came into the league just a year opposite each other. Both suffered these devastating injuries early in their career. And because of that I think there's just like this mindset that these are these older dusty veterans that nobody wants. J.K. dobbins is still 27 years old, just two years older than R.J. harvey. And when the two were healthy, he was the clear favorite. The two played together for 10 games over those 10 games. J.K. dobbins at 167 opportunities to R.J. harvey's 79. They just brought him back on a two year deal. He is a part of this offense going forward and we have seen that Sean Payton, Sean Payton does like to have a split backfield. J.K. dobbins is going to be the guy who's going to handle the majority of the work. But to me, I don't want to make an exact comp because they're such different players. But like J.K. dobbins is kind of the Mark Ingram. RJ Harvey is sort of the Alvin Camara. Alvin camara or. Sorry. R.J. harvey is going to be a little bit more involved on passing down work. But J.K. dobbins is getting all of that goal line work. He can still make do in the passing game as well. So, you know, I realize that there's some apprehension because of the injuries, you know, and has never played a full season. But he was on the field last year. He was seventh in the league in true yards per carry per player profiler. So it wasn't just opportunity, but it was opportunity and efficiency. This guy was a former second round pick. The injuries have been there But I truly believe that when he's healthy, when he's on the field, J.K. dobbins is a top 15 running back in the NFL. And now he is on an offense that wants to lean on him and get him at work. So I know everyone's going to be going after RJ Harvey because he's the younger guy and he catches passes. But. But I am a okay, waiting in drafts and taking J.K. dobbins paying up for him a little bit more than consensus will. But if I can get J.K. dobbins as the 30th running back off the board, that is just such an easy click to make.
- [21:17]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah. Looking at the nucleus of this Denver Broncos team, like, I would prefer to have the J.K. dobbins. This defense is fantastic for Denver. I could see just them leaning on Dobbins just to run the ball down the throat to run the clock out. And that's the running back I would want in this offense. Now, I know Harvey's really exciting. I watched him play at ucf. He's a big play guy. He doesn't need a whole lot of plays to have value. I think Dobbins, you're completely right. I think Dobbins is going to get the majority of the work here. Yeah. At RB30. Like, please. And if he's going to RB35 right now, even better value. So I like this a lot.
- [21:48]
Amazon Music Advertiser
Underwear drawers are like the Wild west of wardrobes. You never know what pair you're gonna pull out or what shape it's in. It's time to upgrade your underwear drawer with the buttery, soft comfort of Me Undies. Meundies signature fabric is as soft as a warm hug from your favorite sweater. Plus, it's breathable and oh so comfy, making it ideal for all day wear. Get 20% off your first order plus free shipping at Meundies.com comfort Enter promo code comfort that's Meundies.com comfort code comfort Feel your best and amplify your everyday look with Thrive cosmetics. Go to thrivecosmetics.com shine26 for an exclusive offer of 20% off your first order. That's Thrive Cosmetics. C-A U S E M E T I C S.com shine26 we are back
- [22:37]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
with Joey Wright and we're talking about some of our favorite values in drafts right now compared to consensus adp. Joey, you want to talk about Matthew Stafford, a guy who, despite coming off a QB one year, is still getting drafted outside of the top 12 quarterbacks this season.
- [22:51]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, I mean Matthew Stafford's kind of been my guy for years. You know I always, I always like to wait on quarterback and so Matthew Stafford's kind of a guy. I've seen a lot. Sometimes you get rewarded and you get a top five quarterback when you wait into the double digit rounds. And that's what happened last year with Matthew Stafford. Finishes the QB3 last year, league leading, 4,707 passing yards, career high, 46 passing touchdowns. Love to see that from him. He's the QB right now for me that has the smallest amount of a learning curve. His Titan rotation like a Swiss army knife of Titans. They're all coming back. Devonte Adams looks like he's coming back. We know Puka Nuku is going to be there. He's been in the Shamak Bay offense, he knows what to do. I don't understand why he's going 10, oh no, 11 spots further than where he finished. And I guess you could say it's age but for a weight on QB approach if you can get Matthew Stafford there, you could take a high upside guy later on like Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield, Tyler Shock, these guys are all going even after Matthew Stafford at this point. Pair those quarterbacks up, play the matchups. But if you're getting a guy that has top five quarterback upside in the double digit rounds, I, I can't see how you pass that up.
- [24:03]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
You know we talked about the yin and yang theory that our friend Andrew Cooper kind of trademarked about tight ends. But you can use that same exact theory with quarterbacks. And I think that Matthew Stafford is that perfect boring quarterback that if the efficiency just leans slightly in his direction as it has multiple times throughout his career, then all of a sudden he's not a boring quarterback and he's a top five passing quarterback. So I know the age, the lack of rushing, I understand why people don't get excited about Matthew Stafford but what we can get excited about is the red zone passing opportunities. Joey, this is unbelievable. I'm looking right now. Matthew Stafford last year threw 27 touchdowns inside the 10 yard line. The next closest was 17. I mean like this is what he does and we saw this when Aaron Rodgers was playing with Devonte Adams that they don't want to turn around and give the ball to a running back. They're just going to throw up. Goal line fades to Devonte Adams and let him what he does best. So the touchdowns were there also the attempts were there. He had 58 passing attempts inside the 10 yard line. Nobody else had more than 50. So he's getting the opportunity and he is converting at the goal line as a passer. That's not something you're getting from a lot of other NFL quarterbacks. So love that call out. Any final thoughts on Matthew Stafford?
- [25:11]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
No, I mean, I. I think with Stafford, one thing, he doesn't run a lot, so I think that could be a knock on him. But also at the same time, he does stay upright a lot. Because of that, he gets rid of the ball really quickly. You know, he has been sacked in previous season, but he seems to get away from that. He's just getting rid of it now because he's probably old man age, doesn't want to take the hits anymore. But no, I love Stafford.
- [25:32]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah, and you see that from some of these older quarterbacks is that it just becomes subconscious for them. Like they don't even have to think about it. Like I think of late career Tom Brady, the way he would just like sense defenders coming from every direction and just slide around the pocket. You see that with Stafford now, like he wants to get the ball out of his hand quickly. On the occasion that he does hold on to it, he's still able to just navigate the pocket and avoid those big hits. So, you know, it seems like we've been talking about Matthew Stafford's inevitable retirement for the last five years. But you know, coming off of a huge season with a deep run into the playoffs, I'd expect to see Stafford out there again next year. Going to talk about one more quarterback that we prefer to consensus and then for the fun part of the show, we talk about the guys that we think consensus is just way too high on. But before for that, Jackson Dart is the guy that I am comfortable being extremely aggressive on this year. Consensus ranking QB12. I've got him as my QB5 in rankings. And you talked about Javante last week. I talked about Jackson Dart last week. Sometimes we've just got to hitch our wagons to what we think is going to be a strong trailer and that's where I am right here. You know, I look at Harbaugh going to New York and the moves that they made in free agency. Bringing in Isaiah, Likely bringing in Patrick Ricard Card. They want to have the same offense that Harbaugh was running in in Baltimore. They've already got Theo Johnson, Thomas Fedoni, Chris Manhur. They've got the good inline tight ends. Now they've got Isaiah Likely out there to run these jumbo sets just like they did in Baltimore. We're going to see multiple Tight ends on the field, we're going to see a full time fullback, we're going to see lots of rushing, we're going to see option based passing concepts and of course a lot of designed quarterback rushing. And last year from week four through the end of the season when Jackson Dart took over as a starter, he was the QB8 on a PER game basis as the fantasy scorer in 12 starts. He had 18 plus points in 10 of those 12 starts. So this guy was just a lock for QB1 production almost every single week last year. Now he's going to be an improved offense with better pieces and weapons around him, more design rushes and then of course Malik Neighbors coming back from injury as well. So I am shocked to see that Jackson Dark is falling this deep into drafts. It's kind of a back end QB1. When I see a young player with elite rushing upside throwing to one of the best wide receivers in football with a coach and personnel set around him, that's going to maximize his skill set. I, I, I, I, I'm shocked that his consensus ranking isn't that of a top five quarterback. Joey?
- [27:57]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, it's, it's, it's funny because we talked, you were talking Yang and Yang and my guy that I'm going to be out on is going to be kind of the Yang from Jackson Dart because there's so many signs that last year is probably not going to be a fluke with him. You know, he's got a, the coaching staff that we've seen that work with Lamar Jackson before. So we're excited for that. His best player was not on the field with him last season and Malik Neighbors and if you think that Cam Scatteraboo was his best player, I'm with you on that. Hive. He's really fun, but that offense that he's gonna be playing, it's gonna be much better than last year. I completely agree on Jackson Dart being a top five quarterback.
- [28:31]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah, I think this is one of the easier ones. And Joey, you know, we, we have to talk about both sides of the coin, right? Like people like hearing about the players that we like. They don't like hearing as much about the players that we don't like. But we want to be honest analysts here and if we're gonna hype up a bunch of guys, we've got to have the second half of the show where we talk about the guys that we aren't quite as excited about. I gotta say, Joey, you know, for, for people who are new to this show, new to this channel, new To Joey Wright. Joey Wright is an unabashed Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan. So when you told me that this is the player that you want to talk about, my, my job nearly fell off my face.
- [29:07]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, nobody can accuse me of being a homer on this show based on this pick right here. It's not a matter of not liking Bucky Irving. I think he's talented. I just hate this ranking of RB21, especially with the addition pass catching running back specialist Kenneth Gainwell. At the height of his 2024 rookie campaign, Bucky Irving was the RB19 on the season. From Weeks 10 to 17, he was the RB7. He looked like this is a breakout for him. That's when he started getting double digited carries and then he kind of had a book in season last year. Finished the season as the RB18 of fantasy points per game. This is dentist into Kenneth Gainwell though is what scares me. They paid Gainwell the third highest running back free agent contract this year. They're going to be using him. They're going to use him to catch passes. He was fourth in the league last year in running back receptions, fifth in yardage and targets among all running backs with Kenneth Gainwell. But here's why it scares me for Bucky Irving. Because Bucky Irving's fantasy points come from receiving. In 2024, 35 of his points came from receiving and in 2025, 54.6 or 75.7 of his points in PPR leagues came from the receiving game. If you just take 25 of that away. So I'm not even taking all the work away. I just want to take a little bit away from Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving goes from the RB18 on a points per game basis to the RB27. And I think Kenneth Gainwell is going to take a lot more of that receiving work away from buck Irving than 25. That's a really conservative estimate. It's not that I don't like Bucky. I think he's a great between the tackles runner and I think that is his work he's going to have on this Bucks offense. But as far as the passing downs work, that's going to go to Kenneth Gainwell and it's really going to cut into Bucky Irving.
- [30:51]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah, and we saw Rashad Whitehead just kind of fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. But I think that moving on from White and bringing in Gainwell, you know it's going to be a similar role but could be higher volume going Gainwell's way than we saw going Rashad White's way. And unless I overheard or didn't hear, I don't even think you mentioned Sean Tucker, who they brought back, who the coaching staff really seems to like. And he's got that body that is built for goal line work as well. So Bucky Irving is a really complicated evaluation because when you watch him on the field, he's just an electric playmaker. His ability to break tackles, to just navigate through space, you know, find little tiny creases and squeeze through them is unbelievable. But he's also an undersized day three back who had terrible athletic testing. Like, there are red flags here. And more often than not, betting against these undersized day three running backs is a good bet. Of course, we've seen Kyron Williams buck that trend, and Chase Brown has bucked that trend, and Bucky Irving could be next. But I think when you just kind of look at this situation objectively, there is a lot of reason to be out of Bucky Irving at his cost. Going off the board as RB15. Now, last year, he was getting steamed up inside the top 10. I didn't draft Bucky Irving on any teams and felt okay about that decision. I think now this year people are being a little bit more trepidatious, and that's why he's falling a little bit in drafts. But still, I'm with you, Joey. I've got him lower than his current ranking of RB15. It's funny, you know, you talk about a Bucks player, I've got a Bears player I'm going to talk about in a little bit. Maybe this is us just, like, trying a little too hard to. To work on our. On our trust with the audience here. Any final thoughts on Bucky Irving and the Bucks, or do we want to talk about the next player? Joey?
- [32:31]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, I'd really love to be wrong on this. Like, of all the things, maybe that's it.
- [32:36]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Maybe we just wishcast it. Maybe we just talk about, like, how the Bears are going to be terrible, Bucks are going to be terrible, and then that way when things are right, we could. We can kind of feel good about being wrong.
- [32:44]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Exactly. But no, I mean, like I said it, with Kenneth Gainwell coming in, it's just. I just don't see his production maintaining what we've seen the last two years when he's been on the field. It just. It just doesn't seem possible to me. But, you know, Mike Evans is gone. Maybe they start using Kenneth Gainwell as kind of like a pseudo wide receiver.
- [33:01]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
I don't know, but we'll see how that shakes out. Next guy I'm going to talk about this is another tough one because this is a guy that I was extremely bullish on for the last few years, especially last season. But looking at where Rico Dowdle landed with the Pittsburgh Steelers, I just can't really get that type of excitement. I mean, I'm looking right now he's going off the board as the RB31 Joey. I've got him outside of my top 45. He's my. I mean I'm looking at him as kind of an RB4, RB5, an injury away guy. Like if you're really desperate during bye weeks. But people are drafting him hoping that they can rely on him as a flex play and I just don't see that. Last year when we looked at how Pittsburgh kind of prioritized their running back rooms, it seemed to me like they cared about pass blocking more than anything else. When you've got an old and immobile Aaron Rodgers back there, I completely understand that. That's why Caleb Johnson didn't get opportunities. That's why Kenneth Gainwell was on the field so much. And looking at Jalen Morin and Rico Doddle, the current backfield for the Steelers, I'm not even factoring Caleb Johnson into this equation until he gives me reason to. I was looking on PFF earlier today though and there were 81 running backs last year who logged 35 plus passing snaps. A lot of numbers there. 81 running backs is the sample size that we are looking at. Jalen Warren ranked 8th among those 81 running backs in pass blocking. Rico Dowdle ranked 74th among those 81 running backs. So we've got one of the best pass blockers in the league and Rico Dowdle one of the worst pass blockers in the league. So that makes me think that what we're going to be looking at with Rico Dowdle is being relegated just to early down work. They're not going to want him in on third down. They're not going to want him in a hurry up or the two minute drill. He's going to get a lot of the early down touches and if that's all he's getting on this offense, I don't think that there's much of a ceiling here. And when you look at how the Steelers accrued their fantasy points last year, it was through the air. Aaron Rodgers just wants to check down, get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. Jalen Warren was 11th in the league in targets last year And Kenneth Gainwell was fourth in the league in targets last year. So if we're looking at Rico Dowdle, who isn't a good pass blocker, isn't a good pass catcher on a Pittsburgh Steelers offense that might not be scoring a ton, I just see a very, very narrow path to fantasy relevance here. So this is a player that I am a. Okay. Just being way below consensus on.
- [35:18]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, it's kind of a reverse of the situation the Denver Broncos. Like, we kind of want the past catching back here and it's definitely not going to recode outle.
- [35:24]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah. So I don't have a ton to add here. I mean, looking through those pass blocking grades last year, that to me is a giant red flag. You know, the inability to pass block is why we assume that Caleb Johnson could get on the field last year and that could end up keeping Rico Doddle off the field this year. All this to be said, I'm very aggressive in my Jalen Warren ranking for this 2026 season, but we'll save that take for another day. Joey, we each have one player left that we want to discuss. And my goodness, looking at these names, we are going to get some very angry YouTube comments about these players.
- [35:57]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
And that's not what I'm trying to do today. But, you know, bring it. No, it's. This is a truly a trust factor ranking with Jaden Daniels. I have him as my QB8, which isn't even that far from QB4. There are just a few guys that I trust ahead of him. Joe Burrow. Jalen hurts Jackson Dart, and I don't even think that's that spicy. But when you've got a new awesome court, offensive coordinator David Blau coming in, who doesn't have the best track record, Trek track record. It's kind of the reverse of what I was saying with Jackson Dart. With Jackson Dart. We've seen how successful an offense run by Harbaugh can be. We haven't really seen that from David Blau. And kudos to Jason Wood for shouting it out. Just saying such, such a risk factor there with David Blau. You know, 20, 20, 24, 2024, we saw a breakout season where he was the QB6. I just need to see it again from him in this new offense to trust him. Putting him inside my top five quarterbacks,
- [36:52]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
I think that's fair. And in the battle of consensus rankings and Joey Wright rankings, I am Switzerland here. I've got Jade Daniels as my, my QB6. So a little bit lower than consensus, a little bit higher than than Joey's ranking. But let me ask you Joey, and I'm going to totally put you on the spot here. I don't know if you got your quarterback rankings pulled up. Jaden Daniels or Jackson Dart. Who do you prefer in drafts this year?
- [37:13]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
I have Dart as my QB5. I'm right. I'm in lockstep with you on Jackson Dart. It's just all the arrows point up for Jackson Dart. Like what has Washington done to this point to make you more confident in that offense? Have they brought in another like capable wide receiver one to play alongside Taylor McLaurin? Debo Samuel looks like he's leaving. I just haven't seen much to be excited for with Washington. And I love Rashad White, but it's not gonna move the needle up for Jane Daniels at all.
- [37:40]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Right? I mean, Rashad White to me is just the Austin Eckler replacement. And then Chicaconquo I think people are looking at that as the earth's replacement. But Bob Harris made a very good point when I was talking with him a couple weeks ago. He's more of the Debo Samuel replacement. Like they're going to scheme up touches to get the ball in Chicago's hands and let him create. But this does feel like just a worse version of the 2024 offense that we saw Daniels break out in. Now I think a lot of people are going to have this take because we didn't see it last year. The injuries piled up. There's just not a lot to be excited about. I think if he continues falling in drafts and settles in around your ranking at like QB8, I think at that point a lot of the risk is baked out of the cost and I'll start drafting him there. But where he's going off the board right now as a top five quarterback, that is a tough pill to swallow. I mean, you could say this about any of the top tight ends or quarterbacks, but you're drafting him pretty darn close to his ceiling. And what we've seen in fantasy over the last few years is that paying up for these top five quarterbacks rarely works out. Like, even if you are getting, you know, Josh Allen drafting him as a QB1 and he finishes at the QB1, you're not getting a huge sizable advantage between him and the QB2 and the QB3 and the QB4. So I think it's good practice to just avoid these quarterbacks at the top of the draft overall. And Jaden Daniels, with where he's going right now, it's it's tough to justify drafting him one last player.
- [38:56]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah, no, I'm just, I am like the weight on value quarterback guy. I said it during the Stafford part and I just don't see the value there with Daniels at qb, I mean you are taking him at his absolute ceiling. What have we seen from his career? We've only seen him finish as a QB4. That's the highest we've ever seen him finish and I just need to see more of it. And QB8 feels a lot safer for
- [39:17]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
me and that even if you look at that 20, 24 season, you know he was, he finished as a back end QB1, but he like wasn't giving you a lot of QB1 weeks. It was just kind of like consistently finishing as like a top 10 to top 15 quarterback. Did that for a full season and that got him there at the end of the year. But he didn't really have those like weak winning spike weeks that you want to see from a quarterback either. Of course he's young and he rushes and if they can make some little improvements, draft a wide receiver, then we can get a little bit more excited about him. But where it stands now, I'm completely with you, Joey. Now the last guy that I'm going to talk about and again we're doing this thing where we're kind of dogging on our own teams maybe to build some trust here. But Roma dunes a concerns me a little bit. I see he's going off the board right now as the wide receiver 17 like people are drafting this guy in round three or four as a high end wide receiver too. And I absolutely cannot get there. I talked earlier about DJ Moore about this Ben Johnson fit right that like he wants these players that can get open. He doesn't want to have receivers that are doing their own thing. He doesn't want to be reliant on 50, 50 balls. And I actually found a direct quote from him. I'm not, I'm not making this up. Here's a direct quote from Ben Johnson. I'm not a big guy on 50, 50 balls. You can look my track record of calling games. We like to get guys open more than just throwing it up for grabs. That's not what we want to be about. Roma Dunze not the best separator. He's a guy who lives on 50, 50 balls. If you watch his tape from Washington, if you watch what he's done through his first two years in the league, he isn't a separator, but he can go up and snag 50 and that just isn't really a part of the Ben Johnson philosophy. He is a contested catch specialist and he was drafted by the previous regime. So we saw that when Ben Johnson took over the Bears, the first thing he did was draft Colson Loveland and Luther Burden, two guys who are elite separators. So when I look at the history of these big bodied X receivers who kind of focus on contested catches in Ben Johnson offenses, it is not great. We got DJ Chark, Alan Robinson, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds and I know we saw that little bit early in the season last year where Roma Dun was crushing to start the season, but that's because his competition was DJ Moore who had been dealing with some injuries early in the season. We had Luther Burton and Colson Loveland who also dealing with injuries were also rookies. So I feel like there was just a little bit of chemistry with Caleb Williams and Roma Dunzane. He was just forcing balls to him early in the season. But as that season just matured a little bit and the rookies got their feet wet, we saw Roman Dunes of course dealing with a foot injury wasn't himself but dropping balls unable to separate. And we saw the offense started to focus around Luther Burton and Colson Loveland. So Matt Harmon likes to talk about the sacrificial X receiver. I think that's the fear here with Roma Dunes. They sure the ceiling is high. We're talking about a top 10 pick, a young player on a promising offense. There is a ceiling here, but he's getting drafted darn close to that already. And there is a trap door of a floor here where he is just running wind sprints and just opening up the underneath stuff for the other receivers. I think there's a ton of risk in drafting Roma Dunes this year.
- [42:22]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Yeah I if you look at the last 10 games of the season he finishes the wide receiver 52. He only averaged seven points a game. Like that's not good in PPR. Just news flash not good. And I think it's because we saw a Loveland breakout and we saw Burden. Like you say they were intentional to get him the ball. I think we see where the targets in this Bears offense are going to go now in the second half of the season for the Bears was very telling for me and listen, I had a very hard time moving off Roma Roma Dunes a last year I drafted him. He kind of came out the gates looking really great and that is one of the like most trappiest things that can happen in fantasy football. When you see it happen early and you're like, ah, it's going to happen again, it's going to happen again. And it never happened again.
- [43:06]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
Yeah, and, and I know a lot of people are going to point to the foot injury he was battling through. I believe it was a broken foot. Missed some time, came back, missed some more time, came back again. But as a Bears fan, I watch all these games closely. There were times where a dunes A was open and Caleb Williams put it on him and he just dropped it. Now, I, I don't, I'm not a doctor in physiology or anything like that, but I don't understand why a broken foot would be causing wide open drops. And we saw that last year as well. And it seemed like we, once that started to happen, we saw these big drops in big moments. Caleb Williams just stopped looking his way. So again, like, I'm not going to argue the ceiling. Roma Dun was drafted to be an elite wide receiver one and absolutely could take that step forward, but with how high he's going in drafts right now, it's the floor that worries me. And the floor is that this guy could end up being on waiver wires by the midway point of the season.
- [43:56]
Co-host (Joey Wright, Fantasy Football Analyst 2)
Absolutely.
- [43:57]
Host (Fantasy Football Analyst 1)
I want to thank everybody for taking the time to tune in today. Sorry we are a day late on this week's episode. I was celebrating my birthday a little bit too hard early in the week. But we will be back next Monday with Joey Wright. We've got other episodes coming at you this week. I've got Jeff Bell joining me tomorrow and then JJ Zacharison is going to be on the show on Friday to talk about some rookie breakouts and some potential year two breakouts as well. So as always, please, like subscribe, leave the reviews, comment on YouTube, all that good stuff that helps the show grow. Thank you so much for tuning in. We will see you soon.
- [44:41]
MyBookie Advertiser
If you're betting March Madness, you should be doing it at my bookie. This is the best betting stretch of the year. Upsets, buzzer, beaters. And if you're going to take your shot, you might as well take it where the payouts hit hard. Only at my bookie. You've got the Moneybag. Moneybag gives you boosted odds and juiced payouts on select games. Same picks, bigger potential returns. When you're staring at that Sweet 16 matchup or loading up a Final Four play, my bookie can turn a good hit into a great one. This isn't the week to sit back and wait. Lines are moving. Futures are tightening. The edge is right now. Head to mybookie.com ag use code nbaszn and get your first bet covered up to 500 bucks. If it misses, just activate your bet back bonus token and run it back. March only comes once. Bet it smart. Bet it big. Only at mybookie.