What Do We Know?

Summary

For Heaven's Sake Podcast: Episode Summary – "What Do We Know?"

Release Date: June 26, 2025
Hosts: Donniel Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi
Presented by: Ark Media and the Shalom Hartman Institute

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Introduction

In the episode titled "What Do We Know?", hosts Donniel Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi engage in a profound discussion reflecting on the recent 12-day conflict involving Israel and Gaza. The conversation delves into the complexities of warfare, the role of international alliances, and the political ramifications within Israel. By exploring what is known and what remains uncertain, the hosts aim to provide clarity amidst the chaos surrounding the ongoing conflict.

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The 12-Day War and Its Aftermath

Counting the Days and Human Toll

Donniel opens the episode by emphasizing the personal and national impact of the war, marking "day 628 to the beginning of the war" and highlighting the harrowing statistics of hostages and casualties. He states, “[00:55] Yossi Klein Halevi: The end of the 12 day war,” indicating the conclusion of a brief yet intense period of conflict.

Donniel reflects on the loss of seven soldiers, drawing parallels to past conflicts:
“…when we had Gaza operations and some Golani half track went over a mine and I think it was also seven.” ([01:30] Daniil Hartman)

Military Performance of Israel

Yossi lauds Israel's military prowess, describing the campaign as one of the most extraordinary in the nation's history:
“We gave this our absolute best. For 12 days, we had undisputed superiority in the skies of Iran.” ([06:31] Yossi Klein Halevi)

However, he expresses a critical perspective on the overall sufficiency of the victory:
“I know that it's not enough, the Six Day War, at least militarily, not politically.” ([08:45] Yossi Klein Halevi)

Donniel concurs, noting the strategic planning and execution but questioning the ultimate objectives and outcomes:
“…what we did know with a different hue. And we only have time. We had a list of about 15 of these.” ([13:30] Daniil Hartman)

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The American Bombing of Iranian Facilities

Coordination and Execution

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the controversial American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Donniel reveals coordination between Israeli forces and the United States:
“…the Israeli air force preceded them and cleared the way to make sure that there were no existing anti aircraft missile.” ([17:35] Daniil Hartman)

Yossi highlights the unprecedented nature of this military action:
“…America has never bombed a Nuclear facility. We're the only ones who did that.” ([19:00] Yossi Klein Halevi)

Uncertainties and Consequences

Both hosts express uncertainty regarding the extent of the damage inflicted and the long-term implications:
“…significant damage occurred in a number of the facilities. Something. Something was achieved anywhere from the spectrum of light damage to very extensive damage to complete destruction somewhere in that spectrum.” ([22:42] Daniil Hartman)

Donniel raises concerns about the disappearance of over 400 kilograms of weapons-grade enriched uranium:
“...there’s over 400 kilo of weapons grade enriched uranium that has disappeared, that nobody knows where it is.” ([27:35] Yossi Klein Halevi)

Yossi adds, reflecting on the psychological impact on the region:
“…the profound psychological impact of America's move on the region, on the regime, first of all, and on the Arab world.” ([19:37] Yossi Klein Halevi)

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Implications for Netanyahu's Government

Public Perception and Polling

The hosts transition to discussing Prime Minister Netanyahu's political standing in the wake of the conflict. Despite military successes, Netanyahu faces diminishing public support:
“…the Likud Party has increased from 22 seats to 26 seats. And for the first time now in since November 2024, it beats a potential Bennett party.” ([34:19] Yossi Klein Halevi)

However, the coalition remains fragile, with internal divisions evident in the polling numbers:
“In both polls, the Bennett party is 24. It used to be... but even though his party has grown, even though again also and in polls which speak about who is your preferred candidate for prime minister, who do you trust the most? Netanyahu has also overtaken Bennett for the first time, but his coalition doesn't change.” ([35:20] Yossi Klein Halevi)

Donniel summarizes the challenge:
“What we know is that Israeli society knows that they don't know and as a result Netanyahu is not receiving the... the public isn't buying it, I know that.” ([32:52] Daniil Hartman)

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Broader Implications and Future Outlook

The Role of Pundits and Information Uncertainty

Donniel criticizes the reliability of pundits and media in delivering accurate information:
“…the abundance of what people know to be not only dishonest, I think it's misleading because it's misleading to the moment that we're in right now.” ([05:20] Daniil Hartman)

The hosts emphasize their commitment to honesty and clarity, contrasting their approach with that of pundits:
“We don't claim facts to that same degree. And so to try to create some clarity...” ([06:31] Daniil Hartman)

Potential for Regime Change and Its Consequences

Yossi reflects on the historical challenges of regime change, drawing from his experience in Eastern Europe:
“…I spent a year reporting on regime change in eastern Europe in 1989, 1990, going from one form domino to the other.” ([30:38] Yossi Klein Halevi)

Both hosts express skepticism about the effectiveness of regime change, acknowledging its messy and often counterproductive nature:
“We know that regime change is always bad. We don't know that.” ([30:10] Yossi Klein Halevi)

Looking Ahead

As the episode concludes, the hosts acknowledge the lingering uncertainties and the need for ongoing dialogue:
“...we have to talk this again. There's so many reports about peace that some ceasefire agreements are coming or not going. We chose not to talk about that today…” ([37:00] Daniil Hartman)

Donniel encapsulates the emotional and intellectual journey of the discussion:
“…the foundation of a democracy is talking about what we know. Truth matters. Facts matter. You don't make up facts. And when you don't know, you say you don't know.” ([37:00] Daniil Hartman)

Yossi offers a final reflection, balancing gratitude with uncertainty:
“Despite all the caveats that we've raised... I still am enormously grateful to the state of Israel, even to the government.” ([38:09] Yossi Klein Halevi)

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Notable Quotes

• Donniel Hartman [00:55]: “Today there's really only one or maybe two numbers. Today's day, 628 to the beginning of the war and to the hostages who are still in Gaza.”

• Yossi Klein Halevi [06:31]: “We gave this our absolute best. For 12 days, we had undisputed superiority in the skies of Iran.”

• Yossi Klein Halevi [19:00]: “America has never bombed a Nuclear facility. We're the only ones who did that.”

• Donniel Hartman [22:42]: “Something was achieved anywhere from the spectrum of light damage to very extensive damage to complete destruction somewhere in that spectrum.”

• Yossi Klein Halevi [30:38]: “I spent a year reporting on regime change in eastern Europe in 1989, 1990, going from one form domino to the other.”

• Donniel Hartman [37:00]: “The foundation of a democracy is talking about what we know. Truth matters. Facts matter. You don't make up facts. And when you don't know, you say you don't know.”

• Yossi Klein Halevi [38:09]: “Despite all the caveats that we've raised... I still am enormously grateful to the state of Israel, even to the government.”

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Conclusion

In "What Do We Know?", Donniel Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi navigate the tumultuous landscape of recent military actions and their profound implications for Israel and its leadership. By dissecting known facts and acknowledging the vast unknowns, the hosts underscore the complexities of modern warfare and governance. Their candid dialogue serves as a call for transparency and informed discourse, urging listeners to seek clarity amidst uncertainty.

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For more insights and detailed discussions, subscribe to the For Heaven's Sake Podcast on YouTube or access the episodes through the provided podcast feed.

Transcript

[Daniil Hartman]

You are listening to an art media podcast. Hi, friends. This is Daniil Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi from the Sholem Hartman Institute. And this is our podcast, for Heaven's Sake, Israel at War, a podcast which is a collaboration of the Sholem Hartman Institute on Archimedia. Last podcast, last two, a special episode. We had lots of numbers. Countdown is changing. The numbers are changing. Today there's really only one or maybe two numbers. Today's day, 628 to the beginning of the war and to the hostages who are still in Gaza. And the other number is 50. There's 50 left. 20 alive. 30.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

The end of the 12 day war.

[Daniil Hartman]

And it's the end. We don't have to count that day anymore. Maybe we're starting to count the days since the end of the 12 Day War. And before we get into today's theme, we're really excited to announce that in addition to being able to listen to the two of us speak each week, our listeners are now able to also see us. We have just launched a video version of our podcast on YouTube. Really excited about that. Again, we don't do personal conversations here, but we do have to talk about how you dress, Elsie.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I'm really glad you noticed that, Daniil. You know, I spend so much time on my wardrobe and so there's something gratifying grooming your beard as well. Yes, and there's something gratifying for that to be noticed.

[Daniil Hartman]

So it's the least I could do. Listen, now we're going to see our voices were connected. Now people are going to see the two of us and we could wear.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Matching shirts like a boy's band.

[Daniil Hartman]

I think that might be a little much. But in any event, I was told to read this to you, that you can search for us on this YouTube. We now have a YouTube channel. It's called the FHS Podcast, which is For Heaven's Sake Podcast on YouTube. You can also use the link in the show Notes. You can subscribe to our channel, share it with others, and we'll typically release our video episodes a day after the audio version appears on the podcast feed. And even though we barely listened to our own podcast, I'm wondering now whether we'll I may peek our own egos or narcissism will like just to take a look at what we look like might be. But in any event, you know, we're even. There's a little levity, but the truth is there really shouldn't be any levity today. Today's a day in which seven Soldiers were killed in Gaza seven. And I remember in the past when we had Gaza operations and some Golani half track went over a mine and I think it was also seven. The war came to an end. Yeah, seven used to be a big number. And in our tradition, any life which is taken as if you destroy a whole world and today were killed. And we're going to have to talk about the war in Gaza and where it's going, and it's going to need its own podcast. But for today, I want to remember them and realize and recognize that our soldiers are still in tremendous danger in Gaza. And the whole reality of Gaza for our soldiers, for Gazans is just something that. We're going to have to come talk about that again in our other countdowns. It sort of, it was pushed aside and you forgot, but it's coming back. And we want to use the fact that today, despite what happened in Gaza, just the pace of change, the pace of events, the pace of running in and out of shelters, it just has slowed down and it gives us a chance to breathe. And as a result, we're calling today's podcast what We Know and what We Don't Know. Because as people who are following so carefully everything that's happening, the airwaves and social media are filled with pundits who everything about them is they know. And so we've been collecting and reading all these people, what they know and everything that they know is usually only true for between five minutes to 12 minutes to maybe a day, 24 hours. And I find all of this abundance of what people know to be not only dishonest, I think it's misleading because it's misleading to the moment that we're in right now. Because where we are is where there are things that we know and we should try to figure out what they are. Because not everything, it's not everything we don't know. There are things that we know, but there's also a lot of things that we don't know. And I want to go through this with you, Yossi, because I need that clarity myself. I mean, there's so everybody's talking and why they're talking and their political agendas and every. It's just, I think people are going crazy, frankly. I think actually people, they're going insane as events are changing and nobody ever asks a pundit to give an accounting for what they said they knew that they were wrong for. Like, no one ever fires pundits. I want to know, why don't you fire them? So since we're not pundits. We talk about what we understand at any given moment, never claiming more. We talk about what we believe and we talk about our take on our people and our country and our world. We don't claim facts to that same degree. And so to try to create some clarity, there's a whole list of issues that we want to talk about from the war in Iran, the American bombing, state of Israel, and world. We'll get to that list and we'll see as much as we can do. But I think all of us need some more clarity. So what we know and what we don't know. And let's start with the war itself, you know, the 12 Day War, which is now one day over as you look back on it. What are not a whole big list, like, what is it that you know about the war? Like, what could you pocket? And what is it that you know that you don't know?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Yeah. Yeah. You know, I don't really trust myself right now because if you had asked me a few days ago and we, you did ask me a few days.

[Daniil Hartman]

Ago.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I, I thought I knew that this was the most extraordinary victory that Israel has achieved, maybe since 1973, maybe. Maybe. Maybe ever. And I thought that the American bombing was an unequivocal success. And today, I don't know.

[Daniil Hartman]

What do you know anymore? Starting from the Israel side?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

What I know is that we outdid ourselves. We, the Air Force, the Mossad, performed to the absolute limits of what we were capable of. We gave this our absolute best. For 12 days, we had undisputed superiority in the skies of Iran. In 12 days, we didn't lose a single plane, a single pilot, a single Mossad agent. They built a drone factory there and they got away with it. Now, you know, now Iran, the regime is rounding up what they call Israeli spies. They've arrested 700 people. The last that I saw, these are people who most likely went on social media to express their support. And I, and I saw these extraordinary clips of heroic and suicidal Iranians saying, we just don't care anymore. And we support.

[Daniil Hartman]

Oh, so those are the Mossad agents?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Yeah, those are the people that, that I imagine these are the people they're rounding up.

[Daniil Hartman]

You don't know that, though.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I don't. Right. So you know, the, the. So what I do know is that this was one of the most extraordinary military performances in, in Israeli history for sure.

[Daniil Hartman]

What don't you know about this? Just about the Israeli side of the world, we'll come to the American bombing in A moment.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Well, I want to say one more thing that I think I do know at this point.

[Daniil Hartman]

Go for it. Yeah.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Which is, despite that, you know, it's being compared to the Six Day War. All right, it happened. It was twice as long. Nevertheless, we also had a lot greater distance to cross and the obstacles were more formidable than the Six Day War. But what I feel, I know is that it's not enough, the Six Day War, at least militarily, not politically. The Six Day War, militarily, was a decisive victory.

[Daniil Hartman]

So it's interesting you're saying it's not that I don't know if it was enough. You're saying, I know. I do know that it was not enough.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I feel that. I know that. And when you gauge the mood among Israelis today, on the one hand, there's tremendous pride here, a deep sense of satisfaction, on the other hand, that's it. You mean to tell me that we had mastery over Iranian airspace for 12 days and the results are still inconclusive? That's very sober.

[Daniil Hartman]

That's sober.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So what do you know?

[Daniil Hartman]

It's very similar to yours, but there's a certain edge to it. I know, like you, that our army is unbelievably brave and our army is unbelievably skilled. I know that a category that you had, which you taught me, and that's the category of deterrence, has again been reinforced. When we could fly over Iran that way, Gulf nations, people are asking, should I be with Israel? Does Israel. Are you back? I know. I know that there is, which is.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

How peace is made in the Middle East.

[Daniil Hartman]

In the Middle east, there's something. I know that there's something very impressive. But at the same time, I do know that this was executed to the table. There was a bank of targets. Everything was set up in advance. This was planned. There was a strategy, all done. What I do know, or don't know, similar to you, is whether we really even had a strategy to take out the nuclear sites. I'm watching and looking and collecting all the information. We were talking all along. We'll do it alone. We'll do it alone. You know, for eight out of the 12 days, we spoke about the great achievement of the fact that we're flying unhindered over the skies of Tehran. Or do you know how many times the word unprecedented was used? It's like there's the unprecedented bombing campaign. The unprecedented. Unprecedented. So all of the. But what was their plan? I don't know anymore.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Yeah.

[Daniil Hartman]

If we really had a detailed plan, unless the plan was to count on America.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Right.

[Daniil Hartman]

Unless the whole thing was planned in advance, which I don't know, it seems.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Right. You mean together with.

[Daniil Hartman]

Together with Trump. Whether that was the plan, as we say in Hebrew from the outset. But that would be very strange because here it is. That means we didn't go to war alone. That means America supported us going to war. That means the whole claim that we pulled Trump into our war, so that would be false. And I must be more relaxed saying Israel and the United States had a plan to work in cohorts with each other and we tricked the world.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Look how quickly we've transitioned from what we know to what we don't know.

[Daniil Hartman]

Right. Bethesda. We just don't know. Because right now, you just don't know. We're going to come to what the consequence of the bombing in a second, which is even more. I don't. But there's something humbling, and I even want to turn it back to you a moment, because for so long, the debate between us was not really, should we bomb or shouldn't we bomb? Was to what extent? If we don't have the ability to win, should we embark on a campaign? And just last week I thought, oh, yeah, look. Look what we did on the first day, the second day, the third day, even before America came in, I was so impressed. But now I'm looking and asking, seriously, what the f were we even thinking about? Could I use that term? I won't go any further than that.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Well, Trump used it, so go for plan.

[Daniil Hartman]

So, like, what, that we. Okay, we finally got the clock in Palestine Square. Like, did you ever see. Did you see a picture of that clock? It looks. I don't want to say it's a screen. It's a third world digital little thing with pictures, and it's just not even an impress. Like, I thought maybe they would build this huge hourglass thing that would be. And we were going to bomb it. I don't even think we bombed it. And we didn't even get it. But, like, there were huge successes.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

But are you sure? Because I don't know that I saw a picture. You know that.

[Daniil Hartman]

No, I will say, in the spirit of today's podcast, I will say, I.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Don'T know that, because I've been quoting.

[Daniil Hartman]

You, by the way, because I saw a report on it. But one report, I never trust one report. I usually try to have five reports before I speak of moderate.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

If we failed to take out the Doomsday Clock. That's a very grim metaphor. For this operation.

[Daniil Hartman]

But like even look at the way we're talking right now, it could be that, you know, we'll have to put inside here the American perspective. But Israel's side, now I think I know why also we didn't start with the nuclear reactors because if we started with the nuclear reactors, Iran's missile attacks against us would have been horrific. We actually spent the first day not just clearing out the skies, but in days after day limiting as quickly as possible their ability to fire missiles. And it was still very extensive.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Okay, but this is important.

[Daniil Hartman]

So there seems to have been a plan.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Pause on that for a moment because that's something that we know that's correct. We know that the plan was hit the launchers and their missile supply and that was stunningly successful. And we saw that in the way that as the war went on they were able to send fewer and fewer missiles. When they sent, they sent one missile one night and I woke up my wife Sarah and she said, you're waking me up for one missile.

[Daniil Hartman]

Yeah, because one missile we can handle. So there seems to have been a plan. And when they attacked the nuclear reactors was after the damage to Israel could be diminished. So it could be that it was actually a huge master plan. But then that master plan, what I don't know, did it include the United States, did it not? And if it didn't, what does that mean? But the other thing we also do know, and we should state this, is that with all of our tremendous victory, they were still able to fire missiles. And even when they could fire five.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Missiles, we didn't get all of them.

[Daniil Hartman]

One of them got through, we didn't.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Get all of them.

[Daniil Hartman]

And actually the numbers that we said we were going to get, 5%, we said we used to get in now was closer to 15%. And towards the end of the war more and more. So we don't know for example if we had enough arrow missiles. Iran had the ability to harm us with all of our victory and there's no doubt that we reigned supreme. But Iran wasn't dead. Iran didn't lie down. And even with all the only thing they could use, they had no proxies. It wasn't their navy, it wasn't their ground forces. All they had was a dramatically diminished missile capability and they were still able to really harm us. And the extent of damage in this 12 day war to Israel's society, to Israeli infrastructure was greater than the damage of 628 days of the Gaza war with all the bombing of the Houthis and Hezbollah, all of them together in 12 days. And so Iran, while it can't claim victory even though it will, was still able to harm us. And that's another thing that we know. We're sitting on this knowing and not knowing. Is there one other part?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Here's something else that we know, which is that when the army was mapping out scenarios of what would happen to the home front in the event of an Israeli Iranian war, the numbers of casualties were in the thousands. I've heard figures between 10 and 20,000 that they were expecting.

[Daniil Hartman]

I heard hundreds of deaths and we were in the tens of deaths.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So this is really something that we also need to factor in. But here again, what does that mean? Is it a victory? Because it was 28 deaths instead of 10,000.

[Daniil Hartman]

But it means that we all said.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

There has to be a response. Yes, I think it was. I think it was.

[Daniil Hartman]

So here it is for now. And what we know and don't know throughout today's podcast is going to change every day. Let's shift to what we know and don't know about America's bombing, about the B2s, about this miraculous sortie. One moment in these 37 hours round trip, tricked the world came in, was done in coordination with Israel. Not interesting, not reported in American channels, but reported in Israel that before they went in, the Israeli air force preceded them and cleared the way to make sure that there were no existing anti aircraft missile.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I didn't know that. But you do know that.

[Daniil Hartman]

I just know that that was reported. And again, part of our problem as we shift to America, this part is we don't know anymore. Even when someone tells you something, forget that it's a news site because we don't know if truth and facts matter in all of this. But let' swhat do you know about the American bombing and what don't you know? Let's just try to make some order because this is hailed as the, that was the moment. Being able to bomb any building we wanted in Tehran wasn't the purpose of the war. The purpose of the war was to destroy or to significantly delay the capacity of Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. The job was also to diminish and harm their missile capabilities, ballistic missile capabilities, but that was good for the short run. But in the long run that's easily replenished. The strategic issue wasn't their missile capability. It is the nuclear weapons capability. What do you know?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So the first thing we know, Daniil, is to borrow your word, it was unprecedented. America has never bombed a Nuclear facility. We're the only ones who did that.

[Daniil Hartman]

That's right.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

And we've done it three times now. And we did it in Iraq, in Syria, and now, of course, Iran. And America has now shifted its policy. It has now bombed a nuclear reactor. What? I think I know.

[Daniil Hartman]

You know that America has shifted its policy.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Well, it just did.

[Daniil Hartman]

No, you know that America did something. I don't know if there's a shift in policy.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

In other words, we don't know if they would do it again.

[Daniil Hartman]

Exactly.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Yes, that's right.

[Daniil Hartman]

I'm enjoying being Socrates, like you, because, you know, this is what Socrates does. That's the essence of the Socratic move. Socrates in his life, meets the people who claim to know, because in his youth, he has this dream that he's the wisest man of all. And he says, how could I be the wisest man of all? I don't know anything. And his whole life's journey and all the Socratic dialogues are an attempt where Socrates. Socrates meets the people of knowledge and says, you know, what is it that you know? And they tell him what they know. And through his questions and back and forth, he proves to them that they don't know till the end of his. At the end of his life, he recognizes that he is the wisest man because he's the only one who knows that he doesn't know. So I'm enjoying being a little Socratic on you. I apologize if it's nudji. And at some point you could tell me, daniil, stop it already. That's okay.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

But, you know, I wonder what it'll sound like when we apply the Socratic method to Trump's pronouncements. But we'll get there in a moment. But the other thing that I think I know again here I'm on knowing, not knowing ground, is the profound psychological impact of America's move on the region, on the regime, first of all, and on the Arab world. I think that America's posture has substantially changed. Trump's posture has changed. There was a derogatory nickname that they were applying to that he's the guy who doesn't. Who always chickens out. Is it a taco or something?

[Daniil Hartman]

Yeah, yeah, I think that was some acronym.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Yeah. I don't know what it stands for, but yeah.

[Daniil Hartman]

Something about all he talks and then chickens out or something.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Ah, yeah.

[Daniil Hartman]

T, A, C, H, something.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Taco. That's it.

[Daniil Hartman]

Something.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Excellent.

[Daniil Hartman]

Oh, that would work. Oh, he was furious when. And I, you know, someone asked that to him. Could you imagine how vulgar it is to even ask that. It's like, anyway. But okay, so he wasn't a taco.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

What we know of Trump is that that slur must have so deeply grated on him that it might have factored in. In his decision to attack.

[Daniil Hartman]

I'll give him more credit.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Look, I don't know.

[Daniil Hartman]

That'S pushing it.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

But okay, so, all right, so now while we're on the topic of Trump, again, I don't know, but I think I know that his pronouncements about the attack are less than 100% accurate. Did he totally obliterate Fordow? It doesn't seem so. And that Israelis sent inspectors into Fordow to examine the damage. And I think I know that we didn't send our people into a live reactor that was smoldering. I have a feeling we didn't do that. So when I hear his pronouncements, what I do know is that I don't know if they're true.

[Daniil Hartman]

Okay, I'll tell you what I do know. I do know, as you said, I do know that America bombed.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

All right? I do know that's the beginning.

[Daniil Hartman]

It's the beginning. I do know that significant damage occurred in a number of the facilities. Something. Something was achieved anywhere from the spectrum of light damage to very extensive damage to complete destruction somewhere in that spectrum. Where in that spectrum, we don't know. I do know that I'm very grateful for America for doing this. I do know that this was an American interest. I do know that it was critical. Now that I also know that Israel truly, with all of its talk, couldn't do it on its own. We just couldn't do it on our own. I don't know if it was enough. I do know that America said, that's why I asked you. They changed their policy. I don't know if they changed their policy because a commitment to destroy a nuclear Iran is not about having one. Sortie.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Yeah.

[Daniil Hartman]

It's about a campaign. And I respect very much a president and an American desire not to be engaged in either regime change or protracted wars. You know, if you are an American and you look back at Iraq and Afghanistan and Kuwait, it's just there were so many wars, you know, even you go back to Vietnam that you could go back to World War II, which was something else. But there were so many wars that America's been engaged in for decades as it saw itself as the policeman of the world, and they never worked. And the numbers of American casualties are just. Are humongous. And a president who Says, I don't want to do that. I don't want to be a part of that. I might feel frustrated about it when it comes to us and our need for having America. But I can understand that America was saying, if you want to go to war, let's have a clear idea, just like we have in Gaza, about what our strategies are, what's our exit strategy, what do we really want to achieve and is it achievable, and are we willing to pay the price? But to be pulled into things without knowing an end is. I can understand that that's something that an American president, an American citizen, can say. I want to be much more cautious. I feel the same thing about Israel. Why shouldn't Americans feel that way? Part of my critique about Gaza was, what was our exit show do you want to do? And so I respect that. I do know that America proved that it could engage in an act of war without being drawn into a war.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

That was crucial for Trump in relation to his constituency, which was very skeptical.

[Daniil Hartman]

But even I could even say without foreign entanglement, even without being the pundits who now know all of the American Republican constituency, I can understand the logic of it, the humility that it requires. But what I don't know to the degree that we could celebrate is whether, even without going to a full war and not talking about regime change, and as President Trump himself said, I don't want to do regime change. That just creates so much chaos. And that's what America's learned. Every time you have regime change, you end up getting worse. And, you know, like, what are you gaining even? But whether this is enough. I know America stood up. I know America's capabilities, I do now know, are unique. I know America took a step. I don't know if whether a step is enough. And, you know, you mentioned that President Trump stated that Israeli resources went into Fordeau and affirmed total destruction within an hour. One of the senior ministers in the Israel Security Cabinet said no Israeli was there. So part of what I do know is that everybody's talking out of left field. And I do know that there's absolute, total contradictions. Anyway, one says Israel says that we destroyed another one. The AP says they just spoke to Israel sources and they're doubtful. It's just everything is being thrown out. So I do know that nobody knows. And that's humbling and scary. It is scary. I do know that it will take some time. And so maybe, you know, we're going to have to give it patience. Maybe the results are far Greater. I don't need to now be cynical about them. But we do know that we don't know and that after this initial moment that, wow, what could withstand the 30,000 pound bunker blaster? It has some acronym. 14 of them were fired at Fordeau. And we don't know. And I think part of what I do know, I would say, is that I know that it doesn't seem like America has an appetite to do more of this. And that has a lot of implications for the next stage.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Absolutely. And especially since one of the things that we do know is that there's over 400 kilo of weapons grade enriched uranium that has disappeared, that nobody knows where it is. What we know is that we don't know. And the only ones who do know where it is, apparently, are the Iranians.

[Daniil Hartman]

Are the Iranians. And so part of what we also do know as a result of the bombing, not only Israel's bombing, is that Iran's not gone. Their army's still in place. The Ayatollah regime, the Revolutionary Guard are still there. And we do know that they're not running. It's not like they're waving a white flag and saying, oh, please, let's negotiate now. I can't breathe anymore. You know the principle of there is no peace, which doesn't start with power. I do know that the Iranians don't seem to be devastated. They might be frightened in their own private rooms. There might be much more chaos. But this was not a Hezbollah.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

No, and my guess is we didn't.

[Daniil Hartman]

Do a Hezbollah, Moshe.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

No, no. My guess is that we knew that going into this, that they would not raise a white flag. We also knew that there would not be instant regime change. And again, we don't know what's happening within public opinion in Iran, but it seems that much of the population is instinctively rallying around the regime. As an initial response, our country is under assault. Iranians are no less patriotic than we are. But that's the initial response. And what we don't know, but what I'm hoping for, but that's not one of the categories I know. Okay, so how shall I phrase it? What I would like to know.

[Daniil Hartman]

Is.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Just officially, you're pushing it.

[Daniil Hartman]

I am pushing, but okay, go for it.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I'll let you that what this 12 day war in retrospect will be seen as having achieved is the beginning of the erosion of the people's trust in the solidity.

[Daniil Hartman]

This is what you would like to know, but. Yes, but now you've really added a Category.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

It's a whole new category of prayer.

[Daniil Hartman]

Which doesn't belong, I hope, my aspiration, my fantasy. I'm gonna put a limit on it, but I let you put it. But let's go to.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

But I do want to go back to something that you did say about regime change, which is that we know that regime change is always bad. We don't know that.

[Daniil Hartman]

We don't. And I said that it's always messy.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

It's always messy. Yes.

[Daniil Hartman]

And it. But most, more often than not, doesn't really work. Regime change, who you get in place and all of the above.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

I, you know, I spent. I spent a year reporting on regime change in eastern Europe in 1989, 1990, going from one form domino to the other. Okay, now you actually have a fact now. So I do know that regime sometimes really does.

[Daniil Hartman]

Fair enough. And you know what? That's really important. Don't always be so skeptical. And so here it is, what we know and don't know about the war. And we're still very hopeful. We're not being critical. But as days pass, what we don't know is painting what we did know with a different hue. And we only have time. We had a list of about 15 of these.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

That's amazing. We haven't even begun.

[Daniil Hartman]

We haven't even begun. But we have to add one more for today. And what do we know about the state of the Netanyahu government in light of this war? Like, here it is. Netanyahu, who is the prime Minister of war. I would call. He's the prime minister of war and economic vitality. That was his identity, his calling card, which was profoundly damaged in October 7th. I am not the prime minister of security. I'm not the prime minister of military strategy. You know, Israel's economy seems to still be doing, you know, quite well. The dollars being devalued in the Shekel, despite the unbelievable expenditures. So it's like there's something going on. But what do you know about Netanyahu? Not even his government, the coalition. What does this mean? Is there anything we know about this?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So let me venture to offer a contradictory observation, which is that what I think we know is that Netanyahu thought the morning of the end of the war that this was an unequivocal victory for Israel, and this is the moment to go to elections. And what he thinks today is maybe not.

[Daniil Hartman]

Maybe not. You know, Netanyahu, as he speaks about the war, speaks very differently than you and I, because you and I, we're not politicians, and we're just talking about what we know and what we don't know. He posits himself as the one who knows. And his declarations in one press conference after another of we have exceeded all, achieved all of our goals.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

The public isn't buying it, I know that.

[Daniil Hartman]

But you could see his language.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

The polls show it.

[Daniil Hartman]

So this is what's interesting, is that you would think Netanyahu is the same. It's the same speech, it's the same tone, the same certainty. There's nothing that you know or don't. It's all, everything is wonderful and Trump is the greatest friend of Israel and we've never had more cooperation. And look, you know, no one could deliver Trump more than me. And all of the above. And still, you know, Trump screams at him.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So that's something else we know is that no American president has ever spoken to the prime minister of Israel in such a demeaning and vulgar way as.

[Daniil Hartman]

Trump to Netanyahu or maybe and got away with it. And the prime minister of Israel said, yes, sir, but as it pertains to his government, and we're not getting into the relationship of Israel and the United States right now, we don't have the time. But one thing we do know, and has already been two of the more reputable poles, each one saying the same thing, that the Likud Party has increased from 22 seats to 26 seats. And for the first time now in since November 2024, it beats a potential Bennett party, this mythic unknown party who Israelis flock to, because we don't know what it is exactly yet. It just is a party of healing and unity and decency on a party of one man. So far, we don't even know whose list is. But that party, for now a year and a half, has been the largest party in any potential election, which says.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So much about the confusion in the.

[Daniil Hartman]

Israeli public, in the Israeli public. But so it went to Netanyahu is now 26, and in both polls, the Bennett party is 24. It used to be. Bennett was 25, 26, his party and Netanyahu. I'm coming to the bat. The 21 and Netanyahu was at ranging from 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, depending on the day. But even though his party has grown, even though again also and in polls which speak about who is your preferred candidate for prime minister, who do you trust the most? Netanyahu has also overtaken Bennett for the first time, but his coalition doesn't change. His coalition, which now has 68 seats in large measure because of Gidon Saar and the fictitious seats that he collected from the defections from the defections from other sides. In fact, his coalition doesn't pass 50. It's one pole has out of 120 seats. When one poll it's 48. In another pool it's 49.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

And this is after the 12 day war.

[Daniil Hartman]

After the 12 day war there's been no shift and the opposition is at 61 or 62 without the five seats of Mansour Abbas which they say they don't want to have.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

So in other words, Netanyahu is taking votes from the farther right.

[Daniil Hartman]

That's right. Actually the one who goes down is Ben Kvir. Ben Veer goes down and the Likud Party takes some seats from Lieberman. But the coalition itself altogether the Democrats are very strong that it's still he's not closer after what is ostensibly the greatest victory. So it seems. What do we know? What we know is that Israeli society knows that they don't know and as a result Netanyahu is not receiving the.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Hero'S welcome or and we know that Israeli society, after 17 years of Netanyahu, a majority wants a change.

[Daniil Hartman]

So let's just to bring this to a conclusion for today. And there's so many other things and you know, I would love to be able to continue this if we have the time in our future podcast. But so often what we pick like today we felt that we could breathe a little bit and it was a time for just, you know, in Hebrew it's like a Din v' cheshbon. How do you say? It's like an accounting of where do we stand? Just like count, like where are we? And we just began to touch the surface. There's so many other issues that we have to talk about and hopefully we can unless some central issue and without doubt one of the most important questions that we have to put on the table. But we chose not to do this today. And that is what do we know and what do we don't know about the war in Gaza and the effect of Iran on the war in Gaza?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

We have to do this.

[Daniil Hartman]

We have to talk this again. There's so many reports about that a peace that some ceasef agreements are coming or not going. We chose not to talk about that today because to say that, you know, anything is really foolish, you know, and people could say, but nobody knows. And the fact that somebody speaks to some politician off the record and that makes you a qualified pundit doesn't mean anything. Nobody knows we do know that something is happening. We do know that the status quo might be changing, but we're going to wait a week for that. But. So this is what we know and this is what we don't know. And on the one hand, it's comforting to know what you know and what you don't know. But it's also very unsettling, the level of uncertainty just in our conversation. You know, I feel better. I don't know how our audience is going to feel from this conversation. I don't know if it's. If people on the political right are going to get angry and people on the political left. But the foundation of a democracy is talking about what we know. Truth matters. Facts matter. You don't make up facts. And when you don't know, you say you don't know. And for me, this was important. Any concluding thoughts for yourself?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Here's what I know about myself at this moment. Despite all the caveats that we've raised, important caveats that have emerged in the last couple of days, I still am enormously grateful to the state of Israel, even to the government. And it hurts me to say it, but to the army and the Air Force and the Mossads for this extraordinary achievement. And I'm grateful to America. I'm grateful to Trump for having taken the initiative and for making the statement that this isn't only Israel's fight, this isn't only Israel's concern. Stopping a nuclear Iran is an existential need ultimately for the region and therefore for the world. And so when I weigh what I know, what I don't know, the fears that have emerged in the last couple days, I know that I'm still grateful that this has happened.

[Daniil Hartman]

Okay. Whether what has happened? We don't know.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Well, I don't know what happened, but I'm grateful for whatever it is, whatever it is.

[Daniil Hartman]

You'll see. A pleasure being with you. Great to be with you and friends. This is, for heaven's sake, Israel at War Day 628 and May there be some more clarity. Or there may be. There'll be more uncertainty in the days to come, God willing. We're going to resume our regular schedule of taping on Tuesdays, releasing, God willing, on Wednesdays if all goes well. But if events continue to change the way they are, we'll. We'll tape accordingly. Thank you, Yossi, and thank you for listening.