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Today I’m joined by Susan Cook-Patton, Lead Reforestation Scientist at The Nature Conservancy, to get into the weeds on applying science to forest carbon investment decision making. In this conversation, Susan breaks down what “durability” really means in practice—how risks vary by location, project type, and species, and why investors should be assessing likelihood, severity, and the probability of regrowth. She shares how her team is developing tools and maps to help investors quickly identify higher- and lower-risk landscapes, bringing greater certainty to carbon outcomes under future climate conditions. We talk project design choices that can reduce wildfire impacts, the role (and limitations) of buffer pools, and emerging alternatives like permanence trust funds and storage years. Susan also shares where remote sensing is improving fast—and why data sharing may be the biggest unlock for better, cheaper carbon accounting.

“It’s not about eliminating all risks. It’s about understanding them so you can plan appropriately and put compensation mechanisms in place if disturbances do occur.”

00:10 — Welcome to Forest Invest + today’s guest

00:30 — Icebreaker: Susan’s favourite tree (and why caterpillars matter)

01:16 — Who Susan is + her role at The Nature Conservancy (TNC)

02:27 — What “reforestation” really means (working forests, conservation, agroforestry)

03:05 — Applying science to forest carbon investment decisions

04:43 — Durability 101: why risk varies by place, species, and project type

06:36 — Mapping risk: likelihood, severity, and probability of regrowth

09:00 — Social context: designing projects communities actually want

10:12 — Project design for resilience: species choice, density, thinning, prescribed fire

11:55 — Buffer pools: minimums vs risk-based contributions

13:08 — Beyond buffer pools: trust funds, stacking strategies, “ton-year” approaches

15:54 — Monitoring innovation: shifting from field plots to remote monitoring

16:53 — Remote sensing challenges: uncertainty, benchmarks, and inconsistent methods

20:08 — Terrestrial laser scanning: better carbon estimates (and how to use it wisely)

22:08 — Data sharing as the big unlock (and reducing duplicated fieldwork)

23:42 — Standards are evolving: learning fast without “throwing the baby out”

26:44 — “Permanent” vs “durability”: making rules fit how forests really work

29:40 — Portfolio thinking: balancing approaches across climate action

32:21 — Output vs durability: designing for short-term volume or long-term resilience

34:37 — Investor time horizons vs climate timescales (why storage years help)

40:06 — Science in policy: how Susan’s work spans local to global decision-making

42:19 — Carbon insurance: what it can teach us about actuarial risk in forests

44:26 — What’s next: durability risk maps + Susan’s “magic wand” wishlist

47:44 — Final takeaway: the greatest risk is inaction

48:42 — One actionable advice for new forest investors

49:28 — Where to learn more (LinkedIn + nature.org) + closing remarks

50:12 — Outro: see you next time on Forest Invest

Founding Director and Host: Shauna Matkovich - The ForestLink

Producer and Editor: Magdalena Laas - Unscripted Creatives

Nature by MaxKoMusic/Soundcloud

Sopwell Woodlands and Scohaboy Bog SAC, Cloughjordan, Co Tipperary, IRELAND by wild_rumpus/Soundcloud

Ambient Documentary by Sound Guru (Pixabay)

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Science-Backed Forest Carbon Investing with Susan Cook-Patton