Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding.

We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows.

We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

06:36 Overhedged Market Setup

11:51 Why Volatility Misfires

15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets

18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals

22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor

29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds

40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation

47:04 AI Compute Still Booming

55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics

59:12 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing