Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.

This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.

We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check

07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce

11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?

14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?

19:09 AI Compute Still Leads

28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?

34:05 China The New Bond Haven?

38:13 Best Trades in This Regime

44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation

49:50 Buy Non-US Again?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing