Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.

Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.

We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?

07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy

11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth

19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die

21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed

29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late

36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake

43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup

48:57 Where To Find Danny

FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5

› Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks