AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.

Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.

We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:21 AI’s Macro Impact

06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles

10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth

14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?

20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand

24:10 AI Is Too Cheap

28:15 Productivity Mirage

33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:24 Fed Policy And AI

41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?

47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks

49:47 The Future Of Economics

FOLLOW STEVE HOU

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood | Steve Hou