Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast

Episode: Caleb Williams is number one in the NFL among all QBs
Hosts: Dan Bernstein & Matt Abbatacola
Date: October 14, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of "Forward Progress" dives into the Chicago Bears’ recent dramatic win over the Washington Commanders, analyzes Caleb Williams' early NFL performance, and explores the sophisticated offensive schemes under coordinator Ben Johnson. Dan and Matt balance keen analysis with their trademark humor, personal anecdotes, and a look ahead to the Bears' next matchup.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bears' Recent Victory & Postgame Reflections

• The Bears notch a second consecutive 25-24 road victory against the Commanders.
• Dan recounts his postgame routine, including being roasted by his son Jason in the podcast’s live chat and unwinding by re-watching the show with "Top Gun: Maverick" on in the background.
• Matt and Dan reminisce about their shared sports memories, including the humorous origin of Dan's current baseball cap and his son Jason's stint in the Azteca League—highlighting the baseball culture and linguistic challenges in a semi-pro environment.
  • Memorable moment: "Today the little white guy is an honorary Mexican." (Dan, re: his son’s nickname in the Azteca League) [07:39]

2. Injuries & Toughness Among Bears Players

• DJ Moore: Hospitalized postgame for precaution after a hit to the midsection. Both hosts hope for a swift and full recovery, with careful speculation on his injury given the lack of specifics.
  • “He was sure out there blocking late, so his toughness is definitely not in question.” (Dan) [09:52]
• Darnell Wright: Playing through a torn UCL (elbow ligament) with a brace – an injury that would sideline most baseball players or quarterbacks.
  • "If this were a baseball player, we'd be talking about either Tommy John or...the internal brace procedure." (Dan) [10:27]

3. Offensive Line Evolution & Game Analysis

• The offensive line—long a problem for Chicago—is praised for its performance, with particular credit to undrafted free agent Theo Benedict, Joe Tunney, Drew Dahlman, and Jonah Jackson.
  • Key stat: No significant O-line penalties, though Benedict was called for an “illegal formation” – which the hosts viewed as a poor officiating decision. [16:10]
    • "That was bullshit. That's a terrible call." (Dan) [16:15]
  • Discussion on the NFL rule about linemen alignment, and how it's a legacy of Lawrence Taylor/Derrick Thomas’ dominance.
    • “Your head has to be in line with his ass. It's gotta [be] head, ass, ass, head.” (Dan, mimicking old O-line instruction) [16:32]

4. Caleb Williams: Next Gen Stats & Offensive Design

Expected Completion Percentage

• Stat Spotlight: Caleb Williams leads the NFL in "expected completion percentage" (XComp%) at 71.5%, ahead of Kyler Murray, CJ Stroud, Jackson Dart, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Patrick Mahomes.
  • “Caleb Williams is leading the NFL. He is leading the NFL. Expected completion percentage, okay, at 71.5%.” (Dan) [21:50]
• Discussion on what the stat measures: Incorporates air yards, separation, sideline proximity, pressure, QB movement, and timing.
• Interpretation: This high XComp% is seen as a greater reflection of Ben Johnson's play design—his ability to scheme receivers open—than solely Williams' accuracy.
  • “I think it tells us a lot more about the play caller, the play designer in Ben Johnson.” (Dan) [22:40]
  • “It's on Ben Johnson, but it's also Caleb, which is interesting—because he doesn’t consistently show the ability to find the right guy to throw to.” (Matt) [24:27]

Room for Growth

• Caleb Williams' actual completion percentage is 61.6% (22nd in the league among eligible starters), a full 10% below his expected.
  • “So he's minus 10 from expected.” (Matt) [27:53]
  • Analysis: If Williams starts "making his layups" and quickens his release, this offense could reach another level.
    • “If he starts hitting those open throws...this tells me that there's potential in there for him to take a much bigger leap forward.” (Dan) [26:36]

Supporting Stats

• Passer Rating: 98 (17th among starters)

• Yards: 1179 (18th in league)

• Yards/Att: 7.4 (14th)

• Only 2 INTs in 159 attempts—highlighting ball security.

    - “Here's what I love though: 159 attempts, two interceptions.” (Matt) [31:07]
  

• Positive trend: 10 sacks allowed this year vs. 17 at the same point last season; hosts credit O-line, playcalling, and Caleb’s mobility.

5. Kicking Game & Special Teams

• Discussion about a possible kicking competition between Jake Moody (stronger leg, but inconsistent) and Kyro Santos (historically accurate).
  • “If he can take care of those accuracy woes and...kickoff better...have more opportunities for the offense to score...” (Matt) [37:13]
• Amused breakdown of the effect of relaxed "K-ball" rules leading to longer field goals in the modern NFL.
  • “I said the moment they changed...their balls more round that the kicking was going to go crazy.” (Dan) [37:42]
• Memorable quote: Analysis of unfiltered quotes from Aussie punter Tori Taylor, with speculation on what colorful language the Tribune had to sanitize for print.
  • “He must have said assholes, right?...No one gives a shit how you feel.” (Dan, reading between the lines of a Tribune parenthetical) [40:09/41:06]

6. Quick Hits & Around the NFL

• A quick look ahead to the Bears-Saints matchup and upcoming Week 7 NFL games.
• Brief mentions of standout stats for other Bears (e.g., Kevin Byard’s INT total and Rome Odunze’s strong TD count).
• Jokes around the changing standards and oddities of NFL officiating and special teams.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | Context | |-----------|-------|---------|---------| |07:39|“Today the little white guy is an honorary Mexican.”|Dan Bernstein|Recounting his son’s Azteca League nickname| |09:52|“He was sure out there blocking late, so his toughness is definitely not in question.”|Dan Bernstein|On DJ Moore fighting through injury| |10:27|“If this were a baseball player, we'd be talking about either Tommy John or...the internal brace procedure.”|Dan Bernstein|Contextualizing Darnell Wright’s torn UCL| |16:15|“That's a terrible, absolutely terrible call.”|Matt Abbatacola|On the illegal formation flag against Theo Benedict| |16:32|“Your head has to be in line with his ass. It's gotta head, ass, ass, head.” |Dan Bernstein|On the NFL’s alignment rule for linemen| |21:50|“Caleb Williams is leading the NFL. Expected completion percentage, okay, at 71.5%.”|Dan Bernstein|Introducing the stat that headlines the episode| |22:40|“I think it tells us a lot more about the play caller, the play designer in Ben Johnson.”|Dan Bernstein|On what XComp% really reveals| |24:27|“It's on Ben Johnson, but it's also Caleb, which is interesting—because he doesn’t consistently show the ability to find the right guy to throw to.”|Matt Abbatacola|Analyzing the stat’s meaning for Williams| |26:36|“If he starts hitting those open throws...there's potential in there for him to take a much bigger leap forward.”|Dan Bernstein|On Williams’ upside| |31:07|“Here's what I love though: 159 attempts, two interceptions.”|Matt Abbatacola|Highlighting Williams’ care with the football| |37:42|“I said the moment they changed...their balls more round that the kicking was going to go crazy.”|Dan Bernstein|On NFL rule changes boosting field goal distances| |40:09|“He must have said assholes, right?”|Dan Bernstein|On Aussie punter Tori Taylor’s blunt locker room talk| |41:06|“No one gives a shit how you feel.”|Dan Bernstein|Reading (censored) Taylor quote| |42:31|“Maybe that should be the goal for this show, to get someone to top Courtney's swear.”|Dan Bernstein|Joking about their show's unfiltered moments|

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bears-Commanders Postgame, Personal Anecdotes – 03:47–07:52
• Injury Discussion (DJ Moore, Darnell Wright) – 08:07–10:27
• Offensive Line Performance Breakdown – 11:38–19:44
• Penalty & Formation Rules Rant – 16:10–18:48
• Caleb Williams’ Next Gen Stats Deep Dive – 20:32–27:42
• Williams’ Room To Grow/Open Throws – 27:42–29:44
• QB Stat Comparisons, Offensive Trendlines – 30:20–32:08
• Special Teams, Kicking Controversy – 36:21–37:42
• Tori Taylor’s Censored Quote – 38:49–41:59

Summary Tone

The episode blends passionate Chicago Bears analysis with irreverent humor and authentic fan energy. Dan’s encyclopedic sports memory and Matt’s quick wit keep the discussion lively, with in-depth breakdowns accessible to diehards and casual fans alike. The show’s tone is candid, playful, occasionally profane, and always rooted in deep Bears fandom and respect for football’s details.

Final Thoughts

This episode offers a sharp look at how coaching, play design, and execution intersect in the NFL—spotlighting Caleb Williams’ upside and Ben Johnson’s impact, while never losing sight of the chaos and quirks that make football—and fandom—so much fun.