← Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast
Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast
Caleb Williams is number one in the NFL among all QBs
00:41:38
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- [00:00]
Dan Bernstein
What do you think makes the perfect snack?
- [00:02]
AM PM Advertiser
Hmm, it's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient. Could you be more specific when it's cravenient. Okay, like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter available right down the street at a.m. p.m. Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at a.m. p.m.
- [00:16]
Dan Bernstein
I'm seeing a pattern here.
- [00:18]
AM PM Advertiser
Well yeah, we're talking about what I.
- [00:19]
Dan Bernstein
Crave which is anything from AM pm.
- [00:21]
AM PM Advertiser
What more could you want? Stop by AM PM where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience. Am pm too much good stuff Ted.
- [00:32]
Dan Bernstein
219. 219.
- [00:38]
Matt Abeticola
Forward progress a Chicago Bears podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matt Abeticola on 312 Sports.
- [00:47]
Dan Bernstein
If you care about the Chicago Bears, and I know you do, you cannot miss Forward Progress. I know you didn't last night because we had a nice little post game party going on here that was a hell of a lot of fun. So welcome to it if you're a Bears fan. Hi. Thanks for hanging out with us. Forward Progress is brought to you by Beer Church Brewing, New Buffalo's Brewery Pizzeria in a historic church Wood fired Neapolitan Pizza small batch craft beer brunch every day. Visit our friends at Beer Church Brewing. When we last left you we were in these same seats talking about the Bears 25 to 24 victory over the Washington Commanders, their second win by that score on the road in a couple of games. And on Dan Bernstein unfiltered Today we talk big, big picture. What it means, where they are, what it says about where they could go. But we like to dig a little deeper into some of the football stuff and some of the X and O stuff here. And let me just tell you about the I had last night, first of all, and I mentioned this before but so I can't see the live comments during the show when we record Forward Progress, especially post game. Now Matt, I know you can't. I'm sure there's a way that I can. But I just had didn't have it set up that way. So I didn't know my son Jason had jumped into the chat and was several times. Several times and according to at least one person in the chat was quote unquote cooking me. So he called me after. He was like why don't you check your text? Why don't you respond to the chat? Because he was enjoying roasting me and people didn't.
- [02:43]
Matt Abeticola
When did he turn into Keanu Reeves that he.
- [02:45]
Dan Bernstein
Well, he was yelling at me. So I decided that you would have been so proud of me last night that I mentioned that I did afterwards. It takes me a little time to cool down from these night games. I can't just go right to bed.
- [02:59]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
- [03:00]
Dan Bernstein
I've got to eat. I've got to kind of take the edge off a little bit. So I did. There are certain things with a gummy consistency that can help you take the edge off a little bit and kind of coast you into that headspace for sleep a little bit. And I decided I was gonna re watch last night's forward progress on mute just watching the live chat from start. Let me tell you something. It was hysterical. It was hysterical because I also had Top Maverick on the tv.
- [03:47]
Matt Abeticola
You didn't mention that before.
- [03:49]
Dan Bernstein
It was sort of on in the background while I was eating, and I was half watching the movie. And then I'm like, okay. Because I wanted to see where Jason was coming into the chat. But I started it from the beginning, and it's fast, but it's really fun. There were several times where you almost made pastrami come out of my nose. There are some very, very funny people. There's some weirdos, but the responses to some of them. I hope you're having as much fun. I know people have said to me, I hope you're having as much fun on the podcast as it seems, and I can tell you that I definitely am. I hope you're having as much fun in the live chat for some of these live shows as it seems you are.
- [04:32]
Matt Abeticola
Do you have a TV dedicated to just Top Gun Maverick that's on loop like, I do.
- [04:36]
Dan Bernstein
I know you do. I know you recommend that. I haven't called Wex. I haven't had one.
- [04:40]
Matt Abeticola
Every home should have one.
- [04:42]
Dan Bernstein
No, like in college, I had one that only had Die Hard on pretty much.
- [04:46]
Matt Abeticola
Hey, what's that hat behind you? Before I forget to ask again, this hat?
- [04:49]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah.
- [04:49]
Matt Abeticola
Because you keep switching the hats up.
- [04:51]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. Well, so far, this is the third hat we've had the Paletas, which is the Beloit Skycarps alternate for the Copa Diversion. We've had a Rancho Cucamonga Quakes hat. And this. This hat is Los Troceros. This is in the Azteca League here in Chicago. And this was the Jason Bernstein pitched. It's a semi pro team in the Azteca League. About half the guys on the team get paid. Jason was not one of the paid players. It's a lot of former former pros, former minor leaguers former pros in the various Latin leagues. There's former Venezuelan League players, former Mexican league players. And it's a local team and middle of the season, last summer. Not this summer, last summer they got low on pitching and they needed a right handed pitcher. They gave him a tryout and he pitched a couple of games or pitched well. It's a very competitive league. A lot of really, really good players. N. Okay, like one, One guy was like a Yankees prospect who got cut for being a little too mouthy and a little too difficult and 25 years old. And he was, he was a center fielder in the Yankees organization, but he pitched for them and was throwing, you know, 93, 93 inside, outside. So he had a blast in that league. The manager was really nice. They didn't speak a whole lot of English. So when the catcher came, that works out well. Well, Jason now is doing great in Spanish. He actually is taking Spanish in college. But at the time it was sort of the rapid fire and some of the really, really fast dialects between some of the different Latin ethnicities and different accents and stuff. So they had a translator for him. When the catcher would come out and talk to him, I just said, what? Spanish would throw fucking strikes.
- [06:56]
Matt Abeticola
Is that all they would say to him?
- [06:57]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, it was 95 degrees one day and he, the manager saw him before the game. He was like, where's the water? Where's the water? I said, I don't have any water. And all they had, the only thing cold was a Modelo tequila. It was a Modelo. So he finished his bullpen and he threw down a Modelo. They ended up winning the game. He went five innings, they end up winning the game. I think he gave up two earned and five. And the manager after the game, he said, don't think I didn't see you pound that Modelo before the game. And they called him, his nickname was El Guero, the little white guy.
- [07:38]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [07:39]
Dan Bernstein
So he said, he said, today the little white guy is an honorary Mexican.
- [07:44]
Matt Abeticola
Well, there you go. And so he probably should have done that Modelo before every game.
- [07:47]
Dan Bernstein
Right? I said, don't get in that habit.
- [07:50]
Matt Abeticola
Right. Start that habit and start taking heaters in the dugout too.
- [07:53]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, it's the last thing that the club baseball team needs because, you know, there's. For most of the games anyway, you.
- [07:59]
Matt Abeticola
Know, the Bears last night, dan, had lost 28 straight games when they were trailing in the fourth quarter by eight points or more.
- [08:06]
Dan Bernstein
They're making strides.
- [08:08]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. It's just crazy. Like they're making Strides, I want to.
- [08:11]
Dan Bernstein
Say, too, DJ Moore, as far as we know right now, we're waiting on an update on his condition. He was hospitalized precautionarily after last night's game, and I have not been able to determine exactly what's going on. Apparently he left Northwest Field in an ambulance. He was in there on the last play and smiling. When he left the field, we saw him come out. We didn't. There was speculation it was a leg injury, and then they were looking at his back. At one point, we saw him in a. In a catcher's stance on the sidelines, working through something, but he finished the game. So, obviously, we hope everything is okay with DJ Moore. And at the risk of speculation, I didn't see exactly where the hit was. You hope that there isn't some concern about, like, a kidney bruise or an organ or compartment syndrome was another thing I thought was maybe a possibility that maybe he got kicked in a large muscle area. And sometimes they don't want you to fly. If there could be an issue there. Maybe it's just there was. I don't know. So we're just obviously.
- [09:21]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. What I was reading.
- [09:23]
Dan Bernstein
Go ahead.
- [09:23]
Matt Abeticola
I was trying to read as much as I could about him after the game. And the one thing I said that. That I saw that he was in some discomfort after taking a hit to the midsection. So, you know, I am assuming that they would say back if it was that error, but I was somewhere in the front, so I don't know if it's the back.
- [09:42]
Dan Bernstein
You worry about the kidneys.
- [09:44]
Matt Abeticola
Right. But I would think if it's. If it was a shot in the midsection, to me, that's the front side. If they were gonna say back, they would, you know, they would say back.
- [09:52]
Dan Bernstein
Right. We'll see. It's whether or not, hopefully, he's okay. Yeah. Hope he's fine. I hope that there's nothing, you know, the spleen or anything like else any of the soft tissue in there that. But there didn't seem to be a whole lot of panic. I hope that we'll. We'll find out today. And like you say, he seemed to be in good spirits and in good shape, and he was sure out there blocking late, so his toughness is definitely not in question.
- [10:18]
Matt Abeticola
And then Darnell Wright yesterday, playing with that huge brace on his elbow, that elbow brace from that injury that he's. He's dealing with, but it didn't seem to impact him at all.
- [10:28]
Dan Bernstein
Torn ucl. Yeah, he has a. He has the injury that would end a baseball player or a quarterback's season. Plus, he has a torn ucl and he is wearing a brace. And if this were a baseball player, we'd be talking about either Tommy John or what they call the internal brace procedure would be if there is some of the ulnar collateral ligament left. But he, like you say, he is wearing a brace. You can let it try to sort of rescaffold itself and come back, depending on the condition that it's in. And I don't know how much pain he's in. I don't know how much leverage he's losing, but he sure had a terrific game. So if he's able to play at that level with that injury, maybe he'll just. He'll tough through it until the end of the year and then go get it fixed. Or they'll. They'll let it heal on its own, I think. I think both tackles did really well last night. I was watching Brian Baldinger's breakdown on Baldi's breakdowns about Theo Benedict, your guy and his athleticism. Why are you smiling about Baldy?
- [11:38]
Matt Abeticola
Remember our visit with him with Super Bowl.
- [11:40]
Dan Bernstein
Oh, we've talked. We talked about it, I think I talked about it, in fact. Yeah. Well, I was half drunk.
- [11:46]
Matt Abeticola
Well, maybe more than half. Terry definitely was.
- [11:49]
Dan Bernstein
That was Terry. Yeah, we both were. We were both out way too late. And that is. That was after Brian Baldinger had said the Bears had beaten the Cardinals. And he said, listen to this crowd. You can't fire Dick Jaron when you listen to this crowd. And I said, what the hell is wrong with you?
- [12:05]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. And it. Get. It got really testy.
- [12:07]
Dan Bernstein
He's like, I didn't think it'd be this kind of interview, so I didn't think you'd say something that stupid.
- [12:12]
Matt Abeticola
It went off the rails quickly.
- [12:14]
Dan Bernstein
No, it's okay, though. He's cool. I don't mind bald. He's cool. And he's got one of these, too, I think. One of those. One of those Duke diplomas. And he was very complimentary of Benedict's work at the second level. And when we were showing the film, Benedict's fast. He gets out there and he. He. He brings it in the run game. And you saw it there. There were plays that went left. There were a lot of plays that went right. I think Dahlman is better running to his right for whatever reason in the zone scheme, but he's. They made their choice, and the coaching staff was very honest about that. It was going to take time in the season that it was going to be an ongoing process. I know they were underwhelmed by the competition. Kudos to the coaching staff for giving a chance to an undrafted free agent who was on the practice squad and following through with. A lot of coaches say we have competition at every position. Anybody who emerges is going to have a chance. But a lot of them are lying or they have biases that they are not appreciating and not accounting for and not checking. This is a case where the coaches meant it.
- [13:28]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, no, for sure. And we've given a lot of criticism to the offensive line, to the new guys they brought in. They talked about being able to gel and have that process and time together. So want to give a little kudos to the offensive line as well. Outside of the tackles, the interior, Joe Tunney, we haven't said much about him all season, which is great. But I thought Dahlman tremendous and Jonah Jackson had really, really good games last night. There's one play I can remember about Dahlman missing a block, getting beat, leading to a tackle in the backfield. Outside of that, Jackson and Dahlman were downfield in the secondary level, making plays, pulling and shifting as needed to accommodate the run game that Ben Johnson wants to run through. I thought they had great games. I thought the entire offensive line played really well. But kudos to guys that we've criticized a lot. And if I'm not mistaken, no penalties. Well, Dahlman and Jackson, I don't think.
- [14:24]
Dan Bernstein
That there was a false start penalty there. Was there DJ Moore at one point lined up in the neutral zone. I know there was a defensive penalty lining up the neutral zone. As far as I remember that nobody jumped. You know what separates the pros from everyone else? They don't ignore injuries. A torn ligament doesn't heal itself. Well, neither does Ed and yeah, 30 million men deal with it. That is every major sports fan combined. Ed happens when there's not enough blood flow. And that's often combined with decreased arousal signals from your brain. It's not about age or losing a competitive edge. It's just biology. And it's treatable. Doctors review every case. When it comes to Rougiet, it's not one size fits all. Rougiet has an online process. There's no awkward pharmacy trips. These are medications with FDA approved ingredients. Unlimited doctor follow ups are included and Rougiet will adjust your dose until it's dialed in. Now, pro teams have specialized doctors for every issue, so why should your health be different? Rougiette specializes in ED treatment with Doctors who know exactly what they're doing. So visit rougiette.com that's R U G I E T and use the promo code Forward. This is forward progress. The first word of forward progress is forward. And that's all you have to use for your special offer at rug yet. R U G I E T dot com so you can get back in the game with rug yet.
- [16:06]
Matt Abeticola
I think that's correct. There was nine penalties, 84 yards. I don't think any of them were on the offensive line.
- [16:11]
Dan Bernstein
Well, yes, there was. The illegal formation on Benedict. That was bullshit.
- [16:15]
Matt Abeticola
That's a terrible call. Yeah, that was. That was a terrible, absolutely terrible call. And if you don't know the origin of that rule on the tackles, you can. You don't be in a straight line, you can kind of, kind of V out a little bit, but your head, your helmet is supposed to be in line in alignment with the center's buttocks.
- [16:32]
Dan Bernstein
You know who caused that rule? Who? Lawrence Taylor. There is a Lawrence Taylor.
- [16:38]
Matt Abeticola
Oh, did he really?
- [16:39]
Dan Bernstein
Lawrence Taylor and Derek Thomas. And I remember when they changed it, and I think it was Tony Wise in the Bears offensive line coach that was explaining it to me and he was explaining it just like. Was it Russell Yerk? Russell Yerk. On the broadcast, Russell Yerk was saying that his. The. Because Tony Wise told me goes the way you have to do it now. And he gets in a stance and he would say like, your head has to be in line with his ass. It's gotta head, ass, ass, head. Like. Okay, thank you, Tony. I got it. Yes. That was very colorfully described. And that's exactly what they said. That that's. And the reason they did that. You talk about somebody changing the game. That's essentially the Lawrence Taylor, Derek Thomas rule because otherwise they were able to just turn the corner too fast. They completely obviated. And they said now they weren't allowing some of these outside edge guys to just wreck a game. And they gave you more of a chance by allowing you to make a bow shape with your offensive line.
- [17:46]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. I mean, you can't look like a whole flock of geese, you know, heading south like that significant of a V. No, but you have to be. I mean, you can be off the.
- [17:54]
Dan Bernstein
Line a little bit.
- [17:55]
Matt Abeticola
And I don't think what he. Where he was at. And even in the broadcast, they didn't think it was that egregious of an alignment to call to merit a flag, particularly on a play that Caleb makes a beautiful pass. Rome makes an incredible catch in the end zone. So to take away a touchdown was really unfortunate. So maybe it shouldn't have gone the way the game went last night. The Bears maybe should have won that game a little more comfortably were it not for a couple bad calls.
- [18:21]
Dan Bernstein
Well, you can't play that game in the NFL though.
- [18:23]
Matt Abeticola
I mean, of course I know you can't.
- [18:25]
Dan Bernstein
You should have won it more comfortably. Sure. You should have had touchdowns in the first two drives.
- [18:28]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I mean, I can do that when they won. I mean, you know, if, if it's a loss, it's sour grapes with a win. You can complain about the officiating.
- [18:36]
Dan Bernstein
Fair enough.
- [18:36]
Matt Abeticola
But he wasn't in such a negative alignment that it should have been called again. Watch any Kansas City Chiefs game and you're going to see almost a complete V from their offensive line. It's horseshit.
- [18:49]
Dan Bernstein
I didn't know that there's going to be Chiefs shade that you're watching it that closely, that they allow them to.
- [18:54]
Matt Abeticola
Well, that's been going on for a.
- [18:56]
Dan Bernstein
Couple of seasons now and somebody put this in the chat last night. Why wouldn't you then want a center with an enormous ass?
- [19:06]
Matt Abeticola
Just find the biggest ass man possible.
- [19:08]
Dan Bernstein
That was the James Daniels. You remember the Bears when they had James Daniels at center?
- [19:13]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, not James Brown, but James Daniels.
- [19:15]
Dan Bernstein
Correct. But James Daniels had this like just massive, perfect interior lineman. Gloriously giant ass. Perfect ass.
- [19:25]
Matt Abeticola
You liked it, huh?
- [19:26]
Dan Bernstein
Oh, I walked into Bourbon A, I sat down that day and I said, I gotta tell you something, I saw today that was the best thing I've seen and it's that man's giant ass. And but the, if you just had a guy where it just kind of has that nice little, you know, back bump to it, you're, you can shape your offensive line better.
- [19:45]
Matt Abeticola
Maybe they get Cal rally out there.
- [19:47]
Dan Bernstein
Oh, the big dumper.
- [19:49]
Matt Abeticola
The big dumper. Yeah. But anyway, the offensive line played really good. A lot of criticism.
- [19:53]
Dan Bernstein
Taylor from, from one battle after another.
- [19:59]
Matt Abeticola
Oh yeah, that's a booty. But the offensive line being, you know, taking some criticism the first few weeks with some pre snap penalties and not being able to block for the run. Really good game last night from tackle to tackle. Really impressive and I hope, hope that continues and whatever Ben Johnson is able to build on from this game and add and develop more and even if that's not the case, you know, if this is what you're doing, well right now, keep doing it. Let's do it more and let's get it more effective in our next game against the Saints. Coming up this, this Sunday, I know.
- [20:33]
Dan Bernstein
You got some numbers that you want to look at now that the game is in the books. And the numbers have been adjusted here. I saw this note that I thought you'd find interesting. Our guy Joe Ostrowski was going through next gen stats.
- [20:44]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [20:45]
Dan Bernstein
And there is a stat called expected completion percentage.
- [20:50]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [20:51]
Dan Bernstein
And what that is for NFL next gen stats? Completion. Expected completion percentage is a probability. Measures the likelihood of a pass being completed. And it's based on the air distance of the throw, how far it travels in the air, the separation the receiver gets, the proximity to the sideline, the pass rusher separation. That's how long the quarterback has to throw the nearest pass rusher.
- [21:21]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [21:21]
Dan Bernstein
How fast the quarterback is moving at the moment of the throw and the amount of time the quarterback has from the moment it snapped until the moment it's thrown. Those are all the things. A lot of stuff it is. It's a lot of things that are taken in to determine all that. And that's compared to the actual completion percentage. You're saying what throws should you make? So the way I would look at this. Well, let me just give you the numbers first and then I'll explain my analysis of it.
- [21:49]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [21:50]
Dan Bernstein
Caleb Williams is leading the NFL. He is leading the NFL. Expected completion, expected completion percentage, okay, at 71.5%.
- [22:03]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [22:04]
Dan Bernstein
Kyler Murray is second at 69. 3. C.J. stroud is third nicely at 69. Jackson Dart at 68. 3. Tuathunga Wailoa at 67. 8, Jared Goff at 67.6. And Patrick Mahomes at 67.5.
- [22:27]
Matt Abeticola
Okay, so let me ask you a question on this then. What is now a lot of data points in there to create this percentage.
- [22:35]
Dan Bernstein
Correct.
- [22:37]
Matt Abeticola
So then what does this tell us about that particular quarterback?
- [22:41]
Dan Bernstein
I think it tells us a lot more about the play caller, the play designer in Ben Johnson.
- [22:51]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I agree, because I'm looking through that list. And I mean you. So it went Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Jackson Dart, C.J.
- [23:01]
Dan Bernstein
Stroud.
- [23:02]
Matt Abeticola
C.J. stroud. Then Jackson dart.
- [23:03]
Dan Bernstein
Jackson dart. I just.
- [23:05]
Matt Abeticola
Then Jared Goff.
- [23:06]
Dan Bernstein
And this, this is something that would give all the credit in the world. I want you to picture, if you will, breaking into Rod Serling here. Picture the pass that Olamide Zacchaeus dropped late.
- [23:21]
Matt Abeticola
Oh, Jesus.
- [23:22]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, but this gives him credit for that. This gives. Okay, this gives Ben Johnson credit for an expected completion. That means he's. That is pretty much if you want a stat that says, are you scheming guys? Open that's what it looks like. Not necessarily. Not throwing guys open, are you? Scheming guys open?
- [23:47]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, no, I get that. That makes sense and I like that. And then it also then incorporates the vision that the quarterback is having in seeing the right guy to get correct. So you could scheme it correctly, but I may not see it correctly, which is. So. Okay, this makes more sense now because of those five quarterbacks you mentioned, the first guy I would take right now making a team is Jared Goff, of.
- [24:10]
Dan Bernstein
Course, but, well, Mahomes.
- [24:12]
Matt Abeticola
Well, yeah, you're right. You did say Mahomes too. Sorry, my bad. So Mahomes first, then. Then Goff second. But yeah, this. Yeah. So I like, I like how this plays into the play calling. It's. It's on Ben Johnson, but it's also Caleb, which is interesting because he hasn't. He doesn't consistently show the ability to find the right guy to throw to.
- [24:34]
Dan Bernstein
Well, we. Then again it makes us question on those throws when we say this guy was more open. He should have thrown it here, he should have thrown it there. What this tells us is on balance, he is throwing it to the right guy if he's leading the league. If the throws. These are throws that you actually make.
- [24:55]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
- [24:55]
Dan Bernstein
Not ones you should make. These are. Of the throws that leave his hand, he has the highest expected completion percentage. What that means is if we try to boil this down, it is.
- [25:13]
Matt Abeticola
The.
- [25:13]
Dan Bernstein
Guy that is schemed open for the most part, he is targeting.
- [25:19]
Matt Abeticola
Okay, that's correct. And so that then goes to the play calling itself and where you said it's more on Ben Johnson and the.
- [25:25]
Dan Bernstein
Play calling and the design.
- [25:27]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [25:28]
Dan Bernstein
So first it's constructing the play against air and then it's having the right call in and. Or checked to. This is the other thing I want to get to just because Ben Johnson called it. How many times do we see Caleb Williams go to the line and say kill, kill, can, can, whatever it is, that means the other one. And that's his decision. That's not Ben Johnson's decision.
- [25:54]
Matt Abeticola
So it goes to that then. So the Ben Johnson construction, then the calling the right play at that right moment given the defense and the circumstance of the game. And then you can also add in Caleb Williams at the line, making an adjustment there. But let me throw this at you, okay. Because there are still times when Caleb is missing. The guy that, that we determine is probably the number one route is the guy. He's not making the throw because he's not getting out of his hand fast enough. Right what happens to this offense when he starts doing that? He's leading the league right now. What happens when he starts taking advantage of all those opportunities that are there for this Ben Johnson offense?
- [26:32]
Dan Bernstein
Right. What this says is even at that percentage, there's still meat on the bone.
- [26:36]
Matt Abeticola
Yes.
- [26:37]
Dan Bernstein
And another place where I would measure that is in the difference between his actual completion percentage and his expected completion percentage. That tells you distance that should be made up. So where is he? Is he at, is he at 66? And I don't, I know that there's an effective completion percentage. It's a little different because there are throws that he's going to dirt. There's throws that he's going to throw out of the back of the end zone on purpose. And sometimes those things are tracked a little differently in some of the more meaningful stats. But if he starts making his layups, if he starts hitting those open throws and having better communication with whether or not a receiver is stopping or continuing his feet in man versus zone, obviously if it's zone you sit. If it's man, you keep moving and they're still in between on some of those. This tells me that there's potential in there for him to take a much bigger leap forward.
- [27:42]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, no, absolutely. And it's really exciting to think that that's even a possibility. And looking at his numbers right now for the year, he's at 61.6% completion percentage.
- [27:52]
Dan Bernstein
So he's minus 10 from expected.
- [27:54]
Matt Abeticola
Minus 10 from expected. Correct. And that currently has him at 22nd in the league among quarterbacks that have a necessary amount of attempts because there's other guys with higher percentages. But, but looking at all guys that are starters with a certain number of percentage or a number of attempts, I should say he's 22nd the league at 61.6, which is 10.
- [28:13]
Dan Bernstein
So if you're looking at the glass half empty, if you're looking at the glass half empty, you'd say he's just inaccurate. But somebody if you. And then that's. I don't think it's an invalid criticism when I'm here saying he misses layups that say, look, this guy's scheming people open. And even when you, even when you make the right decision, you're still lagging your expectation by 10%.
- [28:37]
Matt Abeticola
Correct. So just think how much better it's going to get. And so like, like last night, let's take that two point conversion that we talked about where Kyle Read is the first read and it should have been immediate. There shouldn't have been any delay. And the fact that he ran 35 yards to throw an incomplete pass was just completely unnecessary. So how did he miss that guy? So once, once he starts. So he's leading the league now at 71.5. And once he starts releasing the ball quicker like Ben Johnson wants, like on that particular play, that percentage goes up even higher, which creates more yards, which creates more points.
- [29:12]
Dan Bernstein
When they took that late shot down the field to Roma Dunes A in the double team, which into double coverage. Yeah, I have no problem with taking shots to take shots, but not with that level of danger.
- [29:28]
Matt Abeticola
I didn't know that was, that was, that was too high, too high of a risk factor for me. The thing that irritated me more was the one in the first quarter that he underthrew Rome, that Rome had to slow down, come back and was able to allow the defender to make a play on it. He has a better arm that he just made a bad throw. That was a very inaccurate throw at that point.
- [29:45]
Dan Bernstein
He did. I also think Rome on that play could have made a veteran, a veteran wide receiver move. There is when it is under thrown, jump into the. Make sure the defender is between you and the ball and as you, as you target the ball, go right through the body of the defender. Yeah, they have to call that. Yeah, that is, that is an automatic flag because chances are that defender's head is turned. Just go, go right through his body. And that's. That's automatic spot foul.
- [30:21]
Matt Abeticola
All right, A couple other things on Caleb Williams here. Looking at this season. Through five games, he's again among quarterbacks with qualified attempts. His quarterback rating is 17th among starters at 98. Really good.
- [30:35]
Dan Bernstein
You're talking quarterback rating or quarterback rating? QBR.
- [30:39]
Matt Abeticola
Yes.
- [30:39]
Dan Bernstein
Not passer efficiency rating.
- [30:42]
Matt Abeticola
No, no, no. I'm looking at. This is. Hang on, let me just pull my screen back down here.
- [30:47]
Dan Bernstein
Oh, I just want to make sure. Because we use them interchangeably, but passer rating.
- [30:51]
Matt Abeticola
This is Passer rating, not QBR. OK. Passer rating. He's at 98, 17th among starters. He's 18th in yards at 1179 yards per average. He's 14 at 7.4. Here's what I love, though. 159 attempts, two interceptions.
- [31:07]
Dan Bernstein
Okay.
- [31:08]
Matt Abeticola
So we know he takes care of the ball well there.
- [31:10]
Dan Bernstein
He should have had two last night, though.
- [31:12]
Matt Abeticola
Should have had two last night, but again, they didn't make the play. Interesting enough though, looking at your guy, Baker Mayfield, 195 attempts, one interception.
- [31:20]
Dan Bernstein
He's. He's awesome.
- [31:22]
Matt Abeticola
Here's, here's Something to keep in mind though, for Sunday. Spencer Rattler, 203 attempts, one interception.
- [31:28]
Dan Bernstein
That changes.
- [31:29]
Matt Abeticola
Which changes on Sunday for sure. Here's one other note that I love about about what we're seeing for the Bears as a team and Caleb as the quarterback. Through five games this year, 10 sacks, which is 18th in the league. Last year. Through five games, same record, three and two, 17. Yep, 17 sacks. So almost, almost, almost cut that in half for a team through five games, same identical records, 10 sacks this year, 17 sacks last year. That is obviously a byproduct of the offensive line as well as Caleb himself coaching.
- [32:08]
Dan Bernstein
That to me also is is swapping out Ben Johnson for Shane Waldron.
- [32:15]
Matt Abeticola
I think there's a difference there.
- [32:16]
Dan Bernstein
Swapping in Ben Johns vs. Shane Walter. I think that is a huge difference.
- [32:20]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. And a couple other things real quick to Kevin Byard the third. He's tied for second in interceptions. Rome, despite losing that touchdown last night, is still one behind Brown and Pickens at six and Rome has five.
- [32:37]
Dan Bernstein
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- [34:20]
Matt Abeticola
Just want to take a quick peek ahead and mention the Bears are hosting the Saints this Sunday noon at Soldier Field. Our Thursday night game to kick off week seven is the Steelers, who are winners of three in a row at Cincinnati, taking on Frankenstein's monster and my guy, Joe Flacco. Our early game Sunday, we have the Rams and Jacksonville playing another London game.
- [34:44]
Dan Bernstein
So that's the game.
- [34:45]
Matt Abeticola
Yes, we get the game. We get some more. More football all day long, which I love. I love these early games, these international games. Saints at. At the Bears, we have the Dolphins at Cleveland. It's gonna be a stinker. New England winners of also three in a row at Tennessee, so they'll get four in a row there. Raiders are at Kansas City. Eagles go to Minnesota. Hopefully a loss for our friends here in the North Carolina at the Jets. Will the jets get their first win of the season for Aaron Glenn or will he get fired? Is he your next coach on the hot seat?
- [35:18]
Dan Bernstein
Aaron Glenn? No, he's. It's too early.
- [35:22]
Matt Abeticola
Too early in his time.
- [35:22]
Dan Bernstein
Mike McDaniel.
- [35:24]
Matt Abeticola
Oh, yeah. Mike McDaniel is your guy. That's right. You have the Giants at Denver. Denver also looking for their fourth win in a row. The Colts and the Chargers. Washington at Dallas, Green Bay at Arizona. Atlanta at San Francisco.
- [35:37]
Dan Bernstein
And that's one, two.
- [35:39]
Matt Abeticola
Oh, yeah. Atlanta at San Francisco.
- [35:40]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, Atlanta.
- [35:41]
Matt Abeticola
Atlanta's quite. I don't know what to make of Atlanta. I don't either.
- [35:43]
Dan Bernstein
But that. That's a good little shakeout game there.
- [35:46]
Matt Abeticola
I like that to figure out. Yeah, for sure. And then we have two Monday night games again for us. Your guy Baker takes on the Lions in the earlier of the two games.
- [35:55]
Dan Bernstein
And then is it an NFC championship preview?
- [36:00]
Matt Abeticola
If you're lucky, it would be.
- [36:03]
Dan Bernstein
Right, because I have the Bucks at 33.
- [36:06]
Matt Abeticola
33 to 1. Yeah. And then the second Monday night game is Houston at Seattle. That'd be a really good defensive matchup.
- [36:14]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, it's pretty good, too. Yeah. Yeah.
- [36:16]
Matt Abeticola
We're due for some good, better games here in week seven to occupy our time.
- [36:21]
Dan Bernstein
Let me ask you, with the performance of Jake Moody and the understanding that this coaching staff is certainly not tied to Kyro Santos in any way, do the Bears have a kicking competition?
- [36:37]
Matt Abeticola
Well, Jake Moody didn't do much to hurt himself last night. That one, real low, low trajectory on that. On that 48 yard kick that was blocked. We talked about it last night a little bit. He has a stronger leg than Kyro Santos. Kyro Santos is a lot more accurate, one of the more accurate guys ever in Bears history. And if maybe the change of scenery, the different coaching, something different might help Moody because he's been wildly inconsistent, which is why he's no longer with the 49ers. If he can take care of those accuracy woes and, you know, kick off better and have more opportunities for the offense to score, you know, because I mean, I mean, I know he's got.
- [37:19]
Dan Bernstein
A bigger leg because Dan, we're seeing.
- [37:21]
Matt Abeticola
That now in the NFL. It's not. I mean, there was almost a 67 yard field goal.
- [37:25]
Dan Bernstein
There was a 67 yard field goal.
- [37:27]
Matt Abeticola
But they called a timeout though.
- [37:29]
Dan Bernstein
Frozen right. But he bounced it off the crossbar.
- [37:32]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. So, I mean, we're seeing these longer kicks now becoming more and more important parts of an offense.
- [37:38]
Dan Bernstein
What did I tell you about the K balls?
- [37:39]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. No, you thought you talked about the cables before the season even began.
- [37:42]
Dan Bernstein
Yep. Before the season started. I said the moment that they changed, they relaxed the rule about softening their balls and making the. Making their balls more round that the kicking was going to go crazy this year. I told you that.
- [37:57]
Matt Abeticola
You know, it was funny last night before the game winning kick. I don't know if you, if you saw it on but they showed it on TV and Troy Aikman obviously missed it. When the ref swapped the ball out. He took the ball off the ground, put the kicking ball down on the ground right before the line came up to the line of scrimmage and Troy Aikman made a comment about how that ball's just been sitting there getting all wet and it's going to be slippery. Hope that's not an issue. But he must have missed when the ref swapped the ball out.
- [38:23]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. Because it probably was slippery when the fumble happened.
- [38:28]
Matt Abeticola
Oh, I'm sure it was. I'm sure it was. When Jaden Daniels went. Because that. You saw the slow mo replay, they got a nice shot of it. The ball came out of his hand prematurely. It definitely slipped out of his hand before it got the frosty.
- [38:39]
Dan Bernstein
While we're talking about kicking, let me just maybe conclude with this. I don't know if you saw the quotes that Brad Biggs had from Tori Taylor.
- [38:49]
Matt Abeticola
I didn't.
- [38:50]
Dan Bernstein
Here's my proposal that Tori Taylor needs some less filtration that we need a Tory Taylor unfiltered because I don't. There's some parentheticals that have been plugged into these quotes to make them. To sanitize them properly for the Tribune.
- [39:08]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [39:09]
Dan Bernstein
And there's just a couple things from him that I would love to know what he actually said because I guess Biggs found him afterward to talk about the prep for A different kicker and how you go through the operation with long snapper Scott Daly. And Daly says, we were prepped for every scenario. We've been working with Jake for three weeks now. It wasn't anything foreign. He's a pro. He's super low maintenance. He's been in the league for a while. So here's Tori Taylor, and I'm not gonna do an Australian accent. He says, I feel real lucky, or as you Americans would say, blessed. They're different things. He said, cairo and Jake are not high maintenance because you've got some people that are jerks. And he didn't say jerks. He's talking about placekickers.
- [40:01]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [40:02]
Dan Bernstein
He must have said assholes, right?
- [40:04]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
- [40:05]
Dan Bernstein
I think assholes are dicks, Right?
- [40:10]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
- [40:11]
Dan Bernstein
Or it's some Australian word that probably sounds like a. You got some guys boxing walls. I. I don't even know. You got some people that are. That are jerks. If it's half a degree left or right, it's. What was that? That does make a difference. So they said, it's the same operation. And then he said, this is Tori Taylor. I'm going to have parenthetically bad. So he probably said, I'm going to have shitty punts and Scott's maybe going to snap bad balls. That all happens. We do a good job of going through our process and our routine. And I'm going to change a parenthetical here. No one gives a shit how you feel. Polls at Hightower and Johnson aren't going, oh, I wonder if these boys are feeling okay. No, this better go through the fucking uprights. You know what I mean? Because it says parenthetically darn uprights.
- [41:07]
Matt Abeticola
All right, so, yeah, let's make it. I'm gonna make an effort here to get him on because we need to hear Tori Taylor unfiltered.
- [41:13]
Dan Bernstein
That's hysterical.
- [41:15]
Matt Abeticola
So here, I just Googled real quick Australian slang for jerk.
- [41:19]
Dan Bernstein
Yeah.
- [41:20]
Matt Abeticola
And terms like prick, Wally Pratt or plunker. So it's possible he said. Yeah, he. Let's say he said Pratt and Biggs was like, what? What is that? And he's like, oh, that's like a jerk. But so that's a possibility. I like the idea better that he said asshole or dick or that he.
- [41:39]
Dan Bernstein
Swore well, pricks would work there, too.
- [41:42]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
- [41:42]
Dan Bernstein
No, it was awesome. People picks, right? Yeah.
- [41:45]
Matt Abeticola
So we'll have to find out. We'll have to make that part of our mission here to understand what he really feels like, because we can put him on Dan Burnson Unfiltered which then makes him unfiltered where he can speak his piece.
- [41:59]
Dan Bernstein
Well, if he can follow Courtney Cronin in that regard. And that was on this show, that was on Forward Progress and I think she is going she's the reigning champion.
- [42:09]
Matt Abeticola
Well, that's the record holder right now.
- [42:11]
Dan Bernstein
Of getting permission to create. And then in the next sentence, just.
- [42:15]
Matt Abeticola
Lighting up all the meters like it was a man. It was great.
- [42:18]
Dan Bernstein
It was just throwing everything into redlining, all of it. So I don't think he's going to.
- [42:24]
Matt Abeticola
Top that, but maybe, maybe we can let him try. Maybe that should be the goal for this show, to get someone to top Courtney. Swear.
- [42:31]
Dan Bernstein
I want to let people know that later on this afternoon, Organizations Win Championships is returning to your ears. Wherever you get your podcasts, the OWC is going to drop later this afternoon and it is now part of 312 Sports. If you are a Bulls fan, if you're an NBA fan, it is going to be your place to hear a lot of that stuff. And obviously we're going to do plenty on dbu, but we're going to do a lot more of it on owc. And the the ass wipe that was the star of the the live chat last night is going to be hanging out so you can come hang out with us later. Make sure you subscribe and like and download and all the things that you do here.
- [43:19]
Matt Abeticola
That's it. Say bye now.
- [43:20]
Dan Bernstein
Bye now.