
Loading summary
Dan Bernstein
Everyone wants to be stronger, not just physically, but in every part of life. But between confusing workout advice, complicated equipment, and trying to figure out nutrition, where does anyone even start? Well, to get stronger mentally and physically, go to Anytime Fitness. You'll get a personalized training, nutrition and recovery plan, all customized to your body, your strength level and your goals. You'll get expert coaching to optimize your results Anytime anywhere, any in the gym and on the Anytime Fitness app. And you'll get Anytime access to 5,500 gyms worldwide, all with the right equipment to level up your strength gains and your life. So get started at anytime fitness.com that's anytime fitness.com Ted219 219.
Matt Abaticola
Forward progress a Chicago Bears podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matt Abeticola on 312 SP.
Dan Bernstein
We award you Forward Progress and it's free. We give it to you. We give you Forward Progress, a Chicago Bears podcast here on three one two sports. I'm Dan Bernstein, that is Mattabaticola and we are brought to you by Beer Church Brewing, New Buffalo's brewery pizzeria in a historic church, wood fired Neapolitan pizza, small batch craft beer brunch every day. Visit beerchurchbrewing.com now. Also, let me say this just because this podcast, Forward Progress happens to post around 1:00, clock Central time and we talk about beer church and we talk about Neapolitan pizza. Not our fault if you get hungry that I've had so many complaints, you guys. You talk about, look, Maddie and I talk about food a lot. We just do. We both like food. We both like cooking. Our families like our cooking. Food is an important part of my day. I like to get excited. I like to think about my dinner early in the day and sort of fetishize it and get excited about it. I get passionate talking about it.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, it's always a conversation we have. What's for dinner tonight?
Dan Bernstein
What are we cooking all the time? Cause I always get cooking tips from Matty. He's worked in restaurants and many different kinds and he's worked front of house, back of house, the whole thing. And I'm hungry a lot, so it works out well. So yeah, it's not our fault. Go to beer church, you're hungry, you want a pizza, go there. I told you where it is. It's that easy. You can go, you make your own beer, sit down, you make a pizza, eat it, there you go.
Matt Abaticola
Get after it.
Dan Bernstein
Right? Get after it. So not our fault. When we talk Chicago Bears today, we're going to get to some stuff, some baffling metrics around Caleb Williams that I'm not necessarily criticizing their existence and they're not necessarily hurting my Bears fandom. I just want them explained.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, I get it.
Dan Bernstein
In a way that makes sense to me.
Matt Abaticola
It's not making you angry?
Dan Bernstein
No, not angry. Just curious. And you pointed something out yesterday that I thought was interesting about Caleb Williams throwing on the run and is that getting better? Is that getting worse? Is it plateauing? Is it something in this offense that is going to need to improve? And I think dovetailing with what I was talking about, about if outside zone run, if you're getting confident in these tackles and you're getting confidence in the choreography of outside zone, there's going to be some on the run throws to be made off of. Bootleg action.
Matt Abaticola
Correct.
Dan Bernstein
And whether it's to his right or to his left, he better get better at it. And he talked about it and we're going to get to that.
Matt Abaticola
You know, it's interesting. I'm glad that you brought that back up to the extended run zones and what they took advantage of in a deficiency in the Commander's defense. I almost said it again. In the Commander's defense. I'm wondering, how successful can the Bears be? Like we thought maybe they turned a corner in the run game or was this just a byproduct? Yes. Was it just a byproduct of what they saw in a deficiency against an opponent?
Dan Bernstein
You never know. It's football, right? You never know. You don't know until I bet Johnson and Dan Rosh are. And Eric B. Enemy will tell you. Because zone run and gap schemes too, are choreographed. Every position of the feet matters. The way everyone's moving at the same time matters. And they will tell you. I know they say, they always say we've had a good week of practice, but they know, they know if something's ready to pop. They know if there's a play that just is crackling a little bit like, okay, finally, finally, finally, that we've cut away the stuff we're bad at. We're just going to keep drilling this until we've got it. A well executed run play. If you've got the numbers and you've got the timing, it should work every time, if properly. Nobody blows up a block, nobody sneaks into a gap. This stuff is designed to work.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah. So, I mean, I was excited about what I saw in the run game and I thought, all right, maybe they've, they've, they've unlocked something, have they unlocked something for their offense moving forward. Or is it just a byproduct of this game against Washington? And we'll. I look forward to seeing what happens against New Orleans this, this Sunday.
Dan Bernstein
Keep it as an open item. Yeah, and obviously it's a good open item to have if you can fill it in positively and just say, look, this was a question and there were perhaps privileged to be sitting here at three and two with the opponents that they faced. And what is the Hawk Harrelson corollary? Don't tell me who you played, tell me when you played them. That's the NFL. When is the quarterback hurt? Are important players hurt? And I don't know why we all agree to pretend to ignore it. When the schedules come out, every iteration of a schedule, release the very first February inklings, this is. They finished here. This is what the schedule is going to look like. And then all of the memes on schedule, release day. You have no idea, right? Win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. You got no idea, right?
Matt Abaticola
How many people had the Ravens at 1 and 4 after five games.
Dan Bernstein
Of course, you don't know who's hurt. You don't know who's good, why they're good or bad. It's the NFL. But every year we forget this. It's clockwork.
Matt Abaticola
We all sells it now, Dan. They sell it. There's a release date. They tell you about it at the draft.
Dan Bernstein
I understand.
Matt Abaticola
Release dates, right?
Dan Bernstein
So have fun with the memes. Have fun with the shade and all the trolling and the little Easter eggs that they put into the videos. It's fun. But you don't know until right before the game, right? You really don't. Until the game time decisions, until some important player who is going to run around and test his high ankle sprain or be cleared out of the concussion protocol. And yet we still, we still fool ourselves every year into thinking we know who's good and bad. Look, you know, the quarterbacks are, you know, the coaches are, you know, if the team's got an elite pass rusher and then you fill everything in. So help me out here, okay? Help me out. And when I say help me out, I mean it, because I love advanced metrics. Generally. I do think that the way they have changed baseball, we can debate whether it's been good or bad for the game, but baseball's different. Baseball is an individual sport that masquerades as a team sport. Baseball is not a team sport. Everybody has their turn to do things. There are some occasions where you execute a Relay or there's a double play or whatever it may be, but for the most part, you're up, you're throwing the ball.
Matt Abaticola
But even then, then it's still individual. I mean, I could, I could, I could make a nice, I could pick up the ground ball, make a nice pitch to the second baseman, it's his turn. And then he, you know, he fumbles it. I did my, my part really well, you didn't do your part.
Dan Bernstein
And in football, it's harder to distinguish whose turn it is and who is doing these things. Basketball is trying to do it. But I'm. The point is I'm open to all of it. I think measuring things and explaining things should ever be a threat to you. It should never make you feel confused or make you feel old or make you feel uncomfortable. Roll with it.
Matt Abaticola
Well, I think that's one of your deficiencies, Odan, is that you want information, formulate knowledge. And yeah, winding information is bad on your part.
Dan Bernstein
So I happen to like next gen stats and I generally think pro Football focus is a benefit too. Why not have more people quantifying things or trying to. And over time. Look, it took forever for baseball stats to get where they are now, right? And just because I was reading the Bill James baseball abstract in 1982 and hearing him start to begin to understand on base percentage and how important that was, and he had things like we had total average, it was Thomas Boswell, I think, who did that, and secondary average and the various formations of Brock statistics. Brock 1, Brock 2 and all these that were trying to find whether or not prospects would be good. And those are all sort of consigned out of the ash bin because everything has evolved, it's been improved. And I think football stats and football metrics will improve over time. But I need help with this one because sometimes my eye test fails me. And I don't pretend to think that my eye test generally is better than stats. Stats see every game. Stats see every play the way PFF does their stats. There are some assumptions, there's interpolation in the numbers where human beings are basing a grade on what that player was supposed to do on a play. And there's always going to be some disconnect, especially in the blocking and tackling grades of who has what gap and why. It's not going to be perfect, but it'll continue to get better over time as the models are tweaked. These were the Bears best offensive grades from the last week on Pro Football Focus. Just so you get an example and tell me if you think this makes sense.
Caleb Williams
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
And the offense, it's everything for which you're responsible. Joe Tuney, left guard, he's a legitimately great player. He is a Pro bowl level left guard. He had an 88. DeAndre Swift, 85.6. Luther Burden, 81.1. In the. Was it 15 snaps that he had 20 snaps. Darnell Wright, no surprise, 75.7. And a little bit of a surprise, tight end, Cole Comet, 72.1 despite one reception for zero yards. Cole Commit, good blocker. He was really good at doing his job. The defensive grades, tell me if these track with what you saw.
Matt Abaticola
Wait, real quick. Before you go to defense, tell me the numbers against Swift and burden.
Dan Bernstein
Swift was 85.6. Burden was 81.1.
Matt Abaticola
Okay. I don't know all the, all the parameters to what they do as far as measuring these grades, but how is Swift four points higher than Burden in that particular game? This is, this is the commander's game, correct? Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
He should be more.
Matt Abaticola
I would think if you were to say to me, give me a number grade on these guys, I would think there'd be a greater disparity between Swift and Luther Burden.
Dan Bernstein
Well, Luther Burden had four targets. He caught all of them and apparently executed his blocking assignments.
Matt Abaticola
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
For the most part.
Caleb Williams
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Okay.
Matt Abaticola
I get. I'm not questioning you or ran his. I just. To me, I just. Like on the, on the surface, I would say Swift had a much more meaningful, impactful, important game and the stats bear that out.
Dan Bernstein
I don't know that this measures meaningful or impactful. It measures how well you did your job.
Matt Abaticola
Well, I think he did his job really well that day.
Dan Bernstein
I do too.
Matt Abaticola
Better than a four point spread, but whatever. Okay.
Caleb Williams
Okay.
Matt Abaticola
Best. Yes.
Dan Bernstein
Defensive grades. Yes. T.J. edwards, 89. Kevin Byard, 81.2. Tremaine Edmonds, 80.9. Montez Sweat, 79.5. Linebacker Demarco Jackson at 75. I think he had three plays. Okay. When Noah Sewell went out. Remember we talked about third linebacker?
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
So when Sewell was out and DeMarco Jackson was linebacker number three. Two tackles and tackled well and covered well. Okay, now the. This is what. Well, I'm going to save it. Here are the worst defense grades. These are the worst defensive performers. Jonathan ford, defensive tackle, 37.1.
Matt Abaticola
Except for his head on Sewell.
Dan Bernstein
Great hit on his teammate.
Matt Abaticola
Awesome.
Dan Bernstein
He concussed his teammate brilliantly. Jonathan Owens, 40.2. Nishan Wright, 42.1. Kyler Gordon, 52.2. Dio Odengbo, 55.
Matt Abaticola
Do you have briskers number there?
Dan Bernstein
I don't. I just have the bottom five. Okay. Now here are your bottom five on offense and I'm going to go from the fifth worst to the worst. The worst graded player on offense for the Bears is where I'm going to finish.
Matt Abaticola
Bad feeling where this is going.
Dan Bernstein
Okay. Okay. Theo Benedict, 62.
Matt Abaticola
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
Jonah Jackson 58.9. Tight end Durham Smythe 56.1.
Caleb Williams
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
Olamide Zacchaeus, 49.4. Okay. Get that. And the worst graded offensive player on the Chicago bears in their 2524 come from behind road win over the apparently contending Washington Commanders quarterback Caleb Williams at 46.1.
Matt Abaticola
That's right. I thought this was heading.
Dan Bernstein
Okay, all right, now hold that thought for a second.
Matt Abaticola
Okay?
Dan Bernstein
I want you to hold that thought. Why does every recipe I try need 18 ingredients, including a jar of something paste I'll never use again but will sit in my fridge for nine months? I just want dinner in the oven fast. That's why I love Blue Apron's new one Pan assemble and bake meals. They send you fresh ingredients that are already chopped. All you do is put it all together and bake. That's it. No chopping, no weird leftovers. Just delicious, easy to make meals. Get 20% off your first two orders with code APRON20 terms and conditions apply. Visit blueapron.com terms for more. And I want you to now think about. Okay, that's interesting, but where does that fit? It's one thing to have that grade and say, okay, maybe he was the worst Bear, but where does that then fit when we start looking around a little bit at say, other quarterbacks this week in the league.
Matt Abaticola
Okay, that's a fair, fair route to go.
Dan Bernstein
Caleb Williams, with that rating of 46.1 with a PFF grade, is the 31st ranked quarterback in the NFL behind Dylan Gabriel, behind Justin Fields in the jets loss. Justin fields threw for 45 yards. Justin Fields was 9 of 17 for 45 yards. And what's more, was sacked nine times. Nine times. For negative passing yards. He had negative 10 passing yards. Taking the nine sacks into account, Justin Fields, his production in the passing game.
Matt Abaticola
Was negative and yet his grade was higher.
Dan Bernstein
Correct. And yet he still finished two spots higher than Caleb Williams, who was 17.
Matt Abaticola
Of 29 for 252 yards, 58.6% completion rate, an average of 8.69. One touchdown, zero interceptions, three sacks for a quarterback rating of 98.6.
Dan Bernstein
That's a passer efficiency rating of 98.6.
Matt Abaticola
Yes.
Dan Bernstein
All I will say is I want to better understand this. I'm not going to get angry. I'm not gonna necessarily come racing to his defense like some sort of fanboy lawyer. I want to know. I'm curious. I'm curious. How is it possible to have that kind of deviation from what I thought I saw? I thought I saw someone. Have a good game. You're not a great game. I thought Caleb Williams was okay. And I. It was obvious that there were some passes that weren't great. There's some stuff a little off here and there, but he's been so much better at not taking sacks and keeping plays alive. I just think it's. It's. It's strange. And I'm sure we could have Sam Munson on here and he could tell us, here's why. Here was expected yards above average, expected points above average, and there's huge differentials in what was expected and what wasn't. That we can. We can definitively or close to definitively have our analysts watching tape say this was the fault of Caleb Williams and nobody else. But I. I would need to hear that.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah. And how do they create the expected expectations?
Dan Bernstein
Well, we went. Because he was leading in that.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, I know. In the. In the expected completion percentage.
Dan Bernstein
Correct.
Matt Abaticola
But I just, like, what other factors are there that make this grade what it is? And also when I brought up Swift and Luther Burden, the. I mean, this. To me, watching that game, it seems like there should be a greater discrepancy in their. In their grades, I guess. And I get it. You're doing it on an individual basis, not looking overall and taking account of the impact on the game or what they did to the game itself. I understand all that. It just, it's. It seems like the grade shouldn't have been that close. And I don't understand how Justin Fields graded out higher than Caleb Williams. I mean, and listen, my. My brain. I'm not. I'm not stupid. I can understand it, that one graded higher than the other. But from what I saw in those games, how is his grade so much? Like, how is this grade worse?
Dan Bernstein
This is telling me.
Matt Abaticola
I'm not saying he played a flawless game. He didn't. He missed passes, he took a hit that he should have taken on the sideline. I mean, there was things that he didn't do well. But overall, how was his grade lower than Justin Fields, who had one of.
Dan Bernstein
The worst quarterback games anybody's ever seen.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Who had a total in the passing game, including his nine sacks, the overall value of the passing game was minus 10 yards.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, that's crazy.
Dan Bernstein
And also part of it too, I'm sure is what happens on a play where Theo Benedict is whistled for being lined up offsides on an absolutely gorgeous pass and gorgeous catch that we all saw happen that then unhappened. And those obviously affect the way we feel about some of these things too. No, but I wanted to be clear. I'm not mad at pro football folk.
Matt Abaticola
No, I'm not angry about it. I just want to understand it more.
Dan Bernstein
I don't think that the people compiling these stats and handing out these grades based on their metrics, I don't think they dislike the Bears. I don't think there's a conspiracy. I don't think there's an agenda. I do think there is a discrepancy between what I saw and what I thought and what this says. And I just would like to know why.
Matt Abaticola
No, you're incorrect that you don't think there's a discrepancy. There totally is a discrepancy. I mean, we, we watched both quarterbacks play, we saw them do their jobs on the football field. And these grades don't make sense based on what our eyes told us. They just don't. Like he had a, he didn't even have. It's not like, it's not like Justin had a tough game or he had an okay game. He had a terrible game. I mean the finish with negative 10 passing yards.
Dan Bernstein
So it's very possible there could be a satisfying explanation. Say, hey, we dinged him for this, we dinged him for that. We didn't give as much credit as you did for this. But football for me is always going to be a sport that is going to make quantification difficult.
Matt Abaticola
Agreed.
Dan Bernstein
The nature of the true team game of having to understand every single person's assignment, it shouldn't be that hard for quarterbacks though. Like, I can understand some discrepancies in if you're grading out every pass block and every run block and every decision that's made where you, you think they're in a certain gap assignment or you think that that guy's supposed to be blocking the six technique and he ends up turning and blocking somebody else could be a split second decision in the moment that he was coached to make. But you don't know that.
Matt Abaticola
Right. And I don't want to get too meatbally with you here on this conversation on this topic because you know, it's a stat based grade. But in football, and like I said, the baseball's individual football is more. More team, truly team. There are intangibles in football that I believe and maybe you don't believe in that come through in the sport of football that don't in baseball. In other sports, there are things that. That you can't measure that Justin or that Caleb Williams can do on the field, that. That can be quantified.
Dan Bernstein
Part of it. It is a sport that could be.
Matt Abaticola
That a positive impact on how the team plays.
Dan Bernstein
You can try harder.
Matt Abaticola
You can try harder.
Dan Bernstein
Football, you can't. You can't play baseball harder.
Matt Abaticola
You can't.
Dan Bernstein
And you can play football harder.
Matt Abaticola
And because you can play harder and it is a lot of times emotionally driven. You can be. And again, again, very meatbally. But you can be inspired by a guy on a football team to try harder, to play harder. You can do that. I think Caleb Williams in the huddle may carry a little more of that inspiration than Justin Fields right now in a football game.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I get uncomfortable in some of these areas.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, I know.
Dan Bernstein
But you're right. I'm not arguing with you that. Absolutely more intangible, unquantifiable aspects to explaining why someone plays well or poorly. But if you are actually saying what the PFF people are saying is job done, job not done. This or yards, meat on the bone, yards left on the field, expected point differential, you know, expected points added, these kinds of things. That's what they're measuring based on a throw being slightly off or timing being a little late. Maybe on that, the past we talk about on the goal line, the fact that he didn't throw to Kyle Menung guy.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Maybe it would have been a touchdown. Significant. That's what I'm saying. Maybe like that should have been seven points there. Six points. That wasn't six points. So I'm allowing for some of these things. But it's not his fault that Zacchaeus drops a pass. We could have taken it all the way down the field.
Matt Abaticola
Right. And we don't know how that goes into the grading.
Dan Bernstein
I don't either.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
So did they think he threw it too hard or too soft?
Matt Abaticola
Right. We could. I mean, that's. That's a conversation we can. We can establish.
Dan Bernstein
And this is not a blanket condemnation of these stats.
Matt Abaticola
No, not at all. And it's nothing about pff. It's just about understanding. Because my eyes tell me one thing and your grade tells me another. Yeah, I know.
Dan Bernstein
I get it. Why are you telling me my eyes are this Wrong. Because I do trust them. And I love being able to have the baseball numbers sometimes in real time. But now that we have real time data for a batting event, to know when a ball is smoked, to know when we've got a launch angle and we have, it would have been out of this many parks, but the wind kept in this park on this day, or had this been elevated 3 degrees, it's a home run 95% of the time. Now that we know that, now that we have expected stats, we can tell the guy's big. You don't have to say, I think he's been barreling it up. Has he or hasn't he? It's all right there. Correct.
Matt Abaticola
But like you brought, you bring up that, that drop by Zacchaeus. How do they take in their grading and how are they able to say, well, yeah, Caleb did everything perfect on that. He gets the max score or the max grade for that particular release on the throw. The throw, the placement of the throw and the drop has nothing to do with Caleb Williams. Or can they say, oh, he didn't throw it hard enough. Measure the velocity had he throw it hard, too soft or he threw it too hard.
Dan Bernstein
Right. Or the timing, do they take that.
Matt Abaticola
Into account for it?
Dan Bernstein
Maybe, but I just. This one.
Matt Abaticola
And then if so, does a receiver get a higher grade for that particular play because, oh, that ball was thrown too soft or that ball was thrown too hard and yet he still was able to catch it.
Dan Bernstein
This. I'm just circling this as an outlier of something that to me, when it, when and if you choose to look askance at this iteration of NFL metrics, I get it. Which is why it may just be that next gen, which is the version of Statcast, where this person was running at this point at 20 miles an hour, this person was running at 18 miles an hour. This is how often this person achieves this speed. That's just vectors. That's just recorded data.
Matt Abaticola
Right.
Dan Bernstein
And if they're using that to say however many 4% of the time that pass to that place is caught, 96% of the time, it's not probability, improbability. Got it. That might be some of the next gen tracking measurements that they can use.
Matt Abaticola
So let me go to another pass that was, that was completed and that was the first down to Loveland. He had the ability to get more yards, but he didn't. Now he achieved the first down. Does that negatively. Does that negatively impact a grade on that play for Caleb Williams? The fact that more yards weren't Achieved despite the fact that they could have been achieved.
Dan Bernstein
Because the smartest thing to do at that point was secure the first down. Without question because it was third and.
Matt Abaticola
Five and he got third and six instead of getting third and eight with the idea of being hit.
Dan Bernstein
I don't know. I wonder it like a late game interception, a game ceiling interception where the best thing you can do is give yourself up, take a knee, come out in victory formation. Are you. Does the possibility that could have been a pick six way against the interceptor.
Matt Abaticola
And the fact that or is he.
Dan Bernstein
Credited, they're more likely to win the game because he was smart enough to take a knee, right? Or if somebody slides inbounds to keep the clock going like Caleb Williams did, are they saying, well, there's 2 yard, 2 easy yards or 3, 4, 5, 10 easy yards he could have picked up there, you know, had he gone, you know, deep, that guy had gone out of bounds. But because he chose to go down when he did, does that ding him?
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, that's interesting. We'll have to ask that. So, and then clearly by the ratings, without knowing Jaden Daniels. Jaden Daniels had a much better game than Caleb Williams, I would assume according to their grades. Yet he comes out as a loser on this particular game and he was the main culprit of why they lost that game with that fumble.
Dan Bernstein
Jaden Daniels was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 spots ahead of Caleb Williams at 64.6. So he was nearly 20 points better. Okay, that's three touchdowns and one interception.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, really interesting.
Dan Bernstein
I just. And again, I'm not, I'm not complaining.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, no, I just want to understand better.
Dan Bernstein
I would like to know why the discrepancy and I'm just curious because I like these metrics and I'd like to understand them better. I have just got a intellectual football curiosity here that feels unsatisfied because you understand them good.
Matt Abaticola
You want to understand them better so that you can understand the best all.
Dan Bernstein
This highfalutin book larnin'.
Matt Abaticola
Hey, if you're looking for a tobacco free product that delivers a kick of nicotine that you need maybe for an extra boost in your day or something to help you take the edge off. Lucy products has exactly what you need. That's right, it's called Lucy. Check them out online at Lucy Co. That's Lucy Co. Their products are 100% pure nicotine, always tobacco free. They come in pouches, gum and breakers. Now breakers are their pouches that have a burstable flavor capsule inside. You can Crush anytime for an instant burst of hydration and flavor. They're available in a variety of great flavors like mint, wintergreen, apple ice, mango berry, citrus espresso, apple cider, cinnamon and pomegranate. There's definitely a flavor there for you. So let's level up your nicotine routine with Lucy. Go to Lucy Co FP20 and use promo code FP20 to receive 20% off your first order. Lucy does have a 30 day refund policy in case you change your mind. You can even set yourself up with a subscription and have Lucy delivered straight to your door. So don't wait. Order your Lucy today, whether it's gum pouches or breakers. Use promo code FP20 for 20% off your first order or go to Lucy right now. And here comes the fine print. Lucy products are only for adults of legal age and every order is age verified. Warning. This product contains nicotine and nicotine is an addictive chemical.
Dan Bernstein
I know somebody who enjoys those breakers. Who? Somebody close to you? Yes, I do. I found out if somebody told me goes, hey, he really likes these. Lucy's likes the Breakers. I said, great. Yep.
Matt Abaticola
I shared some of the products and.
Dan Bernstein
I'm happy to hear that.
Matt Abaticola
Had the apple cider and said it was really, really good.
Dan Bernstein
Okay.
Matt Abaticola
Really, really good. So, yeah, good. Positive report. Love to hear that.
Dan Bernstein
Outstanding. Now, there was also something that came out of the Caleb Williams press conference, beyond a lot of what we talked about on DBU today that brought back. It recalled something that you had mentioned in this space yesterday.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, I asked you if I was seeing something that was there, that wasn't there about Caleb and his inaccuracy or the, the inactory getting worse while throwing on the run. And we, you know, we, we shelved it and said, all right, let's keep an eye on it and let's watch it as we go through to kind of understand if I was seeing something that was there. And then Caleb actually talked about it yesterday when he met the media.
Caleb Williams
It's weird. I was sitting, sitting upstairs with, with Coach the other day and we were just talking about. It's just like. It's like my steps are off and my. On the movement, like when I'm moving, you know, I've been, I've been missing on the run a little bit more than I usually do. So it's been a little weird dealing with that. So it's just finding that that's probably the biggest thing because, you know, there's big plays, it turns into a second play, you know, Something happens, play breaks down or anything like that, and it turns to a second play. Like the, the hit I took on the sideline that I shouldn't have taken right before half, you know, just not really on the same page. I didn't feel in the right position to be able to deliver Lou the ball, and so I took a hit and I should have just gave him a shot, especially, you know, in that situation. There was a guy about 20, 30 yards, you know, deep, and, you know, I didn't. I didn't give him a shot right there. But those, Those type of moments, just feeling comfortable and on the run right now has been, you know, one of my things that I've been working on in practice and, you know, kind of looking over on. On the film and things like that to be. So, I mean, we can have these big explosive plays that happen within, you know, every game that we've had so far.
Matt Abaticola
So. Something he has to work on. It's something that he's been missing more lately now. Well, here's what's interesting, though, and I will. I will give him this. Well, first of all, yeah, when he got. When he took that shot from Louvoo on the sideline, I was screaming, throw the ball. Throw the ball. Throw the ball. Throw the ball. I don't know what he was waiting for, so I'm glad he recognized that.
Dan Bernstein
Louvre's a menace, by the way.
Matt Abaticola
He is a menace. He flexed over him, too. I'm surprised there wasn't a flag given on that. But what he's talking about there, though, too, is he's talking about after a play breaks down, this. He's not talking about an initial rollout, like where the play design rollout and the rollout to make the throw. He's talking about when something breaks down and being able to make those throws because he called him a secondary play. So it's not designed, but it's coming out. So I'm going to give him a little bit of something there because there's chaos. There's something happening that they're deviating from what's designed and what's called do we know? But he's still not throwing the ball as well as maybe he once has on the run, even though it's a breakdown and it's what he's calling a secondary play.
Dan Bernstein
Okay, let's talk about secondary plays and. Or scramble rules here.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Do we know the Bears, Ben Johnson scramble rules?
Matt Abaticola
I don't. I don't know. And. And that's also. I'm glad you asked that because I was going to bring that up. There's more than just Caleb in that because this is a team activity and a team play. When there's a breakdown, what's assigned, what are you supposed to do? Well, that's, what are you supposed to go? Everybody's not on the same page.
Dan Bernstein
So I think a lot of that, a lot of, of what has made Patrick Mahomes look like a genius is how Andy Reid coaches his scrambles. There is method to madness. There has to be method to madness. And obviously somebody's always going to target their favorite guy who can feel the situation a little bit. But that kind of telepathy that you get with receivers who, who know not only that you can gravitate to a space, but that the quarterback has the, both the eyes, the timing and the arm to find you there. And sometimes that means go down the field, sometimes it means tear ass back, to use a basketball term. Get, show a target, get back. How many times did we see Jordy Nelson on the packers just come out of nowhere? He wasn't in the screen. Wasn't in the screen plays breaking down, near sack, near sack. And then it's a sideline catch on a comebacker to Jordy Nelson.
Matt Abaticola
Right.
Dan Bernstein
Maybe crazy because it was. Reminded me for people who played in television, like in television scrolling soccer, when you could leave one side of the screen and come back in the other.
Matt Abaticola
I loved in television, oh the best. The football was the awesome.
Dan Bernstein
No football.
Matt Abaticola
I love the football.
Dan Bernstein
You have to rule out the play though. You're, you're, you're, you can't use the run to one side, throwback to the other. Oh, it's indefensible. You get four yards every time and march on the field. Nobody scores. So there, there, there are, there are hacks in there that you have to outlaw. Nine. Nine.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, I was trying to remember what it was.
Dan Bernstein
Nine, seven one three.
Matt Abaticola
Nine seven one three.
Dan Bernstein
You have to outlaw that one. But the idea of a receiver all of a sudden appearing on the screen because that's the rule. Because you've got a call, you've got some kind of call where even if receivers got his back to the play, that there's an understanding of be ready. Because the thing about Caleb, he's got all that stuff.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
He's got the. Oh no, he threw across his body. You can't do that. Sometimes certain guys can. Which leads me to another point when it comes to throwing on the run, what they call a secondary play, I don't want him Thinking about his feet. I really don't. Right, George, get the guy the ball. That's playground football.
Matt Abaticola
Throw him the ball.
Dan Bernstein
I want you to think about your feet when you're in the pocket and you've got to get better from the pocket. Everybody says that. Absolutely. In your rhythm passing game, your feet are critical. Once that part of the play is.
Matt Abaticola
Over, timing's out the window.
Dan Bernstein
I don't care if you're on your back foot, your front foot, standing on your feet, head, no feet. I don't care. Right.
Matt Abaticola
Make the play, throw the ball, make the.
Dan Bernstein
Get it to him.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, get it.
Dan Bernstein
Don't think. Where are my feet? Where are my feet? Where are my feet? There's a man who's trying to rip your head off, Right?
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, but there is, there is something. Yeah. I'm curious to know we had ever asked that of Ben Johnson. Like what, what does that look like? What do you, what do you guys coach? What do you teach? So you're all on the same page. Like it's, it's really simple for my football, Dan. It's like I tell Hank, hey, if the play breaks down, there's no pass, fucking run.
Dan Bernstein
Well, because.
Matt Abaticola
Just run.
Dan Bernstein
Because a kid at that age doesn't have the ar. So just run. I was laughing the whole time. I hadn't. I don't watch a lot of youth football, but seeing that it's a normal size football field that you play on, I thought you played on a little field.
Matt Abaticola
Oh, no, it's regular size.
Dan Bernstein
It's a regular regulation football field. And then because a guy would break it to the outside and he would still go to the outside and he's still going. And he's still going. It reminded me of watching might hockey on an Olympic rink.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
What? And you just.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
There's a breakaway, there's a coach.
Matt Abaticola
At times we're like, hey, cut it up field. Like if you get a lane, cut it up.
Dan Bernstein
You don't need to go. There's so much that way.
Matt Abaticola
Like we call it out, but you don't need to run 40 yards to your right.
Dan Bernstein
But on the other team, on your opponent, they had that one really, really fast guy.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
And all that was. And all he did was go straight to the sideline and then 90 degree turned north or south.
Matt Abaticola
It helps when you're that fast.
Dan Bernstein
Right? Because he just built all that speed out to the side and then cut it up.
Matt Abaticola
It's really annoying.
Dan Bernstein
But I remember like these, the little kids in the hockey game on the Giant rink and you'd see a breakaway starting in your own defensive zone and you'd be like, o, that's a breakaway. But he had to go from inside his own blue line all the way down. I'm like, oh, no, here we go. Stop it, kid. Come on. Your heart just sinks. But the concept of scramble rules is something I would like to ask that I would like to know. Or maybe it would be something if somebody ever gets a chance to sit down with Ben Johnson, just say, look to the extent that you can. What are your rules of thumb? What do you tell guys? Because football players need it simple.
Matt Abaticola
They need to all be on the same page.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. And just they keep it simple. Your job, go that way, Your job, go this way. You run over here, stand in the middle, hold up your hands, you scream, I'm open. I'm sure it is fairly simple. And maybe every team has a similar construction. Maybe there's just NFL best practices, but I would think it has to do with the throws your quarterback can and can't make.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah. It's funny every once in a while I'll let, I'll let the kids just call their own play.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, got to do that because.
Matt Abaticola
Only because it gets back to that playground mentality where they're all just very relaxed and they're just having a lot of fun when they're running around.
Dan Bernstein
It's like in summer baseball league, sometimes in the high school collegiate league or the coach would be like, first out to a position, plays that position.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, great.
Dan Bernstein
You want to play shortstop, run out to shortstop.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Our practice, we had a left handed third baseman at one point.
Matt Abaticola
Oh, seriously?
Dan Bernstein
Oh, yeah.
Matt Abaticola
And like our practice on Monday, we had, we had. I only had 14 kids and I just, I split them up into sevens and I said, go, go play scrimmage. Here's the, here's your offensive line, here's your receivers. Here's the rules. Go play and just watch them relax and kind of feel more comfortable. That's kind of stuff.
Dan Bernstein
Because sports should be fun.
Matt Abaticola
Should be fun. But, but I like that point about, stop worrying about your feet. When that secondary play is, is in action, just make either run, gain yards, don't get hit and just throw the ball. Like get the ball out. Don't worry about your feet, throw the ball.
Dan Bernstein
I don't know what great scramble quarterback was ever thinking about his feet.
Matt Abaticola
I gotta get my feet in the right place, Right.
Dan Bernstein
Do you think Fran Tarkenton was thinking about having his feet in the right place?
Matt Abaticola
It seemed like not getting murdered.
Dan Bernstein
No, he Was thinking, where's Ahmad? Where's Ahmad? Where is he?
Matt Abaticola
Throw Ahmad the ball.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I think maybe we're going to try to get Ahmad Rashad the ball real quick.
Matt Abaticola
Injury report update on both sides of, of, of the teams for this game Sunday. Jonah Jackson, yesterday, did not practice. Grady Jarrett, dnp, DJ Moore, did not practice. And the injuries listed as hip, slash, groin. I hadn't heard hip before.
Dan Bernstein
No, that's the first I've heard.
Matt Abaticola
First time I'm seeing hip. Yeah. Cairo Santos, right thigh, did not practice. Noah Sewell, concussion, did not practice. Austin Booker, Travis Homer, had full participation.
Dan Bernstein
Okay.
Matt Abaticola
On the Saint side, Alvin Camara, did not practice. No injury listed. And then they had John Ridgeway, full practice. Lante Taylor, limited. Chris Olave, limited.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, okay. I think. What's the number right now? Six.
Matt Abaticola
Still is that? Yeah, I think it is. I haven't checked.
Dan Bernstein
Opened at 6. Yeah, I think that's where it is. Now after the show yesterday, Ben Johnson did give an endorsement to Cairo Santos as the starting kicker. Says when healthy, he's the starting kicker. I don't know if I believe him. I don't. I don't think he's lying. Yeah, but if Moody has another game, especially Sunday, the weather is going to be crap. The forecast is awful and it's been deteriorating ever since I mentioned that yesterday. This is going to be a huge story in the game. Let me get the latest here that at least I have on a weather app. And maybe yours is different. I always argue with the kids because it makes me crazy because they always look at what the forecast says and I always say, like, look at the radar. Don't worry about what it actually says. Look at what the radar shows you of where the rain is, where the clouds are, where the bad is. So as of now, Sunday, it says windy periods of rain early. Some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon. High of 59 winds northwest, west, northwest at 20 to 30 miles an hour. Chance of rain 80%. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 miles an hour.
Matt Abaticola
No.
Dan Bernstein
Boy, we're getting close to the Nathan Vasher San Francisco game with the return because it was blowing the field goals all over the place. That was The Patrick Manley one career bad snap day because of the wind. Yeah, 40 mile an hour gusts at that building down there. This could be. This could level the playing field.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah. So we'll see, guys, even when he now, that's the second time he's made a comments about Santos that haven't really been great endorsements.
Dan Bernstein
And if Jake Moody Goes out there in those conditions and does well and does it again. Yeah, you might have a. You might have a different conversation. All I know is it. I would say it's not closed yet. It's because you brought Moody here before the injury.
Matt Abaticola
Right. He's been here for almost four weeks.
Dan Bernstein
I think it's really important to note Moody's not here because Santos got hurt.
Matt Abaticola
I mean, he was with the team for three weeks before he was even on the field.
Dan Bernstein
He's. He was. He's not here because Santos got hurt. He's playing because Santos got hurt.
Matt Abaticola
Correct.
Dan Bernstein
But the Bears picked him up when Santos was 100% healthy.
Matt Abaticola
All right. This is. This is great.
Dan Bernstein
Okay.
Matt Abaticola
I'm so glad you brought this to close this out.
Dan Bernstein
Okay. We always ask of coaches, managers, athletes, when asked a question in a press conference, just answer it. Don't avoid it. Don't give us tons of coach speak. There's nothing that a reporter likes more than a straight, honest answer to a straight, honest question. And sometimes, unfortunately, it's so rare and so surprising that it leaves people flummoxed. Well, the Cardinals, Jonathan Gannon, who we know is a fiery guy, he's shoving his players on the sidelines. He gets mad at people. He's an emotional cat. And he was asked about his emotions because this guy was fined 100 grand for throwing a punch at his own flair.
Matt Abaticola
Not the candy bar.
Dan Bernstein
No, no. I wouldn't part with my hundred grand candy bar. I love those things. Crackly rice and all sorts of caramel. Makes you salivate thinking about it. But here, this is near the end of the press conference where Jonathan Gannon was asked a question about his history of his emotions. And I'll just let you listen in. This is Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon. Coach, how early in your career did you have to start trying to figure out how to take the emotion out of coaching? As far as when you. When you have all these injuries and you have all these different pieces. When's the first time that you can recall that? 2007, when our quarterback went to jail. Coach, thank you.
Matt Abaticola
It's so good.
Dan Bernstein
Okay. Asked and answered.
Matt Abaticola
That was not the expected answer.
Dan Bernstein
2007, when our quarterback went to jail. That is when he was a defensive quality control assistant with the Falcons. And Michael Vick pled guilty to his federal charges in August of that year and then missed two seasons in prison.
Matt Abaticola
It's just. It's. It's really good. It's really good.
Dan Bernstein
He knew. He knew it just. And it wasn't necessarily injuries or anything like that, but asked about when you have to control your emotions and your starting quarterback goes to federal prison before the season starts. Probably a good time to control your emotions, I guess. 2007, when our quarterback went to jail. Coach, thank you.
Caleb Williams
All right.
Dan Bernstein
No. Okay.
Matt Abaticola
Nothing else to add.
Dan Bernstein
All right. All right. That'll do it.
Matt Abaticola
Okay, then. Thank you for your time. Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
And that's gonna do it for Forward Progress. So tomorrow we're gonna have some fun on this show, are we not?
Matt Abaticola
Yes, we are. We are going to do the top 10 saints.
Dan Bernstein
No, that's DBU.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah, that's DBU.
Dan Bernstein
We're gonna do tomorrow. DBU.
Matt Abaticola
We have a guest tomorrow, Right.
Dan Bernstein
I thought you would. You know, DBU is going to be Friday feedback. Obviously, other stuff that happens, but it's gonna be Friday feedback. We had some great stuff because it's been another really busy, productive week. And then we're gonna do top 10 saints of all time.
Matt Abaticola
Yes. But on Forward progress on this here program, on this here podcast tomorrow, we have a special guest joining us, our buddy Dan Durkin.
Dan Bernstein
Yep.
Matt Abaticola
Looking forward to talking some Bears and Saints Bear stuff with you.
Dan Bernstein
Yep. One of the great football intellects in Chicago will join us to break things down, so do not miss it. And thanks for joining us today.
Matt Abaticola
Yeah. Bye, Ted.
Dan Bernstein
219, 219.
Matt Abaticola
Forward progress, a Chicago Bears podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matt Abaticola on 312 Sports.
Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast
Episode: Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields PFF Grades for Week 6
Hosts: Dan Bernstein & Matt Abbatacola
Date: October 16, 2025
This episode explores the puzzling analytical discrepancies in Pro Football Focus (PFF) player grades, centering on Caleb Williams' surprisingly low Week 6 mark, especially compared to Justin Fields. Dan and Matt break down the sometimes-baffling world of advanced football metrics, critique PFF’s evaluation methods, and weave in player performance, scheme analysis, and broader debates on analytics versus “the eye test.” They also reflect on the unquantifiable elements of football, discuss Chicago’s offensive growth, address press conference soundbites, and preview the upcoming Saints matchup.
Dan Bernstein [05:11]: “Keep it as an open item… Are the Bears actually improving in the run game, or are they taking advantage of opponent deficiencies?”
Dan Bernstein [07:49]: “In football, it's harder to distinguish whose turn it is and who is doing these things… Measuring and explaining things should never make you feel old or uncomfortable.”
[10:16] PFF Bears Week 6 Grades (Offense):
[11:41] Defensive Grades:
[13:42] Low Offensive Grades:
[16:13] Justin Fields Comparison:
Dan Bernstein [16:38]: “I want to better understand this. How is it possible to have that kind of deviation from what I thought I saw?”
Matt Abbatacola [18:46]: “From what I saw in those games, how is [Caleb Williams’] grade worse?”
Matt Abbatacola [22:19]: “Because you can play harder and it is a lot of times emotionally driven. You can be inspired by a guy on a football team to try harder, to play harder…”
Dan Bernstein [28:29]: “I would like to know why the discrepancy… I have just got intellectual football curiosity here that feels unsatisfied.”
Caleb Williams [31:16]: “It’s like my steps are off on the movement … not really on the same page…just not feeling in the right position to deliver the ball.”
Dan Bernstein [16:38]:
“How is it possible to have that kind of deviation from what I thought I saw? I thought Caleb Williams was okay... he’s been so much better at not taking sacks and keeping plays alive. I just think it’s strange.”
Matt Abbatacola [22:19]:
“You can be inspired by a guy on a football team to try harder, to play harder. I think Caleb Williams in the huddle may carry a little more of that inspiration than Justin Fields right now.”
Dan Bernstein [35:09]:
“I don’t care if you’re on your back foot, your front foot, standing on your feet, head, no feet…Get it to him. Don’t think: Where are my feet? There’s a man who’s trying to rip your head off.”
Caleb Williams [31:16]:
“...I’ve been missing on the run a little bit more than I usually do... just not really on the same page, I didn’t feel in the right position to deliver Lou the ball... that’s something I’ve been working on.”
Jonathan Gannon [45:35]:
(When asked about controlling emotion as a coach) “2007, when our quarterback went to jail.”
The show ends with humor and anticipation:
Summary Takeaway:
This episode is a deep, nuanced exploration of the limitations and mysteries of PFF’s player grading, with Dan and Matt using both stats and “the eye test” to challenge, question, and seek understanding—while keeping the Bears fan experience lively, skeptical, and fun.