Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast
Episode: Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields PFF Grades for Week 6
Hosts: Dan Bernstein & Matt Abbatacola
Date: October 16, 2025

Overview:

This episode explores the puzzling analytical discrepancies in Pro Football Focus (PFF) player grades, centering on Caleb Williams' surprisingly low Week 6 mark, especially compared to Justin Fields. Dan and Matt break down the sometimes-baffling world of advanced football metrics, critique PFF’s evaluation methods, and weave in player performance, scheme analysis, and broader debates on analytics versus “the eye test.” They also reflect on the unquantifiable elements of football, discuss Chicago’s offensive growth, address press conference soundbites, and preview the upcoming Saints matchup.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Bears’ Run Game Progress & Contextual Performance

• [02:51] Caleb Williams' on-the-run throws: Dan wonders if Caleb’s ability is improving or plateauing, especially with the increased reliance on outside zone and bootleg action.
• [03:33] Was Week 6 a breakthrough or a matchup exploit? Matt posits the Bears’ successful run game versus Washington might result from an opponent’s weakness, not just Chicago improvement.

Dan Bernstein [05:11]: “Keep it as an open item… Are the Bears actually improving in the run game, or are they taking advantage of opponent deficiencies?”

2. On Scheduling and NFL Context

• [06:02] Both hosts underscore the NFL’s unpredictability—injuries, form, and timing matter more than preseason schedule analysis or social media memes.
• [07:35] Baseball vs. Football Analytics: Baseball’s metrics are easier to separate by player; football’s fluid team aspects make definitive analysis more challenging.

Dan Bernstein [07:49]: “In football, it's harder to distinguish whose turn it is and who is doing these things… Measuring and explaining things should never make you feel old or uncomfortable.”

3. Advanced Metrics: Intrigue and Skepticism

• [10:16] PFF Bears Week 6 Grades (Offense):

  • Joe Tuney: 88
  • DeAndre Swift: 85.6
  • Luther Burden: 81.1 (with limited snaps)
  • Darnell Wright: 75.7
  • Cole Kmet: 72.1 (noted as a strong blocker despite low receiving stats)

• [11:41] Defensive Grades:

  • T.J. Edwards: 89
  • Kevin Byard: 81.2
  • Tremaine Edmonds: 80.9
  • Montez Sweat: 79.5
  • DeMarco Jackson: 75 (noted for limited snaps due to injury substitution)

• [13:42] Low Offensive Grades:

  • Notable: Olamide Zacchaeus (49.4), and lowest, Caleb Williams (46.1), despite a win and seemingly good stat line.

• [16:13] Justin Fields Comparison:

  • Fields had worse box stats (45 passing yards, 9 sacks, negative net passing yards) but graded higher than Williams by PFF.
  • Dan and Matt are baffled, asking how such a system can rate Williams so much lower than Fields.

Dan Bernstein [16:38]: “I want to better understand this. How is it possible to have that kind of deviation from what I thought I saw?”

Matt Abbatacola [18:46]: “From what I saw in those games, how is [Caleb Williams’] grade worse?”

4. Analytics vs. The Eye Test: What Are Stats Really Measuring?

• [20:54] Football’s interdependent assignments, split-second decisions, and intangibles (like effort and inspiration) are often missed by metrics.
• [22:19] “You can play football harder”—unlike baseball, effort and emotion can shift in-game performance.

Matt Abbatacola [22:19]: “Because you can play harder and it is a lot of times emotionally driven. You can be inspired by a guy on a football team to try harder, to play harder…”

• [23:25] Specific plays and dropped passes are discussed for their possible impact on grades.

5. PFF’s Mysterious Formula and Calls for Clarity

• Hosts emphasize they’re not anti-analytics or accusing PFF of bias, but want transparency.
• [24:09] Key Question: How does PFF’s grading account for context: dropped passes, timing, velocity, decision-making, or assignment correctness?
• [25:33] Statcast & NextGen: Dan notes that more “hard data,” like speed, probabilities, and expected completions, can sometimes offer more clarity than subjective grading.

Dan Bernstein [28:29]: “I would like to know why the discrepancy… I have just got intellectual football curiosity here that feels unsatisfied.”

6. Caleb Williams Self-Assessment & Scramble Plays

• [31:16] Clip: Caleb Williams press conference—he candidly discusses his struggles with accuracy when throwing on the run after play breakdowns (“secondary plays”), attributing it partially to mechanical issues.

Caleb Williams [31:16]: “It’s like my steps are off on the movement … not really on the same page…just not feeling in the right position to deliver the ball.”

• [33:32] ‘Scramble Rules’ and Coaching: The hosts discuss “scramble rules” for receivers, drawing comparisons to teams like the Chiefs that have systematized chaos.
• [35:09] Dan argues that after a pocket breaks down, mechanical perfection matters less than simply making a play: “I don’t care if you’re on your back foot, your front foot, standing on your feet, head, no feet. I don’t care. Make the play.”

7. Fun Moments:

• [45:35] Jonathan Gannon soundbite:
  • The Arizona Cardinals’ coach is asked about “controlling emotions;” his deadpan answer is:
    “2007, when our quarterback went to jail.”
    (Referring to Michael Vick’s imprisonment—a rare and darkly humorous press conference moment.)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Bernstein [16:38]:
  “How is it possible to have that kind of deviation from what I thought I saw? I thought Caleb Williams was okay... he’s been so much better at not taking sacks and keeping plays alive. I just think it’s strange.”

• Matt Abbatacola [22:19]:
  “You can be inspired by a guy on a football team to try harder, to play harder. I think Caleb Williams in the huddle may carry a little more of that inspiration than Justin Fields right now.”

• Dan Bernstein [35:09]:
  “I don’t care if you’re on your back foot, your front foot, standing on your feet, head, no feet…Get it to him. Don’t think: Where are my feet? There’s a man who’s trying to rip your head off.”

• Caleb Williams [31:16]:
  “...I’ve been missing on the run a little bit more than I usually do... just not really on the same page, I didn’t feel in the right position to deliver Lou the ball... that’s something I’ve been working on.”

• Jonathan Gannon [45:35]:
  (When asked about controlling emotion as a coach) “2007, when our quarterback went to jail.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:51 – Dan raises questions about Caleb Williams’ on-the-run throws and bootleg fit.
• 10:16 – Detailed reading of Bears’ PFF offensive grades.
• 13:42 – Offensive “bottom five” and Caleb Williams’ shockingly low 46.1 grade.
• 16:13-19:14 – Justin Fields’ stats/grade comparison; hosts express confusion and curiosity.
• 22:19 – Discussion on emotion, inspiration and intangibles in football vs. measurable stats.
• 24:09-26:09 – How do PFF/NFL metrics account for context; hosts search for clarity.
• 31:16 – Caleb Williams discusses his struggles throwing on the run (direct quote, press conference).
• 33:32-36:32 – Deep dive on "scramble rules" and mechanics after a play breaks down.
• 45:35 – Jonathan Gannon’s press conference quip (“2007, when our quarterback went to jail”).

Closing Notes & Preview

The show ends with humor and anticipation:

• Discussion of weather potentially impacting the upcoming Saints game.
• Next episode will feature football analyst Dan Durkin as a guest.

Summary Takeaway:
This episode is a deep, nuanced exploration of the limitations and mysteries of PFF’s player grading, with Dan and Matt using both stats and “the eye test” to challenge, question, and seek understanding—while keeping the Bears fan experience lively, skeptical, and fun.