Forward Progress – A Chicago Bears Podcast

Special Guest: Clay Harbor, NFL Insider & 9-year NFL veteran

Hosts: Dan Bernstein & Matt Abbatacola
Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the Chicago Bears’ playoff matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, featuring nuanced tactical analysis, roster critique, and playoff expectations. The hosts, Dan and Matt, are joined by former NFL tight end Clay Harbor, who lends his player’s perspective on game plans, matchups, and the X-factors that cold Chicago weather and personnel will play. Conversations range from deep schematic dives (the Rams’ dagger concept), the Bears’ offensive goals, special teams vulnerabilities, and the burdens on key playmakers like Caleb Williams and Colston Loveland.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bears’ Defensive Anxiety: Stopping Stafford and the Rams

• Hosts’ Worries: Dan expresses skepticism about stopping Matthew Stafford’s high-octane offense – “You really don’t. ... I’m freaked out thinking about how you stop Matthew Stafford because you really don't.” [01:00]
• Stafford’s Blitz Splits:
  • Matthew Stafford thrives vs the blitz:
    • Blitzed on 33% of dropbacks
    • 125.4 passer rating, 32 TDs, 1 INT when blitzed.
    • Most interceptions thrown when only 4 rushers: “So 32 of 46 were against the blitz ... when opponents rushed four, he threw seven [of his eight interceptions].” [09:34]
• The 'Dagger' Concept:
  • “It’s a deep clear-out ... and a dig underneath. So you put defenders in conflict ... Stafford is incredibly effective at finding the layers in the defense.” [04:00]
  • Effective defense requires disciplined quarters coverage, but the Bears lack a reliable front four pass rush.

2. Bears’ Offensive Approach and Pressure on Caleb Williams

• Opening Drive Emphasis: Bears have struggled to start quickly but must avoid panic if they fall behind early.
• Game Plan Consistency: “Don't get derailed or out of your game plan ... possession is precious, don't go three-and-out multiple times.” [02:23, 10:27]
• Commitment to the Run: “You're gonna need to run the ball if you're gonna be successful in this game.” [02:50]
• Tight End Usage & 13 Personnel: Both teams heavily feature three tight ends, presenting unique schematic challenges and opportunities (noted with Colston Loveland’s versatility).

3. Personnel & Matchups: Concerns and Opportunities

Front Four/Pash Rush Concerns:

• The Bears haven’t generated a consistent pass rush all season, leading to concern over whether they can disrupt Stafford at all.
  • “Their front four can’t do anything. They haven’t done anything all year. Why should we expect it now?” [08:19]
  • Montez Sweat labeled a “good number two, not a main guy” pass rusher. [14:34]
• Possible X-Factor:
  • Clay Harbor: Austin Booker “might be a pro Bowler someday ... you gotta hope he and Sweat can get some pressure.” [30:58]

Rams’ Offense and Chiefs to Contain:

• Puka Nacua continues to break records and is a near-impossible cover; “He’s probably going to get his. ... This guy is not only averaging 95 yards per game in the regular season ... he's averaging even more and the most passing yards per games in the playoffs.” [30:58]
• The Rams have the 7th-ranked rushing offense, with strong tackle play and efficient play-action.

Coverage Decisions:

• Man coverage is risky against the Rams’ receivers – “All it takes is one step ... that’s not a first down, it’s a touchdown.” [13:23]
• The Bears may resort to ‘busy’ defensive fronts – showing various looks, shifting presnap, trying to confuse Stafford.
  • But: “Stafford ... has seen everything ... he’s watching film as we speak to try to figure out what indications the Bears didn't even know they were giving in some of that movement.” [08:19]

Weather Impact:

• Cold January Chicago weather is considered a true home-field advantage.
  • Clay Harbor: “It does affect you ... Matt Stafford’s career splits at Soldier Field: in 12 games, 16 TD, 15 INT – it’s a different environment.” [25:31]

4. Tight End Play – Colston Loveland Discussion

• Loveland’s versatility in blocking and receiving emphasized.
• Clay Harbor: “He’s too big for cornerbacks ... too fast for linebackers. … There's nothing they're going to be able to do.” [35:53]
• Bears will look to move Loveland around, attack Rams' weak-spot defender Quinton Lake in slot (who surrendered 90 yards last week).

5. Special Teams Notes & 'Hidden Yardage'

• Rams have had issues with special teams, including a late-season coaching change, a blocked punt, and difficulties fielding kicks.
  • Clay Harbor: “That’s somewhere the Bears can really thrive ... Kyro Santos is used to this [weather]. ... No kicker likes to come into Chicago, especially when it’s 20 degrees.” [41:14]

6. Bears’ Progression & Maturity – Caleb Williams

• Clay Harbor: “His comprehension of the offense ... is probably where I've seen the most growth. … Now he's identifying coverages and getting into plays that work for him.” [39:32]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Stafford vs the Blitz

  “When there is a fifth rusher, his rating is 125.4. And it gets worse. He has 32 touchdowns and one interception. 32 touchdowns, one interception against an extra rusher.”
  — Dan Bernstein [09:32]

• The Defensive Dilemma

  “I wish I had a right answer for you ... there’s always like an equal and opposite reaction that makes me want to throw up.”
  — Dan Bernstein [12:52]

• Cold Weather as Home Field

  “There's no way to simulate that in practice … It was 82 in LA today. Guess what? I'm used to Jacksonville now. It does affect you.”
  — Clay Harbor [25:31]

• Colston Loveland’s Mismatches

  “I'm too big for this [cornerback]. If you want to put a safety on me, fine. I've run better routes. Linebacker? Thank you. I am way too fast for this guy.”
  — Clay Harbor [35:53]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bears defensive reality check & need for offensive firepower: [01:00]
• Dagger concept explainer and defensive struggles: [04:00]
• Expanded discussion on Stafford vs. the blitz: [09:00–10:00]
• Montez Sweat, Austin Booker and pass rush woes: [13:23–15:51]
• Listener Q: Ozzie Tropillo's injury explained by medical expert: [21:25–23:19]
• Clay Harbor joins—cold weather, Chicago roots, NFL stories: [23:52–27:23]
• Discussing Bears tight ends’ role and Rams 3-4 front: [27:23–30:10]
• Stopping dagger/Stafford and Puka Nacua’s historical production: [30:10–33:58]
• Colson Loveland matchup issues and schematic chess match: [33:58–36:22]
• On play-action, running vs. zone, and Rams' defensive strengths: [36:22–39:23]
• Special teams and Chicago’s hidden playoff edge: [41:10–44:25]
• Fan banter—superstitious sweater, pizza, and fandom fun: [48:54–51:58]

Tone & Style

The episode mixes hard-nosed, stats-driven football conversation with regular injections of Chicago sports fandom, humor, and authenticity—creating a vibrant environment that’s both accessible to casual listeners and satisfying for analytical diehards. Clay Harbor’s presence brings personal anecdotes and a player’s shade of insight to the mix.

Summary Takeaway

• The Bears face a daunting challenge against Stafford and the Rams’ offense, and may need to win a shootout unless their pass rush or defensive disguises can create unexpected big plays.
• Success will hinge on gameplan discipline, the effectiveness of the run game, and innovative use of TE Colston Loveland—plus the edge provided by frigid Soldier Field.
• Special teams and intangibles (cold, home field, chaos) could tip a close contest.
• Despite fears, there’s optimism grounded in tactical hope and the spirit of Chicago’s playoff football.

Notable Closing Words:

“Let’s go, Bears.”
— Clay Harbor [45:23]

“Join us live for the postgame show right here on Forward Progress as we celebrate a Bears victory and talk about a NFC championship game at Soldier Field.”
— Matt Abbatacola [53:05]