Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast

Episode: Matt Miller - ESPN NFL Draft Analyst & Insider

Host: Dan Bernstein (with producer Matt Abbatacola sidelined by illness)
Guest: Matt Miller (ESPN NFL Draft Analyst; @NFLDraftScout)
Date: December 3, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation with ESPN’s Matt Miller, focusing on the 2025 NFL Draft class, a detailed assessment of the Chicago Bears’ surprising 9-3 season, and the development of quarterback Caleb Williams. Bernstein and Miller dig into positional value, team-building strategies, and what the future may hold for the Bears and the draft class. The discussion is candid, analytical, and peppered with sharp observations appreciated by serious Bears and NFL fans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025 NFL Draft Class Breakdown

[00:48-02:37]

• Defensive Strength: Miller emphasizes this class is particularly deep at defensive line, especially edge rusher/defensive end. Several top prospects (e.g., Reuben Bain, Caleb Downs) are not at the typical “premium” positions, setting up philosophical debates for GMs.
• Quarterback Question Marks: Many top QBs (Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore, Ty Simpson) are either young or lack extensive starting experience—an issue for NFL evaluators.

Quote:
"I think defensive end prospects are going to dominate the first 10 or 15 selections…there is right now a lack of great quarterback play."
— Matt Miller (01:38)

2. Positionless Defensive Players & Draft Evaluation

[02:37-04:31]

• Versatility Trend: Discussion of prospects like Arvell Reese, who don't fit neatly into one position—a trend similar to Micah Parsons and Derwin James.
• Prospect Utilization: Miller argues for maximizing such players’ pass-rush potential but celebrates their flexibility.

Quote:
"If I had to pick one position for Arvell Reese, I would say go get the quarterback. That's where the money's at. That's where the impact is."
— Matt Miller (03:12)

3. The Bears’ 2025 Season: Assessment & Perspective

[04:31-07:43]

• Surpassing Expectations: Bernstein and Miller discuss the Bears’ unexpected success, highlighting key wins and overall record.
• Caleb Williams’ Development: While Williams’ growth has been “non-linear,” the Bears’ success is impressive amid his learning curve.
• Team-Building Praise: The show credits offensive play-design (Ben Johnson), the run game, and the development of skill players like Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.

Quote:
"No one expected this team in year one of Ben Johnson and year two of Caleb Williams to be where they are…You just have to be tickled with the development and the fact that you're winning while your quarterback develops."
— Matt Miller (06:04)

4. Caleb Williams: Scouting, Accuracy, and Growth

[07:43-13:45]

• NFL vs. College Play: Williams is showing better pocket patience and timing—less “USC chaos,” more operating within structure.
• Accuracy Issues: Williams’ off-target throws and low completion % are acknowledged, but Miller says these issues were not flagged on his college scouting report and are likely fixable via technique and experience.
• Context Matters: New scheme, new playmakers, and the complexity of Ben Johnson’s offense are factors in the adjustment process.

Quote:
"I think what we're seeing this year is he's more patient and more aware in the pocket. It's not as chaotic as it was…He's playing with better timing, better poise."
— Matt Miller (07:43)

Quote:
"If it's a technique thing...accuracy can be fixed if it's one of those two things. I never saw anything at USC or at Oklahoma that made me think, okay, this guy's just going to be inaccurate."
— Matt Miller (11:49)

5. Running Back Value in the Modern NFL

[13:45-17:46]

• Draft Economics: The show discusses how backs like Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley buck the trend but affirms it's hard to justify high picks on RBs unless the team context is just right.
• Bears’ Rookie RBs: Kyle Monangai draws comparisons to high-profile backs, but lack of “home run” speed is noted.
• Chicken-and-Egg Problem: Is production about talent, environment, or both?

Quote:
"For running backs, it's kind of the same conversation of, sure, this player is great, but are we a good enough team that this running back is going to elevate us? Because if you can't throw the ball, it really doesn't matter how good your running back is."
— Matt Miller (16:50)

6. Colston Loveland: Health and Star Potential

[17:46-19:39]

• Loveland’s Upside: Seen as a “joker” tight end and potentially a star, but legitimate health and durability concerns persist from his college days.
• Team’s Role: The Bears must help Loveland “protect himself,” including giving him time to physically mature and recover as needed.

Quote:
"He's got to continue to fill out his frame while not losing some of that speed and agility that makes him such a mismatch weapon. But I think they have to help him protect himself a little bit."
— Matt Miller (18:28)

7. The 2025 Quarterback Draft Class—A Volatile Landscape

[19:39-23:09]

• No Clear #1: None of the QBs have a “can’t miss” profile; Miller and Bernstein both see upside but plenty of question marks.
• Experience is Critical: Miller’s rule: “25 starts is my bottom line for a player to have success in the NFL”—current class falls short.
• NIL & College Retention: College football’s new economics may incentivize more QBs to stay, further thinning draft pools.

Quote:
"There is no substitute for experience. And so now that college players are making $8 million a year at quarterback…The NFL is not going to develop you at quarterback. You come in, you get about two years if you're a high draft pick and if you don't have success, you're probably bounced."
— Matt Miller (22:10)

8. Veteran QB Carousel & Under-the-Radar Opportunities

[23:09-25:01]

• Second/Third Chance QBs: Teams may seek out talent languishing elsewhere (e.g., Mac Jones, Kyler Murray), who could be more game-ready than incoming rookies.
• Market Watch: Mac Jones is expected to be highly tradable after serviceable play in San Francisco.

Quote:
"Signing Mac Jones to a two year deal was brilliant…he's going to go for a decent amount because he played well when Brock Purdy was out."
— Matt Miller (23:54)

9. Can the Bears Win the Super Bowl?

[25:11-26:32]

• Open NFC Race: Miller is bullish but realistic, suggesting no NFC juggernaut is so strong as to rule out the Bears, especially if they get “hot” down the stretch.
• Realistic Hope: While not picking the Bears to win it all, he thinks downplaying their chances ignores how wide the conference is open.

Quote:
"I don't think there's anyone in the [NFC] that really scares you…It's more open than it's ever been. With young teams, tend to get hot after Thanksgiving. So I think it's be a lot of fun to watch."
— Matt Miller (25:30)

10. The Changing College Football Landscape & Scouting

[26:32-27:25]

• Portal Impact: More talent migrates up to big schools, making the scout’s job somewhat easier and shifting focus to the Power Four and strong G5s.
• Data Challenges: Rapid player and coach movement pose evaluation challenges.

Quote:
"It's made my job easier because I don't watch as much small school college football anymore because those guys…are matriculating up."
— Matt Miller (27:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You just have to be tickled with the development and the fact that you're winning while your quarterback develops. I promise you, there are 25 franchises around the NFL that would love to be in this situation.” — Matt Miller (06:04)
• "Experience—there is no substitute. Mitch Trubisky, Trey Lance—there is no developing a QB in the NFL if they haven't played enough in college." — Matt Miller (22:10)
• "With young teams tend to get hot after Thanksgiving. So let's see what happens." — Matt Miller (25:55)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:48] – Introduction of Matt Miller, setting up the draft and Bears talk
• [01:38] – 2025 NFL Draft class strengths and weaknesses
• [03:02] – "Positionless" defensive prospects and utilization
• [04:31] – The Bears’ season and quarterback discourse
• [07:43] – Caleb Williams’ adjustment and upside
• [09:57] – Caleb's accuracy struggles: causes and fixability
• [13:45] – Running back draft value (Bears, Gentry, Monangai)
• [17:46] – Colston Loveland’s outlook and health
• [19:39] – 2025 quarterback draft class analysis
• [23:09] – NFL stopgap QBs: trade and market considerations
• [25:11] – Can the Bears win it all in 2025?
• [26:32] – College football’s transfer portal and impact on scouting

Takeaways for Non-Listeners

• The Bears are well ahead of reasonable expectations, contending in a wide-open NFC while their young quarterback develops.
• Caleb Williams’ growing pains are seen as normal and fixable, not worrisome.
• The incoming draft class is unusually loaded with defensive talent but lacks a slam-dunk quarterback prospect.
• Modern team-building requires careful consideration of positional value, especially at running back and quarterback.
• Chicago’s young core—including skill players like Loveland and Burden—offers real hope for sustainable success.
• Movement in college football (players, coaches, conference shuffling) is fundamentally changing how scouts approach their job.

The episode is candid, optimistic for Bears fans, and offers accessible but nuanced draft and NFL analysis.