Forward Progress – A Chicago Bears Podcast
Episode: What will Caleb Williams achieve in year 3?
Hosts: Dan Bernstein & Matt Abbatacola | Date: February 12, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode finds Dan Bernstein and Matt Abbatacola diving into the future outlook for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams as he approaches his third NFL season. Along the way, the pair touch on the Bears' stadium drama, early national season predictions, advanced rookie metrics, offseason draft strategies, and some classic Chicago sports banter (and hungry daydreaming about Chinese food). As always, the tone is a mix of analytical sharpness and lively, relatable back-and-forth.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Portage, Indiana “Hallis Harbor” Stadium Proposal
[03:07–10:20]
- The hosts revisit the headline-grabbing proposal for the Bears to move to Portage, Indiana, supposedly with a $5 billion, taxpayer-free stadium complex backed by Lou Weisbach.
- Analytical critique: Both Dan and Matt are skeptical about the funding mechanism, which relies on borrowing against future event ticket sales.
- Matt: “Isn’t that kind of a Ponzi scheme? ... Borrowing against the promise of future riches is usually something we’re taught to immediately run from.” [04:50]
- Dan: “It just doesn't sound like a very secure, stable, or realistic way to generate $5 billion.” [05:07]
- Both agree the Bears aren’t likely to leave Illinois, dismissing the proposal as “a pipe dream.”
2. National Media Hype: Early Predictions for Bears & Williams
[11:00–14:05]
- ESPN’s preseason predictions put the Bears—and especially Caleb Williams—front and center for 2026.
- Matt Bowen predicts: Bears over Bills in Super Bowl 61: “With quarterback Caleb Williams's playmaking ability, the Bears will beat Josh Allen and Joe Brady’s Bills.” [11:44]
- Dan Graziano picks: Williams as 2026 MVP: “Williams has the fourth quarter clutch gene ... he should have plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities in a tough NFC North.” [12:03]
- Field Yates (bold prediction): Williams will become All-Pro, citing improvement in completion percentage and offensive continuity. [13:12]
- The hosts view these with a mix of excitement and healthy skepticism.
- Matt: “It’s fun to think about ... but this is the August panel of ESPN experts—they just want us talking about it.” [13:52]
3. Quarterback Rankings: NFL.com’s 2026 Tiers
[15:22–22:31]
- Dan reviews Nick Shook’s ranking of every 2026 starting QB, focusing on the top 20 and the way he splits them into tiers.
- Tier 1: Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence.
- Tier 2: Includes Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Patrick Mahomes.
- Tier 3: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts, CJ Stroud.
- Discussion about the subjectivity of these rankings—the surprising placement of Daniel Jones and Patrick Mahomes stands out.
- Broader point about QB evaluation:
- Matt: “In a lot of ways [Caleb Williams has] blown up the statistical models for quarterbacks because so much of what he does is not measurable…what we define now as great quarterbacking is inherently transcendent beyond the stats that we've been using.” [21:58]
- Both agree advanced analytics and traditional stats may not fully capture Williams’s impact.
4. Rookie Impact Metrics: Pro Football Network’s Rankings
[24:04–28:18]
- Dan introduces PFSN’s (Pro Football Network) “Impact Metrics” for 2025 rookies, with multiple Bears ranking highest at their positions:
- QB: Jackson Dart (Giants)
- RB: Kyle Monangai (Bears)
- WR: Luther Burden III (Bears)
- TE: Colston Loveland (Bears)
- Interior OL: Tyler Booker (Cowboys)
- DT: Mason Graham (Browns)
- Edge: Abdul Carter (Giants)
- LB: Carson Schlesinger (Browns)
- CB: Marcus Harris (Titans)
- S: Xavier Watts (Falcons)
- Matt on Burden: “With everything I see and hear—eye test and stats test—more, more, more of Luther Burden III.” [25:46]
- Commentary: The Bears’ 2025 draft class overall receives the highest rookie grade, which Dan and Matt credit to strong draft strategy and player development: “The importance of being able to do this again and run it back ... to get guys that are impactful.” [28:21]
5. Offseason Strategy: Scouting Mid-to-Late Round Draft Gems
[29:00–34:31]
- Dan highlights two under-the-radar combine prospects he’s watching for Chicago:
- Roman Hemby (Indiana RB): Mid-round prospect with explosiveness and good hands; needs work on pass protection.
- Dan: “If a guy’s willing to learn …. that’s something you can teach.”
- Malachi Lawrence (UCF EDGE): Athletic, high-motor Day 3 pass rusher.
- Roman Hemby (Indiana RB): Mid-round prospect with explosiveness and good hands; needs work on pass protection.
- Matt expands: Success in the draft is often about a team’s unique, proprietary evaluation criteria—what exactly a coach like Ben Johnson values, possibly in very specific traits.
- “It may be the unusual things ... I think having an organization that's got a proprietary set of criteria says, we look for this from this position, and they don’t want you to know about it.”
6. Evaluating Kyle Monangai’s Speed & Role
[34:31–35:52]
- Debate about Bears RB Kyle Monangai’s speed and style:
- Dan: “He’s faster than I thought he was going to be ... maybe getting from first to third is probably a little quicker than I thought.”
- Matt: “I don’t think he’s got open-it-up and run-away-from-guys speed ... but he’s not slow either.”
7. Classic Chicago Talk, Banter, & Comfort Food
[18:13–22:39, 36:06–43:36]
- Extended riffing on the hapless White Sox front office (“They don't even know the handedness of their new first baseman”), bathroom humor, and joking about how Chinese food and pizza would be their first choices with $5 billion.
- Matt and Dan compare favorite Chinese food orders, getting listeners hungry (and themselves too).
- Matt (on what he'd do with a fortune): “I would travel more. I would fly first class or private ... and I would eat way more delivery Chinese food.” [36:59]
- Dan: “They want me to eat pizza three times a day. Done.” [39:11]
Notable Quotes
- Dan Bernstein: “It just doesn't sound like a very secure, stable, or realistic way to generate $5 billion.” [05:07]
- Matt Abbatacola: “Isn’t that kind of a Ponzi scheme? I’m no businessman, but…” [04:50]
- Matt Abbatacola: “It’s fun to think about ... but this is the August panel of ESPN experts—they just want us talking about it.” [13:52]
- Matt Abbatacola: “In a lot of ways [Caleb Williams has] blown up the statistical models for quarterbacks because so much of what he does is not measurable.” [21:58]
- Dan Bernstein: “If a guy’s willing to learn ... that’s something you can teach.” [29:20]
- Matt Abbatacola: “The fact that all somebody like Ben Johnson can do ... is know what they want. ... The key then is communicating that to your scouting staff.” [32:18]
- Matt Abbatacola: “I think having an organization that’s got a proprietary set of criteria ... that’s real reason for optimism.” [34:31]
- Dan Bernstein: “They want me to eat pizza three times a day. Done.” [39:11]
Important Segment Timestamps
- Portage Stadium Proposal & Funding: [03:07–10:20]
- ESPN’s Bears Super Bowl & MVP Picks: [11:00–14:05]
- NFL QB Rankings & Quarterbacking Analysis: [15:22–22:31]
- 2025 Rookie Impact Metrics (Bears-heavy): [24:04–28:18]
- Draft Strategy/Mid-Round Prospects: [29:00–34:31]
- Kyle Monangai Speed Debate: [34:31–35:52]
- Chinese Food & Living Large Banter: [36:06–43:36]
Tone & Language
The hosts keep things casual, irreverent, and fan-friendly, mixing key football analysis with playful asides, food talk, and some classic Chicago sarcasm. They aren’t afraid to question hype or poke fun—even at each other—while still showing deep football expertise.
Summary Usefulness:
This summary will bring non-listeners up to speed on the biggest debates around Caleb Williams, the Bears’ strategy, and offseason needs, while also capturing the show’s playful, authentic Chicago style.