← Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast
Forward Progress - A Chicago Bears Podcast
Which defensive player fits best for Dennis Allen & the Chicago Bears in the NFL Draft?
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- [00:01]
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Podcast Narrator / Storyteller
talked about it since I first moved to Oregon. The big one. The earthquake that trashed the whole West Coast. Total destruction.
- [01:17]
Dan Bernstein
Officially calling it the largest natural disaster in American history.
- [01:21]
Podcast Narrator / Storyteller
I just didn't know what would help me next. So I took it all. Even the gun. It was time.
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Dan Bernstein
Cello American Afterlife presented by Pair of Thieves the number one fiction and drama podcast in America. Listen wherever you get your favorite podcasts available now. I mean, if you're a Bears fan,
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Matt Abeticola
you're thinking Forward progress. Come on.
- [01:48]
Dan Bernstein
102192019
- [01:56]
Matt Abeticola
Forward progress a Chicago Bears podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matabeticola on 312 Sports.
- [02:06]
Dan Bernstein
Let's talk a little Bears and NFL here on Forward Progress, a Chicago Bears podcast. We are joined today by the familiar face of Patrick Finley. You can follow him on socials at Patrick Finley Finley. He covers the Bears in the NFL for the Chicago Sun Times, and we welcome him back to Forward Progress. Well, Patrick, good to see you again. And I would think right now most of the Bears work is done and I'm just interested now. And as this draft begins tomorrow, what's going to determine where they actually end up picking if they're set at 25 or if they can't wait to trade out? We don't know.
- [02:49]
Matt Abeticola
Not to give the obvious answer, but for the first time in a long time, what's going to determine who they pick is what happens in front of them. Usually they're picking so early in the draft that we have a sense of what's going to be available when they get there. That gets a little more complicated when you're drafting 25th. They claim that they have more than 25 guys who they like. So of course, every draft pick every team makes is the one that they had hoped would, would get there. But yeah, that's the difference now is, you know, we'll see if there's a run on defensive ends, we'll see if there's a run on safeties, we'll see what that board looks like when it hits 25 at what, 9, 39, 45
- [03:26]
Dan Bernstein
on Thursday night around there, if it ends up being a 25, where they end up picking. I was talking about this earlier on Unfiltered, and it is the idea that it's been 15 years since the Bears have made a pick this high. It is late and it goes back to Gabe Karimi, you know, several years before that it was Greg Olson at 31. So you're talking about a Bear super bowl team and a Bears NFC championship team. And since then, in the intervening time between 2011 and Gabe Karimi and now they're all these picks have been high enough and the Bears have been bad enough that there's a sense that going into the draft of, boy, we really need this, gotta hit on this guy. This is, this guy's really gonna help us not be bad anymore. And it's, I think it might be hard for a Bears fan, a younger Bears fan who for the first time is looking at this the way a lot of us grew up with Bears first round picks and like, man, welcome to the team. Hope you can help. You know, this is, this is a, an honor for you to be here now that this is a good thing. You're coming to the Chicago Bears now. You're coming to plays with Caleb Williams and, and Ben Johnson. So the entire mentality I think is just a little bit different around, boy, the Bears had better get somebody good. And now I kind of look at it as the, the ultimately the class should be expected to contribute, but there's nobody that's going to be likely a massive difference maker.
- [04:59]
Matt Abeticola
No. And you know, we've talked about this in the media room all off season, is that it's just a different feeling now. And you know, this is, this must be how good teams live. I think part of the draft pick thing, you know, if you're a Bears fan, you're just used to having a top 10 pick. Part of it is we need you to come help us and come save us. But the other part of it is this is what we get for the year of suffering. This is the payoff. The payoff is we get the shiny toy after watching our favorite team drive us crazy for 17 weeks a year. Now it's, it's the opposite. Like you said, now it's, you know, we're pretty set at the, at the important things. Now, how do we kind of fill in, you know, kind of paint the corners a little bit, fill in the edges with, you know, maybe. I mean, Dan, they may have one starting job open, maybe one and a half starting jobs open. That's a really good position to be in. And boy, if every off season's like this one, going forward, it's just going to be a whole different world for Bears fans.
- [06:00]
Dan Bernstein
Right? And see, I've lived that life, too. And, you know, I'm trying to remind everybody of all that matters now and all that really ever matters is Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson, that even if they're drafting for defense, even if the idea is make sure the defense isn't a reason why they lose, and just get it to that point of competence, get the ball back to Caleb Williams, get the ball to him in advantageous field position situations. Now, last year, they did it all by creating turnovers. I don't necessarily think they could replicate that, but just because they draft defense does not change the marching orders of this, this era of, of Bears football is if Caleb Williams is great and Ben Johnson gets the most out of that talent, we're all going to be happy.
- [06:53]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. And, you know, you can look at what they did this offseason where, you know, they trade DJ Moore, they let Tremaine Edmonds go, they walk away from Nishan Wright, they walk away from Kevin Byard. On paper, they are not better than they were at the end of last season. But the bet is that Caleb Williams gets better, and if Caleb Williams gets better, none of that other stuff matters. It really doesn't. And that's, that's what's so compelling. The other thing is the NFL is about winning football games. And there was a period for a long time when the Bears were so bad that we made it about more than that we made it about or everything, but that we made it about, hey, we got to find this long term quarterback. Hey, we better nail this draft, you know? You know, hey, we got to go find guys in free agency that are going to turn this thing around. That's not how good teams operate. And how, how good teams work is, you know, it's about winning football games. And the Bears are in a position now where we can talk about winning football games and everything else is. Everything else is beside the point. It's a delightful time.
- [07:56]
Dan Bernstein
Yes.
- [07:56]
Matt Abeticola
Be a Bears fan and, you know, if that means that your off season is a little more boring than you're used to it being fantastic, that's why
- [08:04]
Dan Bernstein
it's called an off season.
- [08:07]
Matt Abeticola
That is great news. I mean, there were years, you know, there were years when I covered this team where it's October and you're talking about, oh my God, where are they going to pick in the draft? You know, do you think there's, you know, somebody who can play receiver or somebody who can play quarterback available there now? God willing, we don't have to have those conversations for a long time going.
- [08:28]
Dan Bernstein
I hope you're absolutely right. And to go with your analogy of saying the draft pick is usually the shiny new toy when your team is good, that that present rather than being like a battery powered Millennium Falcon with all of the interchangeable characters and the, and the smugglers compartments that open and retractable landing gear, it's underpants, it's socks. It's stuff that you're not excited about it, but you're sure happy you have it and you kind of take it for granted. But you gotta have those things when, when you're up fully functional.
- [09:09]
Matt Abeticola
Yes. And it, and it's because you already have the good toy. It's because you play with a good toy every day. You don't need it. You don't need another toy. You need, you know, you need, you need stuff that you can be comfortable in while you're, you know, riding the bike that you got for Christmas three years ago that still works great. And that's the best bike on the block. I mean, that's where they are now, where they, where they hope to be. And boy, it's just, I, I, you know, you know what? I know it and Bears fans know it. But so what a difference two years makes in, in terms of how we treat what happens on Sundays and how we treat what's going to happen on draft week. It's just a whole different vibe.
- [09:47]
Dan Bernstein
This is not a good draft.
- [09:49]
Matt Abeticola
Nope.
- [09:50]
Dan Bernstein
Just isn't. Next year's is supposed to be better and obviously it depends on underclassmen jumping, but we get by. Most draft cognizanti agree that this is kind of a down year. And that it tells me then my first instinct is add a bunch of picks. Get more spins at the wheel. Get into that. You know, maybe if you got to go end of second, third round, there could be all kinds of opportunities there to pick and choose people who are just good fits for you and maybe add some picks in next year's draft. And I know that doesn't excite people because our attention spans are short and we want things and we want new, shiny things, but maybe it's better to get them next year.
- [10:37]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, it could be. You know, they're walking this line where, you know it's a bad draft, but everybody knows it's a bad draft. Draft. It's, you know, I don't know how many teams are going to be willing to trade something great next year for something good this year. But they're also in a position at 25 where the people you talk to who know a lot more about this than I do say, don't go anywhere at 25. Stay there. Take the best outside linebacker or the best edge rusher, outside linebacker, defensive end, whatever they played in college, take the best edge and be happy. And I would be fine with that. If Ryan P.S. wants to goof around on day two, get future stuff to move through that, he's really good at that. That's, you know, that is what he does the best on draft day is make trades in rounds two and three and get future stuff. Do that. That's great. But if it were me in round one, I would sit there and say, Zion Young, Keldrick Falk, Messador, you know, Cash's how TJ Parker, whatever flavor I like best of those guys is probably going to be available. Go get them. Be happy about it. You know, if he plays behind Austin Booker at the start of the year, fine. You know, you're going to need three or four edge rushers anyway and that, you know, they were historically bad at that. Last year, I think pass rush win rate, they were second worst in football behind the Bengals, who had maybe the worst defense in whatever. Maybe. And then I think Profitball focuses top 60 edge rushers in terms of pass rush grades. They had Montez sweat and nobody else. So you got to fix that. You did nothing to fix it. I think in the first round, the task is fairly simple. Just go get a good edge rusher.
- [12:16]
Dan Bernstein
Does pro football focus exist anymore? No, I'm not kidding. There was a really good article, I think Drew McGarry wrote for Defector talking about the disaster that PFF has been with a Private equity purchase that has basically stripped it of all its talent. All the smart people are gone and they're just sort of mining it for data that could end up being half of a gambling site. Is there really a PFF anymore?
- [12:48]
Matt Abeticola
There's a PFF with the grading system. It's something that I try not to rely on, but if you've got, you know, if you want to sit there and go, I, I think it's still got a place for guys like me who are looking for statistics that probably confirm what your hunch is. Yeah, I, you know, I know that they laid off a lot of people
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Dan Bernstein
and boy, a lot of people walked away that apparently that there was a decision made, I guess by Chris Collinsworth, who had been doing a pretty good job running it, but he chose somebody in their offices who everybody hates. And I guess a lot of people just didn't want to work there anymore. And the, and the new bosses that came in and took it over and bought that brand are, are doing what private equity does, just kind of selling off assets, driving smart people away, hollowing it all out and then trying to, to cash in on whatever's left of it before they dump it.
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Matt Abeticola
Right. And yeah, and they're doing what everybody does now is pivoting to gambling. That's. That seems like the most common thing in our business here.
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Dan Bernstein
Yeah, indeed it is. Now, did you hear Jeff King and what was your sort of review of his first public appearance, his first words officially as Bears assistant gm?
- [14:08]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I was at Jeff King. Jeff King did a spectacular job of saying nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. You know, it's a hard press conference to have. The league obviously mandates that, you know, the Bears decision makers, you know, do some sort of talking before the draft, but they never say anything. You know, Ryan P.S. gave a five minute statement and then literally handed it over to Jeff King. In years past, they did that with Ian Cunningham. And you know, we tried to get at Jeff with a lot of different, in a lot of different ways and got very little. You know, how, how many guys won't be there when you draft a 25. He wouldn't say how many first round picks do you. Or how many grades. How many guys do you have first round pick grades on? Wouldn't go there. Hey, you think they're gonna be a lot of trades? Wouldn't go there. He was friendly and charming and, you know, seemed pretty comfortable behind it as. But the job he had on Tuesday was don't tip anything. And he didn't tip anything.
- [15:05]
Dan Bernstein
And that's why my I always ask people who do what you do around this time of year and having done it, I remember where I would. I would turn up that BS filter and know that even, even a text you get that says hey on background or hey off the record. A lot of what's out there is designed to manipulate reporters and media into being part of the misinformation and disinformation generating complex. What are your individual rules, you know, as a veteran reporter of being like, hey, I know I'm getting worked over here or I know that this person wants me to put this name out there or they're digging to find out what I'm hearing from other teams.
- [15:53]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, it's. I'll tell you this. I wrote 700 words yesterday about how I believe the Bears need to do for their defense in this draft what they did for their offense last year. And, and, and I'm not saying go get a first round pick who's a superstar. I'm saying address almost every position group on defense, which is what they did last year on offense. You know, we could talk about how great Colson Loveland was, but you know what? They had a running back. It was top 30 in the league in rushing yards. They added a receiver who enabled them to trade DJ Moore. They added a guard and a tackle who were both pretty good when they were forced into action. They need the defensive version of that this year and that's, you know, you got to check a box at defensive end, defensive tackle, safety, maybe corner and maybe linebacker. So I wrote that Jeff King talked us for. I don't, you know, I think the question answer portion was 13 minutes, maybe 5 minutes before that was opening statement. I didn't quote Jeff King once in my story. Didn't do it. No reason to. Didn't say anything that that added anything. I've substantial do what I was writing. I asked him directly, hey, what was the impact of your offense last year and do you think he could do that on the defensive side this year? Didn't give a very good answer. Didn't quote him. I mean that's. I'm more careful this time of year because you know, for the reasons you just said, which is everybody's trying to BS somebody, you know, and it's lying season. I go back to one of my favorite Ryan Pace stories was we are at the combine the year that they draft Mitch. So two months before they draft Mitch.
- [17:35]
Dan Bernstein
So they've already decided to draft him
- [17:38]
Matt Abeticola
and he is talking about how the quarterback that they bring in or if they draft a college quarterback that it needs to be somebody who is absolutely program changing. Somebody who you felt the weight of their greatness on the trajectory of their college. Go, oh, all right.
- [17:59]
Dan Bernstein
Wow.
- [18:00]
Matt Abeticola
But you know, desean Watson pre. All the other stuff, Deshaun Watson was available and Deshaun Watson is one of the great college quarterbacks that has ever lived, full stop. And we all went well, okay, must be Deshaun Watson. And then they draft me guy who played 12 games or started 12 games. Draft A guy who, you know, didn't win the starting job until what, his third year on campus. So that is a great reminder that even two months out, these guys are trying to lie to you and we all know the game. I don't think anybody takes it personally at this point, but you know, if we judge them by their actions, not their words, we have to wait until, till Thursday to find out what they're really thinking.
- [18:42]
Dan Bernstein
I find one thing that I may have to do if we do think indeed that this is a defensive heavy draft, is sort of re and re teach how Dennis Allen looks at players and what he esteems in players generally. And it's hard to do because I think most good coaches and coordinators will say I can make anything work. It might not be my prototype, but I can make anything work. But when we talk prototypes, from what I understand about Dennis Allen, and this is what I'm asking you to kind of flesh this out, I'll start.
- [19:17]
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
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Dan Bernstein
What, what I know is linemen need to be long, tall and athletic would have some sense Even though it's a 40 front, have some potential multi positionality. And rather than being lined up as just one gap players or just two gap players, Allen wants them to win their matchup physically defeat that person in front of you. There is also some versatility to defensive backs that can play man or zone and have the intelligence and quickness to be in one position before the snap and then be able to quickly get into the real position where they were meant to be the whole time at or after the snap. What am I missing there in that generalized description of Dennis Allen's wants and needs?
- [20:09]
Matt Abeticola
First of all, that's a pretty pretty accurate description of what he needs, especially defensive end. He, you know, if you look at those Saints teams, they're not getting these little quit guys who fly in. You know, they are drafting 6 foot 5, 6 foot 6 defensive ends who can play the run and can also rush the passer almost in that order. That's what he wants on the, on the defensive line. He wants versatility not only in scheme or in, in skill in the defensive backfield, but in position. When he got here last year, he was talking about giving Kyler Gordon reps at safety because you know, he goes, you know they're going to be there, going to be times in the game when you know, we want to bring in another corner and Kyler can go play safety. And that never happened because Kyler was hurt most of the season. And a lot of these luxury sort of ideas they had went out the window when Jalen Johnson got hurt in Las Vegas a couple weeks before the start of training camp. And then when Kyler Gordon really couldn't stay on the field. That's I think when he has his kind of player and when they're healthy, I think that's the idea. The idea is that your DBs are five guys who can kind of move all over depending on, on what you want. And your defensive ends are like I said, big Mahler type guys, not guys who are going to fly around the end.
- [21:29]
Dan Bernstein
Last question. Appreciate your time as always, Patrick. We, you mentioned run on safeties in a first round and I'm thinking, you know, that that's really not my style of first round drafting safeties at all there because when we look at the sort of the continuum of where players come from, I know they're a left tackle has got to be a first round pick. Your quarterback's usually a first round pick. You can find and develop safeties from elsewhere without expending for. My question of drafting a college safety is if he's so good, why is he playing safety college?
- [22:05]
Matt Abeticola
That's a great point.
- [22:06]
Dan Bernstein
That, that, that's what if, if somebody has is that impactful. If he's that good, he shouldn't be playing that position because he's a, the best players on the team just don't play there. It's, it's like, look, it's like drafting a first baseman in baseball when that's a place you, you put a guy you don't have a spot for.
- [22:23]
Matt Abeticola
I was not to name check another football research site, but I was on Stat Head, the pro football reference site yesterday playing around with first team all pros or first team all pro safeties in the last 10 years and 26 years and how many of them were first round picks versus not? And I think what I stumbled upon was in the last 10 years, I think about a third of the all pros have been drafted in either rounds 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or not at all. That seems like pretty good evidence that you can find a good safety almost anywhere. When we talk about the run on safeties, Caleb Downs, you know, I agree with everything you said about safety. I think Caleb Downs probably the best player in this draft, full stop.
- [23:05]
Dan Bernstein
Better than Arvel Reese.
- [23:06]
Matt Abeticola
I do. You know, beyond that though, you know you have two other guys who are first round picks with, with, with the Oregon Kid, Dylan Dynam or Thienaman, I believe, and Emmanuel McNeil Warden from Toledo. I wouldn't draft a safety at 25. I would draft the safety with my fourth round pick. And you know, Jason Leisure, my colleague, did a wrote a pretty convincing argument for that very thing the other day, which is you can't throw money at Kobe Bryant and then use the first round pick on another safety. Like that's not good. Teams don't double down at that position. That's probably the last position you need to double down at. So because of that, I think if it were me running the draft, I wouldn't take a safety either in the first round. But there are three who are going to go in the first round to somebody.
- [23:53]
Dan Bernstein
Where are you going to be tomorrow?
- [23:54]
Matt Abeticola
House Hall.
- [23:57]
Dan Bernstein
What's their plan? What's, what's the setup tomorrow night?
- [24:00]
Matt Abeticola
Well, usually we just kind of hang out in the media room and usually they pick early and we've got a lot of work to do. There have been years where we've gone to the draft because the Bears are picking so high that you know that the guy they pick is going to be in the green room this year. We just couldn't justify that because the odds of what they're 12 or 14 guys in the green room, the odds of one of those going to the Bears, probably not very good. So we're gonna go to Halas. As a newspaper guy with a newspaper deadline, I am going to be really curious to see what time they make that pick. Last year number 25 was right about 9, 39, 40, but this year it is 2 minutes less between picks.
- [24:37]
Dan Bernstein
Oh, that adds up.
- [24:38]
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, it's now only eight minutes instead of 10. So hopefully that speeds everything up because we got a, you know, the earlier they pick, the more time I have to try to put something cogent down that can hit everybody's doorsteps.
- [24:52]
Dan Bernstein
The next morning we will be reading. As always, Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun Times. Thanks so much for being a part of forward progress today.
- [25:00]
Matt Abeticola
Hey, anytime.
- [25:01]
Dan Bernstein
That is Patrick Finley. And let me give you the latest on what we are hearing regarding the stadium situation because there's a lot of messy stuff that's coming out of Springfield today. So far this morning, I've had a couple text conversations with the governor's office just trying to find out what's happening here. As the gears of the General assembly are grinding and there are as described yesterday, we're at the stage now where the vote counting is leading to people saying, oh, you need my vote. Well, guess what, I have some demands here for you to get my vote. And this is, this is legislation. This is how it all works. It's messy. But as according to the capital facts that provide some of this information each day, probably the best coverage that we're getting right now that the the Bears, we'll call it the Bears bill even though it's a mega projects bill that affects more than the Bears. And we do have some difference between what is going on in the state House and what's going on in the Senate. Senate, the House has done a rewrite of the bill that has changed it and changed the Bears situation in a couple of ways where they now Cam Buckner wants the pilot dollars, the payment in lieu of taxes, split between the local property taxes. So we're talking the schools and the state's property tax relief fund. That kind of goes to everyone. And I think the what is clear is that the Arlington Heights school districts are okay as long as they can get the total amount of money that they wanted coming from the Bears. So that may be a direct call of the Bears bluff on this, that it might be a test of the Bears. And what everybody's betting on is the Bears don't really want to go to Indiana, which of course they don't. Everybody wants them to stay in Illinois. They desperately want to stay in Illinois. But the question is would they cut a larger check to those school districts if in fact their bluff gets called about wanting to stay? Are they going to go upwards of the 200 million that they've promised? Are they going to have star bonds, the sales tax and revenue bonds for some of the infrastructure? And it's happening so fast that I'm told that the governor's office really hasn't been able to review the entire proposal right now that they're just they were just seeing the language last night that is still being reviewed. And the Democrats in the Senate want to see everything. There have been caucuses already today. Wednesday, they're expected to go on into the afternoon with more hearings in caucuses. That could mean a vote later Wednesday. It could mean a vote Thursday, or it could mean that they end up pushing this into a little bit later session and we get on into maybe which was understood that it could happen that the Bears would that's why they said what they said about late spring, early summer because sometimes you just don't have time on the calendar to do that. And we also don't know yet how hard the governor's office is going to intervene if they are trying to hurry that up. Sort of like what happened with the mass transit reform bill down in Springfield as well. Again, this is coming from Cap Facts and Cam Buckner. Yesterday the representative who's been quarterbacking this mentioned that the, the House Democrats are figuring out they're, they're tightening up some things. They said there was no huge pushback, that Buckner did a solid job of explaining the new proposal and alleviating concerns because there was some worry about data centers receiving these tax breaks. They are luckily so far cutting out what data centers could benefit from in these, in these mega project bills. But I know that's a lot of details and it's a lot to kind of chew on. But that remains the latest that is happening for whatever that is worth to you. I have been in touch with sources downstate to try to keep apprised of everything that's going on and what the Speaker Welch is doing about his personal ideas about wait, there's got to be a one hour posting before there's a hearing. There's got to be 60 votes minimum before he's even going to call a vote. And we're with a lot of these self imposed rules. It's creating some thresholds. There are, there are these artificial deadlines that are continuing to move things. It is all grinding along. And as we get these little breadcrumbs and dribs and drabs, I will collect them and I'll let you know more when we can. But I would say it does seem like there's a tone of reserved optimism based on the understanding that this is what the end game looks and feels like. And there could be potential hiccups as, as it all goes along. But that's the latest and we thank Patrick Finley for joining us. We thank you for being a part of Forward Progress today. And we cover all things bears and NFL here on 312 sports. Forward Progress is stopped.
- [30:25]
Matt Abeticola
Forward Progress, a Chicago Bears podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matt Abeticola on Three One Two Sports.
- [30:36]
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