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Dan Bernstein
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Matt Abeticola
IQ Bar go to eatiqbar.com and enter code BAR20 to get 20% off all IQ Bar products plus free shipping. Again, go to eatiqbar.comand enter code BAR20. I mean, if you're a Bears fan, you're thinking Forward progress. Come on. Forward Progress Chicago Bears Podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matt Abeticola on 312 Sports.
Dan Bernstein
You want forward progress? We give it to you here. We have awarded you Forward progress on 312 sports and I think we're starting to get a sense that all of these moves that the Bears have made in this in free agency are now pretty much done. We're kind of near the end of it. And if I'm as good as I think I am at reading between the lines, the this is it for left tackle, it sounds like that these are going to be the dudes who are going to compete. When all is said and done. My guess is maybe there is a mid or late round draft pick in there. I'm certainly allowing for that possibility, but until we get to the point of somebody unexpected being available after cut downs or some something happening on the injury front. The way Brad Biggs puts it in the piece that he wrote over the weekend is enough to convince me that this is probably about it because he said barring something unexpected, this is the most significant job battle when training camp opens and he mentions the fact that Ozzie Tropillo isn't going to be there and that Theo Benedict and Karen Amogaje are in the mix because he says they have two experienced players to evaluate, Braxton Jones, who signed his one year Friday, and Jedrick Wills Jr. The first round pick of the Browns in 2020. He said it is unlikely the Bears will look at a left tackle with their first round draft pick next month, chances are the team will be seeking help for the defense. Maybe it's not ideal. The Bears were not in position to make a splash move at left tackle and were seeking a bridge player. Not somebody who plays bridge, somebody who can be a BA Bridge in the way that they play football to handle the role until Tropillo can be evaluated further to see if he's a legitimate long term option on that side. So I guess these are the guys. It's going to be Braxton Jones or Jedrick Wills Jr. As the Bears starting left tackle next year.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I think, you know, as you said there, if something happens, you know, during the course of the off season, after the draft, if you know there's some kind of injury or some guy gets released or if There is at 25, if the Bears stay at that, that pick for the first round, if the best guy on their board happens to be a tackle at that point, I think they would take him because Ryan Polls has said, you know, we'll take the best guy that's available. If they have that as a left tackle and he's there at 25, that's the way the board shakes out. I think they would take someone maybe later in the, in the, in the round, maybe day three there's a late round project they would take. But even in that case, a late round project isn't going to be competing for the starting job to, you know, have in week one. So yeah, it comes down to Wills who didn't play at all last year and Braxton Jones who apparently wasn't healthy enough to lift and be good enough to play last year as well. Those are the two guys competing for your starting job.
Dan Bernstein
Well, that's what I want to find out because it seems like there is some after the fact discussion of Braxton Jones that keeps including this idea of yeah, he was bad and he was benched, but the reason why he was bad and benched is because he was still hurt and couldn't work out. Like we weren't hearing this then.
Matt Abeticola
We didn't hear it at all. Dan. That was never ever once said.
Dan Bernstein
Okay. It was never said.
Matt Abeticola
Never.
Dan Bernstein
He just got bench in the Raiders game.
Matt Abeticola
It was never said.
Dan Bernstein
But why now is I. Well, of course we had to bench him because he couldn't work out and he wasn't strong enough. I don't, I don't like it. I don't like the fact.
Matt Abeticola
Why now? It's because he's in the mix for a starting job when he wasn't good enough to have it last year over a rookie and a guy from Canada.
Dan Bernstein
And if so, if that's true, if that is true and this guy who had been at the very least a slightly above replacement level starter perhaps for enough time to say that he's a legitimate NFL player Despite being a 5th round pick out of Southern Utah, that no other NFL team was going to understand that to be the case and offer him more. No other NFL team was saying, well, you know, we can just get him on our weight program and all of a sudden his anchor is going to be better and he won't be bull rushed and he's got already, you know, good hands and decent instincts, the whole thing. But it's just the Bears who know that.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I mean the whole thing sounds, it sounds suspicious. It sounds interesting that we didn't hear that at all last year. I would have preferred to hear it then because it would have made a little more sense why the guy wasn't able to compete and beat out a rookie and a guy from Canada. You know, that would have made me feel better about Braxton Jones moving forward, but that wasn't the case. And I'm also just going to, I'm going to, I'm going to file this one away is I'm going to trust the coaches. I have no other choice to do that. Like I said, if there's a guy there at 25 that drops down on their board and is the best guy available on their board at 25, I think they'll take him because Ryan Polls has said that. Or a late round guy which wouldn't compete for day one week one starter. These are the two guys and I have to trust that they're going to get, you know, that, that Wills will be ready or Jones will be ready to play and play at a level that's not going to affect the offense and get Caleb Williams hurt.
Dan Bernstein
No, it sounds like a really serious surgical readjustment on Jedrick Wills that it wasn't just waiting for recovery. They did an osteotomy on him and that is a, that's like cutting away a chunk of bone to realign everything there. And sometimes that it sounds to me like a, like a last resort. But if they think he can still compete and if this was done with a forethought and they say, look, if we do this, you can get back to fulfilling some of your promise, I hope that's what it was. They only committed 1.215 million, no signing bonus for Wills and it includes a Waiver for if he can't play because of his knee.
Matt Abeticola
Right. So there is.
Dan Bernstein
This is a flyer of a flyer
Matt Abeticola
of a flyer, the biggest of the flyers you can possibly have, which also doesn't make me feel very confident in this competition as well. You have a guy that wasn't good enough to play, and then after the season's over, oh, he wasn't healthy enough to work out and get his legs right, competing against a guy who we could just wave at any moment and made really very little commitment to him.
Dan Bernstein
And his quote is, my knee is healthy. It took a little bit longer than just a regular injury, but doing better now.
Matt Abeticola
Okay, well, we'll see. We'll see how it goes.
Dan Bernstein
All right. I mean, there. There. That is a. That is close. Close to a zero commitment as you're going to get. Yeah, it's like, all right, well, we'll give him a chance. We'll pay him the minimum. And if we have to cut him for the reason we think we're going to have to cut him, we don't owe him any extra. We're not on the hook for anything. Because everything is fully disclosed at this point.
Matt Abeticola
I'm going to do a quick reminder here and then mark it down. I said, going in the off season, my number one priority was left tackle, and that I think that they were just kind of being very nonchalant with this position. And then Drew Dahlman retires, so that shifted for me, getting your center was number one. Getting a left tackle for me is still number two. I don't. I don't like how the situation has played out. I don't like where it's headed. But if this is what they're going to go and this is the route they're going to take, and these are the guys they're going to have at this position. You know, again, there's a lot can still happen through the draft or as guys get cut and guys become available. We're still 24 weeks away or whatever from. From week one. Wait and see if anything else develops. But if this is it, just. I want it. Want it to be known. This was my area of concern. Left tackle was my main concern going into this off season.
Dan Bernstein
You own it. You got it. This is. This is your. And I can't disagree, but maybe there's. There's gotta be a reason why they're. They don't seem to be sharing your level of alarm.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, well, a. A, they're smarter than I am. B, they know more than I do. C, they're in the middle of it. So yeah, again, that's why I'm just gonna file it away as.
Dan Bernstein
Or maybe they agree with you, but they're just not showing us yet that they do.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, maybe. I guess that's a possibility. But again, I'm just gonna put all my trust in what they're gonna do and we'll see how it plays out and hopefully it doesn't fuck over the season, or at least the start of
Dan Bernstein
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Dan Bernstein
Well, it does look like they're going to need a new primary kickoff returner because Devin Duvernay has signed with the Arizona Cardinals.
Matt Abeticola
Correct.
Dan Bernstein
So that's fine. I know his overall numbers came out just great. There's only really a couple of games that he affected with big time returns at times where it mattered. And I don't think that that'll be all that difficult to improve on right now in a perfect world if I didn't have to expose him to injury now that he's become much more meaningful in their offense. And Luther Burden is probably their best kick returner right now. And most, most dangerous Kick returner on the roster at the moment is Luther Burden, but you don't want to expose him. So it's going to be Khalif Raymond, despite Khalif Raymond being more of a punt return specialist than kick.
Matt Abeticola
Okay, no, I'm. I'm fine with that. Yeah, that sounds good. I just. I don't want him to be the third wide receiver on the depth chart. And the kick returner and punt. Returner. No, that's interesting. That.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, they need another wide eye. We haven't heard much about the plans for Jade A. Walker because he's. All we saw was him perform. When asked last year, I do not know where they think he fits in. Whether he can play multiple positions or not.
Matt Abeticola
That's something we'll see as the off season develops here, too. And then one other departure. I can't remember if we mentioned this Friday or when this even happened, if it was over the weekend, but. Cj, GJ CJ Gardner Johnson signs with the Buffalo Bills.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I think we did. I want to see.
Matt Abeticola
I can't remember if we did or not. Okay.
Dan Bernstein
But you know what? That was. Found money. And he.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, that worked out great.
Dan Bernstein
He was there. They needed him. He contributed. He was a good teammate, a good locker room guy. There were worries. Yeah. And we didn't get any of the negatives that other teams have had with him. And he put his career back together after, you know, when you are that young and that out of a job at the season after it's already started, that. I think he owes Dennis Allen a nice thank you note at the very least after this for rejuvenating his career and giving him that opportunity. He lived up to his end of the bargain. Ultimately, he just wasn't fast enough because of what they want to do and the way they want to move guys around back there. They.
Matt Abeticola
When.
Dan Bernstein
When you have matchups that, you know, you hope the other team doesn't recognize because they're so exploitable, and the good team's just gonna be like, oh, oh, okay, I see this. I know who's matched up against who. Just buy me a little bit of extra time and you're gonna come open. That was happening too much. And it wasn't just cj, gj it was also Nishan Wright, despite all the interceptions. And the Bears know it. And they've got to get stickier and faster back there.
Matt Abeticola
All right, one. One thought I have and something I've heard over the weekend, and it goes back to our Bear Stadium talk, and I don't Want to dive deep into it. There's nothing new to, to. To talk about, but I was flipping through the radio stations over the weekend, driving around, and I heard a news report. It might have been bbm. I can't remember where. Where I heard it from, but it was reporting that. That the Bears and Arlington Heights need to get something in place before the end of the month, even though we'd heard that last month as well, too. So my, my. My thought on it is this. I am completely done and over with this Bear stadium talk. Like I, I really am. Until they're saying that we're moving here and it's a done deal, or we're doing this, it's a done deal. I, I'm tired of it. I don't want to hear any more about it. With Kevin Warren and the Bears. I'm really over it. I'm really tired of it. If another franchise is building a stadium somewhere, it's not dragged out like this. It's not gone in such a clusterfuck as, as the Bears have really put this whole thing out there. It really. It's awful. And if another team is building a stadium, they're going to buy land, they're going to get the stadium deal done, and they're going to build a stadium. The Bears and this. Dragging out this process and Iowa and Indiana and Arlington Heights and now let's look downtown. We can't leave the city. I'm done with it. And the way they fucked this up is really, really terrible. It's really unfortunate the way it's gone. Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
They brought in a guy to do one thing and it hasn't been done. And there's been all sorts of promises made that have not been kept. There were numbers that are thrown out. I mean, do you remember the whole cranes in the sky thing?
Matt Abeticola
Yes.
Dan Bernstein
That whole thing.
Matt Abeticola
The whole thing is weird. There's weird things to it. There's dumb things to it.
Dan Bernstein
Well, there was a comment last week that Adam Schefter made that caused a brief kerfuffle. I know, that we didn't really address in this space either, where he said something about how the Bears have no cash, the Bears are out of money, and people didn't quite understand what he meant. And then he has since. Right. He since amended his statement. But there is some. This is based on everything I know about the operations of the Bears. They've got plenty of money. They have more than plenty of money. And when it comes to actual cash on hand to pay out their bonuses and all that that they let Kevin. Do you know how much money Kevin Warren has spent of beefing up the new. The number of vice presidents and sub vice presidents and the number of people that he's hired and the amount of money just, just in the stadium thing, the lobbyist money. Do you know the thousands and thousands of dollars they've been spending on lobbyists? And how about these billboards that we see, like the one on the Kennedy saying keep the Bears in Illinois and all. That's all Bears money. It's not an issue. We also understand that the McCaskeys don't have other businesses. We talked about this all the time. They're not some of the. They're not Stan Kroenke. They aren't some of these massively wealthy ownerships. They're not Arthur Blank where they haven't cultivated outside businesses. They have the football team and the franchise value that I know is not cash and it's certainly not liquid, but they're not hurting for money. The Chicago Bears organization can pay out its signing bonuses. They can handle all of their contracts. And if they're just talking about cap space, then fine. If you want to. Also, if you want to talk about the billions and billions that might be lying around for a stadium, that's a different discussion. But I think that. But the word broke was invoked and there was, there was all, there were all kinds of. There was like a bizarre short term panic that really isn't worth worrying about.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I didn't, I didn't take that. Other than cap space. I don't know why people are confused.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I just.
Matt Abeticola
They were talking about free agents and about, you know, Max Crosby and he said they were broken out. Yeah, they're out of money. I think they have like 4 million, 4.3 left in cap space, if that's even accurate now. But yeah, I didn't think anything beyond they didn't have money for signing any more free agents this year.
Dan Bernstein
And in an emergency, you can go create more cap space. That's not a secret.
Matt Abeticola
Right.
Dan Bernstein
You can go to the various individual banks of the players that you.
Matt Abeticola
Not even an emergency. If they desire to.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, if they want, you can carve out more space. And it does change, which you'd have to make up later. But if they felt it was in there, if there was some make or break out, we gotta have this guy. They could make a movement. Go get them.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, yeah. So I think for me, the stadium issue is the next thing I want to hear is that a deal's in place. And we're going to start building, we're going to start getting shovels in the ground on this date. That's the next thing I want to hear. I don't want to hear about any more emergency meetings or we're done talking to this guy or I'm done with it. I just want to hear a deal's in place. Shovels in the ground in June, shovels in the ground in July, shovels in the ground next March. I, that's the next thing I want to hear. I don't want to hear any more of the back and forth bullshit. I'm just, I'm. I'm tired of it.
Dan Bernstein
There are still issues that are going on regarding the, the deal that they're eventually going to end up cutting with Arlington Heights because I think Crane Chicago business was talking about the, the One Central mega project that having to do with Soldier Field for their multi use facility and the use of STAR and everything else. And I don't know what Brandon Johnson is doing just still trying to talk up Chicago in this whole thing. I don't really understand it. But I think everything's moving still. As I understand it. Everything is still moving, albeit slowly, in the direction that we all expect. And if your policy is call me when a shovel's in the ground in Arlington Heights, I think that's a pretty standard, healthy policy right now.
Matt Abeticola
Yep, that's where I'm at with it. One other area I want to get into. We talked a little bit last week about the Bears turnover differential. Of course it was the big talk of free agency and how can we let these guys go? They led the NFL in, in takeaways. Well, I wanted to look at the last I had here, the last 12 Super bowl winners. So the last 12 seasons, the 2025 season, all the way back to the 2014 season. Dan and I looked at the number of teams that were in the plus when it comes to takeaways. We talked about this a little bit. Yeah. And we thought so. Last year in 2025, there were 13 teams that were in the plus as far as takeaways seemed a little, little low. So I wanted to look at the other other seasons. So going back through 2024, there were 15 teams in the plus. 2023, there were 15 teams. There were three teams that were that broke even at zero. 20, 22 you had 14 teams with one at zero. 2021, 15 teams with three at zero. 2020 you had 16 teams with three at zero. 20, 19, 14, 2018 you had 18, 2017, there was 14. 2016, there were 16. 2015 there were 17. And 2014, there were 15. So kind of like in that lower mid teen number, it seems like pretty normal for a season. So then I went looks and the next thing I looked at is how many of those teams made the playoffs. So 2025, you had 13 teams in the plus, minus 10 of those made the playoffs. In 2024, there were 15 teams, 13 made the playoffs.
Dan Bernstein
It's a high correlation.
Matt Abeticola
In 2023, there were 15 teams in plus 18 teams altogether at zero or plus 10 of those made the playoffs. So I'd like some teams.
Dan Bernstein
I like to look at it oppositely. I like to say how many teams with a negative turnover differential could still make the playoffs?
Matt Abeticola
Okay, well, I'll tell you that in 2025, there were four that made the playoffs. In 2024, there was one. In 2023, there were four. In 2022, there was three. 2021, there was four. In 2020, there was three. 2019, there was one. 2018, there was two. 2017, there were seven who had a
Dan Bernstein
negative turnover differential and made the playoffs. How many super bowl champions have had a negative turnover differential?
Matt Abeticola
Hang on a second. 2016, there were two. 2015, there were five. 2014, there were five of the last 12 Super bowl winners. Dan, there were three teams that won the super bowl with a negative turnover differential.
Dan Bernstein
Okay, three of the last 12.
Matt Abeticola
Those three were the 2025 Seattle Seahawks, last year's champions. They had a negative three turnover differential. The 2023, 202024 Super bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Or a negative 11 turnover differential.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, because there's different conclusions to draw from different teams. One team, you might say, can totally outscore its turnovers.
Matt Abeticola
Hang on a second.
Dan Bernstein
And the other one would say they're, they're out defending their turnovers.
Matt Abeticola
The third team to win in the last 12 years with a negative turnover differential were the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs. So they did it in back to back years at negative three and negative 11. The Seahawks were negative three last year. Now you look at those teams. The 2022 Kansas City Chiefs finished with a negative three turnover differential. They led the league in scoring at 29.2 points. They were number one also. And look at that. And look at their defense. Their defense that year gave up 21.7 points, which was 16th in the league. But they were number one in scoring. Negative three turnover differential. Okay, the Kansas City Chiefs, in 2023, they were negative 11 in turnover differential. They scored 21.8 points a game, which was 15th in the league. So middle of the pack. But they gave up 17.3 points which was best for second in the league. So they were able to out, out defend their turnover differential.
Dan Bernstein
It sounds like one or the other.
Matt Abeticola
Then the Kansas City or the Seattle Seahawks Last year, negative three won the Super Bowl. They scored 28.4 points a game, which was best for third in the league. But they were number one last year in allowing 17.2 points per game.
Dan Bernstein
Usually turnover ratio, turnover differential has a very high correlation with winning individual games. I think it's, it's something like a, like hitting a three run homer in a baseball game or what we used to say about a quality start in a baseball game with a 70% correlation. If you, if you lead a game, if you.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I did see what the percentages are. But you, if you, if you win the turnover battle, you generally win the game.
Dan Bernstein
That's, that's really interesting that you can. But you have to be really special on one side of the ball or scoring or defending.
Matt Abeticola
Yes. Look at the 20152016 champions. That was the Denver Broncos. They finished at a plus two turn turnover differential. They were 22nd in the league in scoring, so one of the lowest super bowl champions.
Dan Bernstein
That was old bad Peyton Manning, yes,
Matt Abeticola
at 20.8 points per game, but they were fourth in defense and allowing 18.5 points per game. So that anomaly there is the 22 Kansas City Chiefs who were 16th in defense, but they were number one in scoring. So yeah, so you have to either be really good at scoring, really good at not allowing points, and you can overcome your turnover differential.
Dan Bernstein
So I guess it's going to take more of a sample under a Ben Johnson, Dennis Allen, Bears regime to know what the meaning of last year's big turnover number was. Because Caleb Williams takes care of the football.
Matt Abeticola
Right.
Dan Bernstein
But they also are sluggers. They, they look for big chunks, scoring plays. Explosives. Explosives. Explosives. And I don't think we have enough data yet, frankly, I really don't. We don't.
Matt Abeticola
But there, but there is one thing we can determine though, because I really, I looked into this because I wanted to see you. You saw Jaquan Brisker, Kevin, Kevin Byard, Nishan Wright, now cj, gj, go other places for a one year deal and not a whole lot of money. Kevin Byard making the most of any of those guys. And I thought how could they let those guys go away? Because when you score, when you get a plus 22 turnover, when you're plus 22 in your turnover differential. How can you let those guys leave?
Dan Bernstein
Well, especially because the turnovers were generated with a bad pass rush. You know, I would, I would add, it's more significant when you can say, well, hell yeah, they get a lot of turnovers because they've got the Denver Broncos edges and.
Matt Abeticola
Right.
Dan Bernstein
It's always, always in there freaking out the quarterback. He's hurrying, throws, he's throwing it into traffic. The Bears didn't have that and they still ended up with all those, those takeaways.
Matt Abeticola
So I thought, well, how could they let those guys walk? That's why I wanted to look into this. And clearly they feel that that's, you know, and we see it looking at the last 12 years, it just, it doesn't happen consistently for teams. So what I, what I did next was look at the teams that led in turnover differential the last 12 years. So the Bears were number one at plus 22. And of course, they lost at home in the divisional round to the Rams. 2024. It was the Bills at plus 24. And they lost in the AFC championship game to the Chiefs in 23. The Ravens and the Giants were plus 12. The 49ers were plus 13. Dallas and Indy were plus 14. Tennessee plus 11. New England was in 2019. Plus 21. And they lost the wild card round at home to Tennessee. Seattle was plus 15. Baltimore plus 17 in 2016. Casey and Oakland were plus 16. Carolina in 2015 was plus 20. And they lost the divisional round at Seattle. And then Green bay led the NFL at plus 14 in 2014. So no team that led the league the last 12 years and turnover differential won the Super Bowl.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I don't. That seems like an inverse lesson to learn, but.
Matt Abeticola
Well, I know I'm not saying don't, don't get turnovers, but I just wanted to see how that correlated to it to try to try to justify. You have a group of guys here that went elsewhere on one year deals were not a lot of money and you didn't keep any of them. How could that be possible? Because they saw what happens in football that they weren't going to duplicate that. Like the chances of the Bears leading the league and turnover differential next year is very slim. That's just what history says. That's just the last 12 years.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. So much of this is some sort of variation of the ship of Theseus parable of this idea of is it the same team if you change over all of the individual parts over time? You know, what are you looking at here? And this is we're going to use this word a lot, but I think that the amount of trust being shown in Dennis Allen is what we're seeing here. Right. I think they believe that a properly constructed Dennis Allen defense, that they're constantly going to him and saying, where are we at? How close are we to having your prototype at every position? How is it supposed to look? And from what I'm gathering, based on the body of work of these moves so far, after one year of Dennis Allen, after seeing sort of what he does and now looking at looks to me like he's, he's saying we're too slow, we're too slow on the back end, we're too slow and we're not interchangeable enough between corners, safeties, slot and, and safeties, linebackers and safeties. We need, we need to be more interchangeable and faster. And, and it's all about disguising. It's all about the pre snap stuff. It's all about showing different looks. The stuff I thought he did really well in that Rams game.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, that was the, the best game of the season.
Dan Bernstein
That, that ultimately gets undone by the other team recognizing a mismatch. And I think his point, you know what it reminds me of? It reminds me of a basketball team that wants to switch every ball screen. And you can't do that when you have a lot of different sizes and different sets of athleticism. You know, you got guys who are slower and quicker when you need to be matchup oriented. Specifically the teams that can switch every ball screen, everybody on the defense is 6, 7 or 6, 8 and similar body types and similar athleticism. Like that's the goal. And I, and I think is, that's kind of the template that I'm using based on what Alan seems to want to do is go ahead and pick a matchup. We're going to, we are going to dictate what our advantages are because you don't even know what defense we're in because you know any of these guys can be anywhere.
Matt Abeticola
Right? I think the two things going into this off season with the defense are speed and versatility. And I think we've talked about that a lot. And you know, it's interesting that you bring up the basketball point because a lot of teams do it. I watched a lot of high school basketball this weekend and then college, of course, and congrats to your Deerfield team.
Dan Bernstein
They just made it close.
Matt Abeticola
It was a lot, lot closer game than I expected. Man, that was, that's for sure.
Dan Bernstein
It was close. It was always Good to hear. To hear. My guy, Marshall Harris, doing. Boy, was he working hard, doing play by play.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, no, he did great. But in watching that, whenever there was a screen, they were. They just. They. The defensive team lost out. And always. There was always a disadvantage that the little guy was always on the big guy. And I saw that in college, too. And if you have that ability where you have those guys you talk about six' six, six' seven, six' eight, that are long and quick and you can make those rotations and it doesn't matter if I follow your guy and you follow my guy, that doesn't matter because we're still gonna defend you well. And I think. I love that analogy because that's what they're looking for. They're looking for versatility, and they're looking for speed out of this defense. So we'll see what they do through the draft. Now, the Bears can go from a plus 22 in 2025 to a plus three or a plus five in the 2026 season and allow seven to eight points less a game and be a much better defense. So the whole. The whole point is don't get.
Dan Bernstein
Or they can score 40 points a game and nothing. Score 40.
Matt Abeticola
It doesn't mean anything. Right. Or they could score the 31 to 34 points a game and then give up seven to 10 points less a game in their defense, and then that's where you see it. So don't. Don't get. Don't get all caught up in the turnover numbers. Don't get caught up in those. That's the point.
Dan Bernstein
No, I'm glad. I'm glad you felt motivated to go kind of digging around in the attic on some of this stuff. Because. Because. Because that. That is the question people have, like, jeez, this guy. This.
Matt Abeticola
Like, how could they do that? He has five, and he had seven interceptions. Don't. Don't get caught up or lost in the numbers themselves.
Dan Bernstein
I would also say the other lesson in there is a larger one, and that is last year's numbers don't matter as much as next year's numbers.
Matt Abeticola
Correct.
Dan Bernstein
Next year's numbers are what matter. And when they. And they look at Kobe Bryant, and with every day that goes by, the more you hear from NFL people. Yes, that's the signing.
Matt Abeticola
Kobe Bryant. Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
And that's the signing one and two.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. But what people are saying about Kobe Bryant is, you know, yeah, Seattle really wanted to keep him.
Matt Abeticola
You know, Dan, there's. There's one number that matters from last year, and it's 31. Bears were one of one of 31 teams that, that failed. Oh, that's. That's all that matters. That's it. And now we're on to 20, 26. How can you be that one team that wins the Super Bowl? That's it. Hey, of the last 12 winners. And I would have gone deeper, but I like using ESPN for their stats because they, they align them easier and it's easier to read and navigate. I would have. They only. They went back to 2014. Only. Of the last 12 Super bowl winners, how many teams won the Super Bowl?
Dan Bernstein
Off top of your head, of the 12. Of the last 12 super vendors, how many won the Super bowl?
Matt Abeticola
How many teams?
Dan Bernstein
12.
Matt Abeticola
No, 12 winners. How many teams?
Dan Bernstein
Oh, of the 12 Super bowl winners, how many of those teams won the Super Bowl? You're saying how many teams were there?
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. 12 winners, 12 Super Bowls. How many winners?
Dan Bernstein
Five teams.
Matt Abeticola
Seven. Seven teams. So you had Seattle, Philadelphia, KC, the Rams, Tampa, New England, Philly, Denver. Okay. Of those seven teams, seven quarterbacks as well too, because Brady was one, two, three times New England once. So four times is Brady. You have the Chiefs a couple times. Philadelphia had two different quarterbacks. Yeah. Then you got Lone Wolfs and the Rams. The Eagles. No, Eagles were twice. That was two quarterbacks. Sorry. Seattle and the Rams and Denver with old bad Peyton Manning who had a great, great defense.
Dan Bernstein
Well, and speaking of quarterbacks and the Chiefs, they made a move today.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
That I think is worth noting because we know that the jets added Geno Smith. So the jets traded Justin Fields to the Chiefs pending a physical.
Matt Abeticola
Yep. For a 2027 six round pick.
Dan Bernstein
And the jets will pay seven of the 10 million. This according to Rich Chemini of ESPN. The jets are going to pay Geno Smith 3.3 million and the Raiders are paying him 16.2. So Patrick Mahomes still rehabbing from the ACL. And it mean that Fields starts the season because he'll be. He'll now slot in instead of Gardner MUU as the primary backup to Mahomes. So this is a fascinating case to see. The power of the, you know, the restorative power. This, it's not Minnesota now. I was in the quarterback car wash yet, but Andy Reid with his hands on Justin Fields and having the ear of Justin Fields. What I want to see is can Andy Reid speed up? Fields is processing. Can he take a guy who is one of the most accurate college passers and reprogram him to be a much more accurate and properly timed pro quarterback? I don't know the answer, but the experiment will be interesting to watch.
Matt Abeticola
So Muu is with the Cardinals, correct? Yeah. Okay. As you said, he, he'd be, he would move up ahead of Minshu for the, for the Chiefs. So he's with the Cardinals.
Dan Bernstein
Minu left. Yes.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. So I thought, I thought Marcus Mariota was with the Chiefs.
Dan Bernstein
No, he's commanders, right?
Matt Abeticola
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right. Yeah, he's the commanders.
Dan Bernstein
That's right. That's right.
Matt Abeticola
That's right. So. Yeah. So Fields will, will be the backup and then starter for the season, it sounds like.
Dan Bernstein
And he was. Fields was terrible last year.
Matt Abeticola
He wasn't. Yeah, it was not terrible. I love Fields. I really want him to do.
Dan Bernstein
Oh. As a guy. Yeah. And they, and they pinned everything on him and the owner said a bunch of stupid stuff. So I'm glad he got out of there and maybe can settle into a more comfortable and supportive environment where he is. I mean, what environment isn't more comfortable and supportive than the Jets? But if, if Andy Reid, I just, I'd love to know what he said in the meetings. What? Andy Reid? After watching all the film and making that decision. Yeah, go, go get. See what that guy can do.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. So my, my first thought was that he's not going to be a regular starting quarterback, that they'd have other, other plans for him.
Dan Bernstein
Well, he's. The plan is to be the backup.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
But he's only 27.
Matt Abeticola
Yep. And yeah, we'll see how he can develop and grow. And then he's got Eric Biennami now as an offensive coordinator. See if that helps him out. Mooney went to the Giants as well. Did you see that? Darnell Mooney goes from Atlanta to the giants on a one year deal that could be worth up to 10 million. Wow.
Dan Bernstein
Well, God knows what the actual numbers are. I mean, they might be unreachable incentives. His agents will always put that out there. It could be up to me. Maybe he needs hundred catches to, to
Matt Abeticola
get all that or a thousand. And then final number I have here is. I don't know if you saw the final number that came in on the Jim Ursay auction. We talked about those items last week.
Dan Bernstein
The number I saw total was 84 million, but I think there was still time left.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah. So the total now is at $93 million. We on the Jim Ursay stuff
Dan Bernstein
and how much of that is going to charity?
Matt Abeticola
And they didn't say a certain percentage. It just said charities that Jim Ursay supported and that proceeds Some of the proceeds would go to charity. So who knows how much it is.
Dan Bernstein
Good, good, good. Because those items were just amazing. And seeing what people paid. Apparently it wasn't Derek Trucks that bought the Jerry Garcia guitar, but it was, it was some other music mogul who's friends with Derek Trucks who bought it and gave it to him. Because I was thinking if, I was thinking if Derek, if Derek Trucks has that kind of money lying around than, than playing guitar is a little more, more lucrative than I thought if he just had that to plop down on a single ax for himself. But yeah, there was, there was somebody else. He had an angel investor who came in and took care of that for him.
Matt Abeticola
Here's a gift for you.
Dan Bernstein
Take it and go play it nice.
Matt Abeticola
All right, well that'll do it for us here. Oh, you got. Sorry.
Dan Bernstein
No, just thinking like in the Oscars last night, did you hear the guy that won for the Sinners original score talking about the guitar and what it meant to him?
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, we were probably in baseball at that point.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, it was, it was. If you, if you get the chance. His speech is really interesting about, just about the, the instrument itself.
Matt Abeticola
And yeah, I haven't recorded. We recorded it and I, I plan on. We're going to go back and look at some things that we missed today or highlights that we've read about that want to go back and watch. So I'll take a listen to that because I, I do want to see Michael B. Jordan's acceptance as well.
Dan Bernstein
Did you see what happened after? There's a lot of footage getting out now immediately after the, the telecast ended. Like he and Leonardo DiCaprio shared a really interesting little interaction, like a long, long, long embrace. And DiCaprio was talking to him. It looked like, looked like two quarterbacks, you know, after a hard fought game. Very, very similar kind of vibe to it.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I didn't see that. I'd like to, would love to know what that conversation was.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, well, right. And then Michael B. Jordan went to In N Out Burger.
Matt Abeticola
Oh, he didn't want to celebrate.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, he did, he did the Paul Giamatti. But unlike Paul Giamatti, there was a huge crowd around Michael B. Jordan and he set the Oscar on the counter when he was ordering. That's another thing I don't really understand is the whole in and out burger.
Matt Abeticola
That's what I said, he didn't want to celebrate.
Dan Bernstein
It's fine, it's fine.
Matt Abeticola
Hey, I heard the Elton John party, which apparently is the party to go to. Yeah. Was Serving whole Bronzino.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, can I tell you about my dinner on Saturday night, by the way?
Matt Abeticola
Saturday night? Yeah. What'd you do Saturday night?
Dan Bernstein
So my friend's band was playing. Oh, yeah, my friend's band. Every year they're like the last band on Martyrs on the Saturday, St. Patrick's Day. So it's usually enough, they start late enough that a lot of the hardcore, the young drunks and the stupid drunks have cleared out and they play Village People.
Matt Abeticola
Right?
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, it's, it's. It's really good. Original kind of dad rock stuff.
Matt Abeticola
Who's the band? What's. What are they called?
Dan Bernstein
They're called the Hurting kind.
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
And they're, they're really talented and really fun. So they started late. I watched the first set and I kind of got tired and hungry. And the Wendy's near me was still open. I know Wendy's has had its issues and is. Is dealing with some things and apparently so is Burger King. Did you see they paid for like a three minute commercial talking about all the. Yeah, that was a thing. I couldn't believe it. It was literally like a two minute full.
Matt Abeticola
What issues is Wendy have? Wendy's having.
Dan Bernstein
They're closing a bunch of stores.
Matt Abeticola
Oh, financial issues. Yeah. And what was the Burger King commercial? I didn't.
Dan Bernstein
Burger King commercial was all about how they. They fucked up and they were. They. They got bad and they're sorry and they're changing and they listened and they're making it better again. They fired the king because nobody liked the king. Remember when the king flipped me off?
Matt Abeticola
No, I don't.
Dan Bernstein
Don't you remember? The king came over. He was with Drew Rosenhaus. And I told the King, I said, you creep me out. I don't like you. I don't trust you. You're creepy. And he gave me the finger with both hands. I like that.
Matt Abeticola
I like him for that.
Dan Bernstein
I like that move too.
Matt Abeticola
Wait, so Burger King came out and said that we're bad and we're gonna.
Dan Bernstein
They did. They basically said we, we. We. We let everything lapse. We lost our way. We didn't know what we were doing. Our food.
Matt Abeticola
Didn't you eat at Burger King at all?
Dan Bernstein
I haven't in forever. I used to love it as a kid.
Matt Abeticola
But okay, I might, I might eat there. I don't know. 1. Honestly, once a year, you know, once a while, get like a thing for a Whopper and I'm driving by and I'll grab one. But I thought it was still good. It was fine.
Dan Bernstein
I Don't know. But they, they, they basically said, we, we got bad. We know we got bad. So I, I walk on Wendy's. Open. I'm, you know, I'm gonna go into Wendy's.
Matt Abeticola
So what'd you get?
Dan Bernstein
I got two double baconators.
Matt Abeticola
Two, two double baconators. Okay.
Dan Bernstein
Two large fries
Matt Abeticola
and do two, two orders of fries.
Dan Bernstein
And they made it fresh.
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
And I will tell you something. A freshly made big. These were the half pound bacon. I had two half pound baconators because each has two quarter pound patties in it. That's a good burger.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I like Wendy's. I just, I don't need a ton,
Dan Bernstein
but it's good but like made like fresh, fresh like that. Like it was boom, boom, boom. They put me ahead of the drive thru people and they're like, oh yeah, got it coming right up. They're like, they presumed it was to go. Like all of the doordash drivers were milling around. I'm like, no, I actually want to sit and eat this here now. Like, oh, okay. It was great. And then for the walk home, Large vanilla frosty.
Matt Abeticola
Okay. So that, that was the dinner you wanted to talk about?
Dan Bernstein
Hadn't done that in a while. But I'm telling you that I hadn't had a baconator since like it first came out. That's, that's legit. Like they, they, they, they'll put it on there for you. That, that's a decent amount. And it was. You know what it costs? Do you know what a, a double baconator costs?
Matt Abeticola
Is it a lot or is it surprisingly low?
Dan Bernstein
You tell me. What do you think? It's a half pound of meat. It's like four slices of bacon. It's. I think it's white American cheese or something like that. There's some kind of like barbecue sauce and onion.
Matt Abeticola
I would guess. Just a sandwich. Just a sandwich would probably run eight to nine dollars.
Dan Bernstein
Eight bucks. You're right. Just the sandwich is eight bucks. Yes.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
And it was, it was worth it. It's not Red Hot Ranch. I mean, nothing is Red Hot Ranch. I just, it wasn't, it was walking distance.
Matt Abeticola
Well, yeah, that's, that's two, two different creatures.
Dan Bernstein
Red Hot Ranch. They're double cheeseburger, red hot and they're fried. Best value. And my single favorite burger in the entire city of Chicago. The double cheeseburger with everything at Red Hot Ranch is a perfect burger.
Matt Abeticola
All right. Noted.
Dan Bernstein
And I'm hungry again.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I am too. Thank you. It's great.
Dan Bernstein
I can't do it. Again. I can't do burgers again tonight.
Matt Abeticola
Sure you can. You do whatever you want.
Dan Bernstein
I'm a big boy.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
I'm entitled, Right. I can afford a cheeseburger, right?
Matt Abeticola
You can afford two and two large fries.
Dan Bernstein
Or I could make them. I have, I have this good rye bread that I got. Maybe I'll do patty melts. Oh, I've got Omaha Steaks Burgers for patty melts.
Matt Abeticola
Do it.
Dan Bernstein
That's it. Done.
Matt Abeticola
You know, you do take the Omaha steak, the patties, and then roll them up into a ball like a meatball, and then smash them down. Yeah, that's what you should do. Get a really, really hot skillet. You have, like, a cast iron. It's like a nice crust on it.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah.
Matt Abeticola
What's like, a cast iron?
Dan Bernstein
I don't know what it is, because I, I, this is the one.
Matt Abeticola
And you think it's like, cast iron?
Dan Bernstein
No, it's not aluminum.
Matt Abeticola
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
It's one that. It's a big heavy. It's so old. I got it from Beth, who. It was her mom's, and I think her mother's mother's, and I have it now.
Matt Abeticola
Okay. Oh, so that's, that's a real deal, I guess. 60 years old.
Dan Bernstein
It's heavy and it's warped, and I like it because I learned how to use the way it's warped when I'm making salt, like you could. There's, there's a place where I can move things a little bit away. There's a little indentation, like, if you want to use a tiny bit of oil. And you can do the garlic in the little dent in the middle, like I'm telling you. Like, I've, I've, I've adapted to this pan. Have you seen. I've grown accustomed to her face.
Matt Abeticola
I made this sauce the other day. Not, not for the intention of eating it, but I wanted to try to make the sauce. Have you seen this thing floating around online where it's.
Dan Bernstein
You're making TikTok sauces?
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, whatever it is. But it's. It's two cans of San Marzano tomatoes. And then you take an onion and you cut it in half, and you drop the onion in the sauce. And then with 3 tablespoons of butter, and I cut mine into, like, half tablespoon pats and put those in, and then you let it cook down and reduce about half. Take the onion out, and then you, like, did a stick blender to it. Just make it a sauce. I wanted to try and see. And people talk about how great it is.
Dan Bernstein
Do you get to squeeze the San Marzano tomatoes as you take them out of the can?
Matt Abeticola
No, no, no. You put the cans in. You put everything in. Put it in whole. Dump it in whole.
Dan Bernstein
That's my favorite thing. That's when I make shakshouka.
Matt Abeticola
Well, that's what you should do it.
Dan Bernstein
I make the Albert Bruneco shakshuka. And he describes it as you're crushing hearts of your enemies.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, it's like the Indiana Jones guy.
Dan Bernstein
Yes.
Matt Abeticola
So it was fine. I mean, if you're. If you're not. If you're not, like, if you don't make a lot of sauces and maybe you want some, like, quick and not a jar. It works. It was fine, but not great. Not great. It was. It was good, but not great.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah.
Matt Abeticola
Good, but not great. But I just. I wanted this. I did a Friday. I went to the store and grabbed the stuff because I wanted to try it.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. You know, that's the kind of thing where it's worth freezing in, like, servable quantities because it's probably as good or better.
Matt Abeticola
Oh, fine. For the kids.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. I would put basil in there, though. Like, how can you do that without.
Matt Abeticola
So after I. I tried it, I just. I put dried basil in. I didn't have any fresh. I put dried basil in. Some oregano as well, too, obviously, a little salt and pepper. It probably would be great for the kids, but I just. I wanted a little more. A little more taste to it. That's all.
Dan Bernstein
You're putting some sugar. Make a pizza sauce out of it.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, you could do that, too. When I do pizza sauce, though, I don't. I don't cook my pizza sauce.
Dan Bernstein
Oh.
Matt Abeticola
Yeah, I just. I get. I get my San Marzano tomatoes. I use a San Marzano. San Marzano tomato sauce. And then I season it, and then I just. I spoon it on room temperature.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I get it. I don't make a lot of pizza myself, so I. I will. I will defer.
Matt Abeticola
Yep.
Dan Bernstein
All right. I'm starving. Great.
Matt Abeticola
All right. Go eat something.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I think I should. All right. That is forward progress for this Monday. We'll get you next time. Forward progress has stopped.
Matt Abeticola
Forward progress. A Chicago Bears podcast with Dan Bernstein and Matt Abeticola on 312 Sports.
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Dan Bernstein and Matt Abbatacola dive deep into current Chicago Bears storylines, including the unsettled left tackle competition, defensive roster moves and the reality behind turnover differentials, plus incisive takes on the franchise’s ongoing stadium saga. The hosts also discuss Justin Fields’ trade to Kansas City, dissect notable league moves, and tie it all together with honest, sometimes irreverent analysis that’s at once impassioned and pragmatic.
On the left tackle competition:
“This is a flyer of a flyer, the biggest of the flyers you can possibly have.”
— Matt (07:54)
On the stadium saga:
“I’m tired of it. I just want to hear a deal’s in place. Shovels in the ground.”
— Matt (19:02)
On the meaning of turnover margin:
“Last year’s numbers don’t matter as much as next year’s numbers.”
— Dan (34:45)
On defensive philosophy:
“They’re looking for versatility, and they’re looking for speed out of this defense.”
— Matt (32:47)
On the Justin Fields experiment:
“What I want to see is can Andy Reid speed up Fields’ processing?”
— Dan (37:55)
The dialogue is honest, slightly sardonic, and steeped in the blues and craft-beer flavor of lifelong Chicago sports talk—blunt when frustrated, passionate when hopeful, always peppered with humor and lived-in perspective.
This episode is essential listening for Bears fans interested in both granular roster minutiae and big-picture franchise direction—perfect for understanding why certain moves are made, and what they mean as the team (and its fans) wait—hungrily—for forward progress.