Freakonomics Radio Episode 614: Is the U.S. Sleeping on Threats from Russia and China?

Host: Stephen Dubner
Guest: John J. Sullivan, Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia
Release Date: December 5, 2024

In Episode 614 of Freakonomics Radio, Stephen Dubner engages in a compelling one-on-one conversation with John J. Sullivan, a seasoned diplomat and author of Midnight in Moscow: A Memoir from the Front Lines of Russia's War against the West. Sullivan provides an insider’s perspective on the fraught relationship between the United States and Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical tensions involving China.

1. Guest Introduction and Background

[07:02] Stephen Dubner introduces John J. Sullivan, highlighting his extensive career in both corporate law and government service. Sullivan has served under five U.S. Presidents, including Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and was the U.S. Ambassador to Russia from February 2020 until September 2022—during which Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. His book, Midnight in Moscow, offers a gripping account of his experiences amidst espionage, political maneuvering, and high-stakes diplomacy.

2. Context Leading to the Geneva Meeting

[03:00] - [05:05] Sullivan sets the scene for a pivotal meeting on June 16, 2021, in Geneva between President Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. The relationship at the time was tense, marked by mutual expulsions of diplomats and Biden’s condemnation of Putin’s actions, including the imprisonment of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Sullivan describes the meeting as a "one plus one," with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Putin's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov present but not directly participating in the conversation.

“Biden gave a reassurance to Putin. Look, I'm not looking for regime change in Russia. We're looking for guardrails for our relationship with Russia.”
—John J. Sullivan [04:31]

3. Dynamics of the Biden-Putin Meeting

[15:11] - [19:13] The discussion delves into the nuances of the Geneva meeting. Sullivan criticizes the U.S. approach, noting that the dialogues were more focused on Afghanistan than on the pressing issue of Ukraine—a region that ultimately became the flashpoint for Russia’s invasion six months later in February 2022. He recounts moments from the meeting where Biden appeared conciliatory, while Putin maintained a facade of levity, masking his underlying strategic intentions.

“Putin starts to chuckle. This is not a man who sat down and said, I've got a serious problem in Ukraine that's threatening the existence of my country. Let's talk, buddy.”
—John J. Sullivan [18:16]

4. Critique of U.S. Foreign Policy and Miscalculations

[06:03] - [06:19] Sullivan expresses his concerns about the current state of U.S. foreign policy, describing it as a "bit of a mess" marked by frequent miscalculations. He argues that political leaders—both Republicans and Democrats—fail to grasp the complexities of dealing with adversarial nations like Russia and China.

“If you think cutting off Ukraine is going to assist your pressure campaign on Iran, you're crazy.”
—John J. Sullivan [06:10]

5. Effectiveness and Impact of Sanctions

[26:07] - [28:37] The conversation shifts to the role of economic sanctions as a tool of U.S. foreign policy. Sullivan vehemently disagrees with political scientist Robert Pape’s assertion that sanctions are ineffective. He argues that while sanctions alone may not dictate Russian behavior, they significantly strain the Russian economy, creating internal pressures that could, over time, influence policy decisions.

“Sanctions have had a significant impact on the Russian economy. The current prime lending rate in Russia is 21%. ... the Russian people and their economy, they're going to pay a price for it.”
—John J. Sullivan [26:43]

6. Russian Domestic Narrative and Putin’s Strategy

[28:37] - [34:15] Sullivan elaborates on how Putin manipulates domestic narratives to maintain control and justify aggressive policies. He discusses the Kremlin’s efforts to suppress opposition, control media narratives, and promote a vision of Russia as a revitalized empire. This strategy involves leveraging national pride, state-controlled media, and the suppression of dissent to sustain popular support for Putin’s actions both domestically and internationally.

“I'm part of a special country with a special mission in the world.”
—John J. Sullivan [34:08]

7. Implications of a Potential Trump Presidency

[25:16] - [38:10] Sullivan assesses the possible impact of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election on U.S.-Russia relations. He acknowledges that while Trump may have a different approach to Russia, including a more transactional view of international relations, he doubts Trump would fundamentally alter the U.S. stance to the detriment of international alliances like NATO.

“The Putin Trump analogy, I mean, that's a vast overstatement. And that type of political rhetoric undermines marshaling the American people and leading the American people to oppose Putin.”
—John J. Sullivan [37:21]

Sullivan warns that if Trump were to pursue aggressive disengagement from NATO and international alliances, it could embolden Putin. However, he remains cautiously optimistic about the resilience of U.S. institutions and the separation of powers that could prevent drastic shifts in foreign policy despite Trump’s rhetoric.

8. Critique of the United Nations and International Organizations

[50:25] - [51:09] Sullivan offers a scathing critique of the United Nations, labeling it as ineffective and obsolete in the face of modern geopolitical crises. He compares the UN’s ineffectiveness to the League of Nations’ failure before World War II, suggesting that international organizations lack the authority and cohesion to counteract aggressive actions by nations like Russia.

“We have not taken seriously this threat that an aggressive nationalist Russia poses. ... completely ineffective.”
—John J. Sullivan [51:09]

9. Future Threats and the Urgency for Policy Reassessment

[52:59] - [55:09] Sullivan warns of looming global conflicts that could have dire consequences for the U.S. and the world. He cites potential flashpoints in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and Taiwan as areas where tensions could escalate into broader conflicts. Sullivan emphasizes the need for a strategic reassessment of U.S. foreign policy to address these emerging threats proactively.

“My fear is that it's going to come and we're not prepared. And the American people haven't been told how serious these risks are.”
—John J. Sullivan [54:27]

10. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In wrapping up the conversation, Sullivan underscores the critical importance of recognizing and addressing the aggressive maneuvers of Russia and the strategic competition with China. He calls for a more informed and proactive American populace and leadership to navigate the complex landscape of international relations and to safeguard national security.

“I am not Winston Churchill and I hope I'm wrong, but it's more dangerous than you think.”
—John J. Sullivan [55:02]

Notable Quotes

• [04:31] “Biden gave a reassurance to Putin. Look, I'm not looking for regime change in Russia. We're looking for guardrails for our relationship with Russia.” —John J. Sullivan

• [06:10] “If you think cutting off Ukraine is going to assist your pressure campaign on Iran, you're crazy.” —John J. Sullivan

• [18:16] “This is not a man who sat down and said, I've got a serious problem in Ukraine that's threatening the existence of my country. Let's talk, buddy.” —John J. Sullivan

• [26:43] “Sanctions have had a significant impact on the Russian economy. ... the Russian people and their economy, they're going to pay a price for it.” —John J. Sullivan

• [34:08] “I'm part of a special country with a special mission in the world.” —John J. Sullivan

• [37:21] “The Putin Trump analogy, I mean, that's a vast overstatement. ... opposes Putin.” —John J. Sullivan

• [50:25] “We have not taken seriously this threat that an aggressive nationalist Russia poses. ... completely ineffective.” —John J. Sullivan

• [55:02] “I am not Winston Churchill and I hope I'm wrong, but it's more dangerous than you think.” —John J. Sullivan

Final Thoughts

John J. Sullivan's insights reveal a deeply concerned view of U.S. foreign policy's current trajectory, particularly in dealing with Russia and China. He emphasizes the necessity for robust, well-informed policies and warns against complacency in the face of aggressive geopolitical maneuvers. Sullivan’s expertise and firsthand experience provide a sobering look at the potential threats looming on the global stage and the urgent need for strategic recalibration.

For listeners seeking to understand the intricate dynamics of international relations and the hidden challenges posed by major global powers, this episode offers a rich, informative, and thought-provoking exploration.