Freakonomics Radio Episode 620: Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore?

Release Date: January 31, 2025

In this compelling episode of Freakonomics Radio, host Stephen Dubner delves into the intriguing decline in salaries for NFL running backs, a once highly revered and well-compensated position in American football. Through insightful discussions with economists, former players, and industry experts, Dubner uncovers the multifaceted reasons behind this shift and examines whether a renaissance for running backs is on the horizon.

1. The Golden Era of Running Backs

The episode opens with nostalgic recollections of a time when running backs were the stars of the NFL. Former players Robert Smith (03:57), LeSean McCoy (03:57), and Robert Turbin (03:57) share their childhood admiration for legendary running backs like Franco Harris, Jim Brown, and Barry Sanders. Dubner himself reminisces about his obsession with Franco Harris, highlighting the physical prowess and charisma that made running backs household names.

LeSean McCoy (03:23): "Tony Dorsett was my favorite player. I had the uniform, the helmet. The running backs were bigger stars during my childhood than the quarterbacks."

2. The Analytical Shift: Economics of Running Backs

Economist Roland Fryer from Harvard takes center stage as he explores the economic factors contributing to the decline in running back salaries. Dubner references Fryer's Wall Street Journal column titled "The Economics of Running Backs" (06:12), which ignited the conversation about why running backs are now valued less compared to other positions.

Roland Fryer (06:03): "I was really interested in why salaries of running backs have declined and why they seem to be less important parts of the offense than I remembered."

Fryer collaborates with Dubner to dissect the issue, emphasizing the importance of data analysis in understanding market dynamics.

3. The Rise of Analytics and the Passing Game

Brian Burke, a sports data scientist with ESPN, discusses the role of analytics in shifting the NFL's focus from running to passing. Burke explains how statistical models like "expected points" and "expected points added" revealed that passing plays yield higher value, influencing teams to prioritize quarterbacks over running backs (08:09).

Brian Burke (08:09): "Once I built that model, it was very, very clear that passing was far superior to running."

These analytics, coupled with rule changes favoring the passing game, have significantly altered the offensive strategies across the league.

4. Impact of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA)

The 2011 CBA emerges as a pivotal moment affecting running back valuations. Robert Turbin, a former NFL running back, explains how the rookie wage scale introduced by the CBA limited how teams could compensate new players, particularly running backs, who typically have shorter career spans due to the position's physical demands (33:33).

Robert Turbin (35:15): "The CBA is really what devalued the position because... you gotta play elite level every year to get elite money."

This agreement also instituted constraints on contract negotiations, making it harder for running backs to secure long-term, lucrative deals.

5. Player Perspectives: Longevity and Injuries

Former running backs Robert Smith and Robert Turbin share personal insights into the physical toll of the position. Smith recounts his decision to retire early due to injuries, highlighting the precarious nature of running back careers (39:35).

Jeffrey Whitney (38:09): "I tore my ACL my rookie season... better to walk away early than to limp away late."

These narratives underscore the economic rationale teams use to limit investments in positions with high injury risks and short career windows.

6. Agents and Market Dynamics

LeSean McCoy, representing numerous NFL players through his agency, discusses the challenges agents face in advocating for running backs amid declining market values (41:54). McCoy explains how the scarcity of high-paying opportunities forces agents to diversify their client base beyond running backs.

LeSean McCoy (42:13): "We represent about 40 NFL players at any given time... We're involved with them in a very intimate and deep fashion."

This shift reflects broader market trends where running backs must compete with a flood of players at every other position, addressing supply and demand imbalances.

7. Case Studies: Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs

The episode examines specific instances like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, who defied the trend by securing substantial contracts despite the overall decline in running back salaries. Dubner analyzes Barkley's transformative season with the Philadelphia Eagles, questioning whether his exceptional performance could signal a temporary resurgence for running backs (21:36).

Robert Smith (38:23): "Only one or two teams can get away with that."

However, analysts like Brian Burke argue that while standout performances occur, they do not necessarily reverse the underlying economic forces at play.

8. Attempts at Negotiating Better Conditions

The discussion touches on strategies like holdouts and the proposal for a running back-specific labor designation by the International Brotherhood of Professional Running Backs, which was ultimately rejected by the National Labor Relations Board (55:48). These efforts highlight the labor tensions and legal complexities involved in attempting to reshape the market.

Jeffrey Whitney (55:48): "The market is going to decide where they value players the most and where that money is going to make the most sense for that team."

9. The Future of Running Backs: Can They Reclaim Glory?

Despite the bleak economic outlook, there is cautious optimism for a running back renaissance. LeSean McCoy suggests that cyclical trends and exceptional talents like Barkley and Derrick Henry might herald a resurgence, albeit limited (57:08).

LeSean McCoy (57:08): "If you keep those bell bottoms long enough, they'll come back."

However, experts like Brian Burke remain skeptical, emphasizing that systemic changes favoring the passing game are deeply entrenched.

Brian Burke (61:39): "It's circular... only one or two teams can get away with that."

10. Conclusion: Market Forces vs. Exceptional Talent

Stephen Dubner wraps up the episode by balancing Roland Fryer's economic analysis with the emotional attachment to the running back position. While market forces and analytics have decidedly diminished the position's value, standout players and strategic shifts by teams offer glimmers of hope for those who continue to excel despite the odds.

Roland Fryer (62:58): "The economist in me likes the results... the kid in me hopes for a running back renaissance."

Key Takeaways:

• Economic Realities: Running back salaries have declined due to a combination of rule changes, the analytical shift favoring passing, and the physical demands leading to shorter careers.

• Analytics' Role: Data-driven models have demonstrated the superior value of the passing game, leading teams to allocate more resources to quarterbacks and wide receivers.

• Impact of 2011 CBA: The collective bargaining agreement introduced a rookie wage scale and contract restrictions that disproportionately affect running backs.

• Market Dynamics: An oversupply of running backs and their limited career longevity make them less economically viable in the high-stakes NFL salary ecosystem.

• Exceptional Cases: While players like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry excel, their success has not fundamentally altered the overall trend.

• Future Prospects: Despite systemic challenges, cyclical trends and outstanding talents may offer limited opportunities for running backs to regain prominence.

This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of the economic and strategic forces reshaping the NFL, offering listeners a deeper understanding of the hidden dynamics influencing player valuations and team strategies.

Transcript Reference: Sections referenced in the summary (e.g., 03:23) correspond to specific timestamps in the provided transcript, ensuring accurate attribution of quotes and information.