Freakonomics Radio: Episode 636 - Why Aren’t We Having More Babies?

Release Date: June 13, 2025

In Episode 636 of Freakonomics Radio, titled "Why Aren’t We Having More Babies?", host Stephen Dubner delves into the complex and multifaceted issue of declining fertility rates globally. This episode marks the beginning of a three-part series, "Cradle to Grave," inspired by Gustav Klimt's painting "Death and Life," which juxtaposes the serenity of newborns against the inevitability of death. The episode explores the economic, social, and biological factors influencing family formation and fertility rates.

1. Introduction to Declining Fertility Rates

Stephen Dubner opens the episode by highlighting the dramatic decrease in global fertility rates over the past 50 years. He presents the stark contrast between past and present, noting that the US fertility rate has plummeted from over six babies per woman in the early 19th century to a record low of 1.6 today, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

Key Points:

• Historical fear of overpopulation has shifted to concerns about underpopulation.
• The global fertility rate has fallen by more than half in five decades.
• Policies aimed at increasing fertility are being considered, such as the Trump administration's proposals including a $5,000 baby bonus and federally funded fertility education programs.

2. Katherine Pakalak: A Life with Many Children

Dubner introduces Katherine Pakalak, an economics professor at the Catholic University of America, who herself is a mother of eight biological children and a stepmother to six more. Pakalak's unique perspective as both a Harvard-educated economist and a mother of 14 provides valuable insights into the personal and societal implications of large families.

Notable Quotes:

• [07:59] Katherine Pakalak: "Children are this sort of substantive good, but they probably don't obey the same laws of economic preferences where most normal goods, you eventually get satisfied by them, or we say diminishing returns."
• [12:19] Matthias Dupke: "We know that people don't respond very strongly to short run changes in policy, financial incentives."

Discussion Highlights:

• Pakalak explores why some women choose to have large families despite societal and professional pressures.
• She emphasizes that individual households are best suited to assess the costs and benefits of having children, arguing against heavy government intervention.
• Pakalak identifies cultural and value-based motivations, such as religious beliefs, as stronger influences on fertility decisions than financial incentives.

3. Economic Perspectives with Matthias Dupke

Matthias Dupke, a German-born economist teaching at the London School of Economics, joins the conversation to discuss the economic dimensions of fertility rates. Dupke, a protégé of Nobel laureate Gary Becker, explains how family economics significantly impacts broader economic outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• [14:58] Matthias Dupke: "If an economy is shrinking in population, it will also shrink in economic output."
• [23:29] Matthias Dupke: "Looking at the past, if you think about the decline from six children to two in the United States and the same thing happening in every country that's now rich. It has been a fantastic thing."

Discussion Highlights:

• Dupke elaborates on the "quantity-quality" trade-off, where higher income leads to fewer children but greater investment in each child's education and well-being.
• He discusses contemporary factors contributing to lower fertility rates, including increased workforce participation among women and the rise of intensive parenting.
• The correlation between government spending on childcare and fertility rates is examined, highlighting that countries with higher public support for childcare tend to have higher fertility rates.
• Dupke emphasizes the economic benefits of declining fertility rates, such as mass education and the demographic dividend, while also addressing the challenges of an aging population and shrinking workforce.

4. Biological Insights from Diana Laird

Diana Laird, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco, provides a biological perspective on fertility. Laird's research focuses on the development of eggs and the reproductive lifespan of women.

Notable Quotes:

• [33:14] Diana Laird: "My lab is really interested in where our eggs come from, developmentally speaking, how that process plays out, how it affects aging and the 39 years in humans that we have for our ovaries to actually work and make babies."
• [36:02] Diana Laird: "It's a very human experience and it's how we continue our species. Unfortunately, the research funds for understanding the basics of reproduction and fertility have been pretty meager."

Discussion Highlights:

• Laird discusses the mysterious decline in the number of viable eggs from birth to menopause, a process not fully understood.
• She highlights the challenges in studying early embryonic development due to funding and regulatory restrictions.
• The lack of scientific insights into female reproductive biology hampers efforts to address fertility issues effectively.

5. Historical Context with Amy Freud

Amy Freud, a historian at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, provides a historical lens on fertility trends and policies. She compares contemporary concerns about low fertility with historical efforts to manage population growth in early modern Europe.

Notable Quotes:

• [39:33] Amy Freud: "One of the things that my work shows is that fertility rates have declined in other time periods and in other places."
• [41:55] Amy Freud: "It's hard to prove causality, but we do see in some areas that live births and successful live births were going up."

Discussion Highlights:

• Freud recounts England's 1695 Marriage Duty Act, which taxed bachelors and childless widowers to encourage marriage and childbearing, though it was short-lived.
• In contrast, France under Louis XIV promoted marriage through financial incentives and invested in training female midwives, leading to improved childbirth outcomes.
• The episode draws parallels between historical and modern attempts to influence fertility, emphasizing the enduring nature of societal concerns about population size.
• Freud suggests that past policies, both punitive and incentivizing, had limited success and often led to unintended negative consequences.

6. Policy Implications and Future Directions

The episode concludes with a discussion on potential policies to address declining fertility rates. Both Pakalak and Dupke suggest that financial incentives alone are insufficient to significantly influence fertility decisions. Instead, broader societal changes are necessary.

Notable Quotes:

• [48:20] Stephen Dubner: "If you were Secretary of Higher Fertility in Washington in a future time, what would be your best ideas?"
• [49:35] Katherine Pakalak: "I like to think that religious liberty is a good policy decision for countries of any type at any point in time."

Discussion Highlights:

• Dupke advocates for policies that enhance work-life balance, such as better childcare provisions and more flexible job arrangements.
• Pakalak emphasizes the importance of preserving individual and religious freedoms, suggesting that fostering supportive community and cultural environments may be more effective than direct government intervention.
• The experts agree that addressing the root causes of low fertility, including economic pressures and societal expectations, is crucial for any meaningful policy impact.

7. Concluding Thoughts

Stephen Dubner wraps up the episode by reflecting on the nuanced narratives surrounding fertility rates. While declining fertility poses economic challenges, it also brings opportunities for greater investment in children's well-being and potential societal benefits from a concentrated workforce. The episode underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between economic incentives, cultural values, and biological factors in shaping fertility trends.

Additional Resources:

• Katherine Pakalak's Book: Hannah’s: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth (Published in 2024)
• Matthias Dupke's Co-authored Book: Love Money and How Economics Explains the Way We Raise Our Kids

Notable Timestamps:

• [01:39] Introduction of Katherine Pakalak
• [07:59] Pakalak's insights on children as a substantive good
• [14:58] Dupke on economic growth and population
• [33:14] Diana Laird on the biological aspects of fertility
• [39:33] Amy Freud on historical fertility trends
• [48:20] Discussion on policy implications

This comprehensive exploration of fertility rates blends economic theory, personal narratives, biological research, and historical context to provide listeners with a deep understanding of why societies worldwide are experiencing declines in birth rates and what it means for the future.