Freakonomics Radio - Episode 638: "Are You Ready for the Elder Swell?"

Release Date: June 27, 2025

In episode 638 of Freakonomics Radio, titled "Are You Ready for the Elder Swell?", host Stephen Dubner explores a significant demographic shift—the rise of the "Elder Swell." This phenomenon refers to the projected increase in the population of individuals aged 65 and older, which, within the next decade, is expected to surpass the number of people aged 18 and younger in the United States. Dubner, alongside experts Kyla Scanlon, James Chappell, and Andrew Scott, delves into the causes, implications, and potential solutions to this emerging societal trend.

Understanding the Elder Swell

Dubner opens the episode with compelling statistics that highlight the urgency of the Elder Swell. He explains that this shift is driven primarily by two factors: declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. Advances in public health, medical care, better nutrition, and peaceful living conditions have all contributed to people living longer and healthier lives.

Quote:
Stephen Dubner [00:02]: "Within 10 years, there will likely be more people in the US 65 and older than there are people 18 and younger. This is a brand new state of affairs and the rest of the world is following the same path."

Beyond simply living longer, Dubner emphasizes the importance of "health span" versus "lifespan." Health span refers to the number of years individuals remain healthy and active, not just the total years lived.

Quote:
Stephen Dubner [03:12]: "The real headline of the Elder Swell is not just that more people will be living more years, it's that those years are expected to be better."

He cites a study by the International Monetary Fund which found that modern 70-year-olds are in much better physical and cognitive health compared to their counterparts in the year 2000.

Historical Context and Policy Evolution

To provide a comprehensive understanding, Dubner introduces Kyla Scanlon, an economic educator, who discusses the historical development of American policies addressing aging. Scanlon references James Chappell, a history professor at Duke University, whose book "Golden: How Americans Invented and Reinvented Old Age" explores the evolution of Social Security, Medicare, and other elder care policies.

Quote:
Kyla Scanlon [12:22]: "Compared to the other problems that America faces, like child poverty or racial inequality, older people are doing reasonably well."

The episode recounts early proposals like the Townsend Plan from the 1930s, which aimed to provide pensions to all Americans over 60. While visionary in its egalitarian approach, the plan was deemed financially unsustainable and lacked political support, particularly from President Franklin Roosevelt.

Quote:
Kyla Scanlon [13:12]: "Some people think it was a crackpot carnival barker scheme. Some people think it was a beautiful utopian dream."

Instead, the more conservative and contributory Social Security system was implemented, which has since played a crucial role in reducing old-age poverty.

Quote:
Kyla Scanlon [15:10]: "If I could design a system from scratch, is this what I, or most economists now, to be honest, even in the 1930s would have designed?"

Scanlon emphasizes the need to modernize these systems to accommodate the current and future aging population, highlighting that while Social Security and Medicare have been effective, they require updates to remain sustainable.

Current Challenges and Economic Perspectives

The discussion transitions to the present-day challenges posed by the Elder Swell. The ratio of workers to Social Security beneficiaries has declined significantly, complicating the financial sustainability of Social Security.

Quote:
Kyla Scanlon [28:24]: "The first thing is about the same amount of spending. Cause unfortunately, I think you've still gotta deal with the current disease burden."

James Chappell, an economics professor at London Business School and author of "Longevity: How to Build a Healthier and More Productive Society to Support Our Longer Lives," provides insights into transforming the economy to support a longer-lived population. He advocates for an "evergreen economy" that focuses on maintaining health and productivity throughout extended lifespans, rather than viewing aging solely as a societal burden.

Quote:
James Chappell [33:23]: "My big thing is to focus on a longevity society rather than an aging society."

Chappell highlights the importance of creating "age-friendly jobs" that accommodate older workers by offering roles that are less physically demanding, more flexible, and provide greater autonomy. This approach aims to retain the valuable skills and experience of older individuals in the workforce.

Innovations and Startups in the Elder Care Space

Kyla Scanlon interviews Andrew Scott, an economic commentator, and Katie Fike, co-founder of Aging 2.0 and Managing Partner at Generator Ventures. They discuss the intersection of technology, startups, and elder care, focusing on innovations designed to improve the health and longevity of both humans and pets.

Celine Haliwa, CEO of Loyal, is introduced as a key player in extending the lifespan and health span of dogs. Loyal has developed drugs aimed at making dogs live longer and healthier lives, serving as a precursor to similar human-focused initiatives.

Quote:
Celine Haliwa [09:34]: "We aren't working on developing drugs for any specific disease per se. It's really more about taking your currently relatively healthy, albeit aged dog and having them live longer and healthier."

Katie Fike discusses her venture capital firm's focus on aging-related startups, emphasizing the importance of bringing together experts from gerontology and technology to address the unique needs of an aging population.

Quote:
Katie Fike [47:03]: "I realized that these worlds were just so separated. The people in aging care services, the ones who really understood the needs, didn't know the people who were creating the apps or creating the business models, the people who were launching new startup companies, didn't even know about some of the opportunities that were hiding in plain sight in the aging space."

Personal Reflections and Ethical Considerations

Andrew Scott shares personal reflections on the impact of longevity research on his life and that of his dog. He underscores the emotional and ethical dimensions of extending life, particularly in ensuring that these additional years are lived healthily and meaningfully.

Quote:
Andrew Scott [55:48]: "I have a dog too, and she's the same."

Katie Fike touches on the ethical aspects of longevity work, clarifying that the goal is not immortality but rather enhancing the quality of life through preventative medicine.

Quote:
Katie Fike [10:42]: "I'm definitely not an immortalist. I'm not trying to make people live till 150 or 1000. I just think longevity and lifespan extension drugs are a kind of sexy way to talk about preventative medicine for age related diseases."

Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations

James Chappell proposes three major policy ideas to achieve what he terms the "longevity dividend":

1. Raise Workforce Participation: Encouraging individuals to work longer by creating supportive policies and age-friendly job opportunities.
2. Boost Productivity of Older Workers: Enhancing the productivity of older employees through training and better workplace practices.
3. Incrementally Increase Retirement Age: Gradually raising the retirement age in line with increased health spans.

Quote:
James Chappell [37:54]: "In your book you propose three major policy ideas for countries to achieve this longevity dividend that you call it, including raising the proportion of people working in the years running up to retirement, boosting productivity of older workers and increasing the retirement age."

He emphasizes that policies should support older individuals in remaining productive rather than merely pressuring them to extend their working years without adequate support.

Quote:
James Chappell [38:20]: "If you could slow half that rate of decline, 80% of people age 50 are working a third by 65. If you could half that, that gives you 4% of GDP every single year."

Chappell also critiques current government approaches, advocating for a shift from viewing older adults as a market to seeing them as a vital and productive part of society.

Quote:
Kyla Scanlon [25:50]: "Yes, that's right. And not as a category of need that we all share and that therefore the government should be involved in."

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Andrew Scott sharing his philosophical views on longevity and the potential for continuous personal growth and education throughout an extended lifespan. Dubner underscores the critical need for society to adapt its policies and attitudes to support the Elder Swell, ensuring that the additional years people live are healthy, productive, and fulfilling.

Quote:
Andrew Scott [57:22]: "I would have."

Stephen Dubner wraps up by highlighting the personal and societal transformations necessary to embrace the Elder Swell, emphasizing that proactive and innovative approaches are essential for a sustainable and thriving aging population.

Key Takeaways:

1. Demographic Shift: The Elder Swell represents a significant demographic change with profound implications for economy, healthcare, and societal structures.
2. Historical Progress: Social Security and Medicare have effectively reduced old-age poverty, but these systems need modernization to remain sustainable.
3. Economic Adaptation: Emphasizing an evergreen economy that leverages the productivity and health of older populations is essential for economic growth.
4. Technological Innovation: Startups like Loyal and initiatives like Aging 2.0 exemplify innovative approaches to extend health spans and improve quality of life.
5. Policy Reform: Policy recommendations include increasing workforce participation, enhancing older workers' productivity, and gradually raising the retirement age.
6. Ethical Considerations: Longevity work focuses on enhancing life quality rather than achieving immortality, requiring careful ethical considerations.
7. Future Prospects: Society must balance economic needs with supportive measures for an aging population, ensuring policies are inclusive and forward-thinking.

This episode of Freakonomics Radio offers a comprehensive exploration of the Elder Swell, providing listeners with valuable insights into how society can adapt to and thrive amidst this unprecedented demographic transformation.