Freakonomics Radio Episode 642: "How to Wage Peace, According to Tony Blinken"

Host: Stephen Dubner
Guest: Antony Blinken, Former Secretary of State
Release Date: July 25, 2025

I. Introduction and Overview

In Episode 642 of Freakonomics Radio, host Stephen Dubner engages in a profound conversation with Antony Blinken, the former U.S. Secretary of State. The discussion delves into Blinken's extensive experience in U.S. foreign policy, his perspectives on global conflicts, and the intricate dynamics of international relations. The episode also touches upon Blinken’s personal background, shedding light on how his family history has shaped his worldview.

II. Family Influences and Shaping of Worldview ([04:09] - [08:03])

Blinken opens by introducing himself succinctly, prompting Dubner to inquire about his name and family background.

Notable Quote:
"I think so many of us are the product, in no small measure, of the conversations we have around our dining room tables... My grandfather produced a study showing that Israel would be economically viable, influencing the U.S. to recognize Israel."
([05:03])

Blinken recounts his grandfather's immigration from Ukraine and his stepfather's harrowing experiences during the Holocaust. These narratives instilled in Blinken a deep sense of empathy and a commitment to alleviating suffering worldwide.

III. The Israel-Palestine Conflict ([12:00] - [19:41])

A significant portion of the conversation centers on the evolving perception of Israel and the complexities of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Notable Quote:
"There is no hierarchy of suffering. When I looked at what happened on October 7, it resonated deeply with me because it was the worst slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust... But I also felt very strongly what happened every day after October 7, including the horrific suffering of Palestinian boys and girls."
([12:01])

Blinken articulates the shift in global sentiment towards Israel, attributing it to a combination of historical contexts, policy decisions, and ongoing conflicts. He highlights the challenges in achieving a two-state solution, emphasizing the roles of both external pressures and internal governance issues within the Palestinian Authority.

IV. US Foreign Policy and State Department Dynamics ([21:33] - [35:05])

The discussion transitions to the recent layoffs within the State Department and their implications for U.S. diplomacy, especially concerning China.

Notable Quote:
"The extraordinary young men and women who've dedicated their lives to public service... If we're diminishing our capacity to do that work by eliminating so many jobs, I think it's a big mistake for us."
([30:51])

Blinken criticizes the reduction in State Department personnel, underscoring the adverse effects on the U.S.’s ability to effectively compete with China globally. He stresses the importance of maintaining a robust diplomatic presence to counterbalance China's expanding international influence.

V. Middle East Dynamics: Syria and Iran ([35:05] - [39:56])

Blinken provides insights into the recent political upheaval in Syria and the complex relationship with Iran.

Notable Quote:
"The test is, of course, not what he says, but what he does. And he's got a massively challenging job... The real question is, what's his present?"
([25:44])

Discussing Syria's new president, a former Al Qaeda commander, Blinken expresses cautious optimism but remains vigilant about the regime’s true intentions. On Iran, he highlights the regime's deep-seated opposition to the U.S. and the significant challenges in fostering diplomatic relations.

VI. US-China Relations and Global Diplomacy ([35:05] - [60:57])

A critical analysis of the current state of U.S.-China relations forms a core part of the conversation. Blinken emphasizes the strategic disadvantages the U.S. faces due to diplomatic cutbacks and the increasing diplomatic footprint of China.

Notable Quote:
"Back in 2014, all of the NATO countries agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defense... By the time President Biden left office, 23 of the allies were spending 2%. That's very positive."
([59:56])

He underscores the necessity of engaging collaboratively with global allies to effectively counterbalance China's ambitions, advocating for enhanced diplomatic efforts and strategic partnerships.

VII. Political Partisanship and Human Progress ([61:03] - [49:00])

Blinken reflects on the heightened political partisanship in the U.S., discussing its origins and impacts on both domestic policies and international relations.

Notable Quote:
"I still feel strongly that these forces that drive human progress... are still there, they're still strong, they're still powerful. Part of our job is to figure out how to maximize them."
([65:13])

He argues that while partisanship is both a consequence and an accelerant of broader political and economic challenges, the inherent potential for human progress remains potent and essential for overcoming current adversities.

VIII. Reflections and Final Thoughts ([65:30] - [72:27])

In the concluding segments, Blinken shares his optimism about future generations and the enduring spirit of collaboration and progress.

Notable Quote:
"Successive generations usually are smarter, better than the one that preceded them... If we're really off course on something, does it take a Titanic moment to put us back on course?"
([67:22])

He expresses hope that younger generations will continue the arc of progress despite current interruptions and challenges, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making and historical awareness.

Conclusion

The episode offers an in-depth exploration of global politics through the expert lens of Antony Blinken. From personal family histories influencing diplomatic approaches to the strategic intricacies of international conflicts, Blinken provides a nuanced perspective on how waging peace requires both understanding historical contexts and fostering collaborative efforts in an increasingly complex world.

Final Thought:
"There have been 80 extraordinary years of progress... [but] the question is whether that arc can continue and we can try to make sure that when it's under incredible strain, it doesn't break."
([48:35])

Blinken underscores the resilience of human progress and the collective responsibility to sustain and nurture it amidst modern challenges.

Notable Quotes Recap:

• “I think so many of us are the product... stories we hear from our families.” ([05:03])
• “There is no hierarchy of suffering...” ([12:01])
• “If we're diminishing our capacity to do that work by eliminating so many jobs...” ([30:51])
• “The test is, of course, not what he says, but what he does.” ([25:44])
• “If we're really off course on something, does it take a Titanic moment to put us back on course?” ([67:22])
• “Successive generations usually are smarter...” ([67:22])

This episode is a compelling narrative that intertwines personal history with global policy, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the complexities involved in waging peace in today's volatile world.