Freakonomics Radio – Episode 649

"Should Ohio State (and Michigan, and Clemson) Join the N.F.L.?"

Air Date: October 10, 2025
Host: Stephen J. Dubner

Episode Overview

This episode explores a provocative question from a listener: Should the U.S. professional sports model—dominated by closed, monopolistic leagues like the NFL—adopt a promotion and relegation system, as seen in European soccer? Specifically, should powerhouse college football programs such as Ohio State, Michigan, and Clemson be able to play their way into the NFL, while struggling NFL teams risk relegation? Stephen Dubner and his guests break down the historical, economic, and cultural factors that shape the current landscape, examine the pros and cons of an open pyramid system, and discuss both the wild appeal and practical limitations of fundamentally reimagining American sports.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Listener’s Provocative Question

• A Scottish listener wonders if the NFL should abandon its monopoly and adopt a European-style pyramid system with promotion and relegation, allowing more athletes longer careers and more teams community engagement. (01:04)

2. The Deep Divide: U.S. vs. European Sports Models

• Stefan Chyminski (Sport Management Professor, Univ. of Michigan) delineates the core difference:
  • U.S.: Sharp divide between college (amateur) and professional sport.
  • Europe: Amateurs and professionals mingle within a pyramid system—creating tiers with upward and downward mobility.
  • “Leagues are human-designed structures… often shaped by what someone worried about 150 years ago.” (Stefan Chyminski, 06:39)
• Historical Roots:
  • U.S.: Baseball drew a hard line between amateur and pro players, leading to separate leagues.
  • U.K.: Soccer allowed professionals to remain in the same associations as amateurs, which encouraged integration and eventual pyramid promotion and relegation.
  • “The segregation of amateur and professional versus the integration… differentiates the way sports evolved in the US and the rest of the world.” (Chyminski, 09:02)

3. Pathways for Athletes

• UK: Talented athletes enter youth club systems at age 10; rarely go to university if destined for pro sports (10:05).
• US: The path runs through high school, college teams, then possibly the pros—system benefits both pro owners (who get free development) and colleges (reputation and revenue).
• "It makes sense for the owners of NFL teams for sure. They essentially get all the talent for free, fully trained up and fully developed." (Chyminski, 10:46)

4. Life as a Pro Player: The Harsh Realities

• Dominique Foxworth (Ex-NFL player, sportscaster, union leader) shares the precariousness of athletic careers:

  • Average NFL career is just 3.3 years.
  • First contracts, though large by normal standards, are rarely life-changing; security comes only with later (if any) contracts.
  • "The first contract... is a lot of money for a 22 year old guy. But it’s your whole life… It’s not a great deal of financial security." (Foxworth, 11:52)
  • Emotional toll: pressure, instability, and career-threatening events (trades, injuries, organizational changes).
  • Insurance policies are relatively rare and not a locker-room topic (16:11).

• Victor Matheson (Sports Economist, College of the Holy Cross):

  • “In the NFL, it’s kind of all or nothing. You either make the NFL or you don’t.” (Matheson, 17:15)
  • In contrast, European soccer offers "middle class" athletic careers in multiple tiers—not just the top league.

5. How Promotion & Relegation Works—and Why It Matters

• Advantages:

  • Games at every level matter: “The biggest one is that games among the worst teams still matter.” (Matheson, 19:15)
  • Career & community opportunities: Far more professional athletes, coaches, and associated jobs—even in smaller towns.
  • Social benefits: College teams, like European soccer clubs, are tied to communities and tradition—not just revenue.
  • “Sport today is one of the biggest forms of social community that we have.” (Chyminski, 25:00)

• Mechanics:

  • “Parachute payments” in the UK: Relegated teams get financial support to soften the blow (20:39).
  • Smaller clubs dream of climbing the ladder; even being briefly promoted is transformative (the “most valuable game on the planet” is a promotion playoff worth $50M+, 27:32).

• Memorable Moment:

  • Recounting the dramatic 2013 Leicester City vs. Watford playoff (28:05–29:30), leading into Leicester’s eventual Premier League miracle run.

6. Could NCAA Football Become a True Pro “Second Division”?

• Potential Merger: Top college teams join the NFL pyramid with regular promotion and relegation—revolutionizing both systems.

  • Chyminski: "If you weren't born in America, you weren’t raised in America, this seems like, well, motherhood and apple pie. It seems natural, sensible, obvious…" (31:44)

• Obstacles:

  • NFL owners would resist—why risk billion-dollar franchise value for the possibility of relegation?
  • Dubner: "Could you imagine a Super Bowl in 10 years between the Dallas Cowboys and the University of Michigan Wolverines?" (34:48)
  • Chyminski: “Obviously the Wolverines would win…” (35:06, tongue-in-cheek)

• Strengths of NCAA in the Pyramid Model:

  • Large institutions with loyal regional followings.
  • Structures echo European club regionalism.
  • Promotion/relegation would naturally solve many “conference alignment” headaches in college sports (32:46–33:34).

7. The Owners’ Dilemma: Why Change a Lucrative Status Quo?

• Matheson: Owners have little incentive—“If you buy your way into that league, you’re there forever.” (43:23)
• The risk is simply too high: losing top-tier status would destroy asset values.
• Foxworth: “Why would you take hold of this unwieldy beast while right now you got a cash cow?” (45:57)
• Attempts to build a closed, elite Super League in European soccer—inspired by U.S. models and often led by American owners—were stymied by massive fan pushback (54:06–55:00).

8. Fan, Political, and Economic Realities

• Foxworth: NFL owners aren’t motivated by “doing the right thing”—they prize profits and power. Even with political support for college sports, money would win out (46:59–50:15).
• Fan loyalty to college sports is deeply emotional; many would resist merging with pros (50:15).
• Dubner floats the threat of college football invading NFL's Sunday TV slot, but Foxworth is skeptical NFL owners would be outmaneuvered (48:54).

9. Is This Even Possible?

• Matheson: “It would be wildly disruptive to move from a current closed system to an open system. That’s never going to happen without some sort of benevolent overlord like me.” (44:45)
• Both Matheson and Chyminski put the odds of such a change in the next 20 years at less than 5%. (57:51)
• Historic example: Minor League Baseball ballooned after WWII but collapsed when TV drew eyes to major league teams—a pyramid system would have sustained more local clubs (56:04–57:22).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Leagues are human designed structures. They don’t fall from heaven ready-made.”
  – Stefan Chyminski (06:39)

• “In the NFL, it’s kind of all or nothing. You either make the NFL or you don’t.”
  – Victor Matheson (17:15)

• “The biggest one is that games among the worst teams still matter.”
  – Victor Matheson (19:15)

• “Sport today is one of the biggest forms of social community that we have.”
  – Stefan Chyminski (25:00)

• “Owners, they don’t want to all of a sudden own a minor league team.”
  – Victor Matheson (43:23)

• “Why would you take hold of this unwieldy beast while right now you got a cash cow?”
  – Dominique Foxworth (45:57)

• “Crazy doesn’t mean bad. Lots of the best ideas are quite crazy.”
  – Dominique Foxworth (45:28)

• “I would put [the likelihood of such a merger] at less than 5%.”
  – Stefan Chyminski (57:51)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |---|---| | Why the NFL's model? The listener's question and European comparison | 01:04–04:26 | | Historical roots of league structure: U.S. vs. Europe | 05:31–09:34 | | Athlete career paths and what works for owners | 09:46–11:04 | | Dominique Foxworth’s journey as an NFL player: the realities | 11:04–17:15 | | Promotion and relegation: how it works, why it matters | 18:00–25:07 | | Cultural, economic benefits for communities | 24:07–25:16 | | Could the merger model work in the U.S.? Pros, cons, obstacles | 31:44–37:13 | | Owners’ financial motivations—why incentive is absent | 43:23–44:45 | | Fan/political realities, lobbying and power play | 46:38–51:19 | | European soccer’s attempted pivot toward U.S.-style closed leagues | 54:06–56:04 | | How TV killed U.S. minor leagues but not European soccer | 56:04–57:22 | | Final assessment: Will it ever happen? | 57:22–57:54 |

Conclusion

While the idea of merging college and pro sports leagues, with promotion and relegation to foster competition and opportunity, has clear social and competitive upsides (and is “motherhood and apple pie” to non-American eyes), the entrenched economic and cultural interests of pro leagues—especially the NFL—make it highly unlikely. The episode delivers both a rich history lesson and a lively what-if, ultimately concluding that radical change faces enormous, possibly insurmountable, barriers. But as the history of sports shows, long shots sometimes come in.

Further Listening & Reading

• Previous Freakonomics episode: [Ep. 557 – "When Is a Superstar Just Another Employee?"]
• "The Longest Long Shot" (Freakonomics episode on Leicester City)
• Read the full transcript at Freakonomics.com

Want to weigh in? Email radioreconomics@freakonomics.com