Freakonomics Radio: “Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore? (Update)”

Date: February 4, 2026
Host: Stephen J. Dubner
Key Guests: Roland Fryer, Brian Burke, Jeffrey Whitney, LaShawn McCoy, Robert Turbin, Robert Smith

Overview: The Running Back’s Great Decline

This episode revisits and updates Freakonomics Radio’s deep dive into why NFL running backs—once football’s glamour position—have seen their salaries, stardom, and value plummet. Host Stephen J. Dubner teams up with Harvard economist Roland Fryer to unpack the economic, historical, and strategic forces behind the evolution. With input from former NFL stars, top data analysts, and a seasoned player agent, the episode reveals how analytics, rule changes, business decisions, and market forces conspired to downgrade one of football’s most iconic roles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rise and Fall of the NFL Running Back

• Running Backs, Once Idols: In the ‘70s and ‘80s, running backs like Franco Harris, Barry Sanders, and Tony Dorsett were NFL icons. Now, not even the top five highest-paid players on their teams are running backs.
• Historic Salary Plunge:
  • In 1990, average RB salaries were second only to quarterbacks.
  • In 2024, RBs rank 15th by position salary—behind QBs, linemen, receivers, even some defenders.
  • [03:10] Stephen Dubner: “If you go back 30 years… running backs ranked second, just behind quarterbacks. This year, running backs ranked 15th. So what happened?”

2. Roland Fryer’s Quest: What Killed the RB Market?

• Slow, Steady Decline:
  • [05:34] Roland Fryer: “It’s been kind of a slow drip, a slow decline of running backs. And then you think, why? What is it?”
• Economics Versus Nostalgia: Fryer admires RBs for their athleticism but admits the market is driven by cold, hard value metrics.
  • [06:37] Fryer: “Where does our intuition fail us? … How we think about the use of economics, when it comes to issues like valuing positions in a game as complex as football.”

3. Analytics Revolution and the Triumph of Passing

• Analytics Guru Brian Burke:
  • [07:20] Burke: “Once I built that model, it was very, very clear that passing was far superior to running.”
  • Advanced “expected points” models showed that teams gained more yardage, points, and wins by passing. The Nash Equilibrium for play-calling shifted sharply toward throwing the football.
• Rule Changes Fueling the Shift:
  • 1978 and 2004 NFL rule changes made it easier and safer to pass, further unbalancing the value equation.
  • [26:14] Burke: “In those days, passing was very, very difficult. So running was a much better strategy. And then in 1978, the league massively rewrote the rules… Over time, the potency of the running game compared to the passing game has decreased steadily.”

4. Structural Shifts: The CBA and Running Back “Perishability”

• Rogue CBA Structure (2011):
  • Fixed rookie wage scale and team control for five years hit RBs hardest. By age 27, many are worn down, making them less marketable for a lucrative “second contract.”
  • [32:13] Robert Turbin: “You are handcuffed for five years. So realistically you don’t have an opportunity to re-up or get a second contract until you’re 27 years old.”
• Violence and Short Careers: RBs endure the “most violent position in the most violent sport” ([44:15] Jeffrey Whitney). Career length has dropped from 5.5 years (pre-2011) to about 2.5 years.

5. Teams Change Strategy: RB by Committee

• More About Scheme Than Star: Most teams now rotate backs, invest in offensive lines, and accept “95% of a superstar” for a fraction of the price.
  • [45:12] Burke: “You don’t necessarily need a great running back. What you need is a great running game.”
• Supply Exceeds Demand: More capable RBs come out of college than teams need—and mobile QBs eat into RB production.

6. Holdouts, “Carve-Outs,” and Future Hope

• Player Action is Limited: Holdouts (e.g., Le’Veon Bell) rarely work long-term; attempts by RBs to unionize separately failed.
  • [52:58] Dubner: “Labor lawyers call a unit clarification… the NLRB rejected their request.”
• Cyclicality and Renaissance?: Some see signs of an uptick in the running game; others, like analyst Robert Smith, say the changes are structural and won’t reverse.
  • [53:58] Whitney: “Everything is cyclical, right? If you keep those bell bottoms long enough, they’ll come back.”
  • [57:02] Smith: “I don’t think so. ... Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry … are outliers.”

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• [06:16] Roland Fryer (jokingly, on co-hosting the episode): “I’ve always had a crush on you, Steven, so I just want to get closer.”
• [13:45] Fryer on RB decline: “Players’ combine abilities haven’t changed, but the expected value of a passing play relative to a running play has.”
• [16:41] LaShawn McCoy, ex-All Pro RB: “I hate it. It’s unfair. … I gotta play elite level every year to get elite money. But the quarterback can play above average for years and one year be pretty good. And now you about to get elite money.”
• [17:29] Fryer responding: “But on the other hand, I don’t see any Super Bowl winners in the last 20 years with a mediocre quarterback... I see several with average running backs and really good quarterbacks. Is that a reason the quarterback position is valued more?”
• [29:01] Robert Turbin on the CBA: “Basically you are handcuffed for 5 years. … By the time you’re 27, if you’ve carried the ball 250 times per year, they’re going to look at those numbers and say well, he may not have it the way he used to.”
• [35:29] Robert Smith on the unique glory and danger: “Only the quarterback has the ball in their hands more. … On every running play, 11 guys are trying to hit the same person.”
• [44:15] Jeffrey Whitney, player agent: “Make no mistake about it, the running back is the most violent position in the most violent sport on the planet.”
• [59:00] Roland Fryer’s advice to young RBs: “Learn how to throw.”
• [59:41] Fryer, torn between analysis and nostalgia: “The economist in me likes the results… but the kid in me hopes for a running back renaissance.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00 – 05:00: Opening dilemma—How did running backs go from stars to afterthoughts?
• 05:00 – 11:00: Dubner and Fryer introduce the question; RB nostalgia and history.
• 13:00 – 18:00: Analytics prove passing’s superior value.
• 29:45 – 34:38: Collective Bargaining Agreement changes and “running back perishability.”
• 35:07 – 37:30: Robert Smith on the physical cost and emotional calculus of playing running back.
• 41:00 – 44:15: Declining agent interest, “committee” usage, outpacing by other positions.
• 45:12 – 47:20: How success depends on blocking/offensive line; diversity in running schemes.
• 49:03 – 52:32: Can holdouts, separate unions, or activism change anything?
• 53:49 – 58:51: Is a running back renaissance possible? The cyclical hope versus cold analysis.
• 59:00 – 60:07: Closing: Fryer’s economist vs. football fan duality.

Conclusion

The episode underscores a classic Freakonomics motif: what looks like unfairness or irrationality often has a hidden economic logic. The running back’s fate in the NFL is less about romance and toughness, and more about incentives, optimization, and business strategy. Despite brief hopeful blips (stellar seasons by Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry), both quantitative analysis and league-wide structural shifts point to a game that will keep prioritizing the forward pass—and paying for it.

Final Takeaway:
If your child dreams of gridiron glory, maybe steer them toward quarterback—or, as Jeffrey Whitney recommends, learn to long-snap. As for running backs, as the market stands: “Be more productive… or learn to throw.”