Fresh Air — Inside the Explosive Growth of Sports Betting
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Tonya Mosley
Guest: McKay Coppins, Writer at The Atlantic

Episode Overview

This episode explores the skyrocketing expansion of sports betting in America and its ripple effects on society, culture, and even geopolitics. Host Tonya Mosley interviews Atlantic journalist McKay Coppins, who spent an NFL season immersed in sports gambling—despite his background as a Mormon, for whom gambling is religiously prohibited. They discuss Coppins’ personal experiment, the evolution of U.S. gambling laws, industry ties to sports and media, the rise of “prediction markets,” and the profound ethical and regulatory dilemmas now facing America.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. McKay Coppins’ Gambling Experiment

• Genesis of the Experiment:
  • Assigned to report on sports betting’s effect on American culture, Coppins’ editors suggested he experience it firsthand, despite religious constraints (02:36).
  • Coppins was staked $10,000 by his employer with losses covered and winnings split 50-50 to simulate the stakes of real gamblers.

“Their theory was, well, God will approve of it, which I will say I ran that idea by my bishop just to see what he thought. And he sort of tentatively gave his blessing, even if he wasn’t wild about the idea.” (03:33, McKay Coppins)

• Initial Experience:
  • Entered the field unfamiliar with betting jargon or strategies (04:40).
  • Sought advice from statistician Nate Silver, who highlighted how steep the odds are against average gamblers—emphasizing that “winning even one penny” puts you in the top 2% (07:34).
  • Nate Silver’s dry observation:

    “If you win one penny, you will be in the top 2% of sports bettors.” (07:37, relayed by McKay Coppins)

2. The Modern Explosion of Legal Sports Betting

• Staggering Industry Growth:
  • U.S. legal sports bets soared from $4.9 billion (2017) to at least $160 billion (last year) (09:27).
• Legal Shifts:
  • Key turning point: 2018 Supreme Court decision overturning the federal ban, sparking a wave of legalization nationwide (09:52).
• Dramatic Shift in Sports Leagues’ Attitudes:
  • Leagues (NFL, NBA) went from condemning gambling as a threat to “running toward the money” almost overnight (12:46).
  • Used as a tool to engage young fans and offset declining TV ratings.

3. Integrity Crisis & Scandals

• Recent FBI Investigations:
  • Multiple interlocking gambling schemes uncovered, including Mafia-tied poker and NBA game rigging (14:04).
  • Example: Player Terry Rozier allegedly informed associates to bet against his own performance (14:25).

“To gamble on sports in 2026 is to almost inevitably become a conspiracy theorist... you can’t help but wonder, are there athletes who are rigging this game?” (18:00, McKay Coppins)

• Conflicts of Interest:
  • Leagues and sports media are financially entangled with betting platforms, raising serious questions about enforcement and oversight (16:04).
  • Quote highlighting pervasive sponsorship:

    “I was hard pressed to find many popular sports media outlets that were not somehow in partnership with or taking sponsorship deals from gambling platforms.” (16:54, McKay Coppins)

4. Prediction Markets & the Gamification of Everything

• Platforms Like Polymarket and Kalshi:
  • Allow bets on “real world” questions—wars, politics, disasters, award shows—not just sports (21:02).
  • Function more like derivatives markets than casinos, making regulatory oversight difficult (22:00, 27:31).
• Concerns about Insider Trading:
  • High-profile example: A suspiciously timed bet netted $400k on Maduro’s capture in Venezuela (23:00).
  • Some platform proponents openly endorse insider trading to “increase predictive utility” (23:35).

“Insider trading is actually kind of built into the whole enterprise... There are several people involved in these predictive markets who will tell you point blank that they encourage insider trading because it increases the predictive utility.” (23:54, McKay Coppins)

• Loophole-ridden Regulation & Political Influence:
  • Investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket were quietly dropped after Trump’s return to office, with both platforms hiring Trump associates (28:46).

5. Regulatory Vacuum and Lack of Safeguards

• Congressional Inertia:
  • Rep. Paul Tonko tried to push for regulation, drawing parallels to tobacco, but found little interest among colleagues (31:22).

“He would talk to parents whose sons have gambled away their college tuition checks... but... he would kind of be met with blank stares.” (32:41, McKay Coppins)

• Comparisons with Other Vices:
  • Tonya Mosley likens the regulatory neglect to early days of alcohol and tobacco (33:35).
• Targeting Youth & Weak Age Restrictions:
  • Kids easily circumnavigate age checks, sometimes set up with parental assistance; young people show deep fluency in betting terms (35:53).
  • Alarming stories of children racking up debts without parents’ knowledge (36:22).

6. The Industry and Addiction

• Industry’s “Responsible Gaming” Claims:
  • Execs claim they don’t want problematic gamblers as customers, but economic realities—90% of revenue from 10% of users—say otherwise (38:19).

“If you actually took away the people who were gambling the most, the entire industry would collapse.” (39:33, McKay Coppins)

Personal Impact & Reflections

McKay Coppins’ Struggle to Stop

• Had difficulty stopping after the Super Bowl, almost bet on March Madness and the Oscars (40:46).
• Used Virginia’s “self-exclusion” form to block himself from betting platforms (42:09).

“Almost on impulse, I pulled up the self exclusion form in Virginia. I googled it, found it, and I quickly filled it out before I could talk myself out of it.” (41:37, McKay Coppins)

The Final Tally

• Started with $10,000; ended with only $109, losing $9,891 (42:53).

• Describes a “reality distorting effect” where gamblers believe more betting will solve their losses.

Ability to Enjoy Sports Now

• Now finds it difficult to enjoy viewing games or cultural events without thinking about the odds (44:01).

“It’s harder than I would like to admit... I was trying to get there [simply enjoying] with my son, but in the back of my mind, I was like, man, I wonder what the spread is on this game.” (44:03, McKay Coppins)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Nature of Modern Betting:
  “It is making everything more abstract. It’s turning all of American life into like a Las Vegas table game...” (22:38, McKay Coppins)
• On Conspiracy Thinking:
  “To gamble on sports in 2026 is to almost inevitably become a conspiracy theorist.” (18:00, McKay Coppins)
• On Industry Economics:
  “As much as 90% of the sportsbook’s revenue come from less than 10% of their users.” (39:26, McKay Coppins)
• On Addiction:
  “It almost doesn’t matter how much you lose. You convince yourself that the way to fix the problem is to gamble more.” (43:36, McKay Coppins)

Major Timestamps

• 02:36 — Coppins discusses entering gambling as a Mormon
• 07:37 — Nate Silver explains the odds: win a penny, you’re elite
• 09:27 — The exponential growth in betting volume
• 12:46 — Leagues’ sudden pivot toward gambling money
• 14:04 — FBI unveils new sports-related gambling scandals
• 18:00 — Coppins on how gambling warps thinking (conspiracy)
• 21:02 — Prediction markets and betting on world events
• 23:35 — Discussion of insider trading; platforms encourage it
• 28:46 — Lawsuits and regulatory evasion by prediction markets
• 31:22 — Congressional (non)response and lobbying
• 35:53 — Gambling by minors and weak controls
• 39:26 — Addictive behavior: reality that heavy gamblers fuel the economy
• 40:46 — Coppins describes trying to quit, self-exclusion
• 42:53 — Coppins’ final tally: loses nearly all his stake
• 44:01 — Struggling to return to watching sports without betting mindset

Conclusion

This episode offers a candid, wide-ranging investigation into America’s gambling boom and the industry’s deep, often troubling involvement in sports and public life. Coppins’ first-person reporting, industry interviews, and policy exploration reveal a world where virtually any event can become a wager—and where society is, perhaps unwittingly, stacking the deck against itself.