Fresh Air (NPR): “Trump's Options To Subvert The 2026 Midterms”
Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Tanya Mosley
Guest: David Graham (The Atlantic, author of “Donald Trump’s Plan to Subvert the Midterms is Already Underway”)
Episode Overview
This episode dives deep into the growing threats to American democracy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, focusing on how former President Donald Trump and his allies are laying groundwork to influence, disrupt, or outright subvert the electoral process. Tanya Mosley speaks with journalist David Graham about new voting restrictions, gerrymandering, legal maneuvers, changes in election administration, and the ever-shifting information landscape. Together, they scrutinize not only federal actions, but also the ripple effects at the state and local levels—especially concerning the integrity of the vote and the ongoing arms race around Congressional redistricting.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. 2025 Election Results and Early Warning Signs
- Democrats scored major victories at all levels, seen as a referendum on Trump (00:10–03:08).
- California’s Prop 50, allowing Democratic redistricting, previewed similar tactics for gaining or holding House seats in 2026.
- “The margins by which they won... is a sign of rejection of a lot of Trump’s priorities by voters.” — David Graham (03:08)
2. The Redistricting “Arms Race”
- Both parties, pressured by high stakes, are aggressively pursuing redistricting in states like Texas and California (04:59–06:23).
- GOP majority states (Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana) redrawing maps for advantage; Dems responding in kind, despite prior rejection of such tactics.
- “Trump makes everyone behave a little bit more like him.” — David Graham (05:22)
3. Election Security & DOJ Monitors
- Justice Department sending election monitors to new jurisdictions is both unusual and a dry run for 2026 (06:52–08:34).
- Concerns about “intimidation,” both overt and through normalization (i.e., voters seeing federal monitors as a threat).
4. Worst-Case Scenarios and The Maricopa Model
- Graham’s article opens with a hypothetical: “ICE agents at polling places, Marines seizing voting machines, martial law… everything laid out is possible, experts warned, and worth preparing for.” (08:34–10:00)
- Maricopa County, AZ, chosen for its political competitiveness and history of interference attempts.
5. The Reality for Election Officials and Poll Workers
- Intense harassment, threats, and personnel turnover—a result of recent cycles—have strained the system (10:00–11:41).
- Loss of experience and intimidation campaigns threaten the administrative backbone of American elections.
- “...volunteers... poorly paid... have become real targets for harassment... We’ve seen an exodus of experienced election officials.” — David Graham (10:16)
6. Partisan Incentives Undermining Integrity
- The case of Stephen Richer, former Maricopa County recorder, illustrates Republican officials losing primaries for defending election integrity (11:41–13:10).
- “...people like that are not going to run for the offices that oversee local elections if they know... they’ll become targets.” — David Graham (12:13)
7. The New Media & Information Landscape
- Post-2020, Fox News and mainstream outlets less willing to challenge false election narratives for fear of losing viewers or facing retribution (13:53–15:37).
- Trump’s pressure campaigns on media ownership, and diminished efforts by social media companies to stamp out disinformation.
- “...the whole ecosystem of information seems to have shifted pretty drastically since that 2020 election.” — David Graham (15:37)
8. Executive Overreach and Legal Ambiguity
- Trump has issued orders beyond his legal authority (e.g., requiring proof of citizenship to vote); courts have thus far blocked these, but the lack of immediate checks is worrisome (15:37–17:16).
- “In the absence of real legal authority, he’s simply saying these things and daring someone to tell him no.” — David Graham (16:07)
9. North Carolina as a Test Case (“Canary in the Coal Mine”)
- State legislature and Board of Elections has shifted power away from the Democratic governor; years of gerrymandering, legal wrangling, and attempts to disenfranchise voters (17:16–20:09).
- “We’ve seen a partisan takeover... All of these things affect the rules ahead of time. Then you get to Election Day, where you have potential vote suppression, you have claims of fraud...” — David Graham (17:25–19:11)
10. Militarization of Domestic Politics
- Deployment of federal troops in U.S. cities—normalized as a response to crime/immigration—is an escalation that could intimidate or suppress voters, especially those from immigrant communities (21:49–24:24).
- “...if people are already accustomed to that, it won’t be something new. And I think that’s a concern experts had.” — David Graham (22:05)
11. Gutting Election Security From Within
- The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) was stripped of resources, with Heather Honey (election conspiracy theorist) appointed as election integrity overseer at DHS (24:24–25:53).
12. The Courts: Final Line of Defense?
- Most election disputes are resolved in lower courts, but Supreme Court’s deference to executive power is concerning. Timeline for midterm litigation is uncertain, often post-election (25:53–27:30).
13. Fears of Democratic Backsliding and Emergency Powers
- Trump’s ambiguous statements about not “needing to vote again”—construed by scholars as dangerous, possibly a nod toward ending elections or making them meaningless (28:55–29:52).
- Broad and murky presidential emergency powers could be invoked to impede, delay, or invalidate results (30:35–31:35).
14. Election Tech and Local Power
- Pro-Trump actors buying voting machine companies, election deniers running and winning local election posts, and lobbying for more control (31:35–33:26).
15. A Third Term?
- Constitution prohibits it; scholars doubt legal loopholes, but worry about Trump attempting to run anyway and exploiting lack of enforcement or political will (33:26–35:46).
16. The Aftermath: If Democrats Win the House
- Scenarios where Republicans refuse to seat Democratic victors or the administration stonewalls oversight, creating a new, more aggressive dynamic (35:46–37:29).
17. Money’s Distorting Role
- Surge in billionaire and dark money, FEC dysfunction, and threats to small-donor platforms like ActBlue might further empower Trump and his allies (37:29–38:43).
18. How to Stay Grounded: Fact vs. Threat Assessment
- Graham relies on a close reading of the law, Trump’s statements/actions, expert analysis, and parallels from 2020 and 2024, noting: “...Often these things are foretold well ahead of time.” (39:03)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Redistricting and Arms Race:
“It feels like an arms race where both sides are trying to squeeze as many districts as they can… Trump makes everyone behave a little bit more like him.”
— David Graham (05:22) -
On Trump’s Hypothetical ‘Fixed’ Elections:
“You won’t have to vote anymore. My beautiful Christians. I love you... In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good you’re not gonna have to vote.”
— Donald Trump, Turning Point Action Summit (29:07); discussed at (29:52) -
On Risks to Election Officials:
“It’s amazing the way American elections work... They require volunteers... who have become real targets for harassment... We’ve seen an exodus of experienced election officials.”
— David Graham (10:16) -
On Executive Overreach:
“He’s simply saying these things and daring someone to tell him no.”
— David Graham (16:07) -
On Media’s Changed Role:
“The whole ecosystem of information seems to have shifted pretty drastically since that 2020 election.”
— David Graham (15:37) -
On Emergency Powers:
“What’s scary about emergency powers… is that they’re fairly broad, and a lot of them are unexplored... and the lack of clarity around how courts would react make that a scenario that a lot of experts are concerned about.”
— David Graham (30:46)
Important Segment Timestamps
- Opening & Election Results: 00:10–03:08
- California Prop 50 & Redistricting: 03:52–06:16
- DOJ Election Monitors: 06:52–08:34
- Made-Up Maricopa Scenario: 08:34–10:00
- Election Officials Under Threat: 10:00–11:41
- Republican Incentives & Stephen Richer: 11:41–13:10
- Media Changes & Disinfo: 13:53–15:37
- Trump’s Executive Actions: 15:37–17:16
- North Carolina as Test Case: 17:16–20:09
- Militarization of Elections: 21:49–24:24
- CISA & Heather Honey: 24:24–25:53
- Courts and Legal Outcomes: 25:53–27:30
- Trump’s ‘No More Elections’ Remark: 28:55–29:52
- Presidential Emergency Powers: 30:35–31:35
- Dominion & Local Movements: 31:35–33:26
- Third Term Fears: 33:26–35:46
- Post-Election Scenarios: 35:46–37:29
- Money in Politics: 37:29–38:43
- Staying Grounded: 39:03
Takeaways for Listeners
- The 2026 midterms are likely to see historic levels of interference and manipulation—by both legal and extralegal means.
- State-level and local threats—including manipulation of election administration, intimidation of workers, and disinformation—are as serious as federal ones.
- Former President Trump operates by norm-breaking and legal brinkmanship; many checks rely on officials’ integrity and institutional resilience.
- The stakes for American democracy have never been higher or more precarious.
David Graham: “Often these things are foretold well ahead of time.” (39:03)