Fresh Air: Will Israel and the U.S. Attacks on Iran Affect Tehran's Regime?
Release Date: June 24, 2025
Hosts: Terry Gross and Dave Davies
Guest: Karim Sajadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Introduction
In this intense episode of Fresh Air, host Dave Davies engages in a profound conversation with Karim Sajadpour, a seasoned Iran expert. The discussion delves into the recent escalations in the Middle East, specifically focusing on the joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and the subsequent ramifications for Tehran's regime.
Escalation of Hostilities: U.S. and Israel's Strikes on Iran
The episode opens with a brief overview of the unprecedented military actions taken by President Donald Trump and Israel against Iran. Davies outlines the gravity of the situation:
"President Donald Trump joined Israel's air campaign against Iran, dropping massive bunker-busting bombs on three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran responded with a missile attack on an American base in Qatar, which Trump deemed 'very weak' and stated he has no intention to retaliate."
[00:16]
Sajadpour reflects on the immediate impact of these strikes, emphasizing the profound anxiety permeating Iranian society:
"The population is living in a profound state of anxiety... the situation has led to hundreds of civilian casualties."
[04:40]
Iranian Society's Reaction and the Regime's Stability
Sajadpour paints a complex picture of Iranian society, highlighting a torn population grappling with patriotism juxtaposed with widespread discontent under the Islamic Republic:
"More than 80% of Iranians are deeply discontent with living under the Islamic Republic... the country is profoundly mismanaged economically."
[02:26]
He discusses how the initial targeted strikes against military commanders associated with repression were met with surprise but escalated into broader turmoil as urban warfare ensued.
Impact on Iran's Nuclear Program
A significant portion of the discussion centers on the effectiveness of the recent bombings on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Davies questions the extent of the damage:
"When you look at satellite photos, it is a huge area. The holes left by these missiles are relatively small. So it's just not exactly clear how much damage they've done."
[05:32]
Sajadpour elaborates on the ambiguity surrounding the depletion of Iran's highly enriched uranium:
"There’s a concern that the highly enriched uranium is unaccounted for... we will only know with hindsight several years from now."
[08:09]
Nature of Iran's Regime and Supreme Leader Khamenei
The conversation shifts to the authoritarian nature of Iran's leadership. Davies probes the role of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei:
"Is he in effect a dictator with the authority of, say, Muammar Gaddafi in his day?"
[08:09]
Sajadpour affirms Khamenei's dictatorial control, comparing his longevity and grip on power to other autocrats:
"Ayatollah Khamenei is arguably the longest-serving autocrat in the world... he has been ruling for 36 years."
[08:28]
He also touches upon Khamenei's health and the challenges he faces amidst escalating tensions:
"He’s 86 years old... operating in a state of paranoia about how penetrated his system is."
[10:19]
Iran-Israel Relations: An Unnatural Hostility
A critical analysis of the historical and ideological underpinnings of Iran-Israel animosity is presented. Davies questions the naturalness of their adversarial relationship:
"When you look at countries that have long-running hostilities like China and Taiwan, Iran and Israel, that really is not true, is it?"
[12:19]
Sajadpour explains the transformation post-1979 Islamic Revolution, emphasizing the ideological fervor driving Iran's stance against Israel:
"Ayatollah Khomeini... was far more obsessed with destroying Israel than building Iran."
[15:27]
He argues that this hostility is more ideological than geopolitical, serving as a unifying strategy for the regime:
"Waving the Palestine flag helps to transcend the Persian-Arab divide and the Sunni-Shia divide."
[13:13]
Prospects for the Iranian Regime: Empowerment or Demise?
The discussion navigates the potential outcomes of the current conflict on Tehran's stability. Davies references statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump encouraging Iranian uprisings:
"Netanyahu encouraged this... a light has been lit, carry it to freedom."
[31:14]
Sajadpour assesses the regime's vulnerability, labeling it a "zombie regime" struggling to maintain control amidst internal and external pressures:
"It's a dead ideology running on repression... the security apparatus remains highly armed, organized, and willing to kill en masse."
[34:33]
He highlights the challenges faced by Iranian society in uniting against the regime, despite widespread discontent.
Historical Context of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
Delving into the origins of Iran's nuclear program, Sajadpour traces its roots to the 1950s under the Shah's directive with U.S. assistance:
"It began during the time of the Shah... many Iranian students studied at MIT and played a pivotal role in building this nuclear program."
[20:42]
He critiques the program's economic and social costs, labeling it a "colossal failure" for the Iranian regime:
"The program barely provided about 1% of Iran's energy needs and didn't serve as a deterrent."
[23:43]
Regime Change and Democratic Prospects
Addressing the aftermath of authoritarian collapses globally, Sajadpour provides a sobering perspective on the likelihood of democratic transition in Iran:
"Since World War II, only about a quarter of authoritarian collapses have been followed by democratic government."
[39:39]
He expresses cautious optimism about Iran's potential for representative government but acknowledges the significant hurdles posed by entrenched coercive mechanisms:
"Iran has a society ripe for representative government... but authoritarian transitions are often not popularity contests."
[41:28]
Conclusion: Optimism Amidst Uncertainty
As the interview concludes, Sajadpour balances his analytical detachment with personal hope for Iran's future:
"I hope that some great leaders will emerge from within civil society... but I know that that's not guaranteed."
[41:48]
He emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Iranian populace while acknowledging the formidable challenges ahead.
Key Takeaways
- Complex Iranian Society: Despite high patriotism, there's significant discontent with the Islamic Republic's political and economic management.
- Ambiguous Impact on Nuclear Program: The effectiveness of recent strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities remains uncertain, with long-term consequences yet to unfold.
- Authoritarian Regime's Fragility: Supreme Leader Khamenei's aging leadership and the regime's oppressive apparatus are points of vulnerability.
- Ideological Hostility with Israel: Iran-Israel tensions are deeply rooted in ideological narratives rather than natural geopolitical rivalries.
- Prospects for Change: While there's widespread dissatisfaction, the path to democratic transition in Iran is fraught with challenges, mirroring historical patterns of authoritarian collapses.
Notable Quotes
-
Dave Davies: "Is he in effect a dictator with the authority of, say, Muammar Gaddafi in his day?"
[08:09] -
Karim Sajadpour: "More than 80% of Iranians are deeply discontent with living under the Islamic Republic."
[02:26] -
Karim Sajadpour: "It's a dead ideology running on repression... the security apparatus remains highly armed, organized, and willing to kill en masse."
[34:33] -
Karim Sajadpour: "Since World War II, only about a quarter of authoritarian collapses have been followed by democratic government."
[39:39]
This comprehensive discussion offers listeners a nuanced understanding of the current geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the internal dynamics of Tehran's regime, and the broader implications for the Middle East's future stability.