From Our Own Correspondent — “Ukraine’s Fading Hopes”

BBC Radio 4 | March 22, 2025 | Host: Kate Adie

Episode Overview

This episode traverses the globe’s shifting crises and hopes, from the sobering mood in Ukraine amid sputtering ceasefire talks, to mass protests in Serbia, anti-corruption challenges in Guatemala, innovative drought warning systems in Kenya, and the extradition of former Philippine President Duterte. The correspondents capture both the gravitas and everyday resilience from Kyiv’s galleries to Filipino cemeteries, threading personal stories with sharp political insights.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine: Diminishing Optimism Amid War Stalemate

(00:59–07:02) | Reporter: James Landale (Kyiv)

• Atmosphere & Mood:
  Landale reports from Saint Sophia’s Cathedral’s old bakery in Kyiv, recounting a Baroque concert for families of Ukraine’s war missing and fallen — a scene blending poignancy and resistance through art. Music, per violinist Hanna Balui, is “powerful art therapy,” especially for those with loved ones in captivity.

• Fragile Diplomacy:
  Diplomatic moves continue—Donald Trump called both Putin and Zelensky, but Russia refused a US-led 30-day ceasefire and instead demanded new talks around its "red lines". Even promises to pause attacks on Ukrainian energy were rapidly broken, fueling suspicion and fatigue.

• Internal Ukrainian Debate:
  A senior unnamed official, speaking off-record, is frank:

  “The biggest problem Ukraine faces, ...is not the loss of US military or moral support. It is the loss of the idea of victory.” (05:16)
  Even as Zelensky persists in his optimistic message, there's an erosion of belief—without more US assistance, "this conflict will not be resolved militarily". This prompts the existential “So what?” question: If victory is out of reach, is fighting still worth the enormous sacrifice?

• Doubt in Western Support:
  The official questions post-Trump Western allegiance, reflecting:

  “If Trump says democracy is bad, ...we can't explain our fight as a fight for democracy. Now we're just fighting for our freedom.” (05:56)

• Looking Ahead:
  The likely outcome is a “diplomatic grey zone,” reliant on uncertain support from Europe, with diminished unity and rising domestic dissatisfaction:

  “What if even [Zelensky] can’t promise his people a great victory or a just peace, but something messy in between?” (06:35)
  Themes of learning to “stand on our own two feet” close this segment.

2. Serbia: Street Protests & Accountability After Tragedy

(07:02–12:58) | Reporter: Guy Delaunay (Belgrade)

• Scene of Unrest:
  The “largest ever” protests in Belgrade erupted after the disastrous collapse of Novi Sad’s new railway station, killing 15 and symbolizing endemic corruption.

• Political Stakes:
  President Vucic, closely tied to the failed infrastructure, claims Serbia’s democracy is validated by peaceful police restraint, but blames some protesters for seeking “mayhem”.

  “I don’t give in to blackmail… I won’t allow the street to pave a horrible future for this country.” – President Aleksandar Vucic (09:00)

• Resilience & Demands of Protesters:
  The protests, led by students, are determined and vibrant—

  “The demonstrations are now into their fifth month and show no signs of diminishing. …The protest was more like a carnival… Shrill blasts of whistles and the drone of vuvuzelas were regularly punctuated with chants of Poompai.” (11:35)

  The movement’s call is for “full accountability and transparency”. Law student Jana Vesic summarizes their hope:

  “A country that works.” (12:08)

• Academic Perspective:
  Professor Miya Drag Jovanovic wryly notes:

  “They are asking for everything I’ve been lecturing about—the rule of law, respect for the constitution and the responsibility and accountability of public officials.” (12:35)

3. Guatemala: Anticorruption Hopes and Obstacles

(12:58–17:53) | Reporter: [Unnamed Correspondent]

• Corruption’s Deep Roots:
  Guatemala is described as controlled by the Pacto de Corruptos elite. Despite Bernardo Arevalo’s surprise win on an anticorruption ticket in 2023, there’s public impatience with slow reform.

• Popular Dissatisfaction:
  Citizens like Miguel lambast Arevalo as “too much of a politician. All talk and no action,” with some wishing for a strongman in the mold of El Salvador’s Bukele.

• Presidential Perspective:
  Arevalo is candid about being stymied by a minority in Congress and an opposition Attorney General (Consuelo Porras), who previously tried to block his presidency and now must legally investigate herself if accused.

  Arevalo on limitations:

  “Politics is the art of the possible, and one can only operate in the conditions that exist.” (15:22)

• Grassroots Optimism:
  Indigenous activist Ana Alicia Alvarado addressed Arevalo at his inauguration:

  “Senor President, I hope you appreciate all the effort this country made for you. Now you, as the government, must show us that our efforts were worth it.” (17:11)

  Despite years of corruption, there’s belief “the new government really does want to make things better,” but the window for change is narrow.

4. Kenya: Early Warning in a Changing Climate

(19:00–24:07) | Reporter: Peter Young (Kenya)

• Background:
  After consecutive failed rains (2020–22), hunger gripped over 30 million in the Horn of Africa. Climate change is now blamed for making such droughts 100 times more likely.

• Local Story:
  Theresa Kehinde, thriving while neighbors failed to harvest anything, was called a witch—a suspicion driven by her successful adoption of new drought-resilient methods guided by an early warning system.

  Kehinde on change:

  “We can’t continue to farm like we used to do.” (20:04)
  “Knowledge can transform farming.” (21:52)

• System in Action:
  Early warning combines meteorological data, radio, texts, and on-ground support. Accurate forecasts allow for practical adaptation—shifting crop timing, breeds, and farming techniques.

• Challenges:
  Dissemination is hampered by illiteracy, skepticism, and limited communication infrastructure. For the Maasai, traditional beliefs compete with new warnings.

  Maasai herder Ole Muato, after losing much livestock:

  “There was no grass, no water. That’s why they died.” (23:43)

5. Philippines: Duterte’s Extradition and Justice for Drug War Victims

(24:07–29:44) | Reporter: Tim Mansell (Manila)

• Historic Arrest:
  Former President Duterte is the first Asian ex-head of state sent to the Hague for crimes against humanity over his war on drugs.

• Human Perspective:
  Father Flavi Villanueva, once a troubled man, now a priest and crusader for victims, stood before Duterte in a Senate hearing:

  “No, …I was boiling with anger.” (26:16)

• Process of Truth:
  Father Flavi and pathologist Dr. Raquel Fortun labor to ensure that exhumed victims of extrajudicial killings are respectfully cremated and their true cause of death (not merely “heart failure”) is recorded.

  Dr. Fortun:

  “Evidence. …She wanted to find the real cause of death, not the one given on the death certificate.” (27:38)

• Systemic Denial, Growing Pressure:
  Authorities have long denied ICC involvement, but mounting evidence and activism have kept pressure high—culminating in Duterte’s extradition.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ukraine’s Future:

  “We are learning that we can’t trust America any more than we could ever trust Russia… We’re just going to have to learn to stand on our own two feet, rather, I think, like the musicians who play for the families of the lost.”
  (James Landale quoting a Ukrainian friend, 06:53)

• Serbia’s Protest Energy:

  “The demonstrations are now into their fifth month... more like a carnival… with chants of Poompai.”
  (Guy Delaunay, 11:35)

• Guatemala’s Cautious Patience:

  “If I want to initiate a case against her [Attorney General], I have to do it through her office. So she has to investigate herself, which is absolutely absurd.”
  (President Arevalo, 16:40)

• Kenya’s Quiet Transformation:

  “They said I was a witch, but it’s not true… We can’t continue to farm like we used to do.”
  (Theresa Kehinde, 20:04)

• The Philippines’ Unfinished Reckoning:

  “I was boiling with anger.”
  (Father Flavi, 26:16)
  “Sometimes… she’d pulled a bullet from the body bag or found the hole the bullet had made. This is the evidence she was after...”
  (On Dr. Fortun, 28:00)

Key Timestamps

• Ukraine’s Fading Hopes: 00:59–07:02
• Serbia Protests: 07:02–12:58
• Guatemala Anti-Corruption: 12:58–17:53
• Kenya Drought Early Warning: 19:00–24:07
• Philippines/Duterte Extradition: 24:07–29:44

Tone & Style

Faithful to the BBC’s measured but personal style: urgent yet reflective, mixing dry political facts with vivid, humane storytelling and on-the-ground color.