← Front Burner
Front Burner
A who’s who in Alberta’s separatist fight
00:31:31
<p>As Alberta hurtles towards a referendum on whether or not to hold a separation referendum, we wanted to take a look at how the campaigns on both sides are shaping up.</p><p><br></p><p>Who are the players? Are they cohesive? Organized? Charismatic?</p><p><br></p><p>Jason Markusoff, who covers Alberta politics for CBC, is here to walk us through it.</p><p><br></p><p>For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts</a></p>
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- [00:00]
A
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This is a CBC podcast.
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A
Hey, everyone, I'm Jamie Poisson. So we're working on an episode about the history of the 95 Quebec referendum, and you'll hear that soon. But one big takeaway from that for me has been that in the weeks leading up to the vote, the numbers really started to shift. The separatists started their campaign with 38%. They ended it just short of 50% of the vote. The lesson, I think, is campaigns matter. And as Alberta hurtles towards a vote on separation of its own, we wanted to take a look at how the campaigns on both sides leave and stay are shaping up. Who are the players? Are they cohesive, organized, charismatic? My friend and colleague Jason Markusoff out of Calgary is here to do that with me today. Jason. Hey.
- [01:35]
B
Hey. How you doing?
- [01:36]
A
I'm great, thanks. Thanks for being here. So let's start with the groups advocating for separation. Last October, I remember they had this big separatist rally in Edmonton, and a lot of the main players that we're going to go through today were on the steps of the legislature and they seemed to, I don't know, pretty united, at least outwardly.
- [01:56]
B
I am Alberta.
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A
A few thousand people waved royal blue Alberta flags Saturday in front of the legislature, declaring their province would be better off without Canada. The Alberta Prosperity Project organized this rally. A group that wants the referendum question. Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada now that we are in referendum mode? Would you say that that is still the case?
- [02:25]
B
You'd think that they were driving toward getting this question on the ballot. They had this big dream of doing this citizens initiative, and if you had more than 178,000 signatures, you could force the province of Alberta to have a separatist question to referendum. And they were hoping for it this fall. They kind of got that. It's a bit of a weird question that doesn't ask yes or no. It's should Alberta remain a province of Canada or. Or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada? So they're kind of there. Daniel Smith gave them sort of what they want and they're not on the same page right now. You have some groups who are advocating to kneecap the premier right now. They're not happy with this question. Others are taking the long view. The one thing I could think about to try to frame this, and it's interesting, you talk about the Quebec referee referendum. In this case, the politicians might be sort of peripheral to this because you know, the leader of Alberta, Danielle Smith, is taking a different side. So you do have all these like amalgam of other groups and like I don't know if there is one the separatist leader or one the federalist leader on this. So it is a confusing, interesting melange of different groups with different approaches and different arguments reaching out to different audiences.
- [03:50]
A
Yeah, if folks have heard of one separatist organization, they probably heard about the Alberta Prosperity Project. They were the driving force behind the referendum question that got shut down by the courts. And just what is the app? What are their goals?
- [04:04]
B
So they've been around for about five years. They predate a lot of this movement. Kind of when nobody was really talking about separatism, they were holding a bunch of town halls and church basement meetings trying to encourage people to think that separatism is a viable option and really Alberta's best opportunity to be strong on its own. The future could be incredibly brilliant if we come together for common cause and do something that has never been done before. That is the purpose of our project, to unite all Albertans, businesses and organizations to protect their interests, their individual freedoms and rights, your individual freedoms and rights, your prosperity and self determination by enabling Alberta to chart a new path forward. Jeff Rat, he's a lawyer for this group. A free and independent Alberta would be far more successful and far more wealthy and far more prosperous than, than an Alberta that would remain in Canada. And Mitch Sylvester, who's this Northeast Alberta retired gun store and sporting goods store owner who also is a big organizer within the United Conservative Party. You guys, none of this happens. So just understand how important you are and how important you're going to be moving forward. They were the ones who were really the driving force behind this petition. They collected what they say is 300,000 signatures. This process shows that Albertans are engaged and this is an issue people want to have a say on from all perspectives. There's been significant interest, discussion and participation demonstrating that this is a matter of province wide importance. It's been stymied by the courts who say there was a lack of duty to consult first nations before the government approved this whole Referendum initiative process. They're the group that's not happy with how Danielle Smith settled this. Do you want to stay or do you want to hold a vote? To hold a vote question. You know, Danielle was, she was a leader on the basis of people in the independence movement. She was elected premier by the independence movement. And then she does the bait and switch instead of the, you know, the Sovereign Alberta act act, it's the Sovereign Alberta within a United Canada Act. Right. And again, just stabbed everybody in the back because that's what she does. They haven't been holding their series of town halls lately. What they've been doing is quietly organizing to try to get enough movement to either force Danielle Smith to basically hold a leadership vote in review of her own leadership or to somehow change the question. And not every other group is supportive of this. They're kind of off on their own and they're going after the premier. This figure, Daniel Smith, who's given the separatists, caused so much energy, so much oxygen, trying to take her out at this point has frustrated quite a few of the other groups.
- [06:55]
A
And what are those groups? And just talk to me more about why they're frustrated.
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B
So let's start with Chris Scott and his group, which is let's talk Alberta. He's doing right now what the Alberta Prosperity Project used to do. Going to towns like Winfield, Westlock, Bar Head, all like dotting the countryside, going to small town community halls and church basements and agroplexes. You know, let's talk Alberta doesn't exist to tell you what to do or convince you or tell you what way to vote on things. We're here because we want to have conversations about the things that are important to Albertans. And right now we have some very important questions that are coming up that we're going to answer. Right. He's taking the long view on this. He, like many other separatists, they look at the polls, they realize that separatism only has like 20%, 30% support, maybe 35 at the highest at some level. So they need, no, they need to do a lot of convincing and they don't see it worthwhile or meritorious to go right at the premier right now. They want to go at the question, they want to build support for separatism. So he is basically trying to persuade people, he's making an effort with his other speakers from various walks of life to promote the idea of separatism and try to persuade the undecided. I don't want people to think of Alberta standing up for Themselves as leaving something, tearing something apart. This is an opportunity to grow up. It's an opportunity to build something for ourselves for the first time and to be leaders in doing so. I'm not sure how many undecided people are coming to his events. 100 here, 100 there. But he's kind of taking a more, if you can say a separatist, moderate approach, or at least pragmatic, patient approach with it. That's what he's doing.
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A
I know he has said before, Chris Scott, that he never actually wanted to leave Canada. His goal was to achieve a sovereign Alberta. And so for him, is this bid for a referendum more about getting leverage for negotiating with Ottawa more than anything else?
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B
Yeah, I was a bit confused because some of the times he talks about just the benefits of like, you know, if we had our own pension plan, if we had our own this, if we had our own that. And that sort of quote that you mentioned really speaks to the fact that there's no one idea of what separatism looks like. I mean, normally you have the government or some major political party kind of offering this cohesive vision about what separat can be for people. In this case with all these disparate groups, it's not that. So one group may see this is more of a leverage play, have their hooks on one little idea of what the reason to separate is. Others may take a different view. Other people may focus more on being able to control Alberta's own immigration or control border control gun rights. So different groups will take different stances. So it's almost like a buffet. I've heard people describe it as a separatist buffet. You can pick each, you know, everybody can pick something that, that's for them in this whole idea of separatism.
- [10:23]
A
What about Keith Wilson and Alberta Next or Alberta's Transition Council? Like, I understand that this guy is trying to put kind of a more intellectual face on, on this whole movement. Fair for me to say he's, he's
- [10:37]
B
a more moderate face. He's a lawyer himself. He's done work defending people in the convoy, which is a big kind of precursor of the Alberta separatist movement. He sees people like a whole bunch of lobbyist firms and political types on the other side, you know, providing this soft spoken, well put together case for federalism. And he's trying to do the same on the separatist side. We're entering into a new phase where we need to, I believe those of us who support independence, we need to do interviews on cbc. We need to Put together campaign materials, sophisticated websites, and make the information much more accessible to those who would currently vote no or those who aren't decided. He's promising this Alberta Transition Council, which is going to produce some kind of white paper on making the case, the financial, logistical, reasonable case for, for separatism. We haven't seen that yet, but he's, he's promising to, to provide that, that voice.
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A
And there's also this Centurion Project, right, which people also may have heard about. This is the group who made an app that exposed the personal information of 3,000,000 Albertans from the voter registry. As we've talked about on the show before, they, like, essentially doxxed Alberta people were not pleased about it. And just how influential is this group at the moment?
- [12:02]
B
I would say any influence they have seems to be past tense. I mean, this could have been a very potent organizing and recruiting tool. What their goal was is to get people to use this app to basically pull together all this information on who's a separatist and who's not. Like, find your 10 friends and get them to find their 10 friends who are persuadable or separatist. But this app's been shut down on court order after elections Alberta found that this list they were using, this app they were using for their outreach region data collection was a voter list that was provided somehow to the, this Centurion Project through the Republican Party of Alberta, one of the few small separatist parties we do have in the province. So the Republican of Alberta, which is kind of the most prominent party, is sidelined in this whole thing. While there's an RCMP Elections Alberta and Privacy Commissioner series of investigations, and the Centurion Project, run by this very charismatic, effective organizer, David Parker. They're both tweeting. Cam Davies and David Parker are, but we're not seeing their organizational heft going behind this project that they had hoped would help bring forward separatism. David Parker is in hot water with Elections Alberta. Not only did his separatist group, the Centurion Project, access and share the electors list, but now the agency says he's not obeying a cease and desist related to that data leak.
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A
And just like having them sidelined, what do you think the kind of impact of that could be on the campaign?
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B
A couple things have happened. One is that it's just fewer boats rowing in that direction, which is a problem. The other problem is that it seemed to give a lot of, in the public eye, all separatists a bad name because people, you know, will See shorthand separatist leader David Parker, separatist leader from behind the Centurion Project. So they'll think that all separatists are involved with them and they have kind of a bunch of cross pollinated connections between them all speaking at all the same, same rally in October, or, you know, being involved with other groups in the past, like Take Back Alberta that went at Jason Kenney or helped Danielle Smith get elected. And the other part of it is that it's kind of like turn separatists against each other. They were, they're frustrated. It creates this sense that there's maybe more of a Tower of Babel than a single leave cause, which, you know, the separatists have a lot of work to do if they want to win. They're to get from 25 or 30% to more than 50% for a clear majority is a big, big road. And for them to be so splintered and scrambling when there are only barely four months to go is a big challenge for these groups.
- [14:42]
A
Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has said the history of Alberta separatism is one of constant infighting. He said, like that's why dozens of separatist groups have come and gone over the past 50 years. Do you think that's fair?
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B
I mean, for most of Alberta's history, separatism has been an issue. It's been kind of on the back burner. It's been a fringe issue. I mean, in all the history of all these different parties that have come up, the separatist party, Wild Rose, Independence Party, Republican Party, Western Canada concept, they only have a history of electing one person in one by election in central Alberta, and that person lost badly in the following election. So for most of the time that Jason Kenney and others have been watching this, there's been no real energy or anything behind it, or no singular leader, singular movement behind it. Now that there's this energy directed toward a referendum, toward an actual purpose, it was sort of their time to shine. And you know, as I said, there's this Alphabet soup of different organizations trying to shine brightest.
- [15:49]
A
If you were going to try to take a stabilization at why they haven't been able to kind of coalesce. Like, why do you think it ultimately is? Is it the issue set? Is it that they, they haven't been able to find one leader that can bring them all together.
- [16:06]
B
There was one podcaster, Jason Levine, I listened to a fair bit in this separatist space, and he was comparing this to the convoy. It was also this kind of loosely Organized mass movement of people all settling in Ottawa or in Coutts, Alberta. But they had a whole bunch of different ideas, different drives. And this Jason Levine podcaster was talking about how they tried to organize, they tried to centralize, and it didn't work. They feel like it benefits them. They all have these, you know, disorganized. They're all kind of like contrarians who don't swim with the mainstream parties or sometimes do, but try to really change them. That centralization doesn't really serve their purposes. But I don't think there's. It would be a good effort to try and have one leader or one group or one message. I think the beauty of the grassroots effort is it's diverse. There's a lot of different conversations going on and there's a little bit of something for everybody. It's like an a la carte type of menu. You find what you like and consume it. Maybe, you know, in the future they, they will, but certainly right now they don't seem to want to centralize.
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A
Yeah, that was a really helpful point in trying to understand. I mean, certainly when I spent time at the convoy, you would like go up to the, you know, the fencing along Parliament Hill and it was just like a mood board of people's pet causes from vaccine to China to Trudeau himself.
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B
I mean, go to a separatist town hall and you might find the similar things that you'll find. You know, different people want you ask them, what is separatism? What does separate Alberta look like? They might prioritize different things. Some people may be more Christian nationalists. Some people may be more focused on immigrants. Some people maybe focus more on Covid.
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A
Okay, let's do the remain side, right? Because this is a campaign that we're starting to see shape up as well. And maybe we should start with the politicians who have historically played very important roles in separation campaigns and in Canada. You talked earlier about Quebec. You know, we have talked many times on the show about Danielle Smith and the ucp. We have talked about how polling shows that a majority of her party supporters are pro separatists. We've talked about how she has outwardly said that she wants Alberta to remain in Canada, but has been accused of flirting with separation by making it easier for the separatists to have a referendum, et cetera, et cetera. In my view, now is not the time to give up hope in our country, not when we have fought so hard for so long and come so far. I believe Canada can still work. I believe it's working better every day and it can work even better in the future if we keep fighting together for it as things ramp up. What role is the premier of the province currently playing in the campaign, would you say? Like, how would you define the current role that she's playing?
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B
It's a complex role because she knows that she has a lot of separatist organizers and people active within her party on her board of directors, within her constituents, not really her caucus or her cabinet, but in the movement that helped her get elected. There's a lot. So she has to walk a fine line. I don't think we're going to see her at the front of this movement. And it's not clear which of any other politician will be. You know, it's funny, this is a case where every major party leader you can think of is against separatism. Federal Conservative leader, the provincial ucp, Federal Liberal, Federal ndp, Provincial ndp. They're all in favor. But is anyone going to play the singular Captain Canada? Is anybody going to play Captain Canada? I mean, in some ways, the federalist side is as kind of eccentrically disorganized as the leave side, but for very different reasons.
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A
Yeah, well, let's go through some of them and then talk about what some of those reasons could be. I mean, just some of the political leaders. Obviously there's Naheen Nenshi, the leader of the ndp. What role could he play? I'm also thinking about pretty high profile politicians who are from Alberta. Stephen Harper, the former prime minister Jason Kenney, the former premier, like, what do you see any of these guys kind of coming out and becoming a real leader in this?
- [21:42]
B
When I hear people. Let's start with Ninji. When I hear people asking like who's going to play captain Canada? They all kind of look past Nenchi. Part of that might have to do with that. He doesn't seem to be very popular. His approval ratings are way below that of. Of Danielle Smith or even Mark Carney or Pollyv in Alberta. He hasn't really become this big figure that people thought the former Calgary mayor would. The other challenge is that he appeals to New Democrats and Alberta New Democrats are already fully anybody who supports the Democrats, almost none of them support separatism. So he's not going to necessarily appeal to Conserv. And it's the conservative side of Alberta that split. So there's a sense that you have to have conservatives speak to him. So Jason Kenney is really taking up the federalist flag and he's been part of one of these groups called Vote to stay with some other former federal conservatives. Stephen Harper is an interesting name. There have been reports that he is going to come forth in this in some case. But I feel like to various extents Kenny and Harper are people who will appeal to those who are persuadable on this issue. If there's any indecision on this, they'll be the ones or to rally people to make sure that they vote. Because one of the things that Kenny has been worrying about and others have been worrying about is that just there won't be a lot of motivation or enthusiasm on the Stay side to vote. That these are just a silly question. We shouldn't even be bothering as to this. But that is kind of how there are all these warnings that that's how Brexit happened. So let's not repeat that. So if people like Harper and Kenney can really motivate people to on the conservative side to like come out and vote for Alberta within Canada, that that has some potential.
- [23:29]
A
And so what role do we think that Poliev, Pierre Poliev, who's an MP now in Alberta and the prime minister, Mark Carney, who is also from Edmonton, could play here.
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B
So we're recording this Monday morning in Alberta. In a couple hours, Pierre Poliev, the conservative leader, is going to be in Calgary giving a speech to supporters about what he sees as he's talked about, I'm a federalist, I'm going to be campaigning for this and what he's going to say at this rally, according to some excerpts his party gave the media, is we need Alberta to band with other not to leave, but to band with other provinces to fight for change. The answer there for Albert, therefore, for Albertans is not to pull away from our friends in other provinces, but to lock arms with them to make Canada affordable, safe, self reliant and united here at home. Lock arms with all Canadians for an affordable federal government that allows an affordable life for Canadians. It's not surprising that the changes that he's advocating are the changes that he's been advocating for quite a while. A federal ban on oil tankers on the North B.C. coast, a repeal of various carbon and climate regulations and energy regulations, you know, rollback of gun regulations, which it's true, are some of the grievances that Danielle Smith and some separatists have advocated. What he seems to be doing is trying to adapt the separatist question and put it into the frame that he's been arguing all along. And there, you know, he is a fairly, you know, popular figure in Alberta. What's interesting, though, about some of the polls we've seen is that he's not the most popular federal politician in Alberta. That's Mark Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, but, you know, is a liberal. And liberal, you know, has long been a bad word among, certainly among Alberta conservatives. But he has quite a bit of public goodwill with some of the changes he's been making working toward pipeline repealing a lot of the regulations that Trudeau has put in. So there's a lot of expectation that he's going to become a prominent figure.
- [25:37]
A
Does he, do you see anything that Mark Carney has to be careful of? Does some of these comments that Poliev is making put him in a difficult position?
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B
I mean, he has to thread a bunch of needles. He has to, you know, make sure Alberta stays in Canada nationally. But he has to also make sure that he's not pushing his own caucus and his government so far that he's going to lose the goodwill of other provinces if he just, you know, they don't want the Liberals become the big target. They don't want this to become Alberta versus the federal Liberals. There's a lot of warnings out there that Federalist Laurentian elites, I have my air quotes on with that term, don't want to be too haughty, don't want to be dismissive of Alberta's grievances or frustrations that they come to make sure that while you criticize the separatist cause and make the case for Canada. You're not dismissing what the disaffection that has been created and has been stewing over these many, many years or decades to create this sentiment.
- [26:54]
A
Just like on the separation side, there are also these groups that have formed too. Right. I'll go through a couple of them. One is Forever Canada, founded by former Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszik, and they gathered more than 400,000 signatures for a pro Canada citizens initiative. There are these third party advertisers, Vote to Stay, which you mentioned. Jason Kenney is involved with Alberta's Voice, which is led by this political strategist, Stephen Carter, and is not just advocating over the separation question. He's pushing for Albertans to turn down all 10 questions.
- [27:26]
B
They are tragic questions that are putting our society at risk. And I think that we need to stand together, stand united, opposed to them. The New Democrats are already doing their project, which I wholeheartedly endorse and encourage, and Thomas Lukaszek's doing his, which I also wholeheartedly encourage and endorse. There's lots of, there's lots of space here to oppose these, these referendum questions.
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A
Tell me more about whether these groups are just as splintered as the separatists.
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B
I would imagine that much like Alberta Prosperity Project was the first one on the separatist side, and people didn't, for various positional reasons or personal reasons, they didn't all get behind that. I would imagine that it would have been nice neat if everybody got behind Forever Canada, the Thomas the Kazakh Project that had collected its own petition last year and had more than 400,000 signatures, way more than this separatist petition gathered this year and seemed to have a lot of energy behind it. A lot of activist supporters dominated the red. They're now putting thousands of lawn signs. Thomas Zakazak, the former deputy premier, has a unity bus, this bus he's touring around the province with and seems to have really got a big foothold. But although he was originally a progressive conservative, when he was in politics, he's kind of skewed, more progressive. So he's really not speaking to many conservatives right now. Or if he is, they're very on the moderate side of conservatives and he has a bit of a history with Jason Kenny. It's not surprising that they formed different organizations. But even Lacazek says on one hand it's good that they're going to speak to different audiences than we can. The other strategy behind having these different groups is as third party advertisers, as lobby groups, pressure groups. On this movement is elections. Alberta rules say that every third party advertiser can spend a maximum of $607,000. So if there's one group, and you know, the Monty Solberg lobbyist behind Vote to stay says $607,000 is not going to go very far when it comes to advertising. So if this group has 607, this group has 607, this group Has 607, that's a potential power.
- [29:40]
A
You know, the last group I'll just mention really quickly is lead, not leave. It's like a group of policy wonks and political activists and journalists. And they're not like going to register as party, but they're going to produce these white papers and try to lead dialogue. I guess it would be kind of the counter to what Keith Wilson is trying to do for the separatist side. Right? Education, kind of.
- [30:01]
B
Yeah. You have a lot of some former politicians, some prominent economists who are going to basically try to knock down a lot of the arguments that people make on separatism. If I can just mention two other groups that are going to be fighting this, organized labor is trying to claim, stake a claim in this. They're going to be fighting probably alongside the NDP on this. But the other group that's really going to be pushing hard in this is very vocal and has a very compelling case on this is First Nations. You know, their fight, their claims. You know that you can't do this without consulting first nations because you're going to sever the treaties that predate Alberta's creation in 1905. They are really arguing against this. How does Alberta expect to move forward, as they say, sovereign, when and when all of the resources and lands belong to the treaty people. When we say that, you know, we'll take a look at all avenues, that means stopping industry, that means maybe going out on the highways. That maybe means doing what we need to do to be heard. So they are really trying to assert their own voice on the remains. Get this whole referendum question out of there.
- [31:10]
A
Yeah. And I mean, of course the reason why Alberta's even having a referendum on a referendum is because first nations have successfully put a stop for the moment to the petition to just have a flat out referendum because the judge knocked it down. Jason, like I remember a while back, former Premier Jason Kenney, the other Jason, I guess, lamented that the Remain side hadn't gotten its act together. And just we've gone through a bunch of groups here on both sides and you're there, you know, what's your sense of which side currently has their act together. More going into this.
- [31:45]
B
I think, you know, it's early stages. I mean, on one hand, the remain side, you know, already has it, like, the support is still 70%. So they already have that in their favor. I think what their. Their challenge is going to be is making sure people are still plugged in, are patriotic, are fighting for Canada. Neither side is cohesive. We'll see what comes. Maybe there will be a Captain Canada or one, you know, one charismatic separatist voice breaking through the clatter. But what's interesting is that all the bold names, all the bold face names that you've heard of before, Kenny Carney, Harper, Danielle Smith, AD Ne, they're all on one side of it. So if, like, a Nigel Farage could, say, rise up on the other side, there could be some potency to the separatist cause.
- [32:37]
A
Yeah. I mean, I think it is fair to say they don't have an obvious leader right now. Jason, this was great. Super interesting. Thank you very much.
- [32:46]
B
My pleasure.
- [32:54]
A
All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.
- [33:10]
B
For more cbc podcasts, go to cbc ca podcasts.