Podcast Summary: "Alberta’s Very Interesting Year"

Front Burner | CBC | December 17, 2025
Host: Jamie Poisson | Guests: Kathleen Petty (host, West of Centre), Jason Markusoff (CBC writer/producer, Calgary)

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks Alberta’s tumultuous and headline-making year under Premier Danielle Smith, from international overtures and separatist rumblings to assertive legislative maneuvers and an evolving relationship with Ottawa. Jamie Poisson is joined by Kathleen Petty and Jason Markusoff to break down the dramatic shifts in Alberta politics, including Smith’s controversial meeting with Donald Trump, the rise of separatist sentiment, the use of the notwithstanding clause, recall campaigns, and a surprising new deal with the federal government.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alberta’s Unprecedented Political Turbulence

• Jason Markusoff (02:05): Highlights the outsized ambition of Premier Danielle Smith: "She just wants to change and do everything from the education system and the teacher strike to health care to organization oil production and pipelines and changing the deal with Ottawa and the prospect of breaking up the country scandals."
• Kathleen Petty (03:24): Notes Alberta’s “tumultuous and normal” political culture: “What looks on the outside to be tumultuous is actually just what we do in this province... And I'm sure Jason would agree it is hard to keep up with everything that's going on.”

2. Danielle Smith’s Trump Strategy and International Optics

• Recap of Smith’s two meetings at Mar-a-Lago with then-President-elect Trump, aiming to protect Alberta’s oil and gas interests.
• Kathleen Petty (04:53): “She was seen as being there to protect the main industry in this province, which is oil and gas... She wanted some kind of guarantee from Donald Trump that he still wanted to buy her oil, even though he repeatedly said he doesn't need anything from Canada.”
• The move drew fierce criticism within Canada, including accusations of partisanship and even being called a "traitor" by some unions (06:22).

3. Alberta’s Distinct Place in the U.S. Trade War

• Jason Markusoff (07:13): Contextualizes Alberta’s relatively insulated position during trade tensions: “We're kind of walking on sunshine and we're in this odd oasis of calm here in Alberta... Alberta has. We got nearly what we wanted on one level very quickly and there's been no need to rock the boat.”

4. The Notwithstanding Clause: A “Nuclear Option” in Governance

• Smith’s government invoked the clause four times in one year: once to end a teachers’ strike, three times related to new legislation impacting transgender youth.
• Jason Markusoff (09:13): “1, 2, 3, 4 notwithstanding clause applications all at once... That really touched nerve with a lot of people here in Alberta... She's lately come to say that, you know, there's parliamentary supremacy and we don't want courts or other people being gatekeepers for things.”
• Kathleen Petty (11:56): Explains public reactions tend to focus more on the issues themselves than on the abstract use of the clause: "I think they're more focused on the issues that they're being used with... you can relate to [the teacher’s strike] more than invocations of the notwithstanding clause with the transgender legislation."

5. Separatist Sentiment and the Prospect of Referendum

• Legislative changes in 2025 made it much easier to trigger a referendum on Alberta separation.
• Jason Markusoff (15:30): Smith’s new rules energized separatist actors: "Changing the referendum rules gave them a lot of excitement and a lot of energy."
• There is now the real possibility of a separation referendum in 2026 (17:00), but signature thresholds are high and success is uncertain.
• Kathleen Petty (17:11): “We could have none. We could have one, we could have two in 2026. It's hard to say.”
• The “Forever Canadian” counter-petition garnered strong support, suggesting significant public commitment to remaining part of Canada (18:36).

6. The Alberta-Ottawa “Grand Bargain”

• A major energy and emissions deal (MOU) signed with Ottawa, potentially paving the way for new pipelines.
• Smith sought to satisfy moderate Albertans with the deal, while recognizing it would never sway hardcore separatists.
• Kathleen Petty (19:59): “What I would say is the Harcourt separatists, they don't want the MoU... They don't care what party (the prime minister) is from.”
• Jason Markusoff (26:39): “Alberta gave some, but also Carney gave up a lot. Certainly lost a former Environment, Mr. Stephen Gilbe, in the process, which would have made Alberta and a lot of the energy executives quite happy as well.”

7. Pierre Poilievre, Daniel Smith, and Political Complications

• Poilievre praised Smith but publicly questioned the value of her MOU with Ottawa (23:09).
• Kathleen Petty (24:01): "I think the bigger impact is the other way around, honestly. I think Pierre Poliev to some degree has undermined Daniel Smith by basically saying that the MoU isn't worth the paper it's written on.”
• Jason Markusoff (25:32): “This actually showed some sincerity in Danielle Smith saying that she wants to see if Canada can work and wants to have a strong Alberta within united Canada because this would seem to strengthen Alberta's hand a lot.”

8. Recall Campaigns and Legislative Volatility

• Nearly half the UCP caucus and the premier face recall petitions due to amended (though still difficult) recall legislation.
• Kathleen Petty (28:23): "First of all, it seems pretty wild here, too. Just so you know, Jamie, it's not just you who thinks this is wild. We do, too. ...It's still a very high bar to get the number of signatures required to trigger a recall vote."
• Speculation that Smith could preempt recall efforts by calling an early election in 2026 (30:08).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jason Markusoff (02:05): “It’s been such an interesting year that I don’t think I can put meeting her, meeting Donald Trump, like anywhere in the top 20 of things…”
• Kathleen Petty (04:30): “You know, all the things he talked about, and then throw in new license plates and new insurance plans and dual practice for doctors… and, of course, you know, all the legislation around transgender people… 2025: Hold onto your hats for 2026.”
• Jason Markusoff (09:13): "1, 2, 3, 4 notwithstanding clause applications all at once."
• Kathleen Petty (11:56): “People, I think, relate to that more than the invocations of the notwithstanding clause with the transgender legislation... populations are relatively self interested.”
• Jamie Poisson (17:00): “Right. I mean, just to be clear, it's very possible that we will be watching Alberta vote on separation sometime in 2026.”
• Kathleen Petty (30:53): "Predict nothing for 2026. And expect everything."

Key Timestamps

• [02:05] – Jason discusses the scope of political events in Alberta
• [03:24] – Kathleen characterizes Alberta’s unique political climate
• [04:53-06:22] – Breakdown of Smith’s Trump strategy and reaction
• [07:13] – Alberta’s economic insulation in U.S.-Canada trade tensions
• [09:13] – Surge in use of the notwithstanding clause
• [15:30] – Easing the path to a separation referendum
• [17:00–18:36] – Discussion of public separatism and by-election insights
• [19:59] – The limits of what the energy MOU can do for separatist sentiment
• [23:09 and 24:01] – Interplay between Pierre Poilievre and Danielle Smith on federal-provincial relations
• [28:23] – Recall legislation and potential for early election in 2026
• [30:53] – Concluding thoughts: “Predict nothing for 2026. And expect everything.”

Final Thoughts

The episode offers a rapid-fire yet thorough tour of extraordinary political upheaval in Alberta, punctuated by Danielle Smith’s ambitious – and often contentious – leadership. From legislative brinkmanship to international overtures and rising separatist sentiment, the province’s future is more uncertain and intriguing than ever, setting up 2026 as a year to watch.