Canada's complicated 'situationship' with the U.S. (FB Exclusive)

Summary

Front Burner – Canada's Complicated 'Situationship' with the U.S.

Date: November 15, 2025
Host: Jayme Poisson
Panel: Paul Hunter, Katie Simpson, Will Lowry (CBC Washington correspondents)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the transformed Canada–U.S. relationship in the wake of Donald Trump’s reelection—one year on. The CBC Washington team reflects on escalating political tensions, trade disputes, and how Canada’s position has shifted from “closest ally” to a precarious, complicated ‘situationship.’ Personal anecdotes, sharp analysis, and insider stories from both sides of the border color a detailed discussion about the ties—and rifts—defining this vital international relationship.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Defining the “Situationship”: Where Things Stand

• Opening Analogy:
  • Paul Hunter poses, “What stage are we in? Still committed, taking a break, counseling?”
  • Will Lowry: “We're taking a break and trying to decide if our feelings are real…” (02:09)
  • Katie Simpson reframes: the U.S. and Canada are more like intertwined “cousins—no matter what, you can't pick your family.” (02:18)

2. Trump’s Approach and Impact

• Directness of Trump:
  • Trump’s comments: “Canada’s been ripping us off for a long time and they’re not going to rip us off anymore…” (Ray Winstone reading Trump, 02:55)
  • The hosts note Trump’s aggressive style, with policy often dictated impulsively.
  • Will Lowry: “Much of what he does, he tries on for affectation and sees how it plays… that’s how he dictates U.S. foreign policy…” (09:07)

3. The ‘51st State’ Incident at Mar-a-Lago

• Genesis of the Joke:
  • Katie details a secretive Trudeau–Trump dinner shortly after the reelection, where Trump quipped about Canada as the “51st state” with Trudeau in front of future cabinet members (06:00–07:00).
  • What began as a joke gained traction in Trump’s world, especially on social media and right-wing U.S. circles, but was received with offense in Canada.
• Canadian Reaction:
  • Canadian officials tried to downplay, but public sentiment was inflamed: “Even if it was meant as a joke, it gained momentum in Donald Trump’s world…” (07:04)
  • The story’s American coverage was minor, while it became a Canadian flashpoint.

4. Mismatched Perceptions Cross-Border

• Americans vs. Canadians:
  • Paul Hunter: “I’m not sure if Americans at large ever took it seriously... it was a joke from pretty much everybody I’ve talked to.”
  • Katie Simpson recounts a U.S. governor jokingly calling Canada his “favorite 51st state”—and her surprised reaction:
    • “When people in Canada hear this, they are not going to take it as a joke.” (10:55)

5. Roots of Economic Tension: Tariffs and Trade

• Tariff Threats and Negotiation Breakdowns:
  • Ontario aired an anti-tariff ad quoting Reagan, which initially pleased Trump, but criticism from the Reagan Foundation prompted him to abruptly cancel trade talks.
  • Will Lowry provides an insider account of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s surprise at the decision and the abruptness of Trump’s actions (18:08–19:48).
• Personal Attacks:
  • Katie shares a vivid Ottawa gala moment—U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra launching into an expletive-laden rant at Ontario’s trade rep, with specific ire towards Doug Ford (21:25).
  • “It was like a four-minute tirade of ‘F bomb this, F bomb that’—it’s an example of how volatile things are…” (21:54)

6. Trade Policy, Leverage, and the “Low Bar”

• Relevance and Limits of Canada’s Influence:
  • Paul Hunter: “Canada is just one of 200 files at the White House… doesn’t take up as much bandwidth as we’d want.” (25:55)
• Canadian Hopes:
  • “What Canada’s hoping for now… just to keep the exemptions for Kuzma-compliant goods for the next renegotiation… that’s a pretty low bar.” (25:10)
• Historical Perspective:
  • Will Lowry references the 1988 debate over free trade—Canada has always been wrestling with leverage as the smaller partner.

7. Shifting Patriotism and Public Sentiment

• Canadian Unity:
  • Paul Hunter: “Patriotism through the roof… the pride in all things Canadian is… remarkable.” (15:00)
  • Will Lowry notes: “In Quebec… I’ve never seen so many Canadian flags flying throughout the province.” (15:33)
  • Symbolic moments, like Canadians preferring non-American blueberries, cited as evidence of new economic awareness (15:33).

8. Looking Forward: Risks and Realities

• Upcoming Trade Renegotiation:
  • The mandatory 2026 review of the CUSMA (USMCA) agreement looms—Katie warns it may intensify current difficulties.
  • “It could intensify. That’s my concern going forward… dealing with all kinds of erratic trade policies that have a massive impact…” (31:03)
• The Best Case Now:
  • “The deal Canada will eventually get is going to be the least worst deal. It’s not going to be as good as it was before.” (29:47)
• Conclusion:
  • Despite everything, the U.S. market remains key: “The U.S. is a massive market full of people that love to spend money. That is a very powerful force…” (31:56)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Will Lowry:
  • “We're taking a break and trying to decide if our feelings are real…” (02:09)
• Katie Simpson:
  • “We're cousins and we're intertwined no matter what. You can't pick your family.” (02:18)
• Donald Trump (quoted):
  • “Canada’s been ripping us off for a long time and they’re not going to rip us off anymore…” (02:55)
• Paul Hunter:
  • “Much of what he does, he tries on for affectation and sees how it plays… that’s how he dictates U.S. foreign policy…” (09:07)
• Katie Simpson:
  • “Even if it was meant as a joke, it gained momentum in Donald Trump’s world…” (07:04)
  • “When people in Canada hear this, they are not going to take it as a joke.” (10:55)
• Will Lowry:
  • “Canada is just one of 200 files that the White House is running at the moment…” (25:55)
  • “The only other country that's doing it (standing up to U.S. tariffs) is China. You never want to be on the same island as China when it comes to trading practices…” (28:01)
• Paul Hunter:
  • “Patriotism through the roof… the pride in all things Canadian is… remarkable.” (15:00)
• Katie Simpson:
  • “If you had said this a year ago, that the goal is to keep the exemption amid all these other crazy tariffs, that is a pretty low bar.” (25:10)
• Paul Hunter:
  • “The U.S. is a massive market full of people that love to spend money. That is a very powerful force as these talks come to the fore, because it’s like everybody wants a piece of it.” (31:56)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:53 – Defining the “situationship” stage of Canada–U.S. relations
• 02:55 – Trump’s tough language on Canada
• 06:00–08:00 – The Mar-a-Lago dinner and origins of the ‘51st state’ joke
• 10:10 – Americans’ perception of the 51st-state rhetoric
• 15:00–16:00 – Canadian patriotism surge stories
• 18:08–20:28 – Reagan ad, collapse of trade talks, Marco Rubio’s reaction
• 21:54 – Ottawa gala and ambassador’s tirade against Ontario rep
• 24:11 – How trade relations have deteriorated, and Canada’s new “low bar” in negotiations
• 29:47 – “Least worst deal” for Canada, revisiting historic trade debates
• 31:03 – Anticipating the 2026 CUSMA review: risks and stakes for Canada

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Takeaways

• The Canada–U.S. relationship has grown more fraught, personal, and unpredictable in the Trump era, with policy volatility and hardening public attitudes on both sides.
• What may be treated as a joke or passing comment in U.S. circles often carries enormous emotional and political weight in Canada.
• Trade, tariffs, and economic leverage remain at the heart of tensions, with Canadian leaders forced to adjust expectations and priorities downward.
• Through all the turbulence, the closeness and interconnectedness of the two countries persists—perhaps redefined, but not severed.

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CBC’s Washington bureau closes by promising more coverage as this high-stakes ‘situationship’ continues to develop.

Transcript

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[Will Lowry]

This is a CBC podcast.

[Jamie]

Hey, everybody, it's Jamie. And if you are a regular front burner listener, you know that we spend a lot of time talking politics. And in the past year, u. S. President Donald Trump has been driving a lot of those conversations, particularly when it comes to Canada. It's now been just over 12 months since. Since Trump's reelection. Today, CBC's Washington correspondents Paul Hunter, Katie Simpson and Will Lowry are here with a look at the past year of U.S. canada relations and whether the country that's been known as our closest ally is even still a friend. We have that conversation for you now. Have a listen.

[Paul Hunter]

Are we all good kids?

[Will Lowry]

As good as we're gonna be?

[Paul Hunter]

That's a low bar.

[Katie Simpson]

I love low bar.

[Paul Hunter]

So if either of you, Katie, Willie, had to characterize the Canada U.S. relationship right now, what stage are we in? Are we. Are we still committed? Are we taking a break? Is it time for counseling?

[Will Lowry]

I don't think counseling would hurt at.

[Paul Hunter]

This point.

[Will Lowry]

But no, I think we're taking a break and trying to decide if our feelings are real at the moment and whether this is something we want to come back to.

[Katie Simpson]

I think we need to reframe this conversation, reframe the question. And it's gonna get a little weird, but, you know, I think we're cousins and we're intertwined no matter what. We are still in this together no matter what. And you can't sort of. You can't pick your family. You can't pick your family.

[Will Lowry]

You can't pick your family. But you can invite them to Christmas dinner or not. And do they get invited?

[Katie Simpson]

Exactly. And do they get a present? You know what?

[Will Lowry]

In some cases, no.

[Paul Hunter]

So that's our assessment, I guess, of course, for his part, little over two weeks ago in Air Force One, the president had this to say about Canada.

[Ray Winstone]

Canada's been ripping us off for a long time and they're not going to rip us off anymore. Canada has been ripping us off for a long time. One of the most difficult countries to deal with is with Canada. As much as I love Canada itself and the people of Canada, they've just had a lot of bad representatives. They did a fake ad yesterday. They were caught. The Ronald Reagan found was the one that caught him and it was totally the opposite of what they said. So I don't like that. That sturdy pool, you can't do that. And let me just tell you, they shouldn't have done it.

[Paul Hunter]

Never one to mince his words, Donald Trump. So after listening to that, I think it's pretty clear where relations are right now between Canada, the US at least from his perspective. But look, since Donald Trump's reelection last November, Canada's been on, you know, the proverbial roller coaster in its dealings with the United States. Here at the CBC's Washington bureau, we've been strapped in for the ride up close. But today we're going to take a bit of a step back and yeah, let's talk about the state of Canada's relationship with the US One year later status. It is, as they say, complicated. I'm Paul Hunter and I'm a senior correspondent for CBC News here in Washington.

[Katie Simpson]

I'm Katie Simpson and I am also a senior correspondent here in Washington.

[Will Lowry]

I'm Willy Lowery and I am not a senior correspondent, but I am a correspondent.

[Paul Hunter]

You're senior to us.

[Katie Simpson]

You know, if we take a step back to one year ago, we're coming up on Thanksgiving weekend here in the US and it is such a big, big holiday down here. It was this time last year when the Canada U.S. relationship really launched into this new phase and Donald Trump had won the election and he put out a post on social media threatening to impose new tariff on Canada and Mexico. And of course, there was a massive reaction in Canada. And little did we know that behind the scenes, officials in then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office, they had been sort of planting the seeds to try and get some one on one time with Donald Trump. And I'm having dinner with our wonderful colleague Jennifer Barr, who sort of leads us into the assignment charge here in the Washington bureau.

[Paul Hunter]

The great Jen Barr.

[Katie Simpson]

The great Jen Barr.

[Will Lowry]

Seconded.

[Katie Simpson]

And. And as we're having dinner on the Friday, Ottawa starts to get Word. There's buzz that the Prime Minister's plane is heading somewhere and it hadn't been on a schedule. And so we're all wondering what on earth is up. And so I start working the phones, my colleagues in Ottawa start working the phones, and we find out, yeah, Justin Trudeau is on his way with a high profile delegation to Mar a Lago. He's gonna be having dinner with Donald Trump. And this is where the whole sort of evolution of the 51st state threat really sort of comes to life. The dawn of it really had so many conversations with people on deep background, people who either were briefed on it or were there. And the way the scene is described is that Donald Trump is at this table with people who are going to be joining his cabinet. These high profile people like Howard Lutnick. Howard Lutnick was one of them.

[Paul Hunter]

Doug Bergam.

[Katie Simpson]

Yep, they are there and they're there with their wives and they're at this table and it's kind of quiet. And Donald Trump has his iPad and he can control the music at Mar a Lago with this iPad. And he's been fiddling around with it. And there's sort of small talk at the table. And it's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who sort of broaches the topic of the 25% tariff and whatever the exact language was. Donald Trump very clearly interpreted it as a moment of weakness. What we understand is that Trudeau said something along the lines of, you know, if you go ahead with this tariff, it's going to have a massive impact on the Canadian economy. Something to that effect. To which the response from Trump we have since heard was, well, you're a country. What do you mean you can't handle this little tariff, you know, if that's going to be the case. And then there was sort of people jumping in and jokes, saying, well, maybe you could be the 51st state, be the governor. And that's how it sort of started. And it started as a joke. And at first we didn't hear about this when we were talking to people who were there. It actually came out a week or so after the dinner. It was leaked to Fox News. And so Fox News reported it and it was got a little bit of attention in the United States, but it exploded in Canada with people trying to downplay it, saying, oh, no, he's just joking. It's not that big a deal. But the thing is, even if it was meant as a joke, it gained momentum in Donald Trump's world. He, you know, posted things on social Media, him standing on the top of a mountain, sort of looking over the Rocky Mountains. And he started talking about Canada in the same way he was talking about Greenland and how the United States needed to take control of Greenland.

[Paul Hunter]

Panama Canal.

[Katie Simpson]

Yeah, the Panama Canal. And all it was. He was talking about it in all those kinds of serious ways. Even if it did sort of evolve into where it is now, where people are sort of laughing about it, it was something that was so deeply offensive to Canadians and he wouldn't stop talking about it. And it was one of those things that just kept coming up and up and up and up. But it really, really started just about a year ago.

[Paul Hunter]

But when. So when did it become like an official position? Was it ever, like, when did it elevate itself in the White House?

[Katie Simpson]

I think that the Canadian reaction certainly elevated the concerns around it because Canadians viewed it as such a hostile statement. The time when the relationship, the personal relationship between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump was really at a low point. I remember we did story after story after story where the national and your world tonight, they would give me extra time in our actual files so we could just let these moments breathe because Canadians need to hear these things and they need to hear the full context of them. And then it sort of started to die down once the Canadian election kicked off. Does he still bring it up every once in a while? He certainly does, but it's not at the same sort of level that it had been.

[Will Lowry]

And Paul, you said, when did it become kind of official status at the White House? I don't know if it ever did.

[Paul Hunter]

That's kind of what I was implying.

[Will Lowry]

And I think that's one of the things with this presidency. So much of what he does, he tries on for affectation and sees how it plays. And his team is scrambling to say, wait, wait, wait, wait, is this real? Is this our policy? And that's pretty much how he dictates the US Foreign policy. Kind of wakes up, tries something on, likes the reaction he gets, and then his team scrambles to figure out the legality, figure out the reality of whatever he tweeted. And I'm not sure in most cases it is a tweet or a truth social kind of how it will play out.

[Paul Hunter]

And I'm not sure if Americans at large ever took it seriously. Every time we step outside the office, we talk to people, sometimes on deployments or for stories or sometimes just the restaurants or whatever. It was a joke, is my sense back from pretty much everybody I've talked to anywhere in a so called Republican part of the country or in a Democrat. And so I'm not sure that they took it seriously. I don't know what you guys heard.

[Katie Simpson]

Americans that I'd spoken with certainly did seem to take it as a joke and didn't understand the context and the reaction happening in Canada. I was here in D.C. and I was covering this conference with a whole bunch of different governors and a couple of Canadian premiers showed up. It was Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. And they were here to work the rooms to try to make the anti tariff argument. And we'd cornered the Democratic governor of Connecticut, a man named Ned Lamont, and he is very anti tariffs. He talked to us about how his economy depends very heavily on trade with Canada. It's a huge help with employment. And as I'm having this interview with him, he goes, I love Canada so much. It's my favorite 51st state. And when we do interviews, it's our job as journalists not to react. But when he said it, it caught me so off guard. I made a face and I was like, what? And he noticed. He goes, that's a joke. And I said, sir, when people in Canada hear this, they are not going to take it as a joke. And then he said, oh, well, leave that part out. And I'm like, no, when you tell me to leave a part out, that's the part that's going in.

[Will Lowry]

But I do think, part the MAGA movement, part of them, you know, their critique of the Democrats and of American politics is to tell everybody to take a breather, relax and, you know, poke fun at some of the words that people use. So I think a lot of the people within the movement think, ah, it's funny, it's a joke. Not that it actually means anything more than Trump kind of poking fun at a neighbor, not thinking about the repercussions that would have in our country.

[Paul Hunter]

Funny you should say that, Willie. If I was, if we were on camera right now, I'd wave these documents in front of me as a prop. It's Donald Trump's inaugural address from 2017.

[Katie Simpson]

Oh, okay.

[Paul Hunter]

Because other people will say, listen to his words, right? So I'm going to read from this. Americans want good jobs for themselves. These are the just and reasonable demands of a righteous public. But too many citizens are near rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation. The American carnage stops here and now. And he goes on to say, while other countries get rich, right? Our strength and confidence of our country, the US has disappeared over the horizon. One by one, factories are shuttered. From this moment on, it's going to be America first. This was 2017. Nobody should be surprised that he is trying to live up to those promises that he made to the tens of millions of people who voted for him. I take your point, cuz that is what a lot of the MAGA crowd will say, Willie. Right. Like he's just being Donald Trump. But these, these were his promises and he's living up to them. Canada, don't be surprised.

[Will Lowry]

And I think Canada should absolutely take what he says seriously in a way that perhaps, you know, the Americans, I mean, what he says matters and it's going to have a profound. It already is having a profound impact on our country and long lasting. And our economy is so intertwined that, you know, absolutely, Canadians need to take what he says seriously. And I think, you know, he really meant what he said there and he really believes that America needs to become, you know, he's an isolationist. Right. Like America needs to be able to be all, all of it. All of what it needs to be by itself, without others.

[Katie Simpson]

On that inaugural address that you referenced there, Paul, I believe it was reported at the time that after then Donald Trump delivered that speech that George W. Bush, the former president, reportedly said, that's some weird shit, man.

[Paul Hunter]

In fairness, there is a lot more in there. But you know, back to the relationship, right? And how has it changed? So that speech was obviously more than one year ago back in 2017, but Trump has, you know, been making those points ever since. And so the relationship between the two countries, we heard from Mark Carney that it has, the relationship is over. The US Is not a reliable partner. Does that mean, to your point, forever? No. But these changes in the relationship will take a long time to play out, to ever change back. We don't know. I mean, will we always be next door neighbors? Absolutely. To your analogy, Katie, about are we living in different parts of the house right now? We're cousins. Exactly.

[Will Lowry]

We can always be cousins. Just don't always like each other.

[Paul Hunter]

Meanwhile in Canada though, the flip side is holy cow, right? Patriotism through the roof. I sat down with Mike Myers this year and with his Canada's not for sale and elbows up business and like it caught him, he wasn't expecting that. It was kind of a spur of the moment decision for him. But that realization that everybody in Canada had at that time when these threats first started coming and the talk of tariffs for real happened was like, man, the flags that are flying in Canada is. I don't know if it's fair to call that a silver lining, but the, the pride in all things Canadian is. It's remarkable.

[Will Lowry]

And I would argue it's mostly it's pan Canada, you know, My family comes from Quebec, and this summer while home, I've never seen so many Canadian flags flying throughout the province. I was in a supermarket looking for blueberries. They were from the US And a woman next to me said, mexique. Like, those blueberries come from the US but these ones come from Mexico. Try these. That's not a situation that would have happened a year ago.

[Paul Hunter]

We have been hinting at trade and tariffs, and we absolutely need to talk specifically a bit more about them as well. But before I get your thoughts on that, I want to do a shout out to anyone listening today on Spotify. Here we all are, two blocks from the White House, but we'd love to hear what you think about it from wherever you're listening. So if you're so inclined, leave us a note in the comment section.

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[Ray Winstone]

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[Paul Hunter]

And that was the first time that.

[Ray Winstone]

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[Paul Hunter]

Going to come out of your head.

[Ray Winstone]

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[Paul Hunter]

Now, even if Trump's talk about Canada becoming the 51st state has gone on a little bit quieter lately, talk about tariffs on Canadian goods has not. Prime Minister Carney has been in talks with President Trump multiple times since he was elected, the most recent of those being in late October when it was reported they were making progress. Until they weren't. Willie, you were traveling overseas with the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, when the latest round of negotiations with Canada went off the rails.

[Will Lowry]

Yeah. So Ontario put out this ad using Reagan's words from a radio address he did in the late 1980s, I believe, basically talking about how detrimental tariffs can be to an economy. At first, Trump's initial reaction was actually quite positive. He referenced it in a speech, I believe, at the Rose Garden. I don't think there are any roses there anymore.

[Katie Simpson]

The cement garden.

[Will Lowry]

The cement garden Garden. Where he referenced the ad and said, if I was Canada, I would have done the same thing. Fast forward just a few days. The Reagan foundation put out a tweet, basically saying that Ontario took Reagan's words out of context and that they were looking for potential legal avenues to pursue to try and get the ad down. Trump latched onto that and used it as a reason to cancel trade talks and negotiations with Canada. That happened on a Friday night.

[Katie Simpson]

I believe it happened on a Thursday night because I had the audacity to go to bed.

[Will Lowry]

Yes.

[Katie Simpson]

I had gone to bed at like 10pm and the post came out around 10:45 and Dingle, Dingle, dingle, come on back to the office.

[Will Lowry]

That's right. So it's Thursday. I had just arrived in Jerusalem with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. I saw it as I was going to sleep at about midnight, 1 o'. Clock, woke up a few hours later. We were at press avail with Rubio and I was able to ask him what the US reaction was to this. Mr. Secretary, if I could ask you a question just a little closer to home. Yesterday, President Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada. Have you spoken with Foreign Minister Anand? What can Canada do to resume these.

[Paul Hunter]

Well, I think what happened is one of the leaders in Canada was running ads in the United States on trade, on tariffs that took President Reagan's words out of context. Even the Reagan foundation criticized him for it. But I have not spoken. I've been traveling since yesterday, but I have not spoken to the Foreign Minister since then.

[Will Lowry]

But I mean, and I think he is response really illustrated just the fact that this was a decision taken by Donald Trump without talking to any of his team.

[Paul Hunter]

He was surprised.

[Will Lowry]

He seemed surprised. He had to refer to the tweet. It didn't seem like he had real insider knowledge to what this would mean.

[Katie Simpson]

So there were a couple of things going on behind the scenes that I think also led to Donald Trump's anger in this moment. According to sources speaking with me, as well as some of my colleagues in Ottawa, the Trump administration, particularly those close to the president, had taken issue with the way Doug Ford does messaging, anti tariff messaging, particularly when he's in US Media. And apparently, according to sources, that has upset the team around the president, possibly the president himself. And that message was delivered to Canadian officials saying that Doug Ford is irking the people. So that sort of is sort of lingering underneath. And there was an incident that happened in Ottawa and we reported about it. My colleagues in Ottawa got the heads up about it first. But I've spoken with some, several sources who saw this. So picture this fancy gala in Ottawa, the Canadian American Business Council, all important people are there. The Canadian ambassador to the US is there. Dominic LeBlanc is leading trade talks, business leaders. There are some athletes there. It's a big to do in Ottawa. And at this event, there is Pete Hoekstra, who is the U.S. ambassador to Canada. He's sort of mingling in and around the crowd. Apparently he spots David Patterson, who is the trade rep for the province of Ontario. And according to multiple witnesses, Hoekstra approached Patterson and just sort of laid into him. I am told it was like a four minute tirade of F bomb this, F bomb that he specifically called out Doug Ford, F bomb Doug Ford. And it went on for four minutes or so I'm told David Patterson sort of just stood there. But it's another sort of example of how volatile things are. And in the world of Donald Trump, this is how people operate.

[Paul Hunter]

If I can just say.

[Will Lowry]

Yes, there.

[Paul Hunter]

Is another way of looking at all of this, the relationship and the tensions between the two. And that is from many on the US Side, it's like, well, well, yeah, like let's bring those jobs back here. Sort of like, you know, you ever see an athlete on some other team and you hate him because he's so good, but if he was on your team, you'd be cheering him on.

[Katie Simpson]

We're not gonna talk about the Dodgers.

[Paul Hunter]

We're gonna leave the Dodgers and jerseys. But there are many millions of Americans who will say, yeah, I applaud this and I do want those jobs. I'm willing to believe that the tariffs might bring some of those jobs back into this country. Am I willing to accept that? Maybe some prices will go up in the short term? Let's say I'm willing to accept that. I went to a Trump rally in April. It was pegged to Trump's 100 days in office. You know, if you're going to speak to people lined up to see a Trump rally, you know their political perspective. And people told me, yeah, I'm pro this. If prices go up for a while, if it, so be it. If it brings jobs back, I do.

[Katie Simpson]

Believe that the tariffs, yeah, it is going to be bumpy for a while, but we have to be patient. This mess has developed for a while, so it's not going to go away in 100.

[Paul Hunter]

Are you willing to pay higher prices in the short term to get that? In the long term?

[Katie Simpson]

Yes, I am.

[Jamie]

Maybe it's going to be a little.

[Katie Simpson]

Rough for us right now, but for my four grandkids and the generations after, I believe it will be good for them.

[Will Lowry]

And Michigan's an interesting place for that.

[Paul Hunter]

100%, very, very crucial state in the next election. In recent elections, we know the current trade talks have broken down on pause. Whatever you want to describe it as, what are the next steps we're looking for when it comes to that?

[Katie Simpson]

So the Canadians are hoping that the conversations will resume. But overall, things have not necessarily been great. You know, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was still in office, it was very clear that there was tension in the personal relationship between the leaders. The Canadians have been trying to sort of reset that with Mark Carney to recast it, saying, listen, we're hoping to have a more respectful, more positive tone. And, yeah, perhaps you can point to the Oval Office meetings and say, okay, you know, it certainly hasn't been as difficult as other meetings Donald Trump's had in the Oval Office. It certainly wasn't a Zelensky or anything like that. But what are the actual changes in trade policy? And guess what? There are more tariffs. There are higher tariffs. Initially, Canada was hoping to have some sort of broad trade and security agreement to see tariffs lifted so Canada could go back to that normal relationship. That hope faded after the summer when there was blow up after blow up. You know, Donald Trump canceling trade talks in the summer because he was mad about the digital services tax. You know, all of these kinds of things happened. And even though the tone might be slightly more respectful or broadly more respectful, there are still these tensions that are making life really difficult for Canadian workers and Canadian businesses and hope of this broad trade, security, economic deal, that's gone. They're just hoping right now, I'm told by multiple sources in Canada, they're hoping that they can just keep the exemptions that exist right now for those broad tariffs. The Kuzma compliant goods. If they can keep that in place heading into the renegotiation of Kuzma next year, they consider that a win. We started by talking about low bars. You know, if you had said this a year ago that the goal is to keep the exemption amid all of these other crazy tariffs, that is a pretty low bar.

[Will Lowry]

The Canadian, the Carnegie government would argue it's the best deal that any country in the world has at the moment. But I think one of the things that it's easy to lose sight of in Canada or it's so personal in Canada that it can be hard to accept or to realize that Canada is just one of 200 files that the White House is running at the moment. And it doesn't actually take up as much bandwidth, as much brain power within the White House as I think we would want it to. And, you know, this is the economic agenda that this administration has decided to pursue. We are not alone in facing the repercussions of that.

[Paul Hunter]

And I would just say quickly back to you mentioned the Oval meetings. You know, people who were in the room when Carney came down here, you and I were in the, in and around the White House that day.

[Katie Simpson]

For the first one. For the first one.

[Paul Hunter]

For the first. Yeah. That in the room when the door is closed, it is clear that Trump respects Carney and likes him and asks. And Trump is asking questions. And Carney is a former governor of the bank of England. Former governor of the bank of Canada. Right. That is a very different dynamic than what we see outside that room. And I don't know what to make of it, whether to think, well, that bodes well for Canada versus what you see in the things that Trump says and the actions that Trump takes outside. It's complicated to use that word again. Right. I think one of the things that people on the Canadian side have concluded is that Trump needs to win. Right. Or needs to be seen to win. The question is, is there a path where both countries can win, that Carney gets to say, here's what we got, that Trump gets to say, here's what I got. And that's the resolution.

[Katie Simpson]

Perhaps that's the pitch that Canada has made. It's that, listen, this is in your best self interest, this helps your economy, this helps you grow jobs, all of these tariffs hurt these American jobs and so forth. Far, you know, one year post election, it hasn't resonated in the way Canada had hoped. When Canada, Mexico and China, the three countries were first targets of Trump early this year, they sort of had the first wave of tariffs, two countries decide to retaliate. Canada and China. Mexico does not. And when Donald Trump launches his larger tariff program, where he starts targeting all kinds of American trading partners, the path that those trading partners pick is the same path that Mexico picked. Former people who worked in the Prime Minister's office are people who worked under Justin Trudeau. They view that as Canada sort of got left standing holding a bag, and while the rest of the world caved. That is their position. And that if other countries had taken the same position as Canada, that perhaps there would be some pushback and the American economy would be feeling more consequences, and it might help shape Donald Trump's decision making. But instead, Canada standing out there, and the only other country that's doing it is China. You never want to sort of be on the same island as China when it comes to trading practices, especially when dealing with the United States. And it just. It did not help Canada when the rest of the world decided to not take Canada's approach to it.

[Will Lowry]

That being said, I think Canada was definitely left out in the cold. But what has Mexico gotten?

[Katie Simpson]

Tariffs, Right, Exactly. No, everyone got it.

[Will Lowry]

So I think that's Oprah with the cars. Yeah.

[Katie Simpson]

You get a tariff.

[Will Lowry]

So I think that's one of the. You were talking about it earlier, Katie. The deal that Canada will eventually get is, like, gonna be the least worst deal.

[Katie Simpson]

That's a low worst deal.

[Will Lowry]

It's not gonna be as good as it was before. Exactly. And I think that's something that the country has to really grapple with. And I'm going to go back in time. 1988, there's this iconic debate between John Turner and Brian Mulroney during the 88 election. And essentially, Turner accused Mulroney of betraying the country for the signing what was the precursor of nafta.

[Paul Hunter]

The Free Trade Agreement.

[Will Lowry]

Free Trade Agreement, yeah.

[Paul Hunter]

Which evolved into nafta. Which evolved into cuzma.

[Will Lowry]

Exactly. Thank you. And essentially said, by ceding these grounds, we're losing any leverage as a country. And I think that's what Carney has to try and find ways to get back that leverage. But as we often say, we're a tenth of the size. How do you do that?

[Paul Hunter]

All that said, we are now approaching July 2026, at which point, Kuzma, USMCA, there's a mandatory review. So all these will come back to the fore in the coming months. We do have. So we've talked about the year past, the year ahead. What are we looking for from Donald Trump, Mark Carney, Canada, US Relationship.

[Katie Simpson]

I think that if we think the tariffs are really difficult now, that when that review starts, that it could, it could intensify. That is my concern going forward. I will say that when the renegotiation of NAFTA was taking place during the first Trump administration, one of the things that Canadians did not want was this review, this sunset clause, because they were so afraid it would create an environment where the trading relationship would depend on who is either in the prime minister's office or who is in the White House. And look where we are in the year 2025, approaching 2026, dealing with all kinds of erratic trade policies that have a massive impact on, you know, planning on bottom lines, on staffing, on everything.

[Will Lowry]

And those first rounds of negotiations were pretty tough from what I recall. I can only imagine this round is going to be even uglier.

[Paul Hunter]

But don't ever forget, I mean, the one thing, you know, the US Is a massive market full of people that love to spend money. And that is a very powerful force as these talks come to the fore, because it's like everybody wants a piece of it. That's why so many countries have been willing to make deals with Donald Trump.

[Will Lowry]

Well, that's it. That's why it can work to a certain extent, because the world wants it.

[Paul Hunter]

Yep. Okay. Whatever actually happens, we'll be here at the CBC Washington bureau, two blocks from the White House, keeping an eye on things from this side of the border for Canadians back home.

[Will Lowry]

Thanks, you two, thank you, thank you.

[Paul Hunter]

And thanks to the Front Burner Team for hosting these conversations. I'm going to suggest you follow them in your favorite podcast app as a way to return the favorite, because Big Tent, we'll talk to you soon.

[Will Lowry]

For more CBC Podcasts, go to CBC CA Podcasts.