
<p>As the Iran war wraps up its fifth week, the increasing price on fuel and food is wreaking havoc on consumers and businesses around the world. Global markets are also incredibly volatile.</p><p><br></p><p>Right now, the economic fallout is more pronounced in the Gulf, Asia, and Europe, but analysts say the shockwaves could soon be felt in North America.</p><p><br></p><p>Liz Hoffman is the business and finance editor at Semafor, and the host of their podcast, Compound Interest.</p><p><br></p><p>She talks to host Jayme Poisson about how close we are to a full blown global economic disaster.</p><p><br></p><p>For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts</a></p>
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Jamie Poisson
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Liz Hoffman
This is a CBC podcast.
Jamie Poisson
Hey everyone, I'm Jamie Poisson. So all week I kept seeing all of these economic predictions about the war on Iran as the price of oil continues to rise, that shockwaves are headed towards those of us who live in the west, that a Covid style economic disruption is coming, that everything from plastic wrap to air travel is in big trouble. So today I was hoping to try and figure out what's coming, what that could look like, and if anything would change should the Strait of Hormuz open back up like tomorrow. I'm going to talk this through with Liz Hoffman. She's the business and finance editor at Semaphore and the host of their podcast Compound Interest. Liz also reported for the Wall Street Journal for almost a decade. Liz, hi, how are you? It's good to have you on the show.
Liz Hoffman
Great to be here, Jamie.
Jamie Poisson
So there are many signs of strain across the global economy right now. What is the single biggest economic risk right now?
Liz Hoffman
I'm most worried about the second and third order effects of this. The first order effect is, as you said, oil got really expensive and is going to stay there. As you said, the prices had come down a little bit. The market did not like what it heard from the President last night.
Donald Trump
Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing and
Liz Hoffman
so they are back up. But that is sort of a quantifiable risk. We have less oil than we used to. The price is going to be higher. What you want to be worried about are the downstream effects of that. So that's refined oil products like gasoline, diesel. The US And I think Canada too is a trucking nation. Most things you buy got there onto the shelf via a truck and that service is about to get a lot more expensive. So those costs will be passed through refined products like fertilizer. You know, a huge percentage of the world's fertilizer is reliant on the Strait of Hormuz in one way or another. And, you know, that's one of those things where, you know, if you or I were going to take a vacation in a few weeks and it turns out jet fuel is more expensive, and so maybe we'll wait for this war to end when it finally does, and then we'll take it later. That's okay. That's demand replacement. You know, the GDP this year for the country will still be the same, but if you miss a growing season, farmers are going to miss growing seasons, which means that what comes out of the ground months from now is going to be smaller and less productive. And so you're talking about widespread food shortages, other refined products, we don't think about it, but helium, which is a huge input into a lot of medical imaging. I don't know how long you want to wait for your next mri, but. But those wait times are going to get longer as we end up. This is a supply shock. There is not enough of physical things that we need in the world right now because of this closure of this very small choke point in the Middle East.
Donald Trump
We're in great shape for the future. The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won't be taking any in the future. We don't need it. We haven't needed it and we don't need it. The countries of the world that do receive oil through the hormones strait must take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it. They can do it easily. We will.
Jamie Poisson
Let's talk a bit about how countries are responding to all of this. Starting In Asia, around 80% of the region's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That's an enormous amount. Many Asian countries also rely on LNG export shipped through the strait. And we're seeing fuel rationing across the continent. What are some examples of governments or just regular citizens trying to cut down on energy consumption that have stood out to you?
Liz Hoffman
Yeah. You've seen, you know, governments in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, you know, sending government employees home from work, you know, work from home for a couple of days, thinking that the energy, you know, grid will be under less strain of people working from their homes. That I think is less true in the West. But you. I have a lot of lights in my apartment, but certainly seems to be true in more emerging economies. You know, Governments are encouraging carpooling and cycling as they, they try to take some mass transit offline. I mean, these are real inputs into economies. And I think, you know, one thing that you have to worry about is the US will, you know, be fine. Our gasoline is more expensive. Same is true of Canada, which has a lot of its own energy. These prices are set globally, but, but these are, these are big global markets. And richer countries will simply be able to outbid and out compete poorer countries for fixed supply of things. You know, if and when the strait does start opening up, you're going to see this backlog of tankers. And these are, these are markets, these things are for sale every day and they go to the highest bidder, you know, absent some contract disputes here and there. So this is, you know, going to be one of those, as all sort of global catastrophes do it, it hits weakest nations the hardest.
Jamie Poisson
Which countries in your estimation are the closest to some kind of various, very serious rupture?
Liz Hoffman
Here, I think you really have to look at Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, parts of India. These are nations that are really reliant on imports to save energy. Sri Lanka has declared every Wednesday a public holiday. And Myanmar is limiting how often citizens can buy gasoline. In Bangladesh, the energy crisis has forced universities to close. Further east in Thailand, the government is begging workers to wear short sleeves and asking offices to turn down air conditioners in a bid to save power. President of the Philippines Fernand Marcos Jr. Has declared a state of national energy emergency in response to the Middle east conflict. Japan. You know, one thing you never want to be in a global crisis is an island. It is just like you are economically constrained and they import a lot, a lot of their energy. I think China is actually an interesting one. It is, it, it imports a lot of energy, but it is an export economy. Basically. Its factories make a lot more stuff than its domestic population, as big as it is, are able or willing to buy. And so, you know, it's, it's probably better off for the moment. But then if you look down the road and if you end up, you know, people are. The odds of a recess, of a global recession have, obviously, to state the obvious, have increased here. And that is really bad for economies like China that rely on foreign consumers to buy their stuff, because that stuff is going to be more expensive when you ship it, it's going to be more expensive when it gets to the store, and it's going to hit economies, you know, including in the west, where consumer demand is just going to be softer. People are going to feel poorer and they are going to be poorer in some real way. And you know, one real kind of emotional gut punch is stock market goes down, people feel poorer and they spend less money. So you have. At the moment, this is a supply shock, but it is going turn into a consumption and demand problem at some point. If the mood stays this bad.
Jamie Poisson
What does this tell you about how fragile the system is?
Liz Hoffman
You know, it's interesting, I think, you know, I wrote a column about this the other day. You know, when that, when the river. What's the right metaphor? When the light leaves the sun, it hits the earth like 10 minutes later. Right. There is a lag. And actually I think the global economy is living in that lag right now. We have all been, and I've been covering Wall street finance for 15 years and we've all been kind of lulled into this sense that sort of everything is priced in instantaneously. Remember high speed frequency trading and this idea that markets are super efficient? And that is sort of true in what I might call like financial markets. But physical things move slowly. The last oil that left the Gulf before the war hasn't arrived yet. It'll be in the us, In North America in the next week or so. It has already kind of petered out in Africa, where you're gonna see shortages really hit for reasons around sort of global sea trade routes. Australia's got a week more than the rest of us. It's come in there a little bit. But these things do move slowly. And so we are in like a little bit of a false lull, I think, where things don't feel quite as bad. But this is a cliff. This is an exponential supply shock, not a linear one.
Jamie Poisson
Right, Right. Just to quote you, if you don't mind, in your recent piece, this line was very clarifying for me. You wrote, the crisis will arrive slowly and then all at once.
Liz Hoffman
Yeah, I think, I mean, maybe just remember, take yourself back to March of 2020. It's a pretty interesting comparison, I think, because it's on the flip side of the economy. Here is this supply problem. Then it was a demand problem, which is that you have smart people, scientists who are doing the research, who are watching these epidemiological numbers come in and say, this virus is coming. Here are the numbers, here's what we think it's going to do. And I remember, I live in New York City, walking around thinking, should I get a manicure?
Jamie Poisson
All right?
Liz Hoffman
And then you shrug your shoulders and you walk in. And then within two weeks you can't believe you ever did that. You can't imagine that you'll ever do it again. And that was a demand shock, which is that people stopped buying things all at once. This is the flip side of that. This is a supply shock. The things that people want are, for the moment, still available. But I'm looking at this, this data, the shipping data, and these factories in Asia that are having to furlough people and turn off the lights for a day, a week or something, and you can just see the supply is going. And I think it's actually kind of a helpful analogy because it's pretty visceral. People pretty much remember what that felt like, that everything was normal until it wasn't. And we are sort of in the mirror image of that right now.
Jamie Poisson
You ended up writing a whole book on the fallout from the pandemic. Yeah. Do you see any important differences right now?
Liz Hoffman
I do, and not one that's gonna make your listeners feel any better, which is that the economic toll of the pandemic could have in arguably should have been a lot worse. And in fact, it wasn't. Because central banks and governments around the world just threw money at the problem. Right. Trillions of dollars in direct stimulus checks to consumers in additional unemployment insurance. In the US we had a program called the Paycheck Protection Program, which put millions of private sector workers on the federal government's payroll for some period of time. You can kind of financial engineer. You could paper your way through certain kinds of problems. It is much harder to do that with a supply shock. Like, literally, we've been sort of tricked into thinking that we live in a very digital and financial and kind of synthetic world. But this is a shortage of physical stuff that we need. There is no way to financial engineer yourself out of a growing season where there isn't enough nitrogen and there isn't enough fertilizer to get the yields that people expect. And so this is, you know, I think actually governments got pretty good from 2008, you know, then test it again in 2020 at pulling down that particular playbook. Like, what do you do when. When markets are freaking out, when liquidity is tight, and when you have a real demand shock, you have a recessionary problem, which may be where we end up. But in the meantime, you can't. No central bank can conjure oil. And that, I think, puts governments in a really tough spot. So to the extent you're looking for governments to step in here, I don't know exactly what they would do. You know, we have a Strategic energy reserve in the US And Canada has a lot of oil that can be put onto the market. But again, that's finite and on some level you're just, you're, you're pouring it into a hole. Hi, I'm Daryna, co founder of Quo. If you run a business, you know the team that responds first wins the customer. You've probably opened your phone to a bunch of missed calls and no voicemails. Those are missed opportunities. And exactly why we built Quo. Cuo is the business phone system that helps your team handle every call and text right away. Join over 90,000 businesses that win more customers with Quo. Try Quo for free@quo.com tech that's Q-U-O.com tech dressing. Dressing. Oh, French dressing. Exactly. Oh, that's good. I'm A.J. jacobs and that, that is a little taste of our award winning podcast, hello Puzzlers, where we solve original audio puzzles with our celebrity guests. Puzzle lovers like Ken Jennings, Dax Shepard and Roy Wood Jr. Are you looking for a daily dose of aha moments and laughs? Check us out at the hello Puzzlers podcast.
Jamie Poisson
You know, I just wonder if you could talk to me a little bit more about what Europe is facing here. This is its largest oil supply disruption in history. They are a lot less dependent on the Middle east for energy than Asia. But what's the impact that we're seeing across Europe?
Liz Hoffman
Yeah, less than Asia, but more than the West. And, and you know, they've already had their energy shock from, from Russia. Right. I mean if you go back to 2022, right. That's when Russia invaded Ukraine, you saw fuel prices in central and Eastern Europe just skyrocket. These were sort of pipelines that got sh is now scrambling to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. The price of gas was already high before the invasion. Now that Russian soldiers are in Ukraine, prices have spiked again. Natural gas now costs 10 times more than at the start of 2021. And so on some level maybe they have, they're slightly better prepared. But to step back, I mean, Europe just had economic problems for years. You know, 10, 15 years ago, the US and the Eurozone were roughly the same sized economies and they've just massively diverged. There's a real growth problem in Europe mostly driven by problems in its sort of industrial heartland, which is Germany. And they have tried to sort of grow their way out of it, but they, you know, they are sort of fundamentally fragmented. They don't have the kind of cross border connectivity you need to have like a truly regional economy. And they have real political problems. I think every, I think almost every government, you know, major government in Europe has collapsed at some point in the last two years. They have real polls from the populist. Right. And those are not going to get any quieter when there's lines for gas. Right. This is a, you know, a real politically dicey moment for a lot of the West. But, but Europe is just, it is pushing on an open door there.
Jamie Poisson
The chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is not just affecting fuel.
Liz Hoffman
Important components for fertilizer, essential for crops,
Jamie Poisson
are also being held up.
Liz Hoffman
It's driving up costs for farmers with
Jamie Poisson
some now questioning whether they can afford,
Liz Hoffman
afford to plant all their fields.
Jamie Poisson
If they don't, food shortages could hit Europe by September. I know you've been talking about North America kind of throughout this conversation, but I do wonder if you could expand on what you think the potential impacts could be or the worst case scenarios here.
Liz Hoffman
Yeah, look, Canada has a lot of energy. I think when you look at North America in particular, because I've been getting a lot of questions, well, if we're all energy independent, why is gas prices, why are gas prices so high? And the answer is that prices are set globally. Like the global oil market is one that Donald Trump is finding he actually cannot bully. We have a lot of it, we will have access to it. But a lot of the energy that's produced in North America is cooled and exported as LNG right from the Gulf of Mexico. A lot of it's refined domestically into other things, but the price is set globally. And so if you are looking for, well, wait, we have a lot of energy as Canada does too, that is not going to save you at the pump. Well, we'll see. You know, Canada I actually think has, is helped by, it has a very strong domestic investment economy. You have these, particularly these big pension funds that, that play a huge role in, in funding large portions of the economy. And you know, you have a Prime Minister who is actually sort of uniquely been a foil for Donald Trump. Mark Carney has shown like a bit of backbone and certainly a lot of flair in doing so. But, you know, look, global problems hit everyone and we talked earlier, they're going to hit weaker nations first. But no one is going to come out of this unscathed.
Jamie Poisson
Is there anyone who comes out of this stronger or, or better?
Liz Hoffman
You know, it's, it's a unifying moment. It's going to sound weird, but it is perhaps a unifying moment for the Gulf, you know, which has been attracting huge amounts of Western capital. So the bear case for the Gulf is that all of these sort of Wall street, you know, suits who came in over the last five or ten years really attracted by this oil money that the UAE and Saudi were throwing around and made these big investment dollars to spend, are going to say, oh wait, I forgot that this place has been violent and volatile for hundreds of years. Like, no, thank you. I do think there is a flip side, which is that the, the region has always kind of had these sort of internal rivalries and you're starting to see them coalesce. And so I think if the war ends fairly soon and Donald Trump last night put a vague kind of rolling three week clock on the whole thing, I do think this could be a clarifying moment for the Gulf, particularly if it ends with sort of more normalized relations with Israel and closer ties to the US We've not yet seen any of the Gulf militaries really join the action. But I think that this is sort of a generational moment, particularly for Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.
Jamie Poisson
And what about different industries, like who is quietly benefiting here?
Liz Hoffman
The winner for the moment is like, is companies who make electric vehicles. We've seen sales spike and interest from car buyers in electric vehicles. So that's one. And that probably ultimately benefits China, which makes the best and the cheapest EVs, even though they are actually, we're quite jealous of you. Apparently they're available in Canada, coming soon to Canada, but still excluded from the US market.
Jamie Poisson
Not many though. Still, I think we're pretty jealous of Mexico and many countries in Europe.
Liz Hoffman
But fair, fair more than you for sure. Yeah. And I feel like some Americans are going to be in Toronto in a BYD robo taxi being like, wait, why don't we have these? These are great. So, you know, it probably benefits companies in the renewable supply chain, which ultimately is good for China, could have been good for the U.S. had we not pivoted away from that over the last year or two. There was a moment where, you know, building a really strong domestic renewable supply chain here and for political reasons that has kind of gone by the wayside. So anything that doesn't touch oil, I
Jamie Poisson
guess
Liz Hoffman
is benefited here. But you have to remember that it almost doesn't matter because, you know, what's really bad for everyone is a recession. Like it solves inflation, it gets prices down because no one's buying anything. But it is, it is bad for everyone. And I would struggle to see like a relative winner in all of this.
Jamie Poisson
I know you mentioned that kind of vague three week timeline from Trump. And just what are going to be the lingering consequences there? Can things go back to the status quo?
Liz Hoffman
This is not as simple as turning a spigot back on and having the water come out. These are really big, heavy things that are stuck in weird places with their anchors in places they don't want to be like this. Just there is a real lag to this and you're talking about months also we're saying some energy and oil infrastructure in the region has been damaged. That takes real time to fix and you can't get crews out to fix it until missiles stop flying. Again, these are logistical, physical delays. But we also, you know, look, I'm not a political reporter. I've got colleagues who cover the White House closely. But you know what? They're puzzled by the fact that we still don't really know what the objectives are here. And what is the bright line for the US to declare victory. There was some reporting I think earlier this week that Trump could declare victory without the strait being reopened. And then there was some backpedaling on that. And now he's telling Europe to just go in and take the oil as if that were feasible. But without clear objectives for what we're trying to accomplish here. I really struggle to see a situation in which the strait reopens anytime soon. And that's to say nothing of what the Iranians actually want. I mean that is a regime that is in turmoil and we'll see sort of where the hard line ends for them. It is hurting their economy, but there's also a world in which they just charge people a lot of money to get through the strait and they've relax some sanctions on other things. Right. They may actually be making money on all of this as their, you know, leadership is decapitated in their, in their economy withers.
Jamie Poisson
Yeah. If they did start charging to go through the strait, like what would be the kind of economic domino effect of
Liz Hoffman
that it would benefit countries that can pay. I mean ultimately that's, that's what it is. And that's what I'm saying that, that you know, these big seismic events tend to exacerbate inequality. You see that the global level, which is that the US Came out of COVID much better than, than other countries economically in part because we just have like a much more kind of dynamic economy. We've, we like to take risk more. So when things are bad we kind of pile back in before and so we, we bounce back faster. But we also have the money to do it and that's. That's going to be the same thing that happens here.
Jamie Poisson
Okay. That feels like a good place for us to end it. Liz, thank you. You so much for this. Thank you.
Liz Hoffman
Thank you for having me.
Jamie Poisson
All right, that is all for today. Front Burner was produced this week by Matthew Amha, Joytha Shankupta, Shannon Higgins, Kevin Sexton, and MacKenzie Cameron. Our YouTube producer is John Lee. Our music is by Joseph Shabasin. Our senior producers are Elaine Chow and Imogen Burchard. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe. Blocos, thanks so much for listening. Talk to you all next week.
Liz Hoffman
For more cbc podcasts, go to cbc ca podcasts.
CBC | Host: Jamie Poisson | Guest: Liz Hoffman (Business & Finance Editor, Semaphore)
Date: April 3, 2026
This episode explores the economic fallout from the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, focusing on skyrocketing oil prices, cascading supply shocks across commodities and sectors, and what it could mean globally and specifically for Canada. Host Jamie Poisson is joined by financial journalist Liz Hoffman, who provides context for the current volatility, draws parallels to past disruptions such as COVID-19, and assesses which nations and industries are most vulnerable—or opportunistic—in the current climate.
“We have less oil than we used to. The price is going to be higher. What you want to be worried about are the downstream effects.” – Liz Hoffman (01:45)
"This is a supply shock. There is not enough of physical things that we need in the world right now because of this closure of this very small choke point in the Middle East." – Liz Hoffman (03:11)
“Government employees sent home from work…energy grid will be under less strain...carpooling and cycling as they try to take some mass transit offline.” – Liz Hoffman (04:36)
"This is, you know, going to be one of those, as all sort of global catastrophes do, it hits weakest nations the hardest." – Liz Hoffman (05:28)
“Europe just had economic problems for years...they are sort of fundamentally fragmented...They have real political problems.” – Liz Hoffman (14:33)
"We've all been kind of lulled into this sense that sort of everything is priced in instantaneously...But physical things move slowly." – Liz Hoffman (08:06)
"The crisis will arrive slowly and then all at once." – Liz Hoffman, quoted by Jamie Poisson (09:24)
"No central bank can conjure oil...This is a shortage of physical stuff that we need." – Liz Hoffman (11:25)
"If we’re all energy independent, why are gas prices so high?…prices are set globally. The global oil market is one that Donald Trump is finding he actually cannot bully." – Liz Hoffman (16:15)
"If they [farmers] don't, food shortages could hit Europe by September." – Jamie Poisson (15:59)
"The winner for the moment is...companies who make electric vehicles. We've seen sales spike and interest from car buyers..." – Liz Hoffman (19:08)
“This is not as simple as turning a spigot back on...there is a real lag to this and you’re talking about months.” – Liz Hoffman (21:02)
"These big seismic events tend to exacerbate inequality...the US came out of COVID much better than other countries economically..." – Liz Hoffman (22:40)
"The global oil market is one that Donald Trump is finding he actually cannot bully." – Liz Hoffman (16:31)
“Everything was normal until it wasn’t. And we are sort of in the mirror image of that right now.” – Liz Hoffman (10:45)
“No central bank can conjure oil. And that, I think, puts governments in a really tough spot.” – Liz Hoffman (11:25)
Liz Hoffman and Jamie Poisson’s conversation delivers a sobering assessment of the global economy’s fragility in the face of a major supply shock rooted in geopolitical instability. They stress that while the price of oil is the headline story, cascading disruptions will soon ripple through food, medical care, travel, and more—potentially transforming a supply shock into a broad-based consumption and demand crisis. No nation will be untouched, but the poorest will be hurt first and most, and no amount of central-bank intervention can conjure physical goods. Although a few actors—like Gulf powers and parts of the renewable supply chain—may briefly benefit, the overarching outlook is one of heightened instability, rising global inequality, and political risk.