Hanukkah event shooting // Liberal majority watch

Summary

Podcast Summary: Front Burner (CBC)

Episode: Hanukkah event shooting // Liberal majority watch
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guests: Shawn Tarek Goodwin (ABC News Australia), Aaron Wary (CBC Ottawa Bureau)

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Main Theme

This episode opens with in-depth coverage of the mass shooting at a Hanukkah event in Sydney, Australia, exploring the scene, community impact, and the broader context of antisemitism. The second half pivots to breaking Canadian political news: the Liberals inching closer to a majority thanks to another Conservative floor-crossing, and the broader turmoil within the Conservative Party. The episode moves between real-time reporting, political analysis, and personal stories, offering a multifaceted look at both tragedy and political upheaval.

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Part 1: Hanukkah Event Shooting in Sydney, Australia

The Attack Unfolds

[00:36–02:00]

• Quote: “This was an attack deliberately targeted at the Jewish community on the first day of Hanukkah, which of course should be a joyous celebration. And the Jewish community are hurting today. Today, all Australians wrap our arms around them and say, we stand with you.”
  —Australian PM Anthony Albanese (as cited by Jayme Poisson)
• Incident Details:
  • Shooting occurred at Bondi beach during the first day of Hanukkah.
  • 15 people dead (later rising to 16), including a child, Holocaust survivor, and a rabbi.
  • Two gunmen—father (50) and son (24)—one killed by police, the other hospitalized.
  • Seemingly planned with the father as a licensed gun owner (possessing six firearms).

On the Scene: Eyewitness Reporting

[03:22–04:53]

• Shawn Tarek Goodwin was among the first reporters on the scene.
• Describes chaos: “People...running up from the beach with tears in their eyes warning people, there's a shooting, don't go to the beach, turn away.”
• “A sea of flashing lights...ambulance and police units were there trying to move people on, trying to provide assistance.”

Casualties and Investigation

[05:04–05:50]

• 42 people hospitalized, many in critical condition.
• Third-shooter rumors were dispelled; an explosive device found nearby was neutralized.
• Police confirm the suspect’s prior minor connection to intelligence agencies.

Heroism Amid Tragedy

[07:44–08:56]

• A civilian tackled a gunman, disarmed him, and is hailed as a hero by national leaders.
• Quote: “If he hadn’t done that, we’d be dealing with more victims and more fatalities.”
  —Shawn Tarek Goodwin, relaying the praise from PM and Premier

Victims and Community Impact

[08:56–10:29]

• Notable victims: a 10-year-old girl, Rabbi Eli Schlanger.
• The Jewish community grieves; comparison drawn to Port Arthur (previous largest mass shooting).
• “[Jewish] leaders...talking about the complete disbelief among them and the fear...immense mourning.”

Rising Antisemitism and the Road Here

[10:29–12:16]

• Recent rise in antisemitic threats and attacks in Australia: graffiti, synagogue attacks, slurs, arson.
• “The fears...was that this ends with violence. The absolute tragedy is that a very extreme example of that violence has unfolded in Sydney.”

[12:42]

• Canadian PM Mark Carney expresses solidarity:
  • Quote: “The government will always stand with you. It is not enough to protect the Jewish community. ...This is about taking the light and spreading it today...so that this is the last generation that has to struggle against hate.”
    —Mark Carney ([12:42])

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Part 2: Liberal Majority Watch in Canadian Politics

The Floor-Crossing That Changed Everything

[14:30–15:45]

• Conservative MP Michael Ma (Markham–Unionville) defects to the Liberals, almost giving them a majority.
• Quote from Ma’s announcement:
  • “Prime Minister Mark Carney is offering the steady, practical approach we need to deliver on the priorities... I entered public service to help people, to focus on solutions, not division.”
    —Michael Ma (read by Jayme Poisson [15:11])

Political Fallout and Revelations

[15:45–18:43]

• Move came as a shock amid rumors that had previously died down.
• Michael Ma attended both the Conservative and Liberal Christmas parties on consecutive nights.
• Secret Santa anecdote: Conservative MP feels snubbed after Ma didn’t deliver his gift, raising both laughter and a sense of betrayal.
  • Quote: “I did inquire as to who was supposed to be my Secret Santa and it turns out it was Michael Ma and I did not get a gift. So just noted for the record.”
    —Conservative MP ([18:01])

The Broader Political Shift

[19:16–21:10]

• A year prior, the Liberals were in disarray after Chrystia Freeland’s dramatic resignation letter and Trudeau’s beleaguered leadership.
• Now, the Liberals are close to a majority and the Conservatives face internal cracks and high-profile resignations.

Conservative Party in Crisis

[22:00–26:40]

• Recent MP defections (Chris Doncherman, Matt Gennarou, Michael Ma) have weakened Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
• Floor crossing seen as damaging to Poilievre, raising questions about his leadership with a review looming.
• Quote: “Potential disaster looms for Pierre Poilievre. It's hard to see this as anything other than a real setback for him...”
  —Aaron Wary ([22:00])
• Poilievre and allies respond by accusing Liberals of “backroom deals” and argue that only an election should deliver a majority.
  • Quote: “He is trying to manipulate his way through backroom deals to get that majority.”
    —Pierre Poilievre ([25:17])

Public and Political Response

[25:02–27:08]

• Debates about the legitimacy of floor crossing.
• Poilievre reluctant to publicly reflect on leadership, holding his line despite party fractures.
• Discussion over timing and strategy for any possible leadership challenge within the Conservatives.

Evaluating the Carney Government’s First Six Months

[28:59–31:18]

• Major policy accomplishments:

  • Passing the major projects bill (C-5)
  • Big budget with housing, infrastructure, and military funding
  • MOU with Alberta on environmental laws, carbon capture, and pipeline with Indigenous co-ownership

• Struggles:

  • Canadian-US trade war backdrop, suspended trade talks, criticism over lack of a deal, and digital services tax fallout.
  • Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman stepping down, likely to be replaced by Carney ally Mark Wiseman.

Legislative Challenges and The Near-Majority Advantage

[33:35–36:32]

• The government struggles to get justice and criminal code reforms through the House due to minority status and friction with opposition.

• Notable issues tied up: bail reform, hate crime legislation, mandatory minimums.

• Quote: “If you can’t find a confidence and supply partner, you can sort of make one yourself by just getting a few more [MPs].”
  —Aaron Wary ([36:13])

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Reflections on a “Remarkable” Year in Canadian Politics

[37:10–39:06]

• Aaron Wary frames 2025 as perhaps the most extraordinary year in modern Canadian political history.
• Major external influence: Donald Trump’s return to power and the cascade of repercussions for Canadian politics.
• Takeaway: Political landscapes can change rapidly and unpredictably—“trying to predict political futures is silly.”

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• [00:36] Shawn Tarek Goodwin:
  “This was an attack deliberately targeted at the Jewish community on the first day of Hanukkah.”

• [03:32] Shawn Tarek Goodwin:
  “Arriving down to a massive group of people, a large number of civilians and then also emergency service people, paramedics and police attending to people lying on the ground.”

• [07:44] Jayme Poisson:
  “There is this extraordinary video of a man who tackles one of the gunmen after he came down from the bridge...and he is, of course, now being called a hero.”

• [12:42] Mark Carney:
  “It is not enough for Jewish Canadians to live without fear. This is about thriving. This is about taking the light and spreading it today across our country and through generations so that this is the last generation that has to struggle against hate.”

• [18:01] Conservative MP (Secret Santa):
  “I did inquire as to who was supposed to be my Secret Santa and it turns out it was Michael Ma and I did not get a gift. So just noted for the record.”

• [22:00] Aaron Wary:
  “It's hard to see this as anything other than a real setback for him [Poilievre], and it puts him in a very difficult position.”

• [25:17] Pierre Poilievre:
  “He is trying to manipulate his way through backroom deals to get that majority.”

• [37:10] Aaron Wary:
  “I think you would be hard pressed to find a more remarkable year in terms of Canadian political history, given just where we were 12 months ago and where we are now. And look, the easiest answer for that is that Donald Trump happened and he sort of upset the apple cart and everything kind of changed after that.”

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• [00:36] – Opening remarks about the Hanukkah event shooting.
• [02:00] – Description of the attack and its context.
• [03:32] – Eyewitness details from the scene.
• [07:44] – Heroic intervention by a community member.
• [08:56] – Details on the victims and wider community impact.
• [10:29] – The context of rising antisemitism leading up to the attack.
• [12:42] – Prime Minister Carney’s statement.
• [14:30] – Transition to Canadian politics and the Liberal majority watch.
• [15:11] – Analysis of Michael Ma’s floor crossing.
• [18:01] – The “Secret Santa” anecdote.
• [22:00] – Discussion of Conservative Party woes.
• [25:17] – Pierre Poilievre’s response.
• [28:59] – Carney government’s analysis after six months.
• [37:10] – Year-in-review reflections.

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Tone and Language

• The tone is somber, empathetic, and urgent during the coverage of the Sydney shooting, with sensitivity to the trauma experienced by the Jewish community.
• The political section blends analysis, humor (notably around the Secret Santa story), and historical perspective, while maintaining a sense of the gravity of the ongoing political realignment in Canada.

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Conclusion

This episode of Front Burner offers a compelling mix of frontline news reporting and political analysis: starting with the shockwaves from a targeted mass shooting in Australia, and deftly pivoting to a rare moment of Canadian parliamentary drama. The juxtaposition of tragedy and tumult provides listeners with both urgent international context and a nuanced understanding of Canada's shifting political landscape.

Transcript

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[Aaron Wary]

This is a CBC podcast.

[Jamie Poisson]

Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson.

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

This was an attack deliberately targeted at the Jewish community on the first day of Hanukkah, which of course should be a joyous celebration. And the Jewish community are hurting today. Today, all Australians wrap our arms around them and say, we stand with you.

[Jamie Poisson]

So that was Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. He was speaking, of course, about the horrifying mass shooting on Sunday at a popular beach where a Hanukkah event was happening. At the time that we are recording this On Sunday evening, 15 people are dead, including a child, a Holocaust survivor and a rabbi. One suspect is also dead, the other injured and in hospital. This is where we are going to start today's show. So speaking to a journalist with ABC News, Australia's public broadcaster, Shawn Tarek Goodwin, he was one of the first to arrive on the scene. And then a bit later, we will continue with the episode that we had planned before this shooting took place. A conversation with my colleague Aaron Wary about some significant political developments in Ottawa that raised serious questions about the future of the Conservative. Sean, hi. Thank you so much for making the time.

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

Hello.

[Jamie Poisson]

So I wonder if you could take us back. Can you describe what we now know happened on Sunday?

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

So this was in many ways a summer's Sunday evening at Bondi beach. Prior to this, an idyllic day, one of the first warm beach days of the summer. That's a place where many people gather. People travel to Sydney to enjoy a sunset at Bondi. And it was the first day of Hanukkah there, a celebration there of the Jewish community coming together to share in their cultural foods and activities. Families there at the park just behind the sand, enjoying the and celebrating the first day of Hanukkah. The contrast between that and what then unfolded is absolutely extreme. Two gunmen standing on a nearby bridge above a parking section, slightly elevated, opening fire into that crowd. The people I spoke to there who were in that crowd described it as 10 minutes of absolute hell on earth, witnessing people being shot, trying to render assistance, people fleeing Screaming. It was scenes of absolute extreme devastation until police and good Samaritans were able to apprehend and disarm the two shooters. At this point, 15 people are dead and in addition to that, one of the gunmen is also dead.

[Jamie Poisson]

As I said, you were one of the first reporters on the scene of the shooting. And I just wonder if you could tell me a little bit more about what you yourself saw and what you heard from more about what you heard.

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

From witnesses that afternoon. I was actually about a suburb away when I heard what sounded like fireworks followed by sirens. And that was accompanied by a sense of dread. And then we had confirmation that there was an active shooter scene down at Bondi. And when I arrived, the people who were running up from the beach with tears in their eyes warning people, there's a shooting, don't go to the beach, turn away. And arriving down to a massive group of people, a large number of civilians and then also emergency service people, paramedics and police attending to people lying on the ground. People in stretches being ferried into ambulances and and taken away. There was a cordoned off police section just behind from the beach as those people were to help provide assistance. I mean the majority of them were civilians, but there was also just a sea of flashing lights along the street behind the beach there as a massive number of ambulance and police units were there trying to move people on, trying to provide assistance there. We know that police officers were getting behind the wheel of ambulances so that paramedics could attend to people in the back and ferry them out to hospitals in the area.

[Jamie Poisson]

Wow. I know that this number is changing, but do we have a sense of just how many people are in hospital injured right now? It's quite a lot, right?

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

It is. A total of 42 people were hospitalized. Many of those remain there and many in a critical condition. The death toll announced Yesterday evening was 11 up to 12. And then further people have died in hospital. That's elevated the death toll to a total of 16 including one of the shooters. Which year old man? Police have confirmed with us this morning in a press conference that these two people, 24 year old man and a 50 year old man, were a father and son. We've confirmed the name of the younger man as Naveed Akram. That 50 year old man was shot dead by police, but the younger man was taken to hospital under police guard in a critical condition.

[Jamie Poisson]

And do we know anything else about the investigation so far police have told.

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

Us that the father, the 50 year old man was a licensed gun Owner and owned six firearms, and those among those were the firearms that were used in this incident. So the father was shot dead by police. And a home in Sydney's western suburbs which was connected to these two individuals was raided by police last night. An Airbnb in another part of the city where it's believed that those two people had been, was also raided by police. And police has formed part of their investigations. Police and security officials have told us that one of the two was known to the Australia's Security Intelligence Agency, but only in a minor way. So the details as to the investigation will. Will start to come as time comes. It's only about 12, 13 hours from this incident as we're speaking.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah, Middle. Middle of the day for you. There was a question at some point about whether there was a third shooter at this moment. What do we know about that?

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

Police have now confirmed that they don't believe there was a third person involved or a third person at the scene. There was some investigation at the time about reports of potential third person, but police have now confirmed that, that they don't believe that that was the case. They're investigating whether these two people acted in an isolated way or were connected with other individuals or networks. But the idea of a potential third person has now been essentially ruled out by police. One of the things that they were dealing with at the scene was an improvised explosive device that was in a car quite close to that bridge. And it took police some time to neutralize that threat and remove that device from the area.

[Jamie Poisson]

You mentioned earlier that the police, but also Good Samaritans, neutralized or ended up taking out the shooters. And there is this extraordinary video of a man who tackles one of the gunmen after he came down from the bridge, right, and he manages to overtake him and to steal the gun away. And he is, of course, now being called a hero. And. And what do we know about that man's story right now?

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

That man, we understand, is a father from Sydney, southern suburbs, who owns a fruit shop with his family. And the messages of praise, of the bravery of that man to approach and neutralize that threat. He runs up to this shooter and sort of grabs him from behind, wrestles his gun off him and points the gun towards him as the man retreats. The Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, the Premier of New South Wales, Wales, have both praised his. His bravery, saying that if he hadn't done that, we'd be dealing with more victims and more fatalities. And he should be credited as a hero.

[Jamie Poisson]

And just among the victims I know I mentioned in the intro there, there is a child that has now been confirmed dead, A rabbi, a Holocaust survivor. It's just terrible. What do we know right now? Could you tell me a little bit more about the victims of this?

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

We haven't confirmed the identities of all of the victims, the ones that we know. A 10 year old child, a girl, another identified victim, British born Rabbi Eli Schlanger. We do know that these shots were being fired towards this gathering of Sydney's Jewish community and we understand that a number of those victims were within that gathering. And the sense of shock and grief in Sydney, Sydney's Jewish community is just beyond words today. The Jewish leaders that we've been speaking to have been talking about the complete disbelief among them and the fear and the, the, the shock and the immense mourning in the Jewish community in Sydney as they've lost many of their own, many loved family members, community figures, young people, older people. It's an immense sense of grief. The scale of this tragedy is large, particularly for Australia. This is our most deadly shooting incident since the Port Arthur incident some years ago.

[Jamie Poisson]

I also, as I understand it, there's been a series of anti Semitic attacks in Australia recently. I think people are absolutely shocked by this. But what kind of events led up to this attack?

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

What we know is that the Jewish community in Sydney and in other parts of Australia has been feeling a rising sense of fear amid a rising sense of antisemitism in the community. We've seen a number of incidents, particularly targeting areas of Sydney where there's a high Jewish population with graffiti attacks. We've seen swastikas, we've seen slurs being spray painted on various Jewish institutions, cars set alight. We've also seen synagogues firebombed and damaged. The sense of fear of a rising sense of anti Semitism among the Jewish community has been, has been very extreme in Sydney and in Melbourne. In other parts of Australia where some of these incidents have taken place, the fears were, and what community leaders were saying was that this ends with violence. That rising incidents of intimidation, anti Semitism. Their fears and their warning was that this could only end in violence. The absolute tragedy is that a very extreme example of that violence has unfolded in Sydney. And it's something that I think was beyond even the fears of what people were concerned of. It's something that is just so extreme, targeting an open gathering in Sydney's iconic Bondi beach on the first day of Hanukkah. Families, community members of all ages gathering there and many of whom have lost their lives.

[Jamie Poisson]

Chan, thank you very much for this and for all of your coverage. Take care and thank you for making the time.

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

Thank you very much.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay, so before we move to the second part of this episode, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke Sunday at an event to mark the beginning of Hanukkah. Here's a bit of his remarks.

[Mark Carney]

The government will always stand with you. It is not enough to protect the Jewish community. It is not enough for Jewish Canadians to live without fear. This is about thriving. This is about taking the light and spreading it today across our country and through generations so that this is the last generation that has to struggle against hate.

[Jamie Poisson]

Right now we are going to take a break and then we'll be back with Erin Wary from our parliamentary bureau.

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[Jamie Poisson]

Now. All right, so now we are moving on to part two of this episode. Late last week, just hours after Parliament rose for the winter break, the Liberals got another floor crosser. With 171 seats, they are now just one MP away from holding a majority. This is all very bad news for the Conservative leader, Pierre Poliev, who now has lost two MPs to the Liberals and a third who announced his resignation. So Erin Wary from our Ottawa bureau is here with me today to discuss this. Also, we thought it would be a good time to look back at Prime Minister Carney's new government over the last half year or so. Erin.

[Aaron Wary]

Hey.

[Jamie Poisson]

Hey. So Thursday evening we get this press release from then Conservative Markham Unionville MP Michael Ma. He is crossing the floor to the Liberals. He has decided, according to him that, quote, Prime Minister Mark Carney is offering the steady, practical approach we need to deliver on the priorities. I every day while door knocking and quote, I entered public service to Help people to focus on solutions, not division. Did you see something like this coming? What do we know about how it all went.

[Aaron Wary]

Down? So I definitely didn't see it coming. I mean, there'd been obviously the rumors, you know, back a month ago, there'd been all sorts of rumors that, you know, multiple Conservative MPs were going to cross the floor to Liberals, but those had kind of died down to a certain degree and it felt like things had sort of stabilized, I guess, for the Conservatives. And then, you know, comes this news release on Thursday evening. You know, we now know it was a pretty sudden move because Michael Ma maybe became the first MP in parliamentary history to attend two different parties Christmas celebrations. He went to the Christmas party for the Conservatives one night and then showed up at the Liberal Christmas party the next.

[Mark Carney]

Night. Some of you apparently came back from the dead to be Liberals here tonight. Others may have just joined our party, like literally just joined our party. So let's give a warm welcome to our newest member of the Liberal Party, Michael.

[Shawn Tarek Goodwin]

Ma.

[Aaron Wary]

Wow. Such a big welcome. Thank you. Thank you. All I want to say is.

[Jamie Poisson]

Merry Christmas, happy Holidays, and a great.

[Aaron Wary]

2026 coming to all of you. There do seem to have been sort of long conversations happening between him and Tim Hodgson, the Natural Resources minister who represents a riding that neighbors Michael Ma's. But it does seem to have come together fairly quickly. So much so that Michael Ma was in the Conservative Party Secret Santa and seems to have apparently bailed on his Secret Santa and not delivered a.

[Jamie Poisson]

Gift. And then wasn't somebody complaining over the weekend that they got him a gift? Yes, yes.

[Aaron Wary]

Yes. The Conservative MP for a riding near London had purchased Michael Ma a gift and delivered the gift to Michael Ma. But then Michael Ma apparently did not deliver his gift to Conservative MP Jamil.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Giovanni. Can you just explain the Secret Santa.

[Mark Carney]

Thing? Oh, yeah, we had a Secret Santa. I purchased my gift for my dear friend Mel Arnold. And when we were all giving out gifts, I didn't have one given to me. And I thought, wow, maybe someone forgot, you know, no judgment. And then when Michael Ma crossed the floor, I wondered, hmm, maybe I didn't get a gift because he decided not to give one and maybe he decided to give it to a Liberal instead. So I did inquire as to who was supposed to be my Secret Santa, and it turns out it was Michael Ma and I did not get a gift. So just noted for the record.

[Jamie Poisson]

Will you be asking for one.

[Mark Carney]

Or. At this point, I don't know if I would trust whatever he wants. To send.

[Aaron Wary]

Me. There was also a suggestion that Michael Maud didn't pay for his ticket, I guess, to the Christmas party, the Conservative Christmas Party, and said something about, yeah, I'll get you later. So I would not hold my breath on him paying for his.

[Jamie Poisson]

Ticket. Ah, this is very funny. Okay, just continuing on this Christmas party theme for a little while longer here. I think it's probably worth us talking about how last year at the Liberal Christmas Party, Christa Freeland had just resigned in a letter very critical of.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Trudeau addressed to the Prime Minister from Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. We'll bring it up so you can read it along, but I'm going to read it through. For the past number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada. Our country today faces a grave challenge. The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism. We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment. That means.

[Jamie Poisson]

Pushing. Pretty seismic story. At the time, the party itself was headed towards a massive defeat. Trudeau was clinging on to leadership, essentially refusing to go. Big difference this year.

[Aaron Wary]

Hey? Yes. Yeah, it is. It is a remarkable bookend to the last 12 months because the last, you know, last Christmas party for the Liberals was a day after, as you say, a day after Freeland's resignation. You know, Justin Trudeau went and delivered a speech and tried to talk about, oh, well, you know, lots of families argue over the holidays. Like most families, sometimes we have fights around the holidays. But of course, like most families, we find our way through it. You know, the Liberal Caucus chair, who spoke it before, Mark Carney at this year's Christmas party, even brought this up to say, like, hey, remember what it was like here last year? Do you notice a difference? It is like it's. It's quite incredible that you could have a situation a year, you know, after what happened at the last Christmas party that would look like this, because I just don't think even maybe the most optimistic Liberal would have ever imagined that they would be still standing and in government 12 months later, let alone having Conservative MPs defect from Pierre Poliev's side to join.

[Jamie Poisson]

Them. Talk about Poliev. So this time last year, he was headed for a majority, and now he has lost Michael Ma, and then before that, Nova Scotia MP Chris Doncherman and also Alberta MP Matt Gennarou, who was rumored to be thinking about floor crossing, but then he just chose to resign next year and he really hasn't shown up for anything, any kind of votes since. So this is, to state the very obvious, not good for Poliev, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how bad people in Ottawa think it is for.

[Aaron Wary]

Him. Yeah, I think. I think it's quite bad. You know, I think the. What was the headline in Campbell Clark's column for the Globe Mail? Potential disaster looms for Pierre Poliev. It's hard to see this as anything other than a real setback for him, and it puts him in a very difficult.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Position. MP Chris Dontermont crossed the floor to the Liberals in November, citing Poliev's leadership as a reason why. And now Michael Ma Poliev responded, saying, today he chose to endorse the very policies that he was elected to.

[Jamie Poisson]

Oppose. The same policies driving up food.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Prices and making life more.

[Jamie Poisson]

Expensive. For all the people he let.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Down the most are the ones who elected him to fight for an affordable future. He'll have to answer to.

[Aaron Wary]

Them. You know, he has this leadership review coming up in January that is a vote of the party membership, the Conservative Party membership. And I think there's a general belief that, you know, amongst the most enthusiastic Conservative Party supporters, he still has a fair bit of support. So that, you know, he can probably win that vote, you know, somewhat easily. Although I think at this point you would have to wonder how many Conservative Party members, even amongst the most enthusiastic, are starting to wonder whether this can still hold itself together. And at what point, you know, do other Conservative MPs start to say, you know, even if they don't want to cross the floor, do they necessarily want to stick behind Pierre Polyev? Because the thing that's looming over all of this is if the Liberals get one more MP, they're up to 172. That's a, you know, a narrow majority in the House of Commons. And at that point their chances of making it a full four years start to look pretty good. And. And at that point, does it sort of cross not only a kind of mathematical threshold, but a psychological threshold for Conservatives where they say, this just isn't working? I think it's useful to remember that this crumbling unity on the Conservative side really started with Pierre Poliev talking, did an interview and suggested that there was this RCMP orchestrated cover up on behalf of Justin.

[Pierre Poliev]

Trudeau. Many of the scandals of the Trudeau era should have been involved jail time. I mean, Trudeau broke the criminal code when he took a free vacation from someone with whom he had government business, it's just like it's right there in the criminal code. If the RCMP had been doing its job and not covering up for him, then he would have been criminally.

[Aaron Wary]

Charged. And that just brought back all the questions about, you know, is Pierre Polyev the right leader for this moment? Is he the right leader that Canadians are going to support? And if the Liberals get to a majority, you know, Pierre Polyethylev is going to say, oh, it's underhanded and backroom deals and this sort of thing. But I, at that point, his argument for staying on his leader, I think he's going to have a hard time making that.

[Jamie Poisson]

Argument. We just heard him make some of that argument. Hey, he was just on our colleague Rosie Barton's show. And what kind of response did you hear from that.

[Aaron Wary]

Interview? Yeah, so he's. So a couple things. One, he's trying to turn the argument back on Mark Carney to say, you know, Mark Carney didn't get a majority in the election and now he's trying to sort of manufacture a majority by getting people to cross the.

[Pierre Poliev]

Floor. He is trying to manipulate his way through backroom deals to get that.

[Aaron Wary]

Majority. He's allowed to do this.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Right? Floor crossing is.

[Jamie Poisson]

Allowed. You've benefited from.

[Pierre Poliev]

It. But. But he's trying to take a majority, a costly majority that would drive up the cost of living and enrich Liberal elites, of course, but not through democratic means. My message to Mark Carney is that if you want a costly majority government to drive up taxes and deficits, then you have to go to the Canadian people and have them vote for it, not do.

[Aaron Wary]

It. I think it is, you know, it is interesting to see whether, you know, at some point Canadians start to view floor crossings as particularly cynical or maybe think it doesn't reflect well on Mr. Carney. But, you know, it's hard to get away entirely from the fact that they're leaving Pierre Poliev's party and the questions that raises for Mr. Poliev and his leadership. The other part of it is that, you know, our colleague Rosie Barton tried to press him on what does it say about your leadership? Are you reflecting on your.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Leadership? I mean, I know you don't like it and we can about the merits of floor crossing and whether it should be allowed, but it is allowed. So back to my question. Is this a sign of a weakness in your leadership that two members of your caucus have.

[Pierre Poliev]

Left? No, it's a sign of backroom Dealings that will drive up the cost of living. And don't take my word for it, take Mr. Ma's word. This is what he said just a few weeks.

[Aaron Wary]

Ago. And, you know, it doesn't do him any good to reflect publicly, but he doesn't seem to be reflecting on his leadership and he doesn't seem to be changing his style. And I think, rightly or wrongly, I think he sort of is who he is, and he sort of said that from the start. I think the question at this point is, at what point do, you know, Conservative MPs just decide this isn't working? And, you know, regardless of whether there's a. There's someone else waiting in the wings, they need to make a.

[Jamie Poisson]

Change. If there was someone waiting in the wings, if, like you were hypothetically a person who was interested in challenging Poliev, would you want to do it soon, before this leadership vote, or would you want to kind of wait to see how it plays out and see, you know, maybe if he doesn't get a. If he wins, but he doesn't get a very large share. Right. Like under 80% and then kind of come in when he's vulnerable.

[Aaron Wary]

There? Yeah, I mean, I think in these kind of leadership tussles, there's always some risk to coming out strong and trying to topple your leader, because if it doesn't succeed, you've maybe alienated yourself from the political party and maybe wounded your political party in the process. And we also know that these things going back to 12 months ago, they take a long time sometimes to play out. Christia Freeland's resignation may have effectively ended the Trudeau government, but it was months in the making. And the reason it sort of finally pushed things over is because he was so weakened at that point, I think. So I don't know that this is going to be resolved quickly. I don't know that someone's going to come out of the shadows and say they want to be leader or directly kind of challenge Pierre Poliev. And I think that's the other risk for the Conservatives is that this could carry on for months and months before it ever gets.

[Jamie Poisson]

Resolved. Let's switch gears a little bit here. So, as we mentioned, Parliament has now gone on winter break. They are back on January 26th. It's been a bit over half a year since Carney was elected pm, so I think it's a good time to kind of take stock here. What would you say are the big accomplishments from this government that stand out to.

[Aaron Wary]

You? I mean, first I Guess we have to say getting elected, given where we were 12 months ago, in terms of the agenda, in terms of the policy and legislative agenda, a few things. There's the major projects legislation, C5 that passed in the spring, controversial but got it through the House of Commons, seems to be having some impact. They're moving projects forward. A major budget bill or a major budget in the fall that included some pretty big moves. Canada's jobs minister is urging all MPs to back a budget that includes.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

More money for housing and infrastructure and a major cash injection for the.

[Aaron Wary]

Military. And then the memorandum of understanding with Alberta, which, again, a major move that had a lot of moving.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Parts. Both governments have agreed to a set of commitments for the idea of a pipeline that would run from western Canada to BC's coast. Now, some of the things agreed to in this MOU are that Canada will exempt Alberta from some federal environmental laws, including oil and gas emission caps, and that Alberta has agreed to expand its carbon capture program to reduce emissions. The pipeline would be built and funded by a private company and have indigenous co.

[Aaron Wary]

Ownership. I think those are kind of the three big policy moves of this government. There's a lot wrapped up in each of them. But I think that's sort of the core of what the Carney government's.

[Jamie Poisson]

Done. Obviously, the trade war with the US has been the backdrop of Carney's time in office. Trade talks are now suspended and Carney has gotten some criticism for not having a deal or promising a deal back in the summer. You know, maybe giving up some stuff or nothing in return, like the digital services tax. We have talked about how Canadians generally are giving him Runway here to deal with a very unpredictable and mercurial leader down south. But I do think it's worth us talking about the recent news that our ambassador to the us, Kirsten Hillman, is stepping down and the guy rumored to take her place is Mark Weisman, financier and friend of Carney's. And what do we know about Hillman's resignation and this reported push to put Wiseman in that.

[Aaron Wary]

Role? Yeah, so it looks like the Hillman departure, it's nothing terribly controversial. I don't think it's, you know, when the government and soon to be former ambassador, I guess, say, you know, this was sort of a natural point for her to move on. I think that's a fair argument. She'd been there for a while. You don't really hear any complaints about how she handled the job. You know, most people seem to praise the job she did there it doesn't feel like she was pushed out or that there was a conflict between her and Carney. But I think there's sort of a natural tendency for a Prime minister to want to have an ambassador there who they feel very connected to or very close to. If you go back to the Trudeau government, his first ambassador to Washington was David McNaughton, and there was some concern at the time that he didn't have ambassadorial experience and, oh, maybe he's just a friend of the Prime Minister and that's why he's being sent to Washington. But I think the argument that Trudeau people made at the time was, well, the friend part is. Is the key part, because you want people in Washington to know that when they talk to the ambassador, they're talking to someone who has the ear of the Prime Minister, who knows the prime minister, who is directly connected to the prime minister, so that there's a real connection there and they can have faith in the person they're talking to. And not that people didn't necessarily have faith in Kristen Hillman, but I think the Wiseman connection bolsters probably that office in terms of it being connected to the Prime Minister. And, and I think it probably also speaks a bit to the sort of people that Carney sort of gravitates to. Right. Which are business oriented, lots of private sector experience. And you can sort of imagine, I guess, hypothetically, how that could come in handy as we move into this next phase, potentially, of real trade.

[Jamie Poisson]

Renegotiations. Let's talk now about what hasn't been accomplished. I know that you have made a bit of a list. What stands out for you as the notable.

[Aaron Wary]

Ones? Yeah. So, as you say, there's obviously still the trade deal piece that's lingering out there, or at least some kind of agreement on the tariffs. But I think in terms of legislatively, you saw a bit this fall that the government is having not the easiest time getting legislation through the House, let's.

[Mark Carney]

Say. Well, the House of Commons has risen for the winter break without passing the government's budget bill. MPs won't be back for another six weeks. And speaking earlier today, Government House Leader Stephen McKinnon said he's disappointed there hasn't been more collaboration with opposition to get bills passed. I thought that the times called out for greater.

[Aaron Wary]

Seriousness. And we've been systematically disappointed over the course of the fall. And then in particular on the justice and crime agenda, bail reform, hate crime legislation. There's going to be some new legislation on mandatory minimums. Although that's just sort of reached the House. But some of these pieces have gotten bogged down in the House. And, you know, look, there's a lot of politics around crime and justice issues. It's an issue that the Liberals have to play a lot of defense on. In terms of signaling change, in terms of signaling a new approach, they're pretty important, I think, politically to the Carney.

[Mark Carney]

Government. This government is committed to reforming the criminal code to ensure that organized crime, crime with handguns, home invasions, auto theft, that the individuals who participate, participate in those crimes pay the price they should with consecutive sentencing that they are.

[Aaron Wary]

But they aren't moving quickly through the House. The Conservatives are, you know, contesting elements and are happy to continue having fights. And this is, you know, I understand that people don't want to, you know, necessarily, the Carnegie necessarily wants to repeat what the Trudeau government did, and for lots of reasons, you know, other parties might not want to do, to get into what the Trudeau government did in terms of a confidence and supply agreement, you know, a formal agreement to help you move things through the House. But you're sort of seeing what happens when you don't have an actual agreement, which means that you don't have a sort of guaranteed way to get legislation through the House, through committees. There's all these sorts of bottlenecks. And if in a minority Parliament, you don't have a dance partner, they can really hold you back. Of.

[Jamie Poisson]

Course, I guess being one closer to, and perhaps even on your way to a majority, if you believe many of the pundits out there will.

[Aaron Wary]

Help. Yes, yes. You were going where I was going. I guess if you can't find a confidence and supply partner, you can sort of make one yourself by just getting a few more. And you're right. If they do get, you know, one or two more MPs to cross the aisle, suddenly this gets a lot easier for.

[Jamie Poisson]

You. Yeah. Okay. Erin, you and I have talked a lot this year through this calendar year, and thank you for that. It's always so great to have you on. Actually, I should say the podcast that you and I and David Coletto recorded at 2am on election night was our number one episode of the year on Apple. From my perspective, this has been the most remarkable year that I have ever covered in Canadian politics. But you do this every day, and you always have more of, like, a historical perspective on all of this than I do. And. And just as a student of Canadian political history, what stands out to you about this last year? How would you characterize.

[Aaron Wary]

It? Yeah. You know, look, actual historians might be able to fight me on this, but I. I think you would be hard pressed to find a more remarkable year in terms of Canadian political history, given just where we were 12 months ago and where we are now. And look, the easiest answer for that is that Donald Trump happened and he sort of upset the apple cart and everything kind of changed after that. And I think that's really true in a number of ways, and in ways we're still probably processing. I think the next year is. Is also going to be about sort of this big change we're going through in this new world we're facing. The Canadian political actors in this situation, it's not like they were sort of innocent bystanders and they're just sort of dealing with the world as it comes. I think the change that Donald Trump brought changed what Canadians were looking for. It changed how they were judging their political leaders. I think it tested Canadian political leaders in terms of answering the moment, answering the challenge. And I think we're still going to see that play out over the next years to come, potentially. I think the other thing it underlines on a smaller point is I think we sometimes assume that the current state of politics is just the way it's always going to be, or an election happens and we're like, ah, politics has been fundamentally altered and it's going to stay this way forever. And I think we've seen not only in the past year, but even in recent elections that trying to predict political features is silly. And assuming that the status quo is going to go on forever or for the foreseeable future is also a mistake. And so this is why I always stay away from predictions. But I think the past year really underlines that things can change pretty quickly and pretty.

[Jamie Poisson]

Dramatically. Aaron, I feel like I've set this up to say goodbye to you until the new year and then watch. You're just gonna be back on later this.

[Aaron Wary]

Week. We still have a few days left before Christmas, so, like, we got time for a cabinet shovel and probably like two more.

[Jamie Poisson]

Floors. Totally. But thank God we got to go through that Secret Santa stuff. That is really the perfect end. Extremely fun. But if I don't talk to you later this week, happy holidays, happy New Year, and we'll talk soon. All right, that is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you.

[Aaron Wary]

Tomorrow.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Foreign. For more cbc podcasts, go to cbc ca.