Hatchet buried? The politics of an Alberta energy deal

Summary

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Hatchet Buried? The Politics of an Alberta Energy Deal

Front Burner – CBC
Date: November 26, 2025
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guests: Jason Markusoff (Calgary correspondent), Rosie Barton (Ottawa correspondent)

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Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the major announcement of an energy deal—a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—between the federal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. The agreement paves the way—at least in theory—for a new pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast, contingent upon a series of climate, regulatory, and political hurdles. The discussion delves into the details of the agreement, the deep-rooted tensions between Alberta, Ottawa, and B.C., and the complex web of stakeholders from industry to Indigenous groups. The episode examines whether this deal signals a breakthrough or merely postpones entrenched regional and political conflicts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Energy Deal: Scope and Content

• Not Just a Pipeline Agreement
  • The deal is about more than simply greenlighting a new pipeline; it includes a suite of reciprocal commitments around climate policy and regulatory changes.
  • “A lot of the language from what we understand will be something like this: If Alberta does xyz, Ottawa will do abc.” — Rosie Barton [02:41]
• Alberta’s Climate Concessions
  • Alberta must adopt a new industrial carbon pricing regime.
  • Triggers for Ottawa: removal of federal net-zero clean electricity regulations and the oil and gas emissions cap.
  • Major investment in carbon capture and storage projects (notably the "Pathways Alliance").
  • Possible limited exemption to the ban on oil tankers along B.C.'s northwest coast.
  • Language ensuring Indigenous equity or engagement in the pipeline process and some B.C. support.
• Pipeline Specifics
  • No explicit route but indicates the northwest B.C. coast as the intended destination, similar to the old Northern Gateway proposal, an area with significant Indigenous and provincial opposition.
  • The agreement acts as a roadmap or set of conditions, not an outright approval.

Political Precedents and the “Unlikely Alliance”

• Is This Precedented?
  • Similar province-federal project deals exist (e.g., Quebec on immigration or major projects office agreements), but the scope here is unusual, especially for Alberta.
  • "It is also a remarkable turn of events for Alberta and Ottawa to have reached any kind of understanding about the future of the energy sector...” — Rosie Barton [06:27]
• Comparison to Previous Pipeline Politics
  • Reference to the Trudeau-Notley era and the federal buy-in of the Trans Mountain pipeline, with Alberta trading carbon pricing for pipeline support.

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Stakeholder Reactions and Hurdles

B.C. Government and Premier David Eby

• Surprised and Frustrated
  • Eby was “deeply frustrated” at being cut out of initial talks and is demanding B.C. have a seat going forward. [11:11]
  • “This is not something that would happen to other provinces in the federation.” — David Eby [11:19]
• Key Concerns
  • Coastal First Nations must have consent (“Coastal First Nations’ consent and support is required for this conversation.” — Eby [11:53])
  • Strong opposition to lifting the tanker ban: environmental risk, threat to $1.7 billion local industry, and way of life. [12:11]
  • Risk to existing LNG and port projects if Coastal First Nations feel undermined on the tanker ban and oil transport.
  • “We have been very clear that we don’t support this project.” — Marilyn Slett, Chief of the Heiltsuk Nation and President of Coastal First Nations [15:17]

Ottawa’s Position and Liberal Party Dynamics

• Potential Caucus Blowback
  • Some BC Liberal MPs openly oppose the pipeline, but losses after the Trans Mountain pipeline did not materialize as expected.
  • Internal division: former environment ministers caution against more pipelines without maximizing current capacity.
• Climate Politics
  • The deal could give Carney’s government climate “wins,” even if the pipeline is never built.
  • “Whether the pipeline happens or not, there will potentially be some environmental wins here for the federal government.” — Rosie Barton [22:09]
• Skepticism Over Whether Pipeline Will Happen
  • No private company has signed up to build the pipeline yet. The deal may be more about political optics and relationship-mending.

Alberta’s Ambitions & Political Calculus

• Premier Danielle Smith’s Perspective
  • The deal represents a culmination of longtime efforts to remove federal barriers to energy expansion.
  • Smith is expected to tout the agreement as a big win, but the arrangement is fragile and faces skeptical opposition at home.
  • “Danielle Smith will be happy that she’s been able to deliver something…The question is how it plays with her base.” — Jason Markusoff [22:49]
• The Expansive “Pipeline Ambition”
  • Smith wants pipelines in “all directions”—not just to the B.C. coast, but also to the U.S., Churchill, Ontario, and beyond. [17:39]
  • Existing proposals to boost capacity on Trans Mountain pipeline may not satisfy the province’s larger ambitions.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Complexity of the Deal

  • “If Alberta can do all these things to improve the fight against climate change and get First Nations onside largely and deal with British Columbia’s opposition, the federal government would then, for instance, remove or exempt the tanker ban on that coastline so that a pipeline could be built.”
    — Rosie Barton [04:37]

• Premier Eby’s Exclusion

  • “This is not something that would happen to other provinces in the federation. I don’t know why the thought was that it would be okay for it to happen in British Columbia.”
    — David Eby [11:19]

• Coastal First Nations’ Stand

  • “We have been very clear that we don’t support this project…Our position is not a new position. It’s been in place for many decades and this is our home.”
    — Marilyn Slett [15:17]

• On Pipeline Realism

  • “I do think it’s worth asking the question, is this real?”
    — Rosie Barton [21:24]

• On Alberta’s Separatist Leanings

  • “The base, of course, as we’ve been talking about…has developed these separatist leanings…I’m not sure if she’s going to be able to put all that toothpaste back in the tube and sell them on a memorandum of understanding which some of the people...were already saying is just a memo.”
    — Jason Markusoff [24:21]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:36] – Episode intro and overview of Carney’s “don’t worry about the pipeline” comment
• [02:01] – Breakdown of what’s actually in the Alberta-Ottawa energy deal (Rosie Barton)
• [05:22] – Discussion of precedent and history of federal-provincial deals
• [07:00] – Danielle Smith’s perspective and Alberta’s long-running pipeline quest (Jason Markusoff)
• [10:38] – BC’s reaction, Premier Eby’s anger at being left out
• [11:53] – Eby’s key concerns: First Nations, environmental risk, and the tanker ban
• [15:17] – Marilyn Slett (Heiltsuk Nation) on steadfast Coastal First Nations opposition
• [16:48] – Alternatives proposed: Expanding Trans Mountain capacity vs. new pipeline
• [17:39] – Alberta’s “all directions” pipeline policy ambitions
• [19:09] – Implications for Liberal support in B.C., internal party tensions
• [21:56] – Climate wins for Ottawa even without a pipeline
• [22:49] – How this plays for Danielle Smith and Alberta’s political right

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Conclusion

The episode lays bare the intricate, high-stakes chess game unfolding among Alberta, Ottawa, and B.C. over Canada’s energy future. The deal may mark a cooling of hostilities and a shrewd political balancing act: Ottawa gets climate concessions, Alberta gets its pipeline aspirations advanced (if not achieved), and B.C. is left sorting through its exclusion and opposition. Yet, enormous political, legal, and practical obstacles remain, especially with entrenched Indigenous and local resistance on the B.C. coast, and no clear private sector builder in sight. Whether the hatchet is really buried or just hidden until the next crisis remains unresolved.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

This is a cbc podcast.

[A]

Hey everybody, I'm jamie bresson. So earlier this month, Prime Minister Mark Carney was giving this interview on stage at the Canadian Club, which bills itself as this forum for thought leaders in the country. And Carney is asked if a pipeline is in the works with Alberta and.

[C]

He says this don't worry, we're on the pipeline stuff.

[B]

Danielle's on line one. Don't worry, it's going to happen. But, well, something's going to happen, let's put it that way.

[A]

Well, that something is now happening. On Thursday, Carney is scheduled to stand at a presser with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith and announce this energy deal in the form of a memorandum of understanding that is, among other things, expected to help clear, clear a path for a pipeline to the B.C.

[C]

Coast.

[A]

That is, of course, if Alberta can get through the significant hurdles of First nations and B.C. opposition where Premier David Eby was completely cut out of pipeline talks and they also need to find a company to build it. There isn't one yet. My colleagues Jason Markusoff out of Calgary and Rosie Barton out of Ottawa are here and we are going to discuss the politics around this coming agreement with Ottawa and how it sets a Alberta and B.C. on a collision course. Hi, Rosie. Hi, Jason.

[C]

Hey, Jamie.

[B]

Hello.

[A]

It's really great to have you guys. So let's start with this energy deal that is going to be announced officially on Thursday. We're a road to an energy deal. Rosie, what do we know through various sources about what it is going to say?

[C]

Yeah, I mean, I'll start by saying that it's right that you characterize it as an energy deal because it is not just an agreement, agreement to build a pipeline. I'm sure that a lot of headlines will be talking about a pipeline, but it is bigger than that and it's gonna lay out sort of some of what Alberta has to do to get an easing of what Premier Smith calls the nine bad laws, the laws that she thinks stand in the way of the energy sector. A lot of the language from what we understand will be something like this. If Alberta does xyz, Ottawa will do abc. So it's hard for me to tell you how that's all going to shake out. But I can tell you some of the things that we are reporting will be in it. There will be a new industrial carbon pricing regime that Alberta will have to adopt. That would then trigger, from what we understand, Ottawa, to remove the net zero clean electricity regulations. There will be a multi billion dollar investment in carbon capture and storage that the project, the pathways, all. Sure, Jason knows much more about. There will be, and this was signaled in the budget as well, a removal of the cap on oil and gas emissions. There could be a limited exemption to the existing ban on oil tanker traffic off British Columbia's northwest coast. And there will be some sort of language around the need for indigenous equity or ownership and some sort of engagement or support from British Columbia in order to get to a pipeline to British Columbia.

[A]

And what is it, what do we know about what it says specifically about the pipeline itself? Like a route, for example?

[C]

Yeah, I mean, it is largely, I'm not going to say exactly the same route as a northern gateway. It is on the northwest coast of British Columbia, a place where there has long been an understanding that British Columbia doesn't want a pipeline. So I don't know that you'll get sort of a clear picture of where the pipeline's going to go. I think instead you'll get a commitment that if all these things fall into place, if Alberta can do all these things to improve the fight against climate change and get first nations onside largely and deal with British Columbia's opposition, the federal government would then, for instance, remove or exempt the tanker ban on that coastline so that a pipeline could be built.

[A]

Okay. And I know we're gonna get into what a heavy lift that's gonna be. But just first, this agreement or this memorandum of understanding as they're calling it, is there any kind of like precedent for a deal like this between a province and the federal government?

[C]

I mean, in some ways, the major projects office that we've been talking so much about is a little bit like this, right? It's an agreement with a province about a project that already has a backer, usually a company, to facilitate and speed up a project. So in that way, there are sort of smaller versions of this popping up all across the country. And in fact, Alberta, of course, doesn't have one of those projects yet. So this, this is in part to address this. But listen, Ottawa regularly comes to kind of deals with provinces on things. I would say that the best comparison would probably be many things that have been done between Ottawa and Quebec, whether it be on immigration, for instance. Whether it be on language protections, whether it be on funding for dealing with refugees. So there are some similarities but I think this is and again we'll see what the language is, but I think it's pretty unusual for other provinces to have it. And I'll be happy to hear more from Jason on this. But it is also a remarkable turn of events for Alberta and Ottawa to have reached any kind of understanding about the future of the energy sector and is a complete and total change from what we saw under the previous Prime Minister.

[A]

Jason, let me bring you in here. How do you think Premier Daniel Smith is feeling about this at the moment? Is, is this what she's been wanting from the federal government?

[D]

This is the culmination of a long time push for her and I don't think it's one that we could have foreseen her having with Justin Trudeau, the former Prime Minister, the person who brought in the oil and gas emissions cap, the person brought in the clean electricity regulations, person who legislated this oil, oil tanker ban on the north B.C. coast. These were all policies that he'd put in place to strike as he saw the balance between energy and the environment. I mean the ironic thing is that when were asking Rosie about which what precedent is there? I actually think back to the last pipeline that Alberta got, which in fact was in a different era. Trudeau and then Premier Rachel Notley in the middle of last decade where he did, he rejected the northern gateway, this northern coast BC pipeline. He rejected the energy east pipeline, but he did approve the Trans Mountain pipeline down to the lower mainland. The Prime Minister interrupted an international diplomatic trip to to deal with a domestic political feud, throwing the might and the money of the federal government behind Alberta.

[C]

To get a pipeline built to the B.C. coast.

[D]

The trans Mountain pipeline expansion is a vital strategic interest to Canada.

[C]

It will be built. I am quite confident that the nature of the conversation that we are having at this point will get the job done.

[D]

And in exchange for that, he also got from the Alberta government an agreement to keep the industrial carbon tax going up at a certain steady level. That seemed like a different era. It seems like through these the outlines of this deal, what the Mark Carney government is basically saying is if you make this pipeline far less problematic, if you remove the or ease the resistance from environmentalists because of emissions, if you remove the resistance from being and the coastal first nations, then you can get a pipeline. Danielle Smith might announce this on Thursday as we're getting a pipeline. But Carney and other liberals may perceive this more as here is the roadmap to a pipeline. Hey, Ryan Reynolds here wishing you a very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the gift of 50% off unlimited. To be clear, that's half price, not half the service. Mint is still premium unlimited wireless for a great price. So that means a half day.

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[A]

Let'S dig into what that that road could look like, right, to try and make this far less problematic for the federal government. And maybe let's go through some of the groups and people directly affected by this. And let's start with B.C. premier David Evie and the province of B.C. eB was apparently taken very off guard last week when news leaked that Ottawa and Alberta were close to this deal. And Rosie, what have we heard from Evie on this?

[C]

Yeah, I mean, I think off guard and also frankly, deeply frustrated that he was not part of the conversation.

[B]

This is not something that would happen to other provinces in the federation. I don't know why the thought was that it would be okay for it to happen in British Columbia. But regardless, I was very clear that my expectation is that going forward that British Columbia be at the table and that we're able to.

[C]

He will be going forward. That is, in fact, that will be sort of outlined in the agreement. But he did speak to the Prime Minister on Monday and he went through sort of his main concerns. One that first nations need to have a say of how this is going to unfold.

[B]

Coastal first nations consent and support is required for this conversation.

[C]

He talked about, of course, the tanker ban and the dangers of transporting oil on that north coast, which is something that is really important to very many British Columbians.

[B]

A heavy oil spill will decimate a $1.7 billion industry of fisheries and tourism and a way of life for people in the Northwest that have been living that way of life. For millennia.

[C]

And he talked about how that. And this I think is a really important and interesting point, how that tanker ban has also built a consensus for development of other projects. And by that I'm talking about liquefied natural gas LNG plants that the premier has had actually now another one approved by the Major Projects Office. And he believes that that tanker ban and the equity deal that they've reached with Coastal first nations is part of the reason that they've allowed that project to go ahead.

[B]

Alberta is indifferent to the legal rights of the Coastal first nations and their rights and title in the area. I'm sure they are not indifferent to the fact that Coastal first nations support for major projects like Silicim's LNG, LNG Canada Phase 2 expansions to the port of Prince Rupert, all of which involve. Involve the transport of products, including products from Alberta to Tidewater, that Coastal First Nation support is required for those too.

[C]

So that is also, he believes, hanging in the balance.

[A]

Right, Right. He's saying essentially that these, the Coastal first nations might pull their support for these other projects.

[C]

Exactly.

[A]

And just you mentioned the danger for the tanker ban. Just for people listening, I think it's because the waters off of that coast are very rough. Right. And the idea is that these boats could capsize and there could be an oil spill. That's really concern that people.

[C]

Yeah. And that it's a very narrow space, I think, is the other issue. It's not as. It wouldn't be as easy as it sounds. Yeah.

[A]

I know that B.C. currently has a large number of projects on the major projects list with the federal government. It's like disproportionate to other provinces. Ottawa is also set to unveil a new softwood lumber aid project. And do you think will any of this kind of soften the blow here?

[C]

I don't know and I don't think so. Yeah, you're right. That soft wood package could come as early as this week, perhaps even on Friday, which would be interesting timing to say the least. I think a couple of things. Premier Eby knows very well that British Columbia doesn't have a veto on the project. If the federal government wants it to happen, it has the jurisdiction and ability to allow it to happen. And there is some polling that suggests that some more British Columbians than you might think would be in favor of the pipeline, though they don't tend to live in the area where the pipeline would go through. And I think that Premier Eby is very conscious of the Coastal First Nations. I talked to Marilyn Slat the chief of the Hetzluk nation and president of the Coastal first nations on Sunday. And this is an absolute no go. We have been very clear that we don't support this project.

[A]

We've called upon the federal government to.

[C]

Uphold the tanker man. Our position is not a new position. It's been in place for many decades and this is our home. We rely upon a healthy ocean to sustain our way of life. And so I don't, I don't know how they get past those two roadblocks. I don't know what the premier of Alberta says to those opponents to convince them. I'm not sure what that is.

[A]

Jason. In anticipation of this announcement, EB and the BC government were clearly trying to get ahead of it, right. Like they spoke about their opposition to it. But they also are like putting forward this alternative, right. Their support to add capacity on a pipeline that we already have, the Trans Mountain pipeline. And doing this would add I think 360,000 million more barrels of oil a day to the market. BC is also saying that they could dredge this bridge that would allow for other types of ships to make it into the harbor. Right. And people like the CEO of the Trans Mountain pipeline, they're saying we should do this right now. We should put more capacity into the TMX pipeline and then reevaluate whether we need a new pipeline from there. And why is this not enough for Danielle Smith or do you think that she could bite on this?

[D]

I mean, I think it could be well that she might bite on this in that she'd like to see it happen. But that doesn't mean that she's not going to still want more. I mean, this is one of the things that's animating Danielle Smith in the Alberta government right now is that they have big ambitions to expand the oil sector. They've talked about doubling the production in the oil in the oil and gas sector. That seems almost mind boggling given how many more megaprojects that we would have to be, how many more oil sands operations. But that is what they're going for. And of course if you're going to be expanding your oil production capacity, you need to ship it out, you need to send it places and that's where pipelines come in. I mean Danielle Smith seems to have manifold ambition in terms of where pipelines go.

[C]

I want to see pipelines in all directions, north, east, southw. There's lots of other, lots of proposals that are on the table including she.

[D]

Still wants one down to the US she still Wants one to Churchill Port, something in Manitoba, maybe something in Ontario.

[C]

There are proposals that could potentially see us transport oil to Thunder Bay and then out through the St. Lawrence Seaway, as well as oil by rail going all the way to Nova Scotia and Sydney. So I'm not.

[D]

But because Danielle Smith, you know, doesn't want to be told no on any pipeline. Certainly not this one, the one that she, she and a lot of the industry seems as the easiest one. Doesn't sound like they'll be placated by that at all.

[A]

Rosie, before you were talking about how this would essentially be up to the premiere to make this happen. This, you know, very difficult task. And, you know, I think in many ways the federal government is kind of getting out of the way or clearing their path here. But I imagine that this will also create quite a bit of blowback for Carney himself. Right. Including in his own caucus. For example, last week, BC Liberal MP Victoria Greaves told the national observer that her constituents, like her, were decisively not in support of a pipeline. And what are the Liberals at risk of losing in B.C. in terms of support here?

[C]

So I would point out that we kind of did go through this with tmx, right? There was a fear that Liberals would lose seats because of that. With the Liberal MP Terry beach, for instance, it never happened. He won his seat again. So I say that with the understanding that there may be seats in jeopardy, but there may and there may also be people inside caucus who are not happy. Stephen Gilbell, the former environment minister, now the minister of essentially Heritage, said, you know, I think before we start talking about building pipelines, we need to talk about what you and Jason were just talking about, maximizing capacity. Jonathan Wilkinson, another former minister under Justin.

[D]

Trudeau, said there needs to be significant support. It doesn't necessarily have to be unanimous. It wasn't a, in the case of Trans Mountain. But there needs to be significant support. And at present time, I don't think there is.

[C]

Here's what I would say. If the deal has a very big climate fighting component that Alberta will lock into and that the Prime Minister can point to as a demonstration of how Alberta is now largely on the same page as the federal government when it comes to fighting climate change, that could go some, some ways to, I think, reassuring people inside his caucus, reassuring where his electoral base is, which is in Quebec, and reassuring potentially voters in British Columbia. I would also say that it's important to remember that there is no proponent, there is no one chomping at the bit to build this thing. They might emerge after, after this announcement, but for now, they're not there. And so I do think it's worth asking the question, is this real? Like, is this a real thing that's going to happen? Not the deal itself, but is the idea of this pipeline real, or is this just a way to improve relationships for both of these leaders and for both of them to be able to say, look what I did, and maybe the pipeline never happens. I mean, I realize I'm putting all this speculation out there, but it just seems to me that getting to the pipeline is going to be incredibly hard. But doing all the things leading up to the pipeline could be very, very helpful for a prime minister who is also interested in dealing with climate issues. Right.

[A]

You're saying that it's very possible that at the end of this, there is no pipeline and that won't necessarily be the fault of the federal government, but that the federal government could also get some climate wins out of this.

[C]

Yeah, it's not the. From what we understand, again, the conditions that are going to be set out to change the way Alberta deals with climate change, whether it be the Pathways alliance, whether it be the industrial carbon price, those things are going to happen with or without the pipeline. Those are the steps the Alberta government must take in order to get to a pipeline. So whether the pipeline happens or not, there will potentially be some environmental wins here for the federal government.

[A]

And Jason, final word to you here, just how you think this is all going to play for could play for Daniel Smith.

[D]

It could play in a couple different ways. While Alberta is pretty solidly in favor of this pipeline. So people will be broadly pleased about this. Even some people who are pushing for stronger environmental performance for Alberta will be happy with that. Danielle Smith will be happy that she's been able to deliver something that had been elusive, that certainly had eluded her predecessor, Jason Kenny, and a lot of premieres under Justin Trudeau's leadership. The question is how it plays with her base. This end is the United Conservative Party convention, and she seems like she wanted to deliver it for that partisan base, that partisan base that has become increasingly frustrated with Ottawa, with liberal prime minister. Doesn't matter if it's Mark Carney or Justin Trudeau. The base, of course, as we've been talking about over the last several months, has developed these separatist leanings. And I'm going to be very curious to see how it plays with that group. Broadly speaking, Alberta will be pretty satisf with this. Any tensions that Ottawa is broken, Ottawa can't deal with Ottawa or Alberta will be eased by this. But for those hardline separatists, those hardline Albertans who do not trust Mark Carney or the liberals or basically anybody out of Ottawa want Alberta to go on its own, they might see this as just a piece of paper, no guarantee, stuff to be broken and we're giving up a whole lot on our end. Danielle Smith has spent so many referenda for to get out of out the Canada pension plan or the rcmp. I'm not sure if she's going to be able to put all that toothpaste back in the tube and sell them on a memorandum of understanding which some of the people were on the separate side were already saying is just a memo.

[A]

Okay guys, this was really helpful. Thank you so much for this.

[D]

Happy to help.

[C]

Thanks, Jamie.

[A]

All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

[B]

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