Front Burner (CBC)

Episode: How Trump is forcing the Conservatives to pivot

Date: February 17, 2025
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guests: Erin Wary (Senior Political Writer, CBC Parliamentary Bureau), David Coletto (CEO, Abacus Data)

Overview

This episode examines how the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and escalating cross-border tensions—especially tariff threats and sovereignty debates—are forcing Canada’s Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, to recalibrate their approach. The discussion explores how these changes are straining the Conservative coalition, influencing Liberal party strategies, and reshaping the overall electoral dynamics ahead of the 2025 federal election.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: U.S.-Canada Tensions, Tariffs, and “Canada First”

• The episode opens with a symbolic weekend hockey fight at a Canada-U.S. tournament, reflecting heightened antagonism between the countries ([01:07]–[01:53]).
• Poilievre’s “Canada First Rally” in Ottawa is examined as more than just a campaign launch: it’s a response to tariff threats and Trump’s antagonism ([02:53]).
  • Erin Wary notes that Poilievre’s pivot to patriotism and “Canada First” is not entirely new but is now more pronounced. He is reframing prior Conservative positions—on taxes, pipelines, drugs, borders—as core to the national response ([03:09]–[04:32]).
  • A significant tone shift: Poilievre notably dropped the word "broken"—he once characterized Canada as broken, but now reframes the rhetoric toward unity and strength ([05:04], [07:37]).

Quote:

“He’s sort of trying to reframe a lot of things he was already talking about as more needed now than ever. But I think it is also conspicuous how much his language has changed. I don’t think the word ‘broken’ appeared anywhere in that speech yesterday.”
— Erin Wary ([04:32])

2. Poilievre’s Trump Dilemma: Balancing a Fractured Coalition

• David Coletto explains Poilievre’s problem: the Conservative base is now split between pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions ([05:08]).
• Poilievre tries to sidestep direct confrontation: he mentions Trump’s name only seven times at the rally, avoiding direct attacks or endorsement, and instead focuses on defending Canadian sovereignty.

Quote:

“So let me be clear. We will never be the 51st state. We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country.”
— Pierre Poilievre ([05:51])

• The challenge: Conservatives were once united by opposition to Justin Trudeau, but Trump introduces new wedges. How hard can Conservatives go against Trump, considering pro-Trump support among members? ([06:09])

3. Liberal Party Strategy: Tying Poilievre to Trump

• The Liberals seize on Conservative vulnerabilities by running ads juxtaposing Poilievre and Trump (“fake news,” “woke,” “radical left,” etc.) ([07:04]).
  • The ads argue that Poilievre “can’t speak for Canada when he speaks like Trump,” echoing lines he used when Canada was “broken.”
• Erin Wary observes the Liberals are now comfortable directly attacking Trump and those seen as aligned with him, breaking with their past caution ([07:47], [09:15]).

Quote:

“Donald Trump isn’t just the president, he is the president who is threatening Canada. ... There is overlap [with Poilievre]—he did use the word ‘woke’ three times yesterday, he talked about cancel culture.”
— Erin Wary ([07:47]–[09:15])

• The ads and rhetoric target a public increasingly wary of Trump’s return, particularly older voters.

4. Public Reaction: Generational Divides and Shifting Polls

• David Coletto highlights polling: public anger at Trump’s policies is most pronounced among baby boomers ([09:42]–[10:35]).
  • Boomers are more likely than other generations to express desire to boycott U.S. goods and seem to drive the recent improvement in Liberal polling.
  • The public mood has changed dramatically in just two weeks, with increased Liberal fortunes and narrowing of the Conservative polling lead.

5. Conservative Policy Moves: Foreign Aid and Media

• Poilievre recently announced plans to boost Arctic security via “massive cut to Canada’s foreign aid budget” ([11:45]).
  • This echoes U.S. policy shifts and risks further perceptions of Poilievre as Trump-lite ([13:18]).
  • His media moves—giving interviews to outlets hostile to “legacy media” and promising more access for “independent media”—reinforce parallels in style with Trump’s media strategy ([12:55], [13:18]).

Quote:

“There's no reason why it should be a small cabal of government-approved mouthpieces. It is highly undemocratic. I’ve always believed that.”
— Pierre Poilievre ([12:55])

• Erin Wary: Both policy directions fit previous Conservative positions but now risk being seen as “too American,” which the Liberals can exploit.

6. Polling Volatility and the Mark Carney Factor

• The transition from Trudeau to Mark Carney as Liberal leader is causing a polling boost, but the size and sustainability are debated ([15:42]–[17:22]).
  • Coletto: All polls show Liberal momentum, but the gap with the Conservatives varies wildly depending on methodology and recent events.
  • NDP support is noticeably dropping, with many former NDP voters now considering Liberals, especially with Carney as leader ([17:42]).
• Carney polls well “hypothetically”—he’s serious, experienced, and has economic credibility—but many Canadians don’t know him well yet ([18:44]–[19:23]).

Quote:

“Mark Carney, hypothetically, … is at least right now able to get people over whatever hurdle they had previously to say, ‘Look, if it’s him, if he’s the leader of the party, I might actually vote Liberal this time.’”
— David Coletto ([18:44])

• Historical caution: Leadership bumps (e.g., John Turner in 1984) don’t always translate to election success ([19:37]–[21:36]).

7. Election Timing: Snap Election Speculation

• With rumours of an early (March) election to capitalize on Liberal momentum and avoid the risk of damage from responding to Trump’s tariffs, both guests suggest it makes strategic sense ([22:42]–[24:16]).
  • However, there are risks: the new Liberal leader (Carney) isn’t in Parliament and the party might not be ready for a campaign.
  • The possibility of needing to recall Parliament for an emergency (e.g., tariff response) is raised as an unpredictable factor ([24:16]–[26:07]).

Quote:

“Tell me what the state of the world and the continent is going to be in mid-March. The one argument for bringing Parliament back, the strongest argument would be if there's some kind of emergency that needs to be dealt with ... It's just so hard to know what the world's going to look like in a month that it's really hard to predict.”
— Erin Wary ([24:16])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We will never be the 51st state.” — Pierre Poilievre ([05:51])
• “This wedge that’s kind of dividing [the Conservative coalition] around how do you deal with Trump and how hard can you go on him?” — David Coletto ([06:09])
• “The Liberals are now betting their fortunes on the idea that Canadians fear Trump and see his shadow in Poilievre.” — Paraphrased, Erin Wary ([09:15])
• “The NDP vote is dropping right across the board in our poll. It’s the lowest we've measured in years at 15% ... catastrophic for the New Democrats.” — David Coletto ([17:42])

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [00:39] — Pierre Poilievre’s “Canada First” rally speech excerpt
• [02:53] — Discussion begins: Analysis of the rally and Poilievre’s pivot
• [05:08] — David Coletto on Conservative coalition’s “Trump problem”
• [07:04] — Liberal campaign ads tie Poilievre to Trump
• [09:01] — Discussion on “woke” language and overlaps in rhetoric
• [09:42] — Boomers’ reaction to Trump and consequences for polling
• [11:45] — Poilievre’s announcement: foreign aid cuts for Arctic security
• [12:55] — Poilievre on media access, similarities to U.S. “free press” rhetoric
• [15:42] — Polling volatility and shifts since Carney’s ascension
• [17:22] — NDP vote collapse as Liberal momentum builds
• [18:44] — Impact of Carney leadership on Liberal fortunes
• [19:37] — Historical perspective: 1984 Turner transition caution
• [22:42] — Early election speculation
• [24:16] — Risks and unpredictabilities of snap election timing

Conclusion

The episode provides an in-depth look at how Donald Trump’s return and aggressive U.S. posture are shaking up Canadian politics—forcing Conservatives to walk a precarious line and offering Liberals new material for campaign attacks. It’s a moment of volatility: public opinion is shifting rapidly while politicians must recalibrate strategies amid economic uncertainty and looming elections. The panel stresses that, despite dramatic recent developments, much remains unpredictable as Canada enters a pivotal electoral season.