Front Burner — "In Asia, Canada hopes to fill a Trump-sized void"
CBC | Host: Jamie Poisson | Guest: Veena Najabullah, VP of Research & Strategy, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
Date: October 29, 2025
Episode Overview
In this episode, host Jamie Poisson delves into Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pivotal trip across Asia, dissecting Canada’s strategy to position itself as a reliable alternative to the United States, particularly amid ongoing trade turbulence with a second-term Donald Trump. Jamie is joined by Veena Najabullah, VP at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, to explore what’s at stake as Canada navigates shifting global alliances, fraught relationships with China and India, and ambitious new trade and investment goals in the Indo-Pacific.
Main Themes & Purpose
- Geopolitical Realignment: With the U.S. proving unpredictable under Trump, Canada is urgently seeking new economic partners in Asia.
- Strategic Diversification: Canada’s push to reduce reliance on the U.S. by deepening trade ties with countries like Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, China, and India.
- Diplomacy in a Fractured World: Navigating complex relationships—balancing values, security concerns, and commercial interests with China and India.
- Building a New Canadian Identity Abroad: Defining what kind of global partner Canada wants to be in a post-American unipolar world.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Carney’s Mission in Asia: Projecting Reliability
Timestamps: 01:01 – 03:45
- Carney seeks to “sell the possibility of Canada,” emphasizing commitment to a rules-based system, trade agreements, and collaborating through uncertainty.
- “We value a rules based system. We respect trade agreements and the rule of law... We’re a natural partner.”
— Prime Minister Mark Carney (01:32)
- “We value a rules based system. We respect trade agreements and the rule of law... We’re a natural partner.”
- Veena Najabullah explains that this trip is Carney’s first as PM to the region, aiming to position Canada as a “serious partner” interested in “inclusive trade and sustainable development”—unlike the rising protectionist giants.
- “Canada has something to offer the region and is committed to being a serious partner that is also reliable.”
— Veena Najabullah (03:05)
- “Canada has something to offer the region and is committed to being a serious partner that is also reliable.”
2. Context: Escalating Friction with the U.S.
Timestamps: 03:45 – 04:47
- U.S. President Trump cancels trade talks over a Canadian anti-tariff ad, labelling Canadians as “very difficult to negotiate with,” exacerbating Canada’s urgency to diversify economically.
- Najabullah stresses diversification, noting, “Now it’s not just kind of a nice-to-have, but it’s a must-have if Canada is to continue to be a prosperous, secure country.” (04:47)
3. Canada’s Strategy in the Indo-Pacific
Timestamps: 06:04 – 09:39
- Key summit stops: Malaysia (ASEAN), Singapore, engagement with China and Korea.
- Deepening partnerships in Southeast Asia—region seen as a prime opportunity due to complementarities (energy, food, resources).
- “A shift from... values-based... foreign policy to one of pragmatic engagement.”
— Veena Najabullah (07:09) - Energy at the forefront: deal with Malaysia on LNG investment, leveraging Petronas’ existing ties to Canada.
- “We’re an energy superpower, unabashedly... the third largest reserves of oil.”
— Carney (08:19)
- “We’re an energy superpower, unabashedly... the third largest reserves of oil.”
- Focus on tech, AI, quantum, and attracting Asian investment to scale up Canadian infrastructure—ports, critical minerals, nuclear SMRs, aerospace, cyber.
- “Much of that [quadrupled defense budget] will go into sectors that are dual use: civilian and defense.”
— Najabullah (11:55)
- “Much of that [quadrupled defense budget] will go into sectors that are dual use: civilian and defense.”
4. Resetting the China Relationship
Timestamps: 12:12 – 17:12
- History of tension: Canada’s foreign minister labelled China a “disruptive global power” and Carney called it the “biggest security threat” as recently as April; now government frames China as a “strategic partner.”
- The ‘recalibration’ debate:
- “It’s still not quite clear where the Carney government wants to take our relationship with China... what that relationship could look like, I think there are still more questions than answers.”
— Najabullah (13:09)
- “It’s still not quite clear where the Carney government wants to take our relationship with China... what that relationship could look like, I think there are still more questions than answers.”
- The goal is to build trade without undermining national security or jeopardizing U.S. relations, a tough balancing act given China’s emboldened global position.
- “We would like to have more trade... but in a way that doesn’t undermine our national security... or our negotiations with the U.S.”
— Najabullah (15:41)
- “We would like to have more trade... but in a way that doesn’t undermine our national security... or our negotiations with the U.S.”
- Notable quote:
- “Now we’re in the process of resetting expectations of where the relationship can go and where it won’t go... this is the second largest economy in the world.”
— Carney (15:15)
- “Now we’re in the process of resetting expectations of where the relationship can go and where it won’t go... this is the second largest economy in the world.”
5. Realpolitik with China: Trade, Security, & Values
Timestamps: 17:12 – 21:25
- Past traumas: Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou case, ‘Two Michaels,’ ongoing election meddling, Uyghur genocide motion.
- Need for clear-eyed engagement:
- “We need to continue to develop instruments that protect us... while also having conversation with their leadership on trade and areas of economic cooperation.”
— Najabullah (19:30)
- “We need to continue to develop instruments that protect us... while also having conversation with their leadership on trade and areas of economic cooperation.”
- The challenge of triangulation: every step with China may have consequences for U.S.-Canadian relations, especially regarding sensitive sectors like EVs.
- “We have to really do everything possible to protect our industries today, but also to create the foundations that allow us to have the kind of industry that we want also five, ten years from now.”
— Najabullah (21:25)
- “We have to really do everything possible to protect our industries today, but also to create the foundations that allow us to have the kind of industry that we want also five, ten years from now.”
6. India: Diplomatic Crisis & Reset
Timestamps: 25:00 – 29:20
- Recalling how Trudeau accused India of involvement in the assassination of a Canadian Sikh leader; further allegations of espionage and interference led to major diplomatic fallout.
- Najabullah draws a distinction between China and India:
- “With India we have a very specific issue... But the challenge from India is not kind of systemic; it doesn’t come from the regime in Delhi because... India... is a democracy.” (26:02)
- Relationship reset is “conditioned on progress in the security and law enforcement side,” with gradual improvement and ongoing dialogue.
- “If we approach it step by step and make sure at every turn we are... moving on law enforcement and on rebuilding trust and economic partnerships, I think it’s a more feasible relationship to repair than the one with China.”
— Najabullah (29:20)
- “If we approach it step by step and make sure at every turn we are... moving on law enforcement and on rebuilding trust and economic partnerships, I think it’s a more feasible relationship to repair than the one with China.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “We value a rules-based system. We respect trade agreements and the rule of law... We’re a natural partner.”
— Mark Carney (01:32) - “Now it’s not just kind of a nice-to-have, but it’s a must-have if Canada is to continue to be a prosperous, secure country.”
— Veena Najabullah (04:47) - “We’re an energy superpower, unabashedly... the third largest reserves of oil. We have the fourth largest reserves of LNG.”
— Mark Carney (08:19) - “Much of that [quadrupled defense budget] will go into sectors that are dual use: civilian and defense.”
— Veena Najabullah (11:55) - “It’s still not quite clear where the Carney government wants to take our relationship with China... what that relationship could look like, I think there are still more questions than answers.”
— Veena Najabullah (13:09) - “We have to be able to do multiple things at once. We are not living in a world of black and white; unfortunately, the world is getting very grey.”
— Veena Najabullah (29:20)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:01 — Carney’s pitch in Asia; reframing Canada’s global role
- 03:45 — Trump’s latest trade dispute pushes urgency for diversification
- 06:04 — Canada’s concrete Asia strategy: key destinations, priorities, and sectors
- 12:12 — The evolving China relationship and the dilemma of engagement vs. values
- 17:12 — The legacy of the ‘Two Michaels,’ election interference, and EV tariffs
- 25:00 — Navigating the diplomatic minefield with India, and contrasting strategies with China
Tone & Language
The conversation is analytical and pragmatic, reflecting both optimism and realism:
- Jamie Poisson maintains a clear-eyed, probing style—asking about the practicalities and the “grey” world of modern diplomacy.
- Veena Najabullah brings a measured, strategic lens—balancing opportunities with risks, and always grounding the analysis in realpolitik.
Takeaway
In an era where old alliances are fraying and new powers ascending, Canada is urgently repositioning itself as a reliable, pragmatic partner in Asia. The challenge: balancing values, security, and prosperity amid U.S.-China rivalry, protectionist moves, and shifting sands. This episode offers a nuanced look at how Canada must thread the needle—building trust and trade in Asia while not losing sight of its own core interests and identity.