Is the U.K. ungovernable?

Summary

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Front Burner – "Is the U.K. ungovernable?"

Date: June 23, 2026
Host: Jamie Poisson (CBC)
Guest: Zoe Grunewald (Freelance journalist; Panelist on "Oh God, What Now?")

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Episode Overview

In this episode, host Jamie Poisson explores the latest chapter in British political turmoil: the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer after less than two years in office. With Starmer becoming the sixth PM to step down in a decade, Poisson is joined by journalist Zoe Grunewald to discuss why the UK keeps cycling through leaders, whether the nation is truly "ungovernable," and the conditions fueling growing instability. Together, they unpack the roles of party infighting, public disillusionment, right-wing populist threats, and deep economic woes.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Fall of Keir Starmer

• Starmer’s Downfall:

  • Over the last six months, Starmer rapidly lost support from his own party—at least 70 of Labour’s 403 MPs, including key aides, no longer backed him (02:44).
  • Starmer had hung on due to the absence of a credible leadership challenger. That changed when Andy Burnham, popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, won a parliamentary seat in a by-election, becoming a viable successor (03:40).
  • "There had to be this kind of orchestration going on behind the scenes to get Andy Burnham into Parliament where he could mount a leadership challenge. ... Starmer has been governing as usual while a coup is emerging in the background." — Zoe Grunewald (03:40)

• Mood Shift:

  • Once Burnham was in place, party support swung decisively away from Starmer. Over the weekend, recognizing the “herd was moving,” Starmer decided it was time to step down (04:28).

Andy Burnham’s Rapid Rise

• Attributes and Appeal:

  • Burnham is seen as a figure of stability, charismatic and “a good communicator” who contrasts sharply with Starmer’s reserved persona (05:00).
  • "There's an old joke...a Blairite, Brownite, and Corbynite walk into a bar and the barman says, 'Hi, Andy, what are you having?' Because...he has given his loyalty to a lot of Labour leaders with different views." — Zoe Grunewald (05:00)
  • Burnham’s popularity stems from tangible accomplishments as Mayor, such as revamping Manchester’s bus network.

• Possible ‘Coronation’:

  • The leadership selection is on a fast track (nominations open July 9-16); with rivals backing Burnham, he may become PM unopposed (06:51).
  • Legitimacy concerns exist: “Nobody voted ... the public did not vote for this man as Prime Minister. So either way, there are problems for Andy Burnham and for the process." — Zoe Grunewald (07:55)

Why Did Starmer’s Government Unravel?

• Policy Missteps and Disunity:
  • Starmer’s government began with an overly cautious manifesto, ruling out tax hikes on working people, limiting room for maneuver (08:51).
  • Unpopular decisions followed: attempts to cut winter fuel payments for pensioners and refusal to withdraw the two-child benefit cap triggered outrage and revolt among Labour MPs (09:22).
  • Frequent U-turns undermined government authority, and Starmer’s shift to the right (especially on immigration, welfare, and trans rights) alienated core supporters (10:36).
  • Critical lapse: Appointed Peter Mandelson (“even though he knew about [Mandelson’s] links to Jeffrey Epstein”), causing a collapse in support and catalyzing Starmer’s exit (11:04).

Is Britain Ungovernable?

• Underlying Factors:
  • UK not strictly ungovernable, but faces exceptional headwinds. Austerity hollowed out public services over 14 years; Brexit’s effects undermined stability and identity (12:59).
  • "If you look at those Prime Ministers who have gone over the past 10 years, all of their departures have been related to Brexit in some way." — Zoe Grunewald (13:18)
  • Risk-averse economic policy, unhelpful media ecosystem, and a right-leaning, drama-fueled press hinder serious, long-term policymaking (14:29).
  • Social media increases pressure for rapid political response and dramatizes every event.

The Rise of the Right and Labour’s Dilemma

• Reform UK’s Populist Surge:
  • Right-wing Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, capitalizes on discontent, polling consistently at 25–30% (17:04).
  • Labour’s attempts to recapture disaffected “heartland” voters (often in the North and Midlands) have alienated left-leaning supporters, who drift to the Liberal Democrats or Greens (18:40).
  • "Labour are losing far more votes on its left flank to other parties like the Liberal Democrats or the Green Party." — Zoe Grunewald (18:55)

Economic Pain and Political Instability

• Cost of Living Crisis:
  • Top concerns for UK voters: cost of living and immigration—often intertwined (19:04).
  • “We've had stagnant wages, ... rapidly rising house prices, you have a whole generation of young people locked out. ... For a lot of people, it actually is more cost effective to be on disability benefits than it would be to be in work.” — Zoe Grunewald (19:04)
  • Global events continually disrupt government attempts to deliver growth; inflation and high housing costs drive widespread resentment.

Burnham’s Next Steps—and the Risks Ahead

• Election Timing Uncertainty:
  • If Burnham becomes PM, his choices: maintain existing policies without a new election (raising legitimacy issues), or propose major changes requiring a mandate (21:56).
  • While Reform UK polls well, it has underperformed in recent by-elections—suggesting a “stop-Farage” coalition is stronger than headline numbers imply (22:51).
  • “It's a very risky game,” and only a new, more trusted Labour figurehead may hold the anti-populist coalition together.

Voter Disengagement and Systemic Questions

• Political Engagement Drops:
  • The 2024 UK general election had the lowest turnout in 20 years (24:03).
  • Many Reform UK supporters are not motivated by ideology but by desire to “tear everything down”—a protest vote born of profound disillusionment (24:25).
  • “There is this real feeling that something is broken here and nobody really knows how to fix it.” — Zoe Grunewald (24:50)
  • Growing calls for constitutional or electoral reform (e.g., moving away from first-past-the-post) as voters no longer believe their voice counts.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Larry the cat that lives at 10 Downing has remained there for all six of these prime Ministers." — Jamie Poisson (01:10)
• “There had to be this kind of orchestration going on behind the scenes to get Andy Burnham into Parliament where he could mount a leadership challenge.” — Zoe Grunewald (03:40)
• “He just looks kind of diametrically opposed to the Keir Starmer that voters have come to dislike.” — Zoe Grunewald (05:38)
• “Do I think Britain is ungovernable? No. ... But I think if you look at a lot of the issues this country faces ... the damage that [Brexit] is still continuing to do to the UK, not just its economy, but how it's changed our conversations about national identity, our place in the world. ... That is a whole podcast in itself.” — Zoe Grunewald (13:10 – 13:54)
• "Reform have put everything they can into these three by elections and not once have they got close to winning. ... The coalition of voters who want to stop reform is larger than those who do want to vote reform in." — Zoe Grunewald (22:51)
• "There is this real feeling that something is broken here and nobody really knows how to fix it ... Trust feels broken, people feel disillusioned, they feel like things are getting worse." — Zoe Grunewald (25:13)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:44] — Zoe Grunewald explains the Labour coup and Burnham's parliamentary entry
• [04:28] — Starmer realizes the party has definitively moved on
• [05:00] — Burnham’s appeal and the “three Labour leaders in a bar” joke
• [06:51] — Burnham poised for possible ‘coronation’ as new leader
• [08:51] — Dissecting Starmer’s rapid loss of public (69% disapproval) and internal support
• [11:04] — Mandelson-Epstein scandal as Starmer’s final blow
• [12:59] — Is Britain ungovernable? Deep-dive into systemic challenges
• [13:18] — Brexit and its continuing legacy behind every recent PM downfall
• [17:04] — The right-wing Reform UK party and Farage’s ongoing media impact
• [19:04] — Cost of living pressures and the link to public anger on immigration
• [21:56] — Prospects and perils if Burnham assumes power; election scenario analysis
• [24:03] — Political apathy, low voter turnout, and the roots of protest voting
• [25:13] — Constitutional reform as a possible solution for re-engaging voters

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Closing Thoughts

Through witty observations and astute analysis, this episode underscores the exceptional volatility at the heart of British politics—rooted in policy failures, Brexit aftershocks, economic malaise, and a restless electorate. While the UK’s system is not "ungovernable," it is at a crossroads, with reform, both in politics and governance, seemingly unavoidable.

"There is this real feeling that something is broken here and nobody really knows how to fix it."
— Zoe Grunewald (25:13)

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Transcript

[Podcast Announcer]

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[Jamie Poisson]

Hey everyone, I'm Jamie Poisson. After a weekend of speculation, the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer appeared on the steps of 10 Downing street on Monday and announced that he would be stepping down.

[Keir Starmer]

The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question and I accept that answer with good grace.

[Jamie Poisson]

He is now the sixth British prime minister to resign in the last 10 years. To jog your memory, he joins the likes of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, who actually couldn't even outlast a head of lettuce in a blonde wig, and Rishi Sunak. To put it into perspective, Larry the cat that lives at 10 Downing has remained there for all six of these prime Ministers. Many hoped Starmer would put an end to the pattern after he won a majority government with the Labour Party in a landslide just two years ago. The revolving door of PMs begs the question, is the UK ungovernable? To talk about how Britain found themselves here and the conditions that have made it so hard for the country to hold on to a Prime Minister, I'm joined again by Zoe Grunewald, a freelance journalist and regular panelist on the podcast oh God, what now? Zoe. Hey, thanks for coming on.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Hello. Thank you for having me.

[Jamie Poisson]

It's nice to see you. It's good to have you back on the show. Let's get straight into what is, what is even going on here. I know that Keir Starmer has been on this trajectory for some time, but I've seen the events of the last few days kind of described as like a really big mood shift within the government. And Starmer had said before that he wouldn't step down and would take on any leadership challenge. How did things change so drastically over the last few days? Just take me through the lead up to his announcement.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Yeah, so you're absolutely right. The last six months have been very difficult for Keir Starmer. He's been hemorrhaging support amongst his party as of a few Minutes ago, out of 403, three Labour MPs, there are at least 70 now who no longer back the PM, including five ministerial aides. And actually, even before that, he was struggling to keep a lot of his backbenchers on side. But the specific thing that was stopping backbenchers from moving against him or the party from moving against him was the lack of another candidate. There are a couple of people who sort of, you know, their name was in circulation that they might want to take over from Keir Starmer. But there were various issues there. They couldn't gather the support of their party or their colleagues or they had various other issues. One of these particular candidates was Andy Burnham, who was the mayor of Greater Manchester. Now his. He had a lot of support in the party. The problem was he wasn't an mp, so he couldn't actually go for the leadership. So there had to be this kind of orchestration going on behind the scenes to get Andy Burnham into Parliament where he could mount a leadership challenge. And it's been this very surreal situation where everybody knows this is what's been going on. Kirsten Summer has been governing as usual, while a coup is emerging in the background. And, of course, last week we finally had this by election in Makerfield, which is in the north of England, where Andy Burnham won the seat and has become an mp. He's been sworn in today.

[Keir Starmer]

Everyone knows that politics isn't working. Everyone can feel that the country isn't where it should be. Tonight could just could be the turning

[Zoe Grunewald]

point that makes his path to a leadership election very, very clear. And I think over the weekend, Keir Starmer did some soul searching, some talking to his colleagues, and he realized that actually, with Andy Burnham in Parliament, there was no route to Keir Starmer being able to continue on as Prime Minister. The herd was moving, it was stampeding. They had their next candidate and therefore he had decided today it's better to stand aside and tell me more about

[Jamie Poisson]

why people like Andy Burnham so much as an alternative to Keir Starmer.

[Zoe Grunewald]

So Burnham's been around for quite a long time. He served under Tony Blair. He's seen as a figure of stability in a Labour Party that has gone through several iterations in the past 20 years. And actually, you could argue that no one really knows what the true Andy Burnham is, because he's been. There's an old joke, and I hate to repeat it, but your listeners might not have heard it before. It's definitely done the rounds a lot in the UK now, but it's that a Blairite, a Brownite and a Corbynite walking to a bar and the barman says, hi, Andy, what are you having? Because the point is, he has been. Has given his loyalty to a lot of Labour leaders with different views. But the reason people like Andy Burnham now is because he's been mayor of Greater Manchester and he's been really popular in that role. He's delivered a lot of things to the people of Manchester. People talk a lot about the bus network particularly. He's got this kind of, you know, he's a good communicator, he's charismatic. You often see him with a pint in his hand. He has a laugh. And I think he just looks kind of diametrically opposed to the Keir Starmer that voters have come to dislike. Much more buttoned up. You never really see the real Keir Starmer. They don't trust him because they don't know who he is. So I think that is why Andy Burnham has really emerged as a potential front runner to succeed Keir Starmer.

[Jamie Poisson]

And is it right for me to say that this is already kind of shaping up as like a coronation of sorts, Like Andy Burnham's off to, I think, a pretty good start. There are already MPs that are throwing their support behind him. I also will just note that I saw this picture of him in the back of a car that is making the rounds like a tabloid photo, and usually the British press runs terrible photos of people in backs of cars and he looks fine, so that's probably a plus too.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Yeah, it does look like it probably will be a coronation. Things can change, you never know. British politics moves in strange ways, but. But it's essentially going to be a very quick process. So nominations to replace Keir Starmer open on the 9th of July, and they close when Parliament goes into summer recess on the 16th. If there's no challenger to Andy Burnham, and at the minute it doesn't look like there will be one, he could be coronated very quickly after that as the new Labour leader. If there is a contest, it'll be the 1st of September, which is when we'll have the results. But it is worth noting that the other name that was flying around as someone who potentially would move against Keir Starmer was Wes Streeting, who served as Health Secretary. He has today said he would back Andy Burnham. So it does look like, at the moment there aren't really a lot of people who want to go against Andy Burnham. That is because he's popular. A lot of people are worried about what it would look like for the party if they started having an open leadership contest while in government. You know, it's a lot of mudslinging. It's not great for the country. So it does look like it could be a coronation that obviously has its own drawbacks. You will then get the question of legitimacy. Nobody voted. You know, the public did not vote for this man to be Prime Minister. So either way, there are problems for Andy Burnham and for the process. But as we speak now at the minute, it does look like he could be our next Prime Minister very soon.

[Jamie Poisson]

You did a bit of this before, but just help me understand a bit more how things soured so much for Keir Starmer. Like a Yuga poll last month reported 69 of people disapproved of him. That's an enormous number. This is a guy who won in a landslide in 2024. So, like, you know, what are the big beats that to help people understand? Yeah.

[Zoe Grunewald]

So I think this is going to be a question that there will be a lot of debate on and I think ultimately a lot of people will conclude that some of this intense dislike towards Keir Starmer is probably slightly unjustified. There has been a catalogue of errors that this government have made from the very start. And actually, you could argue even before they got elected, their manifesto was so cautious, they ruled out any kind of tax rises on working people.

[Keir Starmer]

I want taxes to come down for working people. They've been really clobbered time and time again.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Now that is a vote winner. But is it going to win you favors in government when public services are really, really struggling and people expect more from their public services? So they already tied themselves into a knot with that. And then there were just lots of issues with Keir Starmer's communication. So one of the first policies this government announced was that they were going to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Now this is a blanket payment that all pensioners in the UK receive. It just went down very, very badly, as you can imagine. It was exactly the sort of thing people thought a center left government should not be doing. They also refused initially to withdraw the 2 child benefit cap, which is, you know, particular welfare measure that means people with more than two children stop receiving a certain amount of benefit. Again, MPs in the party felt that this wasn't something that the Labour government should be holding onto. There were a number of U turns, so eventually they u turned on winter fuel, they u turned on the 2 child benefit cap. But not having not without having already punished MPs in the party for voting against the government on certain things. There was also an enormous backbench rebellion over welfare reform.

[Keir Starmer]

Those government plans, though, have hit a major hurdle.

[Podcast Announcer]

An amendment to effectively block the bill signed by more than one hundred and 20 Labour MPs.

[Zoe Grunewald]

This government under Keir Starmer has consistently pivoted to the right on social issues like immigration or trans rights.

[Keir Starmer]

Today we publish a white paper on immigration, a strategy absolutely central to my plan for change that will finally take back control of our borders and close the book on a squalid chapter for our politics, our economy and our country.

[Zoe Grunewald]

And that is the sort of thing that has isolated quite a lot of their core vote. And then of course you have this insurgent right wing party, which is Reform uk, which has been nibbling at some of the Labour vote in the heartlands. So basically labor has been alienating its voters on the left and losing its voters on the right. And that's when you have MPs really panicking about whether they're going to keep their seats at the next election. And then it all came to a head when the Prime Minister appointed Peter Mandelson as his ambassador in the us even though he knew about his links to Jeffrey Epstein. And that became the thing that just started to really destroy Keir Starmer's support across the country and in his party. It was this question of how good is this man's judgment if he knew about this relationship, but he still thought he was worth having as his ambassador.

[Jamie Poisson]

Right, right. And just for people listening, there's now a criminal investigation right. Into these allegations of misconduct. Mandelson is essentially being accused of leaking sensitive info to EPSTEIN Back in 2009, 2010. Right. With Starmer's resignation, that's now six different prime ministers for the UK in the last 10 years. There could be seven soon. Three of them were just in one year, 2022. It's a really pretty remarkable turnover rate for the top job in the country. You know, not to brag here in Canada we've had two. We've had two in that time.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Yeah, good for you guys.

[Jamie Poisson]

I guess so. I don't know. But of course this has like led to a lot of commentary, as you know, on whether Britain itself is ungovernable. And I just like, what do you think of that? Like, what do you make of this, that notion?

[Zoe Grunewald]

So I think it's certainly an interesting question. Do I think Britain is ungovernable? No. Do I think it requires a leader who is prepared to be brave and make difficult decisions that might not necessarily be popular but will pay off in the long term. Yes, I think if you look at a lot of the issues this country faces, you know, we had 14 years of austerity under Conservative governments which basically hollowed out our public services. We had a successive governments that refused to invest while borrowing rates were really low. And then we left the eu. Brexit did a huge amount of damage to our economy. And actually on the 23rd of June tomorrow, as we're recording, that is the 10 year anniversary since Britain voted to leave the EU. It's remarkable that another Prime Minister has left within one day of this anniversary. Because actually if you look at those Prime Ministers who have gone over the past 10 years, all of their departures have been related to Brexit in some way. The damage that that is still continuing to do to the uk, not just its economy, but how it's changed our conversations about national identity, our place in the world, how we relate to one another. You know, that is a whole podcast in itself. It's really fascinating. But I think, yeah, this idea of governability, there are so many issues facing any Prime Minister, not just our poor economic outlook, not just the bond markets and how they react to political decisions, which makes governments very risk averse to their kind of tax and spend plans. But also, you know, as you are in Canada, social media had put so much pressure on governments to respond much faster and much quicker and it doesn't really allow politicians to prioritize that long term boring decision making that needs to happen for countries to be prosperous. And also in this country, we have a really powerful media ecosystem that is tilted to the right and has been very, very critical of Prime Ministers and has also been very keen and you know, loves to write about and publicize political news. So that appetite for sort of political drama has been, has been really pressing. And I say that as someone who has been a reporter in Parliament, you know, I've reported on politics for quite a long time now. There is a real desire for trying to make it dramatic and exciting and sexy and I think that makes it very difficult for serious policymakers to grapple with the deep, less interesting parts of this country. Par le tu francais hablas espanol? Parl italiano.

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[Jamie Poisson]

Not so friendly reminder that no one

[Zoe Grunewald]

who's actually good at their job is the office bully, like at all.

[Jamie Poisson]

But we can handle that.

[Zoe Grunewald]

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[Jamie Poisson]

for getting ahead in your career without losing your mind. Listen to Clock in with Emily Durham

[Zoe Grunewald]

wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jamie Poisson]

You mentioned before that the the right had really been kind of nibbling at the left's voter base and just like tell me more about how that's been happening.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Yeah, so we have the rise of Reform UK here, which is this kind of insurgent right wing party, populist right wing party headed up by Nigel Farage who again your listeners may know, he was very much kind of the architect, one of the key aces of the Brexit campaign back in 2016, the Vote Leave campaign he since established created his new political party, Reform uk, which he heads up. They have been capturing media attention. They are consistently topping the polls around sort of 25 to 30% of the vote. Now that's key because that's less than 1 in 3 voters. It's not an overwhelming majority, but they've definitely been capturing attention. And you know, Nigel Farage is one of those figures where people love to talk about him and know what he's doing. And this particular Labour government under Keir Starmer have been really desperate to try and win back some of those voters. They're losing in these kind of traditional labor heartlands, often parts of the country in sort of the north and the Midlands that are de industrialized, you know, they might be slightly poorer where they're seeing that loss of votes that, that sort of traditional Labour vote going to reform. Now having said that, actually the evidence is that Labour are losing far more votes on its left flank to other parties like the Liberal Democrats or the Green Party. But this particular Labour government under Keir Starmer and his former advisors, particularly his advisor Morgan McSweeney, just were very much focused on these, they kind of call them hero voters, these voters in these labor heartlands that they want to win back, they were really pushing on anti immigration policies, nothing too radical on tax and spend, really trying to win back those voters that sit more on the right. But obviously that has done them immense damage on the left as well.

[Jamie Poisson]

You know and, and just, you know, you mentioned before the cost of living issues, like, just, just how pressing is that for, for people right now?

[Zoe Grunewald]

I think that really is the key issue. If you ask voters in the UK what their priorities are, it is cost of living or immigration. But often if you drill into why people care about immigration so much and, you know, it's a very complex issue, but immigration numbers now are coming down quite rapidly. In the uk, we had this very visceral issue of the small boats issue. So after we left the eu, we got more and more irregular migrants coming over on dinghies. And obviously you can imagine those photos, they're very visceral. People really saw them and felt, oh, we can't protect our borders, this is getting out of control. So immigration has been a really live issue. But if you ask voters why they care about immigration, it's a fairness issue. They feel like they're working really hard and not getting the pay that they thought they'd get or the life they thought they get. And then they see pictures of people coming over to the UK and they think that's not fair. So really, when you drill into it, a lot of the time it's also an economic issue as well. And, you know, here in the uk, we've had stagnant wages, we've had really rapidly rising house prices, you have a whole generation of young people locked out. We have more and more people on sickness benefits because work doesn't pay very well for a lot of people. And we've got into a sort of ridiculous situation now where for a lot of people, it actually is more cost effective to be on disability benefits than it would be to be in work, because their work won't implement disability friendly procedures. And there's just a whole mess of things going on with our economy. That means that people are feeling really hard done by. And of course, when you add in Brexit, the increased cost that's put on businesses leaving, you know, the single market, all of it has added up to this picture where there is this real economic mess. And every time the Chancellor has tried to fiddle with various levers to try and give herself more headroom, it's been wiped out by whatever is happening in Iran or the Middle east or any geopolitical issue. So it's been very, very difficult for this government to generate any growth that is actually being felt by people. And inflation keeps going up, people keep feeling the cost of living, housing costs. That has created a very unhappy discontent electorate that feels like it's working harder for Less,

[Jamie Poisson]

You know, let's say Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, like, there's no real challengers, like, what. What happens next? Is he going to then take a stab at governing or will he call an election and suddenly, are we looking at, like a potential Nigel Farage Prime Minister, you know, in 2027, like. Like, how could this.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Yeah. So these are the really interesting questions because on the one hand, Andy Burnham might become Prime Minister and he might say, I'm not going to do anything that wasn't already in the manifesto, so therefore we don't need a general election. But then you could kind of say, well, what's the point? Yes, he might be a better communicator than Keir Starmer, but as I've just laid out, a lot of these issues are far deeper than Keir Starmer's communication style. You actually need a leader who's going to do some radical things, whether it's to tax and spend or whatever, to try and. Try and get people feeling happier and better off. Or he might say, actually, I do want to do something radical, I want to put up taxes or I want to borrow more, in which case you're going to get a lot of criticism from people saying, well, you need to hold a general election because people didn't vote for that, you don't have a mandate date. So that becomes very difficult. Now, if there's a general election in six months time, the question of would reform get in is a really interesting one. They do consistently perform well in the polls, but actually we've had three by elections here in the uk, where they've been actual specific constituencies have needed to vote for a new mp. Reform have put everything they can into these three by elections and not once have they got close to winning. And they've all been slightly different. They've all been target seats. There are reasons why Reform could have won there, but actually, what I think you're seeing is the coalition of voters who want to stop reform is larger than those who do want to vote reform in. So, yes, reform could do well. There's definitely still a path to number 10 for Nigel Farage, especially if that vote on the left is split, you know, reform get through the middle. But I don't think it's as simple as Nigel Farage has got this sewn up and he's heading to Downing Street. And I think the optimism in the Labour Party is if they can just give voters who were flocked, you know, who were departing labor, whether to go to the Greens of reform a reason to Trust the party kids. Say we've got a new figurehead, we've got something. Just trust us, stay with us, we'll take you on this journey. Better than the previous leader did. They might be able to keep enough of that support to keep Nigel Farage out, but it's a very risky game.

[Jamie Poisson]

You know, Zoe, I'm curious, like, all of this political instability and drama, what has it done to political engagement? You know, I know in the last election in 2024, you guys had the lowest voter turnout in 20 years, right? And, like, how, how is this all impacting how people are engaging with politics?

[Zoe Grunewald]

So people are really fed up. You're right. Turnout is historically really low. People talk about disengaging and actually a lot of the support for Reform UK is driven by these voters who just want to kick the establishment. There's been some really interesting polling done because obviously reform is a right. It's a, you know, it's a pretty hard right party. It's got very right wing views on immigration, you know, withdrawing the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights, things like that. Things that are quite alarming to a lot of voters. If you drill into reform support, there's actually a real split as to whether voters who are supporting reform support those specific policies. Actually, a lot of it is driven by this idea of, I just kind of want to vote for a party that's going to tear everything down because that's how unhappy I am. And I think a lot of voters are not happy with Keir Starmer, but they're also very distressed about the idea that we are changing prime ministers again. And I think there is this real feeling that something is broken here and nobody really knows how to fix it. And I think it's interesting that increasingly there are conversations about maybe the answer is something like constitutional reform, electoral reform, where you make people feel like if you change the voting system, their vote will have more of a say. And that was quite a sort of niche conversation about 10 years ago. First passed the post, which we have, as our voting system is supposed to produce stable governments, it clearly isn't doing that. So I wonder, my prediction would be more and more, as we get this increasingly unhappy electorate, as we get leaders increasingly struggle to get anything through even with a mandate, do we actually have to look at how the system works, how we vote people in, how we share power, how we make voters feel like they're a part of the system? But without that, I think it's very, very difficult. Trust feels broken, people feel disillusioned they feel like things are getting worse. You know, just take immigration as an example. Immigration numbers are coming down. Most voters still think immigration numbers are going up. People just don't trust in the system. And I think that is a very difficult job for any leader, especially one who will come in without a mandate from the public.

[Jamie Poisson]

That was really interesting. Zoe, thank you so much for this. This. It is such a pleasure always to have you on.

[Zoe Grunewald]

Thank you so much.

[Jamie Poisson]

All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

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