Front Burner — Is Trump Coming for Canada’s Critical Minerals?

Date: February 20, 2025
Host: Jayme Poisson (CBC)
Guest: Jacob Lorinc (Mining Reporter, Bloomberg)

Overview

This episode of Front Burner explores the intensifying global competition for critical minerals—metals vital for modern technology and energy, such as nickel, lithium, and rare earth elements. Host Jayme Poisson and guest Jacob Lorinc discuss how U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is using aggressive foreign policy—trade wars, annexation threats, and high-stakes negotiations—to secure access to these resources. They focus on Canada’s mineral wealth, Trump’s fixation on Canada and Greenland, the implications for U.S.-Canada relations, and the geopolitical context with China dominating much of the global supply chain.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Critical Minerals: The New Oil

• Context and Importance

  • The shift from fossil fuels to minerals as the backbone of the next industrial and technological wave.
  • These minerals power everything from cell phones to electric vehicles (EVs) and are necessary for artificial intelligence, military hardware, and green energy infrastructure.

• Quote:

  “What’s happening now is effectively the same thing [as the oil rush], but now looking for metals and minerals instead of oil and gas, because all of this stuff is so incredibly important for modern technology.” — Jacob Lorinc [02:32]

2. China’s Dominance in Critical Minerals

• Current Status:

  • China extracts over 60% of rare earths and processes up to 90% of global supply.
  • Even Canada’s mined raw lithium often goes to China for processing due to its lack of domestic refining capacity.
  • This gives China immense geopolitical leverage.

• Quote:

  “China also owns the vast majority of the processing and refining of these materials… That gives its chief adversary quite a bit of geopolitical leverage.” — Jacob Lorinc [03:39]

3. Canada's Critical Mineral Landscape

• Resource Wealth:

  • Canada has about three dozen critical minerals essential to modern tech. Major deposits include lithium and graphite (Quebec), nickel (Ontario), potash and uranium (Prairies), and copper (BC).
  • Despite abundance, many deposits are in remote, hard-to-access areas.

• Challenges:

  • Previously rich, now-depleted deposits (e.g., Sudbury’s nickel).
  • Environmental and Indigenous rights considerations slow down permitting and development.
  • Infrastructure gaps and regulatory hurdles.

• Quote:

  “[Some deposits] are in incredibly remote areas where it’s just really hard to get to… We’re also, I think, far more considerate of other issues around mining… which just means that sometimes these deposits are either taking a very, very long time to permit and develop, or they’re never being developed at all.” — Jacob Lorinc [06:54]

4. The Trump Administration’s Approach to Canada

• Annexation Pressure and Tariffs:

  • Trump’s threats to make Canada the “51st state” and increased tariffs are seen as tactics to gain leverage over Canada’s critical minerals.

• Canadian Political Response:

  • Prime Minister Mark Carney and other officials suggest U.S. interest in critical minerals underpins these aggressive moves.

• Alliance Talk:

  • Canadian officials are proposing a new minerals/energy partnership with the U.S., but details remain vague.
  • There are calls for a more formal “Critical Minerals Security Alliance” to compete with China, but past efforts have moved slowly.

• Quote:

  “[Trudeau’s comment] was maybe the first acknowledgement from the Trudeau administration that Trump was a bit more serious than perhaps they’d led onto.” — Jacob Lorinc [05:37]

5. Existing U.S.-Canada Mineral Cooperation

• Background:

  • Canada is a major supplier of potash, uranium, copper, and nickel to the U.S., with several existing cross-border supply chains.
  • Biden’s administration had set up funds and incentives for joint development, but progress is slow and dependent on commodity markets.

• Quote:

  “Canada supplies the U.S. with the majority of its potash, uranium, a lot of its copper, a lot of its nickel… This alliance already exists.” — Jacob Lorinc [11:01]

6. Greenland: Another Focus of U.S. Ambitions

• Trump & Greenland:

  • Trump has previously suggested buying Greenland and renewed interest recently (including a visit by Don Jr.).
  • Greenland holds vital but undeveloped rare earth deposits.
  • However, production would require massive investment and decades-long development.

• Industry Reality:

  • “If you suggest… that they try digging for rare earths in Greenland, even under a Trump annexation regime, they’re going to laugh you out of the room.” — Jacob Lorinc [15:23]

7. Ukraine’s Minerals and the U.S.

• Trump’s Demands:

  • Proposed that the U.S. receives 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for aid.

• Geological Reality:

  • Ukraine has rare earths, but not in easily mineable, high-concentration forms; economic mining is highly questionable.
  • Even if acquired, U.S. lacks necessary refining capacity—would still rely on China.

• Quote:

  “The US does not have the processing and refining capacity to actually do anything with this stuff… The actual reshaping of supply chains to suit your geopolitical needs is profoundly more complicated.” — Jacob Lorinc [17:57]

8. How China Got Ahead

• Historical Outsourcing:

  • 20-30 years ago, U.S. and Western countries chose to outsource “dirty” mining/processing to China due to environmental and social concerns.
  • China’s state-owned enterprises took financial risks and losses to build dominance in mining and processing.

• Quote:

  “It was something that the US just didn’t really want to do much of… And so in that period of time, especially in the early 2000s, as China was really becoming a dominant global superpower, it seized on this opportunity to take losses on big risky projects.” — Jacob Lorinc [20:30]

9. Can the West Catch Up?

• Herculean Challenge:

  • Jacob Lorinc is skeptical; even with major efforts, catching up to China’s head start in mining and refining will likely take decades.

• Environmental/Labor Advantages:

  • Producing minerals domestically in Canada/U.S. could be more ethical and environmentally sound compared to current low-standard production (e.g., Indonesia).

• Quote:

  “Catching up is a somewhat Herculean ambition that…will take decades.” — Jacob Lorinc [24:39]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I suggest that not only does the Trump administration know how many critical minerals we have, but that may even be why they keep talking about absorbing us and making us the 51st state.” — Prime Minister Mark Carney (quoted by Jayme Poisson) [05:03]
• “The Trump administration is clearly very alive to this… I’m sure that’s a part of their focus when they’re looking at Greenland, or Canada, or the Ukraine for that matter.” — Jacob Lorinc [15:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:42 — Episode intro: The big question—What motivates Trump’s aggressive new foreign policy?
• 02:19 — Why the global rush for critical minerals is intensifying
• 03:39 — How China dominates the global minerals supply
• 05:53 — Overview of Canada’s mineral resources
• 06:54 — Why Canada is slow to develop its resources (geography & social responsibility)
• 08:43 — Canadian attempts to form a minerals partnership/alliance with the U.S.
• 11:01 — Existing cross-border mineral trade and past U.S.-Canada cooperation
• 12:36 — Greenland and U.S. ambitions for Arctic minerals
• 15:30 — The complexity and impracticality of rapid mineral exploitation in Greenland
• 16:24 — Ukraine’s minerals in U.S.-Russia negotiations—reality check
• 18:27 — How much Trump & team actually care about critical minerals
• 20:24 — How and why China cornered the market
• 23:27 — Can Canada and the U.S. ever catch up? Advantages, limits, and timeline

Concluding Thoughts

Jayme Poisson and Jacob Lorinc provide a nuanced, reality-based analysis of the global critical minerals race. They highlight the complex mix of geopolitics, economics, environmental responsibility, and decades of policy decisions that shape today’s scramble. While U.S. moves under Trump might appear aggressive and even theatrical, the underlying issue of mineral supply security—and Chinese dominance—remains crucial for the future of both American and Canadian strategic interests. But the path to self-sufficiency or catching up with China is daunting, requiring patience and, potentially, a generational effort.