Front Burner – “Open Source Intelligence Cowboys ‘Monitoring’ Iran”
Date: March 23, 2026
Host: Jayme Poisson (CBC)
Guest: Tyler McBrien (Managing Editor, Lawfare)
Episode Overview
In this episode, Jayme Poisson speaks with Tyler McBrien—author, editor, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) observer—about the proliferation of amateur open-source intelligence “cowboys” tracking and interpreting military developments around Iran. The discussion unpacks the origins of the OSINT movement, the tools and dashboards now in use, the motivations and accuracy of these new actors, their impact on journalism and public understanding, and the risks posed when situation-monitoring turns into both a spectacle and a betting game.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Rise and Roots of OSINT
- Inflection Point: The 2009 Green Revolution in Iran catalyzed the rise of digital OSINT, with citizens circumventing official restrictions by sharing firsthand media online.
- Tyler traces OSINT’s lineage even further back—to WWII-era intelligence from public sources—but stresses the digital leap around 2009 was transformative due to widespread smartphones and social media ([03:02]).
- Democratization and Digitization:
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“Analog OSINT” has always existed, but the digital age turned it into a mass, participatory practice, with ordinary people able to access and analyze vast streams of open data ([03:49], [04:02]):
"These technological leaps have really enabled the field of OSINT to explode in utility, in sophistication."
– Tyler McBrien [04:02]
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2. OSINT in Action—For Good and...For Fun
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Creative Approaches:
- Example: During the 2024 Hurricane Beryl blackout in Texas, “Barbecue Brian” used real-time updates from Whataburger to map power outages when the utility provided none [05:52].
- Reference to the “Waffle House Index” as similarly inventive “proxy” OSINT [05:52].
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False Correlations and Overreach:
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Notable for critique is the “Pentagon Pizza Tracker,” which claims to see signs of military planning based on pizza restaurant traffic—a method filled with false positives and logical holes ([07:28]).
“It’s fun and kind of kitschy, but people elevate it as these amazing, like, tea leaves that you can read when really it’s just measuring an uptick in traffic at this one pizza place near Arlington, Virginia.”
– Tyler McBrien [08:45]
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3. OSINT Cowboys and the Spectacle of Monitoring
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Dashboard Proliferation:
- A new wave sees self-styled “OSINT cowboys” using AI-coded dashboards mimicking intelligence-agency interfaces (e.g., “Bloomberg terminal for war”)—combining tickers, maps, newsfeeds, and sometimes oddities like pizza delivery data ([10:01]).
- While visually compelling, these dashboards often add “noise,” making it harder to discern credible analysis. However, specialists who focus on specific beats (e.g., dedicated flight trackers) remain more trustworthy ([10:01]).
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Impact & Utility:
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Even if amateur reports are inaccurate in detail, they often flag sudden events that help journalists spot stories early. McBrien cites cases where newsroom editors task reporters to follow up based on OSINT tweets ([12:09]).
“What they’re doing though, is flagging big movements or flagging situations that a journalist with background knowledge should look into more.”
– Tyler McBrien [12:28]
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4. Why the Obsession? Motivations for Civilian Monitoring
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Control in Chaos:
- In a world awash with alarming headlines, engaging in OSINT offers a sense of control or mastery over complex, frightening events ([14:33]).
- The illusion of “democratized surveillance” is a powerful draw ([14:33]).
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Betting and Gamification:
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Platforms like Polymarket now blend real-time OSINT with prediction markets, letting users place bets on world events within speculator-oriented venues, sometimes even in bars branded for “situation monitoring” ([16:05]).
"With more inputs, more data, they make better informed bets and therefore make more money. And so that's a very material reason, I think, for some of these dashboards."
– Tyler McBrien [15:38]
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5. Risks: Misinformation and the Commodification of Monitoring
- Incentives for Speed over Accuracy:
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The blending of OSINT and betting raises the risk that rapid, profitable speculation trumps careful verification—potentially flooding the public sphere with misinformation ([16:55]).
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Example: A researcher altered the Ukraine conflict map used by a prediction market to win a bet, then changed it back, illustrating how OSINT artifacts can be manipulated for financial gain ([18:00]).
“If the goal is just to win a bet, you could change reality essentially by changing what’s seen as true to advantage your position in the market.”
– Tyler McBrien [18:49]
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6. Challenges to OSINT—Information Blackouts and Censorship
- Satellite Imagery Restrictions:
- Companies like Planet Labs are limiting access to high-res imagery over conflict zones (e.g., Iran and Israel), making professional and amateur OSINT more difficult ([20:17]).
- Censorship further restricts on-the-ground footage, but skilled analysts still uncover critical details—e.g., Bellingcat verified a missile strike on an Iranian girls' school by geolocating video and missile fragments ([20:17]).
7. OSINT as Both Tool and Target of the State
- Government Awareness:
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The US administration is acutely aware it is being watched by both professional and amateur OSINTers, sometimes using this scrutiny strategically (e.g., to check if their decoys are working) ([22:31]).
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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth even joked about ordering pizza to throw off pizza-based sleuths ([24:11]):
“Some Friday night, when you see a bunch of Domino’s orders, it might just be me on an app throwing the whole system off. So we keep everybody off balance. Trust me, we look at every indicator.”
– Pete Hegseth [24:18]
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8. The Big Picture: The Dangers of Detachment
- Remote Wars, Remote Understanding:
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As journalism contracts and monitoring shifts online, conflicts risk being seen only through “cold, hard data” rather than on-the-ground experience—further detached by the rise of “spectator sport” monitoring and betting ([25:30]).
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McBrien warns against OSINT replacing in-depth, contextualized journalism:
“One of my biggest worries is for Osint to be seen as something that could replace journalism...it’s contextualizing it. It’s pointing you in the direction of what’s important versus what’s not. It’s verifying.”
– Tyler McBrien [26:03]
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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the fundamental appeal of OSINT dashboards:
“It’s this democratization of surveillance that I think is illusory, but is, is appealing to people.”
– Tyler McBrien [14:45] -
On the temptation and danger of bets shaping what gets reported:
"People have a tendency to believe things that look good and look authoritative. And now anyone can make a very well designed, sharp looking dashboard that is believable just on sight.”
– Tyler McBrien [16:58] -
On the government’s awareness (and possible trolling) of OSINT watchers:
“Some Friday night, when you see a bunch of Domino’s orders, it might just be me on an app throwing the whole system off.”
– Pete Hegseth [24:18] -
On the risk of losing touch in war reporting:
“That remove becomes even more pernicious when people are betting on it...now it becomes a spectator sport where you have an active vested interest in the outcome of it. And, you know, that that changes the game as well.”
– Tyler McBrien [25:33]
Segment Timestamps (Key Moments)
- 00:37 – Episode intro: The challenge of monitoring the war in Iran, rise of OSINT
- 02:33 – The Green Revolution and the birth of modern OSINT
- 05:16 – Citizen sleuths: Hurricane blackouts and the Whataburger/Barbecue Brian story
- 07:28 – The “Pentagon Pizza Tracker” and dangers of casual OSINT
- 10:01 – The rise of AI-coded “vibe” dashboards and OSINT spectacle
- 12:09 – Where citizen OSINT helps journalism
- 14:33 – Why regular people are so hooked on real-time monitoring
- 16:05 – OSINT, prediction markets, and gamification
- 18:00 – How financial incentives corrupt data (Ukraine map manipulation)
- 20:17 – Censorship and access restraints: Satellite imagery in Iranian and Israeli wars
- 22:31 – The US government’s approach to being watched by OSINT
- 24:11 – Defense Secretary Hegseth’s pizza joke—official awareness and social feedback
- 25:30 – The risk of detachment: Losing the value of on-the-ground reporting
- 27:07 – Episode close
Takeaway
This episode of Front Burner underscores the double-edged sword of open-source intelligence: empowering the public and journalists with new tools for transparency, yet also opening the floodgates to amateur analysis, misinformation, monetization, and a potentially dangerous detachment from war’s human realities. While OSINT’s creative power and democratization are celebrated, this new era also demands fresh skepticism and rigorous verification—especially as “monitoring” becomes spectacle, and sometimes, just a game.