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Front Burner
Poilievre tries to turn the page
00:26:17
<p>The decisions of one Conservative MP to cross the floor, and another to resign have sparked a wider conversation about whether Pierre Poilievre should remain leader of the party.</p><p><br></p><p>Those moves also forced the Conservatives into their version of damage control, given the stories of intense pressure campaigns and disputed accounts of office screaming sessions.</p><p><br></p><p>Two conservatives joined host Jayme Poisson with their take on how Poilievre and his supporters are managing this latest crisis.</p><p><br></p><p>Fred DeLorey is the chair of Northstar Public Affairs. He was also former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s national campaign director in 2021. Kate Harrison is the vice-chair for Summa Strategies, a public affairs firm that specializes in government relations.</p><p><br></p><p>For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.cbc.ca/ra...
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- [00:00]
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- [00:31]
Kate Harrison
This is a CBC podcast.
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Jamie Poisson
Hey everybody, it's Jamie. On Monday, we did an episode about the decisions made by two Conservative MPs that blew up in Pierre Poliev's lap, smoking the party's plans to hammer the new liberal budget and forcing the conservatives into their version of damage control. Well, it's now been a week since Matt Gennarou said that he would resign and Chris d' Entremond join the Liberals. But the flames have not been put out. There remain stories of intense pressure campaigns, accounts of office screaming sessions and analysis that questions how badly all of this has wounded Polieb's political future. So today we wanted to bring on two conservatives to have a conversation about how Poliev and his supporters have been managing this latest crisis, how other conservatives are thinking about all of this, and whether they think he remains the right guy to lead the party. Fred DeLaure is the chair of Northstar Public Affairs. He was also former Conservative leader Erin O' Toole's national campaign director in 2021. And Kate Harrison is the vice chair for Summa Strategies, a public affairs firm that specializes in hello to you both. Thank you so much for coming onto the show.
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Kate Harrison
Hey Jamie, great to be here.
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Fred DeLaure
Yeah, Looking forward to the chat.
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Jamie Poisson
Me too. Okay, so I know as I mentioned, we saw the two major announcements last week, the resignation from politics of conservative Edmonton area MP Matt Genarou, The Edmonton MP says he told the party he was resigning his seat, writing in a statement, it was not an easy decision, but it is, I believe, the right one. And then the floor crossing of Nova Scotia MP Chris Dontermont to the Liberals.
- [02:29]
Chris Dontermont
Chris's decision to join the government caucus at this crucial moment for our country is exceptionally valuable and important.
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Jamie Poisson
There are rumors that Gennaroo was subject to an intense pressure campaign, but I think at this time we have a lot more tangible information around what happened with Don Trebant. So if, if you guys don't mind, I would like to focus on him with you off the top here. Don Tremont has said that the moment that really pushed him over the edge was being confronted by Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer and Party Whip Chris Warkinton in his office after news broke that he was considering crossing the floor. According to him, they barged in, pushed open the door, almost knocking over his assistance, and called him a snake. The party has a different account of this. They say that they acted very calmly and in a measured way. But, Kate, do you think that there was some immediate mishandling of the situation here?
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Kate Harrison
I think it is super fair to say that emotions are high in a situation like that. Politics is a team sport, and when you have a member of the team depart and depart on such a critical day like budget day in Ottawa, I can appreciate that things would have been very tense. That would have been a really difficult conversation. I would note to your point, Jamie, that the account of what occur in the words of Mr. Don Tremas and the words of the party do vary significantly. There's a big gap in Delta there.
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Chris Dontermont
I had the leader, the House leader and the whip barge into my office, you know, push my assistant aside, push rush in, push take the door and just push it wide open to sit there and, you know, tell me how much of a snake I really was.
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Kate Harrison
The party sent out a detailed blow by blow of Scheer and Warkenton's version of events, disputing Dodremont's description of the meeting, saying they entered the office calmly and spoke in a measured voice. So perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. I do think that there was likely a lot of hurt feelings, again, because to your point, this really trampled on the opposition's ability to have a cogent message coming out of the budget. And so we can have a debate about Mr. Don Trebant's motivations for maybe doing this and whether or not those are valid. But I think for conservatives right now, it's actually less about that and it's more about timing. It really had a big impact on conservatives and Poliev's ability to get out and have a sound criticism of a budget that failed to meet the expectations of a lot of Canadians, and one that I think the Liberals may not be particularly proud to stand behind, because it seems to me that they much rather be talking about this caucus and House drama than the defending key principles put forward in that budget.
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Jamie Poisson
Fred, do you want to come in here? How damaging or not damaging, I guess, do you think it is to have that kind of story out in the public for voters to consume, but also for other Conservative MPs to consume?
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Fred DeLaure
Well, anytime there's a floor Crossing, it's, it's bad for your party. There's no other way around it. You're losing someone who's decided to leave. But just to back up to the point about, you know, Andrew and Chris going and Workington going to Don Tremont's office, and Don Tremont saying that's what pushed him over, he was out immediately after saying, I'm thinking of crossing to the Liberal Party. Once I see their budget, there's no putting that back in. You're out, you're done. And the House leader and whip went to talk to him. I don't know why they went to talk to him. I'm not sure what they were hoping to accomplish because in my experience, when you go out that far, you've already decided you're just really miscommunicating it and communicating it early.
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Kate Harrison
And I would just add really quickly there. Chris Entremond, I don't think is somebody that a lot of conservatives would say was content for a while and this took everybody by surprise. But he's also somebody that has been in elected politics for a quarter of a century, so he would know very well that the moment you publicly muse about crossing to join the governing party, what the consequence of that action is. So, again, I think Fred is bang on. This is not the reaction from the Conservative House leader and WIP was quite predictable. And I think that Mr. Dontermont probably knew what to expect when he did that on Budget Day in particular.
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Jamie Poisson
So I guess whether or not Andrew Scheer and Chris Warkington could have persuaded him to stay or not, aside, I take your point and you think there's no way he was already out the door. I. I do want to ask you both about the response that we saw after the Fleur crossing from the Conservative party. Many MPs in the party, I think it is fair to say that it was very much on the offense. Some have said that he betrayed his voters. B.C. conservative MP Mark Dalton posted on Tuesday that Don would not have crossed over if he had won the deputy speaker position and that extra 51k that went with it. And actually response to Doterman's account of what happened in his office. The party released a statement that read, in part, chris Dontermont, who established himself as a liar after willfully deceiving his voters, friends and colleagues because he was upset he didn't get his coveted speaker, deputy speaker role, is now spinning more lies after crossing the floor. Fred, is this hard clapback mode the right strategy here?
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Fred DeLaure
You think it's hard to put strategy in place when emotions are so high, when you have someone you know leave the family, which is essentially what Don Thurmont did. And Kate pointed out he has been an elected conservative for a quarter of a century. He was a staffer, conservative staffer before that. I've known him for almost 30 years. He's someone that I've spent a fair bit of time with, have had dinner with, a lot of conversations with, and it's hard, it's hurtful. When someone leaves the family, they are leaving it. I think he even struggled at times. If you look at the statement he put out, he said he's joining the government caucus. He didn't even use the L word because it's probably a bit hard for him to do. Like Don Tremont, I'm a Nova Scotian and involved in politics there. And two provincial liberals crossed to the PC government of Tim Houston in the last year and a half. And, of course, jumping for joy when that happens, and welcome these great legislators into the fold. So it goes both ways. Obviously, people do get wound up and probably go over the top when it happens, but it's hard to control.
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Jamie Poisson
But do you think that that's the moment where you need cooler heads to prevail? And when you need really good political strategy. Right. It's kind of when the rubber hits the road. Right.
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Fred DeLaure
I don't know if people really keep score for those things, though. Right. Like, this is thing. This is the thing that'll move on. People will know he crossed. You know, always cooler head is something I'm always a big fan of. But when you lash out, like whatever party is that loses a member, you do it for a few days, you get. You blow off the steam and then you move on. If you say nothing, then what are you saying, too? You know, sometimes it's best to fill the airwaves with something, even if it may not be the, you know, the most calm type of message.
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Jamie Poisson
So we did see reporting last week that there was somewhere between 10 and 15 MPs who were very frustrated with Poliev and his senior leadership team. And do you have a sense a week out of whether this response from the party to last week's events has done anything to quell those frustrations? Or is is it possible that it has made those frustrations worse?
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Kate Harrison
It's important to keep in mind that Poliev is governing the largest caucus not to form government. I think it's important to keep in mind, too, that the last election was incredibly disappointing to caucus and to Conservatives across the country. And obviously the leader, having lost his own seat, really left the Conservatives at a disadvantage and put the opposition back on its heels at a time where they had been leading on a number of issues and in the polls for quite a period of time. Time. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those numbers are inflated. I remember, you know, when Carney gave his budget speech on 22 October, before the delivery of the budget. We were hearing about floor crossing at that time. It never materialized. Caucus will always have folks that are disgruntled and disappointed, and that is not unique to the conservatives. But I think that the dynamic the Conservatives are dealing with right now is a different one than what you've seen in the past from. From the Conservative Party in particular. It's a larger caucus. We were so close to winning that last election. You're seeing some of that frustration a little bit. I think we might be overstating how that's manifesting in terms of floor crossing and people genuinely looking to the party for a real change in direction or leadership.
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Jamie Poisson
Right. But even if it's overstated, they only need like two. Right. To form a majority government. So, I mean, it is pretty high stakes, just to state the obvious, I guess. Fred, I just wonder if I could get your thoughts on this. Like, do you think the response quelled those grumblings in the. Or frustrations in the Conservative Party? Or do you think it's possible that it actually have made. Made people have, like, more second thoughts? You know, these reports that Genaroo was pressured and I should point out that he says coercion didn't play a role in his decision to resign. But are MPs going to think that the office has some sort of file on them and that they're willing to blackmail them or something? These rumors, they're kind of flying around. Right.
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Fred DeLaure
I had a hard time when people were telling me in the last few weeks that, you know, these rumors of floor crossing, trying to think of who it was. I know Don Tremont had, you know, as Kate mentioned, had known issues at times, but I just didn't think it would happen with him. So it doesn't mean any of the other ones aren't, you know, likely to go. It just to me, 15 that are frustrated, that's actually a small number when you consider there's 144. They don't even have close to enough to trigger a vote on the leadership review internally in caucus. And we don't even know who they are. They're not out There, they don't seem organized. And if you're frustrated, I do think there's opportunity from this for Poliev. He's got to understand he does have issues internally with the caucus. Caucus with a. Maybe a small number, two. You're right. If two goes, that's a majority government for the liberals and the game changes drastically. So I think he needs to figure out where exactly those weak points are and try to find ways to communicate with them to, you know, get things to smooth over. But again, I don't, you know, I don't get a sense anyone is crossing here. Being frustrated with the leader and quitting the party are two very different things.
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Strict Scrutiny Podcast Host
The Supreme Court opened its new term with a pro racial profiling wrecking ball, and they're just getting started on the docket. The justices weigh whether cops can storm your house without a warrant, states can do racial gerrymandering, and if bans on conversion therapy for LGBTQ minors violate free speech. Oh, boy.
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Jamie Poisson
But don't worry.
- [14:22]
Strict Scrutiny Podcast Host
Our podcast, Strict Scrutiny is here to break it all down with sharp analysis and just the right amount of shade. New episodes drop every Monday. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.
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Jamie Poisson
I want to come back to some more specific things that John Tremay said this week. He was talking with my colleague Katherine Cullen, and he said that the Conservative Party under Polly Ev was more like a, quote, frat house, not a serious political party. He said that it was about who.
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Chris Dontermont
Who was friends with who. You know, what kind of fun could you have with something?
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Kate Harrison
What.
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Chris Dontermont
How could you end up beating up on someone else? You know, what kind of, you know, negativity could you, you know, is that.
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Jamie Poisson
What'S happening in the party in your estimation, Kate, I would be very curious to hear your. Your response here. Like, is it more like a frat house than a political party?
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Kate Harrison
Yeah, I struggle with that characterization because usually, firstly, you have to consider the timing of the commentary. And obviously, Mr. Don Tremont is making these observations now that he has exited the party. So I do, I do struggle both with kind of the motivation, but in terms of being a serious political party, it's really difficult to look at the last 10 years and not see that the Conservatives are gaining ground, which is not what an unserious political party does. They had more voters come to them in the last election than ever before, as I mentioned, largest caucus to be elected without forming a government, still enjoying a healthy amount of public opinion support in the polls. So that is not the sign of a political party in decline.
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Jamie Poisson
This was the first time I had heard somebody refer to them as a frat house. But certainly Don Tormont said some stuff that we have heard many people say over the course of the election and his aftermath, for example, about Poliev's tone, that not all voters, but many voters find it too angry, too divisive, too Trumpy. And Dontermont said that while Scheer was interim leader of the party in the summer, while Poliev was looking to regain his seat in Alberta, that the tone never changed and that the party has not learned from losing three elections. And, Fred, do you think that the party is not learning this tone lesson?
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Fred DeLaure
Well, I'm not sure what the tone lesson is there. I mean, there's a lot. There's been criticism of POV's tone, and he does have negatives that are out there, and, you know, they are at a high level. There's no denying that. I think it's more of some of his messaging and who he's communicating with and how he is very aggressive at getting. People refer to it as the base of the party. I wouldn't say it's the base, but a big part of the conservative coalition that is off putting to others. And there is that balance I think he should be trying to find. And how do you keep those people fired up? Those are the people that feel left behind. They're angry at government. And when he talks to them in an angry voice, it's because they are angry themselves. They are struggling with affordability. They're struggling with housing costs. So he's leading a mo. A movement there. But it does make it difficult with another part of the electorate that you need to win over. So finding that balance is very, very hard. And I think he has opportunity to do it.
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Jamie Poisson
Sorry, I don't want to interrupt you. I just want to ask you, like, I was at an event with Polya recently. He was talking to a lot of young people. I have never heard anybody say that they don't like how he talks passionately about housing or how he feels angry about. I've never heard anybody say that they don't like it. What I have heard people say is they didn't like how he talked to that reporter when he was munching on an apple.
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Fred DeLaure
What does that mean? Well, appealing.
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Chris Dontermont
Appealing to people's more emotional levels, I would guess.
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Fred DeLaure
I mean, certainly, certainly you.
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Chris Dontermont
Certainly, certainly you tap very strong ideological language quite frequently. Frequently.
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Kate Harrison
Like what?
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Jamie Poisson
I think that there's a difference between those two things. Do you think that he's Learned some lessons there. I will note. I don't want to drop this on you, but he was just in a press conference right now and he was asked whether he's reflecting on his leadership style, and he's saying, no, we are.
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Fred DeLaure
My plan is to continue to lead and be the only leader in the country that's fighting for an affordable Canada where our people who work hard.
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Jamie Poisson
And then he steered. Steered his comments back to the budget.
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Fred DeLaure
Right. And I would say that's the right approach. I think that's the right thing to say. I'm not saying it's the right thing to do. It's the right thing to say. You can't, as a strong leader, as someone trying to lead a movement, say, you're right, I need to reflect on my leadership style and change it. Because then you've really alienated those people that really believe in you. And there's a lot of those people that do. Going back to the apple thing, that did turn a lot of people off, it also fired up a lot of people who thought, this guy's a fighter. For me, he's cool. He's knocked to put up with ridiculous questions. And that there's those people who feel left behind and out of the system that. That appealed greatly to. There is a side of that that works.
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Kate Harrison
And I would just add to that. I don't think POIEV is in a competition for miscongeniality. Right. His job is to draw contrast with the current government. And so sometimes that discipline and focus and criticism is characterized as mean or cold or aloof. But I think that the real key there is the contrast from the current government and drawing enough separation for Canadians because if they are given an option between two versions of the same party, they're going to likely continue to vote Liberal. And I would say, too, Doug Ford in 2018 was by far the most divisive option that party members could have chosen to select and run in the provincial election campaign. Compared to the other candidates on offer, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney, he was by far the most polarizing choice. He has now led three successful majority governments at the Ontario provincial level. So I think that you can have a clear value proposition and definition put forward to voters about who you are, maybe a lot of preconceived notions. It doesn't mean that they're not going to really consider electing you, particularly in a dynamic where the government isn't meeting their promises and where affordability is a top concern.
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Jamie Poisson
Before we came into this conversation, I was reading a piece By Abacus had David Coletto, who I'm sure you both know, who is a regular guest on this show. And he was making many of the same points that you are both making here. That Polly of support is unprecedented in modern day conservative politics. But he goes on to say that, quote, politics is not a family reunion. Elections are usually won by persuading those outside your tribe. And among conservative non conservative voters, the data, as we have been saying, tells a very different story. So just for example, for people listening, only 3% of those who don't currently support the Conservatives feel very positively about Poliev. There are people in the middle there. And then I think very importantly, 52% say they have a very negative impression of him. And is that something that you think he can turn around? Because it seems like you gotta get some of those people if you want to be the Prime Minister. Right.
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Fred DeLaure
There's two ways that goes. There's the one way where he does have to adapt and try to find a way the balance to keep your base fired up and alleviate fears of a chunk of the electorate. The other side of it is just understand timings will change whenever the next election is. We do not know what the actual issue set will be then. Last one was very unique. We had Trump, we had Elbows up, we had Mark Carney look like the man for the job. If there's an election in eight months, a year, is that the same ballot question? I would be advising him to find a way to find that balance, to get that, you know, keep what you have, but try to grow into the middle where you can by alleviating the fears of whatever the electorate is. And that takes a deep dive research project to understand where the people really are and what the concerns are and then finding ways to subtly address them. Harper did this in 05.
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Kate Harrison
Right.
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Fred DeLaure
Like he came out as one of his top issues was on healthcare in the 200506 campaign when we lost in 04 because people thought we were going to cut healthcare. So he went in there and he removed that weapon immediately. And you know, he went on to be Canada's sixth longest serving Prime Minister.
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Jamie Poisson
I would put this question to either of you. Do you think that he can do that and do you think that there's a will by him and from the people around him to do that?
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Kate Harrison
I think he can. He needs to look at the issues that are of critical importance to parts of the electorate that we lost in the last campaign. And I think in particular the concerns of middle aged and older male Canadians. The Government has been talking a lot about the economic change that is going to be required for this country. That is going to be felt overwhelmingly by older Canadians who might not have access to some of this resources or new opportunities. And so I think there's an opportunity there for the Conservatives to really zero in on that particular demographic and talk about policies and a political home for those voters. He also needs to make sure that he's doubling down on the gains that were made with young people in the last election. And you mentioned housing, Jamie. I think if the election, whenever it's held, is about housing, you'll see the Conservatives likely form government.
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Jamie Poisson
One final question for you both. I know we've been pulling at this the entire conversation, but I think it would be helpful to end this by asking you both directly. You know, most people I've talked to are saying at this moment they. They believe that Poliev will make it through the leadership review in January, that he will remain the leader. But I think it's worth asking you both just straight. I know it's something we've been pulling out throughout this conversation, but do you think that he is the right person to take this party forward?
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Kate Harrison
I think the thing to remember about the convention is that it's delegated. So this is a relatively controlled environment for folks to have a say in the future of the party. And the leadership question more specifically, I think, again, my answer in this is rooted in data. And so you look at how Poliev polls compare to other conservatives in the movement, compared to previous leaders of the movement when they had unsuccessful election campaigns, where conservatives are polling right now in terms of public opinion, this is not a sign to shake things up. We're in a minority government. The next election, in my view, is likely sooner than it is further away. None of that is a cocktail for changing things up with the leadership.
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Fred DeLaure
I look back at Stephen Harper. We lost in 04. There was talks in the summer of 05 of maybe not going again. And I'm grateful he did, and I think we all are. Andrew Scheer in 2019, when he lost, I advocated then that he should go again. He ultimately decided not to. Obviously. I was Aero Tools campaign manager. I thought he should have gone a second time. But I think the experience you get and if you can learn from it, and I think that's what remains to be seen. Will he learn from it? Will he get better? Will he get sharper? And will he, you know, I don't want to say smooth down the edges, but find that right path to victory. I think he's best placed to do that than anyone else that would come into this new job trying to rebuild what at the time could become a fractured party if our leader leaves. You know, the coalition of conservatives is it's broad across this country. There's many different types of conservatives, and it's a very challenging movement to keep together. And I do think he is well placed to do that. And again, I do hope he finds that path to victory.
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Jamie Poisson
Okay, thank you both for this. Really appreciate it.
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Kate Harrison
Thank you.
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Fred DeLaure
Thank you.
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Jamie Poisson
All right. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.
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Fred DeLaure
For more CBC Podcasts, go to CBC CA Podcasts.