Politics! 4th floor-crosser, NDP's future

Summary

Front Burner Podcast Summary

Episode: Politics! 4th floor crosser, NDP's future
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guest: Erin Wary (CBC Senior Writer)

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Overview

In this episode, host Jayme Poisson and CBC senior writer Erin Wary analyze the political fallout from Nunavut MP Lori Idlout’s move from the NDP to the Liberal Party—making her the fourth MP to cross the aisle since last November, and the first from the NDP after three Conservatives who previously defected to the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney. The episode dissects how this shift shapes the prospects for the Liberals' push for a majority, what it means for the future of the NDP as it selects a new leader, and assesses the outlook for the Conservatives.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unprecedented Wave of Floor Crossings (00:32–03:06)

• Significance:

  • Lori Idlout’s floor crossing is historic, following three recent switches from Conservative MPs—a phenomenon described as "quadruply unprecedented."
  • The NDP released a statement preempting typical protocol, seemingly trying to spoil the Liberals' announcement.

• Process & Context:

  • Rumors about Idlout defecting existed for months, heightened by her previous abstention from the budget and ambiguous comments regarding her intentions.
  • Crossing was not a complete surprise, but the timing and execution were unexpected.

Memorable moment:
Erin Wary: “...as you and I have talked about for a long time now, this has been a point of fascination in Ottawa for months, and the expectation of floor crossing has kind of been hanging in the air for a while now.” (02:55)

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2. Lori Idlout’s Rationale & Regional Dynamics (03:06–06:09)

• North’s Priorities:
  • Idlout cites advocacy for Nunavut’s specific needs—climate change, sovereignty, and an underrepresented voice in government—as motivating factors.
  • She claims substantial encouragement from constituents to join the Liberals for "a stronger voice in government" (04:24).

Notable quote:
Lori Idlout (on constituent requests):

"It's not just what I heard from Nunavumiu, but it was the sheer volume...that asked me to cross the floor...so that I could have a stronger voice in government..." (04:24)

• Concerns about NDP Limitations:
  • Idlout references being seen as "just appearing as a complainer" and wanting more direct influence (05:03).

Notable quote:

"Part of what they were saying... is that I'm just appearing as a complainer...they reminded me that's not how we should be and that...a better way to do it is to be a part of government." (05:03)

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3. Past Criticism and Perceived Contradictions (06:09–08:43)

• Turnaround in Perspective:
  • Idlout had publicly criticized the Liberals in the past—specifically over the government’s treatment of Inuit children.
  • Listeners are encouraged to scrutinize whether she has received specific policy commitments in exchange for her defection.

Memorable quote—Jamie Poisson recalling past critique:

"She told Nunavut News, quote, 'they would rather dig for critical minerals than ensure Inuit have food to eat. I'm disgusted by the Carney government's response to Nunavut.' Those are pretty strong, strong words." (05:44)

• Link to Avi Lewis & NDP Leadership Race:
  • Idlout had shared a stage with left-wing NDP leadership candidate Avi Lewis just days before crossing, deepening questions about her motivations.

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4. Implications for the Liberal Majority (11:34–16:41)

• Numbers Game in Parliament:
  • With Idlout’s switch, Liberals hold 170 seats—two short of a majority (172)—with three key by-elections on the horizon, two in Toronto (seen as safe Liberal seats) and one highly competitive seat in Quebec (Terrabonne).
  • Achieving 173 seats would grant full majority powers, including majority control of House committees.

Key exchange:
Jamie Poisson:

"If my math is right, then we’ve got a majority there in 172." (11:44)
Erin Wary:
"Yes, we have a majority in the narrowest sense." (12:04)

• Potential for Future Floor Crossers:
  • Given current trends, another floor crossing is considered likely.

Notable quote:
Erin Wary:

"...at this point you just have to assume that somebody else is going to cross the floor. Cause it just seems to keep happening." (14:19)

• Majority Government Dynamics:
  • A true majority could embolden the Carney government to act more decisively—and perhaps risk overreaching, as seen under previous majority governments.
  • Near-majority situations could swing leverage to Liberal backbenchers.

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5. The NDP’s Crisis and Leadership Race (18:34–24:33)

• NDP’s Precarious Standing:

  • From 103 seats in 2011 to now possibly five after another potential departure, the NDP faces existential questions.
  • Leadership voting underway; key candidates include Heather McPherson (centrist, experienced Alberta MP), Avi Lewis (left-wing, draws big endorsements), and Rob Ashton (union support).

• Debate Over Direction:

  • Tension between “bold, unapologetic” leftism (Lewis) and pragmatic, incremental centrism (McPherson).

“Should it move further to the left, should it move further to the center. Principle versus power. These are long standing debates within the NDP.” —Erin Wary (19:38)

• Doubts About Left Populism’s Electoral Appeal:
  • Pundit consensus that Lewis’s platform may not be resonating widely, though Canadian politics has a history of reversals—and past upsets (e.g., Jack Layton, Zoram Mamdani).
  • Presence in House seen as advantageous (McPherson's edge); leaders without seats face challenges but can compensate via media and public engagement.

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6. The Shrinking Left and the Two-Party Question (24:33–27:00)

• Risks of a Two-Party System:
  • A weakened NDP and Greens may concentrate federal politics between Liberals and Conservatives (plus the Bloc Quebecois).
  • Canadian political traditions and regional diversity suggest this may not last.

"The Canadian political system has had moments when it looked like it was moving into a two party system...and inevitably it fractures or other parties emerge, you know, voters move around." —Erin Wary (24:50)

• Historical Lessons:
  • References to 2011’s “NDP moment” and frequent party-system upheavals caution against forecasting permanent political realities.

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7. Conservative Party Outlook (27:00–28:32)

• Effects of Floor Crossing:
  • While previous crossings reflected poorly on Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, the NDP defection changes the calculus.
  • A prolonged period before the next election could allow Conservatives to regroup, but risks further stagnation and internal challenges.

"...as much as the Conservatives don't want an election right this minute, I don't know that it's necessarily therefore good news that an election might not happen until 2029." —Erin Wary (28:15)

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Notable Quotes

• Laurie Idlout (04:24):
  “I've heard from so many [constituents] that they're asking me to do it so that I could have a stronger voice in government...”

• Jamie Poisson (05:44):
  “They would rather dig for critical minerals than ensure Inuit have food to eat. I'm disgusted by the Carney government's response to Nunavut.”

• Erin Wary (14:19):
  “At this point you just have to assume that somebody else is going to cross the floor. Cause it just seems to keep happening.”

• Erin Wary (24:50):
  “The Canadian political system...inevitably it fractures or other parties emerge...it doesn't look like Canadian politics sort of naturally defaults to a two party system very easily…”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:32] Introduction of the floor crossing and immediate context
• [03:26] Idlout’s explanation for switching
• [05:44] Past critique of Carney government by Idlout
• [08:43] Discussion on the Liberals' ideological broadening via floor crossings
• [11:34] Parliamentary math: Toward a Liberal majority
• [16:41] Majority leverage and potential for government overreach
• [18:34] NDP’s crisis and leadership review—candidates and direction
• [21:23] Analysis of NDP’s electoral prospects and challenges for leader without a seat
• [24:33] Conversation about the risk of a two-party system
• [27:00] Conservative prospects in this new landscape

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Tone & Style

The conversation is analytical yet informal, filled with political anecdotes, frank assessments, and measured skepticism about grand historical narratives. Jayme Poisson’s interview style is direct but conversational; Erin Wary is nuanced, historically informed, and pragmatic—both approach the evolving situation with a sense of provisionality and caution.

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Conclusion

This episode unpacks a massive week in Canadian federal politics—a fourth MP floor crossing—highlighting the Liberals’ strategic gains, the NDP’s existential challenge as it faces a critical leadership contest, and what all this means for Canada’s major parties. The fluidity and unpredictability of party allegiance and voter sentiment are recurring themes, with history cautioning against any claim that the current party system is set in stone. This evolving landscape sets up high stakes for the Liberals, an existential test for the NDP, and a potential period of restructuring for the Conservatives.

Transcript

[Jamie Poisson]

Support is available 24. 7 with VRBoCare. We're here day or night, ready whenever you need help. Because a great trip starts with the right support.

[Erin Wary]

This is a cbc podcast.

[Jamie Poisson]

Hey, everyone, it's Jamie. Mark Carney and the Liberals have added yet another MP to their ranks with a floor crosser this time, though, from the ndp. Nunavut MP Laurie Idlowt is the fourth MP to cross the floor since last November. The last three were from the Conservative Party, with three by elections coming up next month. This puts the Kearney government on a likely path to a majority. Friend of the show and CBC senior writer Erin Wary is here to talk through how this could all play out for the Liberals, for the ndp, as they get ready to vote on a new leader, and for the Conservatives too. All right, let's get to it. Aaron. Hello.

[Erin Wary]

Hey, Jamie.

[Jamie Poisson]

Here we are again. I think it was, what, less than a month ago that we were talking about the last floor crossing, and I think at the time we were talking about how three was unprecedented. So what are we supposed to call four?

[Erin Wary]

I guess doubly, quadruply unprecedented.

[Jamie Poisson]

All right, this all got rolling late Tuesday night when interim NDP leader Don Davies released a statement and he was expressing his disappointment that Laurie Idlot was crossing over to the Liberals, saying, we're very disappointed that Laurie Idlout has decided

[Erin Wary]

to join the Liberal caucus.

[Jamie Poisson]

In a democracy, something as important as the choice of party representation in Parliament

[Laurie Idlout]

must always remain with our constituents.

[Erin Wary]

We believe that should happen here.

[Jamie Poisson]

What do we know about how this all went down?

[Erin Wary]

So, first of all, it was a bit surprising to get that statement last night. You know, usually it's the MP themselves or their new party who announces it. I think Don Davies and the NDP somehow got word of what was about to happen and attempted to preempt or spoil the surprise for the Liberals. This had been rumored for a while. There was an interview Laurie Idlot gave a couple months ago where she said she wasn't planning on moving to the Liberals at this point, quote, unquote, which led many to believe that maybe something was still possible. Her name had circulated as. As one of the potential floor crossers for a while. So I don't know that it was a big surprise that it happened. It was a bit of a surprise that it happened the way it did and at that particular moment. But as you and I have talked about for a long time now, this has been a point of fascination in Ottawa for months, and the expectation of floor crossing has kind of been hanging in the air for A while now.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah, I remember she abstained from the budget back in November. Right. And so people were kind of trying to read those tea leaves a little bit back then. She really hung her reasons for crossing on the North. Right. And just tell me more about what we have heard from her since, I guess her former boss broke the news.

[Erin Wary]

You know, look, she's the MP for Nunavut, which is a unique job in Parliament and a unique riding. I'm sure many MPs would say their ridings are unique, but I think it goes double for her. It is a great, great pleasure. One of Canada's greatest constituency MPs. You represent a riding that is the size of Mexico and very diverse. And we've had conversations about what we can do, both large and, and small in Nunavut. Large projects, but also helping everyone's yearly hope. The north obviously has some pretty particular concerns right now in terms of both climate change and Antarctic sovereignty. Those are issues that Mark Carney has obviously talked about, particularly when it comes to protecting the North. And she really leaned on, on her riding and on the concerns of the north as a particular reason for moving to the Liberals.

[Laurie Idlout]

It's not just what I heard from Nunavumiu, but it was the sheer volume of the number of Nunavumiu that asked me to cross the floor. I've heard from so many of them that they're asking me to do it so that I could have a stronger voice in government and to make sure that what's important to them is being vocalized and heard and part of the decision making process that will form our policies and our legislation.

[Erin Wary]

I think you can see the argument that, you know, being a member of the ndp, particularly at this point in time, your ability to influence things and to advance the interests of your region, of your riding are pretty limited.

[Laurie Idlout]

Part of what they were saying when they were asking me to cross the floor is that I'm just appearing as a complainer that I just, whenever there's announcements, that I just complain about what the announcements are. And they reminded me that that's not how we should be and that in order to make sure that we are getting the work that we need to do, then a better way to do it is to be a part of government.

[Erin Wary]

But, you know, moving to the Liberals and being the MP for a riding where there are, you know, these kind of bigger geopolitical issues could put her in a place to really, you know, have an influence on government policy. And I think that's sort of what you saw in her statement, it's interesting

[Jamie Poisson]

though, she has been pretty critical of the Carney government in the past year. Specifically, I remember over changes to your program that provides support to Inuit children. Last year she told Nunavut News, quote, they would rather dig for critical minerals than ensure Inuit have food to eat. I'm disgusted by the Kearney government's response to none of it. Those are pretty strong, strong words.

[Erin Wary]

Hey, quite. Look, this happens almost every time there's a floor crossing. You know, it doesn't take people too long to go through previous statements and say, well, what about this? What about that? I think it does raise some questions about, you know, how she views the Liberal government, whether she has received any assurances that it's going to address some of the concerns she has. It's definitely. I know, you know, just from, from, as I say, going through the last few months of, of all the speculation about floor crossers, watching her in the House of Commons and listening to the questions she asked during question period, for instance, at times it has been like, oh, okay, she seems pretty critical of the Liberal, so that must suggest she's not going to cross the floor. And so, you know, when she does cross the floor, you know, naturally you do want to ask, okay, well, have your positions changed? Has the government given you some assurances in her defense? This does come up, as I say, every time someone crosses the floor, they have ended up making statements that don't seem to match. And I think that's just ends up being something that every person who crosses the floor ends up having to answer for at some point.

[Jamie Poisson]

Just a few days ago, she was on stage with NDP leadership candidate Avi Lewis. And Avi is very far away from Carney. Right. He is anti fossil fuel development. He recently said, really what my objection

[Erin Wary]

to Carney's leadership, leadership is exactly that. He's a smart guy and he's very popular in Canada right now because he has a diagnosis about where we are in history. We're at a turning point. But what he wants to do is make us into a petro state. That is a militarized petro state. A junior arms dealer on the world stage. I have a very different vision for

[Jamie Poisson]

Canada and that's his platform is really one of democratic socialism. Make that make sense to me.

[Erin Wary]

There's a bit of a resemblance to the Michael Moss situation where he showed up to the Conservative Christmas Party and then I believe it was exactly 24 hours later showed up to the Liberal Christmas Party. She didn't go so far as to endorse Avi Lewis. So maybe there's a bit of room there where you can see that you could show up at an Avi Lewis event and then cross over to the Liberals. But I think it is again, it adds to this sort of awkwardness that I think any floor crosser has to answer for or try to explain, explain. And as I think we'll probably get into it adds some questions for potentially Avi Lewis as the next NDP leader.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah, yeah, I want to get back to Avi in a minute. Just on this point that the Carney Liberals have now wooed an NDP mp. You know, how should we read the fact that they now have three people from the Conservative Party and one from the ndp? It's very odd. These are two completely different parties.

[Erin Wary]

Yeah, it's definitely the most interesting political angle on this that as I'm sure we talked about at various points, the Liberals, the Mark Carney Liberals being able to attract previously three Conservative MPs was read including by me as a sign of, you know, this is where Mark Carney has moved the Liberals. He's moved them towards a kind of progressive Conservative or more centrist Liberal Party. And you know, I think that would have been something that New Democrats would have pointed to as a, as a, as a failing of the Liberal Party as a, as a criticism. And for Mark Carney to have now attracted an NDP MP sort of upsets that tidy narrative that some of us wrote at various points. Yeah, I think it is an interesting idea that Mark Carney has somehow built a Liberal party that can attract both Lori Idlot and Matt Genarou. Matt Genre is a four term, was a four term Conservative mp. Lori Idlett's a two time elected NDP mp and somehow both of these people can find a home in the Liberal Party. That's a remarkable thing for the Liberal Party to be able to claim and probably something that the Conservatives and the NDP both have to worry about. There's one place for the newest drops in wellness and performance and the biggest sale of the year. It's the drop by gnc curating the best of what's new. Handpicked by the pros who know what works. And right now, get it all. Buy one, get one 50% off during the semi annual LiveWell sale. From crushing workouts to leveling up your nutrition and everything in between. Get the best deals on the latest innovations. All the newness is all on sale right now during the LiveWell sale on the drop by GNC.

[Laurie Idlout]

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[Jamie Poisson]

Okay, we're coming back to the ndp, but let's do some math first. So before this, as we've talked about, we saw those three conservatives cross. So with Lori, the liberals are at 170 right now, two away from a majority, and we've got three by elections coming up next month. And like we talked about last time you were on, the two in Toronto are seen as pretty safe bets. So if my math is right, then we've got a majority there in 172.

[Erin Wary]

Yes, we have a majority in the narrowest sense.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah, if they win. And then there is Terraban, Quebec. The Liberals won the riding last year by one vote, just one vote over the Bloc Quebecois. But last month, the Supreme Court tossed the initial result out and ordered a redo because of a misprint on mail and ballot envelopes. And this is looking like it's actually still a very tight race. And so if the Liberals won that one and the two in Toronto, that would get them to 173. And just what would that extra seat get them?

[Erin Wary]

The difference between 172 and 173 is not small. 172 is a magic number for the Liberals in the sense that at that point they would have, as I say, a narrow majority in the House of Commons because the speaker of the House is a Liberal mp, though they would be in a situation where they would need the speaker to essentially break tie votes if everyone showed up to vote. And that would ensure they could survive confidence votes. It would mean that, you know, they weren't in imminent danger of falling, of being defeated in the House, but it would make it a bit harder to do some other things. Particularly it would be harder for them to give themselves a majority on House of Commons committees, which are really pivotal to moving legislation through the House. And so if they can get to 173, then even with the speaker being a Liberal MP, they've got a clear, straight majority in the House of Commons. They can move a motion to change the allotment of MPs on House committees. They can more easily do a number of things to move legislation forward. They can be assured that legislation is going to be moved forward. So by all means, I'm sure they'd be happy to take 172. Getting to 173 or more is really where you start to get some real freedom to govern, like a majority.

[Jamie Poisson]

And of course, just to state the obvious, if they don't get all three next month, there is still the very real specter of more floor crossers, too.

[Erin Wary]

Yeah, I mean, I've said this, I'm sure before on the show, at this point you just have to assume that somebody else is going to cross the floor. Cause it just seems to keep happening.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. Okay, so let's just say from the intellectual argument that next month they get to 173. Right. Or I guess even 172. That would mean we wouldn't have another election just practically for three years. Unless the liberals decided they want one. Right?

[Erin Wary]

Yeah. Pending other developments, they'd be clear until, in theory, 2029.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay. How else do you think that this could materially change the way that the Carney government actually governs?

[Erin Wary]

Yeah, I think it's a big question and I think it's an open question. Do the liberals under Mark Carney, if they get a majority, do they start acting bolder? Do they try to make some even more ambitious changes? Are they even less inclined to listen to criticism or complaints or opposition suggestions? A majority government has a lot of freedom to do a lot of things. And I think you've seen in the past, arguably, you know, if you go back a ways to when Stephen Harper's conservatives gained a majority, once they moved from a minority to a majority, they definitely got bolder and not always in ways that people liked, and it at times got them into some political trouble. So I think there's a risk of overreach in a situation like this that the liberals probably have to be mindful of. But I think the other piece of it that's kind of potentially interesting is if they're sitting at something like 172 or 173 or even 174seats, they may have a fair bit of freedom to do things. But suddenly it could be a matter of a few liberal backbenchers suddenly have a bit more leverage to say, actually, I disagree with what we're doing and I think we should do something else. And suddenly they're maybe holding the balance of power. And we've seen in the past under Justin Trudeau and now under Mark Carney, that there are liberal backbenchers who are willing to speak their mind, to disagree with the government. And suddenly instead of opposition MPs having the potential balance of power, maybe it's those sort of independent minded liberals who do.

[Jamie Poisson]

Right, Right. There's one, I think, last week who spoke out against Carney's position on the US Israeli war in Iran.

[Erin Wary]

Will Greaves here, the member of Parliament for Victoria. We can be clear eyed about Iran's human rights record and its abuses and the destructive role that it has played in the Middle east and still insist on consistency, restraint and the protection of civilians, because that's what credibility looks like in a fracturing world.

[Jamie Poisson]

When you say that the Harper government got kind of too triumphant and there were consequences for that, what do you. What do you mean?

[Erin Wary]

Yeah. So if you go back to that time, Stephen Harper, for the first five years of his time as prime minister, the story on him was that he was pragmatic, that he was cautious, that he had to kind of work his way through minority parliaments that weren't necessarily lined up in his favor. And then they get the majority and they start doing some bolder things and some things they hadn't really advertised in the past. You know, changing the age of eligibility for old age security, overhauling environmental assessment laws, unilaterally changing some of the rules around healthcare funding for the provinces. And it's hard to do a counterfactual and say that that necessarily led to them losing in 2015, but it certainly galvanized opposition against them in some cases. And I think it is at least fair to note that they may have won that majority in 2011, but four years later they were completely out of office. So, you know, the idea that winning a majority is sort of the end of the story and you can do whatever you want. There's a pretty big asterisk on that, I think.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay, let's talk more about the NDP then. So they're coming out of their worst election in history. They had seven seats. Now with IDLAQ on, they have six. Another one of their members is considering running for Quebec provincial politics in the fall. So that would bring them down to five if that happens. As we've talked about, they have this leadership race. People are actually starting to vote right now on who they want to lead the party, and it will culminate at the end of the month. And we've got five candidates, a couple of frontrunners here. Let me go through them for people. Heather McPherson, who is an Edmonton MP who's got a lot of support from the Alberta NDP. She often points out how she is the only leadership candidate with a record of beating Conservatives. Avi Lewis, who we've already talked about running on a more social democratic environmental platform. He has raised more than double the money that Heather has and has gotten big endorsements from people like David Suzuki. Rob Ashton is getting a lot of union support. And how are these different visions playing out here?

[Erin Wary]

I think in broad strokes the party is having a version of a debate it's had lots of times in the past about, you know, should it move further to the left, should it move further to the center. Principle versus power. These are long standing debates within the ndp. And I think Avi Lewis is running on the idea that the party needs to be bold and ambitious and unabashedly progressive and distinct and you know, that sort of socialist or social democratic idea should be front and center. I think Heather, Heather McPherson is running kind of more on the idea that she has more experience, she knows what it takes to win, maybe not being quite as bold in her policy pronouncements. I think that's sort of the shape of the debate that they're having. And they're having it under, you know, remarkably difficult circumstances for the NDP. It wasn't that long ago, you know, 2011, when they had 103 seats and it looked like they had fundamentally sort of reshaped the political left and federal politics writ large. And, and now they're looking at maybe being down to as few as five seats when their next leader takes over.

[Jamie Poisson]

So I've listened to a lot of pundits lately talk about how Avi is selling something that voters across the country don't want right now. Maybe like an energetic base or a certain segment of the population want it, but they make the argument that there's broad support amongst Canadians writ large for things like investing in more resource development like pipelines and pouring money into the military. And just what do you make of what we are hearing from the pundit class?

[Erin Wary]

Yeah, I mean, look, if you look at the polls as they are right now, you would say that a pretty strong plurality of Canadians like what Mark Carney is doing, like what he's talking about, like what he represents. And you know, at least based on the polls, you wouldn't see that there has been much of a backlash to anything he's done in terms of, you know, moving the party too far to the center or, or in any, in any other respect. You know, it doesn't look like the NDP has suddenly come back or that voters who maybe went to the Liberals in The last election are starting to move back to the ndp. So based on that, yeah, you would wonder how much appeal there is for what Avi Lewis is promoting, what he's selling, what he, you know, the kind of ideas he's promoting. That said, it's so hard to know. You know, look, we just talked about the ndp being at 103 seats in 2011 and seemingly the world had changed at that point. The endless lesson in Canadian politics is to be very humble about how things are going to play out and where voters are going to go because they shift and they change and you never quite know what's going to catch fire. And I can see the argument that Avi Lewis is making that, look, the NDP can't just be a slightly different version of the Liberals, they need to be something completely different. And maybe there's a constituency for that. You know, you can't look at the polls right now and say that there is. But I think we have to see how it plays out over what could be now we now know could be a full three years before the next election.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. And I mean, I want to try and make it apples to apples comparison here, but yeah, there were a lot of people throwing cold water, a lot of cold water on Zoram Mamdani's campaign in New York and he is now mayor of New York City. So, you know, to your point, a lot can change. Heather is the only one with a seat in the House of Commons, though. And just how much of a challenge would that be if, let's say, Avi or Rob Ashton won? They don't have a seat?

[Erin Wary]

Yeah, I think it's a challenge. Look, any NDP leadership candidate running without a seat will very quickly point out to you that Jack Layton also didn't have a seat when he became NDP leader. But I think people in Ottawa would point out that Jack Layton spent a lot of time in Ottawa getting in front of cameras, getting attention, making sure that he was involved in the discussion and wasn't an afterthought. And I think that's the key, even more than the seat necessarily is making sure that you have a presence. Politicians will always say, oh, look, you know, you don't need to be inside the bubble. You need to be out across the country, you know, shaking hands and talking to people. And social media has obviously changed the way people communicate, politicians communicate. But I think more than having the seat, it's really about can you get yourself into the conversation? Can you be relevant to the discussions that are happening here in Ottawa? Because you need to be relevant somehow.

[Jamie Poisson]

With the Greens basically decimated and the NDP now down to six, maybe five, and we don't know if they're going to be able to kind of pick themselves up here. What do you think our democracy loses ultimately when we basically have a two party system and the Bloc Quebecois?

[Erin Wary]

I think there's a few points to make here. First, you don't necessarily want a democracy, which options are limited. You know, you can take it to an extreme. You probably don't want too many political parties, but, but having a number more than 2 of political parties does, you know, lead to a richer conversation and a richer debate. I think though, as much as it looks like we're moving to a two party system, you know, maybe connected to a point I made earlier, like I wouldn't bet a lot on it remaining a two party system for very long. I think the Canadian political system has had moments when it looked like it was moving into a two party system, when it has been a two party system and inevitably it fractures or other parties emerge, you know, voters move around. It doesn't look like Canadian politics sort of naturally defaults to a two party system very easily either because the country's so big or there's, or the issues, the way the issues break down. And so as much as at this moment it looks like the Liberals, you know, could have a majority and the Conservatives could be the, the main opposition and the Bloc could be solidified in Quebec. And that doesn't leave much room for the ndp. I wouldn't count on that remaining that way for very long. And you know, just to go back to 2011 because apparently it left a big mark on me. There were a lot of pieces written after that election that said, well, now Canadian politics has changed forever. The Federal Liberal Party is essentially dead. We are now finally going to be like some of our democratic cousins and we're going to be a two party system where there's a clear party of the left and a clear party of the right and the NDP shall be the clear party of the left. And none of that survived, you know, much more than a few more years because then four years later we had a liberal majority. And the party system has changed at least once or twice over that period of time. So I think the lesson here is, and we may be seeing it with the four crossers too, is that these things are just going to kind of continue evolving and changing and assuming that the kind of political situation is sort of in concrete and set, it just doesn't stand up to what we've seen

[Jamie Poisson]

in the past, before we go, we haven't really touched on the Conservatives. Is the latest floor crossing from the NDP good for them, bad for them, or a little bit of both?

[Erin Wary]

Yeah. It's interesting because every other floor crossing has been from the Conservatives, so it has seemed to directly reflect on Pierre Poliev's leadership. This one isn't. So it doesn't quite fit into that narrative. And if the thinking was that the Conservatives don't want an election right now because they're trailing in the polls and they could be headed for a big defeat, if they were to stumble into an election, then you can look at this and say, ah, this is good news for the Conservatives because now they have three years, they don't have to worry about an election. They can kind of rebuild and maybe wait for some of the shine to come off Mark Carney and be in a position to defeat him in 2029. That's certainly one way this could play out. I think the question is still, how well does does Pierre Poliev's leadership hold up over the next three years? Three more years in opposition, you know, what if his poll numbers don't come back? What if they stay down? We haven't really seen any kind of overt challenge to his leadership other than the floor crossings. So did some, you know, does a more serious challenge to his leadership emerge? As much as the Conservatives don't want an election right this minute, I don't know that it's necessarily therefore good news that an election might not happen until 2029.

[Jamie Poisson]

Erin, good talking to you. We'll talk to you. I don't know, I guess when there's another floor crosser. I'm sure just next week. Okay, thank you.

[Erin Wary]

Thanks. Foreign.

[Jamie Poisson]

That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

[Erin Wary]

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