Front Burner – “Stuck in the middle: Mark Carney in China”

Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Jamie Poisson (CBC)
Guest: Veena Najibulla, Vice President of Research and Strategy, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks Prime Minister Mark Carney’s landmark trip to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping—a first for a Canadian PM in nearly a decade. Host Jamie Poisson and Asia-Pacific expert Veena Najibulla explore the high-stakes geopolitical balancing act facing Canada, as Carney aims to increase economic ties with China while navigating retaliatory tariffs, domestic political headwinds, and pressure from both the United States and concerns around national security. The episode delves into the future of Canada-China relations, trade disputes, energy and green tech collaborations, Arctic ambitions, and the diplomatic tightrope on human rights and foreign policy values.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Purpose and Stakes of Mark Carney’s China Trip

• Objective: Diversifying Canada’s trade, reducing reliance on the U.S. (02:00)
  • “From Prime Minister Carney's perspective, this trip is about economic cooperation...especially energy and agriculture. It is part of his broader diversification agenda.” — Veena Najibulla [02:00]
• Sensitive Backdrop: Navigating risk of U.S. displeasure (esp. with Trump in office), Chinese retaliation, and national security threats.

2. Tariff Disputes: EVs, Canola, Seafood, and Pork

• Background:
  • 100% Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs, aluminum, and steel (aligned with the U.S.) prompted China to retaliate with heavy tariffs on Canadian canola, seafood, peas, and pork.
• Impact: Major economic hit for Canadian farmers and exporters; heightened political pressure domestically (Doug Ford, auto sector, Western provinces).
  • "Chinese tariffs on canola are continuing to push down prices. With a nearly 76% duty on seeds imposed last month...Producers say they've lost around 6,650 million dollars since the tariffs came into effect." [07:49-08:05]
• Negotiation Prospects:
  • Carney unlikely to immediately lift EV tariffs without U.S. coordination; potential incremental reductions or a roadmap to dialogue.
  • Cites EU’s more nuanced approach—lower, selective tariffs and price floors as a model (06:50).

3. Domestic Political Tightrope

• Ontario’s Auto Sector: Fiercely opposed to loosening EV tariffs.
  • “I'm absolutely 100% dead against this.” — Doug Ford [08:42]
• U.S. Watch: Any Canadian move scrutinized by Washington; deep integration of auto sector.
  • “So whatever we do on the tariffs will be closely watched in Washington.” — Veena Najibulla [04:09]
• Western Farmers: Suffering under Chinese food tariffs; lobbying for relief and diversification.

4. Beyond Tariffs: Energy, Green Tech, and Strategic Sectors

• Energy Opportunity: China needs new oil suppliers due to Venezuela disruption; increased Asian demand for Canadian oil and LNG.
  • “China is buying about 1% of its oil from Canada and there's been a real significant increase since 2024, mid-2024, when the expansion of TMX came online.” — Veena Najibulla [10:36]
• Green Tech: Vast potential for cooperation, but U.S. security concerns loom large. China leads in EV batteries, solar panels, wind turbines.
  • “China produces over 75% of all electric vehicle batteries globally, 80% of solar panels, 60% of the world's wind turbines.” — Jamie Poisson [11:38]
  • U.S. wary of Chinese investment in Canadian critical minerals and infrastructure (Canadian North, Arctic).

5. China’s Arctic Ambitions

• Geostrategic Play: China calls itself a “near-Arctic power” and wants access to Arctic shipping routes and resources; this is raising alarms for Canada, the U.S., and NATO.
  • “China has called itself a near Arctic power even though they're about 900km away from the Arctic Circle.” — Veena Najibulla [15:04]
  • Cooperation between Russia and China in Arctic/military exercises is a growing security concern.

6. Political Compliance Demanded by China

• Trade for Silence: China seeks political concessions (on Taiwan, South China Sea) in exchange for economic engagement.
  • "China often conditions improved economic relations or deeper economic engagement on political compliance..." — Veena Najibulla [17:44]
• Canada’s Response: Recent example — Liberal MPs cut short a Taiwan trip to avoid upsetting Beijing.
  • "Conservative MPs were not asked to return home.” [18:48]
  • “We should be able to do two things: stabilize our relations with the PRC, but at the same time, we should continue to...do what we're doing with Taiwan, which is important.” — Veena Najibulla [19:15]

7. Values vs. Interests: Can Canada ‘Walk and Chew Gum’?

• Issue: Perception that Canada is getting too accommodating; little public emphasis on human rights or values.
  • "We're basically hearing nothing about values or human rights." — Jamie Poisson [20:36]
• Veena Najibulla’s Take: Canada can’t ignore China but must assert its values and support partners like Taiwan.
  • “We can't ignore China as an economic partner, especially in the current moment. We have to figure out to work with them and to be able to have constructive relations. But we also need to be able to stand up for what we believe and defend our values and not abandon our friends, Taiwan...” [20:59]
• Strategy Needed: Strong red lines, allied coordination (esp. with G7, Europe, Asia), supply chain diversification on critical minerals.

8. Comparing China and the United States

• Scale: Canada’s reliance on the U.S. eclipses its dealings with China (76% of exports vs 5%).
  • “We often say China is our second largest partner, but the gap between number one and number two is huge. We sell 76% of our exports to the US and 5% to China. Right. So it's almost meaningless.” — Veena Najibulla [24:13]
• With the U.S.: Security, economic engagement, and continental defense are “existential.”
• Carney’s Approach: Stabilize, not pivot from US to China; diversify ties to reduce single-point vulnerability.
  • “He wants to diversify relationships. He doesn't want us to be dependent on the US but I don't think he also wants us to be dependent on China, which is equally unreliable.” — Veena Najibulla [26:09]

9. Anticipating U.S. Reactions

• Trump Administration Unpredictability: Don't make policy solely to placate Washington.
  • “President Trump doesn't need a rational reason to announce some new punitive measure against Canada or Greenland or someone else.” — Veena Najibulla [26:09]
• Central Message: Canada must focus on its core interests and resilience.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|-------------------|-------| | [02:00] | Veena Najibulla | “From Prime Minister Carney's perspective, this trip is about economic cooperation, about deepening economic engagement with China in certain specific sectors, especially energy and agriculture.” | | [04:09] | Veena Najibulla | “China is very interested in not looking back, but looking forward and in recalibrating the trade relationship...” | | [06:50] | Veena Najibulla | “We can follow also the example of the European Union. They have tariffs on EVs, but they're not 100%...” | | [08:42] | Doug Ford | “I'm absolutely 100% dead against this.” | | [10:36] | Veena Najibulla | “China is buying about 1% of its oil from Canada and there's been a real significant increase since 2024, mid-2024, when the expansion of TMX came online.” | | [11:38] | Jamie Poisson | “China produces over 75% of all electric vehicle batteries globally, 80% of solar panels, 60% of the world's wind turbines.” | | [15:04] | Veena Najibulla | “China has called itself a near Arctic power even though they're about 900km away from the Arctic Circle.” | | [17:44] | Veena Najibulla | “China often conditions improved economic relations...on political compliance and getting its partners to essentially agree to China's narrative...” | | [19:15] | Veena Najibulla | “We should be able to do two things at stabilize our relations with. With the prc. But at the same time, we should continue to be able to do what we're doing with Taiwan, which is important.” | | [20:59] | Veena Najibulla | “We can't ignore China as an economic partner, especially in the current moment...But we also need to be able to stand up for what we believe and defend our values and not abandon our friends...” | | [24:13] | Veena Najibulla | “We often say China is our second largest partner, but the gap between number one and number two is huge. We sell 76% of our exports to the US and 5% to China. Right. So it's almost meaningless.” | | [26:09] | Veena Najibulla | “President Trump doesn't need a rational reason to announce some new punitive measure against Canada or Greenland or someone else.” | | [26:09] | Veena Najibulla | “He wants to diversify relationships. He doesn't want us to be dependent on the US but I don't think he also wants us to be dependent on China, which is equally unreliable.” |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:37] — Introduction and context: Carney’s trade strategy, US/China dynamics
• [02:00]–[05:10] — Purpose of Carney’s trip; tariff war and negotiation prospects
• [07:49]–[08:12] — Economic impact on Canadian farmers
• [08:32]–[10:10] — Political resistance to tariff adjustments and wider trade relationship
• [10:36]–[12:00] — Energy and green tech opportunities, critical minerals
• [14:40]–[15:04] — China’s Arctic ambitions, security anxieties
• [17:36]–[19:15] — China’s political conditions for economic engagement; Taiwan episode
• [20:59]–[23:49] — Values vs. pragmatic engagement: “walking and chewing gum”
• [24:13]–[26:09] — Canada’s asymmetrical relationships with China and the U.S., and future strategy

Conclusion

The episode paints a nuanced picture of Mark Carney’s diplomatic mission: a search for pragmatic economic gains with China, always under the shadow of U.S. expectations, domestic sensitivities, and Canada’s core values. While there are real opportunities—especially in energy and select green technologies—the price of cooperation may include uncomfortable political concessions and risks to sovereignty, especially in emerging strategic domains like the Arctic. The essential takeaway: Canada’s future lies in careful, multi-dimensional diplomacy and diversification—not easy answers or binary choices.