The road to election day

Summary

Front Burner — "The Road to Election Day"

Podcast: Front Burner (CBC)
Date: April 28, 2025
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guest: Katherine Cullen (CBC’s The House)

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Episode Overview

This episode, airing on the day of the 2025 Canadian federal election, offers a thorough look back at an extraordinary and tumultuous campaign. Host Jayme Poisson and CBC’s politics lead Katherine Cullen dissect the dramatic developments that shaped the federal race: from political infighting and leadership changes within the Liberals, to the growing prominence of Prime Minister Mark Carney and the strategic missteps of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Special focus is given to the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies on Canadian politics, the challenges of projecting "change," and simmering national unity issues. The episode closes with a compassionate update following a devastating car attack at Vancouver’s Lapu Lapu Day festival.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: A Tumultuous Run-Up to Election Day

• The campaign has been "short but…packed with plenty of drama" ([00:37], Jayme Poisson).
• Major events covered: Liberal infighting, Trudeau’s resignation, Carney’s rise, Trump’s tariffs, and shifting polling numbers.

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2. The Liberal Upheaval: From Freeland’s Exit to Carney’s Ascent

Christia Freeland's Catalyst Moment

• Freeland’s abrupt resignation as Finance Minister in December is depicted as a turning point, flipping “Canadian politics on its head” ([03:21], Katherine Cullen).
• Memorable quote:
  “If you’re Brutus, you don’t necessarily get to be Caesar.” - Katherine Cullen ([04:07])

Trudeau’s Decision to Step Down

• Trudeau’s winter reflection and resignation led to "projected 45 seats, wipeout" for Liberals before Carney’s entry ([04:08], Jayme Poisson).

Mark Carney’s Unlikely Surge

• Carney enters as "a relative political newcomer," wins the leadership race in a landslide ([04:57], CBC Announcer).
• Significant upturn in Liberal polling described as “goes up like a hockey stick” ([07:27], Jayme Poisson).

Carney's Personal Impact

• Cullen notes Carney’s “cocktail” of timing, experience, and luck:
  “There is a sense amongst some Canadians that he is the man for the moment… He was a two-time central banker as a foil to what is going on with Donald Trump.” ([05:32], Katherine Cullen)
• Standout quote:
  “If there’s not a crisis, you wouldn’t be seeing me. Honest, I am most useful in a crisis. I’m not that good at peacetime.” - Mark Carney, as cited by Katherine Cullen ([06:54])

Alternative Leadership Scenarios

• Cullen argues that LeBlanc or Freeland as leaders would have yielded very different outcomes, lacking Carney’s “change” profile ([08:41], Katherine Cullen).
• Freeland, closely tied to Trudeau and plagued by “communications problems,” would’ve struggled to connect ([08:41], Katherine Cullen).

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3. The Trump Effect & Canada’s Political Realignment

Trump’s Oversized Shadow

• Trump’s push for tariffs and annexation rhetoric shifts Canadian political blame: “a lot of that anger has turned towards Donald Trump.” ([07:55], Katherine Cullen)
• Carney’s background as a crisis-managing economist becomes a political asset: “He was able to take advantage of both being the Prime Minister and…being an economist and in many ways explaining what was happening for Canadians.” ([11:06], Jayme Poisson)

Carney’s Explanatory Power

• He frames his role as one of clarity during chaos:
  “The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday. The system of global trade anchored on the United States…is over.” - Mark Carney ([11:38])

Conservative Missteps: Trump as a Challenge

• Early campaign leaks reveal Ontario Progressive Conservative frustration with Polievre's handling of Trump ([14:22], Jamie Poisson).
• Conservatives criticized for not “getting on the Trump question in a much bigger way” ([14:49], Jamie Poisson).
• Cullen is skeptical that a sharper anti-Trump focus would have helped, pointing out ambiguity in what that would even look like ([15:07], Katherine Cullen).

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4. Pierre Poilievre, “Trumpiness,” and the Changing Conservative Brand

Trump Comparisons: Asset or Liability?

• Repeated claims that Poilievre is “mini-Trump” heard by campaigners at the doors ([17:06], Katherine Cullen). Tone, rhetorical style, and “war on woke” overlap, but Cullen draws a sharp contrast in their policy seriousness ([17:06]).

Demographic Shift

• Poilievre credited for appealing to younger voters via focus on affordability, cost of living, and housing ([19:03], Katherine Cullen).
• Analysis: "That kind of turns conventional wisdom, certainly of years past, on its head" ([19:03]).

Counterfactuals: Is a More Centrist Conservative Possible?

• Cullen questions whether a more moderate leader (e.g., Erin O’Toole) would have kept new supporters: “I don’t know if you can put the toothpaste back in the tube.” ([19:03], Katherine Cullen)

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5. Liberal Resilience and the “Change” Message

Liberal Outperformance

• Despite the anti-incumbency tide, Liberals may win a fourth mandate, “buck[ing] historical trends” ([21:00], Katherine Cullen).
• Carney and Poilievre battle over the mantle of “change”—the fundamental election issue for both.

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6. National Unity & Regional Tensions

Western Alienation and Quebec Nationalism

• Preston Manning’s warnings about Western separatist sentiment if Carney wins ([23:32], Jamie Poisson).
• Cullen: Alienation is “very real among Albertans…even those who would not…think of Western secession” ([23:55], Katherine Cullen).
• Speculation about possible Quebec alienation if Poilievre wins, especially with a surging Parti Québécois ([25:15], Katherine Cullen).

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7. What to Watch on Election Night (Predictions & Ridings)

• Nova Scotia: Will Conservatives hold or expand their three seats, or will Liberals sweep? ([26:19], Katherine Cullen)
• Quebec: Will the Bloc remain a stronghold, or will Liberals (and, to a lesser extent, Conservatives) take advantage? ([26:19], Katherine Cullen)
• Alberta: Conservative heartland, but up to 6–8 seats could shift; “Can the Liberals grow their two seats in the province?” ([26:19], Katherine Cullen)

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8. Leadership What-Ifs and Trudeau’s Legacy

• Would an earlier Trudeau departure have changed everything? “No. And I feel like I can be pretty categorical about that, because Donald Trump is… the one who shook up this big snow globe” ([28:02], Katherine Cullen).
• Final reflection: “It will…tie into Trudeau’s legacy.” ([28:24], Jamie Poisson)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you’re Brutus, you don’t necessarily get to be Caesar.” – Katherine Cullen ([04:07])
• “If there’s not a crisis, you wouldn’t be seeing me... I’m not that good at peacetime.” – Mark Carney, quoted by Cullen ([06:54])
• “I don’t know if you can put the toothpaste back in the tube.” – Katherine Cullen (re: conservative leadership direction, [19:03])
• “This is like politics too. A lot of it is gut feelings, Jamie. And I think when people just sort of feel that there’s something there, it’s kind of hard to talk them out of it.” – Katherine Cullen ([17:06])

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[28:47] Tragedy in Vancouver: Lapu Lapu Day Attack

• A black Audi SUV drove through crowds at the Filipino Canadian street festival in Vancouver, resulting in 11 deaths and dozens injured ([29:29], Jamie Poisson; [30:10], Steve Rye).
• The suspect, with a history of mental health issues and police encounters, is in custody. No terrorism motives determined ([30:48], Steve Rye).
• Reaction from leaders:
  • Jagmeet Singh: “I keep on thinking about the kids that I met, the joy. I was there literally minutes before this happened and I can’t stop thinking about… such a horrific thing happen, I keep on replaying it.” ([31:24])
  • Mark Carney: “Last night, families lost a sister, a brother, a mother, a father, a son or a daughter. Those families are living every family's nightmare.” ([31:56])
  • Pierre Poilievre: “All Canadians are united with you in mourning the loss of these treasured lives…” ([32:36])

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Final Thoughts

This thoroughly analytical and emotionally engaged episode captures the complexity of a watershed moment in Canadian politics—where leadership, foreign influence, generational change, and identity intersect. The discussion, laden with “what-ifs,” not only recaps a historic campaign but sets up a suspenseful election night, while also pausing to mourn with the Vancouver Filipino community after tragedy.

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Useful Timestamps

• 00:37 – Election campaign themes and introduction
• 02:56 – Freeland’s resignation and Liberal meltdown
• 04:49 – Carney’s entry and Liberal leadership race
• 07:26 – Carney’s polling “hockey stick”
• 11:38 – Carney’s economic messaging post-Liberation Day
• 14:46 – Conservative internal polling leaks and Trump strategy
• 17:06 – The "mini-Trump" problem for Poilievre
• 19:03 – Conservative success with young voters and internal tradeoffs
• 23:32 – Regional discontent: Western alienation and Quebec
• 26:19 – Election night: which ridings to watch
• 28:47 – Vancouver car attack coverage and community responses

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For listeners seeking a deep, nonpartisan synthesis of this pivotal Canadian election—and a sense of the broader social context—this episode serves as both a primer and a primer for election night analysis.

Transcript

[El Amin Abdul Mahmoud]

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[CBC Announcer]

This is a CBC podcast.

[Jamie Poisson]

Hey everyone, it's Jamie here. We have a conversation Today with the CBC's Katherine Cullen looking back at this extraordinary campaign on election day. But before we get into that, I want to acknowledge what is probably on so many of your minds, which is the horrific car ramming attack that happened in Vancouver at the Lapu Lapu Day block party on Saturday night. As of this recording, 11 people are confirmed dead and dozens more are injured. We've got an extra today after the interview that will go over what we know as of this recording early Sunday evening. So please stay with us for that after the interview. All right, now, my conversation with Katherine. Well, it's here Election Day. The campaign has been short, but it's been packed with plenty of drama, from annexation talk and economic chaos to stunning poll reversals to internal party blow ups. Today, my colleague, host of the house podcast Katherine Cullen is here with me. I want to spend a bit of time marveling at what an eventful several months this has been and talk about how things could have been different. We'll also get into what she's looking for tonight as the results come in. And again, I hope that you will all join us for our livestream watch party of sorts. It starts at 8pm Eastern Time tonight on CBC News YouTube page and the CBC News TikTok page. We are doing political trivia right off the top. Come play along with us. You'll also be able to see Commotions. El Amin Abdul Mahmoud and I get completely annihilated by Jeopardy champ Matea Roach. It's going to be a really good time. Plus results analysis from a bunch of front burner regulars. So again, I really do hope that you'll join us, Katherine. It's great to see you and in person too.

[Katherine Cullen]

Yeah, so nice to be here with you, Jamie.

[Jamie Poisson]

Let's do a little bit of reminiscing, shall we? I was Actually hoping to start this conversation with Christia Freeland, because a very strong case can be made that we would not be here today, and certainly not with how everything has unfolded, if she had not resigned as Finance Minister back in December.

[Christia Freeland]

On Friday, you told me you no longer want me to serve as your Finance Minister and offered me another position in the Cabinet. Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet. To be effective, a minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision. You made it clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with.

[Katherine Cullen]

With it. Was she ever the catalyst in all of this? Remember, Jamie, the Liberal Caucus had been unhappy for months, and there had been these attempts to oust Trudeau, and they had just all fallen flat. And then this incredible moment of drama. I still remember where I was. I will be an old lady in a rocking chair. I will still remember. So I was on the the bus to go to the lockup for the economic statement that we were supposed to get that day, and one of the journalists saw her tweet saying she was resigning and yelled out in French, freeland, Dem. And she's quitting. And like a gasp went up amongst all the journalists. It flipped Canadian politics on its head. She did not get rewarded, though, ultimately, let's say, for that move. Right? If you're Brutus, you don't necessarily get to be Caesar.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yes, yeah, good lesson there. All right, so freelance set this thing in motion. Is like one too many things for Trudeau to kind of fight off, fend off. Right? And he takes the Christmas holidays to think about his future. At the time, the Liberals were, like, complete, completely dead. Right? Like, we were talking projected 45 seats, wipeout, and then he resigns at the beginning of January.

[Mark Carney]

This country deserves a real choice in the next election. And it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.

[Jamie Poisson]

And then enter Mark Carney, who a relative political newcomer goes on to win the Liberal leadership race.

[CBC Announcer]

In first place, the next Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, with 131,674 votes, resulting in 29,457 allocated points, representing 85.9% of the vote.

[Jamie Poisson]

If Carney wins tonight, as the polls are projecting, and especially if he wins a majority, how much credit do you think he will get personally for this stunning change of fortunes for the Liberals?

[Katherine Cullen]

Yeah, a little bit of a cocktail here, right? And a big part of that cocktail, Jamie, is luck. I mean, Mark Carney's been flirting with politics for the better part of a decade. Personally, I, when people would bring up his name in Ottawa, I would sort of say like, wake me up when we get there. We keep hearing about this guy. Where is he? As you say, he has fully entered the chat now. And the timing, the reason we say luck is because the timing, I think is so significant right there. There is a sense amongst some Canadians that he is the man for the moment. People are really attracted to his, his cv, this idea that he was a two time central banker as a foil to what is going on with Donald Trump. I mean, he keeps talking about the fact that he's not a politician and there are things that he does that when I think about the norms in the way that politicians talk, he is breaking all the rules, right? When he does things like he says, well, I'm just going to repeat myself here. I know you've already heard me say this. And it's like, have you ever heard pure POV say that? He repeats himself 72 times in a speech because he is trying to hammer home a message and he never seems a bit sheepish about it. Mark Carney said at one point, this really stuck with me. The Globen Mail keeps using this quote over and over. He said, if there's not a crisis, you wouldn't be seeing me. Honest, I am most useful in a crisis. I'm not that good at peacetime.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay.

[Katherine Cullen]

But I think this is again, in this moment, this seems to be working for him because we've had Justin Trudeau who was very slick and polished. The person he's running against, Pierre Paliev, is again really, really focused in his political communication. So what Carney offers, the fact that it's a little bit different and the way it's fitting into this moment, the polls are suggesting that that has given him some real oomph.

[Jamie Poisson]

Of course this coincides with a lot of the 51st state stuff ramping up and in the first kind of blanket tariff announcements from Trump. But at the same time, around the end of February, that's when it became quite clear that Carney was going to run away with the liberal leadership race. But the polling is incredible. It just actually goes up like a hockey stick and then just has stayed there pretty much throughout the duration of this campaign. I know it's gone down a little.

[Katherine Cullen]

Bit, I think is everything has happened so quickly and I know, you know, some journalists or, or, or Even just regular folks might say, well, the campaign's been kind of boring. But everything as we're talking to everything in the lead up to that was anything but boring. It's like somebody took the snow globe of Canadian politics and just shook it up. All the pieces changed, people's expectations, changed the way Canadians were feeling. They had been so mad at Justin Trudeau and Justin Trudeau's government, and a lot of that anger has turned towards Donald Trump. So, you know, in comedy, they say timing is everything. That is true in politics, too. Certainly for Mark Carney, it seems it's.

[Jamie Poisson]

An interesting thought exercise to think of what might have happened if Carney hadn't put his hand up here. Right. If Christia Freeland or someone like Dominic LeBlanc had won the leadership.

[Katherine Cullen]

I think those are two very different scenarios. Again, if you think back, Liberals were, like, a significant number of Liberals were pretty devastated that LeBlanc decided not to run. He's not necessarily a huge household name across Canada, but he's very well liked in liberal circles. And I'll tell you, he's somebody who's liked across the aisle, too. But I think things. Things would have looked very different because Dominic LeBlanc was still very much associated with Justin Trudeau, and I don't think we would have seen the same kind of. Of circumstances. Carney ultimately has represented change, and I'm sure that's very frustrating for Pierre Poliev, who keeps talking about change and is pointing out, well, it's the same party, it's just a different guy at the head of it. Christy Freeland would have had an even harder time. Yeah, right. She was the original Trudeau Liberal. She's very closely associated with him. Even if she did ultimately push him off a political cliff, she also had some pretty serious communications problems. I don't think she connected with Canadians in quite the way that she would have hoped. And I think the political picture would look totally different.

[Jamie Poisson]

Also, talking about this idea of being able to project change, do you think that the relationship between Trudeau and Trump, which was clearly fraught. Right, benefited Mark Carney in the end?

[Katherine Cullen]

It's a mixed bag, eh? Because actually, I think when Canadians have felt anxious, the calm and experience that Mark Carney has tried to project has worked for him. And I do think there's an interesting question. You know, Pierre Poliev has kind of tried to insinuate that Mark Carney is taking credit for the fact that things have been calm right now, but I actually think the Liberals have been pretty careful not to do that because Donald Trump is so unpredictable. I think for Canadians, there's still a really meaningful question about how much of this animus is about Justin Trudeau. The folks around Trudeau would tell you that when those two guys were in the same room or on the phone, Trump and Trudeau, that Trump really liked him. But I think it's clear that there, you know, this Governor Trudeau thing, this belittling thing, it's very Trumpy. It is something he liked to do. And I'm. I'm incredibly curious to see how President Trump deals with whomever wins the election. I mean, both of those, you know, you wanna talk thought exercises. Both of those scenarios, Poliev and Carney, it's a really interesting set of possibilities.

[Jamie Poisson]

It struck me, you know, talking about how Carney was able to, I think, benefit from his role as Prime Minister during this campaign, it struck me that he was able to take advantage of both being the Prime Minister and acting like the Prime Minister. But also, I think key here, being an economist and in many ways explaining what was happening for Canadians. I'm thinking of when he came out and said that the world trading system as we knew it was over after Liberation Day.

[Mark Carney]

The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday. The system of global trade anchored on the United States that Canada has relied on since the end of the Second World War. War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped to deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over. Well, this is a tragedy. It is also the new reality.

[Jamie Poisson]

He was explaining to people what was happening in the world.

[Katherine Cullen]

Yeah, I think that that is true. I think also, though it is specifically being able to say, I have dealt with crises before. Right. So 2008 financial crisis. He was the governor of the bank of Canada and of course he was the. Of the bank of England during Brexit. And the Conservatives, knowing that this is a strong suit for Mark Carney, they really have tried to some extent to prosecute him on that, suggesting he's taking too much credit for the 2008 financial crisis and his role in it, that, you know, Stephen Harper and the late Jim Flaherty, who was Finance Minister at the time, that they are the ones deserving of the credit.

[Jagmeet Singh]

I say that as the guy who actually did lead Canada through the global financial crisis. I hear there's someone else claiming it was him.

[Katherine Cullen]

I've heard pure Polyev say, listen, like lots of people in the UK didn't like Mark Carney very much. He was called a unreliable boyfriend by. By one British. I believe it was a British mp, but I just don't. I think that if Pierre Polieva is going to find success, I don't think there's any evidence that that is the path for it. Right. If Pierre Pollyv is going to find success, it is going to be more by focusing on what is going on in this country. Trying to take down Carney cv. I don't think we've seen any evidence that that's resonating with people.

[CBC Announcer]

It was the dawn of a new era of space flight.

[BBC Announcer]

Our space program has reached another important milestone.

[Mark Carney]

We're going to fly this new rocket.

[CBC Announcer]

Never been flown before and we got people on it.

[Katherine Cullen]

You know that there are a lot of things that can go Wrong.

[CBC Announcer]

From the BBC World Service, 13 Minutes presents the Space Shuttle.

[BBC Announcer]

I think we've got something that's really going to mean something to the country and the world.

[CBC Announcer]

Listen on the BBC app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jamie Poisson]

Let's talk a little bit about the Conservatives not campaigning against Trudeau, but also Trump looming so large were the big things that clearly threw off the Conservatives and Pierre Paliev during this election campaign. Basically a week into the campaign, we saw internal polling data from Ontario leaked to the media from within the party and, and criticisms coming from within the.

[Katherine Cullen]

From the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. Yeah.

[Jamie Poisson]

And criticisms from people like Corey Tanik, who heads Doug Ford's campaign, that, that, that the POV campaign needed to get on the Trump question in a much bigger way. And looking back, if they do not win tonight, if the Conservatives do not win tonight, like the polls project, is that going to go down is their biggest mistake?

[Katherine Cullen]

You think I am of two minds about this. What would that look like? Like, really, truly, what would it look like for Pierre Polyev to have taken Donald Trump more seriously than he did? He has laid out a policy, you know, Canada first for a change. He kicked off the campaign with this big rally in Ottawa that was very wrapped and steeped in patriotism.

[CBC Announcer]

Only in this country could a refugee from Venezuela who started in a basement Montreal apartment and the son of a teenage mother raised by two schoolteachers dream of standing on this stage leading Canada's national founding political party.

[Katherine Cullen]

He has policies to deal with Trump. He has said, trump, back off. I'm not on your your side.

[CBC Announcer]

We have to be prepared for the worst. Simply put, we can no longer depend on the Americans alone for our trade. We can no longer think of them as our backup defense. These threats, my friends, are a wake up call. We should be the wealthiest and most self reliant economy in the world today, given our natural resources.

[Katherine Cullen]

The counter argument to that though is that there were certainly days where he was out there doing very specific announcements that were things that would have been perhaps dreamed up months ago before Donald Trump was a meaningful contributor to this campaign and that maybe on some of those days he should have been talking about Donald Trump. The, the other part of this, of course, is the criticism that some people think he's, he's too Trump. E. Yeah, but, but the pivot itself, I, I think there are some conservatives at the center of the, the Polyev campaign who throw up their hands and go like, well, what, like, what exactly are you asking for here? They tried.

[Jamie Poisson]

What did they say about the criticism that he's too Trumpy, you know, and do you think that he succeeded in reassuring voters that he is a lot different from Trump?

[Katherine Cullen]

I have talked to campaigners, candidates in different parties and in parts of the country. They are hearing over and over again at the doors that he's a mini Trump. And that is a problem for the Conservative Party. Like there's no two ways around it. And this is a complicated thing. Like Donald Trump is not a policy wonk. Come on. Pierre Pollyv is right. Like Pierre Poliev, you can like or dislike his plans for the country. He has thought seriously about them. Donald Trump's greatest political talent, if you want to call it that, is being an improviser is like kind of pulling things out of thin air sometimes that throw people off their balance and, and just allow him to sort of hold this power. That's not what pure Polyev does. Now again, if we're going to look at the other side of this though, there's no question that there's overlap in terms of like a war on woke, right. A belittling of your political opponents and journalists, a sort of tonal thing that I think people are responding to. Yes. So while I think, you know, there, there are a lot of ways in which the two are fundamentally different. I, I, this is like politics too. A lot of it is gut feelings, Jamie. And I think when people just sort of feel that there's something there, it's kind of hard to talk them out of it.

[Jamie Poisson]

The other, like historical. What if I was thinking about, and I know that the conservatives still have a ton of support, right, like they could lose the election tonight with 39% of the popular vote, which is, which is a lot and in the past has been more than enough to form a government. But on this Trumpy thing, like it seems like if the Liberals win tonight, it will be because of the collapse of the ndp, of vote shedding from the bloc. And Polly does seem to concern those voters a lot. Right? I don't know. It would just be interesting to see if the same election played out with a more centrist Conservative candidate, someone like an Aaron o', Toole, for example. Like, what would have happened then?

[Katherine Cullen]

Yeah, but like, I don't know if you can put the toothpaste back in the tube. And there are, I think, a couple of interesting things about that, the question about the ndp. So let's take that first, are those people moving just because of Donald Trump, because they want a strong government, or are they moving because they are worried that also, or specifically that where Pierre Poliev would take the country is too contrary to their views? It's sort of hard to disentangle, I think, what's going on there. And as for a more centrist candidate and what that would do to the Conservatives fortunes themselves, not so much the NDP fortunes. You have to remember Pierre Poliev, as you say, the poll suggesting he has the kind of numbers that brought the Conservatives a majority government in 2011. He has, it appears, successfully reached younger voters in a really meaningful way for the Conservative Party. That kind of turns conventional wisdom, certainly of years past on its head by this, with this laser focus of what was troubling them. Affordability and housing issues. And, and, and in some, and in some ways, I think some of those people really like that. Well, elbows up in a very different way, but that cutting tone. And so I wonder if you put someone else in their place, do some of those voters slip away? The people who maybe haven't voted before but are going to show up on election Day to vote for Pierre Poliev, do those voters disappear, too? So I just, I just think it's very hard to see how it works in real life.

[Jamie Poisson]

I mean, lots of interesting questions. It, like, raises a lot of interesting questions. So we've talked a lot about how Trump has been really a problem for Polly, but let's talk about where he succeeded in this campaign.

[Katherine Cullen]

This is the part of the campaign that predates Trump. Right. Which is this, as we were saying, the focus on cost of living, affordability. I mean, it's, it's pretty wild when you just look at the historical trends that voters would consider giving the Liberals a fourth mandate and possibly a fourth majority mandate, the sheer amount of time that the party would be governing the country, that really does buck historical trends. So where Polly Eva's had more success. It is, it is pushing on that change button. Pushing on that. What has always been the classic question in forgetting Canadian elections, just elections. Right. Which is, is your life better or worse than when these other guys started governing? And there are a lot of things, cost of living, housing. Polly of likes to talk about crime a lot. Where people instinctively feel that things are worse. There's a multitude of factors that play into this. The pandemic, you know, supply chains, you name it. But. But prosecuting the Liberals on that has been. Was a winning issue for him in the fall. And then Trump came along and mixed that up. But for a lot of, you know, what I hear from conservatives all the time is that for young people, they feel like this is a generational struggle. Right. And they feel like for young people, they still really want to hear that part of the equation. Now, Mark Carney has stuff to offer on that front, too, but Pierre Poliev has sort of made it his brand, and it does seem to be where he has been finding the political success that he has found in this campaign. We're just going to find out tonight who's whose message carried the day for more people.

[Jamie Poisson]

And certainly towards the end of the campaign, Trump receded a bit and there was more space. Yes. For those issues.

[Katherine Cullen]

And you do, like, there are places in the country where you look at the polls and it suggests there's a tightening. I mean, I think at this point, it's really hard to know people are. People are gonna step behind that little cardboard divider and they're gonna vote based on what's on their. Their minds. But it's true, Trump really has, I think, receded. And it will be interesting to see where that has left people, not only in the liberal conservative split, but I think very significantly, ndp. NDP voters who were ready to move over to Carney because of Trump, who maybe aren't feeling as threatened right now.

[Jamie Poisson]

Right.

[Katherine Cullen]

Block Kibiqua voters who are ready to move over to Carney, like, are they.

[Jamie Poisson]

Gonna go home a little bit? Yeah.

[Katherine Cullen]

Or did people actually just make up their minds three weeks ago and go, okay, I'm done with this election. I'll put the check on my ballot when there's time. Like, we, we really don't know. That's a very live question to me. And, and it, it is the one that we can only really get the answer to tonight.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. Another interesting element of the campaign that I wanted to ask you about has been this threat of Western alienation. So Preston Manning, former leader of the Reform Party, wrote this op ed saying that if Canadians elect another liberal government, Western separatist sentiment will explode. Whatever the results are tonight, how do you think this issue of national unity will play?

[Katherine Cullen]

I think it's really, it is a really interesting question. I will say, like, certainly I interviewed Preston Manning on the House. It upsets some people that like we would even have this conversation, right, because they feel like he's trying to tear the country apart or the people in Alberta who say, listen, he doesn't represent the majority of Albertans. Like, why are you giving this point of view? Airtime at the same time, I think he does represent a discontent that is very real among Albertans, even those who would not even begin to think of Western secession, who feel so not only neglected, more than neglected by the Liberal Party, but wronged on resource issues and the fact that they're not able to get more of their resources, their oil out of the ground and sold to other markets. And so I think it's important, I just think it's really important to hear each other out on this question. And so with that in mind, with the sense that hearing each other out is an important part of this, I think it's going to depend. I mean, according to Preston Manning, this is only an issue if Mark Carney wins. How effective is Mark Carney going to be both in listening to Alberta and frankly, what he's pitching, which is he says he wants more resource extraction, he wants an emphasis on a, a cleaner economy, but he's not opposed to another pipeline, for instance. So can he deliver on what he's saying? I think the flip side of that though, that you have to consider is if Pierre Poliev wins, even though support for Quebec sovereignty is not particularly high either, you can imagine a country that is polarized in a different kind of way where Quebecers see somebody who they perceive as an Albertan, because Pierre Polyva is from Alberta, obviously his writings in Ottawa, who's, who's like, bring on the resource extraction and perhaps feel a bit more alienated at a time where in Quebec the Partique Becois leader, the party that could actually initiate a referendum is popular now. Not again, not necessarily because of sovereignty. That has to do with other factors about who's running in Quebec. But I think like all could bubble up all be a really live discussion in the, in the coming years.

[Jamie Poisson]

I know that tonight you are doing a bunch of results for several provinces on the main TV special. And just give me a sense of what you are going to be looking for as results come in that would serve as signals for how the night could play out.

[Katherine Cullen]

So Nova Scotia is one of the provinces that I'm responsible for. It's going to be some of the first results that we see coming in over the course of the night. The province has 11 ridings. Three of them went Conservative last election. So the question I'm going to be asking myself, can the Conservatives hold on to those ridings? There's maybe even a world where they make a gain or two, but there is certainly also a world where the Liberals take an even greater portion of the province. In 2015, all of Nova Scotia was red. So, getting a sense of where the trends go there and whether the NDP can at least have a somewhat significant presence in the writing of Halifax proper, because that has been a seat for them in the past. Perhaps they won't win it, but if they show up, I think that's a good sign for the NDP. I am watching Quebec with its 78 ridings. Big number. You want to watch the block, right? Are they going to make their presence felt? That will have an implication for whomever forms government. Also interesting to see if things don't go well for the block. Do the Liberals scoop all of those seats up? Could the Conservatives grab a few? That's gonna matter. And finally, I'm gonna be watching Alberta. Not necessarily. Usually the most shocking province, Jamie. It is the Conservative heartland. But there are a handful of seats, observers say, you know, maybe we're talking six or eight. Where you could see some movement. Can the Liberals grow their two seats in the province? That, too, I think, will tell us an interesting part of the story of what Canada is going to decide tonight.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay. And just I want to end here kind of with where we started with, with Trudeau and his decision to step down and I guess another historical what if? Because they're kind of fun. What if he had stepped down sooner, do you think. Do you think that we would still be where we are today?

[Katherine Cullen]

No. And I feel like I can be pretty categorical about that, because Donald Trump is. Is the one who shook up this big snow globe, right? He changed the way we feel about the country and our sovereignty. And I just think the picture would look different, you know, would the results be different? Who knows? But the trajectory, the political path we've been on, there's. There's no way it's the same if we're doing all of this in the. In the fall.

[Jamie Poisson]

And it's so interesting, too, because it will, like, tie into Trudeau's legacy. And anyways, I love chatting about this stuff. Catherine, thank you very much.

[Katherine Cullen]

Let's do it again sometime.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay? So here is what we know so far about what happened in Vancouver on Saturday night. This was the second annual Lapu Lapu Day block party, a street festival to celebrate the Filipino Canadian community with music shows and food. And it was a joyous event. Organizers estimate around 100,000 people showed up throughout Saturday. It was just after 8pm soon after the headliners had performed and things were winding down that the suspect drove a black Audi SUV through the crowds. Chris Pangolin, a vendor at the festival, told CBC that he watched the driver slowly pick up speed and then slam on the gas.

[BBC Announcer]

It was like seeing a bowling ball hit all the bowling pins and all the pins go flying up in the air. There were bodies that were just flying up and you just see them twisted in so many different ways and it just kept going and going and going. People were screaming and trying to run away.

[Jamie Poisson]

Community members grabbed the suspect and held him until police arrived. As of this recording, 11 people are confirmed dead, including a five year old. Police say dozens more are injured and that the death toll may rise in the coming days. The suspect, a 30 year old man, is now in custody.

[Steve Rye]

This is the darkest day in our city's history. Last night, as thousands of members of Vancouver's Filipino community gathered for an important cultural celebration, the actions of a single person shattered our collective sense of safety.

[Jamie Poisson]

Interim Vancouver Police Chief Steve Rye hasn't released many details on the suspect, but said that he has previously had significant interactions with police due to mental health related issues. While many have questioned whether the man deliberately targeted the Filipino community, Rye said police do not believe that his motives included terrorism.

[Steve Rye]

So for terrorism there should be some political, religious ideology ideation behind it. There's no indicators that this individual had that and obviously the history we have with him leads towards that. There wasn't any other indicators.

[Jamie Poisson]

Political leaders adjusted their last day of campaigning in light of the attack. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who had been at the Lapu Lapu festival just before the attack, canceled the several campaign events for Sunday and returned to Vancouver. He was visibly emotional at a presser in Penticton.

[Jagmeet Singh]

I keep on thinking about the kids that I met, the joy. I was there literally minutes before this happened and I can't stop thinking about how much happiness was there, how much it was a family event. People were so positive and so joyful and then. And to have such a horrific thing happen, I keep on replaying it.

[Jamie Poisson]

Liberal leader Mark Carney also canceled several campaign rallies. As of this recording, he was expected to be in Vancouver Sunday evening.

[Mark Carney]

Last night, families lost a sister, a brother, a mother, a father, a son or a daughter. Those families are living every family's nightmare. And to them, and to the many others who were injured, to the Filipino Canadian community and to everyone in the broader lower mainland Vancouver, I would like to offer my deepest condolences and my wishes for strength and compassion in this tragic time. I know that I joined.

[Jamie Poisson]

Conservative leader Pierre Poliev spoke on Sunday morning in a Filipino church in Mississauga.

[CBC Announcer]

All Canadians are united with you in mourning the loss of these treasured lives and in binding our country together to support the surviving loved ones.

[Jamie Poisson]

In the meantime, the Filipino community in Vancouver is in mourning.

[Mabel Elmore]

We are collectively shattered, but we are coming together as a community.

[Jamie Poisson]

Mabel Elmore, a BCMLA and Filipino Canadian, choked up at a press conference about the tragedy.

[Mabel Elmore]

We are in incredible pain. The Filipino community will show true resilience and we will come together out of this catastrophe with the support and the love from the broad community. From all of you in the public.

[Jamie Poisson]

Victim services are available 247 in 240 languages through the B.C. government. For witnesses or anyone else who experience trauma as a result of this attack, you can go to victimlinkbc, ca or call 1-800-563-08. All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Please take care and we'll talk to you tomorrow.

[CBC Announcer]

For more CBC Podcasts, go to CBC CA Podcasts.