Front Burner — The World’s Biggest Risks, with Gerry Butts

Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guest: Gerry Butts, Vice Chairman of Eurasia Group

Overview

This episode of Front Burner explores the Eurasia Group’s Top 10 Global Risks for 2026 with Gerry Butts, focusing notably on the top risk: “U.S. Political Revolution.” The conversation delves into what this means for global stability, why Canada is particularly at risk from U.S. political upheaval, the vulnerability of the USMCA trade agreement, and the precarious future of NATO. As a prominent Canadian policy advisor and political risk expert, Butts offers both broad historical context and practical insight for Canadian listeners navigating an unstable international landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Political Revolution as the Top Global Risk

• Historical Shift in Risk:
  • Eurasia Group traditionally advised on political risks outside the U.S., but now the U.S. itself has become the world’s “most important generator” of geopolitical risk, not a shock absorber.
    • Quote:
      • “For most of our lives, the United States has been the world’s most significant shock absorber of geopolitical risk, and it is now probably the world’s most important generator of it.” – Gerry Butts (03:19)
• Why Call It a ‘Revolution’?
  • Butts situates the U.S. today alongside upheavals like China’s post-Mao reforms and the collapse of the Soviet Union, suggesting this is a transformative and highly uncertain period in American history.
    • Quote:
      • “We think that what’s going on in the United States now ... ascends to that kind of historical importance.” – Gerry Butts (05:02)
• Open Outcome – Not All Revolutions Succeed:
  • Eurasia Group believes this revolution is unlikely to be successful, but emphasizes the pace and unpredictability of change:
    • “You never like to underestimate the resilience of the United States and its institutions...” – Gerry Butts (05:41)
    • “Things can change really, really quickly...The Soviet Union dissolved at Christmas time.” – Gerry Butts (06:14)

2. Why U.S. Institutions May Not Restrain Trump

• Midterms Are Not a Guardrail:
  • Jayme notes the report’s skepticism of midterm elections constraining Trump; Butts agrees, explaining that Trump is willing to do “whatever it takes” to hold power.
    • Quote:
      • “For him, holding on to power, either directly or through his surrogates, is literally a matter of life and death for him and his family.” – Gerry Butts (08:26)
      • “This is not what’s gonna happen with Donald Trump. He will double down.” – Gerry Butts (09:00)

3. The ‘Genie Out of the Bottle’—What’s Irrevocably Changed

• Structural Party Changes:
  • Even after Trump, the dynamics of Republican leadership selection now favor more radical, MAGA-style candidates.
    • “...the change in American politics...will inevitably privilege the person who is perceived to be more of a MAGA candidate.” – Gerry Butts (10:19)

Canada in the Crosshairs

4. Canada as the Most Impacted Country After the U.S.

• Geopolitical Reality:
  • “The central geopolitical fact in Canadian life...has been that 9,000 kilometer border with the United States. It is definitional to who we are...” – Gerry Butts (12:10)
• Historical Pattern:
  • Canadians have regularly voted for parties calling for distance from the U.S. – except during the era of growing economic integration post-1988 free trade.
• Era of Reintegration Over:
  • “The America we grew up with is dead and we’re going to have to govern ourselves accordingly.” – Gerry Butts (14:50)
  • Canada must relearn how to navigate a less integrated, less friendly U.S.

The USMCA & ‘Zombie’ Trade Agreements

5. Zombie USMCA: The Erosion of Regional Trade Stability

• Definition:
  • “An agreement that still exists on paper but is unenforceable for all practical purposes.” – Gerry Butts (15:24)
• Core Issue:
  • Chapter 19 (third-party dispute resolution) is unlikely to survive; Trump is expected to push for terms unacceptable to Canada and Mexico.
• Likely Outcome:
  • USMCA may drift into “annual extensions” – prolonging uncertainty for North American investment and business.
    • “The most likely outcome...is one where the current agreement is extended on an annual basis. And the investment climate...is much more uncertain...” – Gerry Butts (16:56)

6. How Trump Will Apply Pressure on Canada

• Methods:
  • Bellicose threats, sowing “pro-American activity” within Canada, and maneuvering for concessions.
• Prediction:
  • “Be on your lookout for American intervention in Canadian politics this year.” – Gerry Butts (17:56)

Canadian Strategy: Navigating the Storm

7. Is ‘Not Rocking the Boat’ the Right Approach?

• Defensive Posture:
  • Mark Carney’s approach (“elbows up”) is a defensive, not offensive, stance.
    • “All of your listeners who know hockey will know that’s the way you protect yourself.” – Gerry Butts (18:51)
• ‘Cards to Play’:
  • Canada still matters in sectors like energy, aluminum, and steel. Most importantly, its reputation as a constructive ally will matter in the long run.
    • “Having been a constructive neighbor...is the most important card we have to play.” – Gerry Butts (22:13)
• Don’t Sacrifice Values for Short-Term Gains:
  • “Don’t trade our values for what we think will be but almost always turn out to be illusory short term advantages.” – Gerry Butts (23:37)

The Future of NATO

8. Upholding Rules and Supporting Allies

• Greenland Example:
  • Canada stands with Denmark against potential U.S. intervention in Greenland, emphasizing sovereignty and the rules-based order.
    • Quote:
      • “If we agree to behave as if we live in a world where sovereignty is only for big powerful countries, then we’ve already lost.” – Gerry Butts (24:39)
    • “If a NATO state is threatened...to the point where their sovereignty is compromised, then that’s the moment at which NATO ceases to exist.” – Gerry Butts (26:09)
• Existential Stakes:
  • If the U.S. acts against a NATO ally and NATO countries don’t respond, NATO effectively ends. The goal, Butts stresses, is to avoid reaching that point.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On American Political Upheaval:
  • “Right now, those [better] angels ain’t winning.” – Gerry Butts (06:48)
• On the New Reality for Canada-U.S. Relations:
  • “The old relationship...is over.” – Gerry Butts (14:55)
• On Resilience & Unpredictability:
  • “Things can change really, really quickly.” – Gerry Butts (06:18)
• On Maintaining Canadian Values:
  • “The most important thing we can do as Canadians is to keep our heads and to remain ourselves...” – Gerry Butts (23:19)
• On Standing Up for Smaller Allies:
  • “If we agree to behave as if we live in a world where sovereignty is only for big powerful countries, then we’ve already lost.” – Gerry Butts (24:39)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening – Setting up the risks discussion: 00:46–01:47
• US Political Revolution – nature and impact: 01:50–05:38
• On Trump’s potential strategy and the failure of traditional guardrails: 06:56–09:30
• The structural MAGA shift in the GOP: 09:30–10:50
• Canada’s vulnerability and need to adapt: 10:50–15:01
• Zombie USMCA explained: 15:01–17:10
• Predicted U.S. tactics toward Canada: 17:10–18:17
• Carney’s strategy and Canada’s “cards”: 18:17–23:41
• NATO, Greenland, and rules-based order: 23:41–27:39

Conclusion

Jayme Poisson and Gerry Butts provide a sobering, historically informed discussion of the dramatic risks facing the world in 2026—above all, from within the United States itself. Butts lays out the implications for Canada with candor and context, emphasizing the need for prudence, principle, and the preservation of Canadian values amid geopolitical upheaval. The advice is clear: stay alert, stay true, and prepare for a world in which old certainties are dissolving.