Front Burner – "Ukraine peace plan, or Russian ‘wish list’?"

Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Jamie Poisson
Guest: Francis Farrell, Reporter, Kyiv Independent

Episode Overview

This episode dissects the controversial US-brokered peace plan for the war in Ukraine, critiqued as a “Russian wish list.” Host Jamie Poisson speaks with Ukraine correspondent Francis Farrell to unravel why this plan triggered outrage in Ukraine, skepticism in Europe, and the latest political and battlefield developments impacting Zelenskyy’s government.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The American-Brokered Peace Plan: Origins and Content

• Leaked 28-point Plan:

  • Required Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, limit its military, abandon NATO ambitions.
  • Blanket amnesty for war crimes, reintegration of Russia into global economy and G8, dropping sanctions.

    “It included demands that Ukraine cede territory to Russia, limit the size of their military and permanently abandon efforts to join NATO... concessions like blanket amnesty for any war crimes committed, as well as a commitment to allow Russia to reintegrate back into the global economy.” (Jamie Poisson, 02:08)

• Authorship and Secret Negotiations:

  • Plan crafted by American envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

  • Witkoff reportedly more representative of Russian interests, advising Russians on US response.

    “Witkoff... more representative of the Russian side than the American side at this point, because he was advising another high foreign policy official, Yuri Ushakov, about how to best formulate this plan together so that Trump will be on board with it.” (Francis Farrell, 02:39)

2. Ukrainian Response: Fears of Capitulation

• Severe Alarm in Ukraine:

  • Ukrainians woke up to the seriousness of potentially having to accept a plan amounting to capitulation.

  • Main outrage: required outright ceding of currently Ukrainian-controlled territory (not just freezing frontlines), and no meaningful security guarantees.

    “That was when I think the whole country just kind of woke up for a second and thought, you know, is, is it possible? Could we be on the brink of signing this... equivalent to, to capitulation.” (Francis Farrell, 05:01)

    “The biggest one of course, is the handing over of new territory. Not even the kind of understanding that... we freeze the front lines... but actually the handing over of new territory in Donetsk region, which is still inhabited by hundreds of thousands...” (Francis Farrell, 05:52)

3. Trump’s Role and Perspective

• Trump’s Motivation:

  • Seeks quick end to war, pressured Zelenskyy to accept, suggested US aid/intelligence would be cut if rejected.

  • Doesn’t grasp, or disregards, the core issue of Russian aggression.

    “He just doesn't seem to understand... this war... is a war of aggression, a war of conquest... And he's been very tempted by the idea that... if we pressure Ukraine, then they might be able to [agree].” (Francis Farrell, 07:51–09:05)

    “The Nobel Prize, which he can brag about... consistently has been undone by Ukraine saying, no, we're actually not interested in capitulation.” (Francis Farrell, 09:21)

4. European and International Pushback

• Europe Scrambles to Respond:

  • Britain, France, Germany coordinate a counter-proposal after being sidelined.

  • 36-country "coalition of the willing" urges US to maintain pressure on Russia, not Ukraine.

  • European leaders frustrated at their marginalization but also criticized for not being fully invested in Ukraine's defense (e.g., no boots on the ground, reluctance to release seized Russian assets).

    “European leaders... understand that this is not a workable deal for the future security of Ukraine and they are on the same continent now.” (Francis Farrell, 11:01)

    “But that’s one area where I would actually push back... they don’t really have the right to be involved. So long as they’re not making the defense of Ukraine their own defense... they cannot even agree to release the seized Russian assets…” (Francis Farrell, 13:02)

5. Negotiation Updates and Russia’s Latest Position

• Current Status:

  • Geneva talks have narrowed demands from 28 to ~19–20 points.

  • The most extreme terms are likely gone, but fundamental impasse remains.

    “The US has, has kind of moved away from that 28 point peace plan which included those capitulatory terms... But does that make us any closer to peace? It does not.” (Francis Farrell, 15:54)

  • Putin’s Stance:

    • Dismissive of peace attempts; insists Ukrainian troops withdraw from all contested territory as non-negotiable precondition.

    “No, the withdrawal of Donbas is our non-negotiable term... we would negotiate with Ukraine... but we can’t because they’re not legitimate.” (Francis Farrell, 17:45)

    • Farrell skeptical that even the Russian-drafted plan would have satisfied Putin.

6. The Battlefield and Internal Ukrainian Strains

• Military Situation:

  • Russia is advancing incrementally; Ukraine's army is overstretched and suffering manpower shortages, but still holding key lines.

  • Use of drones by both sides has made major breakthroughs difficult.

    “The military is quite overstretched, but it has been fighting in that kind of state for quite a while and still holding the line.” (Francis Farrell, 23:03)

• Corruption Scandal:

  • Scandal in Ukraine’s energy sector triggered resignations; damaging for Zelenskyy amid the existential fight.

  • Yet, the vigorous investigation is also seen as a sign of ongoing reform efforts.

    “This is, is really damaging to, to Zelenskyy's legitimacy ... the basic state of the game remains very clear ... that this is an existential fight and the state needs to be strong.” (Francis Farrell, 25:44)

7. Russian Domestic Factors

• Pressure on Putin:

  • Sanctions have not collapsed the Russian economy; domestic resistance remains minimal due to totalitarian control.

  • War continued largely through volunteer soldiers lured by large bonuses; a forced broader mobilization remains a political risk for Putin.

    “We don’t see any internal resistance... If the recruit rates really, really start dropping, will Putin go for a larger forced mobilization round? He clearly is very reluctant to do that... But... I don’t think he should be worried.” (Francis Farrell, 20:21–22:36)

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On the US Peace Proposal’s Origins:

  “We understand now through a bunch of leaked reports that it was very clearly concocted by American envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, together with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.” (Francis Farrell, 02:39)

• On Ukrainian Outrage:

  “The biggest [issue], of course, is the handing over of new territory... together with all of what that means.” (Francis Farrell, 05:52)

• On European Reluctance:

  “They consistently refuse to consider things like the Skyshield initiative to defend Ukraine’s airspace... they cannot even agree to release the seized Russian assets...” (Francis Farrell, 13:02)

• On Putin’s Mentality:

  “He feels like he’s winning and he feels like there’s no reason to stop for less.” (Francis Farrell, 19:56)

• On the Nature of the Conflict:

  “Despite any internal problems, despite a difficult situation on the front line and even despite this corruption scandal, the basic state of the game remains very clear... that this is an existential fight and the state needs to be strong.” (Francis Farrell, 25:44)

Important Timestamps

• [00:45] – Show intro
• [01:11] – Summary of the leaked US peace proposal and Zelensky’s response
• [02:39] – Plan’s origins between US-Russia envoys
• [05:01] – Reaction in Ukraine to prospect of capitulation
• [07:12] – Trump's motivation for pressuring Zelenskyy
• [11:01] – European response and exclusion from talks
• [15:54] – Geneva talks, state of negotiations, and US internal divisions
• [17:45] – Putin’s public rejection of even watered-down terms
• [20:21] – Putin’s domestic position and Russian manpower
• [23:03] – Ukraine’s battlefield and internal woes
• [25:44] – The impact of corruption scandal in wartime

Takeaways

• The “peace plan” is viewed in Ukraine as a Russian-driven attempt at forced capitulation, and only marginally more palatable after European intervention.
• Trump’s handling is informed more by impatience and desire for a quick win than deep understanding of the war.
• Russia, feeling militarily and politically strong, has scant incentive to compromise.
• Europe’s criticism of US leadership is undermined by its own reluctance for deeper involvement.
• Ukraine remains trapped between military exhaustion, internal corruption crises, and the existential threat posed by continued Russian aggression.

Summary crafted to reflect the tone, depth, and urgency of the original episode, focusing on the content-rich discussion and omitting advertisements and peripheral segments.