Jamie Poisson (2:08)

Okay, so let's start with the 28 point plan from the Americans that leaked last week. It included demands that Ukraine cede territory to Russia, limit the size of their military and permanently abandon efforts to join NATO. There were also concessions like blanket amnesty for any war crimes committed, as well as a commitment to allow Russia to reintegrate back into the global economy through lifting sanctions and folding the federation back into the G8. And how did this proposal land in Ukraine?

Francis Farrell (2:39)

Yeah, so a lot to unpack here, I think, and we can get into this later, but I think it's first important to talk about the circumstances in which this plan was originally crafted. We understand now through a bunch of leaked reports that it was very clearly concocted by American envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, together with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. And we know more and more, especially now that there have been these tapes leaked by Bloomberg, that it was a product of these two men, you know, the. And, and we're joking now about Witkoff, you know, being also more representative of, of the Russian side than the American side at this point because he was advising another high foreign policy official, Yuri Ushakov, about how to best formulate this plan together so that Trump will be on board with it.

CBC Announcer (3:45)

Here's what I think would be amazing. Witkoff says before describing what Putin should say on a call with Trump. Just reiterate that you congratulate the president on the Middle east peace deal. Putin's official calls.

Francis Farrell (3:57)

Witkoff, my friend, and, you know, Trump has brushed that off and he said that's not, that's not part of, that's not a problem for Witkoff to be doing something like that.

Unidentified Guest/Commentator (4:09)

I haven't heard it, but I heard it was standard negotiation. That's what a deal maker does.

Francis Farrell (4:15)

But in reality, this should be understood better as, as a Russian plan. And then, of course, Trump did get on board with that and very quickly decided to put a lot of pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to, to accept it. Which is why we saw, and this is not the first time, you know, we've seen Russian maximalist demands packaged as a, as a peace plan that attempts to make a compromise. But it was the, you know, you correctly start with Zelenskyy's address. It was the first time that we hear from the Ukrainian side that, that they could be seriously considering it. He was talking about either difficult 28.

CBC Announcer (4:58)

Points or an extremely harsh winter, the.

Francis Farrell (5:01)

Hardest and further risks, life without freedom, without dignity, without justice. And so that was when I think the whole country just kind of woke up for a second and thought, you know, is, is it possible? Could we be on the brink of signing this, this plan, which, you know, in many ways was equivalent to, to capitulation.

CBC Announcer (5:26)

The Ukrainian president was careful not to denounce the plan when he met top Pentagon officials in Kyiv on Thursday night. Volodymyr Zelenskyy cannot afford to anger a US President he has irritated before and who is often described as impatient to end the war. Best regards to President Trump, Please, from me, our team, we are very thankful to him and to the United States, your nation.

Francis Farrell (5:52)

To get to your actual question, what is it that outrages Ukrainians so much about this? The biggest one of course, is the handing over of new territory. Not even the kind of understanding that, okay, we freeze the front lines and for now this is going to be a demilitarized zone and Russia will hold on to what it's conquered, but actually the handing over of new territory in Donetsk region, which is still inhabited by hundreds of thousands, over 200,000 Ukrainians into Russian occupation, together with all of what that means. And then on top of that, we have the question of a limit on the size of the Ukrainian military and of course, nothing looking like any hard security guarantee, apart from just a few points on a piece of paper which has never got in the way of Russian aggression before.

Jamie Poisson (7:12)

What's your read on why Trump got got on board with this and then turned the screws on Zelensky?

Francis Farrell (7:21)

I think Trump's clearly frustrated. He's, he's, he's kind of vented his frustration throughout the, the year.

Unidentified Guest/Commentator (7:29)

He'll have to like it. And if he doesn't like it, then, you know, they should just keep fighting, I guess.

Paige Desorbo (7:33)

You know, the suggestion that he made.

Francis Farrell (7:35)

Though, was that if he doesn't accept.

Paige Desorbo (7:37)

Accept it, that the US Would pull.

Hannah Berner (7:38)

Back its support for Ukraine.

Unidentified Guest/Commentator (7:40)

Well, at some point he's going to have to accept something, you know, he hasn't accepted. You remember, right, in the Oval Office not so long ago, I said, you don't have the cards.

Francis Farrell (7:51)

He just doesn't seem to understand, I think the very key core aspect of this war, which is that it is a war of aggression, a war of conquest, which Russia, Russia started and they still want a lot more of Ukraine and are not really keen on, on stopping. And in that view, I think at several different occasions, he's been very tempted by the idea, well, okay, we're making Russia stop through, you know, extra pressure, billions of dollars of aid, sanctions. You know, it's not something he can be really bothered to do. And, and he kind of more speaks the language of the dictator. He's talked of his pleasant relationship with Vladimir Putin and he's not really had the, had the will to do that. And instead he's been very tempted by the idea that, well, instead, how about we just pressure Ukraine? I mean, they don't want to just agree on their own. Well, if we pressure Ukraine, then they might be able to. Well, that, that, that's, that might be the way we can get a quick peace.

CBC Announcer (9:05)

Amongst its 28 points are many President Zelenskyy's rejected in the past, including Ukraine, giving up the last parts of the eastern Donbas region. It still controls cutting the size of the armed forces and ruling out membership of the NATO military alliance.

Francis Farrell (9:21)

Russia's demands are not. They just want this bit of land. I don't really know what that bit of land really is, but that doesn't seem unreasonable. You know, it's the, unfortunately, the study of, of this kind of devolves to the study of, of Trump's mind and his psychology. And I'm not a professional Trumpologist, but just from what we can see, that seems to be the understanding, the temptation of the quick piece, the Nobel Prize, which he can brag about. And consistently that has been undone by Ukraine saying, no, we're actually not interested in capitulation and we do have retained the right to keep fighting and we do retain the ability to keep fighting, even though the battlefield is, of course, really, really tough at the moment.

Jamie Poisson (10:10)

Yep. Though it did clearly elicit panic in Ukraine, but also in Europe. Right. Leading Britain, France and Germany to help put forward this counter proposal over the weekend.

CBC Announcer (10:26)

Europe has largely been sidelined in these discussions. On Tuesday, 36 countries, including Canada, met virtually as part of the so called coalition of the will and implored the US to intensify the pressure on Russia. And it's only if Russia believes we're serious to responding to any violation that this will underpin a lasting peace.

Jamie Poisson (10:50)

It was kind of this frenzy of talks. Right. And how would you describe how Europe reacted here and, and Ukraine and how they push back?

Francis Farrell (11:01)

Well, I think once again, we could tell how serious it was from that address from Zelensky. And I think one thing that has been kind of glossed over here very often in the discourse is first the leaks and then Trump's own very honest confirmation that Zelensky was being threatened with a cutoff of American aid and intelligence to Ukraine, which of course Ukraine has lessened its dependence on, on US Aid because there haven't been any new packages being sponsored. And now, and now it's more European countries who are paying for these U.S. weapons. But, you know, on the tactical level, Ukraine is, is mostly relying on domestically made drones. But still, I mean, that combined with, with the intelligence support, which is much more difficult to quantify, that was the real, like, tight the screws. That was the real threat. And, and that was, I think, the thing that made Zelensky and, and Europe really like, take this so seriously. And, you know, that that's on the, on the Ukrainian side, I think. On the European side, of course, European leaders, including, you know, Prime Minister Starmer, President Macron, Chancellor Merzk, Prime Minister Tusk of, of Poland, they all understand you that this is not a workable deal for the future security of Ukraine and they are on the same continent now.

CBC Announcer (12:44)

We all want a just and lasting peace. That's what the President of America wants. That's what we all want. And so we need to work from where we are to that end. But the principle that Ukraine must determine its future under its sovereignty is a fundamental principle.

Francis Farrell (13:02)

And they are complaining about kind of not being involved in the negotiation process. But that's one area where I would actually push back and say, well, they don't really have the right to be involved. So long as they're not making the defense of Ukraine their own defense, they're not making this war their own. They consistently refuse to consider things like the Skyshield initiative to defend Ukraine's airspace, to deploy some non combat boots on the ground. And they, they cannot even agree to release the seized Russian assets that they have in their banks. And so as long as they're, you know, helping but still not really going all in to the defense of Ukraine, Russia is free to, to move forward and, and you know, apply the, the pressure through Trump however it wants to.

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Jamie Poisson (15:21)

The Americans and the Ukrainians have been talking this week in Geneva and reports say that they have kind of whittled down that original so called Russian wish list 28 point plan to 19 or 20 points. And do we have a sense of kind of where we are at this moment and like what that whittled down plan looks like? I know both sides have kind of expressed some optimism, but who knows if that's real or not.

Francis Farrell (15:54)

Well, I mean, optimism about peace and modifications to this draft plan, those are different things. I think Europe and Ukraine are breathing a sigh of relief because the US has, has kind of moved away from that 28 point peace plan which included those capitulatory terms. And, and so I think now the US Is on board with that. But it's also worth remembering, like what us are we talking about? Are we talking about Witkoff who concocted the plan together with the Russians and sold it to Trump, or are we talking about the actual State Department and foreign policy establishment and the other members of this delegation led by Rubio who with all his faults is a more traditional Republican who does us Understand the core of this war. And so that's all well and good to basically move Trump away from this position of capitulate or I'll cut you off, but does that make us any closer to peace? It does not. Because just today we've had Putin come out and basically laugh off these new attempts.

CBC Announcer (17:17)

In general, we agree that the U. S Backed peace plan can be used as a basis for future agreements, but it would be impolite on my part to speak about any final versions because there are none. Ukrainian troops must withdraw from the territories they hold and then the fighting can cease. If they don't leave, then we shall achieve this by armed means, basically saying.

Francis Farrell (17:45)

That no, the withdrawal of Donbas is our non negotiable from Donbass. Sorry, is our non negotiable term. And you know, we would negotiate with Ukraine. He said in, in just a press conference today, but we can't because they're not legitimate. The Ukrainian leadership is not a legitimate leadership. And that's. He, he's trying to play off the idea that there haven't been elections in Ukraine. So he's just basically spitting on this whole, whole plan. I personally don't think he would have agreed to the initial one that was negotiated by his own envoys.

Jamie Poisson (18:22)

Why?

Francis Farrell (18:22)

Because I think what's most important to understand about this whole process is it's not the existence of a plan or a deal on the table or negotiations that is important. It is simply the balance of power between the two sides. And Russia launched this war with an attack on Kyiv, with an attempt to completely end a sovereign Ukrainian state. And for now they are Steadily advancing on the battlefield. They're not achieving breakthroughs, but they are steadily advancing. There are a lot of mounting problems for the Ukrainian military, which is overstretched, but still the only thing in the way of the most maximalist, territorial kind of achievements that Putin might hope for. You know, if they collapse tomorrow, then there won't be much stopping him from taking in Kiev, Odessa, as much of the country as he might want. And so feeling the wind in his sails and understanding that reluctance to stopping his war has not led to major consequences from the American side. Apart from a few sanctions which were quite randomly slapped on a few months ago.

Unidentified Guest/Commentator (19:45)

These are tremendous sanctions. These are very big. Those are against their too big oil companies. And we hope that they won't be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled.

Francis Farrell (19:56)

He feels like he, he's winning and he feels like there's no reason to stop for less.

Jamie Poisson (20:03)

Is he facing any kind of pressure at home to end the war? You know, I know we've talked on the show before about the economy there and the strain that is under. Young men are just dying in very large numbers.

Francis Farrell (20:21)

Yeah, I mean it's, it's the ultimate question which you rightly ask because the war doesn't stop until Russia decides that it's had enough. And this comes down to, to one man at the very top of, of the Russian power vertical. So it's, it's, it's always going to be his decision. Even if things at home are looking worse and worse. It's, he, he can continue and that might cause other problems, but of a dictator which has established complete totalitarian control. And so we don't see any internal resistance, you know, things could change if the economic situation gets a lot worse. But for now, you know, and if that starts to really affect the living standards of Russians. But for now, you know, everyone loves to predict that the Russian economy is just a few months away from collapsing, but that never ends up happening. And in the meantime, the most important real variable about whether Putin can continue this war is manpower. And on the whole Russian, the Russian army is still being replenished by volunteer contract soldiers. Those ordinary Russians who see who are attracted by the huge sign up bonuses and the very generous salaries, who continue signing up despite it being pretty obvious that it's by now that it tends to be a one way trip. It's an interesting question. If the recruit rates really, really start dropping, will Putin go for a larger forced mobilization round? He clearly is very reluctant to do that. And that might be the turning Point where he's decided he's had enough and is ready to stop the war. But, but of course, as a totalitarian dictator, I don't think he should be worried. I think he could do it without any issue domestically.

Jamie Poisson (22:36)

I know, of course, a majority of Ukrainians want to see an end to this terrible war, but not with those kind of capitulations to, To Russia. But what is the situation that, that the country and Zelensky is in right now? I know he's in the midst of this corruption scandal involving $100 million in the country's energy sector. Is that playing into the vice that he's kind of in at the moment, or.

Francis Farrell (23:03)

Yeah, so it's a, It's a really tough question about where, what state the country's in. Obviously, there are a lot of huge, huge strains on the country, which is understandable given its situation along the front line. There has been more dynamic, I would say, Russian movement in the past few months. We obviously know about the city of Pokrovsk, which at this point is probably mostly overrun by Russian soldiers in the eastern Donetsk region, and the neighboring city of Myrnohrad, which is under an extreme threat of, of encirclement. And in another part of the front line, we did see Russian gains at a rate much higher than usual. On the other hand, Russia has tried, despite feeling like they have the advantage, they've tried for a long time to actually achieve some kind of operational breakthrough, and they have failed to do that because the battlefield is so saturated with drones on both sides that any attempt to really pierce through the Ukrainian defense with tanks or armored vehicles is ended very, very quickly. But of course, overall, Ukraine is suffering a chronic command power crisis. We do have high rates of AWOL and sometimes desertion, and the military is quite overstretched, but it has been fighting in that kind of state for quite a while and still holding the line. Meanwhile, Dom, there are economic issues, there are budgetary issues, there's the internal pressure from mobilization, which is, you know, it's necessary for the country's survival, but it is quite painful on an individual and social level to have that continue. And then, you know, things are really not at all helped by this corruption scandal. You know, it's fair enough to point to that. And it's just a really, just a little bit depressing kind of episode in the country's wartime history.

CBC Announcer (25:19)

Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling for the country's justice Minister and energy minister to be dismissed. Shortly after they both resigned. It's all because the country's anti corruption Police allege a $100 million US kickback scheme from state energy firms. Zelensky calling for maximum transparency. Among the suspects, a former business associate of his.

Francis Farrell (25:44)

Corruption, including, you know, from the, from petty corruption to the very top has always been a problem, a systemic kind of disease in Ukraine, which they have been working on for a long time, especially since the revolution in 2014 and the establishment of these independent organizations, which, you know, thankfully are the ones who have now investigated this corruption scheme. So one hand, the fact that, you know, this, this is, is even investigated and the fact that this is brought to light and is causing so much uproar, that is in a sense, a little victory for Ukraine. But in the wartime context, there is no doubt that, that this is, is really damaging to, to Zelenskyy's legitimacy. But having said that, it's also worth seeing, you know, how the last week or so's events with all the PE affected that because, you know, despite any internal problems, despite a difficult situation on the front line and even despite this corruption scandal, the basic state of the game remains very clear to Ukrainians, to the vast majority of Ukrainians, that this is an existential fight and the state needs to be strong.

Jamie Poisson (27:11)

Okay, feels like that's a pretty good place for us to end the conversation today. Francis, as always, thank you so much.

Francis Farrell (27:19)

Thanks, Jamie. Always good to be here.

Jamie Poisson (27:28)

All right, that was all for today. Front Burner was produced this week by Shannon Higgins, Matthew Amha, Lauren Donovan, Karen Oudshorn and MacKenzie Cameron. Our YouTube producer is John Lee. Our music is by Joseph Chabasin. Our senior producer is Elaine Chao. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe Locos and I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk to you all on Monday.

CBC Announcer (28:01)

For more cbc podcasts, go to cbc ca podcasts.